Baseball

Series Preview – Mariners vs. Cubs: It Could Not Be Any Simpler, Luanne

By Sam Fels 1429 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mariners 58-80   Cubs 73-63

GAMETIMES: Monday 1:20, Tuesday 7:05

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday

FRANCES FARMER: Lookout Landing

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Mariners Spotlight

If the Cubs actually plan on recovering from their weekend-long attack of the hiccups against the Brewers, you couldn’t ask for better fodder than two games with the Seattle Mariners. There is no such thing as the free spot on the bingo card in baseball, but this is just about as close as it gets.

The Mariners gave their soaked and jaded fans a cheap thrill to start the season, when they started 13-2 behind an avalanche of home runs. As you can see, they’e 45-78 since. And this was always the way it was supposed to be, as the Mariners had long ago signaled their intention to rebuild by punting Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano to Queens. Other trades like Jean Segura to Philadelphia, James Paxton to the Bronx before the season, and Edwin Encarnacion as well to the Yankees midseason were just more of an indication what the plan was in Seattle. And now they’re at the bottom part of the cycle, which is the ugly part of the plan but the plan nonetheless.

Offensively, this is still a team that can jump up and bite you if you’re not paying attention. And you have the flu. And you’re blindfolded. And someone cut a beer fart right in front of you. Kyle Seager has been good when healthy, which has only been about half the time. Dan Vogelbach, who will be force-fit into first base for at least one of these games so get your Benny Hill theme ready, can put one onto Sheffield. Though he has cooled off from his hot start considerably, and hit .130 in August when we can only assume had pink-eye in both. The only players currently on the roster who might, might matter when the Mariners matter again are J.P. Crawford and Jake Fraley, and that’s giving Crawford the best of it. Otherwise, these are all just place-holders and people who go lost that the Ms handed a bat.

The rotation is where the real adventure is, and you know it is because the Mariners have gone with an “opener” 47 times this season. Justus Sheffield is up, and he’s someone they’ll hope can catch the torch when Felix Hernandez passes it down (or more accurately, hangs it and watches it belted into the gap). Sheffield had serious walk-problems in AAA though and that hasn’t stopped in his two MLB starts. Felix will get the second game, as he’s recently back from injury to take one last lap around the track before he’s sent to the farm upstate for aging pitchers with no velocity anymore.

As you might guess with any bad team, the Mariners have had a parade of the bewildered out of their pen, with Cory Gearrin moved along after showing competence. 17 guys have thrown at least 10 innings out of the pen for them, and if you can pick any of them out of a lineup then we weep for you and your family. It’s a Make-A-Wish out there. However, they have discovered some whosits that have found some success of late, possibly because hitters are trying to figure out who they are and if they’re that dude who did that thing to their lawn and ran off a while ago.

The Cubs are behind the eight-ball now, but this is also the time for them to put up a big streak/number if they’re ever going to .(they’re not). The Ms, followed by a second chance to do to the Brewers what they should have done the first time, and then four with the Padres before a homestand against the Pirates and Reds before shit gets real. The Cubs should be harvest organs in the next two weeks. More likely they’ll just continue to let theirs melt and slowly leak out their pores. But if it’s ever going to happen, it’s now.

 

Baseball

Mariners Spotlight: One Last Time For The King?

By Sam Fels 1438 0

It’s not like Felix Hernandez has a storied history with the Cubs. He’s made all of three starts against them in his career, and Tuesday will be his fourth. Still, any fan of baseball might want to make an extra effort to see King Felix at Wrigley, as you might not see him anywhere after this season.

Hernandez will always be the Sabermetricians Saint, winning a Cy Young in 2010 with just a 13-12 record, as his numbers that matter were simply too good to ignore for the stodgiest of fogies. Perhaps Jacob deGrom‘s last year wouldn’t have happened if the dam hadn’t been broken by Felix before. Certainly it was a landmark when we finally got beyond the win as a stat for evaluating pitchers and got to what matters.

Felix might not get the farewell treatment of others in his position simply because he’s spent his career stashed away in the corner of the country no one seems to notice, playing games that didn’t matter. Felix Hernandez won’t get to make a playoff start. He barely got any pennant chasing games to partake in, with last year being about the only time the Mariners were in hailing distance of a playoff spot. And he was pretty much toast by then.

Hernandez was also the rare pitcher, though you can see Kershaw doing it now, who was able to reinvent himself when his stuff changed. King came up throwing gas and more of it, averaging 95 MPH with his fastball when he arrived. And at that time, that was godlike weaponry, instead of par for the course as it is now. But that went away over the years, and yet Hernandez not only got by with guile and craft but still continued to dominate with it, using his change in ways that hadn’t been seen before. In 2014, he threw his change a third of the time, still kind of unheard of, and rode it to a 2.14 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, both the best marks of his career.

And that’s where the wave seemed to have broke for King Felix. His fastball continued to lose verve, and no amount of feel or touch or genius could see Hernandez continue to dance around hitters. His ERA has climbed every year since, concluding with an unsightly 5.55 last season that should be stricken from the records when he retires so as better to highlight his greatness. It’s over 6.00 this year, and Hernandez has missed most of the season with injury problems.

Felix’s contract is up after this season, and though he’ll go down as the second-best Mariners pitcher ever behind Randy Johnson (and as Mariners it would actually be a debate who was better), it’s hard to see where Seattle could find a role for him. His stuff doesn’t suggest he can be anymore effective out of the bullpen, unless he was able to fashion more of a slider or breaking ball and live almost exclusively on that or a change as something of a gimmick/change-of-look reliever. He’s only 33, which doesn’t sound old, but he’s been around for 14 years. Arms have only so many bullets.

One part of Felix’s legacy, as Joe Sheehan pointed out in his newsletter, is he’s probably one of the last teenagers we’ll ever see take a major league mound. Since Hernandez’s debut, only Julio Arias has thrown more than 50 innings in a season before reaching 20. The way Hernandez’s stuff deteriorated certainly would scare most any GM.

Still, Hernandez was a treasure, and his personality would have played much bigger in the game were he anywhere else but Seattle. He was Jose Fernandez before Jose Fernandez. Home starts of his were local holidays in Seattle, and perhaps no player in a couple decades was as loved as he was there. It’s a shame it’ll end like this, though most pitching careers do. It would have been apt if he’d gotten to pitch any game that truly mattered, but that’s not on him.

Maybe he can find somewhere next year, with a pitching coach/scouting staff that has an idea on how he can be effective out of a pen. Just to have some innings here and there that remind, or in the case of a lot of people, show for the first time what he was. There are few who remain the league’s best first with power and then with brains, but he was one of them.

Maybe this is it, and King Felix will remain a cult classic. Maybe that’s more apt for a Seattle product. That’s how they like it.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Drop Two Of Three To Brewers: You Get What You Deserve

By Sam Fels 1259 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Brewers 1

Game 2 Box Score: Brewers 2, Cubs 0

Game 3 Box Score: Brewers 4, Cubs o

The temptation to rant and rave and declare it all over certainly is strong, and probably even justified. By the time the night ends the Cubs could be four back with 26 to go, which sounds daunting. At the same time, both the Cardinals and Cubs are so mediocre that this race probably has a turn or two left, and as long as either are in touching distance of the other when they get to the seven in 10 against each other that ends the season, nothing will be over.

Even yesterday, I don’t feel like I want to throw things out the window over. The Cubs made a lot of loud contact and line drives that just kept ending up caressed in leather instead of finding open spaces. That happens sometimes. It’s frustrating when it comes at the end of a season where you’ve pissed away so many games in stupid fashion, and I keep writing this. But they happen to everyone.

Today feels more toward unacceptable. A second-straight bullpen game against with the only true dominant reliever the Brewers have not coming up for air until the game was already over. Some pretty baffling lineup decisions, then in-game ones, as well as more simply bewildering performance, and an inability to simply put the bat on the ball when it matters. You just can’t have that, or you can’t if you’re trying to claim to be something it’s obvious you’re not.

But at the end of the day, this is what the Cubs are. Three steps forward, two and a half back, then two steps forward with three steps back, going nowhere.

And what should really be galling, either to the front office or the media that covers it, is this is the type of weekend the Cubs told you they needed to have more focus on, more killer instinct, before this season started, when they were reacting so bizarrely to a 95-win season. They had a chance to put the Brewers to the sword here, and basically end their season (they’ll get another chance next weekend, but don’t bet on it). And they passed. They limped away. Good thing they got rid of all those themed roadtrips, huh?

Let’s…

-Ok, let’s do today first. Joe Maddon got away with a goofy lineup on Friday because Chase Anderson is awful and Nick Castellanos had himself a day. But that was a lineup shorn of Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. That doesn’t mean trying it a second time was all that advisable.

Fine, Rizzo needs a day as he comes back from his back problems. Really the only move I’m talking about here is not starting Schwarber. Yeah, he’s not great against lefties, but neither are Addison Russell, or Albert Almora, or Jonathan Lucroy. Schwarbs has been just about the best hitter next to Castellanos of late, and this team can’t really go without his bat when two of the “Core Four” aren’t around. And this game could have come down to an AB or two before Craig Kimbrel had nothing.

-So then you get to the sixth, and whatever the fuck that was. It’s not like Joe wouldn’t have seen Claudio warming up, and known that pinch-hitting for Almora with Heyward (0-for-his-last-18 at that point), would see him come into the game. So he would have to know that Heyward-Claudio is what he’s going to get, and if he’s uncomfortable enough with that that he needs to bunt (NEVER BUNT), then just have Almora do it. But again, don’t bunt.

-Also, bunting in assuming that Addison Russell is going to give you a good AB next is some galaxy brain abstract thinking. Does Joe know he sucks?

-And still we go on, as the Cubs finally get a leadoff hit from Bryant, and then the next three guys strikeout. There it is right there, the main problem it’s always been. Sure, it’s not really fair to Caratini who’s been really good of late, or Rizzo who was rung up on a pitch outside the zone (LOVE THE HUMAN ELEMENT SO MUCH I’M LIGHTING MY SCROTUM ON FIRE). Heyward never had a chance because he’s bad. You can’t have any of this. Caratini has to take the walk or pull the ball. Someone’s got to get a bat on the ball. I don’t want to hear the rest of it.

-Speaking of Heyward, I don’t want to hear it anymore. He can bitch and moan all he likes but when it’s all over where you bat in the lineup shouldn’t make a damn bit of difference. The idea is always the same. So don’t tell me putting him in the leadoff spot sent him into a tailspin and don’t tell me that you can’t move him when he starts again because he’s requested that he not be. Hit the damn ball or get out of the way.

-And speaking of Bryant, his big homers against Cincy, Pittsburgh, and the Giants have masked the fact that he’s been thoroughly mediocre for a month. With Contreras out and Rizzo hurting, the Cubs need more from him. That’s if he’s healthy, and you won’t convince me he is. But a 94 wRC+ for a month isn’t good enough. The Cubs have their weak spots, and that’s not going to change. With no Rizzo, you only have Schwarber and Castellanos that have been performing at a “star” level. Again, it’s not enough.

Anyway, onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Braves: A Glimpse?

By Sam Fels 1217 0

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RECORDS: White Sox 60-73   Braves 81-54

GAMETIMES: Friday/Saturday 6:20,  Sunday 4:10

TV: NBCSN Friday/Saturday, WGN Sunday

PROBABLY NOT AT THE GOLD CLUB: Talkin’ Chop

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Braves Spotlight

Atlanta in late August wouldn’t be high up the list of places you want to be at this time, but the schedule says the Sox have to descend on the Dirty South. There they’ll get a look at the NL’s second-best team, the Atlanta Braves, and maybe a glimpse at what they hope to be in a year or two’s time.

The Braves have been able to hold off the Nationals’ lava-streak since the middle of May at arm’s length, still maintaining a 5.5-game lead in the NL East. They haven’t been under threat since they themselves turned it on all the way up, in May just like DC. They’ve gone 67-39 since May 1st, after a ho-hum April opening to the season. It’s truly impressive as the Braves don’t get to harvest on the organs of a weak division like the Dodgers do or teams in the AL. The East has four playoff contenders, even if the Phillies and Mets are flawed remain decidedly the Phillies and Mets. And the Braves just got done sweeping the Mets in Queens to exhibit that, which apparently is the hot new trend in the NL. And we’d better get used to this, because the Braves don’t look poised to go much of anywhere else anytime soon.

This is a blistering offense, but most of it is in the top half of the lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson toss you right into the deep end from the off, but there isn’t much behind that. Austin Riley briefly flashed, but then fizzled and then got hurt. Dansby Swanson has missed a chunk of time and has only been average when he has suited up. Nick Markakis hasn’t been able to back up his All-Star season from last and now finds himself on the IL, and Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann are around more for their defense. It’s Elvira top-heavy, though Matt Joyce of late has tried to remedy that.

The rotation isn’t going to wow anyone. Mike Soroka has been really good while doing it through ground-balls and control instead of the Fascist route of strikeouts. Max Fried has the stuff to do a lot better than a 4.08 ERA, but has had home-run problems thanks to a near-20% HR/FB rate. Dallas Keuchel has seemingly gotten around his delayed start to the season thanks to MLB owners’ cheapness, and still gets a ton of grounders (60.7%). But he too has had his home run issues. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are something of place-holders. It’s not what you’d guess a rotation looks like for a team running away with a very competitive division.

The pen needed some reshaping midseason, which is why they went out and got Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. Both have had their issues since arriving, though Melancon’s numbers are skewed by one ugly outing and has mostly been really good. Greene has some issues to work out still. The rest of the pen isn’t filled with too many names you know, though Sean Newcomb has been placed here after being replaced in the rotation and definitely has the stuff to be a dominating reliever.

If everything goes to plan, the White Sox will want a similar offense behind Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, and Madrigal next season. They have the makings of a more useful rotation than the Braves have gotten, but if you have this man fireworks at the top of the lineup your rotation only needs to achieve “not fucking it up.”

The Sox just got done getting brained by one first place team. They’d like to avoid spending the weekend doing the same against another.

 

Baseball

Braves Spotlight: Singing This Note Because It Fits In Well, Right In Acuna

By Sam Fels 1350 0

When the Sox take the field tonight, or more accurately when they watch the Braves take it in the top of the first, they’ll see a player they hope Luis Robert could emulate. That’s going to be awfully hard to do, as Ronald Acuna Jr. is off to one of the best starts in MLB history. It’s true. Acuna will walk with giants when this season is over.

Acuna is likely to get around 6.0 WAR in his second season, which is his age-21 season. If that were to happen, Acuna’s 9.7 WAR through age 21 would be the 20th best mark in history. It’ll be the best mark since Mike Trout 20.3 WAR in 2013, though he turned 22 in August of that season whereas Acuna won’t turn 22 until December. It’ll put him around names like Frank Robinson and Eddie Matthews. Not bad company.

It’s a mark of the game today how many modern players are on the list post-20th and lower. Manny Machado is on there, as is Juan Soto. So is Carlos Correa. And these are all names that Acuna has beaten so far and is only going to widen the lead as this season closes out. When you’re ahead of those, you’ve clearly pressed the right buttons.

Acuna was held down in Triple-A last year for the season’s first three weeks, due to whatever reason the Braves tried to hide behind to not say it was about service time. He’s already played 23 more games this year, but has 10 more home runs and basically double the stolen-bases. Acuna has also increased his walk-rate to 10.2% this year, up a point from last year.

The big improvement in Acuna’s game this season is his defense. He was a subpar centerfielder last year, but has become a slightly above-average one, with 1.2 defensive runs saved after a -7.8 season. As he learns the hitters at this level and gets more accustomed, that’s only going to go up, making him an all-around weapon.

While Acuna has hit more homers this year, he’s lost some slugging and ISO from his rookie season. It’s hard to know why, as he’s hitting the ball just as hard as he did last year and is producing far more line drives. He’s not striking out any more than he did, so maybe it’s just one of those strange things that happen in baseball, and will rebound simply because baseball gonna baseball on ya.

The impressive thing about Acuna is that he murders pretty much every pitch. He’s not just hitting fastballs and mistakes. He hits .338 against change-ups, .330 against curves, and .315 on sinkers. He covers most of the zone, though up and away seems to still be something of a weak spot for him:

Maybe that’s the one half-downside to Acuna this year, is that he’s not doing as much damage going the other way. But even that’s relative. Last year he had a 1.200 OPS when going the other way, and this year it’s all the way down to .908. This would be complaining about a mole on the Venus De Milo.

It’s hard to know where Acuna goes from here, because he’s already a top-tier player. He strikes out a touch more than you’d like, but if he’s going to hit 40 bombs, steal 30 bags, and hit around .300, who is really going to complain? If he lowers that, then you’re talking about the Trout-Betts range for him.

It sets up the Braves for a while for sure. The next generation is Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley, though they’ll have some more spots to fill. Christian Pache and Drew Waters could arrive next year. Weren’t we sick of the Braves winning all the time not so long ago?

Everything Else

Series Preview – Brewers vs. Cubs: Put Up The Blue Screen

By Sam Fels 1121 0

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RECORDS: Brewers 68-65   Cubs 72-61

GAMETIMES: Friday-Sunday at 1:20

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Saturday/Sunday

WE WHO ARE ABOUT TO DIE: Brew Crew Ball

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Brewers Spotlight

We should know better than to get all hot and bothered and moist over the Cubs after their sweep of the Mets. We’ve been here all second half, where they look great for a series or two, and then right about the time you’re ready to buy in, ease the seat back, reach down between your legs, they barf up a lung. It looks poised for them, because sweeping the Mets–including getting one over deGrom and Thor–after a gut-punch of a series against the Nats feels like a good recovery. It feels like a landmark. And three dates with a Brewers team that is begging for the needle seems a launchpad for something bigger. But we know better. Tread lightly.

That said, the Cubs can absolutely put the Crew out of their misery this weekend or next, as they have seven games with these goofs that have definitely gone off the boil. Since June 1st, they are 36-39, and the reason is pretty obvious. They can’t get no damn pitching. Adrian Houser and Jordan Lyles have kept the roof from collapsing, but Gio Gonzalez, Zach Davies, and Chase Anderson have looked like that kid throwing firecrackers in Boogie Nights. And those are the three the Cubs will get, so….FIRE!

You’ll be amazed that a team that got a surprise season out of a no-name bullpen and then tried to run it back again this year has found that didn’t work, but it’s true. Of late, their new additions to the pen have again been propping up the ceiling, but mainstays like Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader have been straight up bad. Same goes for Curse Of The Spread Matt Albers, so Craig Counsell has been making a lot of Craig Counsell faces.

Offensively, the Brewers have been fine, but when other units are less than fine they need more. Christian Yelich remains a football in the groin, and Ryan Braun has rolled back the years the past month and we know what happens at Wrigley with him (shudder, shudder). But Grandal lost his power in August, maybe due to a season behind the plate, and Lorenzo Cain might be dead. Keston Hiura and Mike Moustakas aren’t easy outs, but this is the same group the Cubs waltzed past just a few weeks ago. Not that much has changed.

The Brewers come in only three and a half games behind the Cubs, so they’re probably viewing this week as a last stand. But winning both of these upcoming series will see the Cubs likely six and a half ahead with a mere three weeks to go, and you could stick a fork in them. The Brewers had a chance to stake their place with six games against the Cardinals, and they lost four of them. And they mostly got pumped in those losses. They’re barely hanging on here, and it’s past time to stomp on their fingers and send them plummeting to the rocks below.

To the cliffs…

Baseball

Brewers Spotlight: Can You Raise A Cain Back Up When He’s In Defeat?

By Sam Fels 1336 0

While Christian Yelich took home the MVP trophy and most of the plaudits for the Brewers rise from the muck (not fair, Milwaukee is surprisingly lovely but we’ve got a role to play here) to a game from the World Series, Lorenzo Cain had his part to play as well. He was back to his Royals-best, nearly a six-WAR player, setting a career-high in batting average and playing an exemplary centerfield. Certainly he brought a swag to the Crew that helped them to their best season in recent memory.

So it would probably be fair to also point some arrows at him now that the Brewers appear to be resigned to their fate, sinking back into that muck from whence they came with little resistance.

Cain has fallen off a cliff offensively this year, suffering a 50-point drop in his average, 70-point drop in OBP, and a 60-point drop in slugging. He’s been worth a 77 wRC+, which is simply awful, 23 points below average. He’s been worth one win, due solely to his defense, a precipitous drop from ’18.

There are some easy causes to spot. His walk-rate has dropped from 11.5% to 8.4%, though the latter number is much closer to his career mark and last year was the outlier. That’s certainly not helping his on-base much. He’s also seen a 63-point drop in his BABIP, so he’s been a touch unlucky. Cain usually carries a higher-than-normal BABIP because of his speed, but that might be on the wane as he’s got half the steals from last year (30 to 16) with less than a month to go.

But it’s not that simple. While Cain is hitting more line-drives this season, even with the Titleist balls he’s seen a drop in his hard-contact rate while most everyone else is going the other way. And Cain has had issues with breaking and off-speed pitches, which is usually an indication that he’s leaning out a bit on fastballs, something of a marker of age. And he is 33, which is bordering on old.

Last year, Cain his .240 on change-ups, .271 on sliders, and .394 on curves. Those numbers this year are .164, .247, and .211, while his marks on fastballs remain just about the same. However, Cain might consider himself seriously unlucky, because his line-drive rate on all of those pitches is significantly higher than it was last season. That said, his whiff-rates on curves and changes, the real off-speed stuff, has gone up significantly too. So he can’t curse the gods about everything.

There also seems to be a shift in Cain’s approach. Last year, Cain had a 4.9 average launch-angle, which is way below what he used to do. This year it’s back up to 6.4, but it’s come at the price of what he’s doing at the bottom of the zone.

It’s the same story with slugging as well. Perhaps a fixation with getting the ball up in the air, or just not on the ground as much, has left him vulnerable.

Still, it’s a concern. The Brewers are not a young team by any stretch, and there isn’t a lot of help coming in the next year or two from the system. Whatever help there may be is already there, in the form of Keston Hiura and now Trent Grisham (who might push Cain off of center one day soon). Cain has three years left on his deal, which will take him to 36, and it figures that more and more of his speed is going to go on him.

Considering Braun is aging as well, and Grandal is only around for one more season after this one, and the state of the pitching staff, it could go out from under the Brewers in a hurry. Shame, that.