Baseball

FFUD’s Baseball Staff Winter Meetings Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1430 0

We pulled together our baseball quadrant–Adam Hess, AJ, Wes French, and yours truly, to gauge where we are as the Winter Meetings heat up.

Welcome FFUD Baseball staff. It’s Winter Meetings time, and I’m surrounded by three Sox fans feeling their oats while I’m the lone, nihilistic Cubs fan. Pretty sweet so far, right? Grandal in tow, and at least what seemed a credible run at Zack Wheeler (although it’s always credible after the fact with the Sox, isn’t it?). Where are you and what would you like to see happen now?

AJ: My initial reaction to missing out on Wheeler basically had a “these fucking idiots did it again” kinda feel to it. Now after looking at how it all played out in the cold light of day I’m happier that the Sox at least had the highest bid (which was creeping towards the Overpay, but whatever it’s not my money).

The Sox still need at least one starter and a right fielder. With the Nats basically saying they can only afford one of the Strasburg/Rendon pair the Sox should hope it’s Rendon (it probably should be, looking at how much the Nats have already spent on pitching) and go all in after Strasburg. If not him, Ryu would be an excellent consolation prize.

Wes: Greetings, and let me open with a sentiment I share with Blake Snell:  I wish it was White Sox slapdick prospect Nick Madrigal heading to TB for Tommy Pham instead of him packing for San Diego. Not sure how my Sox counter parts here feel about little Nicky, but I Say deal him now before he’s a mediocre MLB slap hitter in 2021.

Grandal was a great first step, and while it’s a disappointment to lose out on a guy like Wheeler I think it’s more of a disappointment that he was plan A.  Cole and Strasburg may have told the Sox no thanks from the jump, but they have more than enough of Manny Machado’s money laying around to change minds. The only silver lining here is we haven’t been subjected to Kenny Williams getting on camera to boast about offering a baseball player a contract that didn’t get him signed. I’d be very pleased with Ryu and Keuchel in that order and if they stay all the way out on MadBum.

 You feeling any tingles over Dan Winkler signing for the Cubs, Fels? 

 Fels: Well, honestly unless you’re getting an absolute sure thing in the pen (hello Drew Pomeranz and even he might not be) you’re better off going cheap with guys who have great stuff who you think you can mold. Just line up like nine guys who throw 117 MPH and see if you can’t get five of them to find the plate in your pitching lab. So Winkler seems to be that. But obviously it’s not what I want.

But honestly what I want from the Cubs at these meetings is what I don’t want them to do. Don’t make a rash trade just for the sake of it. Don’t trade one of THE FIVE simply to save Ricketts money down the road. I’m sure there are plenty of good baseball deals for Willson Contreras out there, but you’re also trading what, the second best offensive catcher at worst in the game? With improving framing skills (according to some). With a new mentor as manager. Tread lightly. Basically I’m going to spend the week with my head under a pillow.

 Speaking of Rendon…where is it the Sox would play him, exactly?

 Wes: 2B. Or move Yoan back to 2B. Or RF, I mean he seriously can’t be any worse than the clown show they’ve trotted out there for years. Things in right were so bad in 2019 the usual blog/personalities covering the Sox were pining for the days of Avi Garcia. If Rendon will take your checks you just sign him and sort out positions later. I really don’t think he’d have a problem with 2B at this stage, having been there previously and diminishing a bit at 3B last season. Plus you can roll him into the DH convo and play Leury there in a pinch.

 But lets be real, Rendon is going home to Texas so all that was pointless. I DEMAND STARLING MARTE AND KEONE KELA. Send em Madrigal and Collins and Stiever and be done with it. And Hess, if you wanna argue with me about Stiever (and I have no reason to believe you do but just assume so cause arguing is fun!) you are wrong. There isn’t a pitcher in this org that I’d hold up any deal for that isn’t named Kopech.

 AJ: Wherever he wants to play, basically. He’s a plus defender at third and Moncada can move back to second opening up Wes’s favorite prospect for a trade for a RF or SP.

 Going back to what Wes mentioned, I don’t quite get the hate for MadBum. I get that he’s a mostly fly ball pitcher, but so is Giolito. MadBum improved the spin rate on his four-seamer almost as much as Lucas did, and while he didn’t have the same results the stuff is still there. Sure, he’s logged more innings than anyone else on the market, but it’s because he’s won WS rings. That kind of experience could be greatly beneficial to a young staff like the Sox have.  Plus he’s fucking crazy and I feel like him and Tim Anderson on the same team would turn into the ultimate buddy cop movie. Bare minimum it would be worth watching.

 What do you guys think?

 Wes: I think the miles on MadBum are what turn me off, and I counter your Tim/MadBum with Eloy/Ryu as a the pranksters of the clubhouse angle as more fun than MadBum getting redass at anyone that takes him deep and inevitably hits the Goose. 

 AJ: I’m certainly not against Ryu by any stretch of the imagination, but by the same token of MadBum’s miles are the multiple issues Ryu has had with his shoulder.  I wonder if Hahn pivots now to focus on RF in the market since the best “not Cole or Strasburg” option at SP is off the table. I’m still not sold on Castellanos but honestly I’d take anyone who can un-suck RF at this point.

 Hess: Hi folks, long time listener, first time responder here. Keep Madison Bumgarner away from here, not just because of the mileage, but because his numbers the past few years are alarmingly similar to James Shields’ were the years before he got his big contract in San Diego.

 And while I’m late to this, Wes I have to admit your idea of trading for Tommy Pham is a good one, but trading Madrigal for him would’ve been outrageous. Even if Madrigal is a slap hitter in MLB in 2021 (and don’t kid yourself, he will be in MLB at some point in 2020) his contact abilities and baserunning, plus his defense, are going to make him a certifiable MLB player. He just doesn’t have a ton of power upside with that bat, but he probably will be a 110-115 wRC+ type with plus defense. While I’m certainly not opposed to trading him, I need a hell of a lot more than Tommy Pham there.

 Wes: I’m really not into Castellanos or Ozuna at this point, mostly because the Sox have essentially locked up DH at bats for the next few years by locking up Grandal/Abreu together for at least the next three seasons. They’re definite upgrades over the status quo, but the idea of either remaining in RF for the duration of a deal is kind of horrifying. 

 Fels….I feel like we’re leaving you out in the cold here. I know you’d rather NOT see the big five dealt and I’d rather NOT have to worry about what Hess alluded to in Jerry dealing with Boras as the only hope for SP – yet here we all are. The Cubs are determined to move someone for some reason, so what kind of deal would piss you off least?

 Fels: If I have to stomach one, and I will maintain to my dying day (next week) that the Cubs absolutely should not trade any of their central players, but Contreras for a genuine starting pitcher and maybe another piece probably would keep me from taking a 2×4 to something. The Cubs have a decent fill-in in the form of Caratini, with a promising kid in Amaya not too far behind. Willson is a lot to give up, and you’ll get some debate on whether his defense is eroding or improving. He’s also the emotional heartbeat of this team, but whatever. That one I could handle, barely. Anything else and I’m puking. But the idea of trading him or Bryant for merely prospects to “extend the window” is pure lunacy and any Cubs fan that finds that line of thought acceptable should be defenestrated twice, just to make sure.

 

 

Hockey

It’s Time To Let Adam Boqvist Run

By Sam Fels 1681 0

I know you must be sick of the constant debate here and elsewhere on what exactly this season is supposed to be for the Hawks. We don’t know if it’s a secret rebuilding year that they’re afraid to label due to ticket sales, or they’re really trying to make the playoffs and they’re just bad at it. What’s really frustrating and scary is that it’s getting clearer and clearer they don’t know either. The lack of true bellyaching from the vets would suggest they’ve been advised it’s a rebuilding year but can’t say so publicly, but that’s just more tea leaf reading that make us all sick. So let’s forget that.

Because no matter what it is, it’s time to let Adam Boqvist run the show. Or at least see if he can.

In case you missed it this morning, Adam Boqvist was called up along with Matthew Highmore as Andrew Shaw was moved to LTIR. With Duncan Keith out for the entire road trip, it gives the Hawks some more bodies. But even the Hawks aren’t dumb enough to call up their #1 prospect and have him sit in the pressbox so we can watch Dennis Gilbert and/or Slater Koekkoek pull the Bugs Bunny, “Heyexcusmemistercouldyoutellme….’ while some Knight forward blazes past them. After Koekkeok’s egregious tour de stupid last night, he should be sent to Rock Vegas immediately and forever anyway.

If the Hawks are trying to make the playoffs, and I guess being only four points out even with every team to leap they can make that case, they need any kind of mobility they can get on the back end. They need transition. And they don’t need to worry about defensive breakdowns or getting beat, because everyone besides Connor Murphy is doing that anyway.

The biggest cause to the Hawks’ headaches, or one of them, is that they simply can’t win any races in their own end. Watch when any team gets possession in the Hawks zone, and whenever there’s a puck to be won you can be sure the Hawks will be second to it. This is where team speed really counts, not in racing up and down the ice in a track meet. The Hawks can’t get there. Boqvist can get there. And he needs to learn how to do that at an NHL pace and with NHL reactions, things he can’t simulate in the AHL.

And he can skate out of trouble. Watch how many times a Hawk d-man has the puck below the goal line and seemingly with time and never makes a play before getting inhaled and spit out by a forechecker. That’s why the Hawks have to use the 17-pass breakout, because the forwards have to be there to bail out their tortoise defense. And then the next forward has to be lower for an option for that first forward. Boqvist can extend all this up the ice.

And if this is strictly a development year, and it could be, then there’s even more incentive to let him come up, make mistakes but also “try shit,” because he’s the only one who can at high speeds. Gustafsson “tries shit” all the time at remedial pace, and you see where that’s gotten everyone. Having Boqvist drooled on by has-beens and never-will-bes in some backwater only reachable by dirt road isn’t going to do much for him or the Hawks. He’s gotten a sampling at both levels now, was told what to work on, so let’s go.

Even in his brief time here, the Hawks had their best goals-for per 60 and expected goals-for per 60 with Boqvist on the ice. Sure, more things happen in their zone too, but it’s not like they’re planning on making that stop anyway. Get him out there with a true free safety, really any one of de Haan, Murphy, or Maatta would work. Do not stick him with Seabrook on his wrong side or Gustafsson or Fetch or Gilbert or so help me….

And let him run. Don’t put the shackles on him. Let’s see what he can do. Don’t bench him for bad turnover or two. Put his hair on fire. If this is a Ferrari, you don’t use it to go to fucking Mariano’s a couple blocks away in traffic. Get out on Sheridan Road and scare some people on the lake in Winnetka. Put him on the #1 PP, get the puck off of Kane’s stick for a few seconds and see if Boqvist’s creative movement opens things up for everyone else. Once again, the Hawks’ PP has become stagnant as Kane James Hardens the puck on the right circle.

Because if you can see The True Boqvist in these next few games, it’ll make your decisions when Keith is healthy more explicable to people. Because that’s still the underlying debate. We know the Hawks likely will chicken out (again) and just send #27 down when Keith is healthy so they don’t have to scratch Maatta and Seabrook regularly. But if Boqvist gives everyone an exciting glimpse of the future, it’s much easier to go the press and say, “We need this in the lineup because we just don’t have it otherwise,” and one of the vets is out on their ass.

Whether the Hawks want to go somewhere this year or down the road, they have hard decisions. Give Boqvist every chance to make them easier.

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 12/9: Get To The Working Overtime Part

By Sam Fels 1714 0

Three overtime games this week as the Hawks ended up with five of six points that somehow doesn’t feel as good as it should? Anyway, who did what this week?

The Dizzying Highs

Top Cat – Scored in all three games this past week, so it makes him a pretty easy choice. And two of them were the kinds of goals that only he and maybe Kane are coming up with–the snipe against the Bruins that hit top cheese and the finish from in close last night.. There hasn’t been too much panic about his lack of goals so far this year, because everyone knows this is a world-class finisher whose shooting-percentage is almost half of what his career mark is. Some of his metrics are slightly down from his first two years, and you never know how someone will respond to their first real contract even if it starts next year. But the slightly less attempts and chances he’s getting could be partially attributed to constant line shuffling, and since being paired with Strome and Kane and being left alone we’ve seen those numbers start to arc up. And the Hawks need it. The assumption was they’d find enough goals, but that hasn’t been the case with Toews’s struggles. Top Cat and Kane have to be scoring at a top-tier pace or this team is sunk every which way. Hopefully we’re getting back to that.

The Terrifying Lows

Andrew Shaw – This isn’t anything about what Shaw has done of late, and that’s the point. This is about how the Hawks handle Shaw from here, because you probably can’t get a more clear case of a player who needs to be protected from himself. We know that if given the choice, Shaw will head out there tomorrow and throw himself face-first into anything and everything. It’s pointless to try and do a concussion count on Shaw, because we know there were times even in his first stint as a Hawk where he played through it. Looking back on his Game 6 in Boston where he was knocked out cold and yet still barely missed a shift…that almost seems criminally negligent now. Shaw would tell you that’s what he wanted, and most players would in that situation. Would he tell you that 10 years from now? 15? Is he going to be able to remember it?

We’ve been critical of the Hawks’ handling of concussions in the past, pointedly with Marcus Kruger. Of late that doesn’t seem to be an issue, and perhaps Corey Crawford forced them to really make changes. Yes, Dylan Strome played a game through one, but he didn’t report anything to the Hawks and took himself out after that. Again, this is an injury that somewhat relies on the player being honest with the medical staff, which we know a lot of them aren’t. The Hawks and hockey have a long way to go, but at least they seem to be headed in the right direction for once.

Shaw was put on LTIR today, and it would not be a surprise if he’s out a lot longer than the minimum of past Christmas. It would behoove the Hawks to have a long talk with Shaw and really explore whether having him sit out the rest of the season is a viable option. We know of four or five of these for him already, and he missed some serious time with the Habs because of it. We can be pretty sure what Shaw wants, because what else is he going to do? But the Hawks might want to have his better interests in mind.

And when he gets back, perhaps the applauding of any fight he picks should be put down? He can still be physical and play a Shaw game without taking unnecessary risks, because you feel one good straight right and his career is going to be over. These are the kinds of things Shaw needs to be told, because if left up to him…again, we know the answer. If he’s not 100%, and really 100% and not close enough to it that the Hawks can give themselves a pass, by the time his LTIR stint is over, it feels like the risks to have him play this year are too great.

The Creamy Middles

Dylan Strome – Did you know Strome was playing at a 63-point pace? I guess I didn’t realize it that much either until now. But he’s been pretty damn consistent when healthy, and even if that’s his ceiling that’s solid #2 center production which was the idea the whole time. Strome’s metrics, while by themselves are hardly shining, are much better relative to the team than they were last year, which is encouraging. He got clocked a bit last night but had some glittering numbers against the Bruins and Devils. He’s been exactly what you would have asked for, even if you don’t notice him pop quite as much. In a stretch of time where it feels like Stan Bowman hasn’t gotten anything right, this one counts as a good move.

Hockey

Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Spotlight: Still Waiting On Our Billy Beane

By Sam Fels 1272 0

Just about two years ago, we wrote a spotlight on Arizona GM John Chayka and how we hoped that one day the NHL would finally have a front office that did things differently and broke through the old ways. We wanted our Moneyball, so that the sport might actually move into the 21st century. At the time, Kyle Dubas was being Phantom of The Opera’d in Toronto, though he’s finally ascended to the actual GM chair. There aren’t too many other candidate of GMs who come from the more executive or analyst side of the ledger. Chayka is one. And two years on, we don’t see anything that will make up hope he’s going to change anything.

Oh sure, the Coyotes are tussling with the Oilers for first place in an increasingly weird Pacific Division. Do any looking under the hood though, and you’ll see that’s merely the product of having Darcy Kuemper throw a .937 at the world. The Yotes lead the league in save-percentage, and that’s enough sometimes admittedly, but are pretty terrible anywhere else you look. They’re not even a good defensive team, they just have the goalies bail them out all the time.

And worse yet, this collection of whosits and whatsits are a cap team. Sure, some of that is taking on Marian Hossa’s salary as a favor to the Hawks really, but you shouldn’t be spilling into LTIR territory to ice a team with no genuine star. Look over this team and it’s hard to find a genuine top line/pairing player. Sure, Oliver Ekman-Larsson sure has all the appearance of that and maybe the smoothest skater in the league, but he hasn’t played a game that matters in eight seasons. Didn’t Erik Karlsson drag worse teams to the playoffs in Ottawa?

Clayton Keller maybe? We’ll give you that one, but after that it’s perfect that Nick Schmaltz was an acquisition last year. This is a team full of Nick Schmatlzes. Small, fast forwards who pass through your vision without ever doing much to make you remember them as soon as they fade out of view.

Strangely, this team is already capped out for next year as well. It only has $750K in cap space for next season with 17 players signed. What’s the plan here to get a genuine star? They probably won’t be bad enough to get into the top three draft-wise, and they have no room to lure a big free agent.

Chayka brought in Phil Kessel this summer, possibly to fill in that gap, but at 32 that’s hardly likely. And that only made up for the bad trade of Alex Galchenyuk in return for sending the little mutant Max Domi to Montreal. The Canadiens certainly aren’t complaining.

Chayka has yet to get anything out of the past two drafts other than 12 games out of Barrett Hayton, and his first round pick from ’17 was part of the Kessel trade. As it was when we last looked at this, Keller and Jakob Chychrun remain his only hits in the draft, and they look to be more second line/pairing products. Which you need, but you also need the stars they support.

Clearly money is not a problem in the desert, because of their cap status the next two years. Maybe Chayka can move along Demers and Goligoski in the last years of their deals to open up about $7M, but is that enough? Dvorak, Schmaltz, Fischer, and Keller have all been given reasonable extensions, but one might want to ask why? Where is this going?

Maybe it’s two years down the line that Chayka has circled, when Stepan, Grabner, Hjalmarsson, and the vets mentioned above come off the books and the kids should be entering their prime. Perhaps no final judgements can be made until then. Brayden Burke will join up by then, as will one or two other kids. But does Chayka have two more years without a playoff berth? If Kuemper drags them to one this year it’ll buy him the time. Maybe the Pacific’s remedial nature this year will also help. But building a fringe playoff team shouldn’t be the long-term goal. The playoffs are merely a step. Do you see a contender in the offing here?

Hockey

Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, and Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1323 0

Look, we do this every time the Coyotes wash up here. We don’t even remember they exist much less have the time to construct any villain in the piece. There isn’t one here. You can’t help but love Phil Kessel, even if he is something of a dickhead. Anyone really getting their blood angry about Nick Schmaltz’s return? You can’t pick out one moment of his Hawks career anyway. It was basically played in the dark, just like every Coyotes game. Hammer is even hurt so we can’t lament how no one appreciates that swapping him out for Murphy was actually a good trade. Did you even remember Antti Raanta was a Hawk? Yeah neither did we until we thought of it just now. They’re the Yotes. They’re there and then they’re gone. 2011 was a long time ago now.

Hockey

Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1180 0

Coyotes

Notes: Hawks catch something of a break as they’ll get Raanta instead of Kuemper tonight, though it was only last year that Raanta was the cinderella goalie story in Arizona. Which they seem to produce every year…Garland is the leading scorer but he only has one in his last nine…Local boy Dvorak has six points in his last six games…

Notes: Other than Sikura, Colliton said the lineup will remain the same with Lehner in net so Maatta must still be shaking off whatever struck him down in Boston…This is Sikura’s third game in three nights, so he might not have a lot of jump. Which makes the timing here weird, but whatever. He showed some things with Saad and Toews last year, don’t be shocked if he gets a look there tonight as Nylander has become a nothing…

Hockey

Game #29 – Hawks vs. Devils Preview: Whenever Someone’s From “Parts Unknown” It Means Downtown Newark, Monsoon

By Sam Fels 1471 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 11-12-5    Devils 9-14-4

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WHAT AM I DOING IN NEW JERSEY: In Lou We Trust

The NHL schedule is a cruel beast. So even after putting forth a pretty good effort against the Bruins who have yet to lose at home in regulation this year, the Hawks do not get to bask or linger as they’re immediately on display in Newark to take on the Devils. And two days later they’ll be back at home to see the Coyotes and play every other day after that. No time for love, Dr. Jones. And in the Devils, they may be getting a glimpse of the future.

The Devils, after being completely embarrassed in Buffalo on Monday and surrendering a touchdown with the PAT, fired their coach John Hynes, even though they had a game the every next day agains Vegas at home. Alain Nasreddine took over the helm, but now he’ll have had a couple practices to make whatever changes he’d like. As he’s always been Hynes’s assistant, no one’s entirely sure what those are.

There is some desire among the red and black faithful to see the Devils play a little faster and a little more aggressive, as they had a tendency to simply sink into their own slot to defend, which didn’t leave them in a position to spring forward with the abundance of speed they do have. Or at least they’ve looked to had when they were scorching the Hawks the past couple seasons. Remember this is the team that put up eight on the Hawks in this fixture last year.

Another complaint is that players haven’t been put in the best spots to succeed. Like the amount of time Travis Zajac has been spending centering Taylor Hall. Or Jack Hughes on the fourth line (funny what’s going on with the top three picks so far). Or that Nico Hischier isn’t higher in the lineup. So these might be changes you see Nasreddine make.

Then again, it’s a mystery what any coach can do when the goaltending has been this bad. The Devils have the third-worst SV% at evens and the second-worst overall. Last year, Cory Schneider looked like he might not be quite dead and might actually have every piece of him attached. Those were quickly proven to be mirages this season, and now he’s off to the land of wind and ghosts and quite possibly never to return. McKenzie Blackwood, while in need of a first name, has flashed in the past being at least a serviceable goaltender. The only thing flashing this year so far is the light behind him. Louis Domingue was brought in to replace Schneider after some decent seasons backing up Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s currently doing a fine impression of Murray Bannerman. When no goalie can even eyeball a .900 SV%, your team is going to blow (unless you’re last year’s Sharks).

In front of that, the Devils had retreated to the more defensive team you remember from decades of nearly killing the sport. They don’t give up a ton in their own end, but their goalies have still found a way to let more than enough of those chances in to kill their season. They sure as hell don’t create much, and Hughes’s and Hischier’s deployment isn’t going to make up for that alone. They just need more.

With their season already being borked, they may get it via firesale. The winds are already blowing on Hall, who is going to be the deadline gem for a host of teams chasing parades. Other candidates to hit the bricks: Travis Zajac, who could be a pretty good checking center for someone. Sami Vatanen could boost just about any power play. Maybe Andy Greene would go to steady a second or third pair, but he’s been the longtime captain and that’s harder to see. If they really get ambitious, Meat Train Simmonds could probably fool someone again into thinking he brings playoff grit, even though he’s  seen the second round exactly once in his career. Kyle Palmieri can provide secondary scoring for a host of teams, but he’s got another year left on his deal as well. How brave does Ray Shero want to get to try and surround Hughes and Hischier with players?

For the Hawks, minimal changes for tonight you would think. Olli Maatta was sick yesterday but might be better enough to go tonight, which would relieve us of the burden of watching Dennis Gilbert doing whatever it is he does. Drake Caggiula was making noise about playing tonight as well, which would probably sit Anton Wedin. Andrew Shaw and Duncan Keith are most certainly not going to play. Corey Crawford will get the start.

As stated above, the Devils have been a handful for the Hawks the past couple seasons. That’s back when they played a little more adventurously, so if they get back to that or not will determine how hard this one gets. The Devils have the capability to turn any turnover up the ice quickly, especially when you’re as plodding as the Hawks’ blue line is without Keith.

Still, the goalies have been so weak and this has to be a fragile team at the moment, even if they’re new-coach inspired. Get some shots on net and see if you can’t get a weak one or two. The Devils head off on a long road trip after this one, so maybe you catch them dreading that. Last night was a good start, but it’s only that if you build on it.