Sam Fels – Page 164 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #5 – Blues vs. Hawks Spotlight: That’s The Way You Go, The City Is So, So Cold

By Sam Fels October 13, 2018 1909 0

Let us just throw some numbers at you: .940, .946, .932, .911, .926, .923, .937, .922.

Those are the playoff save-percentages of the last eight Cup-winning goaltenders. The only outlier there is Jonathan Quick‘s 2014 run, which was buffeted by an offense that went Human Torch in the playoffs, thanks to Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Justin Williams, and Marian Gaborik. So to get to a Cup, the buy-in for a goalie is just about .922.

Jake Allen‘s career playoff SV% is .922. So you might be a pleasant person, with inclinations of optimism (in which case, what are you doing here?), and say, “Well, that’s at the very bottom rung, but it’s at the table. The Blues could do it with this guy!” Well congratulations, you’re the Blues GM now.

Dig a little deeper, and you’ll see the problem. That .922 is buffeted by one series, in 2017 against the decidedly punchless Minnesota Wild. Allen threw a .956 at Minnesota over five games, winning that series pretty much by himself, and condemning Bruce Boudreau to another sweaty, Klondike-filled summer turning more read than he normally is.

But after that, when the Blues came up against an actual offense in Nashville, Allen was hurled back to Earth with impolite speed with a .909 over six games. Which aligns nicely with his .897 in 2016 as he and Brian Elliot played Hide The Pickle in the crease, or his .904 the year before as he hilariously threw up a kitten against that same Wild, including a real tour-da-fuck? in Game 6 of that series. Take away that one series, and Allen’s playoff SV% is .904.

Now let’s throw in the little nugget that Allen has exactly one regular season of a save-percentage over league-average. Would you, a rational human being with passable knowledge of how the game works, turn over your starting goalie job to him yet again?

Let’s pull back. Would you, a rational human being with a passable knowledge of how the game works, make the ultra-aggressive moves of signing Tyler Bozak to a free agent contract at age 32, and then give up a good deal of draft picks–signaling the future doesn’t mean much to you–to acquire Ryan O’Reilly, indicating you expect to not only make the playoffs this year but go far, and then turn the most important aspect over to Jake Allen?

No, you’re not crazy or masochistic or have fallen down the rabbit hole into Wonderland where you’re currently chasing around the Mad Hatter with a tire iron because seriously, fuck that guy.

And yet here we are with the Blues, once again. You may not think the additions of O’Reilly and Bozak puts them over the top. It probably doesn’t unless they get unexpected contributions from a few kids in the lineup. But you don’t make them thinking you’re just going to settle for third place and a first-round exit, either. Short of somehow convincing John Tavares that St. Louis was in Ontario (and feel free to take it, Ontario), this was about as much as the Blues could do to get in the ring with the Jets and Predators.

But what does it matter if the anchor is made of cardboard? Anyone think Allen is going to be able to stonewall either the Jets or Preds in the first round, the most likely opponents? The Blues would either have to win the division to avoid either to lead off the spring, or someone engineer a wild card spot that gets flipped over to the Pacific, where only San Jose or Vegas would probably be worrying. And you don’t commit yourself to $12.5 million worth of new centers to aim for a wild card spot.

Sure, the renovations to the rest of the house look great. Do they really matter if the foundation is causing the whole thing to lean to one side?

Game #5 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #5 – Blues vs. Hawks Q&A: Oh Dear God Brad Lee Got Loose

By Sam Fels October 13, 2018 1822 0

Hi, I’m Brad. I live in St. Louis. Much of my wardrobe is blue. I’m the captain of the USS Game Time, the fan-run paper we sell outside every Blues game. It’s a lot like what the Committed Indian was when Sam was more committed. Or before he got committed. I forget. For the record, in the very last issue of your deceased Hawks paper, I responded to one of these Q&As. It was for Game 6 of the 2016 first-round playoff series between the Blues and the Hawks. In that last issue, because the Blues eliminated the Blackhawks in Game 7, I predicted it would be the last issue. However, I thought it would just be the last issue of the season, not for forever. Someday I should use my powers for good.

This is the second time the Blues and Hawks have played in a week. Sam didn’t send new questions for me to answer. He said answer last week’s. But that’s so last week. I’ve written up some amazing questions, maybe the best questions ever asked on this website. Then I wrote some answers. Next time you attend a game in St. Louis and a guy who looks like Santa or a woman you think may be homeless because she has plastic grocery bags over her shoes to keep her feet warm waves a publication that says, “Blackhawks Suck,” (we only print the truth) please consider buying one. My three kids eat a lot.

Now, entertaining answers AND incredible questions from Brad of Game Time.

Q. The Blues finally have a win and a well-balanced record of 1-1-1. You mouth-breathers down I-55 plan the parade down Market Street yet? (Obvs, I’m doing some Sam cosplay here)

A. Expectations are a bitch. Hawks fans still have them for some reason. They shouldn’t. Sure, during the offseason Blues GM Doug Armstrong added some important players. If you compare the forward lines from tonight to a year ago, it’s an incredible change — on paper. On ice, it’s been a different story. The best example I have is from the Hawks game last Saturday. The Blues tried a stretch pass after a decent outlet out of their own zone. The players were a little out of step, so the timing didn’t work. They got another chance quickly, but they turned the puck over just inside the Chicago zone. A Blues player blew a tire and the Hawks went the other way on a two-on-one. Future Supreme Court Justice nominee Patrick Kane put a shot on net, the rebound came straight out and the resurrected corpse of Marcus Kruger put home an easy opportunity (feel free to call him Zombie Kruger from this point forward). They were two examples of plays where it seemed like familiarity made a difference. Spoiler Alert: I’m going to talk about Jake Allen farther down. The biggest concern might be the defense. Let’s ask a question about that.

Q. Hey handsome Brad, your beard looks well-manicured. Blues defenseman Joel Edmundson also has a beard. He was hurt to start the season along with Carl Gunnarsson. That led to guys named Chris Butler and Niko Mikkola being on the roster on defense opening night last week. Jay Bouwmeester is still an NHL player? What the hell are they doing with the defense in St. Louis?

A. In the week it took the Blues to get their first win, the chicken or the egg conversation went like this: Allen is playing crap in goal and making the defense look bad. Or, the defense looks like traffic cones on the Dan Ryan and it’s making Allen look bad. How about they all started the season sucking? Second year guy Vince Dunn was a healthy scratch Thursday. They tried playing Jakub Jerabek on the third pairing. He was a -3 in less than 8 minutes of ice time. He was a castoff Oilers defenseman they got for a late-round pick right before the season started. Playing him smells like the stench of desperation or the visiting Wrigley clubhouse after two teams poured champagne on each other in 24 hours not long ago. Here’s what you need to watch: Edmundson, who got a goal in his return to the lineup, playing not quite Duncan Keith minutes with Alex Pietrangelo, every Bouwmeester mistake creating a scoring chance for the Hawks, a hopefully resurgent Colton Parayko — who arguably has the biggest shot for St. Louis but is reticent (sorry for the big words, Hawks fans; reluctant) to let it loose, a hopefully dressed Dunn and big and slow and low hockey IQ guy Bob Bortuzzo. On paper, again, it’s a decent unit. Subtracting Bouwmeester would be nice (last year of contract, hip surgery last season). Bortuzzo controlling his stick and elbows would be a nice change of pace. Seeing Pietrangelo focus more on his end would be even better.

Q. Does Jake Allen forget to take his ADD meds before most starts?

A. Blues fans either love Allen or they hate him. There’s no in between — kind of like his level of play. Fundamentally, he does a poor job squaring to the shooter and being in a solid position. The result is lots of movement laterally and some spectacular saves. Because he doesn’t prepare properly, he has torecover and use his athleticism. Fans see amazing saves and give him credit while others see he played himself into the position of having to make the spectacular move. Watch how often opponents shoot short side or take quick shots directly off the faceoff. It’s because he has a poor setup, poor preparation. Are there nights he does a better job? Absolutely. But take Thursday for example. The Blues had a 5-1 lead. The game ended 5-3. Allen stopped 91.2 percent of the shots he faced. That’s pretty average. In fact, it’s also his career save percentage. He’s definitely better than Cam “Don’t Forget I Won That Cup Years Ago” Ward. The backup is Chad Johnson. He hasn’t played in a game yet, but probably will take the ice tonight or at home Sunday in St. Louis against the Ducks. My favorite goaltender is in San Antonio, Ville Husso. The future is always better, right? Just like the future years on that Brent Seabrook contract. Alllllllof those future years.

Q. Mike Yeo probably sucks. Do you realize this or has the Budweiser made in your town killed enough brain cells so that you don’t know it yet?

A. Mike Yeo is not an especially creative man. Mike Yeo is not what you would call an inspirational leader. Mike Yeo’s teams consistently finish fourth in the division — fifth last year. He doesn’t have a good track record with cultivating young players. His teams don’t play especially well on the power play. He’s trying something new this season by playing guys who actually have skill on the fourth line, including the center you’re going to hate in the future, Robert Thomas. He might not ruin young speedster Jordan Kyrou. Chris Thorburn hasn’t suited for a game (YET). However, if the Blues struggle to string some wins together the first half of the season, it’s important to remember that Mike Yeo has one year left on his contract after this season. Also, Craig Berube, who has experience stepping in mid-season as an NHL head coach, is behind the bench as the associate head coach. I’m not saying the coaching career of Mike Yeo in St. Louis is on life support, but I think I got a notification Yeo recently updated his LinkedIn profile. And if Yeo starts coaching to avoid getting fired, he’ll only get fired.

Q. Who is the one guy on the Blues who is most valuable to the team so one of the unskilled Hawks players (too many to mention!) can sweep the leg and send him to injured reserve?

A. Well the defense looked like an over-baked tomato casserole you Chicagoans call pizza — thick, gooey and liable to cause a heart attack — without Edmundson, but the easy answer here is Jaden Schwartz. The undersized dynamo is every hockey fan’s wet dream. He’s fearless, hard to push off the puck and maybe the smartest hockey player on the roster. His next bad decision with the puck will be the first I remember. When he broke his ankle in Detroit last December, the Blues fell from the top of the conference to out of playoff position. Hating the Red Wings, something Chicago and St. Louis fans can unite around. Anyway, don’t put your grubby paws on him.

Q. Thanks for doing this, Brad. Writing the questions and giving the answers too? I’m paying you double. Last question: I saw on Twitter that some Hawks fans bought your paper last weekend in St. Louis. I’m sure they hated it, but does that make Game Time the best fan-run paper in the NHL?

A. Yes. But it’s important to mention that it’s the only one.

Game #5 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #5 – Blues vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Joel Edmundson Is Just The Latest Savior

By Sam Fels October 13, 2018 1758 0

You’ll see this in Brad Lee’s manifesto in the Q&A. It’s not the first or last time you’ll hear it either. You can change the names, the era, whatever else, there’s always someone new who is going to save the Blues from the back end. It was Erik Johnson once. It was Kirk ShattenKevin at another point. Remember when it was Chris Pronger? That almost worked! Then it was Alex PuceJello. Or maybe it was Colton Burpo. We do get them confused, seeing as how they all look the same trailing the play. Apparently, now it’s Joel Edmundson.

We can’t tell you why. It looks to us like “Joel Edmundson” is just another term for “Robert Bortuzzo.” Except without any of the Disco Stu jokes. Sure, he’s big at 6-4, 215. Boy the Blues sure do love them some big d-men. Hey, quick question, who was the last Cup winner with a raft of big d-men? Can’t think of one? Yeah, exactly. We’re sure the Jets are just quaking at the thought of their so teeny, so slow forwards having to put up with this Godzilla-conquerer in a playoff series.

Oh right, Edmundson plays “with an edge.” Generally that means he plays dumb. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s true! More than 60 penalty minutes in all three of his seasons. Running out of position to make hits to make a “statement,” which is usually, “I’m a shaved ape and I think Filip Forsberg just went around me again.” But hey, he looks great punching people in the back of the head after a whistle. They actually scout for that in St. Louis.

Sure, he’s a better partner for Alex PlayaCarmello than Jabe O’Meester. So’s a police horse that’s retired. But just look at that beard! So rugged. So dark. It just screams, “I eat Hardee’s between periods!” With that beard and vacant look in his eyes he could be a Cardinal! That’s really what they’re after.

But don’t worry, folks. When the Blues are done getting blitzed in another playoff series because their defense was too dumb and too slow, it’ll be Jake Allen‘s fault. And that will likely be true, which will be great because we get at least one more season of Blues fans screaming from the Ozark-tops that Edmundson and Parayko are this generation’s Pronger and Niedermayer. But extra tough. And then they’ll flex and pull four muscles and rip three ligaments.

Game #5 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #5 – Blues vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels October 13, 2018 1042 0

Game #5 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #5 – Blues vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels October 13, 2018 1424 0

Game #5 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Absolut Duncan

By Sam Fels October 12, 2018 2366 0

Let’s continue Duncan Keith Week with a video:

I could talk about this goal for hours, probably. One, I’m not sure I’ve ever yelled louder at a sporting event than this one, and you can ask former editor Matthew Killion to confirm. There was a lot going into this night for all of us, and me especially, but we don’t have to get into that here. Surface level, the Hawks had a chance to clinch the Cup at home for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the Earth. A scoreless first period only built up the tension, and the fact that much like the rest of the series, the Hawks were kind of outplayed up to this point. Corey Crawford had to stop Steven Stamkos twice on the same breakaway, they didn’t create much, and slowly what seemed a certainty began to be a question.

And much like the rest of that run, Duncan Keith decided he’d simply had enough. Usually, when there are four opposing skaters back in the zone is not the time to go shotgunning up the ice if you’re a d-man. But Keith has never continually bent to logic, and what made his game so special is that he didn’t and it usually worked. After all, Kane had the puck, so if he could find a pocket of space, chances are Kane would find him.

Maybe my favorite part of this is Keith simply streaking around Cedric Pacquette for the rebound, as Pacquette didn’t shut his yap for the first half of the series amidst all the press about how he was the ultimate checking center and pest, especially after the Lightning’s Game 3 win. They didn’t win another game and we didn’t hear much from him after that. Keith left him with his dick in his hand and that’s all he’d win after this.

In the building, it happened in slow motion. The rebound we never expected to see lying there, practically teasing everyone, because Keith’s initial shot wasn’t all that strong. The arc he took around Pacquette at a speed that didn’t seem possible, and the realization, “He’s going to get there.” And that he would have an open look from three feet (and one you’ll recall he whiffed on in 2011 against the Red Wings that would have gotten the Hawks into the playoffs, which they backdoored into anyway). It’s the amount of separation he gets from everyone else at this moment. No one would have caught him with a jet engine up their ass.

One of the few things Eddie Olczyk and I agree on is that the United Center has never been louder than when this puck flipped up over Ben Bishop. Sure, it was only the second period, but the Hawks weren’t giving up that lead. The catharsis at the moment in that building was real. Clawing back a dream we’d had all our lives. Mostly because they had Duncan Keith and the Lightning didn’t.

That 2015 run is not only Keith’s masterpiece, you’d be hard-pressed to find another playoff performance in this city anywhere that doesn’t involve the words “Jordan.” Both the Cubs and Sox World Series runs were basically team-efforts. The Hawks’ two previous runs were the same, though Keith was among the standouts in those. I guess we’ll have to wait until Khalil Mack’s 10-sack run to the Super Bowl sometime soon.

He scored three goals in that run. One was the OT winner in Game 1 against Nashville. The second was the series clincher against the Predators, and the Hawks desperately needed both or at best they would have been facing a Game 7 on the road. The third was this. That’s certainly making them count.

In between, Keith averaged 31 minutes a night. He gobbled up 44% of the team’s even-strength time, a number only topped by Kris Letang in ’16 for a team that went beyond the second round in the last seven years (fun note: the hightest TOI% of a playoff year is also Keith’s, which was 47% in 2016’s first round). His relative-corsi in the spring of ’15 was +5.4. His relative-xGF% was an unholy +8.7. When Keith was on the ice the Hawks were dangerous and dominant. When he wasn’t, they were clinging with their nails to the side of the dock.

You don’t need the numbers to know how good he was that spring. Thanks to Kimmo Timonen being dead and Michal Rozsival’s ankle becoming a modern art piece against Minnesota, the Hawks only had four d-men for the last two rounds. They had to survive them, and I’m not quite sure how they did other than Bruce Boudreau’s team playing with both hands around its neck again when the lights were brightest and Keith and Crawford at their best in the Final. If it seemed like Keith was never off the ice in the last 13 games, it’s because he wasn’t. The least he played in the last two rounds was 27:23 in Game 5 against the Ducks. Against the Bolts it was never less than 29 minutes. And again, he was utterly dominant in those.

It was barely controlled fury. It was more than the usual Keith-stepping-up-into-the-neutral-zone shit. He was on both sides. He was up the ice and then back. He was stripping someone behind the net, calling Kesler a fuckwad, and then joining the play, seemingly in one motion. You can only play four d-men in a game if on is insistent on being two or three at the same time.

This goal was kind of a microcosm of all 23 games. Keith deciding he’d had enough, streaking somewhere you never figured him to be and no one able to get in his way. Whether it was a goal to be scored or a forward to be dispossessed, Keith was on it like a pissed off bowling ball. Keith basically decided the Hawks were going to win a Cup. And then he did almost all of the heavy lifting.

We know that Keith will never do that again, and maybe that tapped all the reserves for good. I know it was worth it.

Everything Else

Game #4 – Hawks vs. Wild Preview: And A Fool In The Mirror

By Sam Fels October 11, 2018 1881 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 2-0-1 Wild 0-1-1

PUCK DROP: 7pm Central

TV: WGN

SO THEY PHONED IT IN, END OF STORY: Hockey Wilderness

The current Circus Of The Western Conference rolls into St. Paul, Minnesota tonight, as the Hawks seek to continue their “points streak” against the Wild. That’s what it is, right? I mean, technically the Hawks have lost. But it was in the carnival game that the NHL calls overtime. So that doesn’t really count. Whatever. The Hawks have been fun, and they have an excellent chance of keeping it rolling tonight. And they’ll find the same thing they’ve found at the X for just about four seasons running.

Let’s start with the Westside Hockey Club. A couple changes look likely tonight. One, Alexandre Fortin, whom the Hawks have been trying to promote for about two seasons now, will make his NHL debut tonight. This is definitely in the can’t-hurt-could-help category. He’ll slot in next to Artem Anisimov and on the opposite side of Chris Kunitz, which has actually been a pretty effective line in highly-sheltered use.

That will slot David Kampf to the fourth line, which it probably could use. Marcus Kruger moves back into the middle, in yet another victory for logic. Either SuckBag Johnson or John Hayden will sit, and I would guess the former. The fourth line could certainly use the injection of speed that Kampf has and certainly Kruger’s brain in the middle. Sure, SuckBag was fast but it doesn’t really matter if you’re fast if you have no idea where you’re going. You just get nowhere faster.

Still appears that Cam Ward will play, and Brandon Davidson will continue to enjoy the popcorn. They’re going to make this Brandon Manning thing work if it kills them. Or the Jan Rutta thing. And either or both could.

Things aren’t nearly as rosy in the Land Of 10,000 Lakes, where the Wild have basically gotten pummeled in two games so far. They were able to scratch out a point against the Knights Who Say Golden thanks to Devan Dubnyk making 41 saves. They didn’t even crack a 40% share of attempts in either game, nor have they been above that mark in expected-goals percentage for those two games. It’s a whole lot of not pretty so far.

The Wild have a few problems causing that. One, Ryan Suter is not Ryan Suter. The ankle injury he suffered that ended his last season early have not cleared up yet, or at least are hampering him. And Matt Dumba just hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. A 33% CF% against the Knights would be the opposite of picking up the slack. That would be taking the slack and trying to fashion a belt-tie combo while you’re climbing partner plummets to death or serious injury.

Normally, Jared Spurgeon does some heavy lifting from the second-pairing, but that hasn’t happened either. Compounding that is the fact the Wild haven’t really upgraded their forwards in any way in like four seasons. They brought Eric Staal back, but he was there last year. They re-signed Jason Zucker, who will assuredly score tonight against the Hawks because that’s a thing that he does, but he’s not someone you build a team around. He’s also not going to shoot 15% again, or at least likely isn’t to.

Mikko Koivu is old. Joel Eriksson Ek, while sounding like a rare disease, isn’t going to pull any Atlas act. Mikael Granlund is just enough to break your heart. Nino Neiderreiter is marauding on the third line for some reason. Jordan Greenway is still figuring out how to fit his gangly frame into an NHL game. It’s not that they lack firepower at all. It’s just that they don’t have advanced weaponry.

You could get away with these forwards if you had a stellar blue line. You could carry that blue line if you had a crew of fast, skilled forwards on lines one through four. The Wild don’t have the two things that need to made up for, not either of the things that do the making up.

So basically, once again, they’re good enough to let Devan Dubnyk carry them into the playoffs if he has another .920 season. He’s more than capable of that of course, but the Wild won’t go anywhere if he doesn’t. That’s not really enough in this division which is The Unblinking Eye.

For tonight, the Hawks just need to keep running n’ gunning. The Wild can’t really do it with them, and then you’re just up to the whims of Dubnyk. You can past this blue line. You can catch back up to these forwards. Let’s have some fun.

Game #4 Preview Suite