Sam Fels – Page 151 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Game #22 – Hawks vs. Capitals Douchebag Du Jour: A Workplace Danger And A Union Problem

By Sam Fels November 21, 2018 1747 0

There’s nothing we can say about Tom Wilson that we haven’t already. So let’s stick with the current problem.

Here’s the thing about this galactic dumbass. When he cleared out Oscar Sundqvist of the Blues in the preseason, one has to wonder what he was trying to accomplish. Wilson is no longer some knuckle-dragging grunt who is desperate to make an NHL roster. He should be, and probably even below that, but he’s not. His role on the Caps is well carved out. So there was nothing to be gained from turning into a meteor in a preseason game other than hurting someone. It certainly wasn’t for “the win.”

So either Wilson pathologically needs to hurt people, or he’s incapable of turning it off, even in the preseason. Neither is acceptable. Doubling down on this, Wilson obviously refuses to see what he did wrong and never has. So you can be sure this will happen again.

What’s galling on top of that is that the NHLPA seems to forget who it represents at all times. There’s this automatic trigger that they have to appeal every suspension and defend every player who get disciplined by the league. But the union also represents Sundqvist. And it represents every other player that Wilson has tried to paralyze or will try to maim in the future. There’s a greater good here.

Wilson simply makes it dangerous for everyone else to perform their job. While all NHL players accept that there’s a danger inherent to the job, what they don’t accept is someone acting outside the boundaries either because he’s a loon, an incomprehensible moron, or both. That’s not what they signed up for, and if you asked most of them off the record they’d probably tell you they’d like to see Wilson taken out behind the woodshed by the union’s leadership.

There is no other sport, or even industry, that would accept an employee running around putting the very livelihoods of their coworkers in jeopardy. Even football doesn’t really accept this kind of horseshit, or at least is getting there. At least football knows where its money is made.

Hockey can’t seem to get that right. Wilson’s original quarter-season suspension seemed like a start, but of course the union found their friendly arbitrator and got it reduced by almost half. And the lesson for Wilson is that he’ll always have someone to fight for him and he doesn’t have to correct anything.

The union should be fighting for all the members who are in danger thanks to this abomination of a player. Maybe they’ll get around to it when he does actually end a career, which he seems intent on doing.

Game #22 Preview Suite

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Game #22 – Hawks vs. Capitals: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels November 21, 2018 1412 0

Game #22 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #22 – Hawks vs. Capitals: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels November 21, 2018 1421 0

Game #22 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Your Awards At The Quarter Mark

By Sam Fels November 20, 2018 1800 0

Something I like to do at the landmarks of every season. Most of these are the players that should win certain awards on analytic bases. But they probably won’t. And remember, the “quarter-pole” is when there’s a quarter of the race or season left, and you’ll hear plenty make this mistake. Including Pat Foley on Sunday night, which should never happen considering who is broadcast partner is. Anyway…

Hart Trophy – MVP: Conor McDavid or Patrice Bergeron

The problem with MVP debates in every sport in this country is that they split between “Player Of The Year” candidates, which is what the award should be, and some nebulous, indefinable “What This Player Means To His Team” connotation. And no one is going to hear the other side, and I’m one of them. As it seems to me, “most valuable” means “has the most value,” it’s simple. And you’ll never be able to define what would happen if you remove a player from a team without any doubt. Call me a lunatic, but removing the best player from any team is probably going to irreparably damage it.

Anyway, Connor McDavid is the best player in the league. So you don’t have to overthink it. Yes, a section of Avalanche fans (ones with names like “Anthrax”) are going to come running with weaponry in hand about Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, who should have won it last year. They have each other and Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog. McDavid has been playing with Nugent-Hopkins and a various sculptures made of boogers.

You could also give this to Patrice Bergeron, and it will be the only time you can as he’s going to miss the next month. The Bruins have half of a roster and are still near the top of the Atlantic because Bergeron has kept their one line humming. See what happens to Brad Marchand now.

Vezina – Best Goalie: Pekka Rinne

I don’t like it any more than you, but he’s been the best goalie. He’s got the best overall SV% of any starter, the best SV% at even-strength of any starter, and the best difference between his expected save-percentage and his actual save-percentage at evens. That’s a clean sweep.

Selke – Best Defensive Forward: Jonathan Marchessault

Ah, here’s where the fun begins. Normally, the Selke goes to whatever forward scores a lot and everyone knows wins a lot of draws, or it just goes to Patrice Bergeron. And Bergeron is never a wrong choice, but we can do better this year. If you’re looking for best defensive forward, then you want someone who keeps attempts down, keeps chances down, keeps scoring down. And Marchessault, and his linemates William Karlsson and Reilly Smith, are doing that better than anyone right now.

Marchessault leads all forwards in Corsi-against per 60, shots-against per 60, and expected goals-against per 60. Karlsson and Smith aren’t far behind him, so you can claim that’s all the line’s work. But any defensive forward is going to be hard to separate from the rest of his line. Marchessault is starting 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which is one of the lower marks in the league among forwards who have amassed 300 minutes of even-strength time. Anze Kopitar actually starts the least amount of shifts in the offensive zone, and his metrics aren’t that far behind Marchessault’s, so if you want to make a case for him I’d listen. Actually, I won’t, because Kings fans have spent so much time spilling out their bladders about how they get no award attention that they should all be punted into the ocean.

This award never goes to a winger though, otherwise Marian Hossa would have at least one. But if hockey voting is going to catch up to the rest of the world, it should. Marchessault is your clubhouse leader.

Norris Trophy – Best D-man: Justin Faulk

Yeah, that’s fucking right. I’m gonna hand this to a guy with just eight points. Because I’m fucking crazy. TALK TO ME WHN YOU’RE ON MY BLOCK.

The Norris suffers from a lack of definition as well. It almost always goes to the blue-liner who scores the most. And then there’s a nutcase faction that wants it to be the Rod Langway Award (James Mirtle’s term), which means figuring out who the best defensive defenseman is. And we can do that, but stick with me.

So you basically have to synthesize the two. A d-man’s job is over all 200 feet of the ice these days, so they have to be able to do both. And Faulk is doing it better than anyone.

Faulk has the league’s best Corsi-percentage and expected-goals percentage. He has the lowest Corsi, shots, and expected goals against per 60. While he plays on a possession monster of a team, he’s still well above the team-rate in all of this.

The knock is going to be the eight points. Fine. Faulk is shooting 1.7%, and he’s a career 6% shooter. That goals-total is going to shoot up. Faulk’s major problem is that his team is only shooting 6.8% while he’s on the ice, and given the lack of front-line scoring on the Canes, that might not improve that much to vault his assist totals to where anyone will notice him for this award.

But that’s out of Faulk’s hands. The things he can control, he’s dominated. And if we’re forward thinking and living in a world where Jacob deGrom wins a Cy Young with 10 wins and everyone is like, “Well of course he did because he was the best pitcher and the Mets are a Soviet era cartoon,” then we can do better with hockey’s awards.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 19th

By Sam Fels November 19, 2018 1161 0

First Screen Viewing

Lightning vs. Predators – 7pm

Well if you talk to anyone clad in yellow, this is your Final preview. If you talk to anyone who’s not, they’ll probably tell you that any dip in goaltending from Rinne and Saros will see the Preds short on scoring. But that’s another discussion for another time. This is another clash between two of the league’s Fab Five, so it’s worth seeing. The Bolts have won their last two but have had a slightly leaky problem (that happens to men of a certain age) given that Andrie Vasilevskiy is on the shelf for weeks and Louis Domingue is Louis Domingue. The Preds had lost three in a row but were able to take their free spot on the bingo card with the visit of the Kings on Saturday (it’s what you’re supposed to do to the Kings). The Preds clocked the Bolts pretty hard at the beginning of the month with a 4-1 win in Tampa. So enjoy the last one of these. Unless they play in June. Which they won’t.

Second Screen Viewing

Blue Jackets vs. Leafs – 6pm

Did you know the Jackets are 12-6-2? I didn’t, and I’m guessing you didn’t either. And I bet you’re asking yourself if it matters that they are. And whether you should care or not. And I’m fairly sure the answer to both of those is a hard no. They’re first in the Metro because someone has to be, and the Penguins have decided to not care and the Caps have decided to still be drunk and the Flyers have decided to still be the Flyers and all the New York area teams blow and can’t decide what they are. It doesn’t matter because the Jackets two best players are already checking out property listings elsewhere, and one or both might have to go in the middle of the season to sink the whole thing. And Torts is bitching about how much he hates the league and everyone in it. All of this sounds like something that will see the Jackets balloon sink at some point. Anyway, they play the Leafs. Who are definitely not sinking even without Matthews. Somehow this is all a referendum on William Nylander and the economic system at large. Whatever.

Other Games

Stars vs. Rangers – 6pm

Sabres vs. Penguins – 6pm

Capitals vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Panthers vs. Senators – 6:30

Kings vs. Blues – 7pm

Knights vs. Flames – 8pm

Jets vs. Canucks – 9pm

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – Course Correction

By Sam Fels November 19, 2018 2106 0

Who was good, who was bad, and the in-between on another week on the Good Ship Blackhawks.

The Dizzying Highs

Brandon Saad – In a week where your team only scores four goals that involved beating an actual goalie (so not Kahun’s empty-netter) and you’ve got two of them, I’d say you’re making a difference. Saad also spent the week playing on three different lines. His Corsi-relative an scoring-change-relative numbers against the Kings and Wild were miles ahead of his teammates, even if most of those games were spent with the nuclear option of Kane and Toews. But hey, if they’re Khalil Mack-ing people around the ice (it’s a verb now), no one’s going to care. His goal last night is actually what you think of when you think of a Saad goal, streaking past a confused d-man who only made one wrong half move, holding him off with barely a thought, and getting around the goalie. Yes, maybe it should happen more often. But it’s happening now, and maybe it will continue. Let’s just be happy about it, all right? All right.

The Terrifying Lows

Duncan Keith – If you’re going by metrics, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook spent the week getting their brains beaten in by whatever opposition was on the ice. They didn’t top a 40% share of attempts in any of the three games, nor in scoring chance share, and on Friday against L.A.–who are staffed by interns on quaaludes, essentially–they managed an 18% mark in scoring chance share. In the words of Muhammad Ali, “THAT’S BAD!” And not like he meant it. If you want to be fair, and you do because this is Duncan Keith we’re talking about, he and Seabrook have been taking more defensive zone shifts than usual. And their ice-flipping days are probably over. But the Hawks also probably need something more than them turtling when their on the ice if they’re going to go anywhere. Pairing them together isn’t helping, but we also saw what happened when Keith was paired with someone he was supposed to take a backseat to in the aggressive department. I’m not sure what the answers are here, and whatever they are and are discovered I’m fairly sure Keith isn’t going to like them.

The Creamy Middles

Corey Crawford – Hmm, Crow’s back to a .922 SV%. The Hawks took five of the six points on offer in his last three starts when he put up only a .981 SV%, including his first shutout of the season. Isn’t that strange how that works. But this is what you expect of Corey, or at least what we expect, given that he’s been, y’know, one of the five best goalies in the league for like five seasons now. Sure, don’t make him have to come up with 39 saves every night. But this team isn’t going to get him down around 27 or 28 a night either. They’ll go as far as he does. Like this, that’s five of six points.

Everything Else

Game #21 – Wild vs Hawks Preview: Maybe I’m Just Too Demanding

By Sam Fels November 18, 2018 1949 0

vs.

RECORDS: Wild 12-6-2 Hawks 7-8-5

PUCK DROP: 5pm

TV: WGN, NHL Network for those outside the 606

ANIMALS STRIKING CURIOUS POSES: Hockey Wilderness

After playing two games that would be considered a war crime if you made any prisoner watch them, the Hawks will get a chance to open up things a little tonight. Or this afternoon. 5pm exists in that nebulous area where it depends on the time of year whether it’s night or afternoon. Let’s go with evening. Anyway, they’ll face one of the hotter teams in the league in the Minnesota Wild.

This is where other people would tell you that the Wild mean business this time. That their faster ways are indicative of a team that knows it’s on the precipice of being blown up and has maybe one more chance and is finally going to take it. And I’m supposed to tell you as long as Devan Dubnyk is healthy (and ugly) and doing Doobie Brother things, the Wild have a puncher’s chance. That’s what I’m supposed to say.

But you know what I’m going to say. This is just more of the same from Bruce “Are You Gonna Finish That?” Boudreau and his charges. His “GO GO GO BURRITO DORITO FIESTA ANTIPASTO” method of coaching works great in the regular season, especially one like this that’s been so open. And his team will play harder than most everyone who couldn’t locate a fuck to give come February. And then his lack of any structure or Plan B (or even Plan A) will doom the Wild to getting it upside the head by the Jets or Predators or Sharks. That’s how this goes. You know how this goes. You’ve seen this before.

This version features a Mikael Granlund shooting 27%, which has him making an assault on his career-high in goals already. It’s 26 if you must know. Zach Parise has returned from whatever bionic implant procedure he had to have most recently and is averaging close to a point per game. Mikko Koivu drank the mermaid’s tear and is also near a point per game on a line with Parise. All of this sure sounds sustainable!

The Wild do have something of a newish weapon on defense in a fully operational Matthew Dumba. He had 50 points last year, bet you didn’t know that, but he’s already at eight goals so far this term. He’s a real weapon on the power play where his shot is quite powerful and accurate, so hopefully the Hawks d-men take notes. Ryan Suter has been happy to cede the puck-moving responsibilities to him on the top pairing, so hopefully Duncan Keith takes notes on that (he won’t). Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin remain one of the more underrated second pairings in the league, where Spurgeon’s size doesn’t preclude him from moving the puck in the right direction most of the time.

Dubnyk started last night in a loss to the Sabres, so the Hawks may benefit from the rare appearance of Alex Stalock (Alex Stalock…at this time of year…at this time of day…in this part of the country….localized in the United Center). But then again the Hawks couldn’t really solve whatever parking lot attendant was backstopping the Kings on Friday. And also Boudreau likes to turn his starters into paste by March so don’t be shocked if Gabby runs Dubs right back out there.

The statistical oddity about the Wild, and this was the case last year as well, is that they don’t get the majority of attempts but they do get the majority of good chances. They’re below water in Corsi but one of the league’s best in xGF%. They limit chances and their high-rate of speed in the top nine does get them to the net. This became a huge problem for the Hawks in their game at The X when their slow defense couldn’t protect a lead against these forwards when they were fully off the leash. Hard to see how that gets better tonight.

The Hawks will have a bit of a reshuffle, with the nuclear option of Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane forming a top line and Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat dragging around the carcass of Artem Anisimov. Fortin-Kampf-Kahun will form an at least quick third line, which could be something of a checking unit if need be. It won’t score much, but it could create some havoc. We’ll see. Jan Rutta comes in from the cold to partner Gustav Forsling, with Stan Bowman in the suite with fingers and toes crosses that tonight is finally the night his vision comes to life of that pairing. Corey Crawford gets the start.

The Hawks get a schedule advantage tonight, not having played last night and waiting for the Wild who did. They get a backup possibly. They put up something of a beer fart of an effort on Friday, but the Wild are not going to sink and trap and try and keep things quiet like the Kings and Blues did. The Hawks don’t really have the creativity, especially in the back, to work their way through those kind of trenches consistently. It’ll be more open tonight. But it also might be too open for a defense that can’t really move or do well under extreme pressure.

So the Hawks struggle against real conservatism. They can’t handle high-pressure. That’s just about every team in the league covered.

Fuck me.

Game #21 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #21 – Wild vs. Hawks Spotlight: Judgement Is Coming For Charlie Coyle

By Sam Fels November 18, 2018 1437 0

As Brent Burns racks up Norris finalist nominations and an award, continues to put up record shooting numbers and dominate play with a Stanley Cup contender, Wild fans must look at Charlie Coyle like that Christmas gift from that aunt you never liked that sits in the closet. It was a time and place for something wonderful. It became a a shoe-buffer.

Coyle has never been bad. He’s carved out pretty much a third-line role. He’s floated between center and wing for years, playing both capably. And yet you see the size and speed and hands and you wonder how it’s amounted only one season where he averaged more than a point every two games. There is a feeling of something missed.

What’s particularly galling, is that at 6-3, 220 pounds, Coyle has never managed to put up more than two shots per game in any season. He’s come close only once. With that size and mobility, Coyle should be able to get wherever he wants in the offensive zone. He should be a player who can create his own shot consistently, and yet he’s been subservient to whoever his linemates are.

It’s more infuriating because Coyle has a great shot and scored at a high-percentage. He has a career SH% of 11.2. That’s probably due to Coyle mostly scoring from in close when he does get to the net, as his stature suggests he should at a regular basis. But why isn’t he there more often? Just for giggles, Burns has been averaging three to four shots per game and he plays on defense.

In essence, Coyle is the Wild’s Brandon Saad. You’ll see a game here or there where he looks unplayable. And then you wonder why it isn’t there for the next five games.

But unlike Saad, Coyle hasn’t been identified as a staple of future Wild teams. The Wild brought in a new GM this past summer in Paul Fenton. His charge will be to get the Wild to be something more than the background scenery they’ve been…well, since they came into existence. What the Wild lack, and have lacked, it a front-line forward or d-man, at least one to pair with Ryan Suter. They also lack cap space.

Coyle probably doesn’t get them either. But if he’s going to have trade value, it’s probably at the deadline. Coyle has another year left on his deal after this one, and he’s one of the non-crippling cap hits on the Wild (all too rare). He’s only at $3.2M. If there’s a GM that thinks he can unlock the 55+ point player Coyle can and should be, that’s a snip.

Fenton is going to want to make changes somewhere. The Wild need some sort of shakeup, or at least that was the thinking after yet another first-round exit last year. The Dubnyk De Soleil has never gotten them much, and there has to be more. There also isn’t a lot of flexibility. Parise and Suter aren’t going anywhere. Neither are Dumba, Spurgeon. Niederreiter is over $5M and would be harder to move, and is also signed until 2022. Jason Zucker was just re-upped. They’ve tried to move Jonas Brodin for years, with not much luck.

Coyle will either disappoint and be moved along as a show of trying to improve things, or at least change them. Or he’ll turn it around finally, and prove to be a pillar of whatever the Wild are going to be. He’s still only 26. Either way, the waiting is almost over for Wild fans and Coyle.

Game #21 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #21 – Wild vs. Hawks Q&A: Giles Ferrell

By Sam Fels November 18, 2018 1503 0

Giles Ferrell covers the Wild for ZoneCoverage.com. He’s also a Red, which means he’s thoroughly charming and smart. Follow him @GilesFerrell.

The Wild are currently splitting the Preds and Jets in the standings. They’ve won six of seven. Are they really this good or just on a hot streak and will settle in?

Given how badly the Wild were waxed last season by Winnipeg, I still think the Jets will make up ground and jump the Wild in the standings. But it is unreal how well the Wild are playing right now and the pessimist in me tends to think at some point these guys will come down back to life a bit. Mikko Koivu is defying his age — 35 — and is averaging nearly a point per game this season. Zach Parise is also almost at a point per game pace and we were openly wondering just how much hockey this guy had left in him a year ago because of his crippling injury. Mikael Granlund is shooting an unsustainable 27% right now because everyone is respecting the [redacted] out of his pass-first tendencies. If these guys were to cool off or miss time with injury, it is very possible — because Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter have struggled just about all season — the Wild will come back down to earth.

The underlying numbers suggest the Wild don’t generate more attempts than their opponents, but they do generate more good chances. Is that what you see?

This is very true. Chances have been few and far between for the Wild early on this season, but they have made the most of those chances. Something besides Granlund realizing his stick was also for shooting in addition to passing is that the Wild have done really well at getting into the dirty areas this season and creating more garbage goals, with Parise leading the charge on that. The guy has returned to a form that not even has been seen in a Wild uniform. But they are also getting ridiculous contributions from their bottom six, as they really do outwork their opponents to draw penalties and/or create scoring opportunities.

Our dear boy Nino Niederreiter only has one goal. Something amiss here or just rotten luck with his 3% shooting percentage?

It has been most painful to watch Nino Niederreiter this season as you can hear him on the television grind his stick into sawdust every freaking shift. He just needs a goal or two to come out of this — and he got one Thursday night on a redirection — but good lord this is not the kind of start he needed with a new boss looking on to make “tweaks” to this roster. So many missed empty nets/golden chances on his part this season. If I had a dollar for every time he has looked up into the rafters after missing a glorious chance I could afford to buy the Timberwolves and fire Tom Thibodeau into the sun. For Nino’s sake, and for Wild fans’ sake, he needs to get it together real soon.

Devan Dubnyk has played in 14 of the Wild’s 18 games. Any fear it may be too heavy of a workload for a goalie in his 30s now?

As the most noted listeners of the Giles and the Goalie podcast would point out, I have been banging this drum for a few years now. The Wild have been so crunched to the cap year after year they can not afford a decent backup goalie to give Dubnyk some extra nights off. Alex Stalock has been alright this year, but I don’t think his body of work inspires Boudreau to give him any extra nights in goal as of yet. Credit to Dubnyk is that he continues to perform at a high caliber level despite the heavy work load. But at some point, this too will be catching up with the Wild. Paul Fenton better hope it is not this year.

Game #21 Preview Suite