Notes: Arvidsson, Forsberg, and Subban remain out…the Preds have lost six of their last eight road games…Rinne has been a touch iffy the last little bit, giving up 11 goals in his last four outings and getting pulled last night…Smith is on a bit of a heater, with three goals in his last five games…if the Hawks couldn’t handle a fourth line with Ryan Reaves on it, wait until they get a load of this one…
Notes: Well look at this happy horseshit…
Game #36 Preview Suite
There are very few players whose switching of conferences can change the entire outlook of one. So when one of those actually does switch conferences, and he doesn’t light up the world and then tear a hole in it that he fills with peanut butter cups, most are inclined to tell you he’s a disappointment. Erik Karlsson is one of those players of the three or four there are. And most think he’s having a down season. In some ways, he’s actually having his best.
Yes, there are only two goals. Yes, none of them are at even-strength. His points-per-game are his lowest in about seven years. We get all that. And yet on the most talented team he’s ever played on (it’s not even close), Karlsson has the best relative stats of his career.
Karlsson’ +7.07% Corsi-relative is the second highest mark of his career, only bested by his ’15-’16 when he should have been racking up a third Norris instead of having Kings fans wet their bed so much they nearly solved the California drought problem to get Drew Doughty his. His relative-xGF% of +8.91 blows anything else he’s done in his career out of the water. When Karlsson is on the ice, the Sharks are getting far more good scoring chances than the other team, they just haven’t buried as many of them.
There are caveats. Because the Sharks, unlike the Senators at any time, have other good d-men (including a Team Canada worthy ones in Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Brent Burns), Karlsson doesn’t have to do everything for them. So he’s starting nearly 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone, also a career-high. And his quality of competition has dipped a little, as the really hard stuff is left for Vlasic and Justin Braun. They always did the mine-sweeping for Burns, and now they’re doing it for Karlsson as well. That said, you can’t ask more of Karlsson than to simply turn the opponent into a pot pie with that, and Karlsson is doing so.
Karlsson’s lack of goals is curious, as this is the second straight season his shooting-percentage has dipped. He shot 4.6% last year and this year it’s 1.9%. That seems ridiculously low. Even stranger is that Karlsson is getting more shots than he has in four seasons, over three per game. You can expect a binge somewhere around here that will make his points-total look a little more like we’re accustomed to seeing.
Which leads directly to questions about Karlsson’s future. It could already be sorted, of course, as the Sharks aren’t allowed to sign Karlsson to an extension until the new year. Perhaps they have a handshake agreement already. If they don’t, it gets a little tricky. The Sharks have something around $28M in space for next year, which seems enough. But Joe Pavelski is a free agent. So is Joe Thornton. Joonas Donskoi will also be a UFA, and Timo Meier–fresh off what looks to be a career season–is going to be RFA.
The Sharks may be secretly hoping Thornton retires, and maybe a Cup win assures that. Without him, it could still be a trick, as even at Pavelski’s age he’s due a raise from $6M a year. Meier’s raise will be huge. Donskoi’s slightly less. And then you figure Karlsson is looking at Doughty money of $11M or $12M a year. It can be done, but it’s going to be a squeeze.
If there’s a bidding war for EK, it’s hard to figure what kind of years will be acceptable. He will be 29 when he hits the market. His skating doesn’t figure to deteriorate at a rate that will make him a problem for a while, because it’s so far above the mean. But how much can he lose before he can’t dominate? Another team can’t ask him to do everything, but not every team comes with a Vlasic to keep him shielded either. He’s going to want the boat of seven years, but like anything else the last three years of such a deal would be ugly.
Then again, no one else does what he can do.
Could the Hawks swing it? Maybe, though convincing him to come to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in two seasons will take quite the presentation. They could ask Keith and Murphy to simply be the human shield, but neither has proven at this point in time they can handle that level of competition. Could Jokiharju and Murphy do it? The Hawks will have what they hope is Baby Karlsson in Adam Boqvist, so who better to show him the way?
If the Hawks are looking for a quick turnaround though, he makes that far more possible than Artemi Panarin. Maybe you just do it and figure out the rest later.
Game #35 Preview Suite
@ItWasThreeZero followed us home one day. We fed him at the back door of the building. He won’t leave us alone. We figure we can at least use him to get Sharks info.
Three points behind the Flames isn’t where the Sharks were supposed to be. Everything metrically looks great, so is their lack of taking off simply down to Martin Jones?
A lot of it is. It’s hard to win games when your starting goalie is throwing up a sub-.900 SV% for the majority of the season. That said the Sharks are also top third in the league at yielding high-danger scoring chances so they haven’t been doing Jones or Aaron Dell many favors. The team adopted a higher-risk, higher-reward style of play in the middle of last season in response to Vegas’ success and while it’s made them infinitely more bearable to watch than the previous iteration of Peter DeBoer hockey, it’s also resulted in giving up quite a few more five-alarm chances. Still, it’s not unreasonable to expect Jones to at least be within striking distance of league average and once he starts trending in that direction the Sharks theoretically have the offense, possession numbers and penalty killing to run away with the division.
Is it really worth complaining about Erik Karlsson, as some have done, when he’s got 21 points and appears to be driving the play as he always has?
Nah. Karlsson has clearly been the team’s best overall player to anyone watching the games and controls the pace of play every time he’s on the ice. What is concerning is that, over a third of the way through the season, the coaching staff still hasn’t quite figured out how to use him. They’ve paired Karlsson with Brenden Dillon at even strength despite how dominant the pairing of Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic was to start the season. They haven’t figured out how to best combine Karlsson and Brent Burns’ talents on a single power play unit, often having Kevin Labanc quarterback the struggling man advantage instead. Then they turn around and throw arguably the two most offensively dynamic defensemen in the league out there together in bizarre situations, like on the penalty kill or a defensive zone faceoff. I don’t think the Sharks are a serious Cup contender until the coaches can figure out how to get the most out of Karlsson.
Meanwhile, Joe Thornton is average a near career-low in points per game. Just getting that old? Reason to worry?
2018-19 is in all likelihood the Joe Thornton Farewell Tour so by those standards he’s been surprisingly effective. It helps that the Sharks haven’t really needed him to be more than a third-line center and occasional contributor on the power play and he’s played both of those roles admirably. Really the only goal with him is ensuring he’s healthy for the playoffs after missing the majority of the last two postseasons due to knee injuries.
What’s up with Timo Meier‘s breakout?
Meier has always put up an insane shot rate going back to junior hockey and has taken that strategy to a new level this season. He’s currently third in the league in unblocked shots per minute at even strength, and with those shots going in at nearly twice the rate that they did last season it’s not surprising that he’s on pace for 50 goals. I don’t expect him to maintain that shooting percentage but based on the shot rate alone, and more importantly the types of chances he’s getting, Meier is going to blow away his previous career high of 21 goals and should easily clear the 35-goal mark as well. The biggest key is probably that his line with Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl has the size and cycling ability to get Meier those chances in front of the net that are his bread and butter but they also have the speed and passing to create chances off the rush that Meier really didn’t generate much of last season.
Game #35 Preview Suite
It’s bad enough that we all know that Evander Kane is a piece of shit. He’s been sued/investigated/charged for all sorts of actions against women, whether it’s assault or being grabby or suits over supposed agreements to pay for abortions that he didn’t fulfill. There are enough of them around, however they’ve ended up, to make it pretty clear that he’s someone we could all do without.
But there are enough of them around in the league, and there hasn’t been anything yet that would be grounds to throw him out of hockey, no matter how good it might feel. What there also isn’t are grounds to actively use him to do NHL promotion.
Kane appears in an ad for NHL Network, though you’ll only find it on the NHL Center Ice package when they don’t show local ads. Still, the NHL has no business being anywhere near Kane, and yet they can’t help themselves. This seems to be a hockey thing, where not only does the NHL duck and hide when it comes to dealing with these sort of issues, but they’re in a huge rush to try and rehabilitate any player’s image if they’re in any way a star. Whether Kane is would be debatable, but we know they did this with the other Kane as well. They’re more concerned with either ignoring these things totally or jump-starting a rehabilitation of one’s image. But never of their personality.
It’s not asking much of a league that when a player has a cloud as big and stormy over him for years, that Evander Kane does, he’s merely an employee and not a poster boy. That would seem to be the bare minimum any fan who cares about this stuff would ask of the NHL. It sends a horrific message to a huge portion of hockey fandom. And yet the NHL constant fails this easy, step-over-able hurdle every goddamn time.
Maybe Kane’s next crime/indiscretion/mistake will get the NHL to finally do something about it. But they’ll have a hand in why he hasn’t learned anything from all the previous ones, whatever they may be.
Game #35 Preview Suite
Notes: We know that looks a little weird, but the Sharks aren’t playing with set lines at the moment. Pavelski will take some shifts at center and some as Thornton’s wing. Meier and Hertl switch all the times. It seems to be they have pairs on the forwards, Pavelski-Kane, Couture-Donskoi, Thornton-Sorensen and then the wingers other than that just rotate…Vlasic and Braun are taking the dungeon shifts so that Burns and Karlsson can run wild, but you’ll see the pairings change a bit too at times…Meier has four goals in his last two games…Couture has six points in his last five…Jones looked to have turned a corner but has given up seven goals in his last three games…
Notes: Again, wouldn’t seem to be much reason to change the lineup with the upturn in play. Dahlstrom certainly doesn’t deserve to come out of the lineup. Gustafsson won’t. Seabrook? That would be ballsy…The third line has been excellent in the two games they’ve gotten, if that continues where would Anisimov fit?…Wouldn’t be on the fourth line, Colliton seems to love it….
Game #35 Preview Suite
Capitals vs. Hurricanes – 6:30
It’s a pretty weak slate in the NHL tonight, so this will have to do. Carolina continues to be the whiskey dick of the league, willing and seemingly able but never quite getting going. They lost last night and their playoff push window is going to start to winnow soon. The Caps are up near the top of the division, because someone has to be and Alex Ovechkin is a national treasure.
Second Screen Viewing
Bruins vs. Penguins – 6pm
The Penguins are in trouble. I don’t think this is just their normal slow start, because that defense and bottom six is weak. They’ll have the soft landing of the Metro to keep them in the playoff hunt, unless Carolina ever gets its act together, Which it won’t. The Bruins are the opposite, having every obstacle put in their way and yet they keep moving along. They’re not going to catch Tampa and Toronto is quickly getting out of site, but thanks to the Metro’s balloon-handed nature the Atlantic should get five in.
Other Games
Knights vs. Devils – 6pm
Coyotes vs. Rangers – 6pm
Senators vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Avalanche vs. Blues – 7pm
Flyers vs. Oilers – 8pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Jets 20-9-2 Hawks 10-18-5
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
FOR WE’VE NOWHERE TO BE: Arctic Ice Hockey
Now that the Hawks have finally broken their duck, or the latest duck (no, not that duck), what better time for the first visit of the team that’s dribbled their head on the ground like a basketball twice this year? That’s right shitheads, whatever good feelings were generated by Wednesday’s win over the fading-titan Penguins is probably getting snuffed out by current titan Winnipeg Jets.
There isn’t much more to add to this one that we didn’t already say on Tuesday. You’d imagine that the Hawks want to keep as much the same as possible, when they played pretty well. So Dylan Sikura should stay with David Kampf and Brendan Perlini, which made for an awfully effective third line on Wednesday. The fourth line of Andreas Martinsen, Marcus Kruger, and John Hayden produced two goals, so you know they’re sticking together. I don’t know if they’re actually any good (yes I do, they’re not) but they work hard and the Hawks almost certainly need that right now. And we’ll get to see more of Dylan Strome, Top Cat, and Patrick Kane together and if they can outshoot their possession and defensive problems.
At the back, I would be of the opinion that Carl Dahlstrom should get another run-out with Connor Murphy (UNITY!), because they were really good against Pittsburgh and really, what the fuck are you holding onto here? If Erik Gustafsson is healthy he should replace Brandon Manning, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he replaces Dahlstrom. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on his first win since the Bush administration.
As for the Jets, they rolled from their barely-breathing-hard win over the Hawks into an overtime win against the Oilers last night at TRUE NORTH. It wasn’t a pristine effort as they blew a 3-1 lead and needed Mark Scheifele to pull their ass out of a sling to tie it and set up the winner in overtime. They didn’t suffer any injuries so you’ll see the exact same team that rubbed the Hawks’ ass in the moonshine on Tuesday before they started dreaming of butterflies and fluffy clouds and let the Hawks back into it. That includes backup Lauren Brossoit, who was shaky against the Hawks. His last three starts have been iffy really, as he gave up three to the Devils before that and four to the Blues, which is a real trick as they’re actively trying to not win. Brossoit had a big start to the season but the shine is starting to fade. So there’s some hope for the Westside Hockey Club.
This is a rare scheduling bonus for the Hawks, who haven’t caught a lot of teams on the second of a back-to-back. Combine that with the Jets taking the Hawks lightly, which is always possible, and maybe you can get the jump on them quickly. Crawford was awfully stabby and jumpy against the Penguins but still got the 40 saves to get a win. He certainly needed the confidence boost and hopefully he begins to smooth out a bit and get on a roll, if nothing else than to prove he still can. Of course, any streak of old Corey is going to fire up the trade wishes/rumors again, but that’s the course we’ve been set.
Let’s to it, lads…
Game #34 Preview Suite
When you think of Blake Wheeler, if you think of Blake Wheeler (and we won’t comment if you do), you probably think of an all-conquering, clear-the-track power forward who goes wherever he wants and constantly opens up space for his linemates. And that’s not exactly wrong, because Wheeler can be that when he wants.
He can also be Adam Oates.
Wheeler led the league in assists last year, with 68, tied with Claude Giroux. For comparison’s sake, Patrick Kane–perhaps the preeminent playmaking winger of his time–has a career high of 60 assists in a season. Wheeler’s and Giroux’s 68 assists last campaign were the most by a winger since Jaromir Jagr put up 69 (shut up) in the year coming out of the lockout. Martin St. Louis also managed to put up 68 assists in ’10-’11, but Jagr is the only other winger you’ll find in the stratosphere of that total of helpers. In the interest of fairness, Wheeler spent a chunk of last season at center when Mark Scheifele was out with injury.
This year, Wheeler is on pace to do even better, and so far it’s all been from the wing. He has 33 assists in 30 games, which would put him on pace for 90 assists on the year. No winger has bettered 83 (go ahead) in the past 20 seasons, which of course was again Jagr.
Making it stranger still is that Wheeler is only on pace for 13 goals. Only Henrik Sedin has ended up with less goals while totaling up more than 65 assists, with 10. Adam Oates is also, fittingly, on this list as he managed 13 goals in 2000-2001 while collecting 69 (still shut up) assists. This kind of disparity isn’t seen much, especially for a player as capable of scoring as Wheeler is.
It gets even more odd as you dig deeper. Wheeler totaled 34 assists on the power play last year, which led the league by four last year. This year, he’s already piled up 17 power play assists, which leads the league by two, and puts him at a rate to pile up 46 power play assists. Since the NHL began keeping track of power play points in ’97-’98, only Sidney Crosby has toppled that total, with 48 in ’06-’07. Guess it helps when you can just dish across to Patrik Laine at the other circle all the time.
Wheeler has company this year. Both Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen have more assists than him this year, and both are wingers. Rantanen is on pace for a simply unholy and ridiculous 103 assists this year, and probably then has to give a quarter of his paycheck to Nathan MacKinnon.
Either way, Wheeler has changed his game and you can’t argue when it results in points on the board. While some may deride the amount that has come on the power play, Wheeler led the pack in primary assists at all strengths last year, and he did so by seven of them. So whether it’s at evens or on the man-advantage, if you’re the guy setting up the goal, that’s what matters. This year both Rantanen and Marner are ahead of him in primary assists.
Still, it’s a little weird what’s happened to Wheeler’s game. He used to be a possession monster, with relative Corsi-percentages of +5.7 and +8.4 three and to years ago. Last year, when he started this Jason Kidd act, that dropped to the negative side, as he’s on this year as well. It doesn’t matter when you’re scoring as much as he is, or his line is, but it gives you the impression that there could be even more within Wheeler if he were so inclined. And certainly no one minded when he put together 18 assists in 17 playoff games last year.
Maybe this is just how Wheeler’s game has evolved. He is 32, so it’s likely his peak is probably behind him. While his size and speed would still indicate that he can crash and smash his way around the ice, that has less of a shelf-life than a vision-quest that he’s become. Wheeler’s ability to pick a pass won’t go away with time, and seeing as how Laine can’t even get a drink legally yet, he could be feeding him for five or six more years. Nikolaj Ehlers, his winger at even-strength, is barely any older. So that passing tree is going to be around a while, too.
Don’t fool yourself, Wheeler is still taking his shots. He’s averaging nearly three shots on goal per game this year, and he was over three last year. He’s seen a unsustainable drop in his shooting-percentage this year to 6.2%, but the more telling is that his rate of attempts and shots per 60 minutes has declined the past three seasons. Then again, that’s when Laine and Ehlers showed up, so…
Wheeler has a five-year extension kicking in next year at $8.2M per year. If he can continue to pile up 55+ assists a year, and with Laine there’s no reason to think he can’t, no one’s going to complain about him being 38 when the deal is up.
Which makes you wonder about certainly players who get derided as “pass-first.” (Sound familiar?) Sure, it would be nice if every player did everything. Some aren’t wired that way. But if you can shoot just enough to make people think about it, isn’t it better to accentuate what they do well? Wheeler became a great passer. So the Jets stuck Laine/Ehlers on the other wing. Seems to be working out well, huh?
Game #34 Preview Suite
Obviously, nothing much has changed from Tuesday. So here’s the Q&A we ran with Derek Gagnon (@DerekGagnon1) from ArcticIceHockey.com.
I think it’s doable, though some sacrifices will have to be made along the way. Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor look to be Jets long term, and will get paid handsomely on their next contracts. There are some questions on defense though. The Jacob Trouba contract situation has been a concern for years, and with only one more season of restricted-free agent status left after this season, if they aren’t able to sign him long term it may be time to move him in the off-season. Tyler Myers is another situation that needs addressing. He’s being paid $5.5 million this year to play third pairing minutes, and not play them overly well. As an unrestricted free agent, I would expect the Jets to cut ties, but they may not if the Trouba contract isn’t long-term.
The cap being projected to go up to $83 million definitely works in the Jets favor, as that extra room will come in handy. Even then, it might mean more players on entry-level contracts on the team, rather than guys like Brandon Tanev. Mason Appleton and Kristian Vesalainen are a couple of names that could benefit from a cap crunch.
Game #34 Preview Suite
