Hockey

Game #55 – Hawks vs. Jets: Hedley Lamarr’s Nitwits, Halfwits, And Dimwits

By Sam Fels 1178 0

Patrik Laine – All jokes about how he looks like he’d ask you three questions to let you cross his bridge, the Jets have bent over backwards for this guy in recent years and he’s pretty much just been a floater. They listened to him bitch incessantly last year about playing on the second line. So they handed him a new contract, shifted their captain back to center and Laine up to play on their top line. He’s given them a fine 30-goal pace season but also doesn’t impact the game in any other way. He is what everyone wanted to believe Alex Ovechkin was back in the day. His metrics are woeful. This guy stands around and waits to shoot and nothing else, and the Jets might want to consdier what they could get for him in the trade market one day soon.

Paul Maurice: Not easy to keep a job you clearly suck at. This is still one of the most talented forward groups in the league, with a goalie playing at a Vezina level. They’re still not in the playoffs, his players clearly hate him, and they haven’t played defense in two seasons. And yet he can’t get fired. God bless the NHL.

Hockey

Game #55 – Hawks vs. Jets: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1157 0

Hawks

Notes: They were making noise like Boqvist could make the bell tonight, but our guess is he sits this one out to get an extra day before the rest of the trip. That means Seeler would make his debut which makes this defense somehow even slower, if you can believe it. If that’s how it shakes out, expect Keith and Murphy to play 25 minutes…otherwise would expect the lineup to stay the same. There may be more breaking up of Dach, Saad, and Kane, because they’ve been woeful defensively…

Jets

Notes: The Jets are beat up, especially on the bottom six, with Lowry and Perreault out. It’s moved Copp to center…Laine is on a heater again, with six goals in his last five and a hat trick against the Sens last out. We still think he’s a passenger though. Hellebuyck didn’t play yesterday and they got a rare win from their backup so he’ll go tonight. He’s been brilliant of late as out of the 113 shots he’s seen in his last three starts he’s stopped 107…

Baseball

Hoping For An Opener, If It Even Matters

By Sam Fels 1613 0

There’s such a defeated feeling when talking about on-field matters with the Cubs. They don’t seem too interested in making the actual play on the field all that inspiring, so why should we feel all that inspired about it. Cubs Insider’s Evan Altman kind of nails it here, where the Cubs haven’t chosen any path this or last offseason and hence it’s hard to get excited about a team that’s sitting in the middle of the sidewalk like a tired and whiny toddler.

But you know, it’s better than talking about what size tomato I’d throw at Tom Ricketts these days, so I’m going to try again before we actually get to spring training, which is very close. I’ve gone over how the lineup could actually be good, even really good, if Ian Happ can be more what his numbers look like after his last week of the season than just being what he was before that last week. It’s not a great idea to have an entire team’s offensive fortunes hinge on a barely third-year player, but this is where we are.

The rotation…should at least be solid. Everyone hates Jose Quintana, which makes me empathize with him because hey, been there, but he’s a solid piece at worst. Darvish and Hendricks are good, if not better than that, and Lester is at least going to take the ball and sweat. But even with his contact-rates against starting to turn ugly, it’s hard to believe the Lester will go through another season with a .347 BABIP against. He should be, basically, fine, especially as a #4 starter.

So the Cubs have a hole at #5. And I’m fairly sure what they’re going to do is the very easy, uncreative, stuff Tyler Chatwood there and pray he doesn’t walk a marching band to first. But it doesn’t have to be this way, especially with teams most likely carrying 13 pitchers for the whole season with the rosters going to 26 now.

The Cubs should use that fifth day as an “opener” day, because it keeps some pitchers as available the rest of the schedule which the Cubs will need. I’m looking at the model for this, which is Tampa. Granted. Tampa has to use an opener and be creative in their usage because they might actually not be able to afford a whole rotation whereas the Cubs simply won’t afford one. But hey, again, here we are.

So last year, the Rays used Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Jalen Beeks, as multi-use and multi-inning weapons out of the pen. The first two has more than 10 starts, and sometimes were just used as starters but sometimes just once through the lineup. Basically, what we’re looking for is two or three guys who can throw 100 innings, both from the bell and out of the pen. And the Cubs have these guys.

I’ve bleated on about Chatwood, and the only way the Cubs could keep Adbert Alzolay healthy is to use him for no more than 100 innings. But using him as a simple one-inning guy also seems a waste. Duane Underwood Jr. is another candidate, as he threw 100 innings combined last year between Iowa and the Cubs, though he very well might be the definition of a “4A” guy. Alec Mills or one or two other punters the Cubs trot out in Mesa/out of their system might find success merely burning through a lineup once.

It would also be how you sequence this. Lester is unlikely to pile up six and seven-inning starts, so you might want to slot him between Darvish and Hendricks for the season (if you assume that Darvish is going to gobble up the innings, which you shouldn’t). That way your multi-inning pieces can get a couple days between Lester’s start and that fifth slot that is nebulous at this point. But they have enough to get through that fifth spot by just throwing shit to the wall.

The whole roster is going to need creative use to maximize what it is even to just get to July 31st and force the front office into some decisions. Heyward can’t play against lefties, but then really Schwarber shouldn’t either (though you can get away with it), so who the fuck is gonna play the outfield then? When do you use Bote? What happens if Hoerner isn’t ready? Now my head is spinning.

One of the (few) disappointments with Joe Maddon was that he was pretty straight-laced when it came to managing a pitching staff. Starters, then set-up guys, then closer. Sure, he didn’t have a problem shuffling the lineup and rotating guys in and out, and that’s cool. But it would kind of suck if the Cubs punted Maddon aside only to bring in Ross to be as boring, especially when they clearly have a hole they need to cover up.

Here’s hoping.

Hockey

Brent Seabrook Completes His Surgeries, Might Be Darth Vader Now

By Sam Fels 3096 0

It was a brief snippet on social media, but yesterday the Hawks announced that Brent Seabrook had undergone the third of his three major surgeries–both hips and one of his shoulders–and that he was expected to be fully recovered in five to six months. Which would put him on course to be ready for training camp, and even give him some runway to train on his own in August to ramp up for it. Which is not a runway he’s really used before, but here we are.

This doesn’t mean the Hawks are clear of the headache.

While the whole saga still remains fishy to me, i have little doubts that Seabrook had these surgeries. I mean, I just don’t think the Hawks are capable of pulling the kind of sideshow conspiracy of announcing he’s out for the year with these problems and then stashing him off in Bermuda or Belize or whatever. And he’s been around the team at times, so we know that. Still, it’s awfully weird that Seabrook was carrying injuries this bad for this long, if you believe him and the Hawks and that’s why his play sucked, and they kept sending him out there. But we’ve had that talk.

If I were a betting man–and my recent ass-pounding at Santa Anita would suggest I’m either very much not or I very much shouldn’t be–I’d still say that somewhere between the convention and camp next summer the Hawks announce that during his rehab, Seabrook either suffered a setback or realized he can’t be the player he was or something to that effect and he’s hanging them up. And I would bet they turn the home opener into some kind of “One Last Shift”/retirement ceremony for him. That would just be my guess.

They could also be trying to prep the ground for some kind of trade if he really wants to play. “Hey, we’ve cleaned all this up now and he’s basically part bionic but he can still help a third pairing for the cool price of $3.4M per year!” The Hawks obviously would have to eat half his salary to move him along, or more to the point of having any prayer of doing so.

That could set up an ugly exchange though, where Seabrook is saying he’s healthy enough to play but the Hawks say he’s either not or he doesn’t fit into their plans and we know the front office wants to avoid that like the goddamn plague.

Still, it’s really hard to see how Seabs fits in next year. Let’s be optimistic (or “optimisty” as Sammy Sosa would say) and say Ian Mitchell signs after his college season. We know the Hawks defense would at least look like this:

Keith-Murphy

de Haan-Boqvist

-Mitchell

That’s…fine? But it could be better. It lacks either a third puck mover, depending on if Mitchell is even going to be that (though he should) and whether you can even consider Keith that at 37. It would need more mobility, and Seabrook does not provide that. And this is assuming the Hawks have the foresight to buy out Olli Maatta for the mere $800K it would cost, and no one should be sure they have that kind of vision.

And if Mitchell doesn’t sign? Well now you’re probably two d-men short, and sure Seabrook can be on the third pairing but you’d better find a plus-puck-mover with wheels to pair with him down there and Seabrook’s salary makes it awfully hard to find room for say a Tyson Barrie or Torey Krug or Sami Vatanen.

And there’s the rub. With Seabrook on the team, the Hawks only have $10M in space for next year, with Kubalik, Strome, and two goalies needing to be put back on the roster. As discussed, a buyout of Maatta opens up $3M+, but that’s still not enough. And don’t forget that Caggiula is probably playing himself into a raise, too. And once again we’re assuming the Hawks are smart enough to let Erik Gustafsson walk, which sounds like a great way to end up stabbing ourselves.

It’s at this point that I have to say this would be a shitty way for Seabrook to have to end his career, especially if it’s in some sort of spat with the only organization he’s ever known. There is a way to thread this needle of course. Everyone can be clear with each other right after this season ends, with Seabrook saying he wants to play and the Hawks saying that’s great but they have to move on on their blue line. And then trying to do right by him by doing their best to find him a new home. It’s something of the same playbook they didn’t use last summer that we put forth.

How the Hawks end this season will probably play into it. If they miss the playoffs, which is still the more likely outcome given everything, it would be easy for players and management to point at the missing leadership and “oeuvre” of Seabrook as a cause. At least they could use it to justify not having to make the hard decision, which we know they love to do. But if they do make the playoffs without him, even with a departing Gustafsson, that becomes trickier.

It’ll make for excellent television, though.

 

Hockey

Game #54 – Bruins vs. Hawks Preview: Why Are The Women Frustrated?

By Sam Fels 1457 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bruins 32-10-12   Hawks 25-21-7

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

THEY’RE ALL AEROSMITH’S DRUMMER NOW: Stanley Cup Of Chowder

After stealing a point last night by only playing for the third period, the Hawks will have the degree of difficulty seriously upped on them tonight to get three of four points, or even two. The Boston Bruins stroll in, also having played last night, and having won their last four to the tune of 15-4 aggregate. So yeah, this isn’t the Wild.

We wrote this about the Bruins when the Hawks were there in December:

And with this cushion in the Atlantic, the Bs don’t really have to fear a flattening out or market correction. 14 points even at this stage is a gargantuan lead, and unless both Halak’s and Rask’s head fall off and roll into the Charles, they’re not losing that. So they can look forward to at least the first two rounds with home ice. Their season is almost accomplished and we’re weeks away from Christmas.

Yeah, about that.

Thanks to the Lightning finally gaining consciousness and a serious case of, “What the fuck is going on here?”, the Bruins are only up five points on them and have played a game more. So that lead-pipe-cinch of a division crown isn’t so lead-pipe-cinch anymore. So what happened?

Well part of it is an ungodly number of losses after 60 minutes. The Bruins have 12 overall, with only Detroit and Ottawa the only other ones even in double-digits. Flip half of those the other way, which easily could have happened because it’s a lottery, and not only are the Bruins running away with the Atlantic but the entire NHL as well. The Bruins have lost seven games in OT or a shootout in just the past two months. And even still, the Bruins have gone 12-7-6 since the last meeting with the Hawks, which is more than acceptable. It’s not their fault the Lightning have gone 29-1 or whatever.

Overall, the story hasn’t changed that much for the Bs. They’re a decent-to-good metric team. They don’t create as many chances or attempts as the other teams in the top ten, but they bury more of them because they have Pastrnak, Marchand, Bergeron, and Krejci. And they’ve become very tight defensively this season, as they’re the best team in terms of xGA/60 and fifth best in attempts-against. Throw in remarkable special teams (top three in both) and great goaltending, and you see where they raft of OT/SO losses belie what this team actually is. The +44 goal difference, best in the league, is a much better indicator of what this team is.

It’s easy to dismiss the Bruins as just one line, and they do have arguably the best line in hockey still. But that is somewhat unjust to David Krejci, though he basically only gets offensive-zone starts now. Charlie Coyle has been of use as well, but this team is a touch short on the wings behind Marchand and Pastrnak, and probably DeBrusk. McAvoy and Chara are pretty much mine-sweepers now, and they’ve been very good at it, with Grzelcyk and Krug doing most of the pushing and creative work against lesser competition. Carlo rounds out a pretty solid if unspectacular blue line.

Tuke Nuk’em and Jaro Halak might be the best duo in the crease in the league, with bother over .920 and Rask in the Vezina discussion. Before the deadline, they’ll be looking for wingers, but this is a serious contender once again.

Which makes the Hawks’ task that much harder Given their position, they can’t just write off too many games as luxury items. Especially after not getting both points last night. Whom Colliton wants to match up with Bergeron and Co. will be the main watch tonight. It’s not something he’s shown a talent for, and really the only candidate is Kubalik-Toews-Caggiula. Maybe reuniting Kampf and Carpenter somewhere would be another, but don’t count on it. As good as the Bruins are, stopping their top line from putting up three or four goals is still the main task. And staying out of the box.

The Hawks sprung a surprise on the Bruins at The Garden, but once the Bruins actually started paying attention the world collapsed around the Hawks’ ears. Toews saved them in OT. Maybe on the road and the second of a back-to-back will keep the Bruins fro totally focusing. That’s the main hope. The Hawks season will hinge on the following road trip. But it would be nice to have points here in the bag before it.

 

Hockey

Game #54 – Bruins vs. Hawks Spotlight: Zdeno Chara And Hockey’s Missing Sliding Scale

By Sam Fels 1256 0

In our Hedley Lamarr segment today, we proposed that come the summer, whenever the season ends for the Bs (after beating the Leafs in the 1st round of course) it’ll be up to the organization to tell Zdeno Chara it’s time to go. Hell, if the Hawks can do it to Brent Seabrook, right? Because the numbers aren’t kind to Chara so far this season. And we’ll come back around to this.

The argument went that Chara was exposed in the playoffs last year, as tends to happen to 41-year-olds who are playing NHL hockey for seven and eight months. The Corsi and xG%s were the lowest of his career in the postseason last year, and the past two postseasons has seen him be on the ice for more attempts, chances, and expected goals against than ever before. He’s played every game this year, so it’s hard to see how the Bruins are going to keep him fresh for another run through April and May.

That seemingly has carried over into this year, where again, Chara’s metrics are the worst of his career. And he appears to be dragging down Charlie McAvoy as well, who is supposed to be the Bs main puck-mover. McAvoy hasn’t scored this year, and his possession-numbers are also the worst of his career. And both of their metrics are off while spending most of their time behind Pastrnak, Marchand, and Bergeron. That’s not good.

But dig a little deeper, and you get to where the hockey-analytic movement has a gap. McAvoy and Chara are starting the least amount of shifts in the offensive zone than they ever have. Chara is starting just 34.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and nowhere else in his career has that ever been below 42%. And usually in his time in Boston, he’s been around 50% there. If you go by starts, which includes more than just faceoffs, it’s just 33%. That’s never been below 41% in his career. He and McAvoy are something of defensive stoppers now.

So how do you judge sinking possession numbers when they’re starting their shifts in different areas now? That they have to go the full length of the rink to generate attempts and chances instead of just halfway or less? That their opponents are starting much closer to the Bruins net than they did before with Chara on the ice? There’s isn’t a slide for that yet. There’s isn’t a ballpark adjustment. There’s isn’t a wRC+.

And at the end of the day, Chara is on the ice for 1.9 GA/60 at even strength, which is the lowest mark since 2013-2014. They still decide who wins by who scores more, or who scores less. The Bruins get amazing goaltending from either Rask or Halak, so that’s part of it. Chara is on the ice for more attempts against than he has been in years, but his xGA is the lowest it’s been in four seasons. So even with those dungeon starts, he and McAvoy have limited chances better than they have before. Maybe it’s not time to call time on Chara yet.

You can see where if the Bruins win the Cup, Chara can ride off into the sunset, as the only Bs captain to raise the Cup twice since Orr. He’s already the only one to do it once since Orr anyway. The Bs aren’t really that capped out, with $19M in space now and only Krug, Grzelcyk, and Debrusk as probably-should-keeps, and Krug is debatable at that level. Halak is FA as well, but you can find a #2 netminder lots of places.

Chara and the Bs will know the answer by how he plays in the playoffs. If a team scars him like the Blues did last June, then we’ll know it’s time to go. And if no one does and he wants to play some more, maybe it’s not that clear of a refusal.

Hockey

Game #54 – Bruins vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1064 0

Brad Marchand – The only one that matters. Or doesn’t matter when the games get important, as we found out last June. And June ’13. Marchand would want you to believe he’s the ultimate pest. What he is is a coward. Pests know what they are, and just annoy, poke, and cause penalties. They don’t duck every plausible challenger and then essentially jump noted goon Nikolaj Ehlers like Marchand did last week. And they certainly don’t pose after it, as Marchand desperately did to try and be considered a toughie. Eventually everyone is going to learn what the Blues did last year, which is if you just leave Marchand alone and don’t give him oxygen, he goes away. He’s a Bergeron and Pastrnak passenger, and the Bruins will learn that again this spring at some point. They always do. Usually about the time Marchand goes for a line change when he’s supposed to be defending.

Zdeno Chara – A first-ballot Hall of Famer, but it’s going to be up to the Bruins in the summer to tell him no more. Was horribly exposed in the playoffs last year, and the Bs brought him back because they can’t seem to say no. In an East that should see the Bs have to get past  some combination of Tampa, Toronto, Carolina, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chara’s plodding ways and wingspan that less and less can make up for it are going to be a detriment again.

Hockey

Game #54 – Bruins vs. Hawks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 997 0

Bruins

\

Notes: Tuke Nuke ‘Em started last night against Vancouver, so it’ll be Halak tonight. He had a rough January as he put up an .886 in the month…Pasta is on another heater, with nine points in his last six games…Krejci also has seven points in his last six, and Debrusk is coming along with him…

Notes: We missed our guess last night, so it’ll be Lehner tonight for sure. Had a rough start his last time out so he should be raring to go…Koekkoek got awfully Koekkoek-y last night so maybe we’ll see Seeler sooner on the road trip than we thought…the Saad-Dach-Kane line had a bad night last night but hopefully they stick with it longer…so did Keith and Boqvist, despite the latter scoring. Those have been piling up for them, and while we’d like to see Boqvist with Murphy at some point there just isn’t a way to lineup the rest of the defense to work along with it…