Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews – Duncan Keith

By Rose Rankin 1826 0

You don’t need me to remind you of the excitement around possibly-just-maybe this defense having young, fast additions this year, but no matter how optimistic anyone wants to be, the story of the Hawks’ defense will be as much about the stalwart veterans as it will be about the youngins. And who better exemplifies that than Duncan Keith? Let’s do this:

2018-19 Stats

82 GP – 6 G – 34 A – 40 PTS

49.8 CF% (0.92 CF Rel) – 45 xGF%  (-0.05 xGF Rel)

58.0 oZS% – 42.0 dZS% – 23.01 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: In case you don’t recall—or if you blocked it out which no one would blame you for if you did—Duncan Keith had a bit of a problematic season. As I said in my player review last spring, he certainly had decent aspects to his game, such as a 50 CF% and a slight bounce back in points, and he was by no means the most painful defenseman to watch.

However, it was clear Keith was thoroughly not giving half a shit about his new coach’s defensive system, nor did he really appear to have much respect for the coach in general. Now, I’m not going to bother passing judgement on whether Jeremy Colliton deserves or has earned his players’ respect (I mean, come on, we call the guy “Coach Cool Youth Pastor,” among other names). Yet, you would think that it just isn’t a good look to be bad-mouthing your coach in the press. It can’t be likely to solve any of your issues.

So it should be quite interesting to see what frame of mind he shows up in this year and how that translates to the on-ice results.

It Was the Best of Times: In an ideal world, Keith would make some adjustments to his game for the greater good. This would require him to recognize he doesn’t have the speed or mobility he once had, and that he needs to act as more of a free safety when paired with a faster partner. And of course that’s the other factor, right? Who would best fit that role? If Erik Gustafsson learns to play defense and would stop running around like a coked-up gerbil, then fine, maybe him, but I highly doubt he’ll figure that out. Regardless, they’re sure to be paired together and we’ll watch it like a bad car crash.

Maybe put Calvin de Haan with Keith, albeit on de Haan’s off side? Or, let’s be overly optimistic and say Adam Boqvist or Nicholas Beaudin make the team and Keith acts as the elder statesman, cleaning up messes they’ll inevitably make, while whichever one(s) he’s paired with can get to the corners and make he moves Keith himself no longer can. Any of the youngins will need to be sheltered in terms of zone starts, which would be right in Keith’s wheelhouse, since he’s been starting in the offensive zone well over 50% of the time for the past few seasons.

If Keith gave even half a shit, he could play Colliton’s man-to-man system well enough, assuming CCYP sticks with it (and there’s no reason to think he won’t). In this rosy picture (GET IT?), Keith gets advantageous starts, ends up with around 45 points on the season, and helps the younger generation all at the same time.

It Was the Blurst of Times: I think we all know what this would look like: Keith continues to give no fucks whatsoever and makes mistakes everywhere. The turnovers will be insane both in terms of quantity and ridiculousness. We’ll see coverage blown all over the place as Keith ignores the defensive system, and Gustafsson, his likely partner for at least a sizeable period until he’s hopefully traded, goes full-on cokefiend gerbil and they get smoked constantly by opposing offenses. Last year Keith had the second-worst xGA on the team with 67.7. Guess who had the worst? That’s right, Gustafsson (68.3). And, when that shit goes sideways and/or Gus is shipped off, CCYP will pair Keith with Nachos and it’ll get worse. Keith will be in all the wrong places and Seabrook will just be falling on his ass. It’ll be a hot mess.

Prediction: This may sound pessimistic but Keith will likely be mostly frustrating to watch with some flashes of brilliance thrown in—just enough to make the other dumb shit and stubbornness that much more aggravating to see. He’ll do whatever he wants, play outside Colliton’s system, and no one will have the balls to bench him or leave him in the press box because 1) come on, that’s disproportional to the crime and 2) there aren’t other good options to replace him, at least right now. But, occasionally he’ll pull something incredible—break up a play at exactly the right time, get somewhere you swore he couldn’t get to in time, and all will be forgiven for a little while.

He’ll finish the season with under 40 points and we’ll all be left trying to figure out if he wants to be traded, and if it’s a good idea or even workable, and it’ll hurt. But there’s probably a lot about this season that’s going to hurt, so get ready.

All stats from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and Corsica Hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

 

 

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: Serie A – You’re Gonna See it on TV, Might as Well Know What You’re Watching

By Rose Rankin 1073 0

We’ve already covered the Premier League, but on your weekend mornings you may also run across random Italian soccer games. Serie A is on ESPN but mostly the network’s app, so I guess you Luddites out there may not see it. But if you do, here’s a crash course on what you’re watching. We’ll move north-to-south down the peninsula (no, that’s not a euphemism):

Juventus: The league’s best and most likely to win the season. Juve is the best team in Serie A and will probably win it. Again. They’ve won the championship (called the “Scudetto”) eight times in a row. They’re like the Patriots and Yankees rolled into one and yes you should hate them passionately.

But unfortunately they’re legitimately good. Convicted-tax-cheat-and-accused-rapist Ronaldo wins games at will when they need to be bailed out, but they also have scoring depth in Mario Mandzukic and Paolo Dybala, the latter of whom is still young and talented despite having had a tough previous season. Their backfield was aging and slow, so they took care of that by adding Matthijs de Ligt, one of the best defenders in the world. New coach Maurizio Sarri, who won the Europa League with Chelsea last year will likely play a 4-4-3, and the Scudetto is theirs to lose.

Torino: The Mets to Juve’s Yankees, or the White Sox to Juve’s Cubs, if you wanna be a dick about it. Torino is a mid-table team with one decent striker. And his nickname in Italian is “The Cock.” Not even making that up.

Internazionale: One of the best teams but continually falling short of expectations. Known as “Inter,” they’re making a credible run at Juve’s dominance. They have a new coach, Antonio Conte, who is one of the most successful Italian coaches of recent years, and they landed Romelu Lukaku, who should more than make up for their drama-filled albatross Mauro Icardi, who they’re still trying to unload. They’ll be competitive like they always are…and lose to Juve like they always do.

AC Milan: Been underperforming and will likely be better. Milan should be good this year—they seemed to have found their striker in Krzysztof Piatek, they added a bunch of midfielders to make up for the injury-depleted group last year, and they’re sitting out of Europa League (financial shenanigans), which means they’ll be rested and focused on getting back into a Champion’s League spot.

Atalanta: Last year’s Cinderella story, doomed to not repeat it. Atalanta squeaked into the fourth Champion’s League spot and yes you should root for them because come on, you’re not that dead inside. But truth be told, they have no depth and are likely to be mid-table this year.

Brescia: Recently promoted but surprisingly interesting. So Brescia just got promoted, which generally means they’re going to suck, but they just signed native son Mario Balotelli, one of the most infamous Italian players who’s legit a top-flight guy, although also a nutjob and on the downswing. This club also has the league’s version of Crash Davis, the leading scorer in the B league, Alfredo Donnarumma, who will be paired with Balotelli as the scoring attack. So it might be interesting at times, but with no defense they’ll still be kind of a trainwreck.

Hellas Verona: Don’t even worry about it. They were relegated, now are back, and will certainly be relegated again.

Udinese: Again, don’t worry about it.

Genoa: Attempting to suck less. This team brought in a bunch of new players after barely avoiding relegation. Lasse Schone helps their midfield, their backfield is also strong on paper, and they may have some competition amongst their strikers between Christian Kouamé, Andrea Pinamonti and some other dudes you’ve never heard of. Could be a sleeper pick?

Sampdoria: Perennial shit show. This team’s best player is nearly my age. And their new coach got his ass fired from Roma midway through the season last year for general awfulness. Expect to be underwhelmed.

Parma: Will be fortunate to not get relegated.

Sassuolo: Lots of turnover in the lineup, will probably steal a few untimely wins. Sassuolo is by no means a good team, but with the lineup going through the blender, they’ll probably make life difficult for a couple teams at inopportune times.

Bologna: High drama, will be a mid-table finish. This club was rescued mid-season by Sinisa Mihijlovic, who somehow lit a fire under their asses to get from the relegation zone to a solid 10th place. He was recently diagnosed with leukemia and intends to keep coaching, but obviously a terrible development.

SPAL: Dull and will stay that way.

Fiorentina: In rebuilding mode. Fiorentina was awful last year but they have new management and a whole fresh lease on life. We’ll see.

Lazio: Hanging around the top of the league, but they’re fascists. Seriously, Lazio is the team for fascists in Italy. Even IN ITALY people are like oh yeah, they’re fascists. So you can’t root for them. Their fans do all sorts of anti-Semitic shit all the time—fuck this team.

Roma: Full on re-building. Roma was a reliable Champion’s League team and it sucks, but they’re going through a necessary rebuild. They have good young players in Nicolo Zaniolo, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Cengiz Under and a few more, although they lost their best defender to Napoli. Paolo Fonseca is untested in Serie A but had success with Shakhtar Donetsk, and his 4-2-3-1 may actually work quite well with their personnel if Edin Dzeko is in the striker position. It may be a long road back to the top but this could actually be a decent rebuild.

Napoli: Should FINALLY FUCKING BEAT JUVE WHY CAN THEY NOT DAMN IT ALL. Guess which one is my team? In all honesty, they underperformed last year and were still second in the league. Anything less than beating Juve for the Scudetto will be a disappointment, and it’d be nice if they could get past the fucking group stage of Champion’s League. Napoli strengthened their backfield with Roma’s Kostas Manolas who joins Kalidou Koulibaly, legit one of the best defenders in the world. They also hit the cheap-young-talented trifecta with midfielder Elif Elmas. And as of this writing, they were on the verge of signing Hirving Lozana from PSV, who will absolutely help their lack of scoring, since Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne, love them as I do, are getting older and not faster. So it’s been a solid transfer season. Their coach, Carlo Ancelotti, won’t hesitate to move from a 4-3-3 to 4-4-2 and can be trusted to make relatively decent decisions, except for playing Mario Rui, who should be fired into the sun and maybe can be now that we have Manolas.

Cagliari: Could be decent, and at least they’re woke. Their midfield should get some help with Radja Nainggolan from Inter, who now has something to prove since he was kinda dumped unceremoniously. They’ve got other randos who are alright but nothing special. However, last year when local farmers were protesting shitty prices, some of the players took part in the protests so at least they’re standing against corporate exploitation.

Lecce: Prediction—we hardly knew ye. Again, don’t’ worry about it.

Hockey

And in Another More Accurate Way, Barney is the Winner

By Rose Rankin 2129 0

Looking at the Hawks’ offseason moves thus far, which have ranged from the curious to the mildly dissatisfying to the outright stupid, the signing of Robin Lehner is probably the least offensive or, put another way, has the best chance of not blowing up in their face. To review, Lehner was third in Vezina voting last year, with a .930 SV% and 2.13 GAA, although he basically split starts with Thomas Greiss.

Now, before I go any further, let me just say that Lehner’s political stance sucks, and I highly doubt any of our readers would be surprised to hear me say that. But, I can’t change what he thinks, I assume there are many other players whose political opinions would also disgust me, and this is just a fact to be filed away in the “shitty things I can’t do anything about” category.

Setting all that aside, the question then becomes what does this goaltending situation actually look like next season? As I just mentioned, Lehner had a great year splitting starts, and the Islanders just seemingly fucked up by getting bored or distracted, and Lamoriello went all “is a moron” in the GM category as is his way, and Lehner pretty much fell into Stan Bowman’s lap and was willing to take a one-year deal. He’s still a bit of an unknown quantity because his Vezina- quality year could have been a fluke, or he could be hitting the best years of his career and last season was just a harbinger of what’s to come. He had some success in Buffalo with a .920 SV% in 59 games, before hitting a rough patch and then heading to the Islanders, and his career could flourish now that he’s overcome some serious shit. It could really go either way.

And as we know, Corey Crawford’s immediate future is just as uncertain. He’s worked hard to come back from the concussions, and we seen flashes of brilliance mixed with some, well, less-than-brilliant stretches. He picked things up in mid-March after coming back from concussion #857 and put up a very respectable .916 SV% through March (starting at 3/9, full disclosure), which was crucial to the farcical playoff run they pretended to make right at the end. And still, the injury history is there and we all know it. So essentially there are a lot of questions surrounding the goaltending situation and there are a few ways this could play out. So let’s explore, shall we?

Crawford is good, Lehner is bad

If this is how it pans out, then the signing will look like a relatively low-risk gamble that just didn’t work out in the Hawks’ favor. If Crawford is at his historical average around .915, and the PK gets less wretched because de Haan, Maata, and/or Carpenter somehow make a difference, then Lehner could be relegated to a true backup role, and he could choose to try his fortunes elsewhere at the end of the season, with 5 mildo out the door but no lasting harm done. Or, he could even be moved mid-season if Delia or Lankinen are making noise in the AHL and some desperate team is willing to take a chance. And this is a real possibility—the Islanders gave up 30.9 shots, putting them solidly in the middle of the league, whereas the Hawks were dismal second-worst, giving up 34.8. It’s entirely possible Lehner can’t withstand the shit defense that, as we’ve covered, hasn’t really gotten much better from last year.

Should Crawford be holding his own and Lehner struggling, the Hawks will still find themselves in a pickle when Crawford’s contract is up at the end of the season because no matter what he’ll be past his prime, even if this season is a renaissance or bounce-back or any other tired trope you want to use. They’ll have to come to a decision—the Hawks and Crawford—about whether re-signing him for a year or two is worth it, would they really expect him to be the starter, would he rather move on somewhere, what type of payday could really be in the offering (probably not a big one), etc., etc. Lehner not being a reliable alternative answers none of these questions, but if he can’t repeat last season’s performance, then signing him was a relative shrug and “meh we tried” for the organization.

Lehner is good, Crawford is bad

This would be a tough spot but would show that this dumb luck signing was the right thing to do. Let’s say Crawford has a slow start, i.e., barely cracking a .900 SV% by the time Thanksgiving rolls around. Even if it’s not totally his fault and he’s facing between 35-45 shots a night, we still need lights-out goaltending because the defense is still slow and bad. If Crow can’t manage a .910 continuously, and if the PK remains dead-ass last in the league, that’s a serious problem.

And, let’s say Lehner is throwing out a .925 in the handful of starts he gets in October through early November. The Hawks would have to seriously consider making Lehner the No. 1 but could you imagine Crawford as the backup? The organ-I-zation has disrespected him enough times that I wouldn’t rule it out, but it would be both weird and sad. It would also be interesting to see if Coach Cool Youth Pastor actually did it, but he doesn’t have a long history with either goalie so theoretically he shouldn’t be shackled to any sense of loyalty.

It would be uncomfortable, especially for those of us who love Crawford, but December is going to be intense and if he can’t withstand the shitty defense, something has to be done. The Hawks could survive as a bubble team if Lehner can hold it together, and the front office would have a clearer direction of what to do when Crawford’s contract ends. Lehner could get another deal for a few more years, and Delia and Lankinen can fight it out for the backup spot.

They’re both good

What a problem to have, right? In this scenario it’s a 1/1A setup and starts are split nearly evenly, similar to what Lehner and Greiss did last year, with both guys throwing about a .920 SV%. Such a situation could possibly even overcome the terrible defense or at least the team could win despite the shit at the blue line. However, while this may sound like the best-case scenario, I for one do not trust the goalie-by-platoon method. I know, it’s worked in a couple situations but it makes me nervous. What if one guy is on a hot streak but you sit him? Can both maintain momentum when not playing as often? Can Lehner replicate it a second year? Maybe he can, and maybe it’s a good thing for Crawford too as the wear and tear doesn’t get to him plus there’s fewer chances for him to smash his head into a metal post or the ice again.

Any of those are possible, but I’m just saying that I don’t trust the committee strategy long-term. Making  a run in the playoff—as this team CLAIMS is the goal—when you don’t know who should start in goal is nerve-wracking, to say the least. Now of course, it’s important to have two good goalies, one of whom is a solid backup. Let’s remember how crappy Cam Ward was at times last year, and please know that I’m not saying we should have some schlub just so that the depth chart is clear.

But, if this team really does scam their way into the playoffs, platooning isn’t the strategy that’s going to give me a lot of confidence as they’re facing truly good teams. Is there also a component for the goalies themselves—resentment or frustration when the time actually comes? Maybe not, but again, that’s a lot of questions just posed about the goaltending situation, which is generally not where you want to be if you’re aiming for a deep playoff run.

They’re both bad

Well then we’re fucked.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

The short answer to all this is: we have no fucking clue. Yet. There are so many variables right now it’s impossible to predict, but it will begin to make itself known. And then we’ll have to see what CCYP and StanBo are willing to do—they’re terrified of Seabrook as we know, will they also be too scared of Crow to take the necessary steps, should they become necessary? I think they won’t be. Personally I think they’d tell him to hit the road with no sense of irony or shame. If Lehner is going to suck that will also make itself known, and then we’ll be stuck with what we’ve got and will wonder how to move forward after the season.

In comparison to the shit at the blue line, this goaltending situation shouldn’t leave us hiding behind our couches as we watch, at least for now. But no matter how it turns out, someone’s going to get hurt. Even if only in the emotional or metaphorical sense.

 

Everything Else

Why It Matters

By Rose Rankin 2592 0

I’d like to say that sports are divorced from politics or from social issues in general, but the truth is they’re not. They never have been. Sports are a cultural phenomenon in that they motivate groups of people to carry out communal gestures and engage in agreed-upon behaviors and actions specific to that group (sorry to go all anthropological on you there). But political or religious groupings are the same—that’s why sports are just as much a part of the social fabric as rallies, parades, and all the rah-rah-America stuff we just spent dealing with this past week.

That’s why the USWNT winning the World Cup yesterday matters. Because this isn’t just dominance on the pitch, although that alone deserves to be celebrated. This is the wage gap come to life in the starkest manner. It proves that women must still be twice as good to even have the chance to be paid equally. And in this case it’s more than twice as good—pick a hyperbole to describe the difference between the men’s and women’s sides. The USMNT made it to the Gold Cup final this year, but they certainly haven’t come anywhere close to four fucking World Cups, including two consecutive. Need I remind you of their last World Cup debacle?

And these women had to bring their employer to court to even have a shot at equal pay, which, if THEY can’t receive equal pay for equal work (I’m being generous in that definition), then what hope is there for the rest of us? Their success at their job is undeniable, and they’ve met all the metrics their employer supposedly uses to determine compensation, yet they’ve been denied pay equity. At least they have the benefit of international acclaim and legal recourse to a class-action lawsuit, neither of which most women can say. The worst part, however, is that it still may fall through. One would like to believe that, especially given this current performance, they’ll win their lawsuit and force their employer to comply with the law since that employer wouldn’t do so in the first place, but given where we’re at today, even that victory is far from certain.

What do I mean by “where we’re at today?” I mean the general worsening of civil rights. When states across this country pass bills banning women from determining medical decisions about what is going on inside their own bodies—that’s where we’re at today. When the point of those laws is to deprive all women in every state of that decision-making power—by fiat of a handful of people including two accused sexual predators—that’s where we’re at today. Don’t think for a second that these ever-so-ironically named “heartbeat” bills are about protecting babies in Georgia or Ohio or any certain state…the entire point is to have them struck down so that appeals can reach the Supreme Court and challenge Roe v. Wade.

And if/when this dehumanization of women becomes the law of the land, women will die because of it. I don’t know if you know what an ectopic pregnancy is, but women will die from them—both in the short-term due to these laws and in the long-term should Roe be overturned. They’re not survivable, for the mother or fetus, and if the fetus isn’t aborted, the mother dies. That’s it. And that’s just the most immediate medical threat, not even broaching the larger subject of a person’s right to determine what happens literally inside of you. We’ve been reduced to pussies to be grabbed in the national discourse, and had male-dominated legislatures pass laws requiring doctors to penetrate us with medical equipment against our will, before we even got to the aforementioned bills. It’s all an assault on bodily autonomy and the basic freedom to live your life.

That’s why this win matters. This is a victory by women who are unapologetic about their greatness. Women who are funny. Women who demand to be treated equally. Women who won’t deign to let yet another accused sexual predator take credit for their achievements and make it all about him with a stupid photo op at the White House. It’s women who have the balls to do what some male athletes won’t do when it comes to standing up to a bully for that photo op. And it’s women who are unquestionably more successful at what they do than their male counterparts, but who are at risk of losing not just an equal wage but equal rights, thanks to political developments in this country. This victory comes at a time when we’re losing so much, and stand to lose even more, yet it reminds everyone of what women can and do achieve when they’re free to pursue what they want with their lives.

Sports are an escape from this miserable world, and it hurts to be reminded of their political implications sometimes. It would be so much easier to separate the two, but it can’t really be done. And in every historical period, any loosening of social and legal restrictions on women inevitably came with a reactionary backlash (see: late Renaissance/Counter-Reformation Europe and post-WWII America for starters), so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing the same reaction now, post- the supposed “women’s liberation” movement of the late 20th century.

But that means there’s no getting around it here: this USWNT matters, not just because of what they’ve won, but because of how they symbolize the opportunity and respect that we all deserve. Because of how they stand up for women’s and LGBTQ rights under threat. Because young girls whose mothers voted for Trump need to see another side of this society. And because of how it occurred with the backdrop of our achievements and our progress being in such danger now.

Everything Else

Stan’s Off to Market – Free Agent Shopping List: Mats Zuccarello

By Rose Rankin 2125 0

According to all the latest gossip the Hawks think they’ve solved their blue-line issues with the Maata and de Haan signings…no really, they think that! This leaves us with forwards to noodle on as free agency approaches, and while we’re not actually convinced they’ll bring Zuccarello here, at this point, why not go through the thought exercise for shits and giggles? And you may be wondering what the pumpkin image could possibly have to do with him—well, in Italian “zuccarello” means “little pumpkin guy.” No shit, it does. See, you learn something new every day!

Physical Stats

Height: 5’8″ Weight: 185

Age: 31 Shot: Left

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

Team: Stars Position: LW

48 GP – 12 G – 28 A – 40 pts – 24 PIM

49.1 CF% (3.8 CF% Rel) – 52 xGF (5.6 xGF% Rel) – 48.9 oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

Mats Zuccarello could be a legit top-six winger, and if the Hawks can get him off a division foe’s roster, so much the better. Last year was obviously a weird one for him—he was at nearly a point-per-game pace with the Rangers but just when he was traded to the Stars he had a rather freak injury against—who else—the Hawks, and didn’t return until the playoffs. But when he did, he led the Stars in points with 11 in 13 games.

All of this is to say that Zuccarello might come a bit cheaper thanks to the broken arm but he’s also a reliable playmaker. Put him with Toews and Sikura and he may help Dylan finally pop his goal cherry. If CCYP keeps Toews and Kane together, throw Zuccarello on the left side—it’d be a top-heavy situation and personally I want to see Kane with Top Cat and Dylan Strome, but the point is that Zuccarello could be a quality contributor on the top six. And they may be able to get him for under 6 mildo. He understandably wants a payday, and his playoff run will undoubtedly help, but with the Stars dithering and his time missed last year because of injury, the Hawks might just be able to finagle, say, 5.25 and get away with it.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Zuccarello is already north of 30 and will be looking for a big contract. Even if it’s a relative bargain, i.e., not above $6 million, if he wants five years or more that should be a deal-breaker for the Hawks. We have plenty of aging stars signed for long deals already, thank you.

And while he had a good playoff run and scored 37 points in 46 games with the Rangers last year, he’s never put up more than 61 (and that only once) and he averages about 15 goals a year. Erik Gustafsson had more than that last season, for christ’s sake. The last thing the Hawks need is to overpay yet another aging forward who just ends up in the flotsam of the bottom six.

Verdict

Mats Zuccarello would not do significant damage to the Hawks, provided they don’t sign him to some dumbass, 8-year, 6.5 mildo contract. On the cheap he would be a proven playmaker who could improve the scoring of those around him, play top minutes, and be on the power play. I’d certainly rather have Zuccarello on the second unit than Artem Anisimov. But again, overpaying a guy on the downswing is not what the Hawks need. It’d be risky but that’s never stopped them before.

Everything Else

The Children Better Be the Future, Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Dylan Cozens

By Rose Rankin 1474 0

The FFUD #3 Pick Preview rolls on with a guy who has the same name as an injured Phillies prospect, in a coincidence both weird and possibly accurate.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 3″; Weight: 183; Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

League: WHL; Team: Lethbridge Hurricanes; Position: Center

34 G; 50 A; 84 P

Why the Hawks Should Take Him

Cozens can skate. That’s his number one quality, and on this Hawks team that ability shouldn’t be underestimated. We love Dylan Strome around these parts, but skating is definitely not his strong suit. And Toews won’t be getting any faster either. Cozens is most naturally a center, and if  you squint, you could see him as a 3C, ostensibly on an energy line with Kubalik or Sikura or any of the other bottom-six rabble. He can get control of the puck and move it through the neutral zone, and at 6’3″ he’s big enough to win puck battles down low, and then he can use his speed to get up the ice and make a zone entry. Which shouldn’t be that hard but you know what we’re dealing with here.

By all accounts, Cozens is a solid two-way player with a decent shot, and even though he’s tall he’s not a slobbering oaf (yet at least). His offensive capabilities have been noted since he was 16, when he scored eight points in 12 games, the second-most for a WHL player at that age behind Brayden Point. He finished this season tied for 10th in points, and his total of 84 was a 30-point jump from his previous season. So he’s got offensive potential.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Pick Him

Speed is important, don’t get me wrong, but unfortunately Cozens isn’t all that skilled. Yes his numbers are good, but we’re talking about his 16-year-old season? That’s discomforting in its Pierre McGuire-ness. I at least would want his current season to be enough that we don’t have to talk about him basically as a god damn Bantam. And at this point, he’s pretty much a bottom-six guy. Granted, Cozens would be a hell of a lot cheaper than Artem Anisimov, the costliest 4C there ever was, but is it really worth using the third pick on a third-liner? He may be a top-six player one day but that will depend on a lot of improvement.

I guess you could argue that there’s nothing inherently wrong with the Hawks taking another forward, since the depth they have could either 1) end up being filled with shit, or 2) lead to a roulette wheel of forwards and we don’t know who will work well together yet so why not have a whole bunch of them. But if he can’t make it as a center on the depth chart, it’s tough to imagine Cozens on a line with Toews or Strome, since that would leave Top Cat and Garbage Dick to move to their off side (not happening) or Cozens himself would have to move (not proven that could work).

And, with all of that being the case it would be incredibly frustrating to see the third pick come to that, rather than Byram, when we all know damn well it’s the blue line we have to worry about. Seriously, talking about a potential NHL center when there’s a quality defenseman available is annoying in itself, so thanks for that, Hawks.

Verdict

Dylan Cozens wouldn’t hurt the lineup, but he may not help it much either. He could be packaged as part of a deal, since there is no shortage of young forwards for the Hawks to be dealing, but it’s hard to see that as a worthwhile use of a #3 pick. Unless that deal can magically bring Dougie Hamilton, then fine. Even in a worst-case scenario he won’t really do any harm and could potentially be a decent center. So that’s…something? And maybe we’d have another guy to use the Dave Chappelle Dylan gif for.

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: The Champions League Final, or Playing Mad Libs with Metaphors

By Rose Rankin 1268 0

I was trying to decide what to compare the Champions League final to, and—spoiler alert—there isn’t really something that’s comparable in a 1-to-1 way. At first I thought Super Bowl, but this isn’t like two teams coming from two conferences, a neat and clean path to the championship, although the hype and significance of the game itself may be reminiscent of the Super Bowl.

This isn’t like the Stanley Cup Finals either, even though they’re a circuitous path to winning. Champions League includes the top teams from leagues across Europe, so the clubs change (to a degree) each year as league play has the knock-on effect of determining a Champions League berth. And alas, as much as we would prefer never to watch the Ottawa Senators play a professional game again, this variability doesn’t happen in the NHL.

It’s not even really analogous to the World Cup. Yes, both tournaments feature pool play and then knockout rounds, but that’s like saying basketball in the Olympics is the same as the NBA Finals.
It’s not—national(ist) sentiment is different than rooting for your club. Suffice it to say, this is a unique event that combines arduous schedules and length of time, intense fan loyalty, and an international flair all into one.

How Did We Get Here?

And what about the teams themselves? It’s Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, whose name will never not be funny to me because it’s so stereotypically British (say “hotspur” in your head with a British accent). On the one hand, these are both Premier League teams so what the fuck? On the other hand, this is part of the charm—there’s no best of the worst coming from one division or one conference; they earned the right to be here, league be damned.

Is it a David and Goliath scenario? Ehh, not exactly. Liverpool is a powerhouse, but they had issues of their own getting here. Up and down their lineup they’re stacked, including having two of the world’s best forwards in Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino, literally the world’s best defender in Virgil van Dijk, and yet another superlative in goalkeeper in Alisson Becker. However, in the semifinal they ran up against Lionel Messi’s Barcelona and promptly got their ass kicked in the first leg 3-0. To make matters worse, in the second leg a bunch of those “world’s best” I just named didn’t even play—notably Salah and Firmino. And yet, they came out and destroyed Barca 4-0, thanks to substitute Georginio Wijnaldum and his two goals coming within minutes of each other early in the second half. This changed the entire nature of the match, since they had to not just win it but win by more than three goals—really fucking hard to do. (Another relative rando, Divock Origi, had the other two so clearly they can do it without the big names.)

In a way it’s almost like two Cinderella stories because as crazy as Liverpool’s comeback was, Tottenham’s berth is even more insane. They were seconds away from losing to Manchester City in the quarterfinals when a goal got called back for being offside, letting the Spurs squeak by what is, on paper at least, a much better team. A hat trick by Lucas Moura in the second half of the second leg of the semis against Ajax got them here—not unlike Liverpool popping off for a bunch of goals in the last possible moment. And all of this happened without their top striker, Harry Kane, who’s been injured for months. Again, like Liverpool, the entire team made the difference as opposed to reliance on one star player (as Barcelona and Juventus with Messi and Ronaldo, respectively, are painfully aware).

So Where Is It Going?

That’s all fine and good—now what the hell is going to happen, right? Well, Liverpool is ostensibly the better team, particularly with Salah and Firmino playing, and is definitely a big favorite to win. But then again, the Spurs should have been out two rounds ago, should have lost to these other, better teams, and sometimes emotion and momentum are enough in a one-match situation, just like a game 7.

Personally, I think Tottenham will do their thing where they dominate possession but make just enough mistakes for Liverpool to capitalize. Van Dijk practically lets no one get by him with the ball, and I expect the Spurs will struggle to get past him and the rest of the backfield, and even if they do they have Alisson to deal with. Meanwhile, Liverpool can take advantage quickly, move the ball through the midfield and have enough scoring threats to catch Spurs goalkeeper Hugo Lloris on the back foot. He’s not terrible, but I’ll take Alisson over Lloris ten out of ten times. And they only need to do it once, maybe twice, and then shut down Son, Moura and Kane, who will likely play but I question if he’ll be much of a factor coming back from a months-long recovery for an ankle injury.

This is what is likely to happen, but this entire run has been full of unlikely turns of events so I reserve the right to hedge on this. To complicate things further, both the coaches are also world-class-superlative guys. Mauricio Pochettino has done incredible things with a veritable MASH unit all year and may be coaching himself to a better gig, and Jurgen Klopp has been here twice and never won the final, so there’s both experience and ridiculous determination for the prize (especially after losing out on the Premier League title by one fucking point).

It will not be dull and it won’t lack for championship drama—that much I’m confident about. Because, oh yeah, on top of everything, one of those finals that Klopp lost was with Liverpool last year, and Salah got injured early in the game and that is some major motivation for everyone involved. It’s more pressure too, but between the down-to-the-wire Premier League race and this drama, they should be getting used to it.

Even if you’re not that into soccer, this one will be worth your time.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – David Kampf

By Rose Rankin 1704 0

David Kampf ended up being a mildly pleasant surprise this year as basically our best defensive center. And to think, I called him wadded beef! (But seriously, he’s still kind of wadded beef and besides that’s some impressive Photshopping, no?). Let’s do it:

63 GP – 4 G – 15 A – 19 P

49.4 CF% – 48.5 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

Kampf was another solid European scouting pickup a couple years ago, and on the cheap too. He was the closest thing to a shutdown center that the Hawks had this year, particularly as Artem Anisimov sucked out loud and Marcus Kruger got slower and less effective. The numbers aren’t going to wow you, but they should all be viewed in light of this one: 63.6 dZS% at even strength, 70% in all situations. At even strength, his shots against were 371, goals against were 25, and his xGA was 26.6—all of these were second-best to Kruger (among centers) but not by a large margin and Kampf played more minutes. Kampf had 31 takeaways to a paltry 6 giveaways. During the stretch in February-March when he was out with a broken foot, the Hawks barely stayed above .500, going 7-6 (I know, not exactly unique to that time but here me out), whereas they went on a five-game wining streak once he came back and ended on a 9-4-3 record. And while it’s not the most enlightening or useful stat, for shits and giggles his faceoff percentage was 45.3; again, not outstanding yet not awful either in light of his zone starts. All of this is to say that Kampf has shutdown-line center written all over him or, in a worst-case scenario, fourth-line center. With contract negotiations said to be underway, the Hawks can give him a small raise to around $1 million a year and have this shit locked up.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

David Kampf is a bottom-six guy who was on the worst penalty kill in the league. And he was a big part of that PK unit—of all forwards he had the fourth-highest minutes. So I’d like to say he’s an up-and-coming defensive star for the forward corps, but nothing about the Hawks defensively was good enough this season for me to make a statement like that. He’s basically “a guy” for the bottom six who will go no higher than that on the depth chart. And can the slightly better record really be attributed to him coming back from injury? Not entirely, to be generous. And besides, what did it matter anyway? The whole team shat the bed when it mattered most at the end.

Can I Go Now?

The Hawks should re-sign Kampf for a low cap hit and he’ll be an effective 4C, and maybe just maybe we’ll get him, Caggiula, and Kahun making an honest-to-goodness checking line. He could also be part of a penalty kill that somehow learns to play its way out of a paper bag (which it can’t right now). Being wadded beef should be perfectly suitable for David Kampf—unappealing but will keep you from starving in an emergency.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Jonathan Toews

Brandon Saad

Dominik Kahun

John Hayden

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Jonathan Toews

By Rose Rankin 1925 0

It’s become a standard part of the narrative of the 2018-19 season that Jonathan Toews had a much-needed bounce-back year. I’m not here to poke holes in that story, and when a guy has a career high in points in the year he’s 30-turning-31, you shouldn’t bitch too much, right? Well, I’ll always find a way to bitch about something, so let’s do it:

82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P

50.5 CF% – 47.05 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

I’ll just say it again because it’s fun: Toews scored a career-high 81 points this season! And not only that, his 35 goals were a career high as well. Relatedly, his shooting percentage jumped to 14.9%, putting him right back in his average range between the years 2013-2016, and showing that bad luck was in fact playing a role last season. Potting nine power play goals—his most since the ’10-11 season—doesn’t hurt either.

And about that power play…obviously this is another one of the silver linings from this year and there many factors at work here. But, let’s give some credit, one of those factors was Toews parking himself in the slot more, while the rest of the first power play unit finally started moving around rather than just watching Kane, making Toews a more reliable scoring threat. It’s weird to say less movement was an improvement, but in this case, cutting out some useless wandering was in fact a good thing. It bears repeating (and no it wasn’t all because of Toews), but the Hawks’ power play finished 15th in the league—a downright normal number, particularly after having such a god-awful start and after being in the basement the season prior (28th in the league). The first power play unit was the one that got leaned on too, so Toews rightly deserves some credit along with the others. If nothing else, he adjusted to CCYP’s strategy and actually implemented changes, unlike, say, Duncan Keith.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

So the eye test isn’t much of a problem—again, career-high goals and points, functional power play, etc. etc. But it’s in some of the underlying metrics that things with Toews get a little dicier. First, his possession declined by a not-insignificant 5-6%. Last season at 5-on-5 he was at a 56.07 CF%; this year, he was down to 50.5. So he was technically above water but his offensive zone starts remained essentially the same year over year (57.3% in 2017-18, 57.1% in 2018-19). That makes the decline a little concerning. His xGF% isn’t great either. At 5-on-5 it was just over 47%, ranking him below both David Kampf and Marcus Kruger. In all situations it got better—50.34%, but that’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. Granted, this doesn’t mean Toews is done and it’s all over, but it suggest that, just as luck plays a role in a resurgence and the career-high in goals was great, it may be an outlier, not a stable trend.

And there there’s just time…it comes for us all and as healthy and well-conditioned as Captain Marvel is, and presumably will remain, he’s going to continue naturally getting slower as the league just gets faster. But let’s be honest with ourselves: the Hawks are too terrified to scratch an obviously crappy Seabrook—do you think for one second that they would demote a mildly slower Jonathan Toews from the top line? I really hope you know better at this point.

Can I Go Now?

Toews did what we wanted him to do. I was a little unsure about him and Patrick Kane being grouped together again but it worked out better than (at least I) expected. Again, it’s hard to bitch about 81 points, and particularly when it was so sorely needed from our 1C. And yet, it still feels like this was a flash, an exception in the a larger trend of decline for reasons that can’t be stopped. Toews will be the top-line center next year—of that, you can be sure. Whether he’ll still be deserving of it, that remains to be seen.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Artem Anisimov

By Rose Rankin 1570 0

It’s a pretty sad state of affairs when we’re still talking about Artem Anisimov and it’s not “wow they finally traded him,” or “what a relief, he spontaneously combusted and got sucked into a hole in the space-time continuum.” No such luck though, so let’s just get this over with:

78 GP – 15 G – 22 A – 37 P

48.1 CF% – 43.6 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

Look, let’s just be honest—Anisimov isn’t very good. I’m going to make an attempt to be positive in this section of the review because technically I have to, but come on, I’m also not going to insult your intelligence (this time). Anisimov had more points this past season than the 2017-18 season. There, I said something positive!

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

OK, so maybe I’m being a little harsh, but honestly I am just fed up with slow, aging, overpriced clods on this team. And while Brent Seabrook can at least point to the fact that he’s a Hawks legend and supposedly is such a great LEADER IN THE LOCKEROOM as they keep yelling at us, Anisimov can’t say anything even close to that. We have a 2C in Dylan Strome. He may not be the most fleet of foot you’ve ever seen, but he’s a hell of a lot faster than Anisimov. Strome and Alex DeBrincat proved themselves this year—saddling Top Cat with Anisimov borders on criminal negligence at this point.

When Anisimov centered Kane—and this went on for a depressing 485 minutes last season—Arty was consistently a step (or five) behind. Kane would be setting up in the offensive zone and Anisimov would still be well behind in the neutral zone. With Brandon Saad and Dominik Kahun, they were at least above water in possession (56.6 CF% 5v5), but this was on the third line and not for significant minutes. We also have a better third-line center in David Kampf, who is defensively solid, younger and cheaper. Besides, Anisimov isn’t an energy line or checking line guy—he’s too slow, I guess dragging around that unwieldy, wide dick of his.

Even if a third- or fourth-line slot worked with whatever jamokes they could gather, or even if they put Anisimov on the wing as we had scorched onto our retinas at times, this is still paying 4.55 million a year to a bottom-six guy. That’s just insane. None of this is new or the first time you’ve heard this, but it doesn’t get any better as time goes on. In fact, Wide Dick becomes more and more of an albatross with every passing month. And no, I don’t know who they could pawn him off to since, back to the previous point about him becoming an increasingly large issue (SEE WHAT I DID THERE), the older and slower that he gets, the more sweeteners would need to be thrown into any deal to get a team to take him. That would likely mean multiple defensive prospects or who knows what else. It very well might be too steep of a price.

Can I Go Now?

Once upon a time, Anisimov was useful on the power play by just parking himself in front of the net for redirects and rebounds. This year he had all of one power play goal, and a measly three assists. If the Hawks really want a big body who can play that role, you can’t tell me that Victor Ejdsell is any worse than Anisimov. And he sure as shit won’t cost over 4 mildo a year for the next two seasons. But whatever, if the Hawks are lucky they’ll find a moron GM who’s willing to take only a couple prospects along with ‘ole Wide Dick; if they’re not lucky they may have to stomach playing the most expensive 4C in the league.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz