Football

I’m Not Here To Not Get F**ked Up

By Brian Schmitz 1420 0

As everyone knows, the nationwide attention given to the legalization of sports gaming in many states has provided yet another avenue for the NFL to increase its already robust popularity. Twitter is filled with as many “gambling gurus” as there are “models.” As a veteran gambler and former professional football player, I can tell you one thing: anyone who is charging for their gambling picks is a hack. There is no doubt that there a few guys out there who have been super successful over a long period of time. These types of guys don’t share their picks with anyone; much less whore them out on twitter. These guys have made more than enough money gambling that they certainly don’t need the “$85 Tuesday Night MAC-tion Play of the Year!!!”

During this year’s NCAA and NFL seasons, I will be giving out my picks for free. Of course, I can’t make any promises on winnings, and frankly, I don’t really care if you win or not, but I can share with you that I have never had a gambling season under 53%. I think I can help you make some money, but so does Eddie O with his horse(shit) picks and I think I’m roughly 1-73 when taking his advice on the ponies. But that’s neither here nor there.

In my previous life and a professional athlete, I learned a lot about what to expect from a team going into a game. My biggest gambling takeaways from my experiences are this:

  • Teams take on the personality of their coach.
  • Always pay attention to the previous game as well as the following week’s game.
  • If you are unsure on a pick, don’t bet it. But if you hell-bent on betting it, always take the NFL home dog.
  • If you are a trends guy, then only look at the current season. Previous years trends are for losers.
  • Never, ever bet on pre-season games.

Back in my Arena Football League playing days, I would never bet a game that I was playing in. Not because I couldn’t or didn’t want to, but because I had too much respect for my coach and my teammates. However, I would often give family and friends my insight on games and they were free to place a bet if they so choose.

Another gambling story from my playing days was when the University of North Carolina Tar Heels were playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. Our first day there, we were given a stern lecture by a Caesar’s Palace sportsbook manager about how gambling spreads are not a prediction of who was going to win the game, but a way to get two sides to bet evenly on a line. While this thinking is most likely true, the two statements are not mutually exclusive. I feel that an opening line is the truest indication of a final score. The movements in the line then account for the books to get equal action on each side.

Finally, as a gambling side note, here’s a quick story: The Las Vegas Bowl is the greatest bowl game around. You can have your Sugar and Fiesta Bowls; I’ll take playing the Las Vegas Bowl every time. I could fill pages and pages with stories from that week, but in the interest of time and to cater to our readers 2nd grade attention spans, I’ll only share one:

Every day after bowl practice, we were given per diem. This would amount to the value of all our meals and incidental expenses. Every day, without fail, you would have 100 guys take this brown per diem envelope and make a bee-line to the tables. As the entire, and mostly underage, UNC football team was playing blackjack, craps, and roulette, I saddle up to a good friend of mine (who will remain nameless) to play roulette. What I saw next is something I will never, ever forget. My man, who was an All-American and 2x Pro Bolwer, began betting on both red and black at the same time. I see this and I’m like “What the fuck are you doing? It is literally impossible for you to win!” What he said next was either the dumbest or smartest thing I’ve ever heard – to this day I’m still not sure. He looks at me with 1000% seriousness and says “Dawg, you don’t get free drinks if you’re not gambling and I’m not here to not get fucked up.”

Now, almost 20 years and 40 trips to Vegas later, I cannot walk past a roulette table and think to myself “I’m not here to not get fucked up.”

Football

Tight End Reliability Puts Bears In Tight Spot

By Brian Schmitz 1163 0

Be honest with yourself for a second. Do the Bears have anyone of their roster that can be trusted to play and contribute at the tight end position this season? The answer is no. And it’s not even close. Adam Shaheen blows, and if being flat out bad isn’t enough, he’s always hurt. Shaheen was the 45th player selected in the 2017 draft and has struggled athletically to play in the new NFL. The position has morphed into an extension of a Wide Receiver. Slow, plodding, block first Tight Ends are no longer an NFL commodity. This fact is especially true in Matt Nagy’s uber-creative, hair on fire, offense. When he was drafted, Shaheen was compared to Antonio Gates, he is now more comparable to Kevin White. With his height, a healthy Shaheen can be a valued red zone option, especially when he’s split out wide against a shorter corner. However, he will never be the type of guy who can stretch the field, which what was expect when you select a TE in the second round. Here are Shaheen’s career stats against a list of the tight ends that were drafted after the 3rd year pro from Ashland College, whatever the fuck that is:

 

Pick #

 Games Receptions Yards TD
Adam Shaheen 45 19 17 175 4
Jonnu Smith 100 29 38 415 5
Michael Roberts 127 23 13 146 3
Jake Butt 145 3 8 85 0
George Kittle 146 31 131 1,892 7
Jordan Leggett 150 15 14 114 1
Jeremy Sprinkle 154 27 7 54 2
Eric Saubert 174 30 5 48 0
Bucky Hodges 201 0 0 0 0
Mason Schreck 251 6 0 0 0
Jason Croom FA 15 22 259 1
Ricky Seals-Jones FA 25 46 544

4

The actual stats are not terribly bad in comparison to the others, but keep in mind that every single one of these players was drafted in the 4th round or later. As if that doesn’t paint enough of a picture of a player that can be classified as somewhere between a stretch and a bust, here is a list of All-Pro players that were selected after Shaheen:

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Kareem Hunt
  • James Connor
  • Eddie Jackson
  • Tarik Cohen
  • George Kittle

Seeing the names Cohen and Jackson on this list saves some face for Ryan Pace, but these guys were chosen in late rounds, where it’s perfectly acceptable and often genius to take a flyer on a guy with some hidden upside. The 2nd round is not the place to try to show people how smart you are, in fact, it’s a draft place that can get you fired for failures.

If you were to re-do the 2017 NFL Draft, I do not see a scenario in which Shaheen gets selected anywhere sooner than round 5. Overvaluing a player in the draft happens almost 50% of the time; guys simply don’t work out sometimes, that’s just what happens. What really hurts the Bears is that Mitch Trubisky could really use that reliable, possession-type tight end that could serve as a safety blanket similar to what Jason Whitten was to Dak Prescott at the end of Whitten’s career. Hot routes and third read tight end receptions are the types of plays that extend drives. This is currently a glaring hole in a Bears offense that desperately needs this role to be successful.

The blame for the lack of a reliable tight end does not, however, fall only all on the fragile shoulders of Adam Shaheen. 2018 free agent signee Trey Burton had himself a very strong regular season, accounting for 54 catches for 569 yards and 6 TDs. Then the playoffs started and Burton was either physically or mentally unable to play in the most important Bears game since 2010. This very odd occurrence was then followed by an offseason and preseason in which Burton has still not fully recovered from a minor surgery that reported took place sometime in March, almost six months ago.

There is no question, that if healthy, Burton will be a weapon for Mitch Trubisky. However, that is a huge “if,” Each guy has about three weeks left until the opener to get healthy, until then, the entire organization and fan base cannot feel comfortable relying on Burton or Shaheen.

Football

Kicker? I Hardly Know Her

By Brian Schmitz 1754 0

Last Thursday, the Bears lost a football game that didn’t matter. However, for Eddy Pineiro and Elliott Fry it meant everything. Just about every NFL kicker and punter knows that for them, preseason games are just as important as the real games. No other position has as much riding on their future employment as specialists do in preseason games. This was not a preseason game for Pineiro and Fry, this was game 1.

After one game, the Bears kicking situation became only marginally clearer. Here is what we learned:

Because he has a stronger leg, and probably because he was the frontrunner to win the position going into the game, Eddy Pineiro was given the opportunity to kickoff the preseason opener. Pineiro blasted his first offering into the endzone for a touchback and phase 2 of the longest and most talked about kicker competition in NFL history was underway.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 0

After a few stalled drives and Pat O’Donnell bombs, David Montgomery continued to impress with a 7-yard touchdown run. Enter Elliott Fry for the point after; Fry was pure as the Bears tied the game at 7-7.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 1

Fry handled the ensuing kickoff and didn’t have the leg strength to cancel out a return. The ball was fielded at the 1-yard line and brought out 22 yards to the 23-yard line. This was a good coverage kick, however, the best way to limit the possibility of a big return is to ensure there is no return at all.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 0

On the next Bears drive, Pineiro’s night took a turn for the worse as he was called on to attempt a 48-yard field goal late in the second quarter. Pineiro never sniffed the middle of the uprights and was wide left on the attempt. No one would say a 48-yarder is a gimmie, but it certainly won’t get any easier to convert when its December, the turf is green spray-painted frozen dirt, and the wind is blowing 20mph off the lake. A low pressure, preseason, 80-degree Chicago night with no wind to speak of is easily the best conditions to kick in the kicker graveyard known as Soldier Field.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro -2 Fry 0

An impressive 43 second drill from Chase Daniel brought the Bears to the Carolina 25-yard line, which meant Elliott Fry would come on to attempt…wait for it…A 43 YARD FIELD GOAL WITH 3 SECONDS LEFT (in the half). Fry calmly banged home his first FG attempt as a Chicago Bear – a smooth looking ball that never left center cut. The result yielding the loudest fan reaction of the night. Something you may have missed is that prior to the kick, Riverboat Ron Rivera called a time-out. When asked about this decision, Rivera said he was trying to help the Bears and their coaching staff out. This was a very cool moment and shows a lot about the character of one Rico Rivera.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro -2 Fry 3

With just over seven minutes left, Eddy Pineiro had a shot at a little redemption. Pineiro easily punched through a 23-yard field goal to savage what would have been a largely disappointing night for the kicker.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 4

The final kick of the night was an Eddy Pineiro kickoff which failed to reach the endzone. The greater problem with this result and that Pineiro is in this competition due to his supposed kickoff power. This was not evident on this kick vs. the Panthers.

Final Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 0 Fry 4

I feel Fry’s game one performance was good enough to move him ahead in the kicking competition. After going center cut on his first extra point attempt, the former ‘Cock (never not funny) made his only FG attempt. Fry’s kickoffs left something to be desired but placekicking consistency will always trump kickoff strength in a league where a premium is placed on points. This a guy who made 161 of 162 extra points during his college career; there is no concern over his short-range accuracy.

The other participant in the Bears Kickerpolloza did not have nearly as good of a night. While Eddy Pineiro has a stronger leg, consistency issues continue to plague him. This was a first impression of sorts for Eddy, and unfortunately, he had the look and the performance of guy who is struggling with confidence issues.

While extra points and field goals get a majority of the attention in this kicking battle, do not overlook the importance of kickoffs and how they will affect the Bears decision on who stays and who goes. Neither kicker pulled away from the competition last night and the neck and neck race continues. If everything continues as it has, the job will go to the better kickoff man. The Bears will not carry a kickoff specialist on the 53 man roster and Pat O’Donnell cannot fill that role. So, moving forward, look beyond extra point and field goal accuracy and focus on touchbacks and kickoff placement.

So, after almost 900 words about kicking, I leave you with this…right now, I don’t see either guy being the Bears kicker in the week 1 opener vs. Green Bay.

Football

Are The Expectations For Mitch Trubisky Too High?

By Brian Schmitz 2165 0

This is the time of the football year when you literally cannot believe any of the news that comes out of camp. This isn’t just a Bears situation; this is the norm league wide. The NFL’s tightening of media accessibility as well every coach now borrowing the personality of Bill Belichick has basically made training camp the ultimate rumor mill. You could be looking at tweets from two different beat reporters from the same team and they are telling a completely different story of the same player.

Operating off this general baseline, I am not overly concerned about the recent tales of Mitch Trubisky’s struggles thus far in camp. However, given Matt Nagy’s preference to play his starters as little as possible in preseason games, we will have absolutely no idea what to expect from QB1 on Thursday, September 5th Vs. the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Nagy played Trubisky a grand total of 40 plays in the preseason. Reading between the lines, this year figures to be no different. Which begs the question: does this line of thinking retard Mitch’s development?

Trubisky will be better, there is no question about that. But how much better will he be? As it did last year, his athleticism will cover up a lot of shortcomings. Having another year in Nagy’s system will undoubtedly be reason for improvement. And as I have mentioned before, an elite defense will often create a short field which in turn will limit the chances the former Tar Heel QB will have to take on 3rd and long situations. All signs are pointing in the right direction.

Or are they?

Accuracy has been an issue for Trubisky throughout his professional career. Last year, he finished 14th in the league in completion percentage at 66%. This was a 7% increase from his 2017 season. To take this one alarming step further, the Bears starter averaged 7.4 yards in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt – good for 20th best in the NFL in 2018.

There may be a time or two this season when the offense has to win a game on its own, but based on everything I saw last year, I am not yet convinced that this offense as a whole can go out and score 50. While having one of the leagues best defenses is obviously comforting, it also can serve as a safety blanket for the offensive play-calling. Nagy’s system has as many formations as anyone in the league. But rarely do these wild-ass sets yield a big play. The Bears averaged just 5.4 yards per play last season; good for 20th league wide.

Another reason to be cautious about placing your money on Mitch Trubisky for MVP is his decision making; which came under fire much of last year and came to a head in an underwhelming NFL Wild Card game performance against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that couldn’t cover shit. Decision making, or a lack there of, becomes evident only when the bullets are live. OTAs and training camp doesn’t give a quarterback a realistic view of what they are going to face when the red jerseys are off.

If expectations were results, Mitch Trubisky would be the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. I don’t doubt Mitch will improve in his third season; he’s just not a guy who would crack my top 20 QB’s…yet.

Football

Khalil Mack Is The Bears “He Go We Go”

By Brian Schmitz 1518 0

Here’s a quick Public Service Announcement: take some time this fall to appreciate the greatness of Khalil Mack.

Watch a guy who is better at his job than everyone else. Understand that he can do things that some of the greatest players to ever play the sport can’t do.

Last year, Mack had, arguably, the greatest individual season in the history of the Chicago Bears. Take a quick glance at these numbers:
• 12.5 Sacks
• 47 Tackles
• 1 Pick 6
• 6 Forced Fumbles (2 Fumbles Recovered)

What is as scary as it is exciting is that 2018 wasn’t even the best year of his career. Digest these numbers when comparing last years stats to the DE/LB’s 2015 season:

                       2015            2018
  Sacks:             15                 12.5
Tackles:         77                  47
QB Hits:        24                  18

While both seasons are Hall of Fame worthy, these numbers show that it’s not entirely obnoxious to expect more from #52 in 2019. To take this a step further, note that Mack’s 2016 season, the one in which he was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, was probably his 3rd best season to date.

Barring injury, here are some tepid numbers you can expect from Khalil Mack in 2019. These projections are based on what can be deemed an average year for the 6th year pro from U-Buffalo:

  • 1 Interception
  • 1 TD
  • 4 Passes Defended
  • 3 Forced Fumbles
  • 11 Sacks
  • 70 Tackles
  • 16 Tackles For Loss
  • 21 QB Hits

As a point of comparison, NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald finished the 2018 campaign with the following numbers:

  • 0 Interceptions
  • o TDs
  • 1 Pass Defended
  • 4 Forced Fumbles
  • 20.5 Sacks
  • 59 Tackles
  • 25 Tackles For Loss
  • 41 QB Hits

In Mack, we are witnessing a guy who is everything your best player should be, and most importantly, a guy who makes the other 21 guys on offense and defense better. Continued dominance from Mack means that the expectations for Leonard Floyd have metastasized. When your stud is getting double teamed and chipped, the guy on the other end needs to take advantage of the lack of weak side help. Floyd should make a living off 1-on-1s and ultimately make the Bears decide if the $13.2M option for 2020 is worth it. After the first three years of his career, it’s hard to fathom that a $13.2M deal for Floyd is even being considered; but that is the type change Khalil Mack has brought to this defense.

In addition to making individual players better, Mack’s play make’s the entire offensive unit better. Giving the Bears offense a short field is exactly what a 3rd-tier offense needs. 3rd tier huh? Yes. You are what your stats say you are. The Bears were ranked 21st in total offense last year and Mitch Trubisky was, statistically, the 23rd best QB in the league last year. What these numbers tell us is that for the Bears to be great in 2019, Khalil Mack and Bears defense need to overcome what may be a subpar offense.

So again, appreciate Khalil Mack for exactly what he is – A generational game changer. Ultimately, and as crazy as it sounds, he is one of a few guys who will ultimately be responsible for how well this team plays on the offensive side of the football.

Football

The Chicago Bears Will Not Make A Deep Playoff Run In 2019 If…

By Brian Schmitz 1621 0

…Mitch Trubisky doesn’t make a marked improvement in his game.
I am big Mitch supporter. He is one of the hardest working guys on the roster and he may be the most athletic quarterback in the league. But, (and with Mitch there is always a “but”) you are only as good as your stats, and so far, those stats have been underwhelming. Most preseason prognosticators have the Bears winning a lot games despite Mitch, not because of him. And at this point in his career, Trubisky is a 3rd tier QB.

…Kahlil Mack gets hurt
The success of the entire organization rests on the shoulders on Kahlil Mack. This goes so far beyond his individual numbers. This is a guy who makes everyone around him better – just ask Leonard Floyd, who went from bust to baller in the lone season he played with #52. To take this a step further, Mack’s play greatly affects field position, which in turn affects the Bears special teams units which affects the offense. Walter Payton was the last Bear whose individual success will determine the entire organizations prosperity.

…Playoff Matt Nagy returns
Matt Nagy’s last two playoff game performances can be described anywhere from below average to shit down your leg choke job. For whatever reason, Nagy tightens up the playbook in the playoffs and becomes as predictable as Sam Fel’s being drunk on a weekend night. Nagy is one of the best play callers in the league, but, thus far, this hasn’t translated when it matters most.

…Chuck Pagano Does Chuck Pagano Things
Chuck Pagano has been given the keys to a Lamborghini; his only job is to not crash it (What up Lance Briggs?). Pagano doesn’t even need to improve the defensive unit, just keep the status quo and they will win games. The Bears Defensive Coordinator is one of the best/easiest jobs in football – Pagano’s defensive meetings should play out something like this: “Hey you, number 52, you’re better than every other player in the league. Just be you and the rest of us will be fine.”

Tarik Cohen Is Overused
Tarik Cohen is not an every down back. And while that is a curse, it is also a blessing. The 2nd-year RB cannot withstand the wear and tear of being an every down back and scheming against him becomes easier each time you see him on the field. The Bears need a Robin for their backfield Batman, an Ice for their Fire. While it’s not fair to label him as a novelty back; he is definitely not a player who has all the tools to be your lead back when your need is a 3 yards on 3rd down.

Football

Camp Tales – Vol. 1

By Brian Schmitz 2232 0

It was the year 2000, I had just turned 22-years-old and like most of my friends, I was about to begin my first post-college job. Except I wasn’t interviewing with insurance companies or cardboard box manufactures or board of trade firms. Instead, I was living in Albany, New York, playing for the New York Football Giants.

I had no idea what to expect from my first NFL training camp – the closest I had ever come to an NFL camp was driving up to Platteville, Wisconsin one summer only to see Jim McMahon taking a piss in a garbage can. I was 7-years-old…something like that cannot be unremembered.

4 years of high school training camp in the mid 90’s was as uncomfortable as a Cody Parkey Today Show interview: Two-a-days, full pads, full contact, extra conditioning, and no water breaks – all while being told you were a pussy. Like a 15-year old needs to question his self confidence even more.

Training camp in college was much easier; mostly due to the fact that I was now strictly a kicker/punter. This was the type of shit I could handle – no hitting, rarely a full pad practice, and a specialist period that accounted for exactly 1/12 of the total practice time. Kick for ten minutes with the team, go to a side field and kick some more, then socialize – teammates, coaches, managers, trainers – finding literally anyone who would listen.

As I arrived in Albany as the 3rd specialist alongside Brad Maynard and Brad Daluiso, I was overwhelmed by the fact that I had no idea where I was going or what in the fuck I was doing. After a few days, I eased myself into the monotony of an actual, real life, NFL training camp: the morning session for specialists would be reserved for individual work on a side field, while the afternoon session included an early special teams team period. After the special teams period was over, we would head back to our side field for some more individual work, after that we were free to leave. So, to recap, we would basically walk back to the locker room 25 minutes into practice and our day was done. We would then make our way back to the dorms and sit around for hours until team dinner in the cafeteria.

What made these boring afternoons exponentially better was that when we arrived back into our rooms, the extremely fappable Angie Harmon was often there waiting for her fiancé, Jason Sehorn to return from practice. Until he did, Daluiso, Maynard, Angie Harmon, and I would sit there for hours on these shitty, used ass, SUNY-Albany owned couches watching TV and talking about who the fuck knows what. I do recall her saying that Calista Flockhart needs to eat a cheeseburger and that her dad still cuts articles about here from the newspaper and puts them in scrapbook. Other than that, my afternoons were filled by watching her watch TV and try to hide my erection. For the record, she was extremely gorgeous of course, but she was also very kind and borderline funny for a girl. I also remember thinking, like every guy in the world does about the boyfriend of a hot girl; what is she doing with this clown? Aside from his good looks, athleticism, and millions in the bank, what does he have going on that I don’t? It’s amazing to look back and think I was truly convinced that if I could just continue to make her laugh, she eventually couldn’t resist the 165 pound kicker with a non-guaranteed contract who was going to be cut six weeks from now.

So, in conclusion: high school training camp is the absolute worst. Training camp for kickers is the best. And I used to think Angie Harmon was going to dump Jason Sehorn and start fucking me instead. Fast forward almost 20 years later and I am selling industrial warehouses by O’Hare airport and writing football blogs on a hockey website. Sweet!

Sidenote: I apologize if you began reading this with the assumption that you were going to get some super informative Bears training camp talk – I’ll have that for you as well, but I’ll also be sharing my personal experiences from various training camps I’ve been in over the years.