Football

Bears 31 – Redskins 15: If We Didn’t Learn Anything, Does That Mean We Learned Something?

By Brian Schmitz 1608 0

Sigh! For the next six days, Chicago can revel in the relaxation of knowing that the Bears are not as bad as we thought they were; the Washington Redskins on the other hand…ho-lee-shit are they terrible.

A victory on Monday Night Football saw a LOT more good than bad, but it was far from perfect. That said, a 31-15 (which didn’t feel nearly that close, until it did for a few minutes) win on national TV is exactly what this team needed for their own collective mental health.

What set the tone for the Bears offensive breakout was Matt Nagy’s decision to come out of the gate going up-tempo, no huddle. This change in philosophy got Mitch Trubisky and the entire offense into an early rhythm that they never got out of. Along with going up-tempo, Nagy got Trubisky out of the pocket far more than he had in the first two weeks. This change obviously caters to the QBs athleticism but also affords the Bears O-Line the chance to get away from their natural pass-pro sets, which have been lacking at various times this season.

Although the first Bears drive didn’t result in a score, the defense handled the points on the next possession as Ha Ha Clinton-Dix turned a Case Keenum overthrow into a 37-yard pick-6 up the Redskins sideline. At this point in the season, the Bears defense had as many TDs as the offense – sooooo, that kinda sucked – but who cares? The Bears were winning a football game and actually looking OK doing it.

After penalties, and more penalties, and a missed kick, and some unwatchable periods of football, the Bears were able to do something they haven’t done since last January 6th – throw a touchdown pass. What was even more encouraging about this play was that it wasn’t the Trubisky’s first, second, or maybe even third read. Mitch was given a lot time, stayed composed in the pocket, went through his progressions, and made the right throw to Taylor Gabriel. This drive, while still littered with some inaccurate throws, was certainly the most promising of the season.

Seconds later, Khalil Mack did some Khalil Mack shit – which is beat his man off the line (again), swipe at the ball on a fly by, and force a fumble. Danny Trevathian recovered the ball deep in Washington territory, which led quickly to another Trubisky TD throw to Taylor Gabriel on a well-designed play action pass. This was the moment you could feel a collective sigh in and around Chicago. The Bears were the better team tonight, and unless they would suffer a historic meltdown over the remaining 35 minutes, a 2-1 record heading into week 4 vs. Minnesota at Soldier Field was a given.

After yet another forced turnover by the best defense in the league, Trubisky & Gabriel continued their historic night as the duo connected on a 36-yard TD pass. Gabriel became the first player ever with three receiving touchdowns in the same quarter in the long history of Monday Night Football. The Bears were now up 28-0, which is 9 more points than they had in their first two games combined.

Aside from a seven-minute span where Washington decided to act like a real-life NFL team, the 2nd half was largely uneventful. The Redskins eventually returned to being the Redskins and this “get-well” for the Bears game was on ice – a 31-15 road win that could have not come at a better time.

Bear Scats
• There are extended periods of time when the only reason to watch this team is to see how dominant the Bears defense is. They are a unit, that with any sort of help from a competent offense, can win a Super Bowl. It’s a rare thing in sports these days to see a defense which is more entertaining to watch than an offense – but this what we are lucky enough to be witnessing in Chicago this season.

• My personal highlight of the Redskins 3rd drive was Adrian Peterson getting stuffed on yet another 1st down run attempt and showing his frustration with his horseshit O-Line. Fast forward then to the 3rd quarter where Peterson was visibly pissed about not getting any red zone carries. To be honest, I’m not sure how much longer we are going to see Peterson in a Redskins uniform. Even though he seems to think its 2009, he’s not a featured back at this point in his career – which means he’ll probably get released, sign with the Patriots, and average 100 yards per game.

• Why was Booger McFarland incessantly calling for the firing of Jay Gruden? Say it once, fine. But to continue to say it over and over shows there is more to his comments than just his own professional opinion. I am a big Jay Gruden fan – I played for Jay and he’s a great dude. He hasn’t exactly been put in a position to succeed in Washington, and on top of that, his boss is a certified weirdo how still doesn’t know how to run a professional football franchise after all these years.

• Mitch Trubisky finished 25/31 for 231 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT – he was much better tonight against a very bad defense, but I still don’t trust his accuracy. Even a handful of his completions were poorly thrown balls, which gave his receivers no chance at any YAC numbers. Sunday afternoon vs. Minnesota will give us all a very good picture of where we are with Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback of a team that has very strong Super Bowl aspirations.

• Remember when Tarik Cohen & Anthony Miller were the offensive weapons of the future? How’s this working out? Cohen rushed four times for -2 yards. Miller had one catch. Matt Nagy needs to get these two guys involved if he not only wants to keep them happy, but also wants to see this offense flourish this year and beyond. Aside from QB play, the lack of production from Cohen and Miller is very disheartening.

So, What Does It All Mean?
The Bears won a game they had to win against an opponent that deserved to lose. I am not sure how much we learned this week, but it’s better than the alternative, which would be knowing for certain that Trubisky and Nagy and the O-Line all suck and this teams has no chance. Minnesota on Sunday will be a realty check for this team. I am excited to see how they respond.

Football

Week #3 – QB Study: Would You Rather Have CASE KEENUM As Your Quarterback?

By Brian Schmitz 1268 0

Do you know who the quarterback of the Washington Redskins is? No? Well, when the Bears face the Redskins this week on Monday night, they will be going up against a quarterback who is quietly having as good of a season of anybody not named Mahomed or Prescott. Redskins QB Case Keenum–yes, Case Keenum–has started the season by putting up the following gaudy numbers:

There is not a single stat on this line that an OC, HC, or GM wouldn’t be ecstatic about. Now take it a step further and realize that every stat is better than what Mitch T is doing here in Chicago. Pay especially close attention to the 70% completion number, the 300 yards/game, the 5-to-0 TD to INT ratio, the two sacks taken, and finally, the 111.2 passer rating. If, and it’s a big if, these numbers continue through the next 14 games, Case Keenum will be in line for a Pro-Bowl appearance and more importantly for him, a huge pay raise heading into unrestricted free agency. Could this be a guy that is brought in to replace compete with Mitch Trubisky next season? Only time will tell, but I’m not counting it out and I’m not not excited about it.

Monday Night Football Matchup

Enough about next season, what can we expect for Keenum on Monday night? For one, you can anticipate most of his throws to be completed 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. Last week against a very good Cowboys defense, Keenum’s throw chart looked like this:

What also stands out is Coach Jay Gruden’s affinity for both traditional screen and tunnel-screen looks. 12 of Keenum’s 37 attempts were within two yards on the LOS. Additionally, only three passes over 20 yards were attempted. What all this means is that the Bears linebackers will play a significant role in pass coverage; something that they struggled with against Green Bay in the opener when Jimmy Graham was able to get open for much of the game.

The Redskins QB throw chart in Week 1 against an Eagles defense that quashed the Bears in the playoffs last season was very similar within that 10-yard range. However, the screen package was not as evident as most of the short passes were the 3-7 yards range. Keenum’s overall performance against the Eagles was uber-proficient:

In Comparison

Just in case you were wondering, here is a quick snapshot of Mitch Trubisky’s performance against what amounts to same Eagles defense last year:

My biggest takeaway from comparing these charts was that Keenum was vastly more effective on virtually the same amount of attempts. What is ultimately most maddening about the overall comparison is that Keenum was undrafted while we all know where Mitch was drafted and what was given up to get him. Fuck!

Can Case Keenum Beat The Bears By Himself?

On Monday night, Keenum will ultimately be responsible for how his offense performs. The Redskins running game is brutal; rushing for 28 yards and 47 yards in their first two games. Adrian Peterson will go down as one of the greatest dads running backs in NFL history but it’s not 2009 anymore and Peterson is probably best suited not suiting up. The dire running back situation puts the onus on Case Keenum and his receivers to carry the franchise. Keep an eye on rookie Terry McLaurin, who has been phenomenal thus far with almost 190 yards and two TDs thru two weeks. However, in what appears to be an effort to ease McLaurin into the offense, he lines up exclusively on the left side of the field. If this trend continues, this will undoubtedly help the Bears match up with the electric rookie out of THE Ohio State.

So What Does This All Mean?

Reskins coach Jay Gruden is an offensive genius. He is going to find ways to match up his skill guys with linebackers and try to exploit as many of these scenarios within 10 yards of the LOS as possible. I think Case Keenum will continue to perform at an elite level and the Redskins will defeat the Bears in a very close game.

Football

Wide Receivers Are Very Special People – Inside The Locker Room – Vol. 1

By Brian Schmitz 1272 0

In dissecting the never-ending news stream that is Antonio Brown, I can’t help but be reminded of one of my favorite all-time teammates. A teammate that will re-name nameless for reasons you will appreciate as you finish reading the following story. For the sake of clarity, this teammate shall be referred to as “Not Alvin Harper.” Keep in mind, this is a story best told live, but I will do my best to provide as much detail as possible in an effort to truly capture how entertaining this entire saga was.

The year was 2003, and I was playing Arena Football for the Orlando Predators. Our coach was Jay Gruden, who also happened to be our quarterback; now that’s some Arena Football shit. Jay was the best! Super funny. Always laughing. Never taking himself or the job too seriously. Loved to party. He was just a good, normal dude. So, if being the quarterback and head coach of a professional football team wasn’t enough, Jay was also the Player Personal Director who was in charge of signing and cutting all players.

During training camp, Jay decided all his receivers sucked; so he cut all of them and signed Travis McGriff and went out and traded for a guy who was arguably the greatest WR in Arena League history; not to mention a former Super Bowl winner with the Dallas Cowboys. Unlike most of us, this guy wasn’t in the AFL because he wasn’t good enough for the NFL, he was in the AFL because he couldn’t stop drinking and blowing rails. The Arena League was the perfect landing spot because there was no drug testing of any kind. Coke, Weed, Meth, Oxy, PEDs – anything and everything was acceptable. The reason being is that the AFL did not want to pay for rehab for offenders so they just decided not to drug test anyone for anything.

Once the season started, every Monday (our off day), “Not Alvin Harper” would throw a party for the team at our housing complex pool. Except this wasn’t just some guys with pizza and cans of Bud Light listening to a radio; this was a full on jam in which he would pay for all the booze, food, and a DJ. Everyone was invited. Whether it was some professionals from Dockside Dolls or some Hooters waitresses or even some homeless dudes one time. This weekly free-for-all made Tuesday morning practices especially entertaining to watch.

Virtually every football team starts their practices in the same manner: a pre-practice period, followed by stretch, followed by an individual period. The individual period for quarterback and receivers starts by going thru the route tree on air. On this one very special Tuesday practice in which I will never forget, “Not Alvin Harper” decided to not go to bed after partying through the night. He strolls out to practice late and immediately jumps into the receiver drills. The first route he runs is a simple hitch, the easiest route in football history and one that 2nd grade football players learn on day one. But on this day, “Not Alvin Harper” comes off the line, hits his five hard mark, stops, and promptly forgets to put up his hands to catch the ball. As the ball rockets off his chest, he doesn’t recognize what just happened and simply runs back to the line of scrimmage and to the back of the receiver’s line. The next route is a slant. Again, “Not Alvin Harper” comes sprinting off the line, hits his 3-yard mark, turned on a 45 degree angle. This time he remembers to use his hand to catch the ball, but he places them about two feet too far apart and the ball hits him on the facemask which knocks the ball and his helmet into the air. What happened next is the single funniest thing I’ve ever seen on a football field: “Not Alvin Harper,” after taking the ball off the face-mask, doesn’t break stride and keeps running his route completely off the field and into the locker room. As he’s running away, something catches my eye – “Not Alvin Harper” wasn’t wearing any socks or shoes. He had forgotten to wears socks and cleats and was running around barefoot thinking no one would notice.

As if this entire seen wasn’t enough, when we returned to practice, “Not Alvin Harper” was sleeping on the floor in the middle of the locker room and his car was parked on the infield dirt inside a local minor league baseball stadium that was adjacent to our practice facility.

***My favorite part of this story was that he went out three days later and caught 11 balls for 102 yards and three TDs.

Football

Week #2 – Quarterback Spotlight: Average Joe

By Brian Schmitz 1425 0

When the Bears face Joe Flacco and the Denver Broncos on Sunday, you can’t help but think they will be looking into a mirror or sorts. See, Flacco is the one quarterback in the league whose skill set most resembles Bears QB Mitch Trubisky. Granted, being a Super Bowl champion makes Flacco a far more successful pro, but his own individual Ravens career could best be described as somewhere between meh and shouldn’t Joe Flacco be better? Sometimes, when you win a Super Bowl with an elite defense, all you really need from your quarterback is to be average – sound familiar?

Now, would the Bears love to have a mediocre Joe Flacco behind center this year? I would answer with a resounding YES! Flacco has been a very good game manager throughout this career, and with Vic Fangio taking over a very defensive minded Broncos team; the “game manager” nametag figures to stick to Flacco again this season.

As we look ahead to week 2, the Bears front 7 will take on the brunt of responsibility in limiting Flacco on Sunday. Based on what we learned about the Bears defense vs. Green Bay, as well as Flacco’s performance against the Raiders in the opener, I would expect the Bears defense to be extremely successful for the second straight week. The Bears made Aaron Rodgers look pedestrian last Thursday, and you Joe Flacco, are no Aaron Rodgers. Because of that, I do not envision a scenario where the Broncos QB is the reason why they win this Sunday. However, I also do not envision a scenario where the Broncos QB is the reason why they lose this Sunday.

Where Will The Broncos and Flacco Attack the Bears Secondary?

Going back to the 2016 season, the Charted Passer Rating results paint a very accurate picture of just how consistently inconsistent Flacco has been:

2016

Joe Flacco Qb-grid Chart

2017

Joe Flacco Qb-grid Chart

2018

Joe Flacco Qb-grid Chart

This chart shows a general lack of consistency in any given yardage or portion on the field. Almost every NFL quarterback has a throw that they know they can make in their sleep. Joe Flacco, based on these charts, is the exception to that rule. Watch for the Bears to match up based far more on personnel than they will on where Flacco is comfortable throwing the ball.

 

What Did We Learn From Flacco in Week 1?

In dissecting Flacco’s week 1 performance, there are a few things to be aware of as you watch the Broncos QB take on the Khalil Mack & Co.:

  • Week 1 was vintage Joe Flacco in almost every way:
    • 1 TD
    • 0 INT
    • 68% Completion Percentage
    • 8.6 Yards Per Attempt
    • 268 Passing Yards
    • Sacked 3X
      • Although this stat line screams “Game Manager,” it is also a game I’d take week in and week out from Mitch T.
      • It is also worth noting that Flacco put together a nice portion of his numbers when the game was pretty much decided. If not for ten 4th quarter points on scoring drives of 54 yards and 75 yards, Flacco and the entire Broncos offense could have been classified as Bears-esque.
  • Courtland Sutton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Noah Fant all averaged over 14.5 yards per catch. Would I trade the Bears receiving corps for this group? No. But for one week, their QB put them in a position to be successful, which is something we cannot say about the Bears QB in week 1.
  • Joe Flacco had 1 rushing attempt for 1 yard. As he is somewhat limited athletically, he must go through his progressions and look beyond his first option or 2. This is the opposite of the far more athletic Mitch Trubisky, who looks to use his feet almost immediately after his first read has been taken away. Listen, I love Mitch’s athleticism, and I talk about it often, but sometimes he’s simply too athletic for his own good.
  • The Bronco’s O-Line is an abortion. They quite honestly may be the worst non-Dolphins unit in the league. This could get ugly for Flacco on Sunday, who at this point in his career may be more about personal wellness than sitting in the pocket getting his crank kicked in.

As Such:

If the Bears can control the Broncos running game and their defense plays according to plan, then Joe Flacco isn’t going to be the guy who can put a team on his back and beat you – that just isn’t in his makeup. He has made a career by being a serviceable NFL starter and he has experienced a great deal of team success in that role, but I don’t see him becoming super human on Sunday against one of the best defenses in the league; which is why the Bears will earn their first W of the year in yet another low scoring, borderline unwatchable affair.

 

Football

Week 1 – Packers 10, Bears 3: Don’t Believe The Hype?

By Brian Schmitz 1055 0

If Super Bowl rings were given out for pre-game hoopla, over the top predictions, and general meatheadedness, the Bears wouldn’t have needed to play another game this year – “Crown they ass” tonight and have the parade tomorrow. But always remember, the hype is just that, hype. Once the game was finally kicked off, none of the peripherals mattered anymore, and this was truly unfortunate for the Bears.

In what was a harbinger of things to come, the Bears, a 3 ½ point home favorite, limped out of the gate offensively; Managing only 98 yards in the first half and looking like a unit that hadn’t had any preseason game action to get ready for actual, live, as real as it gets, fucking games. Somehow despite their impotent offense, the Bears were able to garner a 1st quarter lead with a Field Goal. Who would have believed that a 1st quarter, 38-yard Field Goal from Eddie Pineiro would be the beginning and the end of the Bears scoring output for the night?

After the Pineiro 3-pointer, the next promising Bears drive stalled out at midfield after Matt Nagy wanted to show everyone how creative he was and ran wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson up the center’s ass on 3rd & short for a loss. If we are going to sit around and talk about how creative Nagy is and how much fun it must be to play in his system, then we must recognize when he gets too cute for his own good. This was certainly one of those instances.

A great Pat O’Donnell punt was downed inside the 10, and the defense was back on the field, which at this point in the game, was the Bears best offense. Overall, the Bears were “who we thought they were,” which is damn dominant. The Packers offense managed only 213 yards, of which 47 yards came via the run. Even future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers was limited to 166 yards on 18-30 passing while being sacked 5 times. This is the beautiful thing about this Bears team; the defense can keep them in every game, even as the offense is still a work in progress.

Thankfully for my eyes, a very boring and borderline unwatchable first half ended on a stalled Bears drive and a failed Packer Hail Mary. At this point, the game almost had a pre-season feel to it; penalties and mistakes everywhere, missed assignments, and general fuckery overall.

The 2nd half started with more of the same from Trubisky and the offense; another 3 & Out. At this point, the game felt like Trubisky wasn’t exactly struggling, there was just has not any room for him or the running game to operate. The general lack of offensive success that we saw throughout this game was more a byproduct of a much-improved Packers defense than it was of poor execution on the offensive side of the ball.

But then suddenly, and finally, things changed. With about 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, something clicked in the passing game and the offense was able to establish some momentum. Trubisky hit on a few medium/deep balls (which he has struggled with his entire career) and even though the next two drives stalled out due to penalties, some continuity was finally taking place on the offensive side of the ball. Another reason to be positive at this point was that, despite being 1-11 on 3rd down, the Bears were only down by 4 points with 9:00 remaining in the 4th quarter.

A short Mason Crosby Field Goal extended Green Bay’s lead to 7 with 5:00 remaining, and soon thereafter, we reached the seasons first tipping point: facing a 3rd & 10, Trubisky found Allen Robinson for a first down inside the Packers 30-yard line. As this impressive 13 play drive continued, was it improbable to think that, even though the Bears have scored 3 points in 55 minutes, they would tie this thing up? Hopes were quickly dashed and we got our answer immediately thereafter as Mitch Trubisky hung up a corner route and was picked off by former Bear Adrian Amos to essentially end the game.

The electricity of one of the most anticipated season openers in team history had now become a deafening silence. This wasn’t just another regular season opener, it felt different, it seemed to mean more.

In the end, the Bears lost.

To the Packers.

At Soldier Field.

On their 100th anniversary.

This one stings.

It’s extremely hard to come up with any concrete takeaways after the first game of the season, however, there are a few things to question and/or consider:
• It’s fair to blame the offensive struggles on simply being out of sync, but at what point in the game or the season can we stop making excuses for a Bears offense that was average (at best) last year and flat out mediocre tonight?

• All I heard all week is how old Jimmy Graham is and how he’s a shell of his former self. Well, I’d take this dude over any Tight End on the Bears roster. Not only was he a great red zone target tonight, he was arguably the only Packers receiver who had the ability to stretch the field.

• The number of flags and stoppages kept this game from having any flow to it whatsoever. Add this to what was a very inefficient offensive performance by both teams, and it was a shitshow from a viewing perspective.

• Allen Robinson sneaky had a 100-yard receiving game; none more important than that drive saving catch on 3rd & 10 late in the game. His 13 targets were a game high.

• Anthony Miller did not produce a single catch while only being targeted 1 time. If the Bears want to be successful this year, this has got to change.

• Tarik Cohen and I had the same amount of rushing attempts and rushing yards tonight. When you talk so much about making it a priority to get this guy the ball, why is it that he so often disappears?

Football

Back To The Future – 8-8 Bears Finish 2019 Season Out Of The Playoffs

By Brian Schmitz 1388 0

In the NFL, the fortunes of any given team can change in just one play. What would happen to the Patriots if Tom Brady goes down in Week 1? Would the Bears even be a playoff team if Khalil Mack is out for the year? Scenarios like this are what make predicting a team’s record so hard. But, it’s an entertaining exercise, and really enjoyable to look back in March and realize how dumb I was.
So, without further ado, I present my 2019 Chicago Bears prediction:

• Week 1 Vs. Green Bay Packers
I am honestly more excited to see that Aaron Rodgers can do with a new offense than to see how much the Bears can improve after last year’s success. I truly feel like the lack of pre-season game reps will hurt Mitch Trubisky and the Pack will do just enough to win a low scoring affair.

• Week 2 Vs. Denver Broncos
Although traveling to Denver to play at elevation is never easy, I believe the Bears, who will be working off of a 10 day rest, are the more talented team and will win their first game of the season.

• Week 3 Vs. Washington Redskins
Crazy things happen when you play a Monday night road game. Although the Bears are clearly the better team in this matchup, I think they get shocked as a road favorite.

• Week 4 Vs. Minnesota Vikings
Coming off two losses and a short week, the Bears will somehow find a way to beat the Vikings at Soldier Field on a late game…wait for it…43-yard field goal.

• Week 5 Vs. Oakland Raiders
Because they are the better team, the Bears head into the bye week with a close win and even their record vs. the Brothers Gruden at 1-1.

• Week 7 Vs. New Orleans Saints
Coming off a bye week, the Bears return home and get throttled. This is one of the few games of the season where the Bears defense seems overmatched.

• Week 8 Vs. LA Chargers
Back to back games against offense juggernauts poses a problem as the Bears lose their 2nd straight for the 2nd time this season. Things in Chicago are starting to get anxious.

• Week 9 Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Panic much? The Bears lose their 3rd straight to Eagles in their first road game in almost a month. The realization that playing a 1st-place schedule is starting to set in.

• Week 10 Vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions are exactly what this struggling team needs as the Bears blow out one of the NFL’s worst teams.

• Week 11 Vs. LA Rams
The Bears go 0-for-Los Angeles as the Rams show everyone who the class of the NFL is. Bears move to 0-3 in primetime games this season and have still not beaten a good team on the road.

• Week 12 Vs. NY Giants
A must win for a team that begins a portion of the schedule that becomes increasingly getable. Bears big in this one, which is much needed heading into Thanksgiving.

• Week 13 Vs. Detroit Lions
Three days off don’t matter as the Bears win their second straight overall and sweep the season series from the lowly Lions. This is an impressive win for a team that is having trouble with its own confidence.

• Week 14 Vs. Dallas Cowboys
Another primetime loss as the Bears enter the toughest part of the schedule with their playoff chances slipping away.

• Week 15 Vs. Green Bay Packers
The Bears keep their playoff dreams alive with a road win. The defense shuts down Aaron Rodgers and make up for the season opening loss.

• Week 16 Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Coming into the game as a home dog, Chicago contains Patrick Mahomes and earns their first primetime win of what has become a very trying season for the offense.

• Week 17 Vs. Minnesota Vikings
With a potential playoff berth on the line, the Bears lay an egg on the road and fail to qualify for the postseason. An offseason full of questions are ahead, especially at the Quarterback position.

Final Record: 8-8 (4-4 Home, 4-4 Away); Do not qualify for playoffs. The City of Chicago burns to the ground.

Football

Packers Spotlight: Aaron Rodgers May Not Be The Best Brother or Son, But That’s OK Because He’s The Greatest QB Of All TIme

By Brian Schmitz 2100 0

On Thursday night, the Bears will kick off one of the most anticipated seasons in team history. This game will not only determine who lands the first blow in the NFC North, it will also give us a fairly good idea if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are going to make any noise this year. Much like how the Bears defense will ultimately determine the team’s success, the Packers offense will do the same. Mike McCarthy’s high school offense is gone, but I’m not sold on his replacement. Matt LeFleur has called plays for a grand total of one NFL season; and the results were miserable as the Titans finished 26th last year in total offense. But if we are all being honest with each other, do we really believe that anyone other than Aaron Rodgers will be calling plays for the Packers this year? Rodgers has made it very clear that this is his organization moving forward. What the 2018 Titans didn’t have is something the Packers have had for 14 seasons and counting: the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. With a QBR of 103.1, there is not a single player in the history of the league with a higher rating. Not Tom Brady. Not Joe Montana. Not Dan Marino. Not Peyton Manning. Don’t believe me? Look at this:

                                 QBR    Comp. %    Pass YPG    Int %    TD %
Aaron Rogers       103.1   64.8            260.3          1.5        6.2
Tom Brady            97.6    64.0            262.1           1.8        5.5
Joe Montana        92.3    63.2             211.2           2.6        5.1
Dan Marino          86.4    59.4             253.6          3.0        5.0
Peyton Manning 96.5    65.3              270.5          2.7         5.7

As if being really, really, good isn’t enough, Rodgers is especially dangerous against the Bears. In 21 career games, the future Hall of Famer has lit up Chicago to the tune of:
• 17 Wins
• 5 Losses (Including 1 loss where Rodgers was knocked out in the 1st quarter)
• 45 Touchdowns
• 10 Interceptions
• 67% Completion Percentage
• 5,156 Passing Yards
• 105.9 Passer Rating

These are video game numbers that deserve not only your respect, but also your admiration. You are getting a chance to watch the greatest quarterback to ever play. Keep in mind that Rodgers put together a lion’s share of these numbers against guys like Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, and Brown; who have all individually called A-Rodg the greatest QB they have ever played against. So please take some time off from motherfucking the guy and appreciate his greatness; even if a lot of the highlights came against your team and made you want to kick him in the dick.

While I don’t anticipate Rodgers having a huge game Thursday night, it is extremely nearsighted to think he won’t show up. We are talking about a guy who threw for 25 TDs vs. 2 INTs last season in one of the least creative offensive systems in football. As a comparison, Mitch Trubisky threw two or more INTs in four of his 14 starts last year. Trubisky doesn’t have to be Rodgers for the Bears to win on Thursday night, but he must protect the football like Rodgers. In a season in which defenses will be far more prepared for Matt Nagy’s schemes, ball security from the quarterback position is a major concern.

If you are a Bears fan looking for reasons to be optimistic about Thursday nights opener, keep in mind that the Packers are only 11-11 in primetime games dating back to 2014. They are also 0-5 in their last five primetime road games and 3-10 overall on the road in primetime since 2014. Another reason to be optimistic on Thursday is the fact that the last five Packers coaches have lost their first game against the Bears. Mike McCarthy, Mike Sherman, Ray Rhodes, Mike Holmgren, and Joe Philbin have all took an L. If the Bears can contain Aaron Rodgers Thursday night, David LeFleur will be the latest to add his name to this list.

Football

Have The Bears Always Sucked At Quarterback?

By Brian Schmitz 2168 0

Who is the greatest QB to ever play for the Chicago Bears? This is tough question because, over the last 100 years, the options have been very, very slim. So, here’s a quick exercise: I am going to provide you some QB statistics, but without the years, names, or numbers. You are the GM and you get to decide who is the best player to lead your team at the quarterback position.

Career Stats

Games     Record     Comp %     TD %     INT %     QBR     Pass Yards/Game
Player A      119            67-30       58               3.9          3.5           78.2      152.5
Player B      153            74-79       62               4.6          3.3           85.3      229.6
Player C      26              15-11        63.5            4.1          2.5           87.7       208.3
Player D      128            NA           51.8            7.9          7.6           75          114.7

Career with Bears

Games      Record     Comp %     TD %      INT %     QBR      Pass Yards/Game
Player A     119             67-30 58 3.9 3.5 78.2 152.5
Player B     153             74-79 62 4.6 3.3 85.3 229.6
Player C     26              15-11 63.5 4.1 2.5 87.7 208.3
Player D     128            NA 51.8 7.9 7.6 75 114.7

Career Stats with One Team:
Games Record Comp % TD % INT % QBR Pass Yards/Game
Player A 66 46-15 57.8 4.4 3.7 80.4 169.7
Player B 102 51-51 61.8 4.7 3.3 85.2 229.8
Player C 26 15-11 63.5 4.1 2.5 87.7 208.3
Player D 128 NA 51.8 7.9 7.6 75 114.7

Best Single Season Stats:
Games Record Comp % TD % INT % QBR Pass Yards/Game
Player A 13 11-0 56.9 4.8 3.5 97.8 184
Player B 15 6-9 64.4 4.3 2.3 92.3 243.9
Player C 14 11-3 66.6 5.5 2.8 95.4 230.2
Player D 10 NA 54.5 13.9 5.9 107.5 219.4

Based on these numbers, each player would receive the following overall adjusted performance grades: (Note that Games Played and Records are not figured into the performance grades.)
Plus Minus Overall
Player A 0 3 -3
Player B 4 2 +2
Player C 7 1 +6
Player D 4 9 -5

Unfortunately for all old school Bears fans who don’t want to look at actual statistics, Player D is none other than Sid Luckman. And before you talk about Luckman’s rushing prowess taking away from his passing yards/game, you must recognize that QBR considers rushing yards into the equation. Sid Luckman is somehow in the Hall of Fame; which is an entirely different argument. Because, really, his numbers do not exactly ooze Canton-worthy. It probably didn’t hurt that the Halas family basically ran the league back then and they got whatever they wanted. Sid Luckman in the Hall of Fame is akin to Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame – the comps are just not there. Finally, I have never seen a single down that Sid Luckman has ever played, either live or on tape. This is because I have no interest in watching him play against guys who moonlighted as professional football players when they had some off time from their jobs as stone masons and iron workers. Sid Luckman was a good player is his era, but he probably would be a D3 player in this age.

Next up on chopping black is Player A. This is going to hurt a lot of die-hard Bears fan because this guy was basically a mascot for the fans – the problem is he was never really that good. Player A is Jimmy McMahon. Never in the history of the league has a QB benefitting more from a great defense and a great running back. McMahon’s job was never to win a game, it was simply not to lose it; which reminds me of someone else; (see Player C.) Bears superfans (who are probably the worst fans in all of sports) will argue about McMahon’s record. But let’s be honest, very few NFL quarterbacks could have fucked that team up. Shit, that defense made Steve Fuller a serviceable player; which is a testament to how great they were. So sorry Jim, you made a career and a life for yourself as the starting QB of a Super Bowl champion, the problem is, you just weren’t that good.

The next QB listed currently stands as the greatest signal caller in Bears history. Player B is the guy that an entire city loved to hate, Jay Cutler. Cutler’s Bears career was perfectly average if you look at his record, but to win 51 games with the type of coaches, receivers, and linemen he had is truly remarkable. His skill set is far and away the best the Bears have ever had and rivals some of the best QBs in this current NFL era. His physical attributes were at the top of his class; but you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit, and entire organization was exactly that, shit. Years from now, I think Cutty will finally be appreciated for his on the field contributions. Forget what you think you know about him off the field, the guy was as athletically gifted and as tough as any quarterback to ever wear the Bears uniform…and it’s not even close.

Present day Bears fans dicks will get even harder knowing that Player C is the chosen one to resurrect the franchise. Although only a sample size, Mitch Trubisky’s numbers, when projected over an entire career, show that the Monsters offense is in pretty good hands. That said, this organization, for a plethora of reasons, has somehow never had a great QB; you’d think over the course of 100 years, you’d get lucky once or twice, however, this hasn’t occurred. The truth is this, the Bears only need Trubisky to be as good as Cutler. If Jay had this defense and this offensive scheme and these receivers and this line, the Bears would have been perennial playoff contenders, but they didn’t have this current teams supporting cast, so they were really fucking hard to watch. Regardless, if Trubisky continues to improve at the rate he is currently on, he will ultimately sign a long-term deal and the Bears will finally have a franchise quarterback.

You deserve this Bears fans, and even if Mitch ends up being more Shane Stafford than Aaron Rodgers, you will still be fortunate enough to watch him in his prime, playing for your team.

Football

Week 1 College Football Picks

By Brian Schmitz 1358 0

Looking at point spreads from a former players point of view has been decidedly profitable for me over the years. When we place a bet on a game, we are basically guessing. You have a 50% chance to be right. Thru my playing experience, I have learned to become a sports gambler and not a sports guesser. The result, through a lot of different systems I have created, has been a few dollars on the plus side for every year since I really started paying attention to the lines in 2005.
My style is not to give you my picks for the week by writing 1,000 words on why I am betting a certain game – you don’t really care how I come about my picks – you just want the damn picks and they better all be winners. I get it.

• Syracuse – This cover will be a close call, but Syracuse is coming off a reenergizing year and I don’t yet expect them to take the Liberty Flames for granted.
• Mizzu – Missouri is going to walk all over Wyoming in a low scoring affair. Somehow, the points are also going Mizzu’s way. The score wont be close, but the cover will be interesting.
• Alabama – Bama has something to prove and Duke is just good enough for the Tide to give them their full attention.
• Fresno – Fresno will take advantage of yet another overrated USC team as they continue to fool bettors with a fairly easy cover.
• Notre Dame – I know, I know. Its extremely hard to take any delight in betting with Notre Dame; however, this is money, and we are taking the Irish big.
• Mississippi St – Admittedly, I know very little about either of these teams, which makes this play my favorite because the numbers take away any bias I may have; which in this case, I don’t.  This is my top rated game of the week.

Recap:

1 Unit
o Syracuse

2 Unit
o Alabama
o Fresno

3 Unit
o Notre Dame

4 Unit
o Mississippi St

Football

Denver? The Sunshine State? Gorgeous!

By Brian Schmitz 1326 0

Regardless of how great the 2019 Bears defense is supposed to be, the success of the team will ultimately rely on the play of third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. This could be a problem if Trubisky’s advanced metrics from the 2018 season are any indication of future performance. To be clear, I am convinced #10 for the Bears will be markedly better this season, however, an advanced look into his stats for the 2018 season do not paint the prettiest picture for an organization that has never truly had an elite passer under center.

So, before you make your Super Bowl reservations, I took a deep dive inside some numbers from last season that go way beyond your layman QB stats:

Deep Ball Accuracy

  • Despite ranking #8 in all of the NFL in Deep Ball Attempts, Trubisky ranked #29 in Deep Ball Completion rate at 29.6%. This number shows Matt Nagy’s confidence in his QB and his own system, the problem is that the coaches’ confidence is not being rewarded by the signal caller. Deep balls are most often first read throws, which further makes this statistic problematic. I don’t anticipate the number on attempts changing much this season, so the accuracy on these throws must be better if the Bears are to return to the playoffs and make a deep run.

True Passer Rating

  • This rating is essentially a QBR without unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Trubisky ranked #26 last season in True Passer Rating – ouch. The vast difference in Trubisky’s QBR (72.8) vs. True Passer Rating (84.3) is mostly related to the amount of passes dropped by his receivers, a number in which the Bear pass catching corps was the 5th best in the league. For years, people would blame Jay Cutler’s lack of success on his lack of talented pass catchers – which was a fair point – the same cannot be said for Mitch.

True Completion Percentage

  • The Bears QB was ranked 25th league-wide with a True Completion Percentage of 68.5%. Much like the True Passer Rating above, this advanced stat shows you just how good the Bears receivers were last year and just where Trubisky really ranked amongst the entire league.

Accuracy Rating

  • This stat grades a QB’s accuracy for each throw on a scale of 1-4. Mitch Trubisky ranked #17 overall in this category with a rating of 2.9. As a reference, a rating above 3.0 is considered highly accurate. As such, this is a very promising number; and one that I think will increase this year based not only on Mitch’s continued improvement, but also the health and improvement of the receiving unit and finally, the addition by subtraction of Jordan Howard.

Using the above mentioned advanced stats, as well as many, many more, two intriguing conclusions have been made:

  1. Mitch Trubisky’s career currently compares most favorably to…wait for it…Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater.
  2. Trubisky’s overall production, based on advanced metrics, places him as the equivalent of a late 4th round draft pick.

In sports, you are who your stats say you are, but I cannot believe there is any way I would want Bridgewater as the quarterback of this team instead of Trubisky. In fact, I wouldn’t even want a healthy 2015 version of Bridgewater over the Bears #10 right now.

Moreover, drafting Trubisky in the late 4th round would be the steal of the 2017 draft and probably most other drafts. Keep in mind that this projection is based only on the previous years’ stats and do not provide a career projection.

After digesting numerous advanced metrics and trying to make sense of it all, I am at the same place I was before I started, I’m just more certain now – Mitch Trubisky’s accuracy will be the key to a successful 2019 season for the Chicago Bears.