Football

Did You Expect Anything Else? Eagles 22, Bears 14

By Brian Schmitz 2276 0

We’ve talked enough about an offense that can’t get out of their own way, so let’s first talk some shit about the way the defense came out today. This is a unit that looked as though they were tired and undisciplined and checked out. If we are being honest, who can blame them? They are on the field ALL the time and they rarely every start drives deep in their opponent’s territory because the offense is fucked. Moreover, the defense isn’t healthy – it’s a perfect storm of moderate shittyness that is becoming more expected than it is maddening.

So, lets unwrap and react to what was a yet another demoralizing loss in a season that has been full of them:

• It’s hard to find new ways to describe the ineffectiveness of the Bears offense at this point, but dammit I am going to try. This team had -1 yard of total offense in the 1st quarter – that pretty much sums up what they were able to accomplish early on. Mitch wasn’t great, but his O-Line is a collection of guys who simply aren’t very good at their job and probably shouldn’t be in the NFL. If you take a QB who isn’t very good, and then give him absolutely no time to throw, the results are inevitable. When the O-Line isn’t holding or false starting, they are getting blown off the ball and giving up pressures at best, and sacks at worst.

• Jordan Howard has always run hard. As I wrote earlier this week, I find it shocking that the Bears couldn’t find a reason to keep him around. Yes, his hands were a liability, but with Tarik Cohen in the backfield, you don’t need Howard catching balls. You need him to run tough and block well – which is exactly what he has done with the Eagles this year. Sunday was vintage Howard; 82 tough yards mostly between the tackles. Nothing overly pretty, but sign me up for 80 and a TD every Sunday.

• Trubisky missed badly on two deep balls; and when I say badly, I mean he missed his receiver by at least 5 yards. If you look around the league, you just don’t see too many QBs missing by that much. Mitch has never been supremely accurate with the long ball, but like many other facets of his game, I am not seeing any improvement.

• Being down 12-0 at the half was astonishingly fortunate for the Bears. Afterall, they had 2 first downs and 9 total yards on 20 offensive plays. Hysterically, they had 1 yard passing. 1. What can you say really? They. Just. Fucking. Suck.

• I will give this team credit for not quitting. That sentence right there is what this season has become. We are giving a team that has Super Bowl aspirations in the off-season credit for not quitting 7.5 games into the season. The Bears offense came out of halftime and competed. They weren’t good enough on either side of the ball on Sunday; but they didn’t shut it down.

• Matt Nagy finally realized his best chance for success it to move Trubisky around the pocket. Part of me feels Nagy was thinking “I’m done protecting this guy, both mentally and physically. If he gets hurt, I have a system-type guy that we step in and make the reads I want.”

• The Bears secondary was good today. Not only in pass coverage, but also in supporting the run. Effort like this from this position group will win you some games. It was their best effort of the season and if you are looking for reasons why the Bears can still make a playoff run, you can win with this group the way they played today.

• NFL games are growing increasingly difficult to watch. With the number of flags, and in turn stoppages, there is no flow to the game. Dick Stockton doesn’t necessarily help the viewer experience either.

• Allen Robinson is the best (only) offensive option on this team, but he was bad today. 2 key drops hurt, but not has bad as his 1 catch, 6-yard performance. Robinson is too good of a teammate to air out his QB or O-Line, but you must think that 1 catch on 6 targets will elicit some major unhappiness this week from the should be Pro Bowler.

• The end of the game should have the end of Adam Shaheen’s career.

In the end, this is a 3-5 team that has lost its way and is showing no signs of getting out of it. The surprisingly talented Detroit Lions come to Soldier Field next week to take on the last place Chicago Bears; let that sentence sink in for a minute.

Football

Nagy and Mitch Suck At Their Jobs, But Ryan Pace May Be Worse Than Both

By Brian Schmitz 1550 0

Here’s some numbers fer ya head:

                       Rush Yards    Yds/Att    TD    Rec    Rec Yds    TD

Player A               443                4.4              5          9            68            1

Player B               366                3.7               3         15           97            0

Player A is one of only three NFL RBs with 3,000+ rushing yards (3,370) since 2016, joining Ezekiel Elliott (4,048) and Todd Gurley (3,441). Howard and Gurley are the only NFL RBs with 9+ rushing TDs in each of the last two seasons.

Ryan Pace thought Player B was the better player and traded Player A for a 6th round draft pick. Moreover, Pace moved up in the draft to select Player B to replace Player A. The cost of doing so was the 87th pick, the 162nd pick, and a 2020 4th round pick.

So, to recap; in its entirety, the swap of Player A for Player B cost the Bears:

  • Player A
  • 2020 6th Round Pick
  • 2020 4th Round Pick
  • 2019 3rd Round Pick
  • 2019 87th Pick
  • 2019 162nd Pick

Player A = Jordan Howard.

Player B = David Montgomery.

Now, don’t get me wrong, David Montgomery is doing a nice job for the Bears as a lead back with a shitty offensive line. He has a very bright future, but the fact is, SO FAR this season, he simply hasn’t been as good as the Eagles Jordan Howard.

But, this really isn’t about Howard or Montgomery. This botched trade (thus far) lies at the feet, yet again, of Ryan Pace. At this point, you have to ask yourself if this job too big for the Bears GM? I think it is. With Pace as the architect, the Bears have a record of 29-34. Over this period, they have had the 2nd, 7th, 8th, 9th, 39th (2), 45th, 51st, 56th, 71st, 72nd, and 73rd picks in the draft. These picks have produced:

  • Mitch Trubisky – Ouch.
  • Kevin White – LOL. Out of football.
  • Roquan Smith – Struggling with something more than just football.
  • Leonard Floyd – Soft. Can’t put up real numbers playing opposite K.Mack.
  • Eddie Goldman – Great rookie year, not much since.
  • James Daniels – Potential.
  • Adam Shaheen – Beat it.
  • Anthony Miller – Well, we’re waiting.
  • Cody Whitehair – Solid starter on a the worst O-Line in football.
  • Hroniss Grasu – Bozo. Out of football.
  • Jonathan Bullard – Nah. Three career sacks
  • David Montgomery – Bell cow of this crew.

As you can clearly see, Pace’s early round selections have produced very little. I am far more impressed with his free agents signings; which means that someone else drafted and cultivated a player, then Pace was there to hijack him – which makes sense as Pace’s main responsibilities in New Orleans were scouting (and changing Mr. Bensen’s diaper and staying the fuck outta Mickey Loomis’ way). It’s also not that difficult to walk into an organization ran by Loomis and Sean Payton and Drew Brees and succeed. See, the Saints are widely known as having the most well-ran organization in football. The Saints have stayed competitive for a long time even when they are always drafting late in the first round.

Which brings us back to the Bears. Most likely, the Bears will not have a pick near the top of the draft in 2020, which is a good thing, as most of Pace’s limited draft successes have come towards the back end of the draft. At no time should the GM should be allowed to draft a QB, WR, TE, or D-Lineman. This is due only to his incompetency in doing so in every previous year. Pace will not be fired, and the team isn’t going to bring in an experienced talent evaluator who has had success in the draft, so what we will continue to see is the same draft results we have since 2015.

Sweet.

Football

Week 8 – Chargers vs. Bears QB Study: Philip Rivers Likes Two Things; Football &; F***ing

By Brian Schmitz 1548 0

For only the 2nd time this season, the Bears will face a quarterback who can and will beat you on his own. The unathletic, and punchable-faced Philip Rivers, with his 29 children, will waltz in Soldier Field to take on a team that has no idea who they are. The good news for the Bears is that neither do the Chargers. It’s gonna be a real barnburner on the lake my frients!

Not to many QB’s in the history of the league have done what Rivers has done for as long as he has done it. If you can look past the first name Philip being a top-5 worst names of all time, you’ll realize that Uncle Phil Rivers is a generational talent whose career has been overshadowed by names like Rodgers and Brady and Brees. But make no mistake, Rivers belongs in that class. Just because he’s a lunatic and generally unlikeable, doesn’t mean Rivers isn’t one of the greatest to every play the game. Take Rivers’ ALL-TIME statistical rankings for a quick spin:

• Passing Yards – 6th All Time/3rd Active
• TD Passes – 6th/3rd
• Completion % – 7th/4th
• Passer Rating – 10th/7th
• Passes Completed – 7th/4th

While Rivers isn’t the talent he once was, he is still more than capable – as he is currently ranked 4th in passing yards and 10th in TDs this season. Last week against the Titans was vintage Rivers; throwing for 329 yards and two touchdowns while completing 63% of his throws.

So…How Do The Bears Stop CRA (Constant Red Ass)?

Scheming for a Philip Rivers offense is especially difficult because he is so smart, makes accurate throws to all segments of the field, and will attack you at every yardage. Last week’s throw chart looked like a 13-year old’s face; with dots covering the entire landscape:

Stats like you see above can be considered the norm with Rivers, as shown by his 2018 passer rating chart:

Worried yet? Yeah, me too.

So now that we understand that Rivers can make basically every throw on the field, who is getting the rock?

Uber-dependable Keenan Allen is getting the most targets, at 10 a game. But with only 44 receptions on those 70 targets, you would like to see a little more productivity from this pair, especially since Allen is the best route runner in all of football.

Running Back Austin Ekeler, and not Allen, is surprisingly the guy leading the Chargers with 49 receptions. What makes this more impressive is the 49 catches were made on 53 targets. That is the most efficient catch-to-target ratio in the entire league. Ekeler also leads the team in TD catches with four. You won’t see Ekeler with a lot of rushing attempts, due to most LA’s “run” game being quick, short passes into space.

On the opposite side from Allen is WR Mike Williams, a dependable 2nd receiver who has become a big play threat for the Chargers, averaging over 15 yards per catch and 19 catches for 1st downs. Williams probably hasn’t played up to his 7th overall pick expectation at this point in his career, but he will stretch the field and has big play talent.

Rivers’ career safety blanket, future Hall of Famer, Antonio Gates, is no longer in the league, but TE Hunter Henry has found his own niche within the Rivers-led offense. Henry is coming off a 6 reception, 97-yard game and is averaging 14.3 yards per catch, which are Gates-type numbers. Henry will eventually become a top tier TE and he should thank Rivers every day because of it.

So, what does all this BS mean?

It means that the Bears secondary will be facing a quarterback who is far better than almost all the other QB’s they’ve faced this year. For a defense that is suddenly having trouble getting to the QB, Rivers, if given enough time, is a tough matchup. Uncle Phil will take some chances with the ball, but only when he is being pressured and has been knocked around early. The Bears defensive line is the key to this game as their productivity is in direct correlation to the success of the defensive backfield.

In a season where you have no idea what to expect from the Bears on a game by game basis, I think the defense gets after it this week and dominates their way too much needed W.

Bears 13 – Chargers 10

Football

Week #7 – Saints 36, Bears 25: Saint It Ain’t So

By Brian Schmitz 1900 0

This is what I get? Off a bye week. After a loss. This is how you respond. Go ahead and ask yourself; can you remember a worse 3-3 football team? The Bears suck right now, and I don’t envision a scenario where they are going to get any better.

Before you go off on Mitch Trubisky and how he’s a joke of a QB, lets address the running game. A running game that really isn’t a running game. The Bears tried to run the ball seven times. Seven times in an NFL football game. Who in the actual fuck runs the ball seven times in actual NFL football game? Not in a drive, not in a quarter, not in a half, but in a game. What you ask, did the seven rush attempts yield? A grand total of 17 yards. That means 2.4 yard per carry. Not only did Matt Nagy call for seven rush attempts, he asked his lead back and prize draft pick to carry the ball two times. Again. TWO times. There is not a quarterback alive that can expect to see any sort of open passing lanes when the threat of a run is non-existent. It’s tee off time, 1-Mississippi type of rush that the Bears are facing. This is especially dreadful when you have an O-line that can’t block for dick.

When you have a terrible offensive line, you, in turn, have a quarterback who wants/needs to rush everything. This results in first read throws that are hurried, but more importantly, throws that your quarterback is not convinced he should make. Its easy, and borderline lazy, to say that Trubisky put up his respectable numbers when the game was over. But what do you want the guy to do? Stop playing? Start throwing picks? What he showed me is that he wanted to compete. He wasn’t great early, but he didn’t quit. I appreciate his effort and so do his receivers. Probably none more than Tarik Cohen, who played his ass off in route to nine catches. Cohen competed until the end, something you love to see.

Anthony Miller had five catches, but its clear there is a disconnect and unhappiness between him and Trubisky/Nagy. His poor body language was evident late in the game and he simply quit on some routes late in the game. I don’t know what’s going on with this guy, but its time he makes a name for himself on what he’s done instead of what he’s going to do.

I have never been a big Corradelle Patterson guy, but there is no question that he balled out today. Guy was everywhere and made plays in all phases. He’s going to be an Pro-Bowl special teams players and is someone that the young guys on the team can learn from.

Much like this entire Bears team, this defensive unit isn’t as good as we thought they’d be. 36 points allowed to a Saints offense that was without Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara? Get the fuck outta here. Not only did backup running back Latavius Murray run for his second 100 yard game against the Bears in two games, but Michael Thomas caught 9 balls for 131 yards against a Bears secondary that has continued to struggle this season. Saints QB Teddy Bridgewater continued to impress in a reserve role, throwing for 281 yards, but more importantly, only getting sacked one time.

This is going to be a long week for the Bears. Especially so: Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy. Questions are many, answers are few, and we still don’t know who this team is seven weeks into the season.

Football

Saints Spotlight: This Offense Isn’t A Brees (Sorry)

By Brian Schmitz 1301 0

For the 5th time in six weeks, the Bears will face an opposing quarterback whose name doesn’t exactly bring anxiety-ridden nights to DC Chuck Pagano. But don’t sleep my friends; Saints backup QB Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater is more than capable. Yes, that Teddy Bridgewater, he of the knee injury which had teammates throwing up on their cleats, will most likely be the one leading the “Who Dats” into Soldier(s) Field on Sunday afternoon. In case you forgot, or have been paying too much attention to NFL officiating and LeBron James’ foreign policy, Drew Brees–a top-5 NFL QB of all time–injured this thumb five weeks ago. Brees underwent surgery, and does not expect to play this week, which brings us back to Bridgewater.

In relief of Brees, Bridgewater has gone 4-0; completing almost 70% of his passes for 7 TDs, 2 INTs, and a QB Rating of just under 100. What makes his numbers even more impressive is that his October splits are a completion percentage of 71.4%, 5 TDs, 1 INT, and a QBR of 112.4. What these numbers clearly say is that as Bridgewater is getting more comfortable as a starter, he continues to improve. It also doesn’t hurt that he is playing in one of the best systems in the history of the game.

“Hot route. Hot route. I don’t…what is hot route? Would you just go stand on the other side please?”

-John Beckwith & Jeremy Grey, Wedding Crashers

As Bridgewater has become more comfortable, he has gotten away from quick hitters and hot routes and is taking more chances downfield, a staple of a Sean Peyton’s offense. Since replacing Brees mid-game in Week 2, here’s a quick look at TD Teddy’s throws under and over 10 yards:

Week    0-10 Yards           10+ Yards  

2               24                              6

3               22                              5

4               29                              7

5               23                             11

The Saints have the best offensive line in football, so if, and of course it’s a big if, the Saints can protect Bridgewater long enough, look for Peyton to attack  longer targets more often. The Bears drop ends and linebackers are so athletic and do such a great job of zone coverage, teams are often better off attacking a Bears secondary that have been only average this season.

Michael Thomas Is A Great Receiver, And Also Could Be Your Backup Goalie

Between Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn Jr., and Jared Cook, the Saints continue to produce other-worldly pass catching talent. Thomas is getting the lion’s share of the targets, averaging almost nine catches per game for 105 yards and 3 TDs. He currently leads the league in receptions and is second in yards. In his 11-reception, 182-yard, 2-TD performance in Week 5, Thomas lined up everywhere on the field and ran every route in the playbook. His week 5 route chart looks like 1st grader drawing with his toes:

So, what does this mean? Well, it means that in an effort to mix up defensive coverages, Thomas will line-up everywhere and run anywhere – and he’ll do it while getting over 11 targets per game.

When Thomas isn’t lighting you up, Alvin Kamara is a legit threat in the passing game. Kamara is average almost six catches per game for 8.4 yards per catch and 46 receiving yards per game. What makes Kamara so special is his ability to create big plays with his run after catch capabilities, which were very much on display week 3:

How can the Bears slow Kamara down? Well, they may have caught a break this week as Kamara is dealing with lower leg injury and will be limited in practice leading up to Sunday.

Teddy Ginn Jr. and tight end Jared Cook also provide some respectable options in the passing game as both average over 10 yards per catch. Both of these guys will obviously become more involved in the offense if Kamara is limited or cannot go at all.

So, what will the Saints and Bridgewater be able do against the Bears on Sunday?

The answer to this question relies solely on the heath of Alvin Kamara. If Kamara can play, the Bears are in trouble. Mike Thomas is going to have a big day regardless of Kamara’s health, but the difference between your 2nd receiving option being Kamara and being Ginn Jr or Cook is seismic. Bridgewater and the Saints are going to score, not as much as a Drew Brees led offense, but enough to win…but only if Alvin Kamara is healthy and can be Alvin Kamara.

Saints 24 – Bears 16

 

Football

Bears Offensive Rankings Are Offensive

By Brian Schmitz 1389 0

With the first trimester of the season in the rearview, let’s take a look at where the Bears offense if through the first five games. Caution, reader discretion is advised.

Yards Per Game:              Ranked 30th (266 YPG)

This stat is especially alarming because the Bears offense has actually been more effective with their backup quarterback under center. Additionally, the dominating nature of the Bears defense give this offense more time on the field to put up yards – or in the Bears case, not put up yards.

Points Per Game:            Ranked 28th (17.4 PPG)

This is a stat that has plummeted since about the middle of the 2018 season. Three major factors contribute to this: bad quarterback play, bad o-line play, and an offensive playbook that that seems like it has been figured out. It is a chicken or egg scenario: is the system bad because of the players? Or are the players bad because of the system? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I just want it figured out.

Yards Per Play:                  Ranked 30th (4.5 YPP)

This number is easily explainable and falls squarely on the lack of a running game. Consistently being in a 2nd and long position very much limits your playbook. RPO and zone running plays are just not working and I anticipate a change in aspects of this coming out of the bye week.

1st Downs Per Game       Ranked 27th (17.4 1DPG)

What we can deduct from this stat is that Bears are really not a threat on plays 10 yards or longer. A 10-yard play gets you a second set of downs, which in turn, keeps opposing defenses on the field longer, thus equaling a high level of fatigue. When you are averaging only 17 1st downs per game, you are facing a fresh defense on about ½ of your possessions.

3rd Down Percentage     Ranked 23rd (35%)

As we all know, Mitch Trubisky is not an overly accurate passer. So anytime you are facing a 3rd and medium/long, you are looking at routes that are not in Mitch’s 5-yard comfort zone. Add to this a porous line, and you can clearly see why the team struggles to convert 3rd downs.

Penalties                             Ranked 7th Highest (43 Penalties)

Like all coaches, Matt Nagy talks about discipline ad nauseam. And while 43 Penalties are a big number, this is more of an NFL officiating issue than it is a Bears issue. However, don’t take for granted that the Bears O-Line is among the most penalized units in the league. This reasoning behind this is simple: when you are not very good, you get beat, which then makes linemen hold. False starts and delay of games have been minimal, so this is more of talent issue with the linemen than it is an overall team discipline issue.

When looking at these numbers as a whole, the Bears are dreadfully comparable to the Dolphins, Redskins, Jets, and Bengals – four teams that share a combined two wins. And before you speak about the strength of the respective defenses the Bears have faced so far this year, please note keep in mind the only defensive juggernaut this team has faced is the Minnesota Vikings.

Coming off the off week, I am hoping we will see far less RPO and zone runs – the Bears are talented enough in the backfield that getting outside the tackles may be the plan that resurrects this offense. The NFL remains a league in which you have to be successful in the run game to be successful throwing the ball. Very few teams are good enough to be successful being one dimensional; the Bears are not one of them.

My biggest concern is that Matt Nagy is too proud to change his offensive philosophy in the run game and will keep trying to make chicken salad from a chicken shit line. Nagy is a guy who experienced much success and admiration in his rookie year as head coach. How that the sky is falling on him and he is getting figured out, it’s up to him to counter-punch and get this team in the end zone.

**In an effort to give a more accurate picture of the Bears offense, the above-noted rankings were taking prior to this past week’s games.

Football

Week #5 – Bears 21, Raiders 24: Jon Gruden Bitch-Slaps Matt Nagy; Bears Lose To Raiders

By Brian Schmitz 1785 0

What if maybe, just maybe, this Bears team isn’t as good as we thought? Sunday evening in London provided the Bears an opportunity to show the world that they are indeed the Super Bowl contenders that they think they are. Then, unfortunately, the game began and the oft- celebrated Bears team was punched square in the dick. Time, after time, after time. To see an opponent physically dominate the Bears on defense AND offense was a surprising as it was disappointing.

But why were they dominated? The answer is because the more I see this offense, the more I believe that Matt Nagy has been figured out. We’ve blamed Jordan Howard. We’ve blamed Mitch Trubisky. We’ve blamed the O-Line. But really, the blame needs to fall on the shoulders of the guy who is calling the plays. I get it – Nagy is cool. His players like him. He’s great with the media. That’s all great, but it doesn’t mean dick when you can’t score points with any sort of consistency. This loss and this unspectacular season are on Matt Nagy.
Should we really blame Nagy for a team that came out flat, and stayed flat? Probably not, but if you are looking for excuses, you can blame the overseas travel, the late week arrival in London, and of course, a plethora of injuries to key players. However, any or all these excuses should not have resulted in the type of ass kicking that Raiders orchestrated. Don’t kid yourself, the Raiders were the better team today and if not for some hideous turnovers by Derek Carr, the Bears very well could have been shut out.

Where did it all go wrong? It started early folks. The entire first half had the look of the Raiders playing the role of the Chicago Bears. They pressured Chase Daniel on almost every drop back and parlayed that with an epic run defense that held the Bears to a grand total of 16 rushing yards. The 17-0 first half whitewash could and should have been even worse had Richie Cognito, who is a certifiable crazy person, not committed a questionable personal foul penalty that forced the Raiders out of field goal position. The 1st half numbers tell you all you need to know about how this team started:
Points 0
1st Downs 2
Total Yards 44
Passing Yards 28
Times Sacked 3
Turnovers 1
Rushing Yards 16
Penalties 3
Time of Poss. 10:07

Meanwhile, the defensive unit formerly known as the Bears was not much better, giving up the following:
Points 17
1st Downs 14
Total Yards 208
Passing Yards 109
Times Sacked 0
Turnovers 0
Rushing Yards 99
Penalties 0
Time of Poss. 19:53

The 2nd half afforded the Bears the opportunity to cash in on some nonsensical Derek Carr decisions, but this was a game in which you were never comfortable with the way things were going. Chase Daniel looked like a backup quarterback most of the day, which is troubling since Mitch Trubisky is essentially a glorified backup at this point. Daniel finished 22-30 for 231 and 2/2. On the surface, this isn’t the worst of days. However, both INT’s came at the most inopportune of times and he also had a terribly thrown ball picked off which was negated by a penalty. One positive we can take from Daniel’s performance is that there will not be any talk of a QB controversy this week; so, we have that going for us…which…is nice.

Still, with all the shit we saw from the Bears, this team was still in position to win the game. Late in the 4th quarter, The Raiders would have to go 97 yards to score a touchdown and win. 97 yards against the leagues best defense? Not happening right? Well, you know what happened. The Bears forced a punt, but where called for running into the punter. Then they give up a fake punt for a 1st down. Then Derek Carr put on his big boy pants, made some great throws, spread the ball around to 5 different receivers, and delivered the most impressive drive a Bears opponent has had all season. Touchdown Raiders. Game. Over.

Where does this leave us heading into the Saints game in 2 weeks? Well, we are looking at a Bears team who is lucky to be 3-2 and very likely could or should be 1-4. It would be a damn shame to waste this generationally talented Bears defense on a team that can’t score points with any consistency. I am afraid that is what we are going to continue to see from this team moving forward this season.

Football

A Very Average Carr

By Brian Schmitz 1616 0

When the Bears face the Raiders this Sunday from Tootenham Hotspur Stadium in London, UK, Derek Carr will be under center for the Raiders. This can be considered a good thing for the Bears as Carr has struggled to recapture the success he had in his Pro Bowl seasons from 2015-2017. Now, much of the decline in productivity can be blamed on the organization he plays for as well as his supporting cast. Which are both a bag of dicks. But throwing for 19 TDs in 16 starts last season is indefensible and general really piss poor.

Through four games this year, Derek Carr has put up numbers that are very much consistent with his career stats:

2019:

  • 72.1 Completion %
  • 222 Passing Yards Per Game
  • 6 TDs
  • 3 INTs
  • 96.7 Passer Rating

Career (82 Games)

  • 63.2 Completion %
  • 234 Passing Yards Per Game
  • 128 TDs
  • 57 INTs
  • 89.2 Passer Rating

What really stands out is Carr’s 72.1% Completion Percentage this season, good for 9th best league-wide and higher than some rando’s named: Mahomes, Watson, Phillip Rivers and Ryan.

Last week against the Colts, Carr threw 31 passes. Unbelievably, only four of the 31 attempts went to the right side of the field:

I have never seen a throw chart even come close to looking like this; and to make this whole thing even more confusing, two of four right side attempts went for touchdowns. What in the fuck were Derek Carr and Jon Gruden doing last week?

Now let’s take this whole thing another odd step forward and show you that, last season, Carr was decidedly better on throws to the right side of the field:

Looking at this chart, Bears safeties should and will be cheating towards the middle of the field and right side all game as Carr is clearly garbage throwing to the left side on anything past 10 yards.

With Amari Cooper Gone, Who Can Catch The Rock?

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense relies heavily on the tight end position in the passing game. Darren Waller has been an absolute beast so far this season, and although he has yet to catch a TD pass, he leads the league in receptions, is 3rd in yards, and 2nd in passes caught for a 1st down. If Carr can get Waller matched up against a Bears linebacker from time to time, he may be able to have a big day in London.

Carr’s other option in the passing game is 5th year veteran Tyrell Williams, who has scored a touchdown in every game this season.  Williams is averaging almost 13 yards per catch with a long of 43 yards. If any of the Raiders pass catchers are going to break a long one, look for it to be Williams.

Don’t expect a lot of catches out of the Raiders backfield. Although Josh Jacobs gets a lion’s share of the carries, he has 3 receptions on the year. Jalen Richard has become more of the 3rd down pass catching threat, and has accumulated 6 catches so far, leading all Raiders running backs.

So What Does All This Mean?

Ultimately, the Bears defense and not Derek Carr is going to be the deciding factor as to whether Carr has a big game. I expect Darren Waller to be heavily involved on quick strike passing game as Jon Gruden will not allow Khalil Mack to become an even bigger story. Game tape from the last four weeks will clearly show that you cannot and will not beat the Bears if your QB is taking 5&7 step drops and trying to sit in the pocket and attack with long balls down the field.

Football

Bears 16 – Vikings 6 – Chase Daniel(s) Gets It

By Brian Schmitz 1487 0

What surprised you more? How well Chase Daniel played, or, how bad the Minnesota Vikings are?

The answer to the first question is obvious. Chase Daniel is a serviceable NFL backup who a.) knows his own limitations, b.) plays within himself, and c.) excels in a system that favors a quick hitting, short yardage passing game over a five- or seven-step drop progression driven scheme that looks for the big play. Daniel finished his day 22-30 for 195 and one TD. Of the eight incompletions, there were four drops, which obviously makes his accuracy all the more impressive. To step in cold and operate the offense arguably better than the starter is a tribute to Daniel’s practice habits and knowledge of the offensive system. Given the investment the organization has in Mitch Trubisky, I don’t envision a quarterback controversy. However, it seems pretty clear that Matt Nagy trusts Daniel and feels more than comfortable with him running the offense.

The answer to the second part of the question above is far more difficult to answer. The Vikings prized run-game finished with 40 yards on 16 carries while the NFL’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook accounted for 35 of those yards on 14 carries. The Bears knew Kirk Cousins wasn’t going to beat them, so they tee’d off on stopping the run and did just that. Cousins finished the game with a respectable 27/36 for 233 yards. These numbers are actually more impressive than they looked as Cosuins was dodging a legit Bears pass rush all day. Cousins was sacked six times and was under intense pressure on almost every five-step drop he took. The Vikings defense yielded only 269 total yards, which wins most Sundays – except when you are going up against the generationally talented defense that is the Bears outfit.

The one player who will benefit more than anyone else by having Daniel under center is Javon Wims. Wims grabbed four balls on five targets, including the Bears longest pass play of the season, a 37-yard connection down the right sideline. Daniel and Wims developed their familiarity with each other by taking second team reps in practice as well as running some scout team offense together. A potential Wims emergence would be extremely valuable to an offense that is struggling to find a #2 receiver behind Allen Robinson.

This brings to mind my weekly mention of Anthony Miller. Miller had two catches on Sunday for 11 yards. – this is same number of catches that the ghost of Adam Shaheen had. I am at a loss when trying to figure out why Miller continues to be a non-factor in this offense. Could we have been wrong about him and his potential? Is he still not healthy? I don’t know these answers, but if Miller continues to disappear, this offense will not be able to sustain any sort of consistency.

Speaking of consistency, for the 4th time in as many games, the run game was atrocious. Nagy made a concerted effort to get David Montgomery the rock. However, 21 touches for 53 yards with a long of seven yards are not what we are looking for from a lead back. I respect and endorse a commitment to the run, but with this O-Line, I’m sure we are not going to see Montgomery in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.

While Montgomery struggled, Tarik Cohen made the most of his seven total touches, highlighted by a 10-yard catch and run for a touchdown. Cohen had a chance for a huge day, but bobbled a perfectly thrown Chase Daniel throw down the sideline which would have resulted in a huge gain and more points on the board.

We are getting force fed Cordarrelle Patterson in the run game. I get it, it’s Matt Nagy being cute. But it continues to produce absolutely nothing. Patterson is a return specialist at this point in his career, except he’s not that good in that phase anymore. Tarik Cohen needs to be taking the backfield reps that Patterson is currently getting, and if that doesn’t happen, getting Anthony Miller more involved this way is an option that needs to be explored.

Next week, the Bears take to the pitch of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to face the Oakland/Los Angeles/Las Vegas Raiders. There is no reason we can’t expect more of the same from the Bears defense, but what will we see from Chase Daniel, who will be working with the 1’s all week in practice. Another strong Daniel outing and Chicago may just have a QB controversy on their hands.

Football

Kirk Cousins = Jay Cutler. Both Are Better Than Mitch Trubisky

By Brian Schmitz 2357 0

For the 3rd week in a row, your Chicago Bears will face a quarterback that doesn’t necessarily inspire fear in opposing defensive coordinators. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has long been considered one of leagues biggest question marks. Dating back to 2015, you never knew what to expect from Cousins on a game to game basis. His career record (36-38-2) and stats compare very close to everyone’s favorite E! realty star, Bruce Jenner Jay Cutler Cavalerri. So far this season, Cousins is doing what Cousins does; which is managing games, completing a great percentage of his passes, and staying healthy. On the other hand, he is turning the ball over far too much in addition to not throwing for big yards (98 yards Week 1). The latter two reasons as somewhat surprising because Cousins was very good last year, and I thought he was poised for an even bigger year this time around. Cousins’ very respectable 2018 stats are the type of numbers that Bears fans would cream themselves for:

• QBR 100.9
• Comp % 70.7%
• Yards 4,166
• TD/Int 29/10

To take this a step further, last season, Cousins was at the league average or above in 11 of 12 passer rating yardages, including a ridiculous 139.2 rating on passes over 20 yards to the right side. If the Vikings run game gets stuffed early, look for him to attack this area on Sunday:

Now that you’ve seen how good Kirk Cousins can be and why the Vikings paid him $84M over three years, let’s dive deeper into his play this season, which could generously be described as a shit-show. Take a quick look at his current 2019 numbers when projected over the entire season:

• Comp % 58.7%
• Yards 2,677
• TD/Int 16/11

Additionally, Cousins has put the ball on the carpet four times thus far this season. Now, I am not a quarterback coach or a GM or a team president, but even I know that fumbling the ball 1.3 times per game isn’t going to make too many people in the Vikings organization happy when you are making $28M per season (AAV) or $1.75M per game.

One would think that Cousins’ numbers will continue to trend downward when he faces the Bears, but don’t be so sure. The Bears are ranked in the middle of the pack in passing yards against with just over 245 yards per game. Keep in mind that of the 735 total yards given up in the passing game, 532 of those yards came against two guys named Joe Flacco and Case Keenum – that’s not exactly the ’27 Yankees of quarterback talent right there. On Sunday, I fully expect the Bears to limit the Vikings running game, which may open up some chances for Cousins to hit on some one-on-ones down the field – if he has time. If.

Where Will Cousins Attack the Bears?
I once had a good buddy who would call the “Bears” “Beers”, like, “Hey dude, how annoying are the ’85 Beers?” I’m not sure what this has to do with anything but I just thought of it, so….Any who, like the Bush family, Cousins has made a living on the right side this season, throwing the ball to left only 18 times as opposed to 33 throws to the right. Don’t be surprised if you see Eddie Jackson and Prince Amukamara solely on that side of the field.

And With What Soldiers Will He Attack?
The Vikings have one of the more talented receiving corps in the league; they just don’t have the quarterback to get them the ball on a consistent basis. Adam Thielen is Cousins favorite target, but don’t sleep on Stefon Diggs. Both guys are averaging over 15 yards per catch and have game breaking speed; if Cousins is to have a big day, one or both guys will have to get off.
Outside of the wide receivers, Cousins looks to Dalvin Cook often; in fact, more than TE Kyle Rudolph at this point in the season. Cook has nine catches for 79 yards thus far and has earned the trust of Cousins to the point that he is getting the second most targets on the team. With the amount of attention that will be paid to Cook in the running game, don’t be surprised to see him on more than one chip screens.

So, What Does All This Mean?
As I said, the Bears will make stopping the run game priority #1. This will give Cousins the opportunity to take a few shots downfield and ultimately, become the reason why the Vikings win or lose.

Vikings 14. Bears 6