Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Reds: Joey’s Not Angry Any More

By Sam Fels 1280 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 24-14   Reds 18-23

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 5:40pm

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THEY ACTUALLY EAT THAT CHILI: Blog Red Machine

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Tanner Roark

Yu Darvish vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Jason Heyward – CF

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

David Bote – 3B

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Jesse Winker – LF

Yasiel Puig – RF

Derek Dietrich – 2B

Jose Iglesias – SS

Pitcher

Tucker Barnhardt – C

 

After swatting away their closest competitor over the weekend, the Cubs head to the bouncy castle that The Great American Ballpark is to face the NL Central’s wooden-spooners. But this isn’t the normal Reds team you might be accustomed to, and you might not need to prep for the normal diet of 12-10 games that we got on the reg on the river in the past.

For one, the Reds can’t hit for shit, and the main story is that Joey Votto has been a baseball succubus. It’s almost inexplicable. Votto is hitting .206 with a .293 wOBA and a 79 wRC+. He’s walking less than he ever has and striking out more. More worryingly is his line-drive rates and hard-contact are down as well. He’s actually hitting infield pop-ups, which he literally never did before. Judging by his anemic numbers against change-ups and curves, one might get the impression he’s cheating more and more on fastballs at 35. But he’s not even doing that much with those. He could be carrying an injury, and Reds fans are going to have to hope so because he only has 74 more years left on his contract. Still, this is Joey Votto. He’s only a season removed from a 131 wRC+ and two from a 164. You’re going to have to show us more than just six weeks of bad Votto before we believe Votto is bad now.

It wouldn’t be so glaring if the Reds were getting any help from anywhere else, but only Derek Dietrich and Cubs-murderer Eugenio Suarez have bothered to remember to take a bat with them to the plate. Yasiel Puig, who we were all convinced would show up in the NL Central and torture us for a good few years because of course, has been eaten by the BABIP Dragon and is hitting .226. Jesse Winker has been ok, but only that. They were never getting much offense out of short or catcher, and it’s caught up to them. They’ve gotten prime prospect Nick Senzel into center for now, but he’s still got a huge learning curve to manage. They are decidedly pop-gun.

The Reds would be total shit (and then spread on spaghetti as is their way there) if they’re rotation hadn’t been glittering so far, but lucky for them that part of the machine has kept them within touching distance of .500. Luis Castillo, whom the Cubs get on Thursday, has been everything they could have hoped. When you’re striking out 31% of the hitters you see and getting nearly 60% grounders on the contact you do give up, you’re going to slap some motherfuckers upside the head. So has been the tale. Sonny Gray was perhaps just happy to get out of New York, as in terms of FIP he’s been just as good as Castillo. He’s getting far more grounders than he did in pinstripes, and hasn’t seen every fly ball he gives up land in Vinny from Queens’s beer hey yo. Gray has also gone to a cutter far more often this season with his top class curve. Tyler Mahle doesn’t walk anyone, Tanner Roark does but somehow dances around it, and Anthon DeSclafani is striking everyone out. This is not an easy negotiation.

In the pen, Raisel Iglesias hasn’t been terribly happy with his usage, but is still striking out a ton of hitters though been a bit homer-happy. You’re probably not maximizing Iglesias by not using him in something of a Hader-method as they have before, as he’s been a straight closer so far. Amir Garrett and David Hernandez have been heavy K/heavy walk style as well, but have barely given up anything. The uber-jacked Michael Lorenzen and his tight pants are still here as well. The pitching has saved the Reds and if they ever discover someone else who can actually not pass out at bat they could make a serious move in the division. They’re not ready to contend yet, but you can see where they will be one day soon.

For the Cubs, they’ll hope Anthony Rizzo‘s one-day backiotomy is just that. They’ll try and get Darvish to throw strikes against a team that can’t hit, but that didn’t work last time. Getting though on Gray and Castillo the last two games here is going to be a real trick, but that’s what’s ordered.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Three Of Four From Marlins: Fish In A Barrel

By Sam Fels 1307 0

Game 1 Box Score: Marlins 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 5, Marlins 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 3, Marlins 2 (11)

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 4, Marlins 1

If I were truly miserable and wanting to pawn that off on the rest of the world to dissipate my pain, I would complain about the Cubs not sweeping this sad sack outfit. But hey, they’ve gone 6-1 against this excuse to siphon public funds, and after sweeping the Cardinals you’re probably allowed one hiccup. 6-1 on the homestand will definitely play. Let’s wrap it up.

The Two Obs

-There is some worry right at the top. Pedro Strop’s injury, which is going to take a few weeks, leaves the Cubs even more shorthanded in the pen. It also leaves them without a for-sure strikeout option. Don’t worry about not having a closer, as the Cubs can finally just match it up in the late innings which they should have been doing anyway. But unless Carl Edwards Jr. finds it, there is no one out of the pen who can get through an inning without any contact. The Cubs have survived the past two games, and a big thank you to Mike Montgomery, but this is a AAA lineup they were facing at best. There are much bigger challenges and outs to get coming, and the Cubs have no sure thing to get them right now. And the answers to those are probably as far away as Strop’s recovery. Teams don’t make trades in May, but the Cubs might have to find a way.

-Secondly, this is Strop’s second hammy injury in two seasons, and you have to be a touch worried this is just going to be a thing that keeps happening. And he’s as close to indispensable as they have.

-Anyway, good thing Kris Bryant has gone plaid lately, because some of the other pistons in the offensive engine have gone…well, whatever pistons go that’s bad. I’m not a car guy. Bote is hitting .196 the last two weeks. Schwarber has one extra-base hit in a week. Heyward is 2-for-his-last-24. But hey, this is how it’s supposed to go. One part goes down, the other goes up. Hey, that’s kind of like pistons!

-They’re going to have to lower beer prices at Wrigley when Yu Darvish pitches. I can’t afford to drink at that pace. It’s the same thing we’ve talked about before, where he’s trying to be too perfect and is afraid of any contact on his pitches. He had a plethora of hitters down 0-2 or 1-2 but wouldn’t come anywhere near the plate. This isn’t about injury. Darvish has come back from a long absence before. It’s not about ability, because he’s never been this wild before. It’s in his head. But they’re still winning his starts, and winning around them, and have bought him time to figure it out. The Cubs haven’t needed him yet. They will though.

-But Montgomery gives them some options. So does Chatwood. They may have to keep one always in reserve to piggyback on Darvish. But this would be the way to mask your holes in the pen, wouldn’t it? Just have Chatwood or Monty throw a couple or three innings and keeping everyone else to a couple innings a week? That’s a solution. It’s worth trying I think.

-The Brewers have moved into second place. They move in here tomorrow. Maybe time to stamp some authority on this bitch.

 

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Cardinals: Everybody Shut The Fuck Up

By Sam Fels 2425 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 4, Cardinals 0

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Cardinals 5

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 13, Cardinals 5

Let’s get it right at the top here. Back in first place. Best winning percentage in the NL. Best run-differential in baseball. Won seven in a row. 16 of 20. It was utterly pointless to be trying to tear your heart out of your chest with your fingernail after nine games. Everyone has a bad nine games. Fuck, everyone has a bad 20 games. I understand the microscope is more focused at the start of a season. I understand it was an unpleasant winter and everyone already had the knives out and wanted to be the first to say, “I told you so.”

But it was always a good offense. Possibly great. It was always potentially a really good rotation, and one that survived an IL stint to Jon Lester. You have those two things, the pen doesn’t matter as much. The Cubs have six players with a wRC+ of 115 or higher. The only regulars who aren’t there are Schwarber, Zobrist and Descalso. And Schwarber’s is 129 over the past two weeks.

So yeah, I don’t want to hear it. This is a really good team, a team that is essentially the one that won 95 games last year and gets to use Yu Darvish and a healthy Kris Bryant. It’s been even able to carry a struggling Zobrist. They’re really good. Everyone on board.

Let’s do the thing:

The Two Obs

-I find it funny that it took Hendricks and Contreras about an inning or two to figure out that the Cardinals were trying to jump on The Cerebral Assassin early in at-bats, proceeded to cut through them like a daisy cutter, and yet the Cardinals never bothered to try anything else. Hendricks threw seven pitches in the 7th. Nine in the 8th. 10 in the 9th. Good thing they hired Shildt full-time, huh?

-Saturday, the right decision was definitely to walk Schwarber to get to Taylor Davis. That doesn’t mean Michael Wacha had to throw him a batting practice fastball that any competent profession baseball player is going to hurt. I thought the Cardinals were smart?

-Yu Darvish is Javy Vasquez. If you remember Little Game Javy, as Yankees fans so lovingly referred to him as, he had five or six different pitches, all of them effective. But it Javy’s world, and apparently Yu’s, no one should make contact on him. Which means he pitches that way, which means he misses, which means walks, which means problems. Until Yu starts pitching to contact and taking the strikeouts when they’re there, this is what you’re gong to get. He’s never had great control, but it’s within him, he simply chooses not to. Remember, before he got to Chicago the previous two seasons saw him carry a BB/9 under three. He’s at 7.44 this year. It has to stop.

-I don’t really care how the Cubs pen does it, but they’ve been among the best in baseball since the first week. And I don’t care. It’s a bullpen, it doesn’t have to make sense.

-This is the rotation the Cardinals are going to take us down with? Ok.

-Quintana wasn’t as vintage as he’s been this year, but he was able to muscle through it which is a really good sign. Also helps that the Cubs catch everything and play defense all over the field.

-Between Bryant, Heyward, and Baez, Cardinals fans aren’t going to know who to boo when the Cubs go down there later this month. And I’m fine with a team of villains.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Win Two Of Three From The Diamondbacks: It Still Points, Doesn’t It?

By Sam Fels 1305 0

Game 1 Box Score: D-Backs 8, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 9, D-Backs 1

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, D-Backs 5

While I can always find a level to enjoy #WeirdBaseball when we wade deep into the extra innings, there’s something always infuriating about it as well. Because chances are when you get to a 14th or 15th inning, chances are you’ve had opportunities to win it and/or have made some mistakes to get it there and possibly blow it. But with a day off tomorrow, and yet another series win, we’ll let this one go.

Let’s clean it all up:

The Two Obs

-The series started with Kyle Hendricks being kindling again, after a great start against these same Diamondbacks a week ago. The problems for Hendricks when he’s getting bounced around are always the same; he’s catching too much of the plate. That’s only one good start of The Cerebral Assassin, and I guess it’s somewhat fair to wonder if that new extension isn’t weighing on him a bit. It would only be natural, as along with the security is a feeling of having to perform at a different level. I still have no doubts he’ll get to where he’s been, it’s just not comfortable right now.

-On the other side of the spectrum, Jose Quintana continues to light it up. He made two bad pitches today that were thoroughly punished, but other than that he was barely touched. That change is getting used more and more, 15 times today, which is only making his other two pitches pop more. Here for it.

-And in the middle was Yu..I guess he was stuck there, huh? The first two or three innings on Saturday were painful, and it was hard to escape the feeling that Darvish, even with as good as his stuff is, is afraid of contact. Which means he’s nibbling, or losing control altogether. Then the Cubs got him some runs, and he wasn’t afraid to go at hitters. What you get is six shutout innings. With two off-days next the 110 pitches aren’t a big deal, as he won’t throw again until Saturday. Hopefully this is the start of something.

–Kris Bryant was making loud contact all over the place. That could signal big things.

-I was bitching on Saturday about Almora having to sit after a four-hit night on Friday, but I had forgotten that a change that the Cubs and Joe Maddon had made this season was planning out their lineup for the whole series in advance. I don’t mind them not deviating from it, and I would guess Almora is getting more starts in Seattle and when they return home. Adding two hits today wouldn’t hurt his cause.

-So Ben Zobrist has an extra-base hit now. That’s good. He’s doing something weird with his stance, and there’s still a huge drop in how hard he’s hitting the ball from last year to this. But he seems to recognize that if he’s volunteering Bote to be in the lineup ahead of him. That said, Bote then went ahead and left seven on today. No good deed goes unpunished.

-That was eight shutout-innings from the pen until Kyle Ryan got a little goofy. My hopes for Dillon Maples are still on very shaky ground. When you need Tyler Chatwood to save you…

Onwards…

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From D-Backs: Approaching Suck

By Sam Fels 1251 0

That’s a touch harsh. The Cubs have been playing much better at least since the Pirates were here, though it hasn’t always felt like it. There’s a frustration they didn’t sweep this series as they did the Marlins, but despite Zack Greinke‘s ballooned ERA and HR/FB rates he’s still Zack Greinke and sometimes he’s gonna put it on ya. Robbie Ray should have been easier fodder, but the Cubs got there in the end no matter how uncomfortable it might have been. Which is good, because the fireworks show that is the Dodgers roll in here, and if you were watching the Cubs’ pen through your eyes before, just wait for that Kyle Ryan–Cody Bellinger matchup in the 7th..,.

Let us away…

The Two Obs

-Good Tyler Chatwood starts are in some ways even more infuriating than bad ones. Anyone who says they can’t understand why the Cubs signed Chatwood is just being willfully ignorant, an asshole, or both. It’s clear what caused the brass to play a hunch. He was easy 94-95 today, that two-seam was boring in on righties and everything had sink. Nine groundouts of his 18 outs, and a couple double-plays after walks that had the Wrigley faithful groaning (probably a touch unfairly). One start does not a revival make, but this is what the Cubs thought they were getting. If Chatwood can keep this going, there are some really creative possibilities going forward. But we’ll have to wait on that. At least Lester’s return isn’t as desperate as it might have been yesterday.

-On the other side, I can’t imagine the Cubs are ok with Yu Darvish throwing just two pitches. And if they are, it would be strange. According to the charts, it says Darvish deviated between his cutter and his fastball, but they look awfully similar. He’s only combining that with his slider, which he only occasionally choking back to make into a curve. His splitter has disappeared. And when he can’t locate his fastball, which he hasn’t really all year, there’s nowhere for him to go. He still held the Cubs in but he’s capable of so much more of a repertoire.

–David Bote got the game-winner today off of a breaking pitch. Wonders never cease.

-We’ll have to do a deep dive on Kris Bryant this week, because I’m struggling to remember when he’s strung hard-hit balls together.

–Anthony Rizzo had two hits and he’s still got an unsightly average, and on the broadcast even Jim Deshaies was compelled to mention his BABIP. But his line-drive rate is down, though his hard-contact rate is up. He’s also going the opposite way far more, perhaps sick of the sight of the shift gobbling up anything he has to offer. Maybe April just isn’t his thing.

-So much for worrying about Kyle Hendricks. And so much for him trying to integrate a curve. Maybe later, Cerebral Assassin.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Stomp Some Guys: I See Your Sister In A Sunday Dress

By Sam Fels 1253 0

Game 1 Boxscore: Cubs 7 – Marlins 2 

Game 2 Boxscore: Cubs 4 – Marlins 0

Game 3 Boxscore: Cubs 6 – Marlins 0

I suppose, if I were just taking the Cubs words at face value, the last game of this series would be the kind of one they referenced at the end of last year or in spring training this year as the ones that got away from them last season. Where they lost focus or didn’t quite close out the past couple seasons like they did in 2016. They’ve said it, but I’m not sure how much I buy it when you put together 95 wins with a banged-up roster. But whatever, if they say it they probably believe it to an extent. So the Cubs didn’t let up, didn’t check out against a team full of future gym teachers and possibly current squeegee-men. Cole Hamels certainly wasn’t in any giving mood, and the Cubs have their first series sweep of the year and are looking at being .500 with a series win against Arizona.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-These are the kinds of trips through the rotation that the Cubs envisioned when this all started. Darvish still couldn’t quite there, as it should not take 96 pitches to get 17 outs against whatever is masquerading around as Marlins these days. But hey, it was only two runs. I don’t think I’m a big fan of him talking about maxing his velocity when he’s coming off an arm injury and what makes him special is the diversity of his pitches, but at this point I think we’re all just going to take the ride with him and be done with it.

-No such problems with Quintana and Hamels, who are as dialed in as it gets. Q spotted that change-up he’s been saying he wants to use more, though not as much as he probably will in the future. Hamels, being the savvy vet that he is, knew he could just pour everything into the strike zone and are this collection of extras to do their worst. Winner winner chicken dinner.

-The Cubs still haven’t gotten anything out of Bryant and Rizzo and are second in the NL in runs. Tell me why you’re paranoid again?

-While his signing was derided simply because it was the only one the Cubs made for the lineup this winter, Daniel Descalso is hell of an upgrade on Tommy La Stella so far. In fact, even if Ian Happ were to get hot I can’t quite figure out where he’d go right now anyway. And no, I don’t want to see him in center or right. Which means, as we thought all along, it might come down to a debate between him and Schwarber in left. But that’s not a problem for now.

-Contreras only had one hit today. What a bum.

-Please don’t make me start believing in David Bote. I’ve been here too many times.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Series Preview – Cubs at Marlins: Where Jeter Hates Fun

By Sam Fels 1111 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 5-9   Marlins 4-12

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 6:10

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

WELCOME TO MIAMI: Fish Stripes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Yu Darvish vs. Trevor Richards

Jose Quintan vs. Pablo Lopez

Cole Hamels vs. Sandy Alcantara

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Ben Zobrist – RF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – CF

Willson Contreras – C

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Daniel Descalso – 2B

 

PROBABLE MARLINS LINEUP

Curtis Granderson – LF

Brian Anderson – 3B

Neil Walker – 1B

Starlin Castro – 2B

Jorge Alfaro – C

Miguel Rojas – SS

Lewis Brinson – CF

Austin Dean – RF

 

Nothing like a sojourn down to the former Orange Bowl for a team to get healthy. Or to escape the snow. Or both, and hopefully it’s both for the Cubs.

They’ve caught a break in that even the gods didn’t want to see a Tyler Chatwood so badly they provided Chicago with a blizzard in the middle of April, which is a choice. Seems a touch exuberant on their part, but you understand the emotion. Because of that, the Cubs can stick with a four-man rotation thanks to off-days for the next two weeks, not bringing Jon Lester back until the 27th or so if they so choose. Which would give him nearly a full two weeks of recovery. Although they have two off-days on either side of a trip to Seattle, so they could hold their nose, close their eyes, and plunge into a singular Chatwood start and give Lester yet another week. Questions for down the road.

The only other questions are just lineup rotation. Will Albert Almora Jr. get to show off his hitting-grounders skills in his hometown? Or is the shifting of Heyward into center just something we’re going to have to get used to? Is Kyle Schwarber’s recent slump just a bad week or his inability to recognize breaking pitches going to raise Almora back into the lineup, with Zobrist shifting over to left? Didn’t Kris Bryant used to play outfield? Why is that a thing that doesn’t happen anymore to give Bote more looks? Does Bote need more looks? I don’t even know anymore.

The other boon of playing the Marlins is that you can declare the bullpen officially a Hazmat site if they can’t get the Marlins out. There’s no one here, so if they still refuse to puncture the strike zone, you can leave the lot of them down there and return to Chicago with a fresh batch. Darvish, Quintana, and Hamels will all seek to build on good starts (to varying degrees) against a lineup that were all paid $20 on the corner to come pose as MLB players for a few days while Derek Jeter steals more stadium cash.

And that’s really the story with the Marlins, a chance for Derek Jeter to do Yankees cosplay where it’s warmer and no one cares. They’re supposedly in a rebuild, which they’ve been in for at least 15 years and started when they had the best young outfield in the game (Ozuna, Yelich, Stanton) and traded it because…they felt like it? It was never quite clear. Of those trades, only Lewis Brinson is in the every day lineup and he’s striking out a third of the time and when he’s not doing that the contact he makes is more of a timid question. The only player hitting anything you would want to hide behind several curtains is Jorge Alfaro, who was once traded for Cole Hamels and more recently was part of the J.T. Realmuto deal. Miguel Rojas is literally the only other regular hitting over .230. If Darvish gets nibbly with this lot…

The rotation shows a little more promise. Pablo Lopez has nearly a 10-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Sandy Alcantara’s high groundball ways are paying off. Both have been let down by the Marlins tendency to play defense like it was jai alai (local joke!). Trevor Richards has a plus-change-up but that’s about it, and is currently riding an incredible save of luck by seeing a .209 BABIP against while stranding nearly 90% of the runners he lets on. The crash is going to be hard on this one. The pen has been extremely walk-heavy, and basically if Sergio Romo and his walker are in your bullpen, you know you suck. But hey, he’ll come in and frisbee up some sliders for you. You wouldn’t know these guys if they came into your house and shit on your floor, which isn’t a bad representation of what they’ll be doing out of the pen soon enough.

It’s baseball, so you can never say the Cubs should win all three games. But the Cubs should win all three games, and then get just as healthy agains the strip-mined Diamondbacks and Bob Brenly and his less and less veiled racism show up for the weekend.

 

Baseball

Eloy Is Caught In-Between, And Yu Seems To Want To Move There

By Sam Fels 1159 0

I can always tell the mood of Sox fans by the angry texts Fifth Feather sends me. And as I’ve said, I’m only dabbling in Sox writing to annoy the piss out of him. But early in the season, he’s decided to get worked up about Eloy Jimenez. Certainly a 79 wRC+ or 83 DRC+, whichever nerd counter you prefer, is not what he or anyone had envisioned. And for Sox fans, wanting to make Cubs fans ache even more immediately is always a burning desire. Patience gets thinner when that’s an element.

More worrying is that Jimenez is making some pretty awful contact. Half of it has been on the ground, and only 13.8% of his contact has been hard. It would be one thing if he was unlucky and getting nipped and bitten by the BABIP Dragon. That is not the case so far.

It’s not hard to see what’s happening. Eloy is swinging a lot (50.6% of pitches, 45% is average), swinging a lot at pitches out of the zone 37%, average 29%) and not making contact a whole lot on any pitch (53% outside the zone, 66% overall, both well south of average). And it’s a classic combination that pitchers are using to attack him.

Here’s where Eloy is whiffing at fastballs:

And here’s where he’s whiffing on breaking balls:

His whiff percentages are pretty hideous when it comes to sliders and curves, and clearly he’s worried about being beat upstairs by heat that he’s going after everything that looks like it…until it ends up borrowing into the left-handed batters’ box. This is what happens to young hitters. You have to prove you can handle one before you stop seeing the other.

Most will tell you the way out of this is to just use the middle of the field and the opposite way. Give yourself time on the fastball and not be ahead of a breaking ball that way. And the past three games might be glimmers of hope. Monday, Jimenez singled twice up the middle, both on a fastball on a slider. Tuesday, Eloy’s first three ABs all ended in hard contact to either center or right, until he rolled over a single in the 8th. Yesterday saw another single to right.

It’s a process, but as he gets more comfortable I would think you would see louder and louder contact the other way, up the middle. And then he’ll start to swing it around the field, which is when the real fun starts.

-On the other side of town, as we lunge and bend to try and feel good about Yu Darvish starts, there’s been an alarming component of his last two.

Here’s a sample of what he was throwing in the first inning in his start in Atlanta:

Then in the fourth when he was pulled.

We see 93 and 94 turn into 92. Not a huge problem, but after only four innings of work somewhat curious. Let’s go to last night. Here’s Starling Marte‘s first AB:

94 and 95, almost 96 even. Now here’s the 5th, an inning before he was pulled:

91 and 92. That’s an even steeper drop-off. Joe Maddon told everyone after both games that he wanted to get Yu out while he could “feel good.” This ignores the fact that Yu is a living, breathing adult and probably knows exactly how he pitched. Yes, Yu is a thinker, and a quirky guy, and all the rest of it. But I would take some convincing that Joe didn’t see this drop in velocity each time.

Is he trying to burn it out in the early innings? Is he still building up arm-endurance from missing three-quarters of last year? Is the arm injury playing a role? Questions that don’t have answers yet.

Also, Yu is throwing that fastball far more than he has in years past, 47% of the time when for the past six years he’s pitched he’s kept that around 40%. We haven’t seen a sinker at all this season, which he used to throw 15-20% of the time. His curve really is his chocked back slider, but that has less effect when his fastball’s velocity keeps moving down to meet it as the game moves along.

It also seems that his first start has spooked him a bit, because the past two has seen him keep his breaking stuff in the zone a lot more. Which is fine to an extent, but to get whiffs your slider/curve needs to duck out of the zone eventually. His slider produced three whiffs on nine swings, his curve nary a one. Which is actually better than it was in Atlanta, where his slider only got three whiffs on 12 swings.

It’s another process, and I guess it’s trending in the right direction ever so subtly? But he’s going to have to find more gas in the fifth and sixth innings, or you would hope he does.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Braves: There’s Only Been Three Of These

By Sam Fels 1253 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-2   Braves 0-3

GAMETIMES: Monday 6:10, Wednesday and Thursday 6:20

TV: NBCSN+ Chicago Monday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

DIRTY SOUTH TAKE: Talking Chop

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Sean Newcomb

Jon Lester vs. Julio Teheran

Yu Darvish vs. Max Fried

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Albert Almora Jr. (R) CF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Willson Contreras (R) C
6. David Bote (R) 2B
7. Ben Zobrist (S) LF (Schwaber against the righty Teheran)
8. Jason Heyward (L) RF
Probably Braves Lineup
1. Ender Inciarte (L) CF
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
4. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) LF
5. Nick Markakis (L) RF
6. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
7. Brian McCann (L) C
8. Dansby Swanson (R) SS
The apparent circus that the Cubs are going to be all season rolls into the ATL tonight, towing the collective raging angina of the fanbase. Just about everything you didn’t want to see go wrong for the Cubs did in Texas, and that’s going to prevent exactly no one from using two games as a symbol for what the whole season will be and as impetus to demonstrate how outraged they can be. If you’re already tired, I don’t blame you. This season has every chance of being The Unblinking Eye for merely the noise around it, not even what’s happening on the field.
Freshly inked Kyle Hendricks (contract, not tattoos, but wouldn’t that be something?) will make his season debut tonight, and seems to be about the only sure-thing on the Cubs. It might fly in the face of modern pitching thinking, but Hendricks is just going to roll up with those hangdog shoulders, his kid-being-forced-to-eat-vegetables expression, and outthink and out-craft lineups pretty much every start.
Thanks to Jose Quintana‘s rescue of Yu Darvish on Saturday, his first start of the season won’t come until the weekend, so Lester and Darvish will remain on regular rest. Darvish has some work to do to earn trust, where his picky, corner-seeking, possibly afraid-of-contact ways will have to be shelved in order for outs. We already did the Chatwood thing and don’t feel the need to relive it.
And the bullpen…you know what? Let’s just not right now.
To Atlanta, who spent their first weekend of the season getting giggy-stuffed by the Phillies in Philadelphia. Not exactly the time you wanted to catch the Fightin’s, with the whole buzz thing going on there. Anyway, this is their home-opener. Considering the Phillies’ splash, the Nationals signing Corbin and being spurned, and the Mets doing Mets things that always gets amplified, you might have forgotten it was the Braves who won this division last year. And this is still last year’s team with Josh Donaldson added to it, essentially.
What the perpetually red-assed Donaldson is anymore is the question. He has had serious injury problems the past two years, but at least flashed his old self in Cleveland for the season’s last six weeks. Then again, he’s only two years removed from a 5-WAR season in Toronto, and three removed from a 7-WAR one. The calf problems he battled are ones you’d like to think he can get past. It’s the shoulder ones that kept him out of the field for long stretches that are worrisome, and knocked nearly 100 points off his slugging last year.
Still, if they can get 75% of what Donaldson used to be, and add that to Acuna, Albies, and Freeman, that’s a hell of a base. Brian McCann will be around to make sure no one has any fun. Markakis had a career season in his mid-30s, and then fell victim to baseball’s war on money for anyone who doesn’t own a team. Inciarte catches everything.
Maybe it’s the rotation that keeps people from getting back to the Braves as the pick to repeat in the East. It’s a little pedestrian, at least until some kids pop. Sean Newcomb walks too many guys. Mike Foihaldkhalns is battling elbow-twang. Julio Teheran missed his window on being something other than “a guy.” Kyle Wright, and especially Bryse Wilson and Touki Toussaint are the hopes to come up and make it something more.
The pen is also looking more functional than inspirational, with near-Cub Arodys Vizcaino the closer and Chad Sobotka, Jonny Venters and his arm made of puddy at this point, and Not Rocky Biddle forming the hub of it. Again, the kids could be used here later in the year to give it more muscle. Max Fried, who starts the last game, could be someone who does that as well.
The Cubs could use some easy wins after the past two games. Sadly, the Braves aren’t pushovers. Your fatigue will probably last.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rangers: When A Team Runs In Circles, It’s A Maddon World

By Sam Fels 1283 0

vs.

DATES & TIMES: Thursday 3:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 3:05

TV: WGN Thursday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

NILL ESCAPEES: Lone Star Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jon Lester vs. Mike Minor

Yu Darvish vs. Edinson Volquez

Cole Hamels vs. Lance Lynn

CUBS PROBABLE LINEUP

Ben Zobrist – 2B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

David Bote – DH

 

RANGERS PROBABLE LINEUP

Shin-Soo Choo – DH

Rougned Odor – 2B

Elvis Andrus – SS

Nomar Mazara – RF

Joey Gallo – LF

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B

Ronald Guzman – 1B

Jeff Mathis – C

Delino Deshields Jr. – CF

 

At least the offseason is over.

It’s been a long few months for Cubs fans. Not only did they have to sit and stew over two consecutive losses at home to end the season with two runs scored total (must be managed by Jeremy Colliton), but then their owner went and sat on the front office’s signing hands for months. So the relief that they’ll actually run out of the dugout is immeasurable today, if only to not see Tom Ricketts’s fucking face again. Let’s line it up and play.

The narratives are well known, but the one that will get overplayed from here on out is the status of Joe Maddon. Maddon didn’t turn out to be as innovative as we thought. He never shuts up even though he has little to say. The gimmicks and quirks have run a little dry. On the other hand, he took a beat up team last year through 43-straight days or whatever it ended up being and humped them (there’s an image for you) to 95 wins. We might be bored of all the lights and whistles, but the players aren’t and that’s what matters. Just don’t turn Steve Cishek into silly puddy again.

Another one Cubs fans might become hyper aware of is Opening Day starter Jon Lester and his decline. Lester was able to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way through the season last year, but his strikeout-rate sank, his hard-contact against rose, and he basically had his defense to thank for it all. And now he’s 35. The BABIP Dragon can be a cruel foe. You won’t find a grindy-er guy than Lester who will sit on the corners no matter what, and maybe he’s got one last surge in him to be the guy he’s been. He’s certainly a bellwether on this team, and the rotation is buffeted enough that it can probably survive if he’s just huckin’ dead fish out there by July.

The other big story of the series is Yu Darvish returning to the Cubs and returning to Texas. A lot of where the Cubs go hinges on what Darvish can provide, as he’s something of a new acquisition this season. If he stays healthy. Which is a huge if, as you’re talking about a guy who hasn’t seen 200 innings since 2013 and is coming off an injury-ruined campaign. Spring training was fun, he looks good, but everyone looks good until they get hit. It feels boom-or-bust.

Other than that, the lineup could still be doomsday gun. The bullpen will be an adventure for a bit, until Pedro Strop comes in and everything will be fine. And remember, Carl Edwards Jr. is great until August. Worry about it then.

To the Rangers, who somehow are in the last year of their stay in Arlington because it’s like 18-years-old and that’s totally outdated and fuck you that’s why. Fuckin’ Texas. Anyway, moving into a new stadium in the middle of a rebuild is always a choice, but here we are. The Rangers are gonna be bad, the Angels, A’s, and Astros especially are going to eat their innards on the highway all year, and it’s going to be fucking hot as balls.

The rotation is reclamation projects galore, with Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly, and Lance Lynn populating it. Hell, Mike Minor, the starter today, is one. The hope is probably to get these guys looking like something before the deadline and flogging them for whatever they can scrape off the pavement. You don’t make long-term plans around Lance Lynn, in the same vein as friends and salad and such.

In the lineup, only Nomar Mazara–who seriously looks like he’s about to destroy a small town every time he steps into the box–and Ronald Guzman figure to be around when the Rangers matter again. Guzman doesn’t project to be a star, and Mazara has had three goes at the American League without punching through. So clock’s ticking. This is the first year Elvis Andrus will look to his right and not see Adrian Beltre, so he might spend the whole year in black and playing Smiths records. Which we all should when it comes to the absence of Beltre. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are here for your strikeouts, home runs, and Cousin Vinny jokes.

Hey Hey Holy Mackerel…