Football

Week #9 – Bears vs Eagles Preview: Oh Dear God, Narratives

By Sam Fels 998 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bears 3-4   Eagles 4-4

KICKOOFF: Noon Sunday

TV: FOX

BRING BACK THE KELLY GREEN, DOOFUSES: Bleeding Green Nation

If it wasn’t bad enough the state of the Bears right now, Sunday is going to be filled with the kinds of stories and headlines that broadcasters love to reach for and beat into a pulp because they’re so easy. A playoff game from the previous season. Former players against their former teams. Struggling QBs. Questions over another kicker. You’re going to hear all of it Sunday, and probably by the time the second quarter starts you’ll be ready to go Elvis on your TV. And that might not even have anything to do with the actual play on the field. Then again, it might.

The Bears will roll into South Philly just about as big of a mess as they’ve been in…well, it’s really only been two years. They don’t know what they do on offense. They don’t know what they can do on defense at the moment. The special teams remain horrible. Their coach might actually be going Colonel Kurtz. And playing an opponent in similar straits didn’t do much for them last week. This time, they’re on the road.

The Eagles have some of the same problems, but they have the gloss of a Super Bowl and at least a passable defense of it still shining somewhat, at least buying everyone some time. Their quarterback at least needs it.

Carson Wentz went through some offseason character assassinations, some of which stem from him not being at the helm when the Eagles were achieving the business end of their success the past two years. There’s no Nick Foles now to lob up wounded prayers that no one can seem to get their hands on except those clad in green (still think Eddie Jackson would have won that game last January, and this is about all I have to hold onto now), so it’s all on Wentz. Our own Tony Martin documented how Wentz has been a bit all over the map this season.

Still, the Eagles have done a very good job of protecting Wentz, much better than Nagy has done with Mitchell. The Eagles have ramped up their rushing attack as the season has gone along, and they rank third in the amount of times they run the ball on first and second down in close games. Which is where NARRATIVE #1 comes in, and that will be Jordan Howard. He has steadily improved as the games have racked up, and with some Bears fans and media still befuddled at his trade and the Bears inability to get David Montgomery on track outside of last week, you can bet this is going to be harped on consistently by whatever meatbag is in the broadcast booth. If it’s Thom Brennaman again, he’ll probably be in a Howard Eagles jersey.

And as we’ve seen, the Bears haven’t exactly been a Spartan phalanx against the run this year. Which means Chuck Pagano is going to have to come up with something, which might leave the Bears even more vulnerable to some big shots to possibly returning firework DeSean Jackson along with shorter throws to another old friend in Alshon Jeffery and Julie Ertz’s husband in the seams. Fun times.

On the flip side of the ball, it’s once again a balance of whether the Bears catch a break in that they won’t face a hellion of pass rushers or the Eagles absolutely jonesing to get a look at the Bears offensive line. The Eagles have been pretty good against the run, which means Mitch is probably going to have to make some throws and you’re already hiding in the bathroom with a bottle of Old Crow and a shotgun. The Birds went heavy on man-coverage last week in terrible conditions in Buffalo against Josh Allen, daring him to make accurate throws in the wind. It’s not their usual forte, but there’s also no reason to think they won’t double up on that given that the entire league, country, world, and possibly a few alien civilizations feel that Trubisky can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo when the chips are down.

Which means we’ll get a whole lot more stories and narratives about last year’s playoff matchup, and how the offense let the defense down, how they missed a kick to win it, how Trubisky didn’t make enough plays in the first half to win the game, and how perhaps something broke that day with this team that has yet to heal.

All that said, it’s not like the Eagles secondary has been great, they’ve taken the ball away just about as much as the Bears have (i.e. not enough) and Allen Robinson should be getting open a lot of they’re going to insist on man-coverage a ton. Let him make the plays.

For no reason whatsoever, this feels like a game the Bears are going to win for no reason whatsoever. Other than football can be truly stupid, I guess. Everything points to the Eagles winning. They’re at home, they won last week, and they have the voodoo signs of last year. They seem to have found something of a formula for themselves last week in running the ball, which is ahead of the Bears. However, this is the Eagles and they’re always capable of throwing in a clunker, as evidenced by them getting crushed by the Vikings and Cowboys back-to-back (though both were on the road). But they’ve also lost to the Lions at home.

For the Bears, the season very well might be gone already so calling this a last stand is probably not accurate. Still, a loss here could very well send this team to oblivion, especially a bad one. A win with a home game against Detroit waiting at least allows everyone to keep breathing for a time. And I think we all want to believe last week was bottom. If it wasn’t…well, I already told you about the Old Crow and the shotgun.

*Glass Breaks*

“Oh my god that’s DJ Yung Milwaukee’s music!”

*Air Horns*

Fels-

Imma let you finish (oh wait you did), but I’ve got some piping hot takes I’d like to toss in here, because like Randy Orton on Monday night, I gotta wait until minute 19 of your 20 minute match to waltz in and hit you with an RKO to give you a DQ win. 

I think your last couple paragraphs are super telling, because you’re right- the Eagles sometimes lay an egg, but these Bears are Mancow from those Eagleman commercials: they have already crashed the car on which the egg is laid. The Eagles could play a stinker and beat the Bears, similarly to how the Packers, Chargers, and to a lesser extend Raiders all played poorly enough to lose but had the Bears nobly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. 

The key to beating the Eagles defense is through the air, because as you mentioned they have a fairly stout run defense. Naturally, this doesn’t play to the strengths of the Bears offense. The key to beating the Eagles offense is to make them one-dimensional, which also would require a strong start offensively. The projected game script doesn’t favor the visiting team, but as last night’s 49ers/Cardinals game proved, a QB with decent mobility that can step up and away from the pass rush can make the big play if the blitz loses contain. The only hope I have that this is a possibility is how crisply Anthony Miller was running on Sunday, and there is certainly a chance he can break off a route and turn a busted play into a big one, which will inevitably end with him being tackled on the 5-yard line and the Bears settling for three points. 

While I’m here, you’re partially right in your assessment that Eddie Jackson puts the Bears over the edge, because while that might be debatable, if both Jackson and Bryce Callahan were playing that game ends differently for sure. Jackson hasn’t had the opportunity to make his signature breaks on the ball since this year’s pass rush is lacking, and Buster Skrine isn’t really blowing minds as a replacement for Callahan. 

This game has “letdown” written all over it, but hey we’ve been let down since London so why worry? I’m more interested to see what Nagy does now that the season is getting away from this team from a play-calling perspective. This team is on the verge of being dangerous because they have nothing left to lose.  

 

Football

Week 9 – Eagles vs Bears QB Study: Carson Wentz (NOT Prince Harry)

By Tony Martin 971 0

Holy shit do I want to hate Carson Wentz, who I would like to first off assure you is NOT Prince Harry. I typed out and deleted a whole paragraph on how his Christian charity and religious work makes me uncomfortable, so let’s just ignore his personality as best we can and break down the Marcus Mariota to Jared Goff’s Jameis Winston (holy shit what a jumble of mediocre quarterback names).

Carson Wentz was the 2nd overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, and has had a somewhat star-crossed career in his time as the Eagles QB, similarly to how a certain member of the royal family is on one hand a darling of the British media while also having a history of wearing Nazi regalia. He came in as a rookie and put up middling numbers, played at a Pro Bowl level in 2017 before suffering a season-ending injury in week 14 before watching “Giant Penis” Nick Foles take his team to the mountaintop and win the Super Bowl against New England. Wentz came back partway through the 2018 season and again played well statistically. He’s doing the same this year, but just like last season his team isn’t holding up their end of the bargain.

Let’s take a quick look at his Next Gen Stats from NFL.com from last week:

A lot of short passes or passes behind the line, which makes a lot of sense against a stout Buffalo defense during a game that featured steady high winds. Wentz makes good use of screen passes, which the Bears are actually decent at defending, but he also makes good use of the deep ball when he needs to, which the Bears are shit at stopping. It’s worth keeping track throughout the week to see if speedsters DeSean Jackson and rookie burner Miles Sanders are suiting up on Sunday.

Wentz is an outstanding game manager when he isn’t being asked to do too much. He’s like the Duke of Sussex, he needs just a little less responsibility than one would ask of a proper King. He also excels in making plays with his feet, as he has underrated mobility and can buy time for players like Alshon Jeffery to break off routes and find open spots downfield. He’s getting sacked at the second lowest rate of his career according to Pro Football Focus (a sack on every 5.7 dropbacks), so you know he’s a threat there as well.

How do you beat Carson Wentz? That’s a good question. Even with injuries, Wentz has plenty of weapons in the aforementioned Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert, not to mention Jordan Howard anchoring the rushing attack and a decent offensive line. Wentz is impressive against the blitz, and if given too much time will make things happen with his feet.

He spreads the ball around very well considering the injuries he has dealt with this season with his skill position teammates. As mentioned before, he has two tight ends that can run any route asked of them, a wide receiver that can win at the point of the catch, and if Sanders is healthy he has 3 running backs that can catch passes (I am including Jordan Howard, thank you very much). This is not an offense that you can key on one player and isolate, the Eagles can beat you in a number of ways through the air.

If the Bears want to successfully beat Carson Wentz, they need to pressure him into throwing his occasional bad pass. He will literally pull a Mitch if given the chance and just leave you with a head-scratcher. Wentz tends to have a ball or two sail on him, and the Bears need to capitalize. If somehow Chicago jumps on an early lead, Wentz can get erratic. If the game goes how we all expect it to go, Wentz will put up outstanding numbers.

The Eagles can beat a team in a number of different ways, and this is a far different team than the one the Bears faced this previous January. Holding them to 16 points would be a big surprise and could make this game winnable, but Wentz has too many weapons and the Bears offense isn’t inspiring anyone to make us think opposing QBs will be feeling any situational pressure when on the field. If Carson takes the field and is pressing to make a play, the Bears will be able to take advantage, but ask yourself first if you can actually see that being the case when you envision the game on Sunday.

Good luck on Sunday Bears fans, because I’m setting the line at 2.5 for “mentions by the announce team of the ‘double-doink’ and Eddy Pineiro’s miss last week”.

Prediction:
Take the over for the announcers
Eagles 24 Bears 10
Carson Wentz is NOT actually Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, Earl of Dumbarton

 

 

…or IS HE?

Football

Are The Expectations For Mitch Trubisky Too High?

By Brian Schmitz 1742 0

This is the time of the football year when you literally cannot believe any of the news that comes out of camp. This isn’t just a Bears situation; this is the norm league wide. The NFL’s tightening of media accessibility as well every coach now borrowing the personality of Bill Belichick has basically made training camp the ultimate rumor mill. You could be looking at tweets from two different beat reporters from the same team and they are telling a completely different story of the same player.

Operating off this general baseline, I am not overly concerned about the recent tales of Mitch Trubisky’s struggles thus far in camp. However, given Matt Nagy’s preference to play his starters as little as possible in preseason games, we will have absolutely no idea what to expect from QB1 on Thursday, September 5th Vs. the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Nagy played Trubisky a grand total of 40 plays in the preseason. Reading between the lines, this year figures to be no different. Which begs the question: does this line of thinking retard Mitch’s development?

Trubisky will be better, there is no question about that. But how much better will he be? As it did last year, his athleticism will cover up a lot of shortcomings. Having another year in Nagy’s system will undoubtedly be reason for improvement. And as I have mentioned before, an elite defense will often create a short field which in turn will limit the chances the former Tar Heel QB will have to take on 3rd and long situations. All signs are pointing in the right direction.

Or are they?

Accuracy has been an issue for Trubisky throughout his professional career. Last year, he finished 14th in the league in completion percentage at 66%. This was a 7% increase from his 2017 season. To take this one alarming step further, the Bears starter averaged 7.4 yards in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt – good for 20th best in the NFL in 2018.

There may be a time or two this season when the offense has to win a game on its own, but based on everything I saw last year, I am not yet convinced that this offense as a whole can go out and score 50. While having one of the leagues best defenses is obviously comforting, it also can serve as a safety blanket for the offensive play-calling. Nagy’s system has as many formations as anyone in the league. But rarely do these wild-ass sets yield a big play. The Bears averaged just 5.4 yards per play last season; good for 20th league wide.

Another reason to be cautious about placing your money on Mitch Trubisky for MVP is his decision making; which came under fire much of last year and came to a head in an underwhelming NFL Wild Card game performance against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that couldn’t cover shit. Decision making, or a lack there of, becomes evident only when the bullets are live. OTAs and training camp doesn’t give a quarterback a realistic view of what they are going to face when the red jerseys are off.

If expectations were results, Mitch Trubisky would be the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. I don’t doubt Mitch will improve in his third season; he’s just not a guy who would crack my top 20 QB’s…yet.