Hockey

Game #25: Avs 5, Hawks 2–These Answers Don’t Elude Me, I’m Merely Avoiding What I Feared All Along That They Could Be

By Rose Rankin 1968 0

The Blackhawks were leading in shots, they led in possession, they had Corey Crawford in net who’s been stellar of late…and they managed to get completely outplayed and have their asses handed to them at home. And Duncan Keith is out with a groin injury, so all around a rough day. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–This game showed, in no uncertain terms, that the Hawks are not fast enough to handle elite teams. And I’m using “elite” in a very broad sense because the Avs aren’t REALLY an elite team right now because of all the injuries to their lineup. As the broadcast pointed out, they have about 5 AHL players on their roster right now and STILL managed to be faster and more skilled. It happened right out of the gate, with the Avalanche going up 2-0 less than 5 minutes into the game, and as you can see by the score, they didn’t really stop. They didn’t dominate in possession either—as Sam pointed out earlier, they’re not a possession team and they didn’t surpass a 40 CF% until the 3rd period, yet it didn’t even matter. They moved the puck up and out, burned our slow-ass defensemen time and time again, and they finished. Even Valeri Nichushkin finished. They were just better than the Hawks.

–Adding insult to injury (literally) is the fact that the Hawks only gave up 23 shots. They managed 36 themselves, and normally that would be something to celebrate—not only did they lead in shots but the Hawks gave up fewer than 4,728 in a game! But it was for nothing, as Crawford definitely did not have his best day, although the slow-ass defensemen just mentioned are more to blame than Crow. Yes, I’m always going to defend Corey Crawford and yes, he should have had a couple of those, but he was largely left hung out to dry by his teammates just watching faster players skate by them. And it wasn’t even just the defensemen. David Kampf, who normally is really reliable, let some pucks get by him at his own blue line. Patrick Kane ‘s give-a-shit meter was about -3 until late in the second and he lazily let pucks go multiple times. No one was tight defensively today. But hey, Kane’s point streak is still alive.

–And Duncan Keith apparently has a groin injury, which would explain at least partially why he got absolutely smoked a few times. (Erik Gustafsson doesn’t have this excuse, but that’s a larger problem that was in evidence today.) Obviously no one wants Keith to be hurt and it’s not going to help this lineup to have him out, seeing as he hasn’t been bad lately. But, if this does open the door to get Adam Boqvist back up here I’m going to try to focus on the glass being half full. If there is one takeaway from this game, it’s that they need faster skaters and puck movers and gee whiz where could they possibly find one?!

–Speaking of youngsters, Kirby Dach also had not-his-best-game and got stupidly demoted for it. Listen, he’s 18, he’s going to pass a few too many times, he’s going to lack confidence sometimes to shoot, and demoting him to the 4th line to center two oafs is NOT going to help that confidence or make him a better player. Meanwhile, Ryan Carpenter who is a fine bottom-sixer, should not be centering Kane and DeBrincat. Everyone had a rough afternoon. Everyone played like shit. This is no reason to fuck with the lines and ignore the basics of personnel and the talent you’re dealing with. It’s another symptom of Colliton being in over his head. My only hope is that Dach is back on the second line tomorrow and adds some fuck-you to his game so he doesn’t get demoted again while Strome is still out.

–It also should be noted that Alex DeBrincat muffed about 3 or 4 chances today. Granted, he had assists in his last couple games but he’s not scoring at the level we need. Sure, everyone was shitty today but if he had buried even one or two of those it might have been a different story.

–Erik Gustafsson had a terrible, very bad, no-good day. Two stupid-ass penalties, one of which led immediately to Cale Makar‘s goal, he got completely burned by Nichushkin on his goal, and made more turnovers than I care to count. You already know how I feel about this guy and his future on this team, so I will say no more. But he sucks.

–Speaking of guys who suck, Andrew Shaw is a useless tool. He dropped the gloves in the first once the Hawks were down 2-0, and because their first goal came sorta-kinda close to that, the broadcast was all over him with the tired, worn-out trope that a fight changes momentum and makes a team better. It does not, and it did not today. A good forecheck by Ryan Carpenter is why they scored their first goal, not Shaw’s dumbassery. And then at the end of the game he tried to fight a guy who just had plates and screws surgically implanted to put his face back together and was wearing a shield! But please, tell me again about his energy and how it helps the team.

OK, so they pulled their Jekyll & Hyde routine today and we were on the wrong side of it (was it Jekyll who was bad? Or Mr. Hyde? I can’t remember nor can I make thoughtful literary references right now). But they’ve got a chance to bring Boqvist to Denver, throw Lehner out there, and hopefully bounce back against a team that they can obviously shoot on. Or so we can hope. Onward and upward…

Line of the Night: “The Hawks having some problems in their own end.” —Pat Foley, in the most-heard refrain of the game.

Beer de jour: Good Behavior IPA, Odell Brewing

 

Hockey

Game #24: Stars 0, Hawks 3 – The Only Thing Consistent Here is How You’ve Always Been

By Rose Rankin 2173 0

This was a well-played game. Yeah, that’s right, I said they were good! Of course there were a few defensive breakdowns and they gave up a total of 16 high-danger chances, but they stayed right around 50 CF% as a team, they actually led in shots (38-32), and also gave up way fewer than 40 shots on the night. That alone is notable. Plus, only three of those high-danger chances came in the third so essentially they not only held a lead but extended it, took advantage of their one power play opportunity, and tightened up defensively when needed. Oh, and their goaltender was pretty OK too I guess. To the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The story tonight again was Corey Crawford, and really the goaltending in general. But let’s be honest, Crow was amazing, particularly during some scrums in the second period, such as during the PK on Shaw’s dumbass penalty (how many more times are we going to say that? Wait, I don’t want to know). The Hawks gave up 14 shots in the second, their worst period in that measure, and yes Calvin de Haan deserves credit for saving a goal but Crawford was basically the first and second star tonight (at least, to me his is). It seems safe to say at this point that balancing the workload with Robin Lehner is really working for Crawford, and it makes sense as he’s getting older and has more time to recover from shit like the two shots he saved with his facemask tonight. I’m not suggesting he’s concussed every time a puck hits him above the shoulders, but it’s just punishing in general to get hit with shit at high speeds, and the extra time to rest between games certainly doesn’t seem to be breaking his rhythm or his comfort in the crease. He’s the hero we need but don’t deserve.

–Anton Khudobin was really fucking good too, though, and the Hawks should be damn proud that they got two by him. The first by Brandon Saad was squeezed through a closing five hole like the Millennium Falcon escaping closing monster jaws. The second was Patrick Kane‘s that keeps his scoring streak going, and it was on their lone power play. That goal came in the third and basically sealed the game, and it was pretty classic where Kane held the pass as everyone in the UC—and me leaping off my couch—screamed for him to shoot but he held on just long enough to get Khudobin out of position. Well, really Khudobin was already flopping a bit but Kane’s patience faked him out just enough. It was a thing of beauty.

–And our Large Irish Son capped it off with the empty netter, which always seems like something we can never manage.

–One downside was that Dylan Strome was scratched for concussion protocol, but Kirby Dach did a fine job filling in on the second line. Granted, that line was still shitty defensively (35.7 CF% and 9 SA) but Dach played well and given Coach Gemstone’s predisposition to be randomly shitty to Strome, there’s a chance Dach plays himself right into Strome’s job. I don’t want that and I still say that DeBrincat-Strome-Kane is a no-brainer while Dach should play with Kampf and Kubalik, but I’m also saying don’t be surprised if the new kid supplants Strome, who ends up getting traded in a typical lack of foresight.

–Speaking of forward lines, the fourth line of Smith-Carpenter-Highmore was excellent. They had a 77.8 CF% at evens and a total of 5 shots between them. Early on in the first when the Hawks were getting outplayed, Zack Smith even had a breakaway that of course he couldn’t finish on because he’s Zack Smith, but still you gotta appreciate the effort. They were solid throughout and exactly what you want out of a fourth line.

–And, let’s just note for the record that the Hawks killed both penalties they gave up, and took advantage of the one power play they had. It was a little questionable with Erik Gustafsson as the only defenseman out there on the power play but as we saw, it ended up not being a problem. It was a relief to see them 1) not give up a shitload of penalties and 2) not fall to pieces when they gave up the two penalties that they did. We need special teams to keep this up.

–I also have to say, given everything that’s going on with the NHL right now with asshole coaches, endemic racism and bullying, and hopefully the start of a general reckoning with deep-seated cultural problems in this sport, I was relieved to not be listening to Pat and Eddie tonight. I pictured myself wincing every time Foley opened his mouth, worried about what ass-backward thing he would say if any of the recent news came up. And for the record, AJ Mleczko was knowledgeable, confident and had a nice TV voice—she was a pleasure to listen to and way less annoying of a between-the-glass person than that jamoke the local broadcast has been putting out there. She handled color commentary and the bench interviews and was excellent the whole time. Can we please try having more women in these roles?

The Stars’ winning streak and the Hawks’ losing streak are both over, good riddance. It’s not getting any easier with two against Colorado after the turkey coma, but if they can play like this it may just stay interesting. Onward and upward.

Line of the night: “He can scoot!” –John Forslund describing Kirby Dach, who is probably the only guy you could say that about and not get your ass kicked (yet).

Beer de jour: Busted Prop Wheat, Crystal Lake Brewing

 

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 11/25: Not Much Of A Pile

By Sam Fels 1656 0

Not easy to do this when they biff all three games in the week, but hey, our is not to reason why…

The Dizzying Highs

Patrick Kane – It’s not really all that different for him, but when the Hawks score five goals all week and he sets up four of them, this is going to be your spot pretty much every time. Even though it felt like he was just kind of “there” in the season’s first month, there he is in the top-10 in league scoring, even though he likely doesn’t have the amount of talent around him as the players ahead of him do. Or their teams actually have the puck, when the Hawks generally don’t. While the Hawks had to attempt two dumbass-luck comebacks this week against Carolina and Tampa, two teams that are just vastly superior to them, they actually have a chance to do that because Kane’s around to either set up Gustafsson with a chance he can’t miss or get a shot through that Strome can pot the rebound of or the like.

The Hawks would be utterly fucked without their goalies, but they might not ever score if it wasn’t for Kane.

The Terrifying Lows

Team Harmony? – The Hawks weren’t offensively bad at least against Tampa or Dallas, so it’s hard to single out a particular player. But still, something was off with Jeremy Colliton scratching a clearly not-deserving-of-it Domink Kubalik, in order to get Slater Koekkoek into the lineup against his former team where no one remembers him. Toews called him out on it, the players openly derided going with seven d-men, and it all just harms the overall picture.

The reasoning was poor, the outcome probably worse, and now it just feels like Colliton is making things up on the fly. There’s no reason to scratch Kubalik ahead of Zack Smith or even Andrew Shaw, but these are both now entrenched vets that Colliton has also become afraid of. Shaw you sort of understand, and he’s been better of late, but Smith doesn’t draw any water. Meanwhile Kubalik has been your second or third most consistent forward at both ends of the ice.

That doesn’t mean the players have up and quit on Colliton, based on Saturday’s effort alone. But it seems that comes out of professional pride or a duty to each other or both more than a belief in the whole structure. That won’t last forever.

Also, this:

Maybe this deserves its own post, but why is the first thing an opposing coach notices about the Hawks is that they spin their wheels better than anyone else?

The Creamy Middles

Connor Murphy – It wasn’t his most solid week, and the Tampa game was kind of ugly, and he’s being wasted on a pairing with Olli Maatta, and I could keep going, but this season is going to end with me screaming from whatever hill I can find in this godforsaken flatland that he’s the most underrated player in the league. Murphy was excellent against Dallas, and turned over the ice with mostly Miro Heiskanen on the other side and an anchor on his. And he at least kept Andrew Cogliano from scoring against the Hawks again, and Fifth Feather from tumescence. He’s the Hawks best d-man, and I can only pray that Kelvin Gemstone treats him like it sometime this season instead of playing Erik Gustafsson into a five-year extension.

Hockey

Game #22 – And Every Time You Think You Know Just What You’re Doin’, That’s When Your Troubles Exceed – Lightning 4, Hawks 2

By John Pullega 1567 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolving Hockey

A ho-hum affair through 40 turned into a small heartbreaker in the last 20. The Hawks gave up three goals against a team that ended up skating 10 forwards from the second period on, which isn’t great, but they kept it interesting. Let’s clean it up.

– Sue me for leading with Corey Crawford again, but of all the things the Hawks have done consistently well, goaltending is it. The highlight of Crow’s night came on the heels of Slater Koekkoek (more on him later) not doing whatever it is that Jeremy Colliton thinks he can do. After taking a stretch pass from Mathieu Joseph, Anthony Cirelli played catch with Alex Killorn on a 2-on-1 breakaway against Brent Seabrook. Christ on Earth what a horrifying thought. But Crawford managed to stop both of Cirelli’s attempts, which even a slightly lesser goalie would have been beaten on.

And once again, it’s hard to fault Crow for any of the three goals he was on the ice for. One came against a top-flight power play, and the other two came off bad positioning and turnovers.

– The next time Coach Kelvin Gemstone wants to inexplicably scratch a forward in favor of seven defensemen, he should scratch Alex Nylander instead of Dominik Kubalik. Unless Kubalik was hurt, refusing to serve A Bit of the Kubbly is bad on its own, given what Kubalik can do on both sides of the puck. But what, exactly, has Alex Nylander done lately, other than scoring two garbage-time goals against a backup goaltender? That’s not a hypothetical, because Nylander’s lackadaisicalness led directly to Tampa’s response goal in the third.

Following a failed Maatta clear that unfortunately hit the linesman, Nylander floated to the near boards to cover precisely zero skaters. This of course left a huge lane open for Victor Hedman, whose shot redirected off Cirelli and in. We knew that Nylander was a loaf on the defensive side of the puck, so it’s not so much surprising as it is disappointing, following the Seabrook miracle goal as it did. Surely, whatever system Colliton thinks he’s running doesn’t help, but picking your ass on the near boards doesn’t either. So.

– Piggybacking off that point, this whole playing Slater Fucking Koekkoek for any reason whatsoever horseshit needs to end yesterday. He contributed absolutely nothing positive, which should surprise no one, and was nearly responsible for a Lightning goal late in the second with the Hawks already down. This should be enough to bring your piss to a boil, but it gets even worse, dear reader.

Remember those two huge saves Crawford made that we talked about earlier? You can blame Fetch for that. With Mathieu Joseph beginning the breakout from the defensive zone, Koekkoek hovers in the neutral zone, then points at Joseph to signal to David Kampf to cover him. Yes, David Kampf, one of the steadiest and most reliable defensive players the Hawks have. While Slater MacArthur was giving his directives, wouldn’t you know it, Joseph fired a pass right by him, leading to two high-quality chances.

I don’t need Slater Koekkoek on the ice. I especially don’t need him making suggestions to one of the Hawks’s best defensive forwards about how to play defense. And the cherry on top was that he got playing time over Kubalik. I can only imagine that Colliton did this because Koekkoek was drafted by the Lightning and wanted to let him start against his former team, but that’s fucking stupid. Koekkoek was never a stalwart there. He was an afterthought. That’s why he’s here at all. Great work.

– Olli Maatta even slides slow. He sold out trying to defend Point and Palat’s 2-on-1 following a Kane turnover in the neutral zone and was both too early and too short on the uptake.

– Patrick Kane did keep his scoring streak alive with an assist on the Hawks’s second goal. He also led the Hawks in ice time with 27+ minutes, because Jeremy Colliton definitely knows what he’s doing and absolutely isn’t out of ideas just 22 games in.

– Speaking of Colliton knowing what he’s doing, the first period was chock-full of examples of why his defensive system doesn’t work with this team.

On this play, Palat passes up to Shattenkirk, who drives down the near boards. Palat then picks Dach as Shattenkirk gets around Murphy. Then, de Haan comes out to cover Shattenkirk, despite the fact that Brayden Point was standing right in front of Crawford and also WAS THE GUY DE HAAN WAS COVERING. Why abandon Point there? Is that what he’s supposed to do? If so, is Dach supposed to take Point at that point? What the hell are we doing here?

Here’s another fun one. Cernak takes a shot from the blue line and misses. Murphy can’t corral the puck behind the net. Conacher picks it up, and Dach and Koekkoek both try to cover him, leaving Joseph wide open in the slot. If this is what the system spits out, then the system sucks. If this is NOT what the system is supposed to spit out, then the Hawks cannot run it, and it should cease immediately.

– Brent Seabrook’s goal was fun. You rarely want to see Seabrook skating below the goal line, but he banked his shot off McElhinney’s back and in. It was a nice sliver of hope while it lasted.

They made it interesting at the end. That’s all we really ask.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s and Bell’s Best Brown

Line of the Night: “I love any kind of bar, but the popup ones are fun, too.” –Foley

Hockey

Game #22 – Lightning vs. Hawks Preview: First World Problems

By Sam Fels 1963 0

vs.

RECORDS: Lightning 9-7-2   Hawks 9-8-4

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THE GUYS WHO DON’T LOOK LIKE XQUISITE: Raw Charge

It may sound strange to say the Hawks have more points than the Lightning, but that’s the case as the two ’15 Finalists get together again on West Madison. But of course, as we know here, that doesn’t mean the Hawks are better off than the Bolts. The Hawks collected their 22 points in the Cirque de Stupid that is the Central Division and Western Conference as a whole, whereas the Lightning are trying to fight through the gauntlet of the Atlantic. And one of these teams did put up 128 points last year, while the other missed the lowest bar for the playoffs in years by a good distance. And not that much has changed.

That’s not to say everything is rosy in Tampa. They’re sitting just three points above the Eastern cellar, though only two points out of the last playoff spot. While watching the Lightning, or trying to measure them by various metrics, it’s kind of clear that there’s still a malaise from last spring hanging over and in this team. Nothing they do in the regular season is going to matter to anyone, but sadly with the division they’re in they can’t play the whole regular season like it doesn’t matter. Which is kind of what they’ve been doing. Other than their power play, which has reached that “self aware” level, everything else is just meh. Right in the middle of the league.

The Lightning still score, as their overall goals-per-game and even-strength goals per game are in the top five. With the king of marksmen like Kucherov and Stamkos and Point and others, they don’t need to dominate possession to get the scoring they need. Which is good, because they aren’t. Their possession and expected goals numbers re firmly middle of the pack. Again, they can get away with that given the talent for long stretches, but it’s not ideal long-term.

Especially as they may not get the PDO balance at the other end right now. When picking through the rubble of last season’s meltdown in the first round, it was hard not to start with Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s .856 SV%. Anyone can have a bad four games of course, but any big save from Vas in at least Games 1 or 2 could have pivoted that series. The Bolts never got one. That hangover seems to have carried over to this season, where he’s carrying a .906. The Hawks will get the backup tonight, as Curtis McElhinney will take the start.

And that’s probably the biggest factor for the Bolts to get back on track, because they don’t give up a ton of great chances. They’re not among the league’s best, but comfortably in the top half. If Vas can get back to .915 or better, everything should be fine in Tampa.

It also might not hurt the Lightning that they’ve only played seven home games so far, and after this one tonight 14 of their next 17 will be in Tampa. You wouldn’t be shocked by a charge up the standings before New Year’s.

To the Hawks, who could or could not be with Andrew Shaw tonight. He didn’t practice yesterday so they’re going to see how he shows up tonight. If he doesn’t go, the Hawks will dress all seven d-men as they don’t have an extra forward at the moment with Drake Caggiula in a dark room somewhere (my whole life is a dark room…). Every time in the past the Hawks have tried the 7-D look it has gone horribly, and everyone bitches to high heaven about it after. I still think it should be something they try more often and with Boqvist involved, if only to shelter him and Seabrook better. It also provides extra shifts here and there for Kane, Toews, Saad, Dach, DeBrincat, which is a good thing. But what do I know? I’m just a drunk in the rain. Corey Crawford will be your starter.

The Hawks got embarrassed twice by the Lightning last year, though no scoreline truly reflects it. This was the opponent that put up 30 shots in a period on them at the United Center last time around. Quite simply, the Hawks aren’t built to deal with this kind of skill and speed. And really, neither of those things have changed.

The difference, albeit small, between what the Hawks saw on Tuesday and what they’ll get tonight is the Lightning defense isn’t as consistently mobile as Carolina’s. Sure, Hedman and Kirk ShattenKevin are, and Sergachev and Cernak are too. But Sergachev can get wayward when under pressure, and whether it’s Schenn or Rutta joining him that can be exploited. So can Ryan McDonagh on the second pairing. Whereas the Hawks couldn’t get behind Carolina’s last line, they can on this one.

Which means some other d-men besides Connor Murphy have to get the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible to get the defense to back up, which in turn will give everyone more room to breathe. As we saw last year, when the Hawks try their 17-pass breakout, the Lightning’s plus-plus speed at forward and on the forecheck swallows them whole and spits them back out inside out. There just isn’t time for that, at least not until you back them up by proving you can and will stretch the ice.

It’s a rough part of the schedule, as the Hawks again get one of the better teams in the league, whatever the standings say, before two with the hottest team in the league and then two with maybe the best team in the division. But if you want to go somewhere, you can’t always take the path of least resistance.

Hockey

Game #21 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Preview: Throw A Molotov Cocktail And Have A Whole New Set Of Problems

By Sam Fels 1658 0

vs.

RECORDS: Canes 12-7-1   Hawks 9-7-4

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

REMEMBER, NORTH CAROLINA GAVE US TRUBISKY: Canes Country

In the ashes of the Bears demise, some hope has risen about the Hawks. They’re playing well, or at least they’re getting results. They’ve taken some scalps off teams that either used to give them a ton of headaches (Knights, Preds) or have name recognition (Leafs). They’re scoring goals. However, this week is when we’ll see just how much the Hawks can handle opening up the throttle. The Canes start it off and are still one of the best possession teams in the league. The Lightning are scuffling but also have the biggest collection of scoring around and throat-fucked the Hawks twice last year. The Stars are the hottest team in the league. The past two weeks has seen the schedule cut the Hawks some favors, as all of the Knights, Leafs, Preds, and Sabres have been fighting it of late. Not so much here.

The Canes kick it off, rolling into town on the back of three straight wins, though two were in OT over the just-vanquished Sabres and the simply unfortunate Wild. Before that, the Canes had some ugly losses to the Senators, Rangers, Flyers, and Devils, which are not teams the Canes should be losing to. It’s a bad look. This will also be the end of a mini road trip for the Canes, so the Hawks might catch them already thinking about the flight home.

As always with the Canes, they are a dominant even-strength team. They rank first in team Corsi-percentage, third in expected-goals percentage. And this time around, they’re only having problems at one end of the ice turning all that into actual results. The Canes are 8th in the league at 3.45 goals per game, and have spread it around nicely with seven guys having four goals or more. Erik Haula on their third line has eight, to give you some idea. Their power play has actually been a threat too, ranking eighth in the league at the moment.

But as is the Canes’ way, they keep buying into illusions of a goaltender. They got a remarkable run from Petr Mrazek last season, doubled down, and now stand gobsmacked that he suddenly turned back into Petr Mrazek. He has an .886 in November. He’s not this bad, but he’s also probably not last year’s .914 either. He’s been all over the map in his career, so it’s hard to guess. James Reimer was brought in to at least stabilize the backup spot and provide something of a safety net if Mrazek went to the dogs again. That hasn’t really worked out yet and suddenly the fear that last year’s flop in  Florida portends to a career-downturn are real. The Canes aren’t really getting saves, but filling the net at the other end to make up for it while limiting attempts and chances against so their goalies can’t torpedo them completely.

Again, this feels like a real test for the Hawks’ rediscovered UP AND AT THEM ways. They’ve passed the other ones to be fair to them, with the help of some shoddy goaltending at the other end. They may get that tonight as well. But the Canes defense is probably the best in the league and among the most mobile. They won’t be fearing getting caught with forwards behind them, and can pinch more aggressively in the Hawks zone because they can recover. The speed the Canes have at forward as well should be an utter nightmare for the Hawks’ defense, who will have less escape routes.

But again, the Hawks don’t have to break even on attempts and chances. They have the better goalie who is playing better (Lehner), and they have higher quality finishers. Stay in the neighborhood, as the Hawks have been doing, and they can rack up some more points. On the flip side, the Canes have utterly destroyed the Hawks the last three times they’ve played, because they just play at a higher pace than the Hawks can manage.

We’ll see how far this new “style” goes tonight against a team that’s been doing it better and for years longer. Get the feeling this one will have some goals in it.

 

Hockey

When You’re Built To Be Lucky

By Sam Fels 1864 0

It’s already happening, so perhaps it’s too late to steel ourselves against the oncoming backlash to the Hawks’ two-week stretch of competence, and even excellence at times. Every non-Hawks inclined observer is going to point out that over the past eight games the Hawks have shot 14.4% overall and gotten a save-percentage of .935 and when you get those you’ll probably win six or seven of eight, as the Hawks have. And that’s it’s not sustainable. Hell, did it myself. Rose alluded to it in her Sugar Pile today.

In some ways, it was kind of perfect that the Hawks played the Sabres last night, as you’ll recall that the Sabres won 10 in a row last year about this time of year, and far too many people used it as evidence that the Sabres were BACK or RELEVANT. And they most certainly were not either of those.

One difference is that seven of those 10 wins the Sabres managed were in overtime or a shootout. Only one of the Hawks’ streak here is in extra time, and that was the win in Anaheim. Regulation wins are a little more indicative, though obviously don’t tell a whole story.

And it’s always a worry when a team has to binge wins simply to get into the playoff discussion, not even in the playoff picture or at the top of any division. Because no matter what the process is or what has happened, the Hawks are not going to win six of eight games the rest of the season. Sitting one point out of the last playoff spot with multiple games in hand on Cal and Gary and Vegas is a nice place to be, considering where it started. But also the Knights and Flames are almost certainly better teams than the Hawks, and when the Men of Four Feathers fall off this pace the fear is that the pack will again move away from them.

Hawks critics, or even neutral observers, will quickly point out that the Hawks have the second best PDO in the league for the season, at 1.032 at even-strength (they drop to third at all-strengths, so not much difference). The other teams around them in that category are all near or at the top of their divisions. Colorado, the Islanders, the Bruins, and the Canadiens. You kind of have to be lucky to be good in the NHL.

The thing is, the Hawks are built to be lucky.

“Lucky” meaning that they’re built to have a PDO over 100. 100 has always been considered the neutral number, or the “right” one (quick primer if you’re lost: PDO is your save-percentage and shooting-percentage added together. It’s generally thought these things “normalize” at 100, much like BABIP in baseball at .300). If you stay above that for any stretch, most tend to think there’s air in your results and you’ll come back to Earth eventually, and vice versa.

Yeah, here’s the thing though, or one of them. If you look at save-percentages for goalies for the five seasons previous and this one, the Hawks have two of the top six in Lehner and Crawford (min. 200 appearances). Not only do the Hawks have a very good tandem, they actually have one of the best in recent memory, considering the pedigree.

So if you look at the Hawks’ overall save-percentage of .923…Crawford’s career SV% is .918, and .919 if you throw out last year’s injury-filled mess. Lehner’s career mark is also .919, so one has to ask how far the Hawks are really going to drop off that current .923 team save-percentage they have right now. At evens, Crow’s career mark is .926 and Lehner’s .923. So yeah, maybe they can’t quite keep up this current .940, but it’s also unlikely they’re coming off it that much either. That said, given the amount of shots they’re giving up a drop of 10 points, which would still leave a sterling .930, would be a big problem and result in a tsunami of goals against.

The Hawks are also top-10 in shooting percentage at evens, at 9.2%. That would be a high-water mark for them for the past five seasons or so, as they’ve never been above 8.9%. And maybe there are a couple outliers here. Kirby Dach is probably not going to score on a quarter of his shots going forward, as he currently is. We have no idea on Dominik Kubalik and his 10% mark. Nylander and his 11% mark? Don’t know either.

There are some the other way. We know that Debrincat is a much better finisher than his current 9.5% mark shows. Toews is currently running five points under his career mark as well. Others seem to be right around their mark. So again, 9.2% for the season is maybe a little swollen, but it’s also not outlandish. Five teams finished with a SH% over 9.0 last year, so it’s hardly unheard of. Of course, they were the Caps, Lightning, Leafs, Flames, and Sharks, teams you think of as having far more firepower than the Hawks currently do.

If the Hawks indeed had a plan this summer, and you’ll never convince us they did, this was it. The team might have faults and systemic rot, but at the ends of the ice where the things that happen that determine results, the Hawks would be better than average. Maybe much more so. They would get great goaltending and they would have finish, and they’d do their best to figure out the in-between, though they would almost certainly not come close in process.

We’ve always been process guys, not results guys solely. And the process still kind of blows. The Hawks are giving up three more shots per 60 at evens than anyone else, which is the same difference between the second-worst team (Rangers) and the 10th-worst (Leafs). Their expected-goals against is second-worst. Even over these two weeks, their expected goals against has only improved to eight-worst.

But given the saves and finish, the Hawks probably don’t need to “win” the attempts and chances battles, because they’ll get more goals with what they get than most, and they’ll get more saves than most. Those scales can slide a little in the wrong direction. It’s just a question of how much.

These Hawks were built to ride the wave longer than most. Even if it proves to not be enough.

 

Hockey

Atop the Sugar Pile – Winning Streak

By Rose Rankin 1996 0

Time for the good, the bad, and the slightly compelling in the world of the Blackhawks…

The Dizzying Highs

Kirby Dach: Six points in his last four games. Two goals last night against the Sabres. Completely manhandling Jack Eichel. And not only can Dach finish, his passing has been exceptional, as his assist to Dominik Kubalik Saturday night showed. His ability to control the play and hold onto the puck are already beyond his mere 18 years of age. It’s amazing what can happen when a coach and organization have faith in a young talent and encourage it at the NHL level, isn’t it? Now put him on a line with Kampf and Kubalik, damn it.

DeBrincat-Strome-Kane line: In news that surprises nobody, 12-17-88 is an offensive juggernaut. Among them, three total points Saturday night, seven points against the Knights, eight against the Leafs a week ago, and that level of production means that even having a quiet night last night isn’t that big of a deal. Going into Sunday’s game against the Sabres, Patrick Kane had 12 points in his previous five games and he added a goal to that Sunday. He’s on a nine-game point streak, and four of his goals this week came with assists from one or both of Strome and Top Cat. DeBrincat’s pass to Kane for the fifth goal against the Predators was particularly pants-tightening. Saying this line is good is the equivalent of declaring that water is wet, but the mundaneness of the statement doesn’t make it any less true.

The Terrifying Lows

The entire team’s basic defensive abilities except goaltending: This inelegant phrase is my way of saying the Hawks are not better defensively and are giving up way too many shots, chances, what have you. Going into Sunday’s game they were dead-ass last in shots against per game, averaging 37.3, which, as anyone who has watched recently can tell you, feels way too low of a number. Scoring chances against? Ranked 27th in the league with 446. High-danger chances against? Ranked 29th with 193. Now to be fair, those are aggregate numbers and over the last week they gave up only (haha) 75 scoring chances, putting them solidly in the middle of the league in that regard. However, their shots against are still dead-ass last over this past week (going into last night’s game), and after the 57-shot insanity against the Leafs, we’re just amazed that in Sunday’s game they gave up less than 40. So sure, against the Sabres it wasn’t as horrific as earlier in the week, but that’s a very, very low bar.

This is not sustainable. We talked about this on last week’s podcast and while the goaltending has been other-worldly, it’s too much to ask of even this caliber of goalies over the course of an 82-game season. Maybe having Connor Murphy back will help—if he can stay healthy for more than a week, that is. Much has been made of moving the weak-side winger to open up their offense, and that’s been all well and good, obviously. But clearly, whether they have three, four, or 25 guys down low, the Hawks just aren’t doing what needs to be done defensively. They were shitty before the “system change” and haven’t solved the underlying issue, just papered over it with offense.

The Creamy Middles

Erik Gustafsson: He had two goals this week and is generally not terrible to watch right now. The fancy stats won’t wow you (39.4 CF%, 38.5 xGF% and so on), but there are a lot of dumb GMs out there and if Gus can continue not failing the eye test he’ll be a tradeable asset before the deadline. His tough guy routine last night will also appeal to that demographic and improve his trade value even more. And that’s all I really want from him.

Hockey

Game #20 – See Now All My Flavors Are Guaranteed to Satisfy – Sabres 1, Hawks 4

By John Pullega 2343 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolving Hockey

The Hawks continue to ride the shooting percentage snake. Tonight was also about as well rounded a game as they’ve played. Let’s clean it up to put a nice feather in a good weekend’s cap.

– Kirby Dach, you are our huckleberry. Dach’s been aces over the last few games, and tonight was the exclamation point on his current hot streak. We all knew that Dach had slick hands before he even got here, but the big question mark was how he would look skating at NHL speed. Tonight provided an emphatic answer. Just look at how badly he fooled Jack Eichel on his first goal.

Eichel’s caught flat-footed as Dach explodes through the neutral zone, then redirects Dach’s backhander right past Hutton. Credit A Little Bit of the Kubbly for threading that pass right past the forlorn Henri Jokiharju, but it’s Dach’s effortless stride that’s the star of the show.

On Dach’s second goal, it was almost the exact same play, just going in the opposite direction. Zack “You Actually CAN Spell Party Without Arty” Smith weaved himself into the offensive zone, swept himself into the slot, then dinked a pass to Dach, who once again outskated Eichel for a backhander. The speed-and-hands combo is going to be a nightmare for opponents if he can do that consistently, and it’s looking like he can. He ate Jack Eichel alive all night.

Kirby Dach is extremely good. He may be the cornerstone of the future for the Hawks’s forwards.

– Another game, another brilliant performance from Corey Crawford. Outside of a bad turnover behind the net that nearly led to a Sabres goal in the first, Crawford was about as flawless as could be. For once, the Hawks weren’t vastly outshot by an opponent (34–27 this time around), and they kept most of the Sabres’s attempts to the outside. There’s little more to say about how important Crawford (and Lehner) has been to this team so far.

– Patrick Kane has a nine-game scoring streak with his PP-scramble goal. That creep can roll.

– Dominik Kubalik had a quietly good game tonight, which makes the fact that had just above 12 minutes of ice time in ALL situations a bit puzzling. Yeah, I get not changing shit when it’s working. But I can’t get away from the idea of Saad–Toews–Kubalik and the damage that line could do on both sides of the puck. That line’s missing a finisher, and Kubalik has the shot to be that guy.

– Speaking of Saad, he led all Hawks forwards in ice time tonight, and rightfully so. He and Nylander had three or four 2-on-1s that they just couldn’t make work, whether because of a rogue Nylander pass or Saad’s lack of finish. Those two were so close to making their possession chemistry click that I get keeping them together with Toews, but it might be worth pushing Nylander down in the lines. He’s had success when the stakes aren’t as high. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Back to Saad, his highlight tonight came on Toews’s goal. After a bad Ristolainen turnover on the near boards, Saad crashed the net and, per usual, got stuffed. But he stuck with the puck and found a wide-open Toews in the slot. A quick flick of the wrist and it’s 4–0 Hawks.

– Connor Murphy looked good tonight with several key breakups. His sweep check on Lazar in the first prevented an odd-man rush. He had a strong block after a Crawford save on the PK in the third that prevented an open chance. When he’s healthy, he’s everything that everyone wants Olli Maatta and Calvin de Haan to be.

– De Haan was entirely at fault for the Sabres’s only goal, with an unforced giveaway to Jack “My Father Is Younger Than Me” Eichel. His entire third period was piss, but that goal was the only mistake that cost him. Something to keep an eye on, because it was out-of-character bad for him in the third.

– I’m done with Andrew Shaw, friends. Yes, he got an assist on Dach’s goal, but that doesn’t excuse the fact that he can’t stickhandle for shit and his skating fucking sucks. The best example of this was at the end of the Hawks’s PP in the second. He had an unforced turnover in the offensive zone that he parlayed into a totally unnecessary neutral zone hooking penalty that put Buffalo on the PP. The Hawks killed it off and all, but this kind of shit would get most guys scratched. Shaw did end up toward the bottom end of the TOI mix, so maybe Coach Kelvin Gemstone’s brand is on the rise.

Taking nine of their last 10 points available is fun. The way they’re doing it is fun. Let’s enjoy this fun for as long as it lasts.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: High Life

Line of the Night: “He’s trying to get off really hard.” Konroyd on Dach

Hockey

Game #19: Hawks 7, Predators 2 – Just By Chance You Crossed the Diamond With The Pearl

By Rose Rankin 1983 0

Guys…I think Pekka Rinne has a terminal case of shit hip! After basically laughing publicly at the Hawks’ terrible performance a couple weeks ago, Rinne got himself laughed right out of the game tonight, giving up 4 goals on 14 shots. Ya hate to see it. And this shit went full-on DLR. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Yes, Rinne was bad and Saros wasn’t great either, but the Hawks do deserve credit for playing better this time around. At first it didn’t seem that way—they spent way too much of the first period in their own zone, but they capitalized on bad goaltending and also a beautiful play from Kirby Dach to Dominik Kubalik. So it was a bit of luck and skill combined. And the pass from Dach to Kubalik was exactly why I’ve been complaining about Dach being marooned on the fourth line. He makes plays, he’s already improving his ability to hold onto the puck, and playing him with other skilled linemates will help the team now (see: tonight’s assist) and Dach’s development overall. Playing him with fourth-line bum slayers like Zack Smith will not. (Nothing against Smith even, I’m just making a point.) Doesn’t seem that hard to figure out playing Dach on the wing with Kampf and Kubalik is better than Dach centering two oafs, but whatever.

–The other funny thing about tonight was that the Hawks got domed in possession, but stats be damned I suppose. They had just a 45, 37, and 29 CF% in each period, respectively, and they were outshot 41-24, but thanks to ‘Ole Shit Hip not being able to stop much of anything and Saros not being much better, the number that really counts was in our favor the whole time.

–And let’s just be honest, the air raid offense was in full effect tonight. Seabrook’s goal was a fluky one that Rinne should have had, but Kampf’s goal was off a fantastic end-to-end play, where the Hawks got control behind their own net, moved the puck up and out, and passed it perfectly from Maata to Shaw to Kampf. Kubalik’s aforementioned goal came off a great play. Same with Nylander’s first goal. And you know what? I’ll be magnanimous about Nylander’s second too because it was a damn good shot set up by a great pass off the boards by Saad. The Hawks didn’t always control the puck or the play but they were able to get rushes and bury their shots. Would be nice if they could maybe hold onto the puck and stop giving up over 40 shots a night, but you know what they say about gift horses.

–Alex DeBrincat was excellent tonight even though he didn’t actually put the puck in the net. His ability to keep plays alive, and in particular getting the pass to Patrick Kane on the fifth goal, were outstanding. Piece of Shit Austin Watson wanted to obliterate him but couldn’t, and Garbage Dick didn’t miss once he got the pass.

–Lehner was fantastic again as well, let’s not forget that. Granted, facing 41 shots seems like an easy night with this team, but he still finished the night with a .951 SV% and absolutely kept the Hawks in it in the early going before the game was definitely in hand.

And with that, let’s not delay this DLR any longer…

 

 

Line of the Night: “That was a bad goal.” —Eddie Olczyk, stating the very obvious after Seabrook’s knuckleball on Rinne

Beer de jour: Mercury by On Tour Brewing