Everything Else

Game #18 – Hawks 2, Hurricanes 2 (Canes win ping pong tourney): Can’t Get Right

By Sam Fels 1889 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Well, changing coaches hasn’t worked yet. Jumbling around the lines didn’t really either. Though Jeremy Colliton has his first point, a return of one out of six probably isn’t what management had in mind. Or maybe it was and they didn’t tell us?

Whatever it was, tonight was nothing we didn’t know. The roster is short, and there a couple veterans not carrying their weight. This team was probably calibrated on the hope that they would. I don’t know why you’d calibrate it that way, but here we are. At least I don’t have another explanation. If you do, feel free to share.

All right, let’s clean this up and get on with our lives.

The Two Obs

-Not sure where to begin, so I’ll unfairly begin with Duncan Keith again. While his glaring gaffe (alliteration, people) took place on the penalty kill, so I should probably just dismiss it as him getting the inevitable goal against out of the way early so the Hawks could get back to even-strength.

At some point this season, if Jeremy Colliton accomplishes nothing else this season but convince Duncan Keith that he’s no longer DUNCAN KEITH, I’ll call it a success. We went over this on Saturday. Duncan Keith was paired with Henri Jokharju to take that aspect of his game off his plate. It was meant to streamline his game, and keep him more efficient with what he can do. He didn’t listen. Maybe he can’t fight it, maybe it’s been too long.

Pairing him with Seabrook was only going to enforce that feeling, I guess. So there he was, chasing Andrei Svechnikov outside the circles, pretty well contained out there. But Keith can’t get there anymore. And Svechnikov, a budding monster, is going to walk him every time. He did it later in the game as well, So did Aho. But this is the one the Hawks paid for. Svechnikov has a clear path to the net, forcing Seabrook into basically Sophie’s choice. He could maybe do a little more than just amble over there while leaving a passing lane to Michael Ferland, but here were no good options.

Someone get Keith in front of a video screen with nothing but how Ryan Suter plays these days. It’s a super-efficient game, where Suter lets the game come to him and picks his spots when to get outside the normal parameters. Keith is still chasing the game and trying to bend it to his will, He can’t do it anymore. And the Hawks keep paying for it.

-That goal was off a Henri Jokiharju penalty where he braced for a hit at the expense of getting the puck. These are the kinds of mistakes we would normally live with, but now is about the time they have to stop. Hey, The HarJu isn’t going to survive too many hits in the NHL with the puck. But his hands are quick enough to move the puck along before getting hit. Chalk it up to the learning curve.

-Which will bring us to Nick Schmaltz. We generally like Schmaltz around here. Fine player. Clear problems. The refusing to shoot is getting really annoying. And Eddie correctly lit him up for ducking out of a puck battle/hit with Justin Faulk (though Schmaltz did cause a turnover a second later, but still).

And that kind of thing keeps happening. And it’s a tough sell to your fanbase and everyone else when you’re saying you basically did nothing in the offseason to keep your powder dry in big part to re-sign Schmaltz. Because he keeps looking like a second-line player, whether that’s wing or center. You don’t build around second-line players. I don’t want to know what kind of deals Stan turned down that included Schmaltz.

Schmaltz still has 60 games to turn it around and look like a real piece. But it’s year three now, you kind of know where he is. Are you tossing $6 million at this? Or are you hoping he keeps doing shit like this and we’ll have to agree to a bridge deal? And shoot the fucking thing already.

-Brandon Davidson and Jan Rutta got themselves in a tangle when the Canes were on a change and there was literally no forechecker in the zone and they couldn’t manage to pass between each other in the 2nd period. I can’t really sum the third pairing up any better than that.

-Other than the penalty, Goose and The HarJu weren’t a complete disaster, to the tune of a 68% and 64% share on the night.

-It’s nice that the Hawks fourth-line was so effective. But to review, when your fourth line is your most effective, that’s a problem.

Ok, that’s enough. It’s a point. Maybe it’ll be better to snap it against the Blues. Somehow, I doubt it.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #18 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Preview: Because Seven Eight Nine

By Sam Fels 1617 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 6-8-3   Hurricanes 7-7-3

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MAKES YOU? LARRY!: Canes Country, Section 328

It has to end sometime, it has to end somewhere…

I can’t say that it’s totally encouraging that Jeremy Colliton is hitting the Quenneville Memorial blender in his third game in charge. I’m sure the constant line-shuffling was something that came to annoy the players in the end from Q. But Q drew a lot of water, and it could at least be construed that he was an experienced coach who was just experimenting, and who had earned the right. A coach in his third game in his second season in North America at all might look like he’s just throwing shit at a wall.

But according to the morning skate today, that’s what the Hawks might get. Brandon Saad didn’t skate, and he’s only a maybe to go, so that could confuse things even further. As of now, Patrick Kane and Nick Schmaltz have slotted up with Jonathan Toews in a definite “go-for-it” top line. Sure, fine I guess, Toews hadn’t produced much of late with Dominik Kahun and Top Cat. Then it gets silly.

What a line of John Hayden, Artem Anisimov, and Alex Fortin is going to do is really a mystery up there with the Bermuda Triangle and how Ricky Jay ever had an acting career. Top Cat-David Kampf-Kahun is at least worth seeing as it’s really fast and active. I guess. I don’t know really what I’m supposed to say here. The fourth line doesn’t matter and is basically “Eat Arby’s” territory like the third-pairing.

The changes don’t stop there, as there’s been a shuffle in the top-four on the blue line. Marlboro 72 has been reunited, because apparently they weren’t bad enough separately and can really reach a new level of suck together. Erik Gustafsson paired with Henri Jokiharju only exacerbates the problems that pairing The HarJu with Keith created, in that the Finn has to play free safety for his partner’s directionless wanderings instead of pushing the play and getting involved in the offense which is supposed to be his calling. We know Gustafsson needs a GPS and a guide-dog in the defensive zone.

Let’s get nuts!

I suppose when you’ve lost seven in a row you have license to try anything. Consider that license used. Cam Ward will get the start in his return to Carolina, and hopefully doesn’t decide to relive the old days by giving up four or five as he so frequently did while adorned in the warning flags of Raleigh.

As for the Hurricanes, they’re coming off blowing a two-goal lead to the Red Wings and losing in overtime, somehow. Not that anything could have changed all that much from last Thursday, so you know the drill here. They have great possession numbers, they generally maul teams at even-strength, but there’s no one around here to finish all those chances consistently and Scott Darling (unless he’s playing the Hawks, obvi) can’t make enough saves to let them get by with their sneeze-like finishing. This is why they’re the leading contender for William Nylander, should the Leafs decide they don’t need a dynamically talented forward.

This will sound stupid, and it very well may be. The Hawks have rolled both the Canes and Flyers in the first period of Colliton’s two games. They got stoned by goalies who are supposed to be nothing much more than construction horses. Then they do something stupid to get behind and they lose all their zest. But that luck should turn. If the Hawks can get the same kind of start they’ve gotten, even with this pile of goo lineup, they will get goals. Get a lead, start to relax, get your feet under you, and maybe we can see what this team could look like with Colliton.

Then again, given the defense, the chance of doing something stupid to undo all your good work at the other end is always extremely high. But let’s hope for the best, because there’s not much else to do.

 

Game #18 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #17 – Hawks vs. Flyers Preview – Life In The So-Called Space Age

By Matt McClure 1862 0

 @ 

Game Time: 12:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NHL Network, WGN-AM 720
The Gang Welshes On A Bet: Broad St. Hockey 

With the first game of the Jeremy Colliton Era under the Hawks’ belt in less than thilling fashion, the team leaves for the East Coast for a two-game Metro Division swing. The Hawks find a team in the Flyers who could probably use the recently departed Joel Quenneville’s services.

Everything Else

Game #16 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Preview: It’s A New Day, Yes It Is

By Sam Fels 1573 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hurricanes 6-7-2   Hawks 6-6-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL, DIDN’T HE?: Canes Country, Section 328

However you feel about Joel Quenneville‘s firing, tonight marks the most interest-laden regular season game in quite some time around these parts. Anyone with the slightest inkling of Hawks give-a-shit is going to want to tune in and see whatever changes might be visible (also, Eddie O’s pregame take should be must-see viewing, as well as the verbal wheel-poses and one-legged crows he and Foley will perform trying to air their grievances without directly indicting their bosses. I’m almost sorry I’ll be in the building. Almost).

As far as things you can identify on the ice tonight, they might be scarce. Jeremy Colliton himself has said there isn’t really time for a systematic overhaul, and that there will only be tweaks to start with. As we said yesterday, the big things to watch for, if any, are how the Hawks try to break out of the zone. Whether they’re still trying to make two or three passes to do so or if they just go with a GTFO-method. The other will be how they defend, as we’ve seen them try to be more pressure-based with very mixed results, to be kind. Colliton has made noise about being just as aggressive but doing so farther up the ice. We’ll see if that materializes and what they do in their own end. Right now we’re just asking for four guys not to end up on one side of the zone and all puck-watching. Baby steps to the elevator, people.

As far as lineup decisions, Colliton has told John Hayden, Brandon Manning, and SuckBag Johnson to do one tonight, and you certainly can’t fault him on the latter two. The difference between Hayden or Andreas Martinsen is somewhere around negligible, so we’re not going to hold our breath until we turn purple on that one. Sadly, it appears that Nick Schmaltz will remain on a wing tonight, with Artem Anisimov and Patrick Kane, but again…baby steps to the elevator.

You might look at the Carolina Hurricanes’ record and conclude that this is a pretty nice landing for a first-time coach making his debut in front of what will be an at-best skeptical UC crowd. This would be a mistake. While the Canes’ record sucks, and for the usual reason in that they can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel when it comes to scoring, their metrics suggest this is a dominant even-strength time. They’re running 60%+ in both Corsi and expected-goals, and lead the league in both. They give up the least amount of attempts per game, and are 4th in xGA/60 as well. If their shooting-percentage were to curve up in any way, this is a team poised to rocket up the standings. But it seems like we say that every year and the Canes still end up just south of a tropical depression.

One thing that might keep that from happening is the Canes just don’t have a premier scorer on the roster. Sebastien Aho might claim to be one on more days than not, and Andrei Svhechnikov was drafted to be that but is 18. And that’s about it. This team is never going to shoot the lights out, which might betray their possession-dominance. This is why they’re the front-runner to relieve the Leafs of their William Nylander conundrum. They desperately need someone of that quality and have the wealth of blue-liners to make that happen.

The other constant virus that brings the Canes down is goaltending, and that’s no different this year. Scott Darling started the year injured and in his two games back has been iffy. Neither Petr “Try Try Try To Understand He’s A” Mrazek Man or Curtis McElhinney, even with the statue of him going up in Toronto at the moment, have grabbed the job with two hands in Darling’s absence. They’ve kept an opponent under three goals just once in the past six, and that was to the Islanders who are similarly bull-ass-and-shovel disabled. And seeing as how they shoot, three goals is about the number they can’t overcome.

So yeah, on the surface this could really look bad if it goes sideways on Colliton tonight. But the Canes are the exact kind of team that Quenneville’s Hawks found to be a nightmare the past two years. They’re fast and play high-pressure, and there’s no give in that speed anywhere in the lineup. Q’s methods were undone by teams like this. It comes too early to find out if Colliton has better answers, but the Hawks won’t get anywhere if they can’t figure it out against teams like this. The good thing is the Canes lack the firepower to consistently punish you for mistakes or simply being on the receiving end of a possession-mauling, nor can they keep you out from the limited chances they surrender. How the Hawks surpass the Canes forecheck will give you an idea of where we’re headed with Colliton at the wheel.

That’s where the Hawks will likely get THE NEW ERA off to the right start tonight. Corey Crawford getting back to the first couple appearances of the year, and their superior scoring talent burying the fewer chances they get at a better rate than the Canes do with the higher amount they’re certain to have.

Whatever you thought the past was, it’s gone now. This is where the Hawks pivot, for better or worse. You can’t say you’re not curious.

 

Game #16 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineup s& How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

What Can Jeremy Colliton Do?

By Sam Fels 2554 0

Even with four days off, there’s hardly any time to pivot from the end of the greatest coaching career the Hawks have ever seen to the era of Jeremy Colliton, whatever it might be. Maybe you shouldn’t look to bury your news on Election Day, hmmm? Another discussion for another time.

The Hawks may still be in a state of shock, but the schedule kicks into gear again tomorrow night and it doesn’t let up after that. The Hawks won’t have more than two days off in a row until Christmas, and only two days off in a row twice in that span. It’s 24 games in 45 days, and at the end of it the Hawks will have established that they can in fact be in the playoffs or it will be over and thoroughly so.

So there isn’t a lot of time to implement whatever changes the Hawks and Colliton want (and we can only pray these are the same, though they have to be). So what can Colliton do?

Up the speed: The roster isn’t going to change, so this isn’t going to become a good defensive team anytime soon. The biggest change I think we’ll see with the Hawks is them getting up the ice as fast as possible. Help the defense by not playing it as much. The Quenneville Breakout (TM) will be consigned to the trash. I think you’ll see Hawks d-men putting the puck off the glass or chipping it over the opposing d-men or attempting stretch passes far more. And that’s with two Hawks forwards bursting out of the zone instead of one. One waiting along the half-boards to either squeeze it out along the boards or hit a moving center in the middle of the ice is something you won’t see a lot of. Get the puck into space, let your fast forwards skate onto it, and try and score on the rush. Get into the offensive zone before teams can get into shooting lanes.

Even if you don’t score, you can cause chaos off the ensuing rebounds and loose pucks that further prevent teams from collapsing into their slot and keeping everything to the outside. This will lessen the responsibility on the d-men who don’t have to worry about options and tough passes on the breakout and can just get pucks to space instead of sticks. It might not help them much actually defending, but the idea is that the puck will spend more time in dangerous spots on the other side of the ice.

Back pressure: The hope is that this new, faster style of attack will lead the Hawks to losing the puck less and less around the blue lines. This has been a huge problem, because over the past season and a month now you’re awfully familiar with teams getting to use the neutral zone as a launchpad with no Hawks forwards in the picture and 3-on-2s all day steaming into the Hawks’ zone like a Mongolian horde. Or they turn it over at their own line, with forwards caught heading into the neutral zone, and it looks like the last scene in “Inside Out” when the “Girl” alarm goes off in the boy’s head (this is also what happens in my head when confronted by a girl)e.

The Hawks defense can’t really step up beyond their blue line if there aren’t forwards supplying the back pressure to crash those puck-carriers into the rocks. This was a Q staple, and something the Hawks need to find a way back to. They can’t do that when they’re turning it over from the opposing circles and above. If they play faster into the offensive zone, get more space, and force teams to start their forays forward from deeper, they can. Again, this will relieve some pressure on a blue line that really isn’t up to it.

Load up the first PP unit, fuck the rest: This seems so simplistic. Your first power play unit is Patrick Kane, with three right-handed shots staring at him from across the ice. Whether that’s Seabrook or Jokiharju at the blue line, no one fucking cares. Top Cat at the other circle, because he also has the ability to send that pass back to Kane for the same results. Schmaltz in the middle of the box. Toews bouncing between the slot and behind the goal line. This gives Kane all sorts of options and forces the PK into making decisions and leaving something open. Leave them out there for 90 seconds at least each opportunity. You don’t have enough for two killer power play units anyway, so give the first one all the chance in the world.

Oh, and take that “Push ‘Em Back” entry and push it back into your ass. Thank you.

Put Schmaltz at center: Welp, already boned this.

Seriously, if the Hawks’ intention here is to go plaid all the time, then it’s hard to know how Artem Anisimov can fit into that. That said, the Saad-Kampf-Fortin line has a ton of speed and defensive know-how, and if the idea is to get them into space more and more that could be fun. So for the first few games, I guess it’s worth seeing.

Communication: As we said on the podcast, this seems to be the #1 thing the Hawks want to change. And it’s not surprising to hear that a host of young players were on edge because they didn’t know why they were in a certain spot in the lineup or out of it altogether. No longer will answers to the press of “We need more,” suffice. The Hawks clearly need to maximize Kahun, Schmaltz, Jokharju, Gustafsson (who’s on that young really), Forsling when he’s up, Kampf, and Sikura when he arrives (which I’m sure is shortly). Having them feel comfortable, appreciated, and with clear tasks only helps that.

If Colliton can do that and the Hawks still fall short, we’ll know exactly where the problems are (I mean we already do but you get it).

Everything Else

Game #15 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview: Spiderman Meme

By Sam Fels 1796 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 6-5-3   Flames 8-5-1

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BEING RELOCATED FOR OLYMPICS: Flamesnation.ca

For a Saturday night, especially right at the beginning of prime drinking time, you probably want a game between two teams that like to get up the ice and couldn’t stop a nosebleed on the other end (CAN’T WAIT!) on your television as party fodder. Well friendo, that’s what you’re going to get tonight at the Not Saddledome in Calgary. The Hawks and Flames are something of mirror images of each other: ultra-aggressive with both forwards and defense getting into the attack, and more than occasionally leaving the goalie to fend for himself with nothing much more than a toothbrush, paper clip, and a sense of whimsy.

How they go about it is slightly different. The Flames have a pretty good blue-line, though one they decided to reduce a touch by moving out Dougie Hamilton for Noah Hanifin, and the latter has not impressed the Red Mile yet. The Hawks have a plus goalie who can, more often than not when healthy, stand up to the roving hordes that their defense and system wave through with not much more than a quizzical look. The Flames very much do not. The Flames though have a genuine top line and one of the more dominant lines in hockey behind it. The Hawks do not. Either way, what you’re left with is a good measure of fireworks.

We’ll start with Cal and Gary. They come in having won three in a row, the last being a barnburner where they had to overcome Mike Smith‘s ill-timed sneezes every time the Avs put a shot anywhere near him. They did that with five goals in the 3rd for a 6-5 win. And that’s been the story for the Flames so far. They either have to overcome what Smith and their defense combine to destroy, or they get the competent goaltending from David Rittich whom their coach pretends doesn’t exist. They can’t always do the former.

Bill Peters is having the same issues in Western Canada that he did on Tobacco Road. His system does create a lot of attempts for his team, and the puck spends the majority of the time, and a big majority at that, in the right end of the ice. But he has his defense so hopped up on goofballs to get up the ice and his forwards stretching that they leave a ton of space behind. D-men get stranded on breakouts, forwards don’t get back, or d-men get caught up ice. All this might sound very familiar to you, the Hawks follower. So once again, Peters has a goalie straining under the pressure, and Mike Smith at 36 is unlikely to rediscover any plate-spinning form.

What Peters does have that he didn’t in Carolina is genuine, top-line talent. All of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm (WHO WANTS TO WALK WITH ELIAS?) are averaging a point-per-game or more. Behind that is the 3M line, when Peters isn’t stringing up Michael Frolik for reasons no one can identify, which has been one of the most effective lines in hockey for years now. They get the toughest assignments, the toughest zone-starts, and yet they just punt the play up the ice all the time. They have also scored a bunch, as Matthew Tkachuk has 17 points, Frolik six goals. Peters clearly didn’t have this weaponry with the Canes.

The bottom-six isn’t a barren wasteland, though James Neal might wonder what he’s doing there after signing a free-agent deal presumably to run with Gaudreau and Monahan.

And the Flames should have a good blue line. Getting to play with Mark Giordano again has brought T.J. Brodie back from his kabuki interpretation of the Walking Dead he’s been performing for the past two seasons. Travis Hamonic hasn’t been the sand person he was last year, though he and Hanifin are always capable of a clanger. Two kids on the third-pairing, Juuso Valimaki (JUU! SO!) and Rasmus Andersson have really turned heads with some hammock shifts. But again, with Peters basically having everyone shotgun up the ice as if there was a giant “FREE BEER!” sign over the end-boards, they do get caught a lot on odd-mans and breakaways. The Hawks should have some chances.

And they’ll give away some, too. We know this. And if they leave the Flames’ top-six off the leash too much they’re coming home from Western Canada with nary a point. No word yet on lineup changes. One would have to assume Nick Schmaltz will get back in, where he can do everything he can to create chances for Alexandre Fortin and SuckBag Johnson and then watch them fire the puck off Harvey The Hound. Brandon Manning will probably draw back in but as you know it doesn’t matter for what on that third-pairing so EAT ARBY’S. Crow will get the start because he has to.

This one has 5-4 written all over it, but the Hawks can have serious hope that Crawford can outplay Smith, unless they take Smith’s puddle-making extravaganza from Thursday as a sign to pivot to Rittich. Crow will almost certainly see more chances against. But he has a better chance of standing up to them than the other two do. At least that’s the hope.

 

Game #15 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game # 14 – Hawks 0, Oilers 4: Should I See You if You Come Around

By Rose Rankin 1648 0

This game was, well, for lack of a better term, stupid. From scratching Nick Schmaltz to getting goalie’d by a complete nobody, what should have been at least an interesting affair ended up a mix of boring and frustrating. Whatta western trip this is turning out to be, eh? Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– Nick Schmaltz was a healthy scratch for this game, which apparently is him being sent to his room to think about what he did for not trying hard enough recently. This was defended on Twitter most notably by Mark Lazerus who said it was part of Quenneville’s “meritocracy” this year (the subject of a recent article) but that is complete bullshit. This team is a meritocracy only when the autocrat decides to pretend it is. Exhibit A: Brandon Manning still playing regular minutes. Yes, Manning has been benched before but he’s remained dreadful even AFTER multiple benchings, so how could this be a meritocracy if he’s still in the lineup? A lack of defensive depth perhaps, whereas there are more forwards to take Schmaltz’s place while he learns his lesson? Not so fast, my frent. Andreas Martinsen replaced Schmaltz tonight, and Chris Kunitz is our other depth guy. How’s that been working out? Oh, I can tell you: Martinsen had a 45.8 CF% and took a dipshit offensive zone penalty by flattening Mikko Koskinen which led directly to the second goal. I’m not saying the Nick Schmaltz would have been the game-changing factor here or that playing him means the Hawks would have won (it wouldn’t, they would have lost anyway), but he’s already been moved to a third-line winger which is not where he belongs or clearly where he feels most comfortable, and then Q is surprised/angry that he’s demoralized and not playing well? Ah yes, let’s teach this youngin’ a lesson and meanwhile Andreas Martinsen brings GRITHEARTFART go fuck yourself, Q.

– The other stupid and frustrating part of tonight was the Hawks getting shut out by a guy playing in his sixth NHL game. And that’s not his sixth because he just broke into the league; he was last in the NHL seven fucking years ago with the Islanders. And no, he hasn’t been any good anywhere, so of course he’s going to stand on his head for the Hawks and deny Saad multiple chances, Toews with a shorthanded try in the second…really too many to list. The Hawks had 40 shots on goal and this random fuckstick stopped all of them. Typical.

– Back to the woeful defense, I’ve been hoping and occasionally saying that Brandon “Too Many Brandons” Davidson is a workable replacement for Manning or Rutta, but after getting a misconduct during Darnell Nurse‘s meltdown that’s unlikely to ever happen. It’s too bad because Davidson had a 60.9 CF% and two shots on goal, but knowing Q it’ll all be for naught and he’ll be banished to the land of wind and ghosts.

– Cam Ward shouldn’t be blamed for this loss—it was definitely a team effort—but he threw an .862 SV% which we know just won’t work. In the first he actually kept the Hawks in it, particularly mid-way through the period when the Oilers had sustained pressure. But as soon as the second period kicked off, he let one in the five hole via Drake Caggiula. The short-handed goal, also by fucking Caligula in the third, wasn’t really his fault as it was just a breakdown by all the Hawks, but at least two can be pinned on Ward tonight. And it’s just annoying that it always feels like a matter of time with this guy. He holds up for a while, even against the top two Oilers lines, but eventually a good offense breaks him down, with help from the rest of the Hawks also imploding.

With two ugly losses on back-to-back nights, the Hawks as a whole need to sit in time out and think about what they did, and I can only hide behind my couch watching what the lineup and line changes are going to be for Saturday. It’s going to be a long plane ride home when this is all over. Onward and upward.

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Angry At Numbers: The Mirage Of Artem Anisimov

By Sam Fels 1655 0

We’re still in the “small sample size” portion of the season, so everything that follows comes with whatever sized-asterisk you feel you’re up to today. Anyway, let’s get nerdy:

5, 2

I’m sure these are the numbers that the coaches would point to as a way to illustrate why Artem Anisimov has to play center for Patrick Kane instead of Nick Schmaltz. The first is the number of goals for the Hawks with Kane and Anisimov together. The second is the number with Kane and Schmaltz, and the latter pairing have almost double the time of the former. In most hockey coaches’ worlds, the results are the results and speak for all.

Except this would ignore every other indicator that shows Anisimov is holding Kane back.

What I’m sure the coaches are also paying attention to is that Schmaltz has been a defensive liability at center, and that’s pretty much always been the case, no matter what takeaway stats they make up. And yes, Kane and Anisimov do give up slightly less together than Schmaltz and Kane did. Attempts per 60 against goes from 62.7 to 57.6, and scoring chances go from 37.0 to 27.2. The first one isn’t that significant and is still bad. Obviously the second number is one that you would notice. The high-danger chances drop as well.

Still, the big number in this discussion is that when Schmaltz and Kane have been on the ice together, the team’s shooting-percentage is 4.2%. Whereas with Anisimov it’s 17.8%. And the downtick in chances and attempts against can be partly explained by the fact that Anisimov and Kane take 85% of their draws in the offensive zone, while Schmaltz and Kane were taking a still aggressively high 74%.

It feels like no matter what you’re doing here, you’re asking this line to outscore its problems, which it pretty much always will with Kane on the ice. And he and Schmaltz just create more chances together. I’ll buy that keeping Schmaltz on the third line spreads out some scoring, especially if Saad can continue to look as good as he has lately. Still, Arty is an obelisk and there could be so much more.

11.64

Speaking of Kane, no matter who he has been on the ice with, he is letting fly with the puck far more than he ever has. That’s his shots per 60 minutes at even-strength, which would dwarf his career-high by over two shots per 60 were it to continue. His 16.2% shooting-percentage certainly dovetails nicely with that, though unlikely to continue. Overall, Kane is averaging just at tick below five shots per game, which is basically Ovechkin territory. If Kane were just to hit his career SH% mark with this level of shot-taking, he’d end up with 48 goals, two more than his MVP season.

All of his individual peripherals are way up this year too, such as attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, given what we’ve seen, all of the defensive metrics when he’s on the ice are higher as well. Basically, everything is happening when he’s on the ice. Kane has spent a decent portion of time with defensively helpless Schmaltz or Fortin, and they immovable Anisimov. Behind him it’s mostly been Brent Seabrook and Erik Gustafsson, and we know their limitations.

I wouldn’t chalk this up to anything more than the entire team’s nebulous relationship with defense right now, combined with the league’s openness as a whole so far this year, more than Kane giving even less of a shit on one end of the ice than normal. And frankly, I’ll take more high-event hockey with him on the ice, because he’s almost certainly going to outdo whatever the opposition can come up with when it comes to the bottom line, which is goals.

.920, .927

That’s the even-strength save-percentages of Cam Ward and Corey Crawford. Really not all that different, and the Hawks have gotten more out of Ward than we all feared to this point. Interestingly, the difference between their SV% and their expected SV%s, is 0.91 and 0.87, with Ward’s being the higher. So the Hawks are getting plus-goaltending. More encouragingly is neither number is higher than half of what Crawford’s difference was last year, and that was merely to keep the Hawks barely hanging onto a playoff place for half of a season. As you would expect, John Gibson, Pekka Rinne, and Antti Raanta are the leaders in this category, and they’re up over 2% difference. So it’s at least not as bad as last year. Yet.

Everything Else

It’s Not a Cage if You’re Feeling Like a Resident – Hawks 1, Coyotes 4

By Rose Rankin 2108 0

You don’t need me to tell you what was important about tonight—but I will anyway, it was Corey Crawford coming back. And despite what the score was, he looked just fine. It was the usual suspects being the pieces of crap that they are that led to the loss, but you don’t need me to tell you that, either. To the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

–After goal-a-thons in recent games tonight’s effort seemed rather anemic on offense. This could have easily been at least 2-0 Hawks at the end of the first, had it not been for Fortnite’s total lack of finish. Kane set him up beautifully multiple times, but to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him demoted back down to the third or fourth line after tonight’s performance (although it’s just as likely Q loves him and will keep him on the second line, so who knows). A poorly timed post by Schmaltz in the second period was another example of the Hawks being snake-bitten.

–Don’t take that to mean that there was no plain ‘ole incompetence tonight—that would be far too generous. Back to Nick Schmaltz, he had a pretty shitty game, to be perfectly honest. Yeah, his CF% ended up being 52.9, but that was a rebound from the mid-30s he had going in the first period, and he pulled his classic pass-when-he-should-shoot early in the third, which basically wasted a huge amount of time and space that could have been a good opportunity.

–But the real tale of woe here is Brandon Manning and Chris Kunitz and how horrible they truly are. We’ve already beaten this dead horse that they suck, but it’s hard to overstate just how much. Even with the aforementioned anemic offense, this game would have been tied at 1 (at worst), had it not been for Manning completely misplaying a 2-on-1 in the first and hanging Crawford out to dry, and had Kunitz not made a shitty, stupid pass attempt late in the third that Clayton Keller (GET A FIRST NAME, ASSHOLE) picked off and scored on to basically put the game out of reach. So after not being able to score a 5-on-5 goal yet this season, the fucking Coyotes found their even-strength mojo thanks to our useless clods who Quenneville refuses to sit, despite the availability of Brandon Davidson, Victor Ejdsell, and ANYONE ELSE FROM ROCKFORD AT THIS POINT.

–Alright, enough of what sucked. The silver lining was that really Crawford looked pretty good. Sure, there were a couple saves where he just barely got a toe on the puck, and in the second there was a terrifying moment where he half-somersaulted out of the crease and I held my head in my hands like I was trying to protect his brain by steadying my own, but all in all he was solid. That includes some great point-blank saves like the one he had on Grabner in the third, which at that point kept it a one-goal game (till Kunitz shat the bed). I’m guessing it’ll take a little while for him to be fully comfortable, and there’s always the chance he’ll regress after dealing with contact or other unforseen issues, but for a first outing after 10 months, this was a very good sign.

–You know who else had a good game? Erik Gustafsson. That’s not a huge shock as he’s been generally playing well, but tonight he had the lone goal after textbook passing from Toews and Top Cat during a 4-on-4 stint, and he made two huge shot blocks to bail out Crawford in the first and second periods.

–I can’t be mad about Raanta having a good game. And when Hjalmarsson was getting misty-eyed after his ovation I was basically at the point of yelling I’M NOT CRYING, YOU’RE CRYING at the tv. And I can’t be mad about Our Cousin Vinny scoring two goals either. I want to be mad because this loss is extremely aggravating, but of course it’s these guys who I can’t hate.

So the Hawks were dealt their first regulation loss of the season, and to the fucking Coyotes (did I already complain and call them that? I did, didn’t I?). It was bound to happen at some point, but the fact that it came at the hands of The Team of Hawks Rejects and on the night Crow finally came back makes it all the more painful. There are still positives to walk away with, though, and with a barrage of games coming up that’s what we’ll do. Onward and upward.

Beer: Lagunitas Sumpin’ Easy Ale

Line of the Night: “Good players get a stick on it.” –Steve Konroyd, throwing shade at Alexandre Fortin after he missed yet another great pass from Kane 

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Game #4 – Ain’t No Particular Sign I’m More Compatible With – Hawks 3, Wild 3 (Wild Purify Themselves in the Waters of Lake Minnetonka)

By John Pullega 2071 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

We all whined and moaned about how the Hawks didn’t give us enough hockey last year. They’re making us whole now, with their fourth straight OT game and point. Let’s kick it.

– Reports of Jonathan Toews’s death were wildly exaggerated. As he’s been wont to do this year, Toews took the bull by the balls in the first period and looked like the kind of guy they build statues for. His assist on the first goal was one of the first times we’ve gotten to see the kind of Old Man Strength Marian Hossa used to put on display, and it looked good on The Captain. His awareness and speed gobbling up the rebound on Top Cat’s blocked shot and passing off to DA BIG KAHUNA gave him his second point of the night. You’d think that he can’t do this all year, but barring injury, I don’t know that there’s any reason he can’t. He’s playing like he has something to prove, and we should relish it.

– Congrats to Dominik Kahun on his first NHL goal. It’s hard enough to get one over the shoulder from the angle he had on it, and it’s doubly hard when the goaltender is an actual giant, but he kept his cool throughout. Kahun has impressed so far on the top line, and he led all Blackhawks with a 56+ CF%. It’s still too early to tell whether this is going to be a thing going forward, but Da Big Kahuna has handled the pressure as well as you can ask.

– Thank Christ Alex DeBrincat is 5’7”. For all the guys who have ever had a really nice girl lie to them about how size doesn’t matter, you now have someone tangible to point to. His one timer on the PP was gorgeous, but perhaps even more impressive was how stout he was with the puck. Since coming up last year, DeBrincat has had a penchant for either not turning the puck over, or, on the rare occasion that he does, turning around and picking it right back up. It’s one of the less talked about aspects of his game, but DeBrincat’s ability to cause turnovers is sometimes otherworldly. Motherfucker is special and can probably score 40 goals with Toews this year.

– One last totally positive note: Nick Schmaltz’s stickhandling was divine tonight. The fancy stats won’t back it up, but Schmaltz was everywhere. Late in the first, Schmaltz walked the blue line through Jan Rutta after Rutta’s puck allergy flared up, which turned into a one timer for Schmaltz after he passed it off to Patrick Kane, who mostly couldn’t be bothered tonight. Schmaltz also had an A+ chance in the second on the PP, but got stuffed by Devan Dubnyk and his stupidly spelled name. And in the OT, after looking like he was going to fumble the puck away, he managed to pry it back in the offensive zone at the end of his shift. He may not have had any tallies, but this was a good-looking game for him.

– It’s hard to blame Cam Ward for tonight. The Hawks posted a fucking 39+ CF% on the night. That’s really hard to do. The first goal was the result of Jan Rutta having his legs cut out under him and a no call. The second resulted from a behind-the-net pass from Eric Staal, followed by Chris Kunitz pondering the great mysteries of life for the first and most inopportune time of his life. You can maybe give him some of the blame on the third goal, but again, it’s hard to get mad at a goalie for giving up a goal that started from behind the net. Cam Ward should never have to face 40+ shots, but given that he did, he did much better than anyone could have predicted.

– Brandon Saad was a little more noticeable for the right reasons tonight. He had at least two high-quality chances that he couldn’t pot, and his possession numbers were garbage (38+ CF%), but there was a little more life to him.

–  Henri Jokiharju. We love him. He’s going to be excellent. He was excellent tonight, relatively speaking, and flashed a ton of confidence throughout most of the game. He’s probably going to be looked at as the at-fault defenseman on the Wild’s game-tying goal on the short hand, but this is the kind of stuff we’ve been warning people about. He’s 19, so he’s going to get overpowered at times. You take the bad with all the good.

– If we’re going to be subjected to Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta, tonight is probably the best example of how to turn shit into a shingle. They played strictly as a third pairing, and neither of them made any horribly egregious errors (other than, you know, playing professional hockey instead of working a 9–5. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED). As much as I want to fault Manning for skating too far up on the wrong side of the ice in an attempt to clear right before the Wild’s first goal, if Rutta gets the tripping call he deserved, it’s a load of nothing.

If anyone had told you the Hawks would capture six of their first eight points, you’d ask for a dose of whatever they were taking. It looks like this team is going to be exciting if nothing else.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “I thought that pass was purrrrrrfect to The Cat.” –Eddie O. on Top Cat’s PP goal.