Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Phillies: Could Have Been More, Could Have Been Less, So It’s This

By Sam Fels 1192 0

Game 1 Box Score: Phillies 5, Cubs 4

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 3, Phillies 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 8, Phillies 4

Game 4 Box Score: Phillies 9, Cubs 7

The Cubs should have won on Monday, but didn’t. The Phillies should have won on Tuesday, but didn’t. And each scored over eight runs in their other wins, so a split is just about right. In the words of Gennaro Gattuso, “Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.” And considering these are two of the three first-place teams in the NL, splitting seems about right that way as well. And because everyone else in the NL East is intent on doing a damn fine Mets impression, or is the Mets, you get the feeling the Cubs and Phils might do this more than a few times more before the boxes are packed. Let’s clean it all up.

The Two Obs

-The big story of the series is the bullpen, and I suppose that’s only right. Darvish was a touch unlucky to give up three runs over six, and I thought Brad Brach was a touch unlucky to give up a run in the ninth. Segura fists one over the head of Rizzo, and that seemed to be the theme for the rest of the series. The Cubs seemed to get their fair share of BABIP Kung Fu treachery all series. Kintzler got a grounder from McCutchen in the second game, it just happened to find a hole. Happened again today too.

Still, the pen gave up runs in all four games, though the last two it was asked to go for five full innings. Chatwood took all of them yesterday, so two runs over five innings is fine for one pitcher. For some reason it’s not fine for multiple, and I thought Not John Wick was Kung Fu Treachery’d as well today for one of the runs.

We all know that the return of Pedro Strop isn’t going to fix anything, especially because he won’t be used anywhere but the 9th. Moves will have to be made. So let’s not harp on it.

-While we’re on the pen, Carl Edwards needs to drop the slide-step. He’s not Pedro Strop, who can control it. He struck out the side today, so it seems odd to nitpick. But his velocity drops when he uses it, which he was with no one on base today for some reason. He also loses most of his pitches high to arm-side because his arm can’t catch up. For someone who has such trouble repeating his delivery, just have him worry about one.

-Lester’s last two starts comprise 8.1 innings and nine runs, 17 hits. There’s going to be market corrections like this, because Lester is giving up an obscene amount of hard contact. 41% to be exact. He’s been able to raise his Ks and lower his walks, and up his grounders, but he’s going to have to find a way to limit the loud noises he’s surrendering. It was thunderous today. A quarter of the contact today was line-drives, half in the air, and with the wind blowing out that’s a problem.

-The Cubs have been through a dicey turn of the rotation, and they went 3-3. Hendricks was iffy on Sunday, with Lester iffy the day before that. Darvish and Quintana were good, but Hamels and Lester were not. You’ll take breaking even when you didn’t break even on good starts.

-The War Bear has four hits in his last two games, eight in his last seven, and has been on base 11 times in that stretch. Nothing definitive yet, but the start of something?

-Almora took the plaudits last night, as he should, but when he came up with the bases loaded today you kind of knew it had to be a soft grounder. Even in this upturn in May, he’s still nearly at 60% grounders. You can’t find success that way.

-Javy sure made it look easy, didn’t he? If he’d got backspin instead of topspin on that ball in the 8th today, the Cubs probably tie it.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

So…Is This Cubs Thing Real?

By Sam Fels 1471 0

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Brewers: A Little Bit Of Shine

By Sam Fels 1342 0

Game 1 Box Score: Brewers 7, Cubs 0

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 2, Brewers 1

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Brewers 1

There are no statement games in May. There are no statement games at all, really. And if the Cubs hadn’t won this series, they still would have flown out winning 11 of their last 14. But that wanting every nail they could get is something they talked about after last season. Getting that last win of a homestand. Finding a way to win a series even when your team leader is laid up, and it’s cold and wet. Deciding that a 8-2 homestand isn’t just better than 7-3, but it’s mandatory. Just a little more killer instinct, even with an off day waiting. That’s what the Cubs want you to believe is the difference from last year. So far, so good.

The Two Obs

-We’re not long enough into this to see how the bullpen having basically no one you trust left, we got a glimpse on Friday. No, the Cubs didn’t score, which is infuriating because I’m sure Gio Gonzalez has nothing out there. But a winnable game turned into a goner when anyone came out of the pen, and it won’t be the last time that happens. I definitely don’t need more Kyle Ryan in my life.

-And of course, they turn that right around, with six relievers before they even got to Chatwood, who managed to look good, then look bad, and then find it again to get through four innings. I’m not ready to declare Chatwood an actual weapon yet, far from it, but again, the options that he and Montgomery would give the Cubs if they wanted to use them are pretty exciting. It would be a way to cover for this pen that’s short right now, by having them go two or three innings to close out games straight from a starter. If they could each do that once a week, that might be enough to shield this pen until Strop returns and additions are made.

–Brandon Kintzler is an example of just how random and weird relieves can be. He’s been good before, he definitely wasn’t last year, and now he’s probably the best arm out of the pen. Simply because.

–Kris Bryant. Good.

-Boy, Kyle Schwarber sure did walk a lot. Hopefully a binge starts with him getting on base a lot. Bryant can’t carry them forever, everyone else has had their turn, it needs to be Schwarber’s soon.

-Hamels’s contact numbers are insanely good right now. He’s getting the most grounders of his career, he’s barely giving up any line drives, and his hard contact rate is 10% lower than it was last year. He’s doing it through a lot of fastballs, and we’ll have to look at this more in-depth this week.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Three Of Four From Marlins: Fish In A Barrel

By Sam Fels 1364 0

Game 1 Box Score: Marlins 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 5, Marlins 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 3, Marlins 2 (11)

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 4, Marlins 1

If I were truly miserable and wanting to pawn that off on the rest of the world to dissipate my pain, I would complain about the Cubs not sweeping this sad sack outfit. But hey, they’ve gone 6-1 against this excuse to siphon public funds, and after sweeping the Cardinals you’re probably allowed one hiccup. 6-1 on the homestand will definitely play. Let’s wrap it up.

The Two Obs

-There is some worry right at the top. Pedro Strop’s injury, which is going to take a few weeks, leaves the Cubs even more shorthanded in the pen. It also leaves them without a for-sure strikeout option. Don’t worry about not having a closer, as the Cubs can finally just match it up in the late innings which they should have been doing anyway. But unless Carl Edwards Jr. finds it, there is no one out of the pen who can get through an inning without any contact. The Cubs have survived the past two games, and a big thank you to Mike Montgomery, but this is a AAA lineup they were facing at best. There are much bigger challenges and outs to get coming, and the Cubs have no sure thing to get them right now. And the answers to those are probably as far away as Strop’s recovery. Teams don’t make trades in May, but the Cubs might have to find a way.

-Secondly, this is Strop’s second hammy injury in two seasons, and you have to be a touch worried this is just going to be a thing that keeps happening. And he’s as close to indispensable as they have.

-Anyway, good thing Kris Bryant has gone plaid lately, because some of the other pistons in the offensive engine have gone…well, whatever pistons go that’s bad. I’m not a car guy. Bote is hitting .196 the last two weeks. Schwarber has one extra-base hit in a week. Heyward is 2-for-his-last-24. But hey, this is how it’s supposed to go. One part goes down, the other goes up. Hey, that’s kind of like pistons!

-They’re going to have to lower beer prices at Wrigley when Yu Darvish pitches. I can’t afford to drink at that pace. It’s the same thing we’ve talked about before, where he’s trying to be too perfect and is afraid of any contact on his pitches. He had a plethora of hitters down 0-2 or 1-2 but wouldn’t come anywhere near the plate. This isn’t about injury. Darvish has come back from a long absence before. It’s not about ability, because he’s never been this wild before. It’s in his head. But they’re still winning his starts, and winning around them, and have bought him time to figure it out. The Cubs haven’t needed him yet. They will though.

-But Montgomery gives them some options. So does Chatwood. They may have to keep one always in reserve to piggyback on Darvish. But this would be the way to mask your holes in the pen, wouldn’t it? Just have Chatwood or Monty throw a couple or three innings and keeping everyone else to a couple innings a week? That’s a solution. It’s worth trying I think.

-The Brewers have moved into second place. They move in here tomorrow. Maybe time to stamp some authority on this bitch.

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Mariners: Stop Playing Pearl Jam

By Sam Fels 1948 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Mariners 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 11, Mariners 0

The thing is I like Pearl Jam. It’s like this..

They’re fine. And I get that Eddie Vedder has nominated himself the #1 Cubs fan forever, even though he doesn’t know who Steely Dan is according to his own goddamn documentary (not that he should, but if you’re going to be music’s self-appointed ambassador, you’d better). But if you’re in Seattle and you’re going to make a big deal of your intro and outro music, try someone else. Off the top of my head I can name a dozen better Seattle bands:

Nirvana, Soundgarde, Dinosaur Jr. Screaming Trees. Green River, Mother Love Bone, Alice In Chains, Mad Season, Mudhoney, Sunny Day Real Estate, Heart, the Sonics. There, done. Try any of them. Honestly.

Oh right… the baseball…

The Two Obs

-Here’s something I like. With Jason Heyward and Willson Contreras cooling off just a bit, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have arrived. Bryant might not have enough to show for it, but last night he managed four balls with an exit velocity over 100 MPH, and Rizzo added two homers in two games, including a big one last night. And let’s not forget The War Bear, who has hit .381 the last week and won Tuesday’s game with a homer that turned the baseball oblong. If the thunder don’t get ya the lightning will.

-It’s been overshadowed by his injury absence, but the Cubs are getting serious work from Jon Lester. He’s got a WHIP of 0.96 on the year. So far this season he’s eschewed his four-seamer for more cutters and more change-ups, and if these are the results I’m here for it.

-You still can’t trust this pen as far as you could throw it collectively, but I’m hoping that just one day off after whatever that was on Sunday just wasn’t quite enough. But then I also think that Brad Brach just sucks, so here we are. I hold out some hope that Brandon Kintzler has some use, and he did get a seriously needed double-play last night. But he also served up one to Edwin Encarnacion that landed somewhere near Victoria.

-Cole Hamels had to get too many outs, and two earned over 5.2 innings should be enough normally. He wasn’t hit all that hard so we’ll just let it pass.

-Good lord are the Mariners helpless defensively. In my shitty high school league the first thing our coach told us was, “Get the ball in play. In this league, amazing things will happen.” That’s the same for the Mariners. We said it in the preview but Encarnacion and Santana should be DHs and Bruce probably should too. But because Dan Vogelbach would probably just eat his glove, they all have to play in the field. This could be a pretty good offense and if King Felix can at least be competent it’s not a hopeless rotation, but they’re going nowhere because they’re never going to catch the ball.

-I will take anything I can get when it comes to Dillon Maples, and striking out the side in the 9th in an 11-0 game is still that. Encarnacion was diving out of the way of strikes. So was everyone else. If he could ever just keep his fastball in the zip code, he’s the doomsday device out of the pen we’ve wanted. Seriously, he could be Josh Hader from last year, if his control wasn’t a Pollock painting.

-I guess that was Javy’s response to being asked if he wants to give up shortstop.

Onwards…

 

–

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: And There Was Much Rejoicing

By Sam Fels 1405 0

A series win. A very good start. These things were late to the party for the Cubs this season, but they’re here now. And while most of Cubdom seems intent on bending and turning and balancing to tear down the wins, the Cubs put up 10 runs on a very good starter in Jameson Taillon, survived what is a pretty good Pirates staff for two wins. If you thought they were going to get all the games back to .500 at once, I hate to explain how things work. It’s a process.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Jose Quintana said he wanted to use his change-up more. We didn’t see that in Milwaukee, partly because he wasn’t around long enough and when he was he was mostly turning around to look in the distance. He threw 13 of them tonight, which was more than 10% of his offerings, he got six swings and four whiffs from it. Very encouraging. Of course, everything was working tonight. Dotting his fastball, getting the curve over. I suppose the real test is when something isn’t working. But hey, this is a good step.

-The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game and Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, haven’t really done dick. That’s encouraging.

-Kyle Schwarber has struck out in seven of his last eight ABs, which is less than encouraging. He’s getting pelted with breaking pitches, and he’s going over the top of them pretty much every time. That’s fine with lefties, but is less so when it comes from righties as it has the past two nights. But hey, it’s just a stretch of three games. Let’s not go nuts here.

-Len and JD were mentioning on the broadcast how much more Jason Heyward is using his legs in his swing. It’s quite apparent. Maybe that’s a real change.

-Cishek has appeared in half of the Cubs games, so at least we’re still on that pace. He should be dust by Labor Day.

-Something has been made about the Cubs’ pen scoreless streak, but to me it’s kind of horseshit because they did let inherited runners score last night. Earned runs for relievers is always something a bit misleading. And when they took the lead Monday to the wire, they had a touchdown lead at least to work with. Not that that’s stopped them from self-immolating before. Mighty oaks from little acorns, I guess.

-I think Joe Maddon was just cold.

Onwards…