Everything Else

My Realization, Q’s Realization, And All Seven And We’ll Watch Them Fall

By Sam Fels 2039 0

Halfway through the preseason, and it’s taken me that and months–perhaps even a year or more–to realize what bothers me so much about whatever “the plan,” the Hawks have here. What can I say? I’m a slow learner, runner, and just about everything else.

Perhaps it’s the surprise at just how little buzz I or anyone else feels just more than a week out from the season starting. From Crawford’s injury to the lack of activity over the summer that would rise above a beer belch, to Connor Murphy’s injury and whatever else, it seems the only thoughts we give the Hawks right now are which tickets we’re going to sell and just how bad they might be. It’s not exactly greeting the season with glee and a hug.

And this weekend, I finally figured out why, at least for myself. All summer, and really last year as well when the Hawks failed to do anything to improve their lot in life (which would have been folly anyway), the line from Madison St. was that the Hawks wanted to keep their powder dry because they had to sign Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat to long-term extensions and there were other kids they were excited about.

And I started to play that out in my head. And I’m sure next summer sees both of those players get their new contracts. And this season we’ll find out whatever Henri Jokiharju is, maybe. Adam Boqvist has already shown what he could possibly do. There’s Ian Mitchell at Denver. And I guess I get it.

But locking in all those players just locks in the team already have. And that team is already not good enough to do anything anyone’s going to write poetry about. The Hawks are basically holding out to keep this team that will barely scratch out a playoff place if everything goes right. They’re afraid of breaking THAT team up, not the one that actually did do things people wrote things about in a lyrical fashion, because it’s already gone. And I’m not convinced they know the difference.

Because as much as we love Schmaltz and Top Cat, they’re probably second-line players. Maybe Top Cat maxes out as a top-line winger. Maybe if Schmaltz absolutely balls out he’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. But as we’ve seen with RNH, he’s a #2 center on a team that wants to do anything of note.

Maybe two years down the line Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist have completely transformed the blue line, and maybe that’s good enough to make up for the forward corps deficiencies. Maybe. But how big are those deficiencies when Toews is 34 and Kane is 33? What is Keith at that point?

Nowhere in the pipeline is a true #1 center. We don’t even really know if there’s a #1 defenseman, though at least they can hope on a couple guys. You can’t win without those things. Maybe Collin Delia is a future #1 goalie? How many years is that away?

You can get those types of players through any fashion, of course. The Hawks likely won’t be able to draft one because they’ll never be bad enough to really be in the running for a top-three pick unless the bottom falls out in a way we can’t predict or the balls bounce in a freakish (read: rigged) way. They don’t have the mustard to trade for one, or so it seems.

But there were two franchise-turning players available this summer. The Hawks wouldn’t even put themselves in the room with them. Or maybe they couldn’t. They sure seemed to want everyone to know they weren’t after John Tavares or Erik Karlsson. How often do those types of players become available as the finished product? Why would you not at least attempt to see what it would take? Why would you choose the unknown over the known?

Look at the Bears and Khalil Mack. He’s the finished article. There are no questions. When a generational talent is out there, you go get him. Suddenly, the Sharks are West favorites. Worry about your “possibles” tomorrow. Today is for “definites.” What’s the plan for the Hawks to get those types of players? Is it bottoming out? Sure doesn’t seem like it. It’s not signing one, clearly. It’s not trading for one, clearly. So what’s the plan?

Right now it looks like the Hawks have a plan to build a team that’s a 6th-seed at best for a few years. Boy that’s exciting.

-When Q first started hinting that he was not ruling out Boqvist making the team straight-up, because I’m a cynical sort I thought it was just another thumbed-nose at his GM Stan Bowman. He’s done it before. “Oh, Stan wants this young d-man in Jokiharju to make the team so I’m gonna choose another one BECAUSE I’M JUST THAT SMART.”

But the more I thought it over, the more I want to think that Quenneville just sees the way the league is going and how teams are going to have to be built. We’re not far away from the stay-at-home, conservative blue-liner going the way of Gimbels. Some point soon, teams are just going to dress six or seven d-men who can all move and all play with the puck and make their teams play faster. It’s the only way to counter more and more forward groups that are entirely made up of racing bikes.

I’d like to think Q knows this, and I’d like to think he knows that he really only has Gustafsson and Keith on a good day who can do that. There’s always room for more speed, and whatever the big problems Boqvist might have at the top level he can move and he can play with the puck. He can get the Hawks out of trouble himself. And they need more of it, wherever they can get it and whatever form it comes in.

Which is one reason I’d like to see the Hawks dress seven d-men most nights. First off, they don’t have 12 forwards. Andreas Martinsen or John Hayden or David Kampf or Matthew Highmore will be flanking Marcus Kruger, and no one’s going to give a flying fornication if they only have to use one of them. Meanwhile, when Murphy returns healthy it opens up a spot for another d-man, and while it’s not saying much they’re at least of higher quality than whatever is pretending to be a fourth-line winger right now.

It provides more shelter for Jokiharju. It gives you more flexibility to go offensive or defensive when the situation calls.

The real point is that extra forward spot can be used to give any of Saad, Kane, Top Cat, Schmaltz, Sikura, an extra few shifts per game. Even Toews with Kruger playing wing for a spot. It’s akin to batting your best hitter 2nd. Over a full season that extra ABs add up. Those extra shifts would add up. And really, games and standings can be decided on a handful of goals here or there. Why wouldn’t you give your best players more chances to get them? An extra two or three shifts a night isn’t going to paralyze anyone for a season.

This won’t happen of course, because the Hawks dressed seven d-men once last year and they gave up a touchdown to the Devils. But the case is right there for it.

Everything Else

Blackhawks Open Camp, Are Covered In Puke Within 10 Minutes

By Sam Fels 3226 0

People, as I’ve shared in the past, I used to be a comedian. And never, in my seven to eight years of dedicating my life to trying to write stuff to make people laugh, did I ever come anywhere close to anything as absurd and uproarious as the opening hour of Blackhawks training camp this morning. Yes, I use the featured photo a lot, but you sum it up better than that!

Where to even fucking start? So yesterday, company and television stooge Pat Boyle “reported” that Corey Crawford would hit the ice today. He didn’t say in what capacity, if he was just going to check that he in fact can still skate at all, or would be just touching up the logos painted under the surface. This was clearly the Hawks attempt at…

So Crow did actually hit the ice, and he did actually practice…just by himself. Which is…something? I mean it’s better than nothing. It’s on the road to full participation, it’s just that no one has any idea how long that road is. But hey, he’s alive and he’s wearing gear and that’s like, a step forward from where we’ve been. Maybe. Unless he disappears again tomorrow and/or this was all for show. Good stuff, really.

Oh, but it gets so much better.

Right about the time the Hawks were hitting the ice as a team, it was announced that Connor Murphy is going to miss two months with a back injury. TWO MONTHS. BACK INJURY. Let’s try and unpack this all, because it’s a fucking ton and ain’t none of it good.

So, this summer, Stan Bowman hoarded all of his “assets,” such as they are, and decided against upgrading a blue line that was rat semen anyway, because the Hawks are terrified of what they have to pay Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat in the next two years (no really, that’s the reason). Except there’s no fucking chance Murphy showed up today and said, “Hey I think my back is fucked up.” For it to be a two month thing, they have to have known about it for a while, and still elected to present you with Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta. TICKETS TO THE HOME OPENER STILL AVAILABLE, PEOPLE!

So essentially, what the Hawks are telling you while hoping you don’t notice their lips are moving, is that they know they’re going to be a dungheap this season. Because if you thought you had a chance at being anything, you wouldn’t just toss your hands up at the news that your most consistent d-man of last year was going to be out until December basically, yelling, “Dems da breaks!”

Going further, you wouldn’t do that if your thought your team has any hope of being anything other than a representation of sadness and confusion in watercolor because back injuries of this significance to a player who is, y’know, 6-FOOT-FUCKING-5, have a tendency to be career-altering, if not debilitating. That’s a major, major problem that the Hawks thought they could just sneak by you.

Oh, and Brent Seabrook is going to miss a week with an “abdominal injury,” which simply just has to be a really unruly burrito.

The capper of course is that at the first practice Chris Kunitz was skating with Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat, which couldn’t be a more Quenneville moment unless it came with a bottle of wine, a Whalers jersey, and a mustache painted on the ice. TICKETS STILL AVAILABLE

If there’s a silver lining to all of this, and there isn’t, basically Quenneville is going to be forced into giving Henri Jokiharju a long look because there ain’t shit on shit else. And he was already skating with Keith today, so fuck it, let’s ride that snake as far as it’ll go and figure out the rest later. Or never. Probably never.

So just to review, when the Hawks open the season, your pairings could be a declining Keith with a 19-year-old the coach will hate, Sbarro and Jan Rutta, and The Guy Worse Than Radko Gudas next to Cowboy Gustafsson.

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brent Seabrook

By Adam Hess 2331 0

While he has one of the worst contracts in hockey, Brent Seabrook showed last season that while he is definitely not worth the ridiculous cap hit (and please lets not think about how long is left on it), he really isn’t bad either.

2017-18 Stats

81 GP – 7 G – 19 A

51.55 CF% – 55.58 oZS%

20:12 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: In a cap league with small revenue (relative to other sports) like the NHL, there are only a few defensemen worth nearly $7-million annually, and Nacho is not one of them. But he can still be useful, if effectively utilized, and Q started to do that a bit more last year. With a 51.55 CF% at 5v5 last year, Seabrook at least kept his team on offense more often than not when he was on the ice. He also started almost 56% of his faceoff-started shifts in the offensive zone, and rightfully so. It doesn’t take a genius to watch Seabrook at this point in his career and see that what’s missing is the legs. That’s a huge problem in today’s NHL if you’re gonna go against top competition. But Seabrook’s vision, passing, and shot have always been better than he got credit for, and last year that became obvious. He can still whip the puck up the ice and make things happen offensively as long as he isn’t getting torched defensively. The vitriol for Seabrook among Hawks fans has ramped up in recent years, and myself and others at this site are probably not without fault in spurring some of that on. But in a 2017-18 that saw Jordan Oesterle play way too many meaningful minutes for this squad, it didn’t become too difficult to start to appreciate what was still left of Seabrook’s game.

It Was the Best of Times: Much like Murphy over the weekend, how good Seabrook can be this season will ultimately come down to the utilization. Seabrook can still flip the ice for you somewhat well against teams’ less potent attackers, so as long as Q doesn’t start sending him out there against the McDavids and Crosbys and players of that ilk, Seabrook still has a decent shot at a solid season, at least within the context of this team. I know that the podcast guys brought up the way Zdeno Chara has been utilized in Boston for a few years now in reference to how Keith can still be effective for the Hawks, but I think the same kind of deployment – against lesser competition, mind you – could be the key to Seabrook still being a fixture for this team. Let him play with Gustafsson or Forsling, someone fast who can jump into the rush while he floats back and just flips the puck back up the ice when necessary, and things should be fine. He should still get some solid PP time so he can still flirt with 25-30 points as well.

It Was the BLURST of Times: In the other reality, Quenneville sees that Seabrook can still do the passing and the shooting well on offense and decides to try to generate that against the McDavids and the Crosbys and players of that ilk. This would be disastrous. The speed is no longer there, and if Seabs is asked to play too many meaningful minutes against too much strong competition, those wheels might just fall off. Even the best scenario here might be overly optimistic due to what Seabrook has left in the tank at this point, so trying to over exert that is certainly going to end up being a terrible idea.

Prediction: Based on what we saw from Q’s usage of Seabrook later in the season last year, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that he starts the season on the bottom pair in a bum-slaying role, as long there are other blue-liners who can find a way to stick out in training camp. You still have the obvious guys above him in Murphy and Keith, and with Gustafsson, Jokiharju, Hillman, Forsling, Rutta, etc. all there as options to make the team as well, Q will have some options at his disposal that he can get creative with to avoid stretching Seabrook too thin. But rest assured, if things don’t immediately go smoothly, Q will go back to what he knows and you will see Seabrook on the ice against players much better than him, and bad things will happen when he does. I still think Seabs gets around 25 points on the season, and if he can be in the 51.5-52.5 CF% range I will be pleased with his season.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

By Adam Hess 2169 0

If you had Connor Murphy picked as a guy who would end up being the Hawks best defenseman last year, please raise your hand. If you’re lying, please raise your other hand. There should be no one with only one hand in the air. That may be a bit of a contentious statement, though. After being brought into town as the return for StanBo’s not-discussed-with-his-head-coach trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson, Murphy had a bit of an uphill battle in front of him. He had to prove to be worth the Hawks losing one of the best defensemen in team history (not that hot of a take on Hjammer and if you think it is you are wrong) while also serving a coach that saw that defenseman leave without any say in the matter. While he didn’t always pass the Q test, ultimately Murphy showed he can be building block for this team while playing meaningful minutes – if his coach lets him.

2017-18 Stats

76 GP – 2 G – 12 A

53.39 CF% – 49.71 oZS%

16:22 Avg TOI

A Brief History: The Murphy trade was one that was really hard to diagnose at first. For years in the desert it seemed like Murphy was always primed to take the next step but never really did (at least according to scouting reports I’ve seen since his acquisition). He had sky high potential (and in some ways still does) but we know that potential is an ever fickle bitch and she promises nothing. It was a major gamble on Stan’s part to bring him in and trust that he could be your new Seabrook, but his contract is favorable and the fact that he’s an RHD meant that if he ended up even slightly above average it could look fine. Murphy proved to be more than just fine, though with his shot share of 53.39 the 3rd best on the team among players who played at least 30 games. Only future Norris Trophy winner Erik Gustafsson and Michal Kempny (I cry at the mere mention of his name anymore) were above him. That will certainly play. On paper, Murphy doesn’t exactly look like someone you want on your top pair, but given the state of this team’s blue line and Duncan Keith’s descent into a shell of himself, Murphy looks like he could end up being the Hawks best blue liner yet again.

It Was The Best of Times: When you’re talking best-scenarios, there really is no limit to how optimistic you can be, and for a guy like me that’s really hard. “What’s Murphy’s best case scenario?” you ask me, and I say “He suddenly explodes and posts a 60 point season from the blue line and is a Norris candidate.” You should then proceed to look at me like I have four heads. In reality, the best case scenario for Murphy is that we get more of the same from him with slight improvements rather than a step back. He’s never eclipsed 20 points in his career, so even hoping any sort of scoring outbreak is on the horizon is misguided, but it may not be unrealistic to think that with more ice time he may be able to break the 20 barrier, and with some good fortune on his shots he can maybe touch 25. But he is now 25 years old so at this point he is what he is. Oh, and also best case scenario is that Q stops holding the Hjammer trade against Murphy, at least until he’s fired at Thanksgiving.

It Was The BLURST of Times: How extreme do we wanna be here? Obviously an injury would be awful. Basically anything that keeps Murphy out of the lineup will cripple this team like bad knees on a race horse. If Murphy is out, just take the team to the shed with a shotgun. Barring injury, I think the worst possible outcome for Murphy this year is that Q sticks around the whole year and never really trusts Murphy for more than bullshit second and third pair duty. Q will probably have to loosen his tether on Murphy a bit for this team to have any semblance of success early on, at least enough for the team not to fire him before Christmas, but in the event that Q holds Murphy to bottom pair shitwork, somehow this doesn’t crumble around him to the point of losing his job, and he continues to hold Murphy down, that would be bad news. Not necessarily because I just wanna see Murphy play the bigger role, but also because you’re gonna need him to do it for the next 4 years until Boqvist or Jokiharju are ready to do it, and if you can’t even trust him with this blueline, when will you?

Prediction: I’m bad at these parts, but ultimately I think Murphy can have a year similar to last year’s with some slight improvements. I’d say he hovers around 53.7-54 CF%, pots 5 goals, and adds at least 15 assists to get that 20 point mark for the first time ever. I also predict he will end up playing less minutes than Brent Seabrook in way too many games.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Everything Else

The More You Think About It, The More Joel Quenneville Is Doomed

By Sam Fels 2954 0

I know the folly of taking the Hawks at their word. Their pronouncements from on-high have gotten weirder and less sensical as the team’s fortunes have slipped, and even more so now that less and less people are paying any attention. This is an organization that still considers itself the cream of the NHL, and yet when it came time for the most coveted free agent in recent history to hit the market the Hawks weren’t anywhere close. To be fair, John Tavares wasn’t ever going to sign with the Hawks over the Leafs, if only on emotional reasons, but for the Hawks to not even to be in the room says a lot. And whether they’ll tell you this or not, they missed out on other targets too, though as we know the rest of those targets sucked and maybe the Hawks are lucky they didn’t have the cap space or the attraction. Ian Cole was not going to make you run to the closet and sweat through the beloved sweater in July in pride, to be sure.

Still, if we take the Hawks at anything resembling face value on what they say, which is that they will ring the changes if the Hawks don’t bounce back from last season’s what-have-ya, then it’s hard to see how Quenneville is going to survive the season. Again, that’s if you take them at face value, and I’m not here to tell you that you should.

While McDonough and Rocky have hit all the notes about last season being unacceptable, along with Stan Bowman, and McDonough has pulled his noted and solo trick of bullying his employees to let everyone know just how very red and angry he is, Stan Bowman has continued along a path of a “rebuild on the fly.” All of his quotes about what the Hawks are doing at least reference keeping powder dry for next contracts to Schmaltz and DeBrincat, and what he hopes for Sikura and Ejdsell and whoever else. He continues to push Forsling as a solution on the blue line, and as you saw at the draft they took the biggest project–though most talented player– available at that spot. The Hawks have steadfastly refused to discuss Saad or Schmaltz in a trade, keeping an eye on two or three years down the road when those players have to do the heavy lifting. Either they can’t and the Hawks will suck or they become something more and the Hawks will…only kind of suck.

Everything that’s been done has been with an eye on the future. You wouldn’t do that unless you had assurances from the higher-ups that you’ll be able to see the plan through, whatever that plan might be. If a GM was trying to sit on two chairs at once, building a team to at least be competitive if everything broke right at the moment while maintaining players and hope for the future, any team that fired said GM and brought in someone else to either tear it all up or carry out the same vision with a different set of eyes would be a team that didn’t actually have a plan or organization. That very well could be the Hawks, but they at least want you to think it’s not them.

Let’s put it this way, a GM truly on the hot seat and having his job dependent on what happens this year, and maybe even just the first half of this year, would probably act with just a touch more urgency than Cam Ward, Chris Kunitz, and Brandon Manning. Just a hunch.

So where does that leave Quenneville? We know the easiest lever to pull for any organization when things go pear-shaped is to fire the coach. Rarely does it have a huge effect, though there are examples of that, but it shows you’re doing SOMETHING. Even with a coach who draws as much water as Q. Sometimes it’s just rearranging the chairs, but sometimes it provides a lift to the players who can at least hear something different when they arrive at work.

And really, what’s Q going to do here? You forget that even before Corey Crawford went down last year, the Hawks were clinging to the last playoff spot or even the chase for that like it was a tiny crimp. They were barely .500. On Dec. 22nd, they were 17-12-5, tied with Calgary for the last playoff spot and fifth in the division. A juggernaut this was not. So if we get to Christmas again, even with a healthy Corey Crawford and one who can put up THOSE numbers after missing half of a season, and that’s where the Hawks are again is that enough? Barely scraping for the last playoff spot? You wouldn’t think so. And they could be worse than that. I can sit here and say right now there are three teams in the Central assuredly better than they are right now, and Colorado, Minnesota, and Dallas could very well be and the first two finished miles ahead of them last year. Even if the Hawks were running 4th in the Central at Christmas next season but entrenched in a wild card spot, is that enough? Is “wild card” synonymous with “One Goal?” It’s an improvement, barely, but it’s not a resurgence.

I mean… I guess the team ahead of Crawford is a little better than last year’s? It is if Schmaltz and DeBrincat take a step forward (and are deployed correctly). It is if Dylan Sikura is something more than just getting to play with Adam Gaudette in college, and/or EggShell’s AHL playoff performance portends to something more. It is if Brandon Manning isn’t just a thug, and if the Hawks can finally conjure something from Gustav Forsling or fit Jokiharju on the roster. But again, that’s a lot of ifs.

What’s more likely, all that happens or Jonathan Toews’s aging curve continues the wrong way, as does Duncan Keith’s? Brent Seabrook continues to move around like Pizza The Hut? Forsling and Gustafsson prove to be nothing more than third-pairing bum-slayers and Q doesn’t find room for Jokiharju and he gets sent back to Portland? Sikura has a rough rookie season? And most of all Crawford isn’t Crawford, or isn’t even there?

You know which is more likely, even if only 50% of it happens. So either the Hawks mean what they say, and Q is out on his ass before 2019 hits, or they’re just whistling dixie, Jerry Angelo.

It wouldn’t be much of a hit anymore. A mid-season whacking (and who doesn’t love a good mid-season whacking?) would only see Q on the books for another season and a half, and that’s something an organization constantly in the mood to tell you they’re still not profitable would consider, especially when it’s the highest paid coach in the league.

Basically, we’ll know if the Hawks mean what they say come the Holidays, or it’s likely that we will.

Everything Else

The Folly Of Transparecy

By Sam Fels 2436 0

Friend of the program Jay Zawaski had some thoughts on Tuesday. This is a subject we discussed a lot last year, what was the Hawks real intent on the season versus what they told everyone it was and why there was a difference. Jay’s not wrong about anything he says here, and it is a nice thought he wishes for where the Hawks were completely transparent about what their plans are going forward.

But the more I think about it, what do they have to gain?

Quite simply, the Hawks are not going to sell more tickets if they tell everyone that they’re in the process of turning over the team to their younger players. I don’t know that they’d sell less, but their position in the Chicago sports landscape isn’t so secure that they would feel they can risk it. While telling us exactly what “The Plan” is would make us all feel better, our mental state isn’t of real importance to them. The Hawks quite simply can’t take the risk of telling their only casual fans that this season might not matter. And that’s assuming there is “a plan.”

Secondly, the Hawks can’t really send that message to Keith, to Seabrook, to Kane, to Toews, and maybe even especially to Crawford. While the organization might be looking at the days already where they’re no longer the main contributors, considering they’re the guys who pulled this organization out of the seventh level of hell they’re owed a certain amount of promises from the front office. You can’t really tell these guys that they’re going to spend the next season or two or three playing games that aren’t going to matter. Maybe they know it already, maybe they don’t, but you certainly can’t give them that message in public. And considering whatever Crawford is working his way back from (and right now “working” is just a claim), it would be truly unfair to have him bust his ass to come back to backstop a team his bosses just told everyone isn’t really relevant.

These guys are made, and I think the only way the Hawks could even consider it would be to meet with them privately and say this is where we want to go, and you have the option of being a part of it or not. These guys all have full NMCs and I doubt any of them are interested in moving, but they also might not want to have another playoff-less season or two.

At the same time, the Hawks simply can’t move them, because of the aforementioned fragility of their place in the market. Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, and Crawford are still the players most fans can identify only and buy the tickets to see. You and I might go to see Top Cat’s or Schmaltz’s (or hopefully Jokiharju’s) development (because we’re sick and our lives our empty), but the guy or girl you work with doesn’t. Even if we passed through some undiscovered wormhole into a world where the Hawks could and would do a full tear-down, McDonough and Rocky are not going to stomach a season or two of a half-empty building. Not after all the back-slapping they’ve done with each other by taking the Hawks out of that by simply standing there while the roster that was already in place took shape.

However, the Hawks “rebuild” plan is flawed. You “rebuild, ” whether fully or on the fly, if you have players to build the future around. The Hawks don’t. Nick Schmaltz maxes out as a great #2 center. Maybe DeBrincat is a genuine top line scorer, and maybe he’s something of a tweener from a #1 or #2 LW. He could be any iteration of Phil Kessel, really. There’s no top-pairing d-man anywhere near ready. If you’re building a team around #2 centers and maybe 1st-line wingers, congratulations you’re the St. Louis Blues or the Minnesota Wild. And you know where that road goes and it’s nowhere pretty.

Which brings me to Erik Karlsson. If you’re a team that’s called about Justin Faulk, then you’d obviously call about Erik Karlsson because Erik Karlsson is the absolute idealized version of Justin Faulk. Sure, the Hawks would have to clear out Hossa’s contract to fit him in for this season, and then need more salary cap rises to accommodate him for the next contract he’s going to sign. But based on what’s been rumored to be the return from the Stars or Lightning, the Hawks could probably match it.

So if they’re not rebuilding, and they say they aren’t, and they’re after Justin Faulk, why aren’t they calling? Why aren’t they at least saying they’re calling? Karlsson is the quickest route to maximizing whatever you have left in “the core.” If you’re stated aim of competing every season is your actual aim, and we don’t know that it is, you’d be in on this. You would have been in on Tavares too, but the Hawks didn’t even get in the room.

McClure has a theory that the Hawks would never take on any player that would have to be paid more than Toews and Kane (which is funny in itself, because Keith has been the most important player throughout this run but that’s another discussion). Karlsson doesn’t make that yet but obviously will. I wonder if that’s the case and whether that really matters to either if they’re staring at finishing out their careers playing on middling teams.

Given what’s already on the roster, the Hawks simply can’t be bad enough to draft high enough to get a true difference maker without a shit-ton of luck either in the lottery or by getting a player of that quality in the spots they don’t generally come from. So why are those picks so important? And if everyone’s job is on the line like they claim, wouldn’t you be after the one player that basically assures everyone keeps their job? Karlsson takes this dreck and at worst it’s a playoff team with a healthy Crawford (and maybe even not). That would at least see Quenneville finish the season and Stan get to see out whatever his plan is.

But again, there’s no impetus for them to tell us. The sweaty hand-clappers and their ugly fucking kids will still be at the Convention happily sopping up whatever tripe they’re fed. There won’t be much scrutiny from a press corps that has the Cubs and Bears training camp a mere two weeks away. Quite simply, the Hawks won’t tell us what they’re doing because they don’t have to.

Everything Else

The Murky State Of Urgency

By Sam Fels 2753 0

Just like yesterday, one should hesitate in putting too much into anything right now before we see the entire scope of what the Hawks do this summer. So just know I reserve the right to toss this out in a week, a month, whenever. And the problem for the Hawks is what they seem to be attempting is nearly impossible.

While the Hawks make all the noise the past two summers about seismic changes and alarms going off in the front office, which appear to be nothing more than John McDonough bullying his employees, that doesn’t mean you can force things.

Obviously, the model is how the Red Wings were able to pivot from the Yzerman-Fedorov Era of the late 90’s to the Datsyuk-Zetterberg era of the late 2000s. But as we get farther away from it and our lens scopes out, we can see that it probably just was Ken Holland getting extremely lucky with some later round picks. Because how’s the pivot going from the Dats-Z Era to the Dylan Larkin one? It’s been eight years of irrelevance at least and counting. The Penguins haven’t had to deal with this yet, but you can certainly see it on the horizon for them, especially if Matt Murray never matches what his first two years brought. Once you start winning and taking yourself out of position to draft genuine class, it’s nearly impossible to go get. Victory defeats you, eventually.

So while Stan can boast about maintaining the present and the future, the options for the former were limited. There was one player that would have made the difference in free agency (Tavares) and he never considered the Hawks. Maybe in another town the Hawks would face questions about how they couldn’t even get to the table for the most prized free agent to hit the market in years, (and arguably they landed the last one this coveted in Hossa), but not in this one. It’s an anonymity they clearly relish. There were others who might have helped, but again they didn’t seem to be a consideration at all for Stastny or Bozak, which is curious. It’s only taken a season or two for the Hawks to completely fall off the map for free agents.

If you want to argue they could have put together the same package of flotsam that the Blues did for Ryan O’Reilly, I’ll listen. Because that’s really a big bag of nothing the Blues sent to Buffalo. Tage Thompson my ass.

So there wasn’t much Stan could do to demonstrate “urgency” yesterday. The more I think about it the more the Manning signing makes no sense, and we’ve been over and over Cam Ward. Kunitz is fine, it’s not like anyone was in love with what the Hawks could sport on the fourth line anyway.

I suppose Stan envisions a time, very soon, where this team belongs to DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Jokiharju (and boy that’s a leap right now) and maybe even Boqvist in three seasons. I’ll leave Jokijarju and Boqvist out of this, because we simply don’t know anything right now. But if Schmaltz or Sikura were going to be top line players in the NHL, we’d know by now. Yes, we would. You know one when you see one, and they very well may be top sixers (Schmaltz already is), but as my compadre McClure says every spring, it’s top line talent that gets the parade. Right now, the Hawks sport one genuine world class player still playing at that level (Kane). If everything goes right with Top Cat, you could see him being one. But that’s not enough.

Stan seems to be planning and reserving for a future that either isn’t coming or isn’t going to be what he thinks. And maybe he has little choice. There just isn’t a lot out there. But this team isn’t buttressed for when Keith, Toews, and Kane are simply old (the first two might already be there, Seabrook certainly is) and it hasn’t provided them the support to still make a go of it now while they might still be able to do it from memory. If the Hawks were a hitter, you’d say they’re in between–can’t catch up to the fastball but still ahead of the offspeed pitches.

At the end of the day, no one is going to answer for this, really. They’ll point to their three banners and ask you about how much you enjoyed that, even if it appears more and more those three banners landed on them. They’ll bleat on about changes and yes, maybe Q will lose his job this season. And if things don’t turn around quickly after that, Stan could follow him. But both could leave with their heads held high.

I still have to believe the Hawks have a trade in them to try and make something of this season. That waiting list won’t last forever. Those empty seats will only get more numerous. They can’t roll into that convention unveiling Chris Kunitz.

But then again, they might.

Everything Else

It Ain’t Easy To Get To Heaven When You’re Going Down

By Sam Fels 2029 0

Perhaps it’s a good thing, at least for him, that Stan Bowman has become a master in saying nothing. Because if he were honest or forthcoming about the position he finds himself in, we all might understand just what a difficult spot he’s in at the moment.

Obviously, everything hinges on Corey Crawford, and there isn’t much Stan can do about that. But if he were to come out and say publicly they don’t have any idea when and if Crawford is going to play again, then whatever calls he’s making for even a backup goalie suddenly get a lot tougher. Whether that’s Darling, or maybe a call on Grubauer, or whatever other idea he might have, everyone is going to know that he’s looking for someone who can step in as a starter if need be, not just a backup.

But it runs deeper than that. A theme of Stan’s press conference yesterday was that he wasn’t going all-in on this season, wanting to build for as much down the road as this season. That hasn’t stopped us from pointing out that if the Hawks don’t massively rebound this year, the long-term isn’t going to matter for him because Stan’s not going to have a job, at least not here.

But there’s a two-pronged problem with that. One, even if Stan went all-in on this season, where does that leave him? What’s a successful season for the Hawks next year? Second round of the playoffs? When you’ve won three playoff games in three years that’s a pretty big step, but is it enough for McD and Rocky? A valiant defeat to Nashville or Winnipeg there? Because it’s unlikely there’s any amount of moves the Hawks can make this summer where you’d go into next season saying they’d be favored over either of those teams. The Hawks can overhaul Minnesota, St. Louis, Colorado and Dallas, but those two remain ahead of the rest of the pack.

So say you do all that, but in the process you lose…oh I don’t know, Jokiharju and/or Sikura and maybe one or two others in pursuit of the defenseman and forward you need and more, without giving up anything major on the NHL roster. Where are you for ’19-’20? Is it likely with “THE CORE” another year older that you can improve without a pipeline of kids aiding them? Would you have to keep being active in free agency after you’ve used all the powder in your system? Would you have just put off your firing one season? Any free agent you sign is likely to skew older as well. Justin Faulk is a good age, but he’s not turning it around on his own.

Secondly, Stan might be gun-shy on any “win now” moves, considering how his coach has handled them in the recent past. Go back all the way to the Vermette trade. It took until Game 4 of the conference final before Q bought into Vermette, who cost a pretty penny. The following season, Stan brought in Ladd, Weise, and Fleischmann. The latter two were discarded essentially by the time the playoffs rolled around, and Ladd didn’t have much to offer. Those trades cost picks and Phillip Danault, and man would Danault look nice about now.

Connor Murphy was a move for now and later, and spent most of the season having his coach shit on him like he was Roman Reigns (WRESTLING REFERENCE). Alex DeBrincat, certainly one for the future but definitely a help now, spent way too much of the season on a third line and on the right side.

So if you’re Stan, are you truly confident any big move you make is going to be deployed properly? Because if they aren’t, then you have to fire the coach in the middle of the season. Does Stan draw enough water to do that? Who’s more important to the higher-ups, Stan or Q? Does he already know he doesn’t? Do we know? Does Stan have a Plan B in case he does get to make that move? Would Jeremy Colliton be ready? And as a GM if you pull the trigger on a coaching change, your neck is now exposed. If it doesn’t turn things around, you and the coach you hired are out on your ass come the summer.

It seems Stan knows that whatever moves he makes specifically for next season, he can’t completely lose what’s after that, even if he’s not around for it. Because this roster is going to need to be augmented, fed, freshened by kids through the system each of the next two, three, four years to maintain and eventually replace THE CORE.

With Tavares looking likely to stay put, the one-and-done answer in free agency isn’t there. Anything else is subject to usage, which hasn’t always gone Stan’s way. We’ve said it wouldn’t make sense to fire a GM and not a coach midseason, because an interim GM can’t change much midseason. But not everything with the Hawks management has made sense, despite what their success says. They apparently gave the reins fully to Stan last summer, and then they missed the playoffs. Is he still as trusted? Or are Q and his allies getting their influence back?

We’ll know soon enough.

Everything Else

Bury My Heart At Michal Kempny

By Sam Fels 2580 0

It’s something of a spring tradition, at least it is when your team doesn’t go anywhere or misses the dance altogether. There’s always a player or two or six who make it to the Final and some of those even win it (funny how that works). And you sit there and curse the brainpower of your local/favorite organization, and are convinced if only they saw the world they way you saw it, there’d be a never-ending parade. Often, this involves a player you didn’t even like when they sported the colors you prefer, and what you often do is lament that your coaching staff doesn’t know how to get the best or even good out of said player.

The case of Michal Kempny is a little more tasty than that.

Most players don’t get a 180 from one Edward Olczyk. And yet that’s what we had last night, as Eddie lauded Kempny’s performance in Game 7 and throughout the playoffs, and remarked he was more comfortable in Washington because he knew “one mistake wouldn’t mean getting benched.” That certainly wasn’t the theme in the booth when Kempny was here, and Eddie wasn’t alone as pretty much everyone covering the Hawks leapt to point out his foibles when the coach was basically throwing him under the bus. And the mistakes weren’t always there.

There is more to unpack here than the untrained eye might guess. And we’ll get to all of it. But let’s not bury the lede.

Michal Kempny’s resurgence, or I guess simply “surgence,” with the Capitals would raise the curtain or lid on what was and might still be a dysfunctional system between the Hawks front office and behind their bench. While we try and guess or claim we know what goes on, it’s probably safe to conclude the Hawks always try and reach a consensus. They have many voices in there, Bowman and Quenneville are the two biggest, but MacIassac and Maciver get heard as well (Irish much?), as well as Kelley, the elder Bowman (even if he’s what they’re moving Sue over at the Field to display), Stewart, Hallin, et al.

Still, Kempny was a player that Bowman clearly wanted, given that he signed him twice, and their European scouting recommended. As as we’ve said in previous posts, the Hawks’ European scouting is probably the strongest of the three areas (pro and amateur the others). They had clear plans for Kempny.

And yet he could never win any affection, or barely attention, from Quenneville. We rarely saw him in anything more than a third-pairing role, even though this was a blue line that’s been screaming for mobility for two seasons. He even played with a snarl in his own end that Q supposedly loves. Kempny only played more than 18 minutes with the Hawks five times this season, and he exceeded that six times with the Caps in just a quarter of the season, basically. In these playoffs he’s exceeded 20 minutes five times, with only one of those being an overtime game. It is clear that Barry Trotz is not a moron, so what does he see that Q couldn’t.. or more to the point, wouldn’t?

We had written at many points last year how Kempny’s pairing with Seabrook, despite all logic, actually worked. The dude carried a 58% share with Michal Rozsvial for fuck’s sake! He clearly had use.

And yet he was another player that the front office, whoever were his fans and whoever weren’t, had to toss overboard because they knew simply the coach would never give him a chance. And because of that, they had to know he wouldn’t re-sign here and had to cash in whatever they could. Most players the Hawks have lost over the years were due to cap considerations, but their coach’s use and view of them always played a part. And for the most part, the Hawks have gotten it right. Kempny now, Teuvo this season are generally the exception of who’s gone on to be successful. And we’ve written this article before.

It’s the sideswipe from Olczyk that makes this more interesting, however. It’s not something we’ve ever heard, and there’s been no bigger water-carrier for the organization and how it sees its players than those in the booth. From protecting Marcus Kruger in his rookie year to the over-the-top criticisms of Teuvo to the shielding of Seabrook this year, to his one-man band that basically handed Duncan Keith his second Norris with the Leddy-bashing thrown in, this list could go on. Where Eddie was getting his info is up for endless debate, but clearly this one didn’t come from the coach. Does Eddie perceive a less secure Q, one that he doesn’t have to cozy up to quite as much now? Does he just disagree with his methods more than he did?

If I can put my tin foil hat on–the sun is out after all–I’m curious what Eddie is getting at. Sometimes I wonder if Eddie hasn’t looked at Q’s job with envy, and wouldn’t mind positioning himself in line should it finally become open. But that seems far-fetched, though he’s stated his desire to try coaching again. Perhaps he just became frustrated, like a lot of us, at the handling of the lineup on a nightly basis and couldn’t take it anymore. Maybe he’s just like a lot of fans who want to criticize after a season gone wrong, even if it involves players he himself criticized when they were hear and now the winds have shifted. I don’t really know.

What we can do is be wary of how things are going to go from here. Because the Hawks aren’t going to get older, and they’ve said as much, as far as how they want to develop the team under the aging core. Sure, they may make a splash or two in free agency this summer, but the fortunes of this team are still greatly dependent on Schmaltz, Top Cat, Sikura, Ejdsell, Duclair, Hinostroza, Saad, Murphy, or at least whoever among them sticks, to go along with other kids through the system and signed out of Europe (Ian Mitchell and Jokiharju would be the two names at the top of that list). And at the very least, Eddie is pointing at a disconnect in how the front office and scouting wants players developed, and how they’re actually getting used and developed.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Patrick Kane or The Barometer?

By Sam Fels 1859 0

It was kind of a weird season for Patrick Kane. And not all of it was self-inflicted. But perhaps no player symbolizes what went wrong for the Hawks, and their reaction to it, better than him. Let’s deep dive.

Patrick Kane

27 goals, 49 assists, 76 points, -20, 32 PIM

51.6 CF%, -1.1 CF% Rel, 48.0 xGF%, -2.36 xGF% rel

There are a couple thing to know about Kane before you get into how this season fit. While his previous two MVP-level seasons are the ones that get the most attention, Kane had actually been a point-per-game player for five straight seasons before this one. One was the season-in-a-can of 2013, and the next two were ended prematurely due to injury where he only played 69 and 61 games. So he could have had eye-popping numbers in five seasons instead of the two he did simply due to different fates. So to complain he’d fallen off that a bit this seasons would seem the most petty of tactics, but it’s the standard he set.

Second, it’s important to note that Kane is one of those players that the metrics don’t mean a ton to. He’s never been a great possession player, and has always lagged behind the team rates for the past six years. In fact, his relative marks above are the best he’s had in the past four seasons. Some of that is playing with exclusively offensive players like Panarin or basically glorified obelisks like Artem Anisimov or players needed heavy sheltering like Brad Richards or Michal Handzus (the horror…the horror…) or Andrew Shaw. The roster wonkiness has always seemed to affect Kane most or thereabouts, but it doesn’t matter because he’s going to score anyway.

So why the dip in points this year? Quite simply, luck and linemates. Kane’s personal SH% dropped to 9.5% this year from 11.6% last year and 16% the year before that. Even if 16% is the outlier leading to a 46-goals season we’re probably not going to see again, 9% is low enough below his career 12% mark that you know it’s crap luck. Even that career mark would have seen him score 34 goals this year instead of 27. The team’s overall shooting-percentage when Kane was on the ice dipped from 9.5 to 7.7. That might not sound like a lot but it’s a difference of 12 goals over the season at evens just for Kane’s time on the ice.

And we can boil it down to luck, mostly, because he was getting the same chances as he had the previous seasons. Kane actually had more attempts at evens per 60 minutes this year than he had in five seasons. Some of that could be a product of playing with the pass-happy Schmaltz. Kane got more shots on net than he had in five seasons as well. His individual expected goals was higher than it was the previous two seasons, though not as high as ’15 or ’14. Again, this is where we can’t measure if he somehow lost something off his shot or accuracy, but it’s a good sign he was getting the chances we’re accustomed to seeing.

It would be easy to point to the power play as a points-dipper (phrasing?), but Kane actually only had one less point on the power play than he did last year, though obviously nowhere near the 37 power play points he piled up in his Hart year. But this is where the discussion turns. Because most will tell you the Hawks power play struggles due to it standing around and waiting for Kane to do something. Our argument this  year is Kane is just as much of a problem. The puck dies when it gets to him. It’s isolation basketball, and there’s little temptation for anyone to do anything when that consistently happens. It’s not near the full explanation for why the power play in a constant state of self-fuckery, but it’s one. Going forward, whoever is running it has to get Kane to make decisions quicker and to move around more. The stick-handling at the circle for 10-15 seconds isn’t getting anyone anywhere except closer to the embrace of the reaper.

And this is where we get beyond the stats. There wasn’t anything Kane could do to save this season. A 110-point tour-de-force still lands this team well outside the playoff spots. And there were some nights, or at least periods, where it did seem Kane was trying to salvage everything himself, and drag this team to relevance.

But there were other nights, or shifts, where it was clear Kane couldn’t locate a fuck to give. On some level, you understand. As well-informed about hockey matters as he is, Kane almost assuredly knew this season was toast in January. And in his 12th year, you could understand if a game against Minnesota in February just doesn’t have the same ring as it did when the Hawks were good. Still, that’s not what he’s asked to do. There were lazy passes or changes, a lack of desire to backcheck, or trying shit simply to entertain himself. Cynically looking for his 500th assist when the Hawks were getting clubbed in Arizona was a particular highlight.

He’s not alone. Toews had his nights. So did Keith. When you’ve spent as long at the top as these guys have, finding the same charge when at the bottom is near impossible. They shouldn’t be given a pass but they also shouldn’t just be accepted either.

If the Hawks are going to be good again, they’ll need Kane back at his PPG+ form. And he probably will be with simple luck rebounding. But it would also help if he were there every night, and that can’t be dependent on if he thinks the rest of his team is at his level. Sure, accepting the problems and putting Top Cat on his wing for the 35 goals he could assuredly score with Kane wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

But also, whatever fatigue there is with Joel Quenneville has to be cleared by the team’s veterans. Our suspicions before have been that Kane and Toews have sort of tired of the coach’s voice, but with the Hartman trade it appeared that it was the kids who weren’t really responding. And yet…and yet…

Get to the 5:07 mark of this video, and while dabbling in body language and speech analysis is probably a really dumb thing to do, does this strike you as someone believing in the direction of everything? Something tells me there are interesting times ahead, and that doesn’t necessarily mean smooth.