Baseball

So…Is This Cubs Thing Real?

By Sam Fels 1444 0

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.

Everything Else

Deferring On Addison Doesn’t Keep Maddon From Talking

By Sam Fels 1372 0

The Cubs have found themselves in a situation they’ve been in no way prepared for, I think that much we can agree on. So yesterday’s decision to option Addison Russell to Iowa when his suspension is up makes sense in that it buys everyone some more time. What they’ll do with that time, I don’t have any idea and am searching for confidence.

Most of me thinks this is simply a baseball decision, and if anything is beyond that it’s merely trying to put off the unpleasantness of Russell’s return. On a strictly baseball plane, there isn’t room for Russell right now. Javier Baez has proven to be the better player on every side of the ball. And for those dinosaurs who still can’t seem to see past Russell’s projections as a prospect, it’s important to note he’s never come all that close to even putting up an average offensive season. Whereas Javy is working on his third straight of being at least that good if not way better. Yes, Russell’s defense is steadier, but Javy is well on his way this year to matching Russell’s defensive metrics of the past couple years (Baez has been worth 2.0 defensive runs in just one month according to FanGraphs, and Russell was at nine and seven the past two years).

Beyond that, David Bote–who I’m still not convinced will hit for shit when pitchers just stop throwing him fastballs–has been too good to lose the fifth infielder spot, and in fact has forced Bryant to the outfield more often than not recently. Same goes for Daniel Descalso, as much like Bote is putting up offensive numbers Russell has never approached. Who loses ABs here? Essentially, the Cubs are trying to buy time to see if anyone gets hurt.

The only baseball concern is that Javy tires out from playing short every day, though if you ask him I’m sure that’s exactly what he’d want. And Bote could probably make a fist of it once every couple weeks if you really needed him to. It wouldn’t be pretty but he’d get you out of a game.

It’s the asking him part that I have a problem with.

I’m sure this type of thing goes on all the time in a clubhouse. And I’m sure Joe Maddon, who has quickly become the answer to a question no one asked, was just trying to be kind to Javy. But this is the problem with Maddon, is that the more he talks for the sake of hearing himself the more he ends up having to answer for.

Maddon almost assuredly never considered this, and I doubt the front office would have sanctioned it if they’d been asked, but that’s far more weight than Javy or any player should ever be asked. It’s not his job to determine where and how much Russell plays. That’s Maddon’s job. He doesn’t need to ask Javy what he thinks. Javy was given an everyday role last year essentially for the first time, certainly no more than the second, and came up with a MVP-finalist season. He’s playing just as well this year, if not better. You know Javy wants to be in the lineup every day, and he’d like to be at his natural position.

But he’s not going to say that, because no teammate ever does. He’s not going to tell Joe, even in a bunker that’s been swept for bugs and assured total secrecy, that Russell can go fuck himself and spot start at second for all he cares. It seems like Joe is just trying to cover himself and open an avenue for Russell to play short so he can then say, “Javy said this is what he wants, and he wants what’s best for the team because he’s a good teammate.” That’s the only reason you’d make this public.

Second, whether Maddon or the Cubs front office likes it or not (OR NOT), Russell just carries more with him upon promotion and insertion into the lineup. That’s what the Cubs chose to take on and carry, and we went over that yesterday. To put that on Baez is wholly unfair, because he’s not equipped to deal with that, nor is he in a position to have to do so. It would be a near travesty if Baez somehow got blamed for the presence of a player a lot of Cubs fans find detestable and don’t want around in the first place. Baez shouldn’t be sullied in such a way.

Again, the Cubs chose to take this one, and they’re going to have to show their work every step of the way. And they have a lot of the time recent. But dragging another player into it isn’t helping anyone.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From The Dodgers: That’s How Javy Does It

By Sam Fels 1279 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Dodgers 2

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 7, Dodgers 6

Game 3 Box Score: Dodgers 2, Cubs 1

At the end of last year, and the beginning of this one, the Cubs made a lot of noise that they let games pass last year. Specifically, getaway days/chances to sweep a series were eschewed and taking two of three or series splits were settled for. So I suppose through one prism, this is one of those games the Cubs couldn’t bring home last year and didn’t this year. I think it’s a load of shit when a team wins 95 games but here we are. Also, the Dodgers are really good and it’s somewhat unfair that they can just move Ross Stripling to the pen to accommodate the cares-so-much Rich Hill. And taking two of three from them after they’d paddled the Brewers ass red is almost certainly something to feel gratified about. Let’s do the thing.

The Two Obs

-Perhaps the most exciting thing of the series was Jose Quintana adding a third straight dominating start to the previous two. Yes, the Dodgers are not as effective against lefties but that doesn’t mean they’re helpless. Q’s first two get-healthy outings were against Miami and on a frigid day against Anaheim without Trout, so this was a higher-level test. And he clearly passed it. he’s not throwing that change-up a ton but he’s throwing it enough to be accounted for and he’s throwing it effectively enough to get whiffs and off-balance swings. He’s allowing way less contact and striking out nearly a third of the hitters he’s seen so far. While you could count on Q to be solid this year, him taking a star-turn would definitely be a bonus.

-The other two lefties sent to keep the Dodgers’ doomsday device from going off did their jobs as well. Lester looked good in his return, giving up a solitary run. Hamels somehow dodged six walks to keep the Cubs in Javy-range. The rotation is shaping up better than we hoped, which makes this a very good team despite the assholes and dipshits that come out of the pen.

-I don’t understand how anyone hits Walker Buehler, his stuff is that good. And yet something happens to pitchers when Javy is at the plate. They have to make a breaking pitch perfect, hang it, and this is what you get. Someday some pitching coach is going to tell his guys to throw nothing but fastballs at his letters and above. Then again, that’s what Joe Kelly tried to do in the 8th today and Javy somehow got on top of a neck-high fastball to bang it off the wall.

-Javy’s decision to try and steal in the first with Descalso up and two outs was a little iffy, as Descalso has been nails in leverage situations. But these are the things you just excuse.

-I was curious at Joe Sheehan’s Albert Almora/Kyle Schwarber treatise on Twitter yesterday. I haven’t totally given up on AA but I can see that landmark from where I am. Then he homers off Kenley Jansen. I wouldn’t be opposed to getting him more ABs at the expense of Ben Zobrist right now, who can’t seem to do anything but give you weak grounders up the middle. That doesn’t mean Zoby 18 won’t have a role to play later in the year. We know he will, but this is probably AA’s pivot year and we aren’t going to get answers without at least a third of the season as a starter. The offense is clicking with Zobrist and Schwarber as black holes, it can survive Almora taking one of their spots.

-Fire Randy Rosario into the sun. I keep saying it, but he’s never been good, his stuff isn’t interesting, and now he can’t get it over the plate. The Cubs probably have to redo their entire left side of the pen, although I’ll give Kyle Ryan a touch more leash. Just don’t make me go through that again.

–Brad Brach was hitting 94 today, which has to be the hardest he’s thrown all season. If that continues, I have slightly more patience for him. Just not much.

Onwards…