Everything Else

The Winds Of Thor Are Blowing Cold – Quarterly Report

By Sam Fels 3431 0

As Pat Foley was very anxious to tell you on Saturday night, the Hawks passed the quarter-mark of the season. Well, technically they’ll pass it with ten minutes to go in the second period tomorrow night, as that would be the actual quarter of 82 games. But I’m not writing this post in the middle of the game tomorrow, because like all of you I’ll most likely be elbow deep in a pilsner of some sort on Black Wednesday. So let’s just do this now, huh?

Let’s divide this up into “What We Know,” “What We Think,” and “We Don’t Know Anything” because it makes for a nice Mad Season reference. On to it:

What We Know

Corey Crawford is really good – This is the most obvious one. For at least the season’s first 10 games, maybe longer, Crawford was the only reason the Hawks were picking up any points at all. He was carrying a save-percentage over .940 for a while there, and his underlying numbers under that were pretty stupid.

The concern is that he’s not going to be able to maintain this standard for a whole season. Luckily, at least in some ways, his numbers are flattening out to things he’s put up for. His current even-strength SV% would not be a career-high, as he was .933 in ’15-’16 against his .932 now. He also put up .931’s at evens in ’14-’15 and 2013.

Crow hasn’t even had to perform quite as many miracles this year as in years past, at least at the moment. Expected save-percentage isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s what we have to go on. It’s basically trying to show how much above average a goalie is playing, by illustrating what a neutral goalie would surrender if seeing the same chances as the goalie in question is. The difference between expected save-percentage and a goalie’s actual one would tell you just how unconscious he’s been or how below par he’s been. Crow’s difference of 1.09 between his expected save percentage and actual would only be the fourth-highest of his career, and only a touch above his average of +1.00 the past five years. Basically, this is what he does, and the Hawks aren’t asking him to do quite as much as he has in the past, even if it feels like it.

If there’s an area of concern, it’s work on the penalty-kill. Crow’s SV% there currently is .918, and that blows anything he’s done before out of the water and into orbit. His previous career-high was .894 in 2013. The difference between his SV% and xSV% on the kill is also astronomical, though it isn’t among the league-leaders at the moment. If the fall comes, it’ll be on the PK and with the Hawks still having a much worse five-man acoustical jam on the power play, that could be a real problem.

Brent Seabrook is woof-tastic – You knew we would get here. There’s really nothing encouraging about any of it, as Seabrook’s underlying numbers continue to sink into the gravy boat he also likely lost his keys in. And it’s clear that Q has noticed. As Pullega pointed out earlier today, his time on ice is dwindling, not even getting 14 minutes of ES time in three of the past four games. Even more tellingly, at the end of the game on Saturday where the Hawks had to protect a one-goal lead it was Jan Rutta with Duncan Keith out there.

But in some ways, that’s encouraging? You have to ignore the context, but there is some hope that i the right pairing Seabrook can survive as a third-pairing d-man. Give him someone with mobility, be it Forsling or Kempny, and softer assignments, and there’s a decent chance the ice won’t look like After The Fall when he’s done.

What We Think

Connor Murphy might be getting it? – It sounds strange to say because lately he’s been partnered with Seabrook. But Murphy’s CF% the last seven games: 72, 76.1, 65.6, 43.8, 60, 55.5, 50. And he hasn’t had sheltered zone starts. So much of this season is pinned on Murphy and Forsling being really good, and both seem to be trending that way. In some ways Seabrook, in a vacuum (make your stomach-pumping joke here) is a perfect partner for Murphy, because both, in theory, are something of a tweener when it comes to roles. Seabrook was always too gifted offensively to be merely a center fielder, and Murphy skates well enough to get himself in the play–though he’s never going to score a lot. I’d still like to see Murphy play the foil to a pure puck-mover like Keith or Forsling, but all good things to those who wait, Clarice.

We Don’t Know Anything

The Hawks 3rd line – It’s been something of a hole all year. It was bad with Anisimov there, but he’s had a revival moving up to play with Kane and Schmaltz. Sharp, Hartman, ADB, Wingels, and Working Class Kero have all taken turns trying to straighten it out and nothing has really worked. The fourth line has played well enough to cover it up for now, but what’s frustrating is there do seem to be solutions in-house. They could either be moving Schmaltz back to center, getting Top Cat into the top six and moving either Toews or Anisimov around wingers that they can do something with (yes, I would put Schmaltz between Saad and Panik and Toews lower down the lineup and I wouldn’t think twice). A call-up of Vinnie Smalls also would seem to be worth a try. His speed would have to have some effect, but this might just be a player Q doesn’t like. We’ll find out soon enough.

Everything Else

You Love This Game. It Says Everything You Want To Say

By Sam Fels 2720 0

It’s hard to imagine how last night could have been a better illustration of the things the Hawks defense does well and the things it doesn’t do well and how it’s kind of mismatched for the task at hand. It also was something of an example about how it’s being let down by the forwards in front of it, and how those forwards bail them out.

Here’s what we know about the Hawks’ defense right now. It has maybe one top-pairing player, and that’s not a certain (Keith). It has three players that are probably no more than third-pairing bum-slayers (Forsling, Franson, Seabrook). It has two players either in their first or second year that are still working out the kinks (Rutta, Forsling). It has one player that Q just won’t let be anything, really (Kempny). And it has one player who’s probably a second-pairing player learning a new system, but the Hawks need him to become a top pairing player sharpish while shuffling him from one side to the other (Murphy). As you can see, it’s a mess.

Of late, Q has come to trust (somewhat) Cody Franson with Duncan Keith. If you squint, you see why. He’s big, he’s a good counter to Keith’s all-over game, and when he has the puck he’s good with it. But here’s the problem. Watch Franson on this one, especially on the replay:

He loses the puck off the draw, spins around looking for it in his feet, gets stripped, and then dogs it back to his side of the ice where there are two Rangers uncovered because Keith is probably expecting him to get back there sometime before Purim. And this is not a rare occurrence with Franson, who does not have anywhere near the speed to be dogging it anywhere. There’s a reason he’s on his fourth team and was on a PTO. He’s just that slow and kind of goes to the zoo too often.

But he can also do this:

That’s a one-timer off a bouncing puck off the boards not anywhere near his wheelhouse that he gets to the net. And really, he’s just about the only Hawks d-man who can do that. Certainly the only right-handed one, as Seabrook would have probably fallen over these days. The Hawks need that on the power play for sure, and they need that dash at even-strength as well from that side.

The Hawks are also being held back at times due to a learning curve.

Here, the Hawks do mostly everything right, actually. Murphy is within his rights to try and jump down low and get involved, and the Hawks want that out of him. Hartman actually covers his point correctly, but doesn’t read the shot going wide right and lets the puck past him and then Nash has a step on Murphy. Murphy actually does pretty well in forcing Nash on his backhand and wide, and this is one Crow would like back. But again, it’s an example of the Hawks d not really having the footspeed to play the hyper-aggressive game they have, or at least still trying to reprogram some players on how to do it.

Gustav Forsling was excellent last night, and yet still started over 60% of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. And his partner, Jan Rutta, was beyond awful. And this is the kind of thing the Hawks are just going to have to live with for a while.

Q won’t like it, because the one time he tried it the Hawks gave up seven, but dressing seven d-men for a while is probably the best option. Because each of the d-men have something the Hawks need and each of them also have a glaring weakness that needs to be covered up. Kempny is the most mobile d-man behind Keith and Forsling (and it’s closer with Forsling than you think). But he is good for one or two boners per game that need to be covered. Keith can’t both take on top lines and push the play offensively, which means you need someone else to do whichever he’s not. But from the left side, only Forsling can be a puck-mover behind Keith if Kempny isn’t playing. If someone else needs to take top pairing assignments defensively, who is it? I’d give Murphy a run, but with whom? It sure feels like Forsling is being groomed for that, but that’s a big risk. Franson is slow and defensively wonky, but his offensive skills and right-handed shot are needed on the power play at least. Rutta is defensively more sound than Franson but doesn’t have the offensive polish, so he can’t do all of those things and his learning curve is starting to look pretty steep anyway.

And Seabrook…um…. well, I’ll get back to you on that.

As you can see, it’s a rough puzzle to try and fix, as there don’t seem to be any corner pieces. The Hawks haven’t fashioned any yet, that’s for sure.

Everything Else

Here’s A Big Bag O’ Bums: Hawks 5 – Jackets 2

By 1260

A quick thought parade of the Hawks’ preseason opener

-Most of these guys aren’t going to be anywhere near an NHL arena near you this year, and if they are ask for you money back. However, Nick Schmaltz being head and shoulders above really anyone on either team is something you’re more than allowed to be encouraged by. Schmaltz’s hands and vision made flashes last year, and if he carried the confidence he looks to have now into the season there’s really no reason to think he can’t be a genuine #2 center in the NHL. Of course, I’m sure Q will coach the actual movement he showed on the 5-on-3 to set up the goal right out of him, because the Hawks just don’t do that don’t you know?

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – The Young and the Useless: The 6th D-Man

By 2016

There’s a lot of anxiety about the D-corps this year because for the first time in this era, there seem to be more questions than answers. Nowhere is this more evident than the 3rd pairing. Maybe it’s just that we’ve been spoiled with both a deep and overperforming D-corps throughout most of this Hawks era. But looking at these options is a bit like rummaging through the fridge after a bender. One of these guys is going to pair with Forsling, so let’s see if we can conjure who would be the best fit. (All of this assumes Franson doesn’t make the team. If he does, I’d be shocked if he weren’t the 6th D-man.)