Hockey

Game #59 – Fall Out and Take the Bait, Eat the Fruit, and Kiss the Snake Good Night – Hawks 2, Jets 3

By John Pullega 1620 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

A 1–4–0 road trip in the throes of a playoff hunt does not inspire confidence. And whatever confidence you had in this team should be revealed as false based on one roster decision. A win may have kept whatever telltale heart we still have for this team beating. But looking up at six points and down the barrel of a hell trip at the end of the month makes the idea of a playoff berth even less sustainable than the style of play Colliton has this team adhere to night in and night out. Let’s mop this mess up.

– The most telling move the Blackhawks made tonight was starting Nick Seeler over Adam Boqvist. Boqvist had a bad game last night. On a team whose fate and direction aren’t as nebulous as the Hawks’s, you understand that move at least a little bit. But starting Seeler over Boqvist in a must-win game (as pretty much all of these games will be going forward) is the most concrete evidence that the front office truly, unironically believes that this is a playoff-caliber roster.

This is the kind of move you make when you earnestly believe that you are just a roster tweak away from making the playoffs. Had this team fully committed to grooming the next core, they would have chalked Boqvist’s night last night up to “being fucking 19.” Instead, in a game they had to win, they slotted Seeler—who was about as good as you could have hoped—over what is supposed to be the defenseman of the future for this team.

If you had any doubt about what this team thinks it is—and you should, since they’ve claimed there is no plan, only a process—tonight should have made it clear. The front office thinks this team can eke into the playoffs. We should judge everything it does from here on out on that basis. If this were a team that realized the chance to make a real run passed them by before last night’s game, you’d have seen Boqvist out there trying to learn from his mistakes. We didn’t, so we can only assume that they believe this is a playoff roster.

It’s not, and when they don’t make the playoffs, everyone should be fired for that failure.

– But hey, the Blackhawks still have the high-end talent that lays the foundation of a playoff team. And it all starts and ends with Patrick Kane, who kept the Hawks in it with two outstanding plays.

On Carpenter’s goal, you got a look at why Patrick Kane will go down in history as the best player to ever lace them up for the Blackhawks. He charged up the near boards, shook Pionk out of his skates around the dot, then fired a bad-angle pass from the goal line that crawled up Carpenter’s stick and in. You’re not going to see plays like that for years from the Hawks after Kane retires.

– On the Hawks’s second goal, you saw Kane do Kane things and Toews do Toews things, dropping a perfect pass through two defenders in the slot. But the thing that ought to impress most was Dominik Kubalik’s patience on the play.

Kubalik draws Kulikov to him with his patience, giving Toews the half step he needed to streak past. Then, Kubalik feathered a pass that gave Toews the chance to drop his perfect pass back. The Hawks have found something special in Kubalik, and when he’s given the chance, he usually delivers.

– There’s not anything Corey Crawford can do about giving up three redirected goals. The only one you can probably even be mad about would be the first goal, and you wouldn’t be mad at Crawford. You’d be mad at the Hawks’s inability to clear the puck and allowing sustained pressure. But you’ve heard that song too many times before now.

Tonight was a perfect representation of what the Hawks are. They’re a high-end talent team that needs every puck bounce to go right to win games. They had three bad bounces and lost. But the fact that they’re benching their D-man of the future for performance shows that they really think this is a playoff team with a tweak here and a healthy scratch there.

It’s a different story if the Hawks go into this game with six points instead of two. But they didn’t, and so now we’re stuck watching a team that both thinks it’s truly in a playoff run and that putting Nick Seeler in over Adam Boqvist is a solution to a problem.

This is our concern, dude.

Beer du Jour: Yeti Imperial Stout

Line of the Night: “Rides up Carpenter’s SHAFT.” –Burish on Carp’s goal

Hockey

Game #57 – An Ache in Your Soul, It’s Everybody’s Goal to Get What They Can’t Have – Hawks 0, Canucks 3

By John Pullega 1618 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

They had 49 shots. They had the puck for almost 70% of the game. They scored zero goals.

They were two points out of a playoff spot just a couple of weeks ago. They have now lost five in a row and have next to no shot.

They aren’t bad because they’re inconsistent. They’re inconsistent because they’re bad.

– At the beginning of the year, the Hawks were an at-best bubble team whose only real shot at a playoff run was the offense bailing out the defense. Tonight was a microcosm of what happens when it can’t. Despite allowing just 19 shots on goal, it was the hideous combination of lack of blue line talent and quite possibly the worst system in the NHL that did the Blackhawks in. Look at what the system shat out on the Canucks’s first goal.

That’s Slater Koekkoek, a defenseman, above the dot covering J.T. Miller on the penalty kill. This is by design. Having a D-man on the PK going up to cover an obscenely low-chance shot instead of the motherfucking slot is what Jeremy Colliton is asking him to do. Holy shit, look at how much space Sutter and Horvat have. It lost them the game.

Here’s another coverage play following Caggiula getting leveled and turning the puck over. Once again, Slater Koekkoek leaves a high-danger area to cover a man in a low-danger spot. Just look at this.

Why? Why are you pointing in this direction instead of sagging back? Because this is what Jeremy Colliton wants him to do. It’s absurd, and it lost them the game. We all know that Slater Koekkoek sucks in general. But a system that accentuates his suck (and the general suckage on the blue line) is something Colliton has direct control over. And he just keeps fucking it up. Over and over again.

We can go on about how Zach Smith and Ryan Carpenter each got more time than Brandon Saad—the Hawks’s hottest scorer over the last eight games, mind you—on the power play. In fact, Saad had no power play time at all. But it really doesn’t matter.

This blue line is too bad, the system is too fucked, and Jeremy Colliton is too blockheaded to fix anything. The best thing he’s done all year is scratch Seabrook, and the shelf life on that accomplishment has passed. He’s walking whiskey dick: a constant tease buried under a mountain of failed deliveries and broken promises. We all saw it coming, and it somehow still stings.

– Corey Crawford did what he could, and that’s all he can do. It’s going to suck watching him leave on these terms.

– Kirby Dach’s hands are still excellent. Once he learns that he can’t make that one extra move he could in juniors, he’s going to score more. He’s a small bright spot to look forward to for the rest of the year.

– Dominik Kubalik is getting first unit power play time thanks to DeBrincat’s struggles, apparently. Though Colliton may not realize it, he IS allowed to put Kubalik and DeBrincat on the same unit, if only he could find a place for Zach Smith and Ryan Carpenter. Kubalik didn’t score, but he wasn’t afraid to shoot, at least.

– Adam Boqvist looked more confident bringing the puck up the ice tonight. He made a few juke moves that ought to make the drop pass obsolete. But until this pretty lunkhead gets the heave-ho, it won’t matter.

What had looked like a relatively weak schedule and a chance to squeak into a weak Conference’s last wild card spot now looks like a month and a half of agony; a slow, painful death rattle that’ll deliver enough slop to let these fucking pigs in the front office think they can still compete. But they can’t, because their coach is a bonafide moron who—despite efforts to convince myself otherwise—really is as bad as we all thought.

Fucking 49 shots. Nearly 70% possession. No goals, and two systemic defensive flaws leading to a loss.

Ya blew it, Jeremy. Ya blew it.

Beer du Jour: Death by King Cake

Line of the Night: “But it was floppin’ around on him.” -Foley on a DeBrincat dump pass.

Hockey

Clearly I Remember Picking on the Boy: Re-Evaluating Jeremy Colliton

By John Pullega 2388 0

The Blackhawks were on their biggest tear of the year before the break. They won five of their last six and 12 of their last 18, with 10 of those 12 wins coming in regulation. During their five-game winning streak, four of the five wins were definitive, with just one win against the lowly Senators coming in overtime. That put the Hawks within three points of the last wild card spot (as of this writing). Hope abounds.

What, if anything, has Jeremy Colliton had to do with it?

We ask this question because we’ve been harsh on him all year. The organ-I-zation, beat writers, and even some of us (read: me) entered the year with a “Give him a training camp” attitude. When Colliton and his Crew came out of camp at 3-5-2—or seven losses in 10 games, because getting a point for losing is horseshit—it became clear that the “magic training camp” wasn’t really a thing, and we lost our asses.

Since then, the results have been hot and cold. A four-win streak followed by a 1-5-1 streak. Two extra-time wins followed by an 0-3-1. Each losing streak complemented with a “We need more effort” from their one-time wunderkind. Is he getting that effort now, or is he just getting out of his own way? I wanted to know, so now we’re going to do this together.

We’ll break this season into two parts: opening day through December 14 (33 games total), and December 15 through now (18 games). All of the Big Blackhawks Media have taken a liking to using December 15 as a touchpoint, and so we will do that, too. We’ll look primarily at high-level counting stats (goals for, goals allowed), team analytics (CF%, GF% vs. xGF%), and any big changes in personnel that Colliton had direct control over (line combos and TOI but NOT NECESSARILY individual player performance).

The Numbers

Team Stats 5v5 Goals For Goals Allowed GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 58 69 45.67 60.81 47.56
12/15–Now 47 39 54.65 47.35 49.33

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Wouldn’t you know it, over the recent nice stretch, the Hawks have outscored their opponents, rather than getting outscored like they were at the beginning of the year. We’ve solved it, thanks for reading.

What’s fascinating is the why behind the goals. The Hawks are scoring goals at a nearly 9% higher rate over the last 18 games. And look at the difference between the xGF%s.

Quick aside, xGF% stands for expected goals for percentage. The important thing to know about it is that it measures shot quality (e.g., a point shot is typically lower quality than a shot off a rebound) and uses that to try to predict the likelihood of an actual goal scored.

So, the inversion of GF% and xGF% between the two time frames sure is curious. The Hawks should have scored more than they did during the first time frame, and they’re now scoring more than they should during this second time frame. Why?

Part of it is strength of schedule. Through today, the Hawks have had a slightly more challenging schedule than most other teams, based on points percentages. Another part of it is PDO. For the first time frame, the Hawks’s PDO was an even 1.000. From December 15 onward, the Hawks’s PDO is 1.024, good for fourth overall in the league. The difference has been the Hawks’s shooting percentage, which has skyrocketed from around 7% all the way up to 10%.

But these aren’t things Colliton can really control. What he CAN control for the most part is which players get the most ice time.

ATOI Rank 10/04–12/14 TTOI ATOI 12/15–Now TTOI ATOI
1 Keithⴕ (25) 456:24 18:16 Keithⴕ (17) 308:48 18:10
2 Murphyⴕ (21) 365:40 17:25 Murphy (18) 324:07 18:01
3 Kane (33) 555:49 16:50 Gus (18) 303:45 16:53
4 de Haanⴕ (29) 485:19 16:44 Kane (18) 290:55 16:10
5 Gus (32) 530:46 16:35 Maatta (17) 262:55 15:28
6 Maattaⴕ (29) 457:15 15:46 Boqvist (17) 244:25 14:23
7 Seabrook (31) 483:09 15:35 Toews (18) 245:40 13:39
8 Cat (33) 464:22 14:04 Dach (18) 236:15 13:08
9 Toews (33) 442:30 13:25 Kubalik (18) 230:13 12:47
10 Stromeⴕ (29) 386:31 13:20 Cat (18) 229:34 12:45
11 Saad (33) 423:34 12:50 Carp (18) 213:51 11:53
12 Kampf (33) 384:48 11:40 Kampf (18) 200:54 11:10

ⴕ = suffered injury at some point during stretch. Stats calculated using NaturalStatTrick.com

The biggest difference between then and now is the emergence of Kubalik and Dach in terms of how much they’re playing. (Boqvist too, but he’s had only half the time of the other two, so let’s revisit him at the end of the year.) Since December 15, Kubalik and Dach have averaged almost two full minutes more of ice time apiece. They’ve also established themselves on what you could call the top six, if you look at the line up as follows over the last 18 games:

Kubalik–Toews–Caggiula/Kane

DeBrincat–Dach–Kampf/Kane

Saad–Carpenter–Kane

Nylander–Smith–Highmore/Caggiula

Though Kane has averaged slightly less ice time during the latest run, Colliton still likes to double shift him whenever he can, which you can see as a function of his 5v5 average time on ice. Because Kane has superhuman endurance and has consistently outperformed his xGF% throughout his career, it’s hard to blame him. But more encouraging is that Dach and Kubalik are getting chances that they weren’t at the beginning of the year. It may have taken him longer than we’d have liked, but Colliton has gotten that right recently.

This implies that with more time and the right teammates, Colliton has begun to give what portends to be The New Core the chance to try shit. You might recall Kubalik getting scratched a few times earlier in the season for simply unfathomable reasons. This trend ceased around the second week in December, or just prior to Kubalik’s scoring binge. Just check out the differences between the time frames:

Kubalik Goals Assists GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 6 3 50 53.68 50.22
12/15–Now 11 5 57.14 49.93 51.39

5v5 from NaturalStatTrick.com

Though you likely don’t need a fucking chart to tell you that Dominik Kubalik is not a third liner, there it is. Kubalik is starting to do what most good shooters do: pot shots that shouldn’t be going in. Colliton coming to Jesus on that has been helpful to the Hawks’s recent success, even if it took him way too long to get there.

It’s a similar story for Kirby Dach, though much more subtle.

Dach Goals Assists GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 5 4 47.83 43.8 46.32
12/15–Now 2 1 56.25 47.54 49.45

5v5 from NaturalStatTrick.com

The counting stats are down, but the fancy stats have gotten better as Dach has both settled in and settled into a more defensively responsible role. Granted, he’ll need to up the offense, but credit Colliton for giving Dach more time as the year has progressed.

The Penalty Kill

The Hawks have the sixth-best penalty kill in the league as of this writing. Given how horrible their blue has been and continues to be, this may not make a ton of sense. But the numbers on this make it pretty easy to figure out why.

First, here are the splits between the time frames:

PK% PK Rank PK SV% PK HDSV% PK TIME
10/04–12/14 80.4 14th 87.93 77.55 175:59
12/15–Now 88.6 1st 92.31 94.12 77:39

From NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.com

A couple things to note. First, the Hawks are currently taking fewer penalty minutes during the recent run. At the current pace, if you extrapolate what they’ve been doing, the Hawks will end up taking about 141 penalty minutes over the same time frame (33 games) going forward. That’s about 34 fewer minutes on the kill, or 17 fewer minor penalties.

But this doesn’t explain the huge spikes in save percentages. Some of that has to do with Crawford’s horrid performance in the first half of the year. In the second half, Colliton has leaned more on Lehner, who has been nails on the PK all year. So, we can give Colliton credit for that.

But the answer is much easier than even that. Here are all of Hawks who have averaged at least one minute of PK time per game, along with their respective goals allowed per 60 (GA/60).

ATOI GA/60
Murphy 2:43 5
de Haan 2:41 5.5
Keith 2:37 6
Carpenter 2:24 5.5
Kampf 2:10 6.5
Toews 1:58 5.3
Maatta 1:51 5.6
Saad 1:50 6.7
Seabrook 1:31 11.2
Smith 1:14 6.6
Gilbert 1:13 4.9
Koekkoek 1:12 8.5

From hockey-reference.com

The NHL average for GA/60 usually falls between 5 and 6. Brent Seabrook’s 11.2 is simply horrifying, especially when you see that he averaged a minute and a half on the PK when he was still playing.

In fact, according to hockey-reference.com, of players who averaged at least one minute of PK time and who played at least 10 games, only the following were worse:

To give you an idea for what that means, everyone on that list aside from de la Rose (STL from DET) and Lindblom (who played with fucking bone cancer) belongs to one of the seven worst PK units in the league.

So, simply getting Seabrook off the PK likely had the greatest effect on its success, and his last game was on December 15. The defense still blows, but without Seabrook, it blows less.

Conclusion

Essentially, Colliton has done two things to change the team during this hot stretch:

    1. Healthy-scratched Seabrook three times, causing him to need two hip surgeries and one shoulder surgery
    2. Played Dach, Kubalik, and Boqvist more and higher on the depth chart

 

Getting Seabrook off the ice is probably the thing Colliton has done that’s had the greatest effect. We can argue about how he never really communicated with Seabrook about the scratches and how that’s shitty given Seabrook’s legendary status overall. But it’s obviously better for the team that Seabrook is off the ice, and Colliton clearly had a hand in that decision making. That’s a big move that he could have handled better, but a big move nonetheless.

You can credit him for playing Dach and Boqvist and letting them get their feet wet. Dach has taken to it better than Boqvist so far.

It’s hard to give him too much credit for promoting Kubalik, since he’s always shown that he belongs in the Top 6. You can’t help but wonder whether this scoring purge would have happened sooner had Colliton not dicked around with him so he could slot Nylander with Toews earlier in the year.

In short, Colliton’s contributions to this recent run of success amount to finally putting and keeping Kubalik on the top line, scratching his biggest anchor, and getting elite performances from elite players.

Patrick Kane is on a tear. Jonathan Toews has been on fire with Kubalik, who’s doing exactly what everyone but Jeremy Colliton thought he would do at the beginning of the year. Robin Lehner continues to play Vezina-level hockey. This is sort of what they’ve always done, even before Colliton.

Scratching Seabrook and elevating Kubalik were past-due epiphanies that clearly helped the team. Those are steps in the right direction. But his system still sucks, as shown by the fact that the Hawks are in the top 10 for both goals allowed (10th) and save percentage (6th). Until he fixes that latter part, it’s hard to totally buy in.

Hockey

Game #50 – Jets vs Hawks Preview – Relative Surplus Value

By Matt McClure 1567 0

vs

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, SportsNet, NHL Network, WGN-AM 720
Winnipeg Nights: Arctic Ice Hockey, Jets Nation

Similar to The Gambler’s Fallacy (of being “due”), when a team is mediocre-to-bad, nearly every game represents the potential for turning things around. The periphery of the playoff picture in the NHL is the very definition of the bare minimum of competence as far as sports are concerned, and the Hawks have once again put together a handful of wins against a cornucopia of teams somehow even worse than they are, and one win last night against a supposed contender, albeit one whose number they seem to have and has a blue line beset by injuries. So naturally that sets them up for a divisional matchup against the visiting Jets tonight where they could creep even closer to a wild card spot in the proverbial four-point game, the type of game they have found stunningly impressive ways to shit themselves in under Coach Cool Youth Pastor in the past season and a half.

Hockey

Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

By Adam Hess 1693 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

These kinds of wins from the Hawks are always simultaneously thrilling and frustrating. Obviously, skullfucking any opponent that is so much better than the Hawks on paper like the Leafs appear to be feels incredible, but then you check some of the metrics on the game and they seem to tell something of a different story. On top of that, it makes you wonder where performances like these are the rest of the season. But I also don’t want to complain about awesome wins like this. Let’s do it:

THE BULLETS

– His surge of late has been so sudden and seemingly out of nowhere, that I am still consistently in shock about Dominik Kubalik coming on so strong recently. Before the season I felt like he would be a solid middle-six contributor, but recently he really seems to be hitting a stride and showing that he might be a bit more than that. His second goal tonight, batting the puck of thin air and into the net, was some incredible shit and personally I would like to see if he can play right field on the South Side with contact skills like that. Hopefully this isn’t just a scoring surge that will peter out and really is the result of a strong coming-out campaign.

– On top of that, Jonathan Toews is continuing his Fuck You Tour from last year, adding another four points tonight that give him 43 total in 49 games this year. His first goal was literally just him telling the entire Leafs roster to eat his dust, going full on Fuck It mode and undressing Freddy Andersen, and his second was him doing that *again* for good measure. Don’t let any dumb motherfuckers tell you that he is not good at hockey, and if people do tell you that, call them a dumb motherfucker.

– Patrick Kane added himself a point to get within one of 1000 on his career, but overall he had something of a rough night. It felt to me like he was pressing really hard to get that 1000th point once he got 999, but through that pressing he was making a lot of bad plays in the offensive zone. I hope he gets that point ASAP – preferably though a goal – so we don’t have to deal with that kinda stuff much more going forward.

– William Nylander was far and away the best player for the Leafs tonight while Alex was basically unnoticeable, which is further reminder that the Blackhawks trading Henri Jokiharju for the wrong Nylander.

– Andersen had such a bad night, and the Leafs have had such a strange up-and-down goaltending season, that Geek Boy Dubas should not let Robin Lehner leave town if he knows what is good for his roster. Just give the Hawks your first round pick and move on with the season.

– Hawks go again tomorrow, hosting the Jets. Until then.

Hockey

Game #48: Hawks 4, Canadiens 1 – Insert Spiderman Meme Here

By Rose Rankin 2176 0

We know exactly what it feels like to be what the Habs were tonight…dominant in possession yet unable to capitalize on the power play and losing to a mediocre team. The difference is, the Hawks have excellent goaltending and Montreal most certainly did not. Although Crawford (great as he was) isn’t the only story tonight. Some fourth-line luck and decent special teams work did what they’re supposed to do, and were enough for a win. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–It’s hard to believe I’m writing this, but Zack Smith was the difference-maker tonight, proving that there really is a first time for everything. But hey, good for him, right? Early in the first, he and Drake Caggiula took advantage of Charlie Lindgren being Charlie Lindgren when there was a bad turnover behind the Habs net on the PK, and it resulted in Smith scoring a short-handed goal. Then Smith potted another (even strength) goal barely three minutes later, and it was undoubtedly the best period of his life. It’s easy to laugh at the situation, or laugh at the Habs for letting this bum score twice on them, but honestly it was downright refreshing to have someone different step up and score. Especially with this being the second of a back-to-back, having the fourth line eat up some minutes and be productive while doing so was exactly what was needed.

–Related: when Drake Caggiula scores on you, you suck. Sorry, Lindgren, but it’s true.

–On the other hand, Dominik Kubalik suddenly couldn’t buy a goal, and not for lack of trying. He had three shots, all of which would have been easy goals, well, last night or any game in the last little stretch here. They were those point-blank shots that make you wonder how it couldn’t possibly have gone in because given the laws of physics, it would seem much more likely that the puck would go in rather than stay out. In fact the top line as a whole struggled to find the back of the net, and it was when Caligula moved off the top line that he did end up scoring. It’s really not a big deal (who gives a shit if they don’t score in one game?), but my concern is that Coach Cool Youth Pastor will use this as proof that Kubalik-Toews-Kane isn’t the right combo for the top line because they didn’t score in the .02 seconds they had on the ice together. But here goes dumb ‘ole Caggiula scoring so he’ll be back on the top line by Saturday.

–Adam Boqvist had a couple nice plays, although the stats were rather ugly for the night. In the first period he saved a goal when Crawford got lost in space and couldn’t make it back to the far post in time, and it was a good keep by Boqvist at the blue line that set up Top Cat’s power play goal in the second. He flashed some speed but finished with a miserable 24 CF%, so cherry pick whatever you want from that information. Our other tender-age star, Kirby Dach, had a no-good very bad game. In the first, he broke his stick on an power play attempt, right in the slot and you could practically hear the sad trombone sound, and he followed it up by taking a penalty a few seconds later to negate the advantage for the Hawks. Even beyond that, he fumbled shots, and his line with DeBrincat and Kampf only managed a 38 CF% at evens. Like the top line, it was nothing to get upset about–both Boqvist and Dach are going to have games like this–but it’s becoming worrisome that Dach has struggled for a couple weeks because he needs confidence and decent coaching at this impressionable stage. Right now he seems to be sorely lacking both.

–Corey Crawford was outstanding as usual in Montreal. Admittedly he looked a little shaky in the first, particularly when he fell on his ass behind the net, all by himself, but it obviously only injured his pride. Losing his net when Boqvist had to bail him out was also concerning, but when it mattered most he was lights-out. He finished with a .970 SV%, and the one goal he did give up came in the midst of the Habs completely running over the Toews line, in one of the stretches where it felt like the Hawks were dispossessed for hours at a time (there were many of these). For all the Habs’ dominance in possession, he was up to the task the rest of the time with a number of excellent saves, and overcame some rebound issues early on. People can sing Lehner’s praises all they want, but Crawford is god.

–It was good to see DeBrincat score, especially on a power play. Nothing earth-shattering, but let’s take what we can get.

So far, so good on this road trip. Or train trip, which the broadcast wouldn’t shut the fuck up about. They honestly sounded like old-timey boosters describing the wonders of the new iron horse, as if millions of people don’t take trains every damn day (and as if professional soccer teams in Europe don’t use them constantly to get to games). Dumbasses. But hey, wins are wins, so onward and upward…

Hockey

Game #47 – You Don’t Have to be Beautiful to Turn Me On – Hawks 2, Senators 2 (Hawks Win Whatever It Is They Do for Fun in Ottawa)

By John Pullega 1670 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

It took about 30 minutes, but the Hawks came roaring back against a team that hadn’t won a game since December 23 to win their third game after trailing through two periods. Never mind that the Senators are a divot full of wastewater runoff. Two points is two points. Let’s.

– Someone ought to give Mats Hallin a number just so we can retire it. He’s struck gold once again with Dominik Kubalik, who continues to complement his booming shot with speed and the exact kind of toughness along the boards and in front of the net that make things move in the nethers. He’s now on a six-game points streak and a five-game goals streak. He has 10 points over those six games and a cumulative 61+ CF% over those six. Tonight, he was second among all Hawks forwards in CF% (76+), led everyone in the universe with a literally unbelievable 96.87 xGF%, and had nine shots on goal.

He’s been dominant recently when given the chance.

– Which is why someone needs to tell Jeremy Colliton that absolutely no one tunes in to watch him put on Kissinger’s toilet glasses and flex his Throbbing Genious Brain. Look at the game flow chart here:

This is where Colliton stopped playing with his pud and put Kane with Kubalik and Toews. Who would have thought that loading up your top line against one of the NHL’s urinals would lead to complete dominance going forward? This “spreading out the scoring” horseshit only works when you have forward depth, and the Hawks absolutely do not have that. If the Hawks want to continue this playoff-team farce—and whatever, I’m here to watch them win—Colliton must stop trying to show everyone how fucking smart he thinks he is.

Ryan Carpenter is a fine fourth liner. Alex Nylander sucks. Patrick Kane should never be playing with either of them. Keep Kubalik–Toews–Kane together. This isn’t fucking difficult.

– Drake Caggiula had himself a great game. He led all skaters in 5v5 possession with an 88+ CF%. He also had a hilarious 94+ xGF%. He’s another fine bottom six guy who can contribute when not asked to play so far out of his element. He exceled when Coach Gemstone finally slotted him off the top line. It’s doubly encouraging that he did so well in just his third game back from the land of wind and ghosts. Yeah, it’s Ottawa, but whatever. Gotta start somewhere.

– Friendly reminder that the Blackhawks could have traded Erik Gustafsson at any point during the season before the deadline last year. Or during the off-season. Instead, we get to watch him get turned inside out in the slot by Chris Tierney for absolutely no good reason on the Sens’s second goal. You may have been willing to forgive such atrocious coverage when he was putting up 60 points, but he’s not going to do that ever again. There aren’t any other options because Stan Bowman is a moron, but it’s nonetheless agonizing.

– Jonathan Toews put up another good game tonight. It’s amazing what he can do when he’s not forced to drag AHLers and glorified fourth liners around. His 71+ CF% and 96+ xGF% tonight were a feast for the nerds. And he was easy on the eyes, contributing to every single goal the Hawks scored.

On the first, he won the puck behind the net and flung a crisp pass to the slot. Kubalik missed on it, but it found a waiting Kane, who ricocheted a shot off Kubalik’s shin pads.

On the second, Toews dropped a two-line stretch pass onto Kubalik’s stick, who exploded through the neutral zone for his second goal. No muss, no fuss.

And of course, Toews pantsed Hogberg in OT. An all-around outstanding performance from the captain.

It was more of a struggle than it needed to be, but when Colliton got out of his own way, the Hawks pulled it out. We can only watch and wonder whether he will keep his most dominant line together tomorrow night in Montreal, and if they want to keep flirting with the idea of going to the playoffs, there’s no excuse not to.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Kalamazoo Stout

Line of the Night: “I heard there might be some beer on that train.” –Steve Konroyd describing the train ride the Hawks are taking to Montreal

Hockey

Atop the Sugar Pile – Post-Holiday Hangover

By Rose Rankin 1603 0

It’s time again for the good, the bad and the decent in the world of the Blackhawks…

The Dizzying Highs

Dominik Kubalik. With two goals in Saturday night’s win over the Ducks, Kubalik tied Victor Olofsson for the league lead in goals for a rookie. He’s had five goals in his last four games, and in the game before the goal streak began, he had a playmaker with three assists. Kubalik is doing good things away from the puck, too. Tying up the d-men at center ice helped set the stage for Toews’s goal on Saturday, and his possession at evens is at 50.2 CF%, and that’s with less than half of his starts coming in the offensive zone (47.1 oZS%). On a good team, Dominik Kubalik would be a role player on a hot streak. On THIS team, however, he’s an elite player who has firmly earned his place on the top line. But it’s a hot streak nonetheless and the Hawks need all the help they can get.

The Terrifying Lows

Jeremy Colliton. It seems too easy, right? Maybe it is. It’s easy to knock the coach of any team anytime things go sideways, and it’s really easy to knock a neophyte with a turd of a roster that needs to be polished. However, at this point there are serious issues with Jeremy Colliton’s decision-making that any Hawks fan or observer should raise. I’ve railed about them in game wraps recently, so let’s summarize: first, lineup choices. Colliton’s loathing of Dylan Sikura makes no sense. The guy finally popped his scoring cherry and is still in the press box. Ostensibly, this was the complaint about Sikura, although that view just shows you how little the Hawks’ brass values speed in a player. So fine–you hate him. You clearly need to trade him because what good is he if he doesn’t play nor do you get a player you don’t hate to replace him? But by marooning Sikura in the press box, Colliton isn’t even increasing his trade value by showcasing whatever skills he has to less stupid coaches and GMs. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Second, line composition. Again, I’ve bitched about this plenty but the fact remains that Patrick Kane isn’t a third liner and shouldn’t be stuck with Flotsam and Jetsam. Even he can’t make Alex Nylander look good. David Kampf is not a winger and isn’t helping Kirby Dach or Alex DeBrincat, nor is he providing the help at center that the team actually needs. And John Quenneville isn’t an NHL player, much less a top liner. The sensible choice is pretty damn clear (8-19-88; 12-77-95; Kampf centering two oafs; Carpenter centering the remaining two oafs), yet Colliton’s willful ignorance of this–or anything at least close to this–has long passed any excuse of greenness or knowing something that others don’t. It’s just bad coaching. Oh, and he can’t count how many guys are on the ice at a given time either.

The Creamy Middles

Jonathan Toews. If Kubalik wasn’t going off right now, Toews could be considered the team’s best player over these last couple games. He’s had four points in his last two, and he did some standout work defensively on the PK against the Flames earlier in the week. Since the start of the new year, he’s got a 58.2 CF%, which leads all forwards with the exception of Caggiula and Nylander (??), but those two have had exponentially less ice time than Toews. Captain Marvelous has had over 67 minutes on the ice, while Caggiula played 20 minutes in one game and Nylander’s had barely 30 minutes in that time, so they can fuck off.  It’s still a truism that Toews can’t always deliver both offensively and defensively, but recently he’s been managing it, so let’s enjoy it.

Hockey

Game #46: Ducks 2, Hawks 4 – And I’ll Be Satisfied Not To Read In Between The Lines

By Rose Rankin 1902 0

They’re not bad because they’re inconsistent, they’re inconsistent because…well, tonight I won’t bother to finish that sentence. The Hawks beat a crappy team, as they should, so let’s take what we can get, right? To the bullets…

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Early on, it felt like things were going to go off the rails again when Max Jones scored less than five minutes in. But the Hawks righted things well enough, to the point that while their play in the first can’t be described as “good,” it can be described as “not horrible.” Jonathan Toews had a great opportunity where he actually shot the puck through John Gibson‘s five hole but it bounced off the post in some weird quirk of physics. But, he made up for it minutes later with a wrist shot, again five-hole, but buried it straight up. The best part was, he was on a 2-on-1 with John Quenneville and at no time in the entire sequence did he even pretend like he was going to pass it to Quenneville. He was absolutely right in his decision-making, but the lack of even the slightest pretense was great.

–Dominik Kubalik is tied for the league lead in rookie goals. He now has scored five goals in his last four games, two of which came tonight so he was basically the difference maker and was deservedly the first star of the game. The first goal was off a beautiful backhand feed from Patrick Kane, who’s got a six-game scoring streak of his own going, and the second was a tap-in of a rebound off a long shot from Zack Smith. Kubalik has made it impossible for Colliton to reduce his ice time or maroon him in the bottom six, which you could just tell this doofus was itching to do, and that brings joy to my cold, black heart. The team really tried to get him a hat trick with an empty netter, but you know how empty net attempts go for the Hawks. No big deal anyway, Kubalik was great tonight.

–Adam Boqvist had a good night too, or at least, a much better night than his last game. In the second, Keith had his stick vaporize in his hands, giving the Ducks an easy breakaway and Boqvist hustled to strip the puck, bailing out Keith and preventing even a shot on goal. He also generated a chance in the second, which was his only shot of the night but it was the kind of play we’re all looking for–a nice wrister from the dot after a nifty move into the zone. Boqvist finished with just a 41 CF% at evens and had the least ice time of any defenseman, but he was faster and more confident than Thursday against the Predators.

–Connor Murphy, on the other hand, did not have a good night. He gave up a couple bad turnovers, including one that led directly to Jones’s goal. And yet he had a 58 CF% so it wasn’t all bad, but it wasn’t passing the eye test, either.

–Robin Lehner looked excellent in his first game back after a bruised knee or bruised ego or whatever it was. He ended the night with a .946 SV% and made a number of key saves in the third to keep the Hawks in the lead (if the Ducks had tied this oh lord I don’t want to think of how that could have ended). There was a particularly crazy save on Gudbranson early in the third that you’ll see on highlight reels somewhere soon. All the way around, a quality start for Lehner.

–If Olli Maatta scores on you, you know you suck. That’s all I have to say.

They needed to win against this shitty team and they did. It doesn’t mean all their woes are solved but it’s better than losing to a shitty team, no? Onward and upward…

Line of the Night: “Getzlaf had a chance but instead of shooting, he tried to pass.” –Eddie O describing…Ryan Getzlaf’s MO

Beer du Jour: Beach Blonde lager, Crystal Lake Brewing

Hockey

Game #42 – I Told Ya I Was Trouble. You Know That I’m No Good – Hawks 5, Canucks 7

By John Pullega 1820 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

For a brief moment, it looked like the Hawks would rise to the occasion. They roared back from a deficit to take a two-goal lead over a team within sniffing distance of them for a playoff spot, then proceeded to cower and hope that their porous defense—which at no point during this season has shown capable of holding any kind of lead whatsoever—would hold the lead. After 53 minutes of burying his two most effective players in ice time, the Hawks’s hopefully soon-to-be former coach finally put Kane with them, and the Hawks teased another comeback, only to watch a depth forward get beat, fall out of position, and give Adam Gaudette a wide-open look for the game winner. A tale as old as time. Let’s clean it.

– Connor Murphy had himself a game and continues to impress as the Hawks’s only consistently useful defenseman. He led all Hawks defensemen in possession with a 55+ CF% (10+ CF% Rel) despite having to drag Erik Gustafsson’s cratering trade value on his back for most of the night. And he scored his fourth goal of the year after Toews and Kubalik (much more on them later) dug the puck out of the end boards and slot, respectively. Murphy’s been a paragon of consistency this year when he’s been healthy.

– Duncan Keith also had a good game. He was a bit underwater in possession (47+%) and xGF% (48+), but he made two outstanding plays to make up for it. After shooting the puck too hard to the far side, Keith hurried back to snuff out a 2-on-1. Then, in the third, Keith made a gorgeous steal on the near boards at neutral ice and chipped the puck to Kubalik, who danced around a defender at the blue line and left the puck for Kane, who buried his wrister. Keith’s looked spry lately, and that’s never a bad thing.

– Jonathan Toews had himself a hell of a game tonight. Aside from doing yeoman’s work behind the net while setting up Murphy’s goal, Toews managed to bank a puck off Quinn Hughes for a goal after juking Alex Edler out of his elbows along the far boards. Toews led all Blackhawks with an astounding 70+ CF% and was second only to Kubalik in xGF% (60.45 vs. 60.75).

– Dominik Kubalik will likely carry the torch of least respected contributor once Corey Crawford leaves town. Despite three primary assists, leading the team in xGF%, and the second-best CF% (68+), Kubalik managed merely 10:42 TOI at 5v5 and 12:19 total. Only David Kampf (expected), Matthew Highmore (who blows), and John Quenneville (who sucks and blows) had fewer minutes at 5v5. I would love to know exactly what it is that Hopefully Soon-to-Be Former Coach Bevington doesn’t like about Kubalik, but whatever it is, it’s inexcusable.

In fact, through two periods, Toews and Kubalik, who dominated in possession and expected goals all night, were among some of the lowest ice-time receivers among all Blackhawks. Sure, Toews has special teams time, but it’s as if rather than promoting Quenneville to the first line, Colliton actually demoted his two best players throughout the game to the fourth line. This kind of galaxy brain shit isn’t cute. I get wanting to play Dach, Strome, and DeBrincat more—which is something Colliton did try to do through two—but that shouldn’t mean that your two best fucking players are getting the short shaft on ice time. To the surprise of perhaps only Jeremy Colliton, once Kubalik and Toews got to play with Kane, it turned into an almost immediate goal. When playing a game you’ve got to have, you can’t wait 53 fucking minutes to do this. Dylan Sikura and Ryan Carpenter may be fine players, but they should not be on a line with Patrick Kane on purpose for a majority of a must-win game.

On top of this horseshit, nary a compliment did Eddie have for Kubalik at any point. I don’t understand why no one seems to like him, but he was a top performer tonight.

– Speaking of Ryan Carpenter, it was a tough one for him tonight. Though it’s not his fault that his coach needed to flex his throbbing genious brain and have Carpenter take a defensive-zone faceoff in a 4–3 game following a TV timeout . . . actually, let’s stay there for a second. Carpenter has a 47+ FO% this year. Toews is at 56+%, and Kampf is at 52%. Following a TV timeout, after the Canucks have seized momentum, Hopefully Soon-to-Be Former Coach Gemstone throws his second-worst faceoff guy out there with Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, and Erik Gustafsson. Let that marinate for a second, because you can taste the fucking stupidity.

Anyway, Carpenter lost the faceoff then completely lost his man in Pettersson, who launched a set-play rocket past Lehner for the tying goal. Then, he got pantsed by Adam Gaudette along the near boards for the game winner in the third. Carpenter is a fine player, but tonight wasn’t his night.

– I’m just as tired of talking about him as you are of hearing about him, and there’s no real alternative, but Dennis Gilbert fucking blows. Four of the Canucks’s five goals resulted from Gilbert’s positioning. On the first, Gilbert had the inside track on Vesser with the puck ringing around the boards behind the Hawks’s net. And Gilbert just let him go by. Then, he went chasing a hit after Vesser passed the puck out, leaving J.T. Miller untouched for a tip.

On the second goal, Gilbert turned the puck over behind his own net and went chasing a hit again, giving Virtanen time to pass out to Edler. On the third goal, which was a PK, Gilbert inexplicably ended up at the top of the circles to pressure J.T. Miller, leaving a wide-open lane for Quinn Hughes. And on the fifth goal, the puck redirected off Gilbert’s skate, which you can’t really blame him for, but fuck him I’m going to.

– Friendly reminder that the Hawks could have traded Erik Gustafsson at any time last year or during the off-season and gotten probably at least a second rounder for him. So it goes.

– Adam Boqvist’s assist on Kane’s first goal was excellent, but aside from that, he’s a kid playing scared. Whether that’s just jitters or by design, each game we see him hug the blue line on the power play makes us that much antsier. By no means have or should we give up on him so, so early, but something is off about the way he’s playing, based on what they told us he was.

Of course, all of this can and should be pinned on Hopefully Soon-to-Be Former Coach Jeremy Colliton. From yet another too-many-men penalty that led to a technically even-strength goal, to his abysmal use of his two best players, to his cowardice with a lead, to coaching scared against a team he had to beat, he continues to find ways to Lucy the football.

This supposed soft schedule doesn’t mean shit if the Hawks continue to piss in their shoes. A loss to Detroit on Sunday should be a fireable offense for all involved.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Gumballhead

Line of the Night: “Now, he’s got some people coming on him.” –Konroyd describing a play by Sikura in the pregame show.