Hockey

Play-In Game #3 – Go Off On Somebody So That Hell CAN Break Loose On Your Ass – Hawks 4, Oilers 3

By John Pullega 2065

It was sloppy. It was confusing. It was a total fucking rush. Warts and all, the Blackhawks are now a win away from advancing to the next round of the playoffs. I’m way too drunk to taste this chicken, so let’s rush through whatever it was we just saw.

– As the Toews line goes, so go the Hawks. Each of Saad, Toews, and Kubalik ended up with 56+ CF%s at 5v5, and most of their time came against either McDavid or Draisaitl. Both McJesus and Leon the Ladies Man were underwater when up against the Toews line, which echoed the success the Hawks had in Game 1. It’s clear that when this line can possess the puck, the Hawks have a shot.

On top of it all, Jonathan Toews found himself in the right place at the right time twice tonight. Both of his goals were of the tip-in variety. On the first, he pulled a [insert whoever’s a good goal scorer in soccer here, I dunno, what’s that one guy’s name who committed tax fraud or whatever], toeing a loose puck past Koskinen without even knowing it. On the second, he tipped a point shot from our sweet boy CONNOR MURPHY for the game winner. This guy fucks.

And Saad had a game of almost himself, janking two pucks off the post. When this line is on, the Hawks can.

– Now THAT’S the Corey Crawford on whose hill I will die to have his number in the rafters. Despite The Harlem Draisaitls featuring Connor McDavid, Crawford managed to keep this fart-powered jalopy of a defense from completely dicking the outcome, with at least four high-quality saves at crucial junctures. Aside from a minor puck-handling snafu in the second, Crawford was poised and on his game all night. Had this been the Crawford of Games 1 or 2, the Hawks would have given up eight.

– Kirby Dach. It’s amazing what this kid can do when given the chance. He came up with just one “excuse me” primary assist, but he contributed so much more. He had a 54 CF% for one. He managed to enter the zone with speed on a power play in the second period, which is as monumental a feat as discovering extraterrestrial life that shits Cheesy Gordida Crunches. He even played a decent amount on the penalty kill. Whenever he’s on the ice, the Hawks tend to find success, and it’s been a joy watching him grow into what looks to be a legitimate #1 center for the future.

– Although we love the outcome, the process of getting there is untenable. While it’s little surprise that the Hawks managed just one power play goal on six motherfucking attempts, it’s the reason why that continues to annoy.

It’s cool that they managed to wet dream themselves a PP goal on a 5-on-3 with five forwards on the ice. But every other PP opportunity they had fell back into the old Carmelo Kane routine on the right-side boards. On top of that, Coach Nathan For You has continued to place Toews as a rover and Kubalik in the high slot, which is the exact opposite of each player’s strengths.

It’s easy to forget that the Hawks were a top 10 PP team last year. And as we discussed way back then, a lot of that had to do with Toews’s positioning in the high slot. He’s much more apt to tip a rebound or sweep a shot in than to fire one off a hard slapshot from the top circle like Kubalik can do. Had Coach Galaxy Brain had the wherewithal to understand that this was one the few things he’s managed to get right in his tenure, perhaps we don’t have to prolapse our collective anus in anticipation of a late game winner.

Dominik Kubalik ought to be the rover, not Toews.

– When the Blackhawks inevitably refuse to buy out Olli Maatta and point to his two goals in this series as justification, remember that he was not only on the ice for each of the Oilers’s three goals tonight but also a direct contributor to each of them.

On the first, Maatta tried to one-hand a pass up the end boards under pressure, despite knowing that the leading scorer in the entire goddamn motherfucking game was on the ice. While the puck took a funny hop off the end boards and eluded Koekkoek and Carpenter, there’s no reason for it to get to the point where Tyler Ennis (skypoint) can simply shovel a pass through the blue paint to a horny and prepared Draisaitl. But Maatta is too slow to catch up to plays like that. Thus.

On the second goal, Maatta had a front-row seat to watch Draisaitl pot a rebound after a good Crawford save following Highmore’s egregious turnover. If he had a speed greater than dripping pitch, it’s unlikely Draisaitl has a lane to crash as unopposed.

On the third goal, Maatta found himself on the penalty kill, which is a problem per se. Admittedly, it’s hard to blame Maatta for this one, given how fucking good Connor McDavid is. But also, the Hawks need to buy out Olli Maatta this off-season. So there.

–Feather’s guy Slater Koekkoek had himself a good night for Slater Koekkoek. He was a little bit underwater in possession, but he fired home the shot that Highmore tipped for the tying goal. That’s all you can ask.

– Alex Nylander was unnoticeable, which rules for a change.

Jesus Christ. It’s like losing to your virginity to a shy crush. Though McDavid and Draisaitl CAN do it all, if this Crawford shows up again on Friday, it might not fucking matter.

Drink that whiskey. Rock over London. Rock on, Chicago.

Booze du Jour: Firestone Nitro something, then about half a handle of Maker’s

Line of the Night: “He’s not going to beat you from out there.” –Jamal Mayers, describing an instance in which Leon Draisaitl beat Olli Maatta from “out there,” leading to McDavid’s PP goal.

Hockey

You Know Those Guitars That Are Like, Double Guitars? – Hawks at Oilers Game 2 Preview

By Matt McClure 1427

vs

Game Time: 9:30PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN, NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Rural Alberta Advantage: Copper n Blue, Oilers Nation

 

While it was pretty well assumed that the preliminary series between the Oilers and Hawks was going to have all the defensive structure of a Jackson Pollock rough draft, Saturday afternoon’s tilt showed just how silly this whole thing has the potential of getting in a hurry. And fortunately the Hawks came out on top putting the Oilers immediately on their heels in this short 5 game series.

Hockey

Play-In Game #1 – Rock ‘n’ Roll Ain’t Worth the Name If It Don’t Make You Strut – Hawks 6, Oilers 4

By John Pullega 2205

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

God damn it, I didn’t realize how much I missed this motherfucking game. From start to finish, it was a never-ending adrenaline rush of emotion. Before we get into the recap, an important reminder: We’re still in the middle of a pandemic. There are still millions of people who don’t have the same fucking privilege we do to have a moment to breathe through a sport. Donate blood, donate to your local food banks, donate to a bond fund, help your neighbors, help those you don’t even know. Do whatever you can to help those in need, because the so-called leadership of this country refuses to.

– Matt Dumba’s speech was remarkable. I’m totally surprised that the NHL even let him do what he did, which is both a relief and troubling. You could feel the power in each quiver of Dumba’s voice. It was a wonderful, meaningful, powerful speech, something we should never forget as these play-ins and playoffs move forward. If there’s anything not to like about what Dumba went through today, it’s that he had to do it at all and that he found himself kneeling on his own. While it was touching to watch Subban and Nurse stand at his side, you wish everyone else would have joined him.

Nonetheless, Matt Dumba made a powerful statement that far overshadows anything else that happened on the ice. It was a pleasant surprise from a league that often doesn’t live up to its ideals. And if you have any problem with what Dumba did at all, eat fucking shit you dumb motherfucker.

– I guess even a drooling dog’s sore dick can shoot one off every once in a while. The Blackhawks were three of six on the PP, which was far better than even the most optimistic could have predicted. Yes, it’s a huge problem that the Oilers scored three of their four goals on their PP, but we can safely rest assured that we successfully pulled a Fels Motherfuck on the special teams thus far. While this one feels good, with the likelihood of Koskinen starting going forward, the Hawks oughtn’t rest on their laurels. The Oilers have proven they can do it regularly. The Hawks have not.

– Dominik Motherfucking Kubalik, my frents. His five points today set a playoff-debut record for points from a rookie (and Sportsnet called it a playoff record, so it’s official: The Hawks are a playoff team). And what a performance he had throughout. On the Hawks’s first PP, he backhanded a pass from Kane to a wide-open Toews, who hardly needed to exert any effort to snap the shot home. His assist on Saad’s tip-in off a Maatta point shot (FUCKING WHAT???) was art, as was his pass from behind the net through the Royal Road to Toews on the Hawks’s second PP.

But the best part of Kubalik’s game came on his one timer from Keith in the second period. It’s a pleasant surprise to see how good Kubalik has become at just about every aspect of the game, but his rocket shot is still Sue at the Field.

Whatever it takes this off-season, you have to re-sign Kubalik. Whatever it takes. Someone start the GoFundMe that forces Seabrook to trade contracts with Kubalik now. Thanks.

– Jonathan Toews was the guy doing all the fucking early in this game. Two goals (both on the PP), an assist, and simply pulling it out and slamming it on the table at the dot against McDavid. The big concern here was how the Toews line would keep up with either Draisaitl or McDavid, and they simply crushed them.

– Early in the game, it looked like we might get the version of Saad that we don’t like to admit exists: the one who gets lackadaisical and isn’t giving MORE. It was evident on McDavid’s goal, when McDavid curled just past the blue line only to power himself toward the near-side dot to receive a pass from Draisaitl across ice. There’s no good excuse to leave the best player in hockey that wide open, even on the PK, but Saad did.

But aside from that, Saad was excellent. He had an 81+ CF% at 5v5 to go with his two points (1 G, 1 A), which is hard to argue with. The Hawks’s top line was nails when it needed to be.

– Kirby Dach may have only had one assist, but he’s a future star. His aggressiveness on the end boards before Toews’s first PP goal led to a puck squirting onto Kane’s stick. Despite taking a hard check, Dach still managed to keep the puck moving. He’s special, and I take back saying that picking him over Bowen Byram was a bad call.

– We all thought this series would go through Crawford. It probably still will. But today wasn’t especially confidence inducing. On Draisaitl’s goal (the Oilers’s second in the game), Crow made an outstanding save at first, but struggled to recover in the crease after hitting the ice. He had enough time to find his feet, but he just didn’t. He looked lost at times, which could be a concern as the Oilers seemed to find their groove late. Nothing to light yourself on fire about just yet, especially with three of the Oilers’s four goals coming on the PP, but something to watch. Crow will need to find it a little more smoothly if the Hawks hope to advance. They can’t win without him being the rock.

– I said that the Hawks would lose any game in which they gave up more than three penalties. I might have Motherfucked them today. It’ll be crucial for Colliton to get his pretty head out of his skinny ass and avoid any more TOO MUCH MAN penalties. I’m willing to give a pass on today’s, but any more of that horseshit will bury this team.

– It’s only one game, but I have seen enough of Alex Nylander on the second line. He’s a lazy airhead who doesn’t finish. It doesn’t matter how fast he CAN be or how hard his shot CAN be when neither Kane nor Strome trust him enough to get him the puck. While we’d rather not see Dach fester with him and Caggiula, there were several spots where the Kane line had chances that Nylander’s stargazing stopped in its tracks. Flip Top Cat and Nylander. At least Top Cat has shown he’s willing to play bigger than he is.

– Watching Dylan Strome bank a goal in off Mike Smith’s dumb ass after his “No, we’re really going to an Escape Room, it’ll be fun!” puck-handling escapade ought to have cost $49.95. It rules that he not only got the start but also shat his pants. Fuck him.

It’s still a huge uphill battle for this team. With Koskinen likely slated to start the remainder of the games, goals won’t come as easy as they did today. Stopping the Nylander experiment and getting Crawford to be less wonky will be the focus on Monday. But they got Game 1, and that can make all the difference.

Let’s go Hawks.

Booze du Jour: Maker’s Mark, Evan Williams, and Miller High Life

Unironic Line of the Night: Everything Matt Dumba said.

Ironic Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks just winning the races to the pucks.”  –Doc

Hockey

Overthinking, Overanalyzing Separates the Body From the Mind—Hawks vs. Oilers Preview—Forwards

By John Pullega 1766

The 2020 play-ins and playoffs will more closely resemble preseason hockey than any sort of competitive matchup between in-rhythm teams at the peak of their production. In these situations, raw talent typically beats systems. Given the alleged system that Jeremy Colliton runs—which often includes such scenes as “Connor Murphy chasing at his own blue line” and “developing 2-on-0s at the top of the circles despite the Hawks icing five guys in their own zone”—you might think this bodes well for the Blackhawks. And it actually might in terms of forwards.

Oilers forwards and potential combos

Nugent-Hopkins–McDavid–Kassian

Ennis–Draisaitl–Yamamoto

Athanasiou–Sheahan–Archibald

Neal–Khaira–Chiasson

In their heyday, the Hawks focused on speed to overpower opponents. Though that ship has sailed for this iteration of the Hawks, it’s clearly found safe harbor in Edmonton.

Connor McDavid is not only the best player on the planet but also the fastest. Draisaitl—who won the Art Ross and is in the running for the Lindsey and the Hart—also fast. Yamamoto? Fast. Joakim Nygard (if he plays coming off a broken hand)? Fast. Athanasiou? Really fucking fast. With at least one burner on each line in the top 9 for Edmonton, the Oilers will have a North–South advantage.

On top of speed, the Oilers have two guys who can do it all by themselves in McDavid and Draisiatl. Yamamoto’s emergence as “the guy Stan Bowman wished Alex Nylander were” gives the Oilers matchup options for when Coach Nathan For You shows us yet again that he has no idea how matchups work. RNH was having a strong year for himself and was on pace to put up his best point-per-game total of his career. Even Zack Kassian potted 15 goals and James Neal came close to 20. There’s a bit more depth to this forward corps than meets the eye.

But it’ll boil down to speed and the fact that the Oilers have two 90+ point scorers on the ice for at least two-thirds of the game. That’s a tough hump to get over.

Blackhawks forwards and potential combos

Top Cat–Toews–Saad

Nylander (Christ)–Strome–Kane

Kubalik–Dach–Caggiula

Carpenter–Kampf–Highmore

This is as close to the classic Hawks 3–1 forward makeup as we’ve seen in the Colliton era, even if the second and third lines are half baked. If there’s a bright spot to how this play-in will work, it’s that Jeremy Colliton can get away with his only useful move: icing Patrick Kane for 30–35 minutes a game. On three months of rest and with nothing to lose, Kane by himself could at least make this series interesting, even if Crawford can’t go.

The big story out of camp has been how good the Kane line has looked with Nylander and Strome. It’s always fun to hear about how good Alex Nylander looks in practice and watch him score slick goals when the Hawks are up by three or four. When shit matters, he’s a ghost, but you can bet your bottom goddamn dollar Colliton is going to keep trotting him out there. Kane and Strome have a ton of proven chemistry, and though it’d probably be wiser to slot Kubalik over Nylander, there’s no use in asking a giraffe to change its spots at this point.

The most interesting line will be the Dach line. Though Kubalik is decidedly not a third liner, and neither is Dach, putting these two together makes sense. Dach’s hands and vision coupled with Kubalik’s speed, shot, and willingness to GET IN DA DIRTY CORNERS DARE MY FRENT could expose the Oilers’s soft underbelly. Patrick Kane will be the one keeping them in contention, but this is the line that will win it for the Hawks, if they’re going to win.

Everyone who’s seen Dach in Magic Training Camp II says he looks faster and stronger than ever before. Whether that’s per se or simply because he’s skating with a collection of rusted jalopies is the question, but given how he really started coming into his own late last year, we buy it. Pairing him with Caggiula makes sense in theory, as Caggiula would be the primary go-get-the-puck guy. But with his concussion history and the massiveness of Edmonton’s fourth line, he’s vulnerable to another serious head injury out there.

You figure the Kampf line will try to shut down McDavid while the Toews line works Draisaitl et al. Kampf had success against McDavid the two times he saw him during the regular season, and he’ll need to repeat that if the Hawks are to have any hope of not giving up six goals a game. The real question will be whether Toews and Saad can handle Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

Forward advantage: Hawks by an asshair

The Oilers have better top-end talent but slightly less depth than the Hawks. For as fast as Athanasiou is, that’s all he really is. So, if Colliton can find a way to match the Dach line against him, they’ll get some opportunities. The Hawks will need Dach and Kubalik to continue outperforming expectations to hang with this squad, but it’s doable. If the Toews and Kampf lines can hold serve against McDavid and Draisaitl—especially if DeBrincat can shake his rotten shooting luck—the Hawks can at least make a run.

Lotta ifs, though.

Hockey

Game #68 – GOD DAMN It Are You F*CKIN With Me? – Hawks 1, Wings 2

By John Pullega 2371

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Absolutely fucking terrible. Until the last 10 minutes of this game, the Hawks were out-possessed and outclassed by the worst NHL team of the 21st century in the middle of a run that they’re calling a playoff push. A completely botched circumcision of an effort.

– The big story of the night is Adam Boqvist’s scratch. He was having trouble with his right wrist, which forced Dennis fucking Gilbert into the lineup to expected results. It’s the right call to play it safe with him, although based on the pre-game skate it looked like Boqvist had to take himself out rather than his absolute embarrassment of a coach doing it for him.

If you’re an optimist, you look at Boqvist’s absence and the fact that the Hawks had no drive whatsoever without him as portending to a good future for the kid. If you’re a pessimist, you look at Boqvist’s absence and the fact that the Hawks had no drive whatsoever without a 19-year-old defenseman who’s actively being bridled by his complete fraud of a coach as comprehensive proof that this fucking coach and this fucking front office have absolutely no fucking idea what the fuck they’re doing. Take a wild fucking guess where we land.

– You can talk about how the Hawks beat the Lightning and Oilers recently and use that as proof that this is a team THAT DOESN’T QUIT and HAS A LOT OF MOXIE, which is exactly what Coach Nerdlinger wants you to think. You can also eat the shit end of my ass with that horseshit. Beating playoff-entrenched teams at the end of February, when they have no reason to give a full effort, is smoke and mirrors. Beating the Panthers and Ducks should be a fucking given. But losing to literally the worst NHL team of the 21st century in an absolute must-have game is inexcusable for a team with so-called playoff aspirations.

– Slater Koekkoek, Nick Seeler, and Dennis Gilbert all played real, meaningful minutes tonight. If we weren’t 100% convinced that Colliton and Bowman are pants-shitting morons in terms of blue line signings and favoritism already, tonight would hammer that nail into each and every one of our skulls. Fuck your injuries and excuses. This is unacceptable at a professional level.

On Detroit’s first goal—and please remember that going into this game the Wings had a -121 goal differential as a team—we got to see Slater Koekkoek show us why Jeremy Colliton should not be coaching a fucking professional hockey team. He did that thing that Colliton tells them to do and went onto the far boards to cover Trevor Daley. Yes, THAT Trevor Daley. You know, the one who if you give him enough room and time will fuck up on his own because he fucking sucks? Koekkoek’s by-design coverage led to a wide-open Tyler Bertuzzi in the slot, with Olli Maatta screening Crawford just cuz. Outstanding. Playoff caliber.

On the second goal, Dennis Gilbert did Dennis Gilbert things, such as picking his ass in the crease and wondering which mix of rocks he’d have for dinner on his bus ride back to Rockford, God willing. By the time he had all the synapses firing to lay out on the ice, Fabbry Robbi or Robby Fabbri had picked his spot and potted his shot. But boy was Eddie quick to blame Crawford, because of fucking course he was.

And though Nick Seeler wasn’t directly responsible for any goals, when your presence makes the question “Is Dennis Gilbert not the worst defenseman on the ice?” one worth asking, well.

– Everyone on the broadcast made sure that you knew that the Hawks got in late last night and that the scheduling was rough and that the Hawks really had something to overcome. Fuck you. Jonathan Bernier had a .906 SV% going into this game. Detroit has allowed the most goals of all teams, with the next closest, Ottawa, allowing 26 fewer goals on the year. And again, -121 goal differential going into tonight. Playoff teams do not lose games to teams like this, especially not when it matters as much as it did tonight.

– Connor Murphy did not have a good game. Two penalties, one of which turned into a PK goal against. But babysitting Nick Seeler might do that to you.

– And as much as we love Murphy, we absolutely do not need to see him on the ice in a 6-on-5 situation at the end of a game with the goalie pulled. As if we needed even more evidence that Jeremy Colliton should be fucking up someone’s taxes on purpose and getting rewarded by his boss for “accessing a new revenue stream” instead of doing whatever it is he calls what he’s doing behind the bench, not having Dominik Kubalik, who you may know as the Blackhawks’s top goal scorer along with Kane going into this game, on the ice in a situation where you need a motherfucking goal might be the dumbest fucking thing anyone has done since Stan Bowman hired Jeremy Colliton to coach this team.

The 2019–20 Detroit Red Wings will go down as the worst team of the 21st century thus far. And the Hawks—in the midst of a playoff run they’re just prematurely ejaculating over to tell you about—lost to them in a must-win game. It always sucked losing to them when they were the better team. But this?

Fucking pathetic.

Until Sunday.

Beer du Jour: Evan Williams and Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “Force Detroit to come out of their comfort zone.” –Eddie O describing how the Hawks could overcome the worst statistical team in almost every single category in hockey.

Hockey

What Is Dominik Kubalik?

By Sam Fels 2417 0

This isn’t some existential question, though I’ve reached the point in my life where I’m not sure everything isn’t one. Anyway, for the Hawks going forward, it’s important to identify what Dominik Kubalik is going forward, not only for what his next contract will be but for what the Hawks think they need to bolster the roster.

Because, thanks to the supernova genius of the past offseason, the Hawks don’t have a lot of wiggle room. We’ve been over and over what the Hawks can, and really have to, do to open up cap space. Even with today’s announcement from scratch-muppet Bill Daly that next year’s cap will be between $84-$88M (which means $84M), the Hawks don’t have much to work with. If they’re really planning on having Andrew Shaw and Brent Seabrook return to this team next year, at best they could have $15M to play with and that’s with a buyout of Olli Maatta. They can’t buy out Zack Smith until he’s medically cleared, and who knows when that would be. And this the Hawks, so they might not even be considering buying out Maatta, which means only $12M in space. And that would be pretty much gobbled up by Kubalik, Strome, and the two goalies they’ll need to bring in (even if one of those is a kid from the system).

So yeah, nailing the Kubalik contract is just about paramount.

The Hawks catch something of a break with Kubalik’s birthday being in August, as he won’t hit unrestricted free agency for three years instead of two. You can bet whatever contract comes next will be for three years for that exact reason, and it would behooved the Hawks to keep it there. Coming off a possible 35-goal season, buying out unrestricted free agent years could get expensive, unless Kubalik and his agent are just the nicest people in the world.

So let’s try and figure out what Kubalik is on the ice before we try and diagnose what he is going to get paid off of it. First off, he’s almost certainly not a 35-goal scorer consistently. He was a point-per-game in Switzerland, and did score one in every two there, but that didn’t project to what the Hawks have gotten so far.

As we’ve noted, Kubalik is shooting 19.1%, which just isn’t sustainable. The highest career-mark this century is Alex Tanguay’s 18.3. Currently, Draisaitl has the highest current career mark at 16.9%. Maybe Kubalik can keep it around there, but we don’t know that yet.

At the moment, Kubalik is leading the league in goals/60 at even-strength. Right behind him is Alex Ovechkin. Auston Matthews is fourth. David Pastrnak is fifth. This isn’t to say Kubalik is these guys, just the rarified air he’s keeping. Kubalik is currently doubling his expected goals per 60, which none of the other top-five are. All except Pastrnak have a higher expected goals per 60, and Pasta has the same rate.

Kubalik leads the league in difference between his actual goal-rate and his expected one, tied with Andre Burakovsky. You might say that talented shooters/finishers outshoot their expected rates all the time, and that’s what makes them special players, and you wouldn’t be wrong. Just not at this level of doing so. Currently Alex Ovechkin has a difference in those marks of 0.72, which is still someway lower than Kubalik’s 0.88, and by far the highest difference of his career. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more gifted finisher than Ovie.

If you look at simply Kubalik’s expected number of 0.86/60, that ranks him 29th, again even with Pastrnak and Aho and William Nylander, all encouraging names to be around to be sure. And Kubalik produced that while spending a good portion of the first half of the season on the bottom six and such. Toews may be his most common teammate, but the next forward on that list is David Kampf. Tells you a lot.

Kubalik’s attempts per game rank him 39th among forwards, which isn’t bad but doesn’t really make him a volume shooter. So he’s more of his find-his-spots guy, which is fine.

The worrying thing for the Hawks is that everyone around Kubalik’s ixG/60 makes some coin, like Aho or Stastny or Atkinson or Marchessault or Stone. What the Hawks will be harping on pretty hard you’d have to think is track record.

What’s kind of weird is that Kubalik has an outside shot at putting together the second-most goals for a rookie in the past 10 years. Matthews’s 40 is not going to happen, but Laine’s 36 could happen with just another heater for two or three weeks. He’s going to top Panarin’s 30 from 2016, which helped get him a $7M contract that the Hawks were too terrified to actually pay him and traded him before it kicked in. You can bet Kubalik’s agent is going to have this in mind.

Panarin shot 16% that year, a mark he didn’t match until this campaign in New York. Laine shot over 17% his first two years but hasn’t come close to that since. This is probably what the Hawks have in mind. Laine signed a two-year bridge deal coming out of his entry-level for $6.7M, and you can argue whether or not he’s been worth it or not.

Jonathan Marchessault on that list makes for an interesting comp, because both he and Kubalik feel like solid 25-30 goal-scorers. Marchessault signed his deal at 28, which marks him out from Laine, Nylander, Pastrnak who signed their current deals at younger ages than Kubalik will be this summer. The projection for them would be that they would get better, whereas the Knights were signing what Marchessault was and will be. He’s at $5M per year, which you’d have to say is a bargain, especially as he was UFA aged. The Hawks are probably pegging (not like that) this season as the absolute height of what Kubalik can be.

All of that suggests the Hawks are going to be up against it to get Kubalik in for under $5M a year, even with his restricted status. It’s also hard to find a comp for a player who comes from Europe and in his first year kicks ass and then is ready for a new deal. Panarin is about as close as you’d get and he had a second year before getting his deal. Anything under $5M per year should be considered a steal.

The Hawks do have all the leverage here, as it’s unlikely that someone is going to swoop in with an offer sheet north of $7M for a player with just one year in the NHL, and that’s the amount that would definitely make the Hawks pass. But then again, the Hawks have never used that leverage with anyone not named Marcus Kruger, and he didn’t seem to care.

And I’m not sure anything between $4.5M-$5.5M would ever be a bad deal for the Hawks. Given what his underlying numbers say, it’s easy to peg Kubalik as hovering around 25 goals, give or take, for the next few years. That’s about what they cost.

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 3/2: Kuba’s Korner

By Sam Fels 1558 0

The Dizzying Highs

Dominik Kubalik – First career hat trick in Tampa, which he had taken a run at before but didn’t quite complete, and five points in three games. Kubalik has had a rookie season beyond anyone’s dreams, and has been a genuinely fun thing to watch night in and night out. The power play has been revitalized with him on the right side and Kane switching to the left, though one might worry that teams will eventually cut off the one pass that has led to all this. But that’s for another time. Kubalik’s policy on the power play of just firing all the time is working for now.

Of course, the discussion will turn soon to whether if this is what Kubalik actually is going forward. It most certainly isn’t, because he’s not going to shoot damn near 20% for his whole career. No one does. Draisaitl and Oshie are right above and below him now, and their career marks are much lower. This is a spike, and we know that from how much he’s outperforming his expected marks. Still, his 0.86 individual xG/60 ranks in the top-30 in the league, which means that Kubalik could be viewed as a 20-25 goal from here on out with the occasional spike that will land him at 30 and above (he’s only 24 so you’d like to think he’ll have some years to play with). He also might always outperform his metrics given that he’s a good finisher.

Given Kubalik’s nose for space and finishing ability, you sort of wonder what he could do with a gifted passer. It’s not that Jonathan Toews is a bad passer or playmaker, but it’s not his specialty. Perhaps in the future, when the Hawks add another forward or two, Kubalik could find space for Kane or Dach on a full-time basis (even Strome is probably better passer than Toews) and keep his goal-totals inflated.

Again, discussion for another time. Sometimes you just have to enjoy what’s right in front of you.

The Terrifying Lows

Jeremy Colliton – It seems unfair to kick the guy after the Hawks got wins over two good teams competing for things right after they had one of the bigger stomach-punch losses in St. Louis, given all that went on before that one as well. The Hawks showed fight and pride, which isn’t always easy with a team going nowhere for a third year in a row.

But it’s hard to track Colliton’s comments that he’s proud of the way the Hawks have played hard all season and never given in, and then think about his comments after the losses to the Rangers and such where he claims that they didn’t care enough to start well or play the right way. What message do you want to send there, chief?

I would imagine that when this team plays hard it’s doing so for Toews and Co., and seeing as how Toews and Keith have made it pretty damn clear what they think of the steward of this ship, he’s probably trying to scramble to keep his job. Something tells me he’s going to keep it through the summer, but the leash in the fall is going to be awfully short.

This was also the week that down a goal to the Blues, Colliton sent his top power play plus Saad out for the final 2:51 of the game without a timeout. There isn’t any player on Earth that can keep his starch for 2:50, no matter how many stoppages. Needless to say, the Hawks didn’t really come close to finding a tying goal.

When the Hawks drew that power play with nearly three to go, the move was to send out the second unit, even for just 30 seconds if that’s what it was, and then send out the first unit with the goalie pulled for the rest of the game. Sure, you’re never guaranteed a stoppage when you need one to change, but you’re also not going anywhere with players out there for three minutes.

When anyone can point to what Colliton does well or who is a better player today than when he took over, I’ll think about removing the label “Worst Coach In The League” from around his neck. I’ll be waiting.

The Creamy Middles

Corey Crawford – Crow had a rough one in St. Louis, as everyone did. And maybe Crow’s pattern at this point in his career is just going to have a semi-regular clunker that keeps him more in the .915 range now instead of above .920 (though give him an improved defense and we’ll see). With nothing on the table, there would be no questions if that struggle had continued against two high-powered offenses in Florida (though the Bolts were hampered by injury). Instead, Crow turned away 74 of the 78 shots he saw in two games from teams loaded with finishers, and got the Hawks four points.

Never leave us.

Hockey

Game #64 – Hawks 5, Lightning 2: Give Me A Run For My Money, Sipping Kubbly, Feeling Lovely

By Adam Hess 1671 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

I have to admit that my expectations for this one were not high. Given the Hawks recent string of play, the fact that the Lightning are a far superior squad, and that they badly needed to get a win at home, I felt that this one could get ugly. In the second period, I thought I was being proven right, and then the final frame happened. I am happily surprised to be wrong. Let’s dig in:

IF KUBALIK LOSES THE CALDER WE RIOT

– Let’s start with our header, as Dominik Kubalik really spearheaded the offensive attack for the Hawks, outscoring the Bolts all on his own in the third period (okay, one was an empty netter but it counts all the same). Given the scouting reports about him and the Hawks’ success in finding some hidden gems in Europe over the years, there was little doubt that Kubalik was going to be a good NHL player, but I don’t think even the most optimistic Hawks fan expected this kind of season from him. He’s been riding a hot steak for damn near two months now with 18 goals in his last 22 games, and with his first career hat trick tonight he now sits just one goal shy of 30 for the year. With 18 games still to go and the hot hand he’s riding, he has a real nice chance at 35 goals and an outside chance at 40. Especially given how snake bitten Top Cat has been this year, that is very welcome.

– The real MVP of this one was probably Corey Crawford, though. Really, that shouldn’t surprise you anymore, but it’s true nonetheless. Crawford was great in the first period, as the game saw a lot of back and forth action and Crow went blow for blow on impressive saves with Curtis McElhinney. The second period was all Tampa, though, and Crow really stood on his head to keep the Hawks in it. Eventually the Hawks allowed a goal, but it took a nice play on a cycle by Brayden Point and a hell of a shot to beat Crow and give the Lightning the lead. On the second Bolts goal there was literally nothing Crawford could do to stop it, and we will get to that shortly. Overall, another great performance from Crow in a career and season full of them.

– As much as I admittedly dislike Jeremy Colliton and have fun making fun of the smoothness of his brain, I have to give credit where it is due – he made some nice adjustments on the power play tonight when it came to the strategy of the first unit. Early in the game it was evident that Tampa was going to pressure the absolute shit out of Patrick Kane every time he touched the puck on the PP, which Olzcyk called out on the broadcast. As the game went on, you could see the Hawks adjusting to try and use that aggressiveness to their advantage, and eventually they were able to do so – on Kubalik’s second goal, go back and watch the way Tampa defended it. The Hawks put Keith right in the middle of the ice on the umbrella with Kane on his left and Kubalik to the right. Tampa was so unwilling to leave Kane along, even on his weak side, that they left the forward on that side down low so he could pressure Kane if the puck went to him, forcing the other forward to skate way out of position to pressure Keith at the point. Duncs just went right back to Kubalik, who had a wide open shooting lane with that forward out of position, and with his shot that is a gift he made the most of.

– This next part is another comment on a PP adjustment by Colliton, but you can choose how you want to read it, and you’ll get what I mean in a moment. I don’t know the exact numbers here and am too lazy to go dig it up right now, but the Hawks second PP unit got a bit more ice time tonight, and that was the unit that actually ended up scoring the Hawks first goal to get them on the board tonight. Now, you can take that as an adjustment by Colliton to get another unit of good scorers like Boqvist, Saad, and Strome on the ice and being willing to give them more opportunity after seeing that it is working. Or you can wonder why it took him so damn long to actually start doing that more consistently, and the answer to that would be that his brain is smoother than a fresh paint job. I mean, even with the small amount of credit I’ll give him for utilizing PP2 more often, he also is putting Olli Maatta out there with that unit….

– Speaking of which, that guy fucking sucks. Remember that second Lightning goal I talked about that wasn’t Crawford’s fault? Yeah, that’s cuz it was Maatta’s. The only reason the Bolts even scored that goal is because Maatta received a pass from Crawford terribly and lost the puck, made no legitimate effort to find the puck and instead tried to body Nikita Kucherov away while standing flat footed which resulted in Kucherov winning the puck (shocker), and then Maatta just completely failed to follow him and lost track of him altogether, leaving him all alone deep in the zone for Point to find with a nice pass that Kucherov had all day to put into a wide open net, cuz Crawford never even had a chance to react to all of this because it happened so quickly. Get that guy the fuck out of here, and send Slater Koekkoek along with him.

– But I won’t do anymore negative. This was a good win, good enough to restore a small amount of faith in this group, even if I still don’t think they have any chance of making the playoffs and even if I think that losing more games than they win is the more favorable result for this team moving forward. You’re probably sick of me lobbying for tanking by now, huh?

– Hawks go next on Saturday, as they’ll head down to Miami to take on Coach Q and the Panthers. Until then.

Hockey

Where Do We Go Now?

By John Pullega 2272 0

You know we aren’t here to bullshit you, dear reader. This Hawks team is done this year. They’ve looked disjointed, uninspired, and boring when they needed to do the exact opposite most. But they aren’t as far off from being a contender as it seems. So, where do they even go from here, and what do we, as fans, look forward to with this team?

Firing Jeremy Colliton

The Blackhawks must fire Jeremy Colliton as soon as possible, and we should relish when it finally happens. Jeremy Colliton has no business coaching this NHL team, now or in the future. The Hawks were a top-10 team in terms of goals just last year, and this galaxy-brained wiener has devolved it into an on-ice fatberg.

Following the Arizona game that the Hawks won in the shootout after the break, they were two points out of the last playoff spot. They had a pretty soft schedule ahead of them. If they could keep the coals hot until they hit their last big hell trip at the end of February, the ineptitude of the Western Conference might have pushed them into a playoff spot they really didn’t deserve.

Instead, we got a slate of losses to teams like Edmonton without McDavid and the Rangers, who are in complete, unabashed rebuild mode. We got an entire power play unit filled with left-handed shots and Patrick Kane on his off side just cuz. And at the tip of it all is Carbuncle Colliton, whose only moves are to triple shift Patrick Kane and then blame the effort when his team loses important games. He’s the model coach for a front office born on third. When in doubt, blame everyone but yourself.

The guys on the ice don’t buy his system because it blows and is a gigantic embarrassment to all within it. All of Colliton’s smarminess about how the lines don’t matter and they need more effort hasn’t and won’t change that. A coach who gets all of his players off of their games, as Colliton has clearly done, isn’t a coach at all.

Jeremy Colliton sucks at this. Yes, thank you for scratching Brent Seabrook, but you can go now. Firing him won’t fix everything, but it’s the first and most necessary step toward making this team fun again.

(And yes, you can lump Stan Bowman in here too. I won’t expound too much on my feelings about him here simply because it’s rare for GMs to get fired mid-season, and you can always revisit this.)

Trading everything that isn’t tied down

Trade Gus, like they should have last year. Trade Lehner for whatever you can get, because his diaper is full and his efforts empty. Fuck, trade Brandon Saad if you can get a Bowen Byram, as much as it would hurt the heart. As much as we want this team to win now, this is not a win-now team. If you were an overly optimistic idiot like me, you could have squinted at it right after the break and thought “well, maybe.”

But no longer. The blue line is one of the worst in the league. Until they fix that and get that sometimes-bespectacled asshole out from behind the bench, nothing else will matter. The only way they can even start doing that is by selling whatever they can before the deadline ends.

Because this team isn’t that far off. They need one faster, contributing forward to round out the top 9. Assuming Mitchell signs and isn’t a sewer, they need one solid defenseman to go with Murphy, Boqvist, Keith, de Haan, and Mitchell to be representative at least. It’ll take some doing, but it is doable (just maybe not with Bowman at the helm).

Young blood

In Adam Boqvist and Kirby Dach, the Hawks have two young, skilled players. At worst, you can see them being no less than good players. At best, they’re franchise cornerstones of the next wave of success.

Boqvist has the kind of speed that the Hawks can use to break through the neutral zone more fluidly than the unbearably predictable drop pass. He’s got a sharp wrister and excellent passing skills that will be a cornerstone of the power play. But as we’ve seen all year since he’s come up, he’s hesitant and overly deferential. How he’s played this year is entirely at odds with what he’s done before he got here. If nothing else, you have to fire Colliton to at least give Boqvist a chance.

Dach is a smart positional center with good on-ice vision, and not just for a 19-year-old. His passing choices and finish are only going to get better with more experience. Dach’s development should be at the top of the list for the Hawks, and as of now, it looks like even they realize that.

And of course, there’s Dominik Kubalik, who might end up with 35 goals in his rookie year. You and I both knew he was going to be good going in. It took Coach Carbuncle way too long to get that, because he sucks at this.

Crow’s last hurrah

This might be Crawford’s last year as Blackhawk. He doesn’t deserve to go out like this. He’s still a high-quality goaltender who’s managed to keep the Hawks in games they had no business sniffing. Chronically underappreciated, Crow will go down as a top 2 goaltender for the Hawks, topped perhaps only by Glenn Hall.

If the Hawks were smart, they’d try to bring him back for another year or two. But they aren’t. And even if they were, Crow would be completely in the right to tell them to eat shit and ply his craft elsewhere.

Crow will always be The Goalie here. Fuck Robin Lehner, you can have him and his dumbass neck tattoos and finger pointing. No one has done it better than Crawford as quietly and efficiently despite everything he’s gone through. It’s unlikely anyone will again for a long, long time. Cherish it.

Some of the young pieces—Boqvist, Dach, Kubalik—are in place. Alex DeBrincat is still here, even if he’s having a rough go this year. If they can get Strome for $5 million per over three years and put him back at fucking center, the Hawks’s center depth is really good. Kane is a freak who continues to deliver, though you can’t help but wonder whether he’s feeling like Mona Lisa Vito, playing for a team that’s pissing itself throughout his prime. Toews continues to prove everyone who thought his best days were behind him wrong. Murphy’s Murphy, Keith can still do it, and a healthy de Haan is a good depth D-man.

The framework is there, but not for this year. It’s time to sell, fire Colliton, and do everything they can to make this godawful blue line at least NHL-representative. Anything else would be a dereliction of duty.

Hockey

Game #60: Rangers 6, Hawks 3 – In the Heat of the Sun, I’ve Been Dying of Cold

By Rose Rankin 2142 0

For a minute it seemed like they may have had something going, but then the third period happened. We have to file this one under “going off the rails,” and it may have just taken the last shreds of the Hawks’ playoff hopes with it. It’s been a long night so let’s just get through it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The first period was downright dull, with Hawks coming out of it down a goal, slightly up in possession (56 CF%) and even in shots with the Rangers (12-12). Filip Chytil‘s goal was a softie, which in retrospect was a harbinger of what was to come from Robin Lehner. But it wasn’t a disaster, by any means, just some mid-February boredom.

–Then, the Hawks did the opposite of what they usually do, which is suck donkey balls in the second period, and instead they were, shall we say, dominant in the second. Well, maybe not dominant per se, but at least in control. Jonathan Toews made a goal-line save early in the period and they promptly flipped the ice and Dominik Kubalik scored his 24th off a great pass from Duncan Keith, who got his 500th assist on the play. They led in shots (16-10) and again in possession (57 CF%), and they continued their actually functional penalty killing after Lehner punched Brendan Lemieux in the back of the head (which was kinda funny but not really necessary). Things were looking up–despite the fact that demand was so low that Sam had to sell his tickets for a measly $28, it was seeming like maybe the fire sale, in terms of tickets and personnel at the trade deadline, was a little premature.

–And then…it all fell apart. The Rangers scored five goals in the third period on 19 shots. Even just writing that out is insane. Suffice it to say, Lehner did not look good at all in that period. And no, I don’t mean that snarkily–he really didn’t. He hasn’t looked very lights-out since the All-Star break but this was something else. I won’t subject you to a breakdown of each goal he gave up (I’m nicer than that), but at least three of those should never have gotten through. And what’s worse, with the impending trade deadline his value just plummeted. Now it wasn’t totally his fault, as it never is with this team. Adam Boqvist had another rough night, but at this point I’m so infuriated with Coach Pete that I don’t even care if he did play badly. For example, he and Keith both got completely burned by Kreider on his goal, but Lehner definitely should have stopped it and I’m convinced that Boqvist’s mind is twisted with shitty coaching and an ass-backwards system that he’s trying to follow for the sake of not getting benched, but it goes against everything he knows and instinctually understands about the game, and the result is this general crappiness on top of being, ya know, a fucking teenager.

–One thing that did make this more entertaining than usual was the guys being on Hot Mic for the…well not calling the game, but narrating the game I guess. In addition to Sam’s bargain-basement tickets ordeal, they covered the inevitable video tribute to the sellout streak once they can no longer keep up the charade, along with deep thoughts from Matt and Fifth Feather, and the comments from you dear readers were priceless as always. We appreciate everyone who came along on this first simulcasting adventure and hope to bring you more soon.

OK, so there’s no denying the Hawks are really in some shit now, but maybe this and/or Friday will be enough to convince the front office to be selling everything that isn’t bolted down. Yes that’s a huge step that I don’t think they’re ready to admit, but it’s getting awfully hard to deny what we’re seeing. Onward and upward?