Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy

By Rose Rankin 1732 0

What to make of our Large Irish Son? In some ways he was the Hawks’ best defenseman this year and basically was the only one trusted with the dungeon shifts (yes he had Dahlstrom with him, but Dahlstrom was only there because Murphy was with him). On the other hand, if you’re the best out of a piss-poor group that features the likes of Slater Koekkoek and Brandon fucking Manning for large portions of the season, what does that really say about you? We’ve tried before to parse out who Connor Murphy really is, and we’re nothing if not stubbornly repetitive around here! What’s that saying about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting a different result? Let’s just get to it:

52 GP – 5 G – 8 A – 13 P

48.6 CF% – 29.8 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt

Connor Murphy was not terrible. I realize that doesn’t seem like the most ringing endorsement, but again we’re evaluating a defense among the dregs of the league. Murphy’s numbers won’t blow your skirt up (at least not mine, anyway), but he and Carl Dahlstrom acted as the closest thing to a shutdown pairing the Hawks could muster. He took 61% of his starts in the defensive zone, so while his possession numbers may seem disappointing, we have to keep in mind where he was going to work most shifts. Among all defensemen with a minimum 600 minutes, Murphy is fifth for fewest offensive zone starts (35.2% at 5v5), so that’s gotta count for something.

When it came to the eye test, Murphy generally passed. We had Gustav Forsling constantly out of position or just skating in circles somewhere, we had Nachos just falling down, whereas Murphy was typically where he needed to be and at the very least was upright (this is what we’re going with, folks). He had a habit of taking dumb penalties, but again if you consider how much he played in his own end, they’re a little less maddening.

And, his xGA ws 37.2 at 5-on-5, ranking him 70th in, again, defensemen with at least 600 minutes played. That may sound shitty, but there are literally 120 guys with a higher expected goals against (oh, and guess who are the second- and third-worst on that list? Duncan Keith and Erik Gustafsson, and they certainly weren’t taking as many defensive zone shifts).

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

OK, so like I said, not terrible. But is Connor Murphy truly good? That’s never been clear and this past season did nothing to help. His takeaways to giveaways was a career-worst 14-to-48, and that was playing about 25 fewer games than his historical average, such as it is in his young career, since he missed the first couple months of the season.

Oh, and about that—the Hawks suddenly announced right before training camp that oh, whoops, Connor Murphy will be out eight weeks with a back injury. As anyone over the age of 29 knows, back problems don’t get better with time, and they’re as unpredictable as they are debilitating. Not what you want to have happen to one of your most valuable defensemen who also happens to be a large human with a lot of muscle weight resting on that spine.

Even if he stays healthy, Murphy still needs a decent partner so we can see if he really can hold his own against top competition or if he’s just been the least bad option the Hawks have had. Carl Dahlstrom is basically the definition of “a guy”—a seventh defenseman or maybe a bottom-pairing bum slayer. Murphy needs someone else, someone more competent and preferable with better speed, and at that point we’ll all be out of caveats and excuses and we can finally figure out what they have in him. That is, if he’s not having back surgery by age 27.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Everything Else

Game #77 – Children of Tomorrow Live in the Tears That Fall Today – Hawks 5, Sharks 4

By John Pullega 1929 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

The ghost of the Blackhawks playoff run came out to haunt tonight, but sort of like Casper: kind of fun, kind of annoying. Against a cold Sharks team that looked sloppy and disinterested throughout, the Hawks managed to squeeze out whatever ounce of hope is left in this toothpaste-for-dessert season, despite their own sloppiness in the ass end of the ice. Let’s clean it up and grasp for meaning.

– The most notable thing about this game has to be Alex DeBrincat scoring his 40th goal. His 39th was a relief to watch, as DeBrincat got in close on the 5-on-3 to stuff home two shots off a Toews rebound–pass. With Kane doing some nifty stickhandling at the far dot, Toews managed to get position in front of the net for a redirect. Martin Jone5 managed to stuff it, but Toews recovered and shoveled a pass to DeBrincat, who buried his second try. For a guy who was just missing on shots or just flubbing passes over the last three or four, you could feel the pressure come off.

Cat’s second goal of the night, his 40th, was more stereotypical of our favorite 5’7” behemoth. After Kahun showed off some good puck retrieval near the corner boards and shoved a nice pass to Strome behind the net, DeBrincat broke wide open through the slot. Strome set him up from behind the goal line for an easy one-timer. If nothing else comes from this year, we can take solace in knowing that Alex DeBrincat is without a doubt something to build around.

– Brandon Saad brought possession dominance tonight. In the first, he flashed the skill and power that had us teasing him as the second coming of Marian Hossa. He pickpocketed Brent Burns early in the first to set up a dangerous backhander for himself that he airmailed. He delivered a perfect setup pass on Connor Murphy’s goal, following an impressive cross-ice pass from Anisimov. He redirected Gustafsson’s point shot enough to create a rebound that Toews stuffed home. He had a breakaway shot attempt stopped by a good backcheck from unrepentant douchebag Evander Kane. He posted a 100 CF% (as did Dylan Sikura).

In the second, while driving the slot, he slid a pass to Toews for a good wrister that Jones blocked, and which then nearly turned into a stuff-shot goal for Sikura.

In the third, he set up the Toews–Sikura 2-on-1 that had everyone’s shitter puckered in anticipation for Sikura’s first goal. Sikura probably waited a second too long to shoot it, but everything about it otherwise was a result of Saad’s strong breakout pass.

On the game, Saad led all Hawks with a 58+ CF% (29.08 CF% Rel) and two assists. And that’s about as perfect a representation of what Brandon Saad is. He’s an outstanding rhythm guitarist who shows flashes of superstardom. He’s a quieter contributor than most of us want him to be (I screamed about him scoring 90 points this year because I’m a fool for what I want him to be), but there’s little doubt that he’s an important contributor.

Over the last 12 games, he’s had a negative CF% Rel just once (03/09 against Dallas). On a team whose defense is a filled condom that slips out of your hands before you can tie it off and throw it in the fucking trash where it belongs, dominant possession numbers ought to be treated as a premium. We’ll always wish he were more of a 65–70-point guy than the 55 tops he is, but with everything else he does well, you can live with it, especially with the firepower the Hawks still tease when the lines are constructed well.

– Jeremy Colliton obviously listens to Live From the Five Hole. After we spent 40 minutes bitching and moaning about how the lines, especially the nuclear option, just had to go for that retro 50s charm, it was no more tonight, and the Hawks manic’d themselves into a lead not even their putrid defense could blow.

– Although he gave up four goals, you have to consider this a good outing for Crawford. The Radil goal is one he’d like to have back, but each of the rest was the result of bad defensive positioning. Seabrook floating between Hertl and Nyquist with Crawford protecting against Hertl, giving Hertl an open passing lane. Duncan Keith watching Joe Thornton dribble like Prince against Charlie Murphy. Slater Koekkoek existing. Despite one near headsmack on the cross bar and taking a hard wrister in the mush, Crawford still managed to stuff 19–21 at even strength.

– Playing Brent Seabrook at this point is active sabotage. He was simply terrible all night, taking three penalties and posting a pathetic 26+ CF%. The same goes for Gustav Forsling, who was nearly as bad both statistically and by the eye test. The only redeeming thing about these two is that Seabrook has three rings, and those are nice memories. Slap Mr. Leader in a suit, buy him out, and let him coach. Henri Jokiharju should be here right now if this is a pairing that’s trotted out there in the midst of a “playoff run.”

– There’s not much to expect out of Slater “Couldn’t Beat Out Dan Girardi” Koekkoek. But what he did on Meier’s game-tying goal was beyond the pale. With Murphy properly covering on the near boards, Koekkoek was responsible for Meier, who was creeping through the neutral zone. Instead, he rushed toward the near boards inexplicably. This left Meier wide open for a Couture cross-ice pass and an easy goal. It was one of the worst defensive executions I’ve seen all year. On a team that at some time employed Brandon Manning, Jan Rutta, Gustav Forsling, and Brent Seabrook. That’s something.

– Connor Murphy had a nice game. The fancy stats are piss, but he had six blocks and a goal. He took a lousy closing-the-hand penalty too, but other than that, he didn’t lose his ass like so many other Hawks D-men tonight. If for nothing else, I’d love to see the Hawks get a legit blue liner or two just to see whether Murphy is actually as good as I hope he is or whether he’s more of an oasis in this defensive desert.

– Perlini found his ass stapled to the bench after he kicked the puck to center ice while on the wall, causing a horrid and unexplainable turnover. He had his ass punched in possession throughout the game, so it probably wasn’t a bad call by Colliton. Though I’d rather see him flex nuts on Seabrook or Forsling or Koekkoek first, he’s got more depth in his forward lines to do something like that. So fine.

The Sharks had lost six straight coming into this, but it’s still fun to watch the Hawks take advantage of a good team off its game. It’s disappointing that it took Colliton until after the Hawks’s playoff chances realistically ended to construct the lines in ways that have proven to work very well. But if the Hawks came back next year with minor changes to the forward lines (i.e., no Kunitz), a revamped blue line minus Seabrook and Forsling, and a healthy Crawford, they can be a playoff team next year.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, I’d have something to stop the spins.

Booze du Jour: Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “Where were we last time?” –Steve Konroyd, mirroring everyone else’s thoughts on the Arizona game in the pregame.

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes Q&A: Catherine Silverman of Athletic AZ

By Sam Fels 1371 0

Catherine Silverman covers the Yotes for The Athletic, as well as working as a goalie expert of In Goal Magazine. You can follow her on Twitter @CatMSilverman. This is the Q&A we did with her a couple weeks ago when the Coyotes were here.

The Yotes have hung around the playoff picture, and yet they don’t have anyone who has scored over 42 points. Is this all or mostly Darcy Kuemper‘s resurgence?

So, let me preface this as saying that I think that Darcy Kuemper has been a really solid part of the team this year. He’s had his moments that put your heart in your throat, but he’s internalized the need to play well for the team’s playoff hopes and gotten the job done. 

That being said, I think that the biggest contributor to their success has been their scoring depth. They don’t have anyone over 42 points, but they have 11 players with 20 or more points and 10 players with 10 or more goals. In comparison, the Blackhawks have a 96-point getter, but also only have 10 players with 20 or more points — and they only have eight players with 10 or more goals. It’s why the Dallas Stars have a 61-point player in Tyler Seguin, but are still hanging around Arizona; they only have five players with 10 or more goals. 

While the more top-heavy teams live and die by the success of their stars, Arizona has been getting effective middle-six production from… well, everyone. Add in their injuries (if you project players like Schmaltz, Richardson, Galchenyuk, and Grabner onto an 82-game season, they’d all be sitting on much higher point totals) and their success makes a lot more sense. 

In my opinion

Look, we like Connor Murphy. We may be the only ones, but we’ll hold on. But we can’t help but notice the metrics that Niklas Hjalmarsson is turning in these days. Starting in his own zone most of the time, against the toughest competition, and turning it around. Is that to do with playing with Ekman-Larsson? Because Hammer was starting to turn here before the trade…

I think it has a bit to do with it, but Ekman-Larsson certainly isn’t propping Hjalmarsson up if that’s what you’re insinuating. Isolated on his own, Nik has been one of Arizona’s best players all year; he’s looking incredibly effective, and very much like the player that Chicago initially signed to his current deal. 

It’s possible that the rest from no playoffs last year combined with missed time for injury legitimately gave him enough rest to refuel his tank. Whatever it is, though, he’s looking fantastic.  

We were also Alex Galchenyuk fans and though Arizona got the better of that deal. He’s produced ok, been hurt a bit, but maybe not yet what we were thinking. What is he to someone who watches him far more?

He’s been exactly what the team traded for. After missing the start of the season for injury, he had a bit of a slow start — understandable when coming in with the season in full swing on a brand-new team. 

In the last few months, though, he’s been one of their best players. He’s excellent on the power-play, has 15 goals and 36 points in 57 games (which would be 43 points if he’d missed no time, putting him over that 42-point threshold), and has won 46 percent of his face-offs — his highest percentage in three years. 

Since February 1st, he’s put up seven goals and 11 points in 17 games. If he can continue to perform on the power-play like he has lately — and, frankly, continue to set up plays for Clayton Keller like he has been, even when it doesn’t get him a point on the board — he’ll continue to prove to be a fantastic add for the team. 

Three points out, game in hand on the Wild, 15 to go. Can the Yotes do it?

Three points out and two games in hand now, since the Wild forgot they were playing tonight. But I’d say at this point, it’s really anyone’s game — meaning that I won’t be putting money on Arizona, but I won’t be surprised at all if they make it either. 

Jason Demers is healthy again. Michael Grabner is healthy again. Antti Raanta is getting close. They’ve survived the first of potentially four to six weeks without Derek Stepan, and only lost one game in the process. I think if they put up the kind of performance they did down the back stretch last year, especially with Colorado losing one of their own top-heavy talents and Minnesota and Dallas struggling with consistency, they could easily slip their way in. 

 

Game #76 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #71 – Hawks 2, Canadiens 0 – It Was All Night Pouring, But Not a Drop On Me

By Rose Rankin 1964 0

Tonight was a goalie win and this is why I love Corey Crawford. There were some other bright spots but the Hawks yet again gave up a ridiculous number of shots and Crow pulled not just his usual headstand in Montreal but a season-high and even a career-high in saves. Let’s get to the bullets!

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– Crawford definitely recovered from his illness the other day, and he’s the reason the Hawks won this game. He stopped 48 shots tonight, and his saves ranged from the flashy highlight reel ones to workaday solid positioning. His rebound control was excellent. And while the Hawks defense was relatively decent through two periods and the start of the third (including a key penalty kill), by the second half of the third they crumbled and basically tried to do a performance art interpretation of their Wednesday night debacle. Even before that, Crawford repeatedly kept them in the game when they were scoreless or then clinging to a one-goal lead. Overall the number of shots he faced was absurd and a return to the bad old days like what  we saw the other night, after a few games of the Hawks giving up under 30 SOG which apparently was a lucky fluke. After the injuries and all the bullshit (and literal shits), Crawford is still god.

– The lines got shuffled at the end, but for the majority of the game the top line of Saad-Toews-Sikura was dominant. Together these three had a 65 CF%, and between them nine shots. Sikura continued to not score…and it’s becoming laughable and sad at the same time. He was excellent tonight overall, with four shots including one goalpost that missed by maybe a couple millimeters, and a give-and-go with Perlini at the end of the third where Perlini was trying SO HARD to get him the puck and passed it into Sikura’s skates instead of putting it on his stick. The kid had a 58 CF% on the night and was all over the ice. Either he’ll score 10 goals in one game, or he will never score one ever in his life (with the Hawks at least).

– Also impressive from the top line was Brandon Saad. Right at the start he had some nice takeaways and also straight-up burned Shea Weber, which is always enjoyable. He wasn’t as noticeable offensively after the first period but he was fast and smart with the puck all night. Jonathan Toews, on the other hand, must have run over the ref’s dog or banged his daughter or something because he got called for two bullshit penalties. Toews was fine for the most part but definitely not happy with the officiating. It was the second silly call that led to the penalty kill right at the start of the third, which luckily they got through, and then Perlini scored and they got some breathing room.

– On that note, Perlini scored again, so thumbs up to him hitting a hot streak at exactly the right time. And in the most festive aspect of the game on this St. Patrick’s Day weekend, our Large Irish Son scored the first goal! Connor Murphy played really well the entire night so it’s fitting that he got the go-ahead goal. Now, he and Slater Koekkoek didn’t exactly light up the possession numbers (a wretched 33 CF% for the pair and Murphy individually was no better). But in yet another case of the eye test and the numbers not matching up, Murphy’s positioning around the net was great and he had multiple clears that at least helped Crawford, which is more than can be said for some of the other jamokes. The possession leader on the defense tonight was Nachos with a whopping 45 CF%, so don’t let Murphy’s numbers fool you. He was good tonight.

– The power play has continued to go cold, which in a way is a course correction? Maybe? If I say it like that will I stop worrying so much? After being so terrible for so long and then so unstoppable for a stretch I guess it stands to reason that it would cool off a little. But I won’t lie—it would be encouraging if they could at least get one goal on the man advantage if they’re going to cosplay that they’re a playoff team. Did you know it’s been since the Anaheim game on February 27th that they got a power play goal? If you did, I’m sorry. If you didn’t, I’m even sorrier.

Two points are two points and they need every single one right now. Also lol Montreal, it’s great when we’re not the only ones who fuck it up when it matters. If the Hawks are really going to steal the last wild card they have to keep this going on Monday. Can they? At this point it’s anyone’s guess who shows up, but at least we know what Crawford is still capable of. Onward and upward…

 

Everything Else

Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Spotlight: The Return Of Mjolnir

By Sam Fels 1428 0

This won’t make for easy reading for Hawks fans. We aren’t here to tell you what you want to hear.

We’ve made the case all season that if there were a “Rod Langway” Award, that is if the best defensive defenseman were given an award along with or in place of the Norris–where the d-man who just accumulates the most points wins–, then Niklas Hjalmarsson would probably collect it. In a season where the Hawks have struggled so completely defensively, that can be painful to admit.

Let’s go over the numbers again. Hammer starts the 5th-highest percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone among blue-liners in the league. But whereas most of those d-men are merely trying to build a ditch and just let not disaster strike, Hjalmarsson and his partner Oliver Ekman-Larsson have been able to push the play the other way as well as anyone even though they have the farthest to go. Even with the dungeon shifts, Hjalmarsson has the ninth-best relative xGF% in relation to his team in the league. When it comes to just goals-against, Hammer has the best mark relative to his team in the league. Even though he starts in his own zone as much as anyone, he’s hardly giving up any chances. He’s the ultimate tease.

The temptation is to toss the responsibility onto OEL, as he is one of the better puck-movers in the league. And some of OEL’s numbers do improve away from Hammer’s while the latter’s sink. They collect a 51.3% Corsi-share together, where OEL is at 52.4% without Hammer and 50.4% vice versa. However, it’s the opposite when it comes to actual shots, further showcasing how Hjalmarsson limits chances. OEL’s scoring chance-percentage is actually worse away from Hjalmarsson, and Hjalmarsson’s high-danger chance share is a few points higher away from OEL than it is when they’re together. Hammer is helping OEL just as much as the other way around, which is certainly the big reason the Coyotes made this trade in the first place.

That shouldn’t be an indictment on Connor Murphy, though some will take it as such. Hammer looked as off the pace as anyone in 2017 while the Hawks were getting aerated by the Predators. The thought was after three long playoff runs, the miles on the odometer had taken a toll that was just not going to be undone. Perhaps Duncan Keith‘s wear was having a greater effect on Hammer than could be realized, which has been borne out in subsequent seasons.

It was thought that Hjalmarsson’s style of being more stationary, more physical and taking literally thousands of flung rubber to his body would see him decompose pretty quickly. And it still might. It was thought Connor Murphy could fill the role with greater mobility, and he still might. The signs on the latter are encouraging, as Murphy has had to make do with Carl Dahlstrom and Slater Koekkoek and various other rodeo clowns. But that’s still a very hard sell to a lot of watchers.

As for now, it’s probably just best to marvel at the recovery Hjalmarsson has made and the uniqueness of what he’s accomplishing this season. It’s better to trade a player too early than too late, which is the decision Stan Bowman made. But sometimes when you do that, the payoff doesn’t come for a little longer than you guessed.

 

 

Game #69 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #68 – Hawks 2, Stars 1: That’s Pretty Dumb

By Sam Fels 2021 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolved Hockey

De-Fense! De-Fense!

Anything that happens with this Hawks team has to be qualified in some way. The Stars are a relatively easy to team to smother if you’re locked in. They have one line, and then one guy in Jamie Benn who’s wasting his time with Jason Dickinson and Blake Comeau. So if you can keep Seguin and Radulov from producing more than one goal, you have a good chance to look as the Hawks did tonight. They didn’t do that a couple Sundays ago, and there’s your difference. The Stars just don’t have a lot of inspiration through the lineup.

Still, that’s as good a road game as the Hawks have played in…all season? Maybe the game in Pittsburgh, which was the first week of January? Either way, it’s been an awful long time since the Hawks were able to hold a team at arm’s length for 60 minutes. And they did that tonight.

I don’t know if the Hawks can ever do it again. I don’t know that it would even benefit them, given the way they’re built sets up better for 5-4 games than 2-1. Still, if they can carry out this kind of defensive effort through the last portion of the season here, no matter where it lands them in the standings, we’ll have tangible proof that Jeremy Colliton is establishing something and just maybe there’s something to build off. But long way to go until that.

To the bluffs!

The Two Obs

-The Hawks put forth that defensive effort with Gustav Forsling in the lineup. Let’s all think about that for a second.

-I still don’t know how I feel about Patrick Kane leading the Hawks in total ice-time again. On the one hand he’s the main weapon and you might as well use it as much as you can. Still, you wonder if some of his shifts wouldn’t pack a little more punch if he was getting a few more off. It also keeps Sikura under 10 minutes, and as this season is actually about development, that seems a problem. Yes, his turnover led to Dallas’s only goal, but he looked spritely otherwise. Would like to see more of him with Toews and Saad.

-Dylan Strome with a 71% share tonight. Again, it helps when he gets to face whatever Jason Dickinson is all night, but seeing as how he’s spent most of the season getting brained possession-wise, let’s start here.

-It’s amazing how much better Corey Crawford looks when you’re only asking him to make 5-6 big saves per game instead of 96.

-If you’re allowing Chris Kunitz to get five shots off in a game, that’s probably cause for relegation.

-Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom were the only pairing that wasn’t in the black, but then they were the only ones starting a majority of time in their own zone. I still don’t know quite what to make of Murphy, who was excellent in his own zone most of the game, set up the second goal with a good defensive play, and yet you can’t keep playing on the back foot. I guess we won’t know until he has a partner who can do that more effectively than anyone here right now.

-The Hawks seemed to figure out that teams are stopping their drop pass on entries on the power play, and tonight started to fake it and then just get in the zone off the initial rush. The Stars were springing their two forwards out at Kane and DeBrincat when the Hawks first made that drop pass. Faking or ignoring it got them up against two defenders with odd-mans. They’ll have to keep doing this. They’ll get more chances than they did tonight.

Wraps up a pretty tidy effort. Let’s hope for more, prepare for not. Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #67 – If You Could Only See ‘Em Then You Would Agree, Agree That There In’t No Romance Around There – Sabres 4, Hawks 4 (Hawks Win Extended Jane Byrne Interchange Project Contract)

By John Pullega 1479 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

THE BEST PART WAS WHEN THE BUILDINGS FELL DOWN. Until late in the third, this one had all the appeal of an open-air autopsy in Miami-Dade in July. But with both of these teams out of the running, there was always a chance this would turn into a shootout, and it did, literally and figuratively. In a game whose highlight was the Sharp–Burish Eagleman parody, it’s nice for the outcome not to be in vain. Unless you’re rooting for a tank, in which case, I can’t help you. To the bullets!

– Brendan Perlini had himself a game tonight. Playing alongside DeBrincat and Strome will do that sometimes, but he really took advantage. In just under 11 minutes, he scratched a 58+ CF% and scored the game-tying goal. His 18.67 CF% Rel led all Hawks forwards on the night, and frankly, it wouldn’t have been upsetting to see him get a little bit more time tonight. He’s probably not much more than a 2019 version Kris Versteeg (1.0 or 2.0 is still TBD), but that can be fun sometimes. I liked that Colliton slotted him there tonight.

– Because we can’t have nice things, a nice performance from Perlini on the second line was balanced by John Hayden appearing on the first line because Colliton’s genious brain is a muscle that needs to be flexed, apparently. He might be a nice guy, and he’s got a degree from Yale—which will no doubt be helpful for when he commits securities fraud after he retires, or whatever it is rich prep boys do in their free time—but he’s not a hockey player for this generation. In just over six minutes, he had a 4 CF against an 11 CA, good for a team-worst 26.67 CF%. The next worst was Patrick Kane, but he also does things like score goals and create assists. Unless you can find someone who either actually commits to GRITHEARTFAAAAAAART or reads Ayn Rand unironically, it’s time to cut bait. He’s just not very good.

– If the Hawks had managed not to play jump rope with their own dicks and win this in regulation, this would have been the ARTEM ANISIMOV GAME. His first goal came on a breakaway (lol) off two excellent tic-tac-toe passes from Kane and Kahun, and the second was sheer power from our widest dicked forward. If he wants to keep Refrigerator Perrying his way into goals, that’d be fine.

– Murphy and Dahlstrom were nails tonight. They dominated the Eichel line to the tune of a 64+and 66+ CF%, respectively. Murphy almost contributed on the score sheet too, with a nice kick to the stick wrister off a Kunitz pass. Connor Murphy probably tops out as a 2A guy on a good team, but when given 1A matchups tonight, be performed admirably.

– Crow was a little urpy tonight. You’d think that he had that first goal caught in his glove, but his fumble, compounded with Seabrook’s Cubist positioning and the delayed penalty, gave Vladimir Fucking Sobotka free rein near the crease. He also totally lost his net on the shorthanded goal unnecessarily. Still, he managed to keep the Hawks within shouting distance, even if that meant taking a hard Sheary wrister right off the mush late in the first. Poor guy can’t catch a break. These games don’t matter much, but seeing how Crow finishes out the year is something to watch. He’s obviously shaking off some rust, but if he can finish strong, it’ll be something to hang onto going into the offseason.

– When Erik Gustafsson is scoring, you can put up with his treasonous dereliction of duty in the defensive zone. When he’s not, it’s worse than watching your mother fuck your bully. He was putrid tonight at all times, falling asleep in coverage on Okposo’s goal being the most obvious. In a perfect world, you pair him with something that looks like a better version of Dahlstrom and let him bum slay, especially if he’s just not going to learn how to play defense. But if he’s not scoring, he’s not worth even the modest salary he’s making now. Something to watch going forward, now that the Hawks don’t have much to play for.

– With each passing day, buying out Seabrook’s contract looks like the only solution to that problem, which is a fucking shame in the grand scheme. He was mostly responsible for Montour’s goal, as he wandered out to the near boards to cover Smith despite Montour and Pominville streaking through the middle of the zone. If he sags back, which is really all he can do anymore anyway, it’s at worst a 2-on-2, with Seabrook covering Montour and Keith covering Pominville, leaving Smith at the point and preventing Montour from taking all that space.

– The power play looked like complete shit. The last thing Coach Cool Youth Pastor needs is for the one thing that he can point to as making better taking a huge dump on him toward the end of the year. It’s only one game, but they looked terribly out of sorts.

– Top Cat had a couple of excellent chances that he just missed on. The most disappointing miss came off Kane’s rebound on the PP, which looked like a guarantee coming off his stick. Instead, the puck rung around the boards to Rodrigues, who blew away a half-assing Kane and led to Bogosian’s highlight reel goal. Shit happens.

– Duncan Keith had a pretty good game. His goal was good, aggressive awareness. His possession numbers were a refurbished marital aid, which is concerning because he didn’t match up with the Eichel line too much. But he wasn’t a complete tire fire. Baby steps.

– Garbage Dick hopped over Larmer for fourth in Hawks history with 924 points on his assist on Keith’s goal. Creep can roll.

If you’re a Brendan Perlini or Artem Anisimov fan, you had a really fun time tonight. And for as stupid as 3-on-3 OT and the shootout are, they’re mindless fun. Which is exactly the kind of fun we need with this team.

Onward . . .

Booze du Jour: High Life and Maker’s 46

Line of the Night: Each team has had the lead in the game! Who’s gonna win it? –Foley

Everything Else

Angry At Numbers: Saad Appreciation Society

By Sam Fels 1485 0

We’re into our silly bits of trivia around here. One of McClure’s favorites is that David Krejci is the only player to lead the league in playoff scoring twice and not win a Conn Smythe (went to Thomas in ’11, and hilariously and wrongly to Kane in ’13). Brandon Saad might get his own one day, though this one is more subjective. It’s quite possible that Saad will be on the losing end of two trades involving the same team! If Anton Forsberg had worked out, maybe the first Saad trade would have been considered a wash. Artem Anisimov is never going to win my heart over, though. And at the time we thought Panarin was just a Kane-byproduct.

Clearly, Saad is not going to live up to that half of that trade. And perhaps it was just another example of Stan Bowman trying to stick it to Joel Quenneville. We won’t know until the tell-all comes out right about the time we find out who killed Kennedy.

Saad’s season was infuriating in some ways, not least of which was a 7.4 SH% that kind of nullified the excellent work he and Toews were doing. Both have seen a market correction in that department this year, with Saad already past last season’s 18 goals.

But I want to point out the near-dominant work that Saad has put up since the new year, where he’s found a home with David Kampf on the third line, and now Marcus Kruger.

54.9, 52.6, 51.0

+11.8, +11.9, +15.7

The first set of numbers is Saad’s Corsi, scoring chance percentage, and high-danger scoring chance percentage. On their own, you’d say they were ok to good, maybe a touch better. The next three numbers are what they are relative to the team-rate, which is some of the best numbers around. Saad’s relative-Corsi since the new year is fifth in the entire league (Panarin is first, dishearteningly), the scoring chance number relative is 11th, and the high-danger one 23rd. That’s forwards and d-men.

Saad is just not going to be a top-line, Hossa-Jr., atomic-leg-dropping-the-world winger that we all thought he could, and perhaps should be. However, just because he’s on the third-line now doesn’t mean he’s a third-liner either, though bum-slaying seems to have connected with him nicely. If he had demonstrated in the past he would take to the right side, and I think it’s still worth another try, you could swap him and Kahun and I’m fairly sure he, Top Cat, and Strome would do some things that would make you chuckle. But for now, we’ll take this.

50.9, 44.9

And again, we’re studying a trade from the summer of 2017. The first number is Niklas Hjalmarsson’s Corsi, and the second is Connor Murphy’s. You can hear Joel Quenneville cackling with delight, if he read us and cared about metrics. The image of that though makes me smile.

As we’ve stated in the past, Murphy and Hammer are getting some of the most dungeon shifts in the league. They rank fourth and fifth from the bottom in terms of offensive-zone starts. Basically, they never start anywhere but their own end. And when looking at relative numbers, Murphy’s -1.12 Corsi-relative and -0.54 xGF% are actually some of the best among d-men who are also chained to the radiator. It’s just that Hjalmarsson is having a unicorn season, where his relatives are +2.52 and +6.7. So fuck him.

This is where you’d point out that partnering with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a different animal than partnering with Carl Dahlstrom or Slater Koekkoek. And you’d be right. Hjalmarsson’s numbers do drop a bit without OEL, though not off a cliff.

It’s going to be a debate next year when, at the very least hopefully, Jokiharju and Boqvist are here. You won’t really realize all Murphy can be, or at least see what that is, until you give him a partner that can get the play up the ice that he can play free safety for. Those two are supposed to be that. But neither of those two kids should be given such horrific zone starts. Guess we’ll worry about it next year.

-4.59, -4.24, -7.58

That’s the difference in Jonathan Toews’s relative marks in Corsi, scoring chances, and high danger chances from last year to this. While Toews is having an offensive renaissance, and yes he plays on a woeful defensive team, it does seem to have come at a cost to his defensive game. Which, hey, when he’s shooting 17% you can live with it. He’s no longer the possession-dominant player he once was, even last year.

But the process…it just isn’t as good. Last year, Toews was getting more attempts, shots, and chances than he is this year. He’s just burying them far more often this season, as his SH% at evens is almost double what it was last year (8.7 to 16.1 this year). And of course he’s getting far more power play points, as he racked up just two power play goals and 12 power play points last term and already has five and 16 this year.

It would behoove the Hawks to start viewing Toews as a really good #2 center, and to try and figure out how to get a #1 ahead of him. Or hey, maybe you get a third #2 and just roll with the three along with Strome. It also appears that Toews has to decide which half of the game he’s going to pay attention to, because he probably can’t do it all anymore.

Everything Else

Game #57 – I’ll Drink Even More, I’ll Hate Them Even More Than I Did Before – Hawks 3, Bruins 6

By John Pullega 2042 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

It had to happen sooner or later, but who would have ever guessed the Hawks’s seven-game win streak would end at the hands of a team that can do more than just feign competence on the ice? Oh, you did? The Bruins ran over the Hawks from start to finish, who were a complete open sewer in their own zone tonight (more so than usual, even). Compound that with a relatively weak showing from Delia and the fancy stats finally match up with the outcome. Let’s dig around this one.

– None of us here at the Program are too wild about this man-to-man defensive scheme Colliton is dead set on making happen. Tonight is a perfect example of why that is. The Hawks posted an embarrassing 34+ CF% at 5v5. They didn’t end a single period on the positive side of the ledger. Sikura and Seabrook (?!) were the only two Hawks who had a positive CF% on the night. Over and over, the Hawks were caught double teaming because they either can’t or won’t communicate with one another when someone loses their man, which is often, because as a team they’re so goddamn slow.

This was evident on Boston’s second goal, when Murphy got caught playing Bergeron too far out along the far boards. Toews came over to cover along with Murphy, leaving Dahlstrom hanging out to to dry against Marchand and Heinen. Either Murphy needs to stick with Bergeron all the way, leaving Toews to cover Chara at the point (which is where Bergeron threw it after reading the double cover, and which doesn’t really solve the problem of who’s covering one of Marchand or Heinen down low) or Toews needs to call Murphy off and let him retreat. They did neither, and Chara had all the time in the world to throw the puck down low to two open skaters.

This was evident on Boston’s third goal. Delia gave up a comically bad rebound right in front of the net, which looked like how a dense and painful fart sounds. Of course Gus and Gusser were on the ice for that, covering absolutely no one and giving Heinen and Marchand all the time in the world yet again.

This was evident on Boston’s fourth goal (are you sensing a pattern?), with Murphy coming out way too far to cover Krejci on the near boards, leaving Jake DeBrusk all alone in front of Delia for an easy tip. This one’s a bit more excusable, since it was at the end of a PK, but still, Murphy doesn’t need to skate almost entirely past the near-side dot to cover Krejci from that bad an angle.

Those three goals were all a result of someone losing their coverage and no one covering his ass. Whether they’re communicating or not (they’re not) doesn’t really matter, because even if they are (and again, they aren’t, as evidenced by how profoundly open these goal scorers were), this team simply doesn’t have the speed to cover when coverage is blown. You’d think those thick rims Colliton borrowed from Rivers Cuomo’s dumb ass would help him see that, but here we are. This system will not work for this team as presently constituted, especially against teams who are better than “gas station toilet overflow,” which Boston decidedly is.

– This was probably Connor Murphy’s worst game of the year, and if he’s not playing well, they’re fucked. He was caught out of position more often than not and took that terrible cross-checking penalty that ended up leading to Boston’s fourth goal, which, surprise, Murphy’s poor positioning capped off. They can’t all be winners.

– Forsling and Gustafsson were festering scabs tonight too, each with a 22+ CF%. On Boston’s third goal, Forsling did that thing where he’s facing his own goaltender when his opponent scores, which is a very normal thing for an NHL defenseman who’s being showcased to do. There’s not really anything Forsling does right out there, but when your alternative is Slater Koekkoek, all you can do is wait for the sweet embrace of death to blot out the misery, because Chiarelli can’t save you anymore.

– The PK was a urethral wart tonight too. Sure, they technically killed off a 5-on-3. But Caggiula’s awful positioning on the first PK led to Boston’s game-tying goal. Then, in the third, Torey Krug drew both Kruger and Dahlstrom along the near boards, leaving Murphy alone against Heinen and Cehlarik. There’s no reason for a D-man to fly to the near boards on the PK like Dahlstrom did.

– John Hayden sucks, and the sooner they trade him to whoever takes over Peter Chiarelli’s mantle as head dumbass, the better.

– Brendan Perlini played seven minutes at 5v5 and had 0 CF and 15 CA for a 0% CF on the night. That’s fucking something. I’ve never seen it before and never want to see again.

– Kane keeps his scoring streak alive at 15 games, dropping a nifty pass to Keith, who then handed it off to Gustafsson on a 4 on 4, allowing Gus to RuPaul his way toward his 12th goal. Other than that, though, Kane was a ghost, but given how he’s quite literally carried this team over the last several months, you sort of get it.

– Watching Brent Seabrook lose the puck to no one and have to take a tripping penalty as his recovery—which led to Boston’s first goal—was very on brand.

This is what this team will look like against anyone who’s actually sniffing at the playoffs, not simply the beneficiary of the NHL’s lust for faux parity. They aren’t fast enough to play man and aren’t smooth enough to recover against teams that pressure them. Fortunately, the only marginally good teams the Hawks play for the rest of the month are Dallas and Columbus, so it’s possible they keep this playoff-run farce up for a bit longer. That would be OK, because the winning was fun, like trying to eat four dipped combos from Al’s in one sitting.

Onward. . .

Booze du Jour: Makers 46 and Pedialyte (The De-Rehydrater)

Line of the Night: Hung out in the Mute Lounge tonight.

Everything Else

My Piss And Moans Are The Fuel That Set My Head On Fire

By Sam Fels 1973 0

The past season and a half for Hawks fans have been, if not a nightmare, then certainly close enough to study a nightmare’s habits and form. I’m sure every one has their own moment where things have felt like bottom. For me it was last night, because the Hawks actually hit bottom. They are 31st in the league. They just got pumped by one team that’s rebuilding in Newark, and then pretty easily held at arm’s length by another on Broadway. They have the worst goal-difference in the league. It certainly has been a long time since the Hawks were propping up the entire league and deservedly so. And yes, those of you thinking that in the long run this may be a good thing, you may be right. If they could carry this out, land in the top two in the draft, and pry Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko that would be a step forward. If you find relief or salvation in that, I won’t stop you.

You wouldn’t think I could still find any anger after all this, but I can find it anytime, anywhere. So here’s what’s floating around my head.

-Again, to end up bottom, is most every sport these days, you’re supposed to actually plan for that. And if you haven’t planned for that, everyone is fired. The Flyers are down here, and they’ve shitcanned everyone. The Senators are stupid and should fire everyone. The Kings have fired everyone. The Panthers are probably going to fire everyone. The Wings are going to fire everyone to get Steve Yzerman in.

The Hawks did fire a coach, but if I’m taking the Hawks at their word, then how can anyone above Coach Cool Youth Pastor keep their job? They told you this team was supposed to be competitive, and they’re last in the league. There’s no way that any front office that thought this roster could make a run at a playoff spot can be deemed to be competent enough to have any influence on a future NHL team. I kind of have to believe they said different things behind closed doors than they did in front of the press, because it’s the only way to sleep through the night. If this was the belief both privately and publicly, then everyone goes.

I know what they’ll do. You know what they’ll do. They’ll hide behind the fig leaf of Corey Crawford being hurt again, and wonky when he was healthy. But don’t buy it. Let’s play it out. Let’s say that Crawford was going .925 (which would be Vezina-worthy in this year’s environment) in his starts and the starts that had to go to Delia (because Delia wouldn’t be here if Crow were healthy). That would be 15 less goals the Hawks gave up. It’s elementary and coarse, but with no other goals scored that’s still a -23 GD. Sure, score effects probably change things but how much better would that GD really be? How much higher in the standings would they be? Five points? I guess that’s touching distance to a playoff spot. Would that be just because the sludge that the Central turned into behind Nashville and Winnipeg? And five points is an awfully ambitious estimate. It’s probably closer to three and you’re still nowhere.

-We’ve been over this and over this, but this was a GM who basically has said and wants you to think he sabotaged the blue line simply to stick it to a coach he wanted to fire over the summer anyway. He put Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta on this team because “they were Q-type players”, or so he thought, and the fact that they sucked was Q’s fault, according to Stan. This team probably isn’t much better if Dahlstrom starts the year here, though maybe a little if Murphy was healthy all season. Where else would anyone get away with this? In a league getting faster and faster all the time, Stan Bowman inserted two road cones on defense simply to put a middle finger up to his coach. That’s not just fireable, that’s catapult-able. That’s a broken organization that’s too arrogant to realize it. And that arrogance is built off success they were almost entirely, indirectly involved in. Again, they draw their esteem from being born on third.

-I want to believe in Jeremy Colliton, and I do honestly think he should be given a run with a real roster next season. I would like the Hawks, or any team really, getting rewarded for going outside the box. That’s assuming the veterans haven’t already given up on him, because they’re all going to be here next year and you’d need a buy-in from them otherwise the young players aren’t going to either. But there’s no evidence that anything has improved. The only thing different is that he’s not lashing Connor Murphy with birchwood between periods for who he isn’t like Q was last year.

Yes, this team isn’t built to play the system he apparently wants. To pull off this man-system in the defensive zone, you have to be oozing speed to pressure any puck carrier all the time. There can’t be any time to breathe. The Hawks aren’t that, and are far from that. So…why wouldn’t you tailor a system to the team you have, not the one you wish to have?

Every metric has gotten worse under Colliton. Their only salvation has been a power play that has clicked (which he does credit for) and Collin Delia (which he doesn’t). The penalty kill still sucks out loud. They still take three or four passes to get out of the zone when it should be one or two or even none. Duncan Keith rarely cares. He can yell at Erik Gustafsson all he wants but that’s not getting any better defensively. Henri Jokiharju has yet to flash. Do we want this guy at the controls when Adam Boqvist is here?

-Speaking of Jokiharju, let me be clear: I don’t think he’s a bust or anything close. But the more I watch him, the more he seems a high floor guy than a high ceiling one. He’s not that fast. He’s been buried with partners and assignments that don’t let him show off what he can do on the offensive side of the ice, but we haven’t seen any of it anywhere. And he can’t be what the Hawks need him to be if he’s not that quick. He’s smooth, but that’s not the same thing. Boqvist and Mitchell are both right-handed as well, so how’s that going to shake out?

If Colliton is taking orders from above, then “above” has to find a way to give Jokiharju a steady partner so we can see what we have here. There’s only one, and that’s Murphy. Flip him to the left side, which he did plenty last year, and let’s see what HarJu can do with some shackles off. Otherwise, what are we doing?

Ok, I got it all out. We’ll come back to this next week.