Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Lose Two Of Three In Colorado: The Rocky Mountain Way Can Kiss My Ass

By Sam Fels 1355 0

Game 1 Box Score: Rockies 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Rockies 10, Cubs 3

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 10, Rockies 1

Maybe I just forget every season, or I truly didn’t realize how torturous series in Denver are. Or maybe it was not wanting to lose the buzz from that homestand so quickly, and maybe losing just two of three doesn’t do that. I leave that to you. But good god, you’re never comfortable, sure something will go wrong, and the more you watch them you’re sure the Rockies are some gimmick team that are helpless outside their own environs. It feels cheap in a way.

Anyway, each team got a blowout and the Rockies got the coin-flip. While the massive bullpen meltdowns are no more damaging, though harder to watch, it’s the slow leaks that feel worse. Sure, Montgomery just hung one pitch that got hit to goddamn Telluride, and then Cishek was the victim of some fiendish BABIP Kung Fu Treachery with Murphy’s ball hitting the motherfucking bag. Maybe Rizzo doesn’t get there anyway, but I’m willing to bet he would have. Even McMahon’s game-winning hit was a product of Coors. You can say all that.

But that’s the problem. Even when the pen isn’t actively lighting itself on fire it still leaks a run here or there, and in close games that’s all it takes when the other team has a decent pen. Montgomery might not be as dependable as he was, and his 5.17 ERA and 1.7 WHIP suggest he’s not. Perhaps the yo-yoing of his role has finally taken its toll.

The Cubs still have a few weeks to survive until Craig Kimbrel arrives, and even then the pen won’t be sorted unless Carl Edwards Jr. finally finds the fountain of control, Cishek proves he’s not still dragging from last year, and either Maples finds that same fountain or they acquire someone or Brandon Morrow actually comes up for air. It’s the only thing holding this team back.

Anyway…

The Two Obs

-Schwarber now tickling a .900 OPS out of the leadoff spot. Everyone can kiss my ass and call it a love story.

-It’s funny how we feel differently about Yu Darvish‘s start than we do about Jon Lester‘s on Sunday, even though they were both four runs over six innings. Obviously, one held the opponent down to give his team a chance to come back while the other coughed up a lead. But that’s mitigated by this being Coors Field. Darvish didn’t walk anyone, which is a big step. Of late, Yu is losing his slider less, and his straight fastball more, which is probably a little easier to control. It’s getting there, and while he might be the highest-paid starter which makes his #5 status feel wrong, it’s still a hell of a fifth starter to have if that’s how things are right now.

–Cole Hamels got half-whiffs on any change-up the Rockies swung at today, which is probably the only way to get out of that dungeon alive. Your curve is going to be affected, but your change won’t. Hamels has been nails his last three starts, which makes it unfortunate he’s the only one the Cubs won’t get to use against the Gashouse Gorillas this weekend.

-Boy, Victor Caratini is putting to rest those overcooked fears from Spring Training that Willson would get too tired come the end of the year, huh? Caratini has also been a plus-framer so far this year, whereas Contreras has been just about even.

-Heyward is a good weekend from getting up over an .800 OPS again, which would be more than acceptable.

-Quintana has shied away from using his change the past two starts, both against the Rockies. Both starts saw him give up three runs but one was in over seven innings where he didn’t get out of the fifth last night. When he doesn’t use that change, he becomes a two-pitch pitcher which is a real problem when he can’t locate the fastball.

-Boy the Rockies get red-assed, huh? To be fair the whole thing was dumb. They weren’t trying to hit Kris Bryant twice in a game, and I don’t know how hitting Arenado makes Bryant un-hit or will prevent anyone from hitting Bryant again. We really think a pitcher on another team is even going to know about this, much less think, “I’m not going to throw inside to one of the best hitters in the game because they might plunk my guy?” Awfully complicated. Baez putting one 450 feet away is how you do it. Do it more often.

Onwards…

Baseball

Is There Anything To Be Salvaged With Carlos Gonzalez?

By Sam Fels 1738 0

No.

 

 

…all right fine. We can try and dig a little deeper into this, but there isn’t much point. What I find curious is that on the day the Cubs unveiled Craig Kimbrel, Theo Epstein was asked about Gonzalez and Albert Almora Jr., who has lost playing time to the former’s arrival. Theo’s quote was basically that Gonzalez was here to be a bat off the bench, and Almora needed to play.

Gonzalez has started four of the past six games. If you want to know why Joe Maddon has not received a contract extension, here’s a piece of evidence for you.

Let me present some numbers:

.169/.242/.186  .429 OPS  9.1 BB% 31.8 K%

.258/.287/.536  .823 OPS  3.8 BB*  15.4 K%

The former is Gonzalez’s numbers in May, and the latter’s are Albert Almora’s. Now, Almora’s aren’t exactly breathtaking, but they come out to an above-average offensive player, just, who plays plus defense. Gonzalez’s numbers make doves cry, and his defense really isn’t any good anymore either.

It’s been three seasons since Gonzalez was an above-average offensive player, and that’s accounting for the Coors factor. His power zapped away in 2017 and hasn’t really ever come back, though the .467 slugging off the bench would be fine. You’d take it. We all understand that in searching for a left-handed bat simply to replace Ben Zobrist and maybe take PH ABs from Daniel Descalso and his other interpretation of sadness at the plate, the options you can have for free are limited. It’s a free roll of the dice.

But you’re still going to get snake-eyes. And it’s fine for now because Kyle Schwarber has carried the outfield, and Gonzalez has cobbled together a couple hits that has fooled everyone into thinking he can still hit, which he can’t. Unless his .211 average since joining up really makes something stir in your bowels.

So I’m trying to see what the Cubs think they might be able to mine here, and my hope is that Joe Maddon is only trying to get CarGo in a rhythm before he’s reduced to simply pinch-hitting and spot-start duty. The only thing I can fathom is that the Cubs think they can get CarGo to go the opposite way more, which he actually does well but doesn’t do often. CarGo has been a pull everything guy for most of his career, settling for somewhere between 20-25% of his contact going the opposite way. CarGo has consistently run an average over .400 on balls the other way, though that might have something to do with being shifted against a lot and there being a lot of open territory there. But that’s belied somewhat by most of his contact the opposite way is still in the air, where a shift wouldn’t do much about it.

That’s about as near as I can figure, and his homer the other night, certainly a Wrigley product given where it landed, is hopefully a sign that CarGo is willing to change his approach to salvage another year or two in the majors. Beats working at Sears, as we know.

Still, it’s awfully harsh on Almora. I’m not Almora’s hugest fan–he hits way too many grounders and is slow, but this May was his first plus-month in the majors since the first half of last year thanks to an injection of power. There were still way too many grounders, over half his contact was, and maybe the Cubs have already concluded he would crash back to Earth with that. Still, May saw Almora hit the ball harder than he ever has, and his .253 BABIP in the month suggests he had to fight through fortune to produce a plus-month instead of ride the wave as he did last year.

It wouldn’t be a big deal, and it probably isn’t anyway yet, if Jason Heyward were hitting. But he’s not. So Joe Maddon is essentially tossing another outfield spot away on a hunch that isn’t going to play out, whereas Almora still allows us to be curious about what could come next. To boot, CarGo’s defense just isn’t that good in right.

I get the impression this won’t be a problem come July 1st when everyone sees CarGo is toast, but you never know with Maddon. And by then Almora might have lost all his momentum. He’s at least the devil we don’t know completely yet instead of the corpse we do.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rockies: This Is The Funhouse

By Sam Fels 1164 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 37-27   Rockies 33-31

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 7:40, Wednesday 2:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and Wednesday, WGN Tuesday

PROBABLY HAVE NEVER HEARD OF JOE WALSH: Purple Row

PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS

Yu Darvish vs. German Marquez

Jose Quintana vs. Peter Lambert

Cole Hamels vs. Antonio Senzatela 

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Victor Caratini – C

Addison Russell – 2B

Carlos Gonzalez – RF

Jason Heyward – CF

PROBABLE ROCKIES LINEUP

Charlie Blackmon – RF

Trevor Story – SS

David Dahl – CF

Nolan Arenado – 3B

Daniel Murphy – 1B

Raimel Tapia – LF

Ryan McMahon – 2B

Tony Wolters – C

 

After a successful homestand that seemed to wash away the struggles of the previous week, the Cubs head out on a not particularly pleasant road trip. The first stop is the baseball funhouse that is Coors Field, where the hope is to get out alive as much as winning the series. Something stupid always happens during the course of these, and it feels like there’s almost always at least one 13-11 loss where the lead changes with every half inning starting in the 6th. The Cubs will do their best to avoid that, as the Brewers aren’t going anywhere.

The Rocky Tops spent the interim between these series with a weekend in Queens (what a fate), losing two of three to the mystery box Mets. But hey, sometimes you just get Thor’d and Matz’d, even if the latter’s elbow is made of wishes and dreams at this point. That’s the annoying thing about the Mets. The Cubs will worry about that next week, though.

The Cubs will get another look at Peter Lambert, whom they didn’t have an answer for at Wrigley and helped the Rockies avoid a sweep. The difference this time around is they’ll also see Antonio Senzatela, who’s had a small home run problem, which is actually a big problem. They got past German Marquez last week, and will have to do so again tonight which is generally not what you’d choose.

The Rockies are in something of a tough spot. The Dodgers are already over the hills and far away, and barring something completely inexplicable they won’t be caught. The deficit is 11 games. Which leaves them wondering just how hard to push for a coin-flip spot, which would be their third in a row. It got them…well, a quick exit last year, and they assuredly had higher hopes this time around. But are you giving up assets for half a playoff spot? You wouldn’t think so, and there’s plenty of competition with whichever of the Cubs or Brewers don’t get there, the Braves, if the Nats can ever get their head out of their ass, and the Diamondbacks are ahead of them as we speak.

As strange as it might sound, the Rockies could probably use another bat or two. The numbers make it look better than it is thanks to altitude, but they have holes in center, left, and the right side of the infield because Daniel Murphy is very crisp at the moment. Getting David Dahl more playing time would help, and they’re going to try and stick him in center and hold their nose and hope nothing explodes. He did play there in the minors, and maybe the improvement in his bat is enough to keep Ian Desmond on the bench, as one of the more boneheaded signings in recent memory.

The Rockies should be putting up boxcar numbers every night. Right now they only put up good ones. If Gray can avoid blister problems they probably have enough in the rotation and pen to make a run at the coin flip spot, but that is just about the height of their expectations right now.

For the Cubs, they’ll just try and not have a shredded pitching staff to roll into Los Angeles with, which is the last place you’d want to do that. Joe Maddon will give Carlos Gonzalez at least one start you’d think in his old stomping ground, which…fine. Just not going to waste the breath. There will also be a game where he deploys the hands team in the outfield for the whole thing because he might have to. Yu Darvish looks for an actual decision this time, maybe even a win.

These are always silly. Try and enjoy the ride.

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Cardinals: Pretty Good For A Bunch Of Sucks, No?

By Sam Fels 2163 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 3, Cardinals 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 9, Cardinals 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 5, Cardinals 1

It was only a week ago before most of Cubdom was tearing their hair out and declaring it was all over people, we don’t have a prayer. Swept in St. Louis tends to bring everyone to the irrational zone. The Cubs just has a bad couple weeks, but they seem intent on backing up a bad 10-12 games with a solid month, and they certainly got off to a great start to that by taking six of seven on a homestand. The Cards came into this series with a chance to really vault themselves into the discussion. They leave 5.5 games back and under .500. The Brewers are enough to deal with, thanks.

Let’s get to it.

The Two Obs

-We’ll have to start with Kyle Schwarber, who appears primed to go on a binge. He didn’t start on Friday, but had four hits the past two days, four RBI, a homer on basically a half-swing after seeing 11 pitches Saturday, and another two doubles. The War Bear’s OPS has now crawled above .800, and his OPS from the leadoff spot is higher than Dexter Fowler’s was in 2016 so maybe everyone can shut the fuck up about Fowler for like five minutes? His ABs have been great for a while now and he wasn’t getting the results. This is what he should have gotten. I don’t think this is just a hot streak. I think this is what he is. Let’s go.

-We can go over Jon Lester’s numbers and trends all we want. Point out the added walks and the less ground balls and the harder contact. But at the end of the day, he might just be Sargent Hartman’s corollary, “Sometimes guts is enough.” He’ll have bad innings, he’ll have bad starts even. But more often than not, he’s just going to find a way. He had a bad inning last night, and then tossed five innings where the Cards didn’t even get the ball out of the infield. I’m not sure how, Don’t even know why. He just did it.

-Meanwhile, Cole Hamels on Friday decided it was time to go back to the fastball, as he threw it more than he had in his last five starts. It was mostly that and change-ups, and the Cards didn’t have much of an answer.

-The pen didn’t give up a run all series, but was only asked to cover six innings over three games. Given that workload, just about anyone can find the finish line. So keep doing that.

-You know, I spend a good amount of time bitching about Jason Heyward, but he’s still carrying an above average OPS and wRC+ and if he can hit more balls hard like he did this weekend, he’ll probably stay there. With that defense, that’s enough.

-Kyle Hendricks…man, there isn’t much more to say. He didn’t use the curve hardly at all tonight, but his new toy is going up in the zone and I have no idea how he’s getting away with it but I don’t have to. As long as you’re hitting the corners up there too, then you’ll have the success you have hitting the corners down low.

-I think we might just have to say David Bote is good. I’m not sure I believe it, but given what he’s asked to do an .827 OPS is really outstanding.

-I’m not sure this Cardinals thing is going to work out because Carpenter is actually old, Ozuna isn’t actually that good, and Goldschmidt is going to have to carry it all at some point. Totally heartbroken about it, let me tell ya.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cardinals vs. Cubs: Gotta Get Back The Get Back

By Sam Fels 1251 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cardinals 31-29   Cubs 34-27

GAMETIMES: Friday 1:20, Saturday and Sunday at 6:05

TV: NBCSN Friday, Fox Saturday, ESPN Sunday

HE DOESN’T LIKE YOU: Viva El Birdos

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Miles Mikolas vs. Cole Hamels

Jack Flaherty vs. Jon Lester

Adam Wainwright vs. Kyle Hendricks

PROBABLE CARDINALS LINEUP

Dexter Fowler – RF

Paul DeJong – SS

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B

Marcell Ozuna – LF

Jedd Gyorko – 3B

Harrison Bader – CF

Matt Wieters – C

Kolten Wong – 2B

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Carlos Gonzalez – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – RF

Victor Caratini – C

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

The Cardinals had a sweep to avenge last weekend down in Mos Eisley, and now so do the Cubs. If they were to trade sweeps all season, this would probably turn into some holy war. There is obviously no better or worse feeling, depending on how that particular set goes for you. The last thing we need is to be this bipolar, but we’ll take a Cubs sweep this weekend. Let’s get greedy.

Since the Cubs last saw the Cards five days ago, they split two games with the Reds and had one rained out. Thanks to the scheduled off-day and then bonus one, the Cubs will see the same three pitchers they couldn’t do much with last weekend. So that’s a treat. Perhaps the frequency of appearances will help. Lester and Hendricks didn’t throw against the Cards last time, so that…helps? Basically we’re all gonna shit if the Cubs are held at arm’s length by Adam Goddamn Wainwright again, is what I’m saying. But if his defense keeps pulling rabbits out of their ass like they did last time…hopefully the line drives the Cubs did hit aren’t right at people this time.

The Cards are carrying a couple injuries into this one. Matt Carpenter left the game yesterday early and isn’t playing today, and it’s questionable whether he’ll play this weekend. Yadier Molina continues to be out and there’s no word on when he might be back. Which is actually fine for them, though you’ll never get anyone to say it, because Matt Wieters has been bette at the plate than Yadi. But he doesn’t provide the kind of leadership where you ignore what’s actually going on during a play to argue with an ump or ground out harmlessly to short a lot. I guess we just don’t understand baseball.

For the Cubs, they’ll trot out the goofy lineup today when you know it’s the time where Maddon thinks it’s time to give the team a chuckle. Greatest Leadoff Hitter In History Anthony Rizzo returns as Schwarber is given the day off. Somehow, Maddon is still convinced that Carlos Gonzalez isn’t dead, and he’s hitting third, giving the hands team in the outfield the full game. Maddon also hasn’t noticed that Heyward hasn’t hit in six weeks, so he’ll be in the five-spot. Good times all around here. At least Almora and Bote are playing I guess. Maybe this is just not the thing to worry about right now.

The Cards can get right into the thick of this with a series win, as they’re only 2.5 games behind the Cubs and Brewers. And their schedule is awfully light after this, with 11 games against the Marlins and Mets after this, whereas as the Cubs have to go to the funhouse of Coors Field and then into the tiger pit of Dodger Stadium. Then again, playing the Marlins didn’t do much for the Brewers this week. That’s baseball.

It’s been a good homestand so far. Be a good idea to finish it out strong.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Rockies: The Answers Aren’t Here And Not Here

By Sam Fels 1272 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Rockies 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 9, Rockies 8

Game 3 Box Score: Rockies 3, Cubs 1

It was a series somewhat overshadowed by the Cubs making a signing during Game 2, which is usually only reserved for trades. Such is the way of the game these days. Anyway, the Cubs got two of three, three of four on the homestand so far, which is a nice recovery from what had gone on the past two weeks. Win the series against Mos Eisley, and you’ll have a 5-2 homestand which is just what the doctor ordered. At least the offense is back…until it wasn’t. The rotation definitely is though.

-Tuesday night featured another Kyle Hendricks gem, and he was really accentuating the upper part of the zone. Have a look:

Hendricks’s new wrinkles this year is to go up the ladder and to throw more curves, 16 of which he chucked on Tuesday night, a season-high. When you have as free-swinging an outfit as the Rockies are, you get a pretty easy night at the office.

-You can tell Maddon is jumpy about his pen, as Hendricks was allowed to throw 111 pitches and then Quintana today went one batter into the eighth.

-You can’t blame Maddon after last night’s tour-de-stupid. Brad Brach is a nothing, and it’s time the Cubs realized that. So is Kyle Ryan. I keep stressing that Montgomery and Chatwood, who are stretched out, should be thrown multiple innings whenever possible to limit everyone else’s exposure. Perhaps the biggest disappointment with Maddon’s management, on the field that is, is his lack of imagination with his pen usage. He wants his closer, his 8th inning guy, and his 7th inning guy. He seems tempted to use Chatwood that way at times, but not consistently, and Montgomery as a one-inning guy just doesn’t make any sense.

-That’s enough of Daniel Descalso, thank you.

-The Cubs might have gotten a couple lightning strikes out of Carlos Gonzalez, but don’t fool yourself. He’s finished. He’s only had one season where he was anything but an average hitter away from Coors, and that was four seasons ago. Albert Almora seemed to have secured regular playing time, and then it vanished for this. Which just isn’t fair, unless you’re going to sit Heyward, and sitting Heyward for Gonzalez is the definition of running in place. The only benefit is the hands team the Cubs can put in the outfield late in games now.

-However, he was at the turning point of last night’s game, when German Marquez decided to pitch around CarGo and then hit Contreras, before Bote cleared the bases. I don’t know if it was from memory or a favor to an old friend, but it defied explanation. Even despite the Cubs’ pen’s best efforts, they couldn’t seal a game that had already been blown open.

-Next time, maybe just let Yu try and work himself out of his own trouble instead of protecting his psyche, because letting the pen come in and start various bonfires isn’t going to help it either.

-It does feel like the Cubs always huff paint when facing a pitcher making his major league debut, but I’m sure if I looked, or knew where to look, the numbers wouldn’t bare that out. It’s still annoying as fuck, though.

Onwards…

Baseball

A $6 Million Indictment

By Sam Fels 1880 0

$6 million. It’s a lot of money to you and me, so before someone pulls that arrow out of the quiver let me head that off. But it’s not a lot of money to a Major League baseball team. And that’s what the cost, or savings, was for the Cubs to get over the line and decide their bullpen needed Craig Kimbrel. And the corresponding taxes, which would have been at most another $2 million. For strictly on the field matters, Cubs fans should be excited about the Kimbrel pushing Strop to the 8th. He might not be what he was, but he’s miles better than what was here.

But at the cost of how many wins already? They might not matter in the end. The Cubs are in first now, they very well may be by the time Kimbrel makes it to Clark St., and if you win the division you win the division and it doesn’t really matter if you do it with 96 wins or 100 (though can’t help but notice the last three WS champs had 100+ wins and the last six WS participants were 97+). Perhaps that’s the bet the Cubs are making.

It’s not just the Cubs, of course. Every team could have used Kimbrel. Every team should have been trying to get him in the winter, when this is supposed to be done. They can throw whatever reason they want at you with their bullshit, but it was all about squeezing another dollar of profit and not about making their teams better in some stealthy way. It was so blatant and callous, it’s impossible to ignore.

Am I supposed to believe that $6M+ a draft pick that very well may be a nothing one day was so important that it had to wait this long? And how are Cubs fans supposed to feel good that it took a personal disaster for Ben Zobrist for the Ricketts to decide that money was open now? That’s no one’s fault really, it’s not like they planned it, but yet you can’t help but notice the sheer coldness of it.

I can’t sit here and honestly believe that the Cubs front office thought this bullpen was acceptable to go into a season with. They’re not stupid. That would have been criminal incompetence, the kind you only see on Madison St. (take your pick of which resident there). They knew this pen would need augmenting. They knew it in January. So why are we waiting until July?

The strangest thing is the quiet, outright silence, about it from Theo. I don’t expect him to go firing on his boss in the press, but something is amiss. Maybe he was told it was a one-year thing, and maybe that’s why they’re leaking Marquee opening up the cash flow next winter already. But I can’t believe Theo would be delighted to work under a complete factitious budget that is only in the Ricketts’s head. They’re worth $2.2 billion, I feel like that has to be mentioned every time.

Maybe my eyes are lasered on the Ricketts’s these days because they’ve been so distasteful, and the Kimbrel signing comes on the same day it was out there that a RNC donor event will be held at Wrigley (the proximity to Boystown should make for interesting viewing). What’s pretty clear, and should have been for a while, is that the Ricketts kids are just a bunch of vapid assholes convinced of their superiority by their born on third nature. Hardly their story alone.

And yet they end up with the closer they needed long ago, and very well in time to get the Cubs to the playoffs. And I’ll still cheer when Kimbrel starts firing fastballs by people, because I’ll be damned if I’m going to let a vapid asshole like Tom Ricketts rob me of something I’ve loved since I could walk. Maybe that’s what I tell myself as a rationalization, along with, “There is no such thing as ethical capitalism.”

The whole thing just feels gross. Craig Kimbrel had to wait until now to be paid what he was worth, and he had to wait for a fellow pro’s life to fall apart, and he had to wait for someone with more money than all of us combined will ever know to decide that a pittance was ok to part with now, and he had to wait that some kid who he’ll never meet and may never make it won’t be tossed as a make-weight for merely signing a contract.

I can’t believe the Cubs were incompetent this winter, because that’s just not what they were. So they were lying. It’s clear now, though it was then. It’s hard to feel good about that.

 

 

Baseball

Cubs Are Pushing Hard For Craig Kimbrel, Because They Have To Be

By Sam Fels 1421 0

It would be hard to believe that the cost of a draft pick, or the few million in prorated dollars the Cubs will save now, was enough to put them off Craig Kimbrel in the winter. But apparently it was, and the Cubs have waited for the in-season discount to heavily go after him. Reports today from various Athletic outlets have the Cubs really making a move. Whatever that may mean, but it would be hard to believe that Kimbrel is taking a one-year deal.

From the Cubs side, they almost have no choice. They don’t have a wealth of prospects they can keep tossing aside to get the requisite number of relievers they need, which is multiple. So they might as well get a good one for free. They tend to leave room in the budget for midseason acquisitions, and we don’t know how much of that Kimbrel would gobble up. They’ve also been making noise that the establishment of Marquee is going to turn the cash spigot on next winter, and this may be a small advance on that. Believe that when you see it, though.

Are there baseball concerns with Kimbrel? Some, yes, but it depends on what your scales are. Kimbrel’s strikeouts in ’18 were down from ’17, but that’s only because ’17 was such an galactic season from him. He struck out 50% in ’17. Half. No one is going to keep up that pace, and he didn’t also have to. He struck out 38.9% last year, which is so far beyond anything anyone else in the Cubs pen can do that it’s not even worth talking about. It’s about his career-average, which is 41.6%. It’s not a huge concern.

His walks are a bit more. They were 12.6% last year, which is too high but also a number he’s gone over before. But even with those walks, his WHIP was o.99. Yeah, walks are bad, but if no one ever hits you, you can get away with it. Sure, that WHIP was down from ’17’s dungeon master 0.68, but right in line with his career 0.92. It shouldn’t get your hackles too far raised.

Encouragingly, whatever contact Kimbrel did give up, it was much softer, as he saw a 12% dip in hard-contact. If his strikeouts aren’t going to be half anymore, then softer contact is important. Kimbrel is getting it.

Another note was that Kimbrel’s velocity was down between his last two seasons, from 98.3 to 97.1. But that ’17 mark was a spike, because 97.1 is his career average. His curve got a little more slurvy last year, which might raise an eyebrow. It lost some vertical drop but gained horizontal cut. It’s really the change of pace that’s important, but that’s something to watch if he ends up here. If this matters, and I don’t know if it does, his curve had the same spin-rate the last two years. The horizontal release point on it moved farther wide, meaning he was throwing more across his body, which might explain why it had that slurve-type movement. Whether that’s intentional or not we’ll find out.

Another yellow light was last year’s playoff performance, where he gave up runs in his first four appearances against both the Yankees and Astros, and then another two runs in Game 4 against the Dodgers. In the interim he loaded up four outings where he didn’t give up anything over four innings, just one hit. There’s really not much to explain. He wasn’t good, facing some other worldly lineups, and if he were a Cub he’d have to face one or two more for everything to work out the way we want it. But the question would be if he can’t do it, who can?

Kimbrel isn’t a cure-all. The Cubs would need at least one more arm, preferable from the left side but at least someone who gets lefties out. Still, Kimbrel, Strop, Mystery Acquisition, Cishek is a nice base, and if Carl Edwards or Dillon Maples (or Alzolay?)  or both ever figure it out, with this rotation, I’ll take my chances. There’s still a lot of ifs there, but the signing of Kimbrel would make it seem like there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

And this is a season the Cubs should try and maximize. They might not have this good of a rotation again, even if it had a wonky couple weeks there. The offense is really good, despite what everyone is screaming while stabbing themselves in various sensitive places. Maybe it’s just the right to get thwacked by the Dodgers, but in a short series, take your swing.

They’ll have competition, but the Cubs probably have to make this work.

Baseball

Series Preview – Rockies vs. Cubs: Heater vs. Cooler

By Sam Fels 1215 0

vs.

RECORDS: Rockies 31-27   Cubs 32-26

GAMETIMES: Tuesday and Wednesday 7:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THINGS TO DO WHEN YOU’RE DEAD: Purple Row

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jeff Hoffman vs. Kyle Hendricks

Geman Marquez vs. Yu Darvish

Jon Gray vs. Jose Quintana

PROBABLE ROCKIES LINEUP

Raimel Tapia – LF

Trevor Story – SS

David Dahl – RF

Nolan Arenado – 3B

Daniel Murphy – 1B

Ryan McMahon – 2B

Ian Desmond – CF

Tony Wolters – C

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Carlos Gonzalez – RF

Victor Caratini – C

Jason Heyward – CF

Addison Russell – 2B

 

And so the return. The last time the Purple were in Wrigley, the Cubs were watching a second team in as many nights celebrate on their field, having managed two runs over some 22 innings. It was quite the piece of performance art. The Rockies come in this time around the hottest team in baseball, having won nine of their last 10 and eight in a row. While you first think of them having got off to a horrendous start and languishing somewhere in the desert of the pointless, they’re only one game worse off than the Cubs. They’re just in the wrong division. But if we’re doing wild card chases already, and I guess we are, they’re right in the thick of it.

The schedule certainly did the Rockies a favor over this last stretch. One they were at home, and two they were playing some of the more punchable teams around. Lineup the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays in front of anyone able to remain upright for a good hour and you’re probably going to get that team some wins. But hey, can only play who is in front of you and all that.

As you might imagine, the offense got pretty healthy over that stretch, piling up 22 runs in three games against the Jays, 26 over four against Arizona, and 22 against the Os over three. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Storey are particularly hot, with the former batting near .500 over the past two weeks and the latter the latest player of the week in the NL. Coming in behind them is David Dahl, subbing for the injured Chuck Nasty, at .420 the past 14 days. Basically everyone with a bat is feeling pretty good about themselves, though overall catcher, first, and second have been dark spots for them. And Dahl should be playing every day somewhere, but the need to cram Ian Desmond into the lineup due to his paycheck and Blackmon’s inability to cover center anymore is another complication.

The Cubs will sadly see the two best starters the Rockies have in Gray and Marquez. They won’t get to see Freeland this time around, who’s been a grade-school chemistry experiment all season. Gray has had some home run problems, but then so does every Rockies pitcher (except for Marquez it seems). Starting it all off will be some dude named Jeff Hoffman, who has an ERA over 7.00 but can’t get a slice of luck or anyone to catch anything for him anywhere.

Much like last year, the Rockies’ pen has been the real key for them, even though they strike out less than anyone. They rank fourth and fifth in the NL in ERA and FIP (somehow right behind the Cubs if you can believe it). Wade Davis isn’t around at the moment, but Bryan Shaw, Scott Oberg, and Chad Bettis are holding down the fort just fine.

For the Cubs, they’ll welcome back Pedro Strop, who might be carried in like a Roman emperor given the state of everything right now. They got a healthy turn through the rotation and are back to Hendricks who kicked it off in Houston last Wednesday, and that’s really the key for the Cubs. When they get good starts, they’re good, and everything else settles in behind it. This is not the easiest stretch by any means, as a home date with the Cards is sandwiched with all the Rockies games of the season, and that’s followed by four in Chavez Ravine to play those aliens. Better kick it up a gear now or it could be a problem.

 

Baseball

Do I Have To Give Up On The War Bear?

By Sam Fels 1778 0

While I’m not drying to put my head through various spots of drywall after this 6-12 stretch, it has become pretty clear that the Cubs inhabit a second tier of the majors. Which is…fine. It’s certainly good enough to win the division, and even make some noise in October. They’re not 6-12 bad, just as they weren’t 2-7 bad to start the year, and probably not 22-7 good in the middle there. But what’s clear is that the Astros and Dodgers, essentially the two teams the Cubs have been compared to since the whole cycle started, are in a different class than them. It shouldn’t be that way, or doesn’t feel like it should, but let’s be honest about it.

One day in the future, we’ll do a deep dive about how the Cubs lost the high ground to the Dodgers in the NL, because they had it over them in 2016 for sure. But to put it in one line, the Cubs never created a second wave of produced players/stars after Rizzo and Bryant (throw Contreras or Baez in there if you want, though neither were “stars” in ’16). Meanwhile, the Dodgers introduced Cody Bellinger to the world, were able to be patient with Joc Pederson (or have the White Sox fuck up trading for him, your pick), now have Alex Verdugo in tow in the interim, along with reclamation projects/science experiments Max Muncy and Chris Taylor and whoever else.

And the Cubs have made bets on their products, and none have really worked out. And the one they bought biggest into was Kyle Schwarber you could argue, because there was a time and place when he would have had serious value in a trade. And now you worry they’ve held on too long and perhaps ruined that value forever, while having a player that may just never be what he flashed in 2015.

Schwarber has been able to somewhat hide under the glow of the ’16 World Series, and as much as I love the dude and still believe there’s a wildebeest in there somewhere, it’s one that annoys me. Yes, Schwarbs had seven hits after sitting out an entire season, and that is kind of amazing on that level. On another, he had one extra-base hit and strung a few singles together. And it was only 20 PAs, which is nothing. When considering what Schwarber is and what he will be, it’s best to ignore all of it.

On the other side, there’s this idea that in the two intervening seasons since he’s been a total bum. Nope. He’s been above average offensively in both, and was even a 3.0 WAR player last year, which if you can believe it made him one of the more valuable left-fielders around last year (seriously, it did. He was like sixth behind Pham, Benintendi, Rosario, Peralta, and Brantley). Schwarber hasn’t been a drag on anyone before this, he just hasn’t been the star we’d hoped.

So what’s the deal with Schwarber this year? The easy thing to say is he strikes out too much. Except he’s not striking out really any more than he ever has. And he’s walking a ton, top-15 in baseball, and walks are good. We like walks. So then the next thing to say is he’s not hitting the ball with authority. Except he is. Schwarber’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career. So his line-drive rate. If you go by Statcast, his average exit-velocity is the highest of his career as well. In fact, his 92.6 MPH average is also in the top 20 in baseball.

Could it be that Schwarber is just unlucky? The .257 BABIP would suggest so, but it’s really not that far below his career number. Because Schwarber is one who gets gobbled up by shifting infields a lot.

If you reduce it down to May, that month was even weirder for Schwarber. He walked nearly 20% of the time, had an OBP of .345, hit everything hard… and hit .196. Could it be he’s just doomed?

Schwarber isn’t the ark-of-the-covenant-horrific high-leverage hitter he was last year, but he also still is very bad. Schwarbs has a 77 wRC+ in medium leverage situations (100 is average) and 66 in high. With men in scoring position, he’s -1. -1. Like…through the looking glass awful. And yet, all his walk or strikeout or contact numbers hardly change at all when there are men on base. He’s the same guy.

What’s clear is that Schwarber has some clear holes. Fastballs even just high in the zone and middle of the plate in he can’t get to. He also can’t hit a breaking ball. Like at all. They don’t even have to be out of the zone. Don’t believe me?

Schwarber whiffs on half the swings he takes at curves, and it’s not much better on sliders. As he leads off, he generally only sees men on base later in the game, when relievers are specially trained to throw gas high and breaking stuff after it. He’s easily identified, let’s say.

I’m just not sure what the answer is. I know it’s not Carlos Gonzalez, who has been three aliens dressed as Carlos Gonzalez for like four seasons now. I have to believe that if Schwarber continues to walk nearly 20% of the time, keeps hitting the ball as hard as he is, good things will happen.

Because a dangerous, even dominant Schwarber extends this lineup to at least a point where it can see the Dodgers. There would still be holes at second, center, and right (don’t look now but Russell is kind of hitting, as gross as it is). And the bullpen needs too much work to go chasing a bat. There aren’t enough assets for everything. Unless Schwarber becomes one of those flogged assets. Is it even possible now?