Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Preview/Tommy Appreciation: One Line Over The Toke

By Sam Fels 1669 0

 vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 12-19-6   Avalanche 19-10-6

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago +

JOE WALSH SAID IT WAS COOL: Mile High Hockey

Complaining about the schedule usually seems on the petty side. Everyone has rough stretches and back-to-backs against a team that’s been waiting for them. They tend to even out. That said, the second of a back-to-back and in the middle of a three-in-four at altitude against an Avalanche team that didn’t play last night seems excessive. Maybe flying in late at night and playing straight away can be one of those things where you’re out before you notice the air is thinner. Anyway, complaint department closed. The Hawks try to keep this mini-streak of competence going against the best line in hockey. Joy.

There’s really no point in talking about the Avs beyond that top line. That’s what they are. Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel SapsuckerFrog are putting up boxcar numbers, with Rantanen and MacKinnon especially on pace for things the NHL hasn’t seen in a long time. Not only are they highly-skilled and jet-heeled, they’re big and can play with an edge. They’re an absolute nightmare. They’re underlyings aren’t that great, but they don’t have to be. Much like we discussed with Patrik Laine when the Jets were the foe, this is a line that’s always going to outshoot whatever the numbers suggest they “should” score. So good luck, Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom, especially after both took one upside last night.

The problem for the Avs, such as you can call it that, is that they haven’t found much under that line. It doesn’t matter when they’re scoring at this pace, but it could be a problem down the road. Only one forward after the top three has more than 20 points, and that’s Carl Soderberg, who is pretty much here to make up the numbers. Tyson Jost or Alex Kerfoot or J.T. Compher have not grabbed the brass ring yet, and one day the Avs will need that if they’re going to make serious noise when it counts. Otherwise you just have some competent foot soldiers here, convenient as the Avs have a big foot on the shoulder patches, like Matt Nieto or Colin Wilson or Sven Thank You Very Much Andrighetto.

On the blue line, one of their bounties for Matt Duchene has come good, and that’s Samuel Girard (always listen to the Big Dog because the Big Dog is always right). He has combined with Golf Cart Hero Erik Johnson to give the Avs a genuine shutdown pairing. Something they haven’t had since…Obi-Wan was merely a trainee himself. Tyson Barrie continues to do just enough to make you think he could be doing more, and Ian Cole is still wildly overrated. It’s a better blue line than it’s been, but it still has some miles to travel.

Phillip Grubauer was supposed to grab the #1 role from the soon-to-be-departed Semyon Varlamov, but it hasn’t happened. Varly is in a contract year, so it figures he would not be so easily displaced. That said, he’s been woeful in December, to the tune of .886. Grubs was excellent against the Canadiens last out, and he might get the chance to back it up tonight.

For the Hawks, you doubt there’d be too many changes. But there were rumblings that Colliton might roll Cam Ward out again, which would be a mistake. The Hawks have something of a glimpse at Collin Delia, and they should take it. If he’s your guy of the future, get every look you can. If it doesn’t work, hey he was just an injury-fill-in and return him to Rockford. If he takes it and runs, well then, you’ve got yourself something. Also Ward is going to turn back into Cam Ward at any moment, so why push it? Fuck, give Delia the next two. Remember what you are, and that’s a team that’s seven games under .500. You’re not getting back into this, so find out what you have when you can.

It’s a challenge given they played last night. Let’s see how up for it they are.

 

 

Game #38 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1347 0

Notes: There was talk that Head Coach Cool Youth Pastor would wheel Ward right back out there last night. That shouldn’t happen. A.) Ward will blow B). You’ve got a free hit here to see what Delia has for however long. If he can’t handle it, send him back down to season. If he runs with it, then you’ve got an out here. If he’s your guy going forward, let’s find out.

Notes: The Avalanche don’t really have 2nd-4th lines. It’s the top unit and then nine more forwards, and depending on the night their use will change…Kerfoot doesn’t have a point in his last eight…It feels like Wilson used to murder the Hawks, but those days seem to be over…Samuel Girard is kind of the shit…Laxative Log has six goals in his last five games…Zadorov is out tonight so Barberio is the likely replacement, though it could be Lindholm…

 

Game #38 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Stars Preview/Hard Eight Appreciation Society: The More You Know

By Sam Fels 2150 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 11-19-6   Stars 17-14-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SOME WERE SHOUTIN’ “TEXAS #1!”: Defending Big D

I don’t know if a team rooted to the bottom of the standings, with the worst goal-difference in the league by open lengths, can have anything resembling “momentum.” Especially when it was only two games ago it gave up a touchdown and PAT while their goalie sank back into the abyss. But hey, the Hawks played what may have been their most solid game all season against the (admittedly beat-up) Predators. And though there isn’t much to make out of the rest of the season, they won’t feel that way. So hence, they will try to build on it in North Texas, facing the same confounding Stars team they always find there.

If you thought the Predators were injury-filled, wait until you get a load of these guys. The Stars have used 12 d-men so far this season. Now you may think, “Wait a minute, the Hawks have used 10! So is 12 really that much!” Well, the Stars have had to go through their entire organizational depth on the blue line because of injuries, not because they’ve populated it with a collection of fuckwits and jackwagons.

John Klingberg has been out for weeks, but he returns tonight, so that’s great for the Hawks. So has Marc Methot and Connor Carrick, though I leave it to you to decide if that means anything, or should. Stephen Johns hasn’t played a game due to concussion problems. Klingberg has obviously been the big miss, as he’s one of the best puck-movers and passers in the league. The Stars base most of their offense on what he can do, and he can’t do anything from the trainer’s room.

And yet, with all that the Stars have been a top-10 team in goals-against at evens and overall. A lot of that is THE BISHOP! having an excellent season. Some of that is Jim Montgomery being able to keep whatever defensive unit he has on a given night playing a tight system. Or maybe it’s still the frame of Hitchcock lingering around. Either way, the Starts have survived.

Up front, it’s basically Colorado-Lite. There’s a great top line here of Jamie Benn–Tyler Seguin-Alex Radulov. While Seguin couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean right now, compared to his career shooting-percentage, these are three players over 25 points. The next forward on the list is Jason Spezza at 18, and he’s sick anyway and might not play tonight either, aside from being three days older than water. This has been the issue for the Stars for years, that they can’t seem to produce a second line, much less a third, that can support the top one. We go into this heavier in the Spotlight, but all the kids the Stars were depending on have basically gone flaccid.

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom, or meh and feh as has been the Stars case. Rookie Miro Heiskanen is making everyone go weak in the knees, and will dovetail nicely with Klingberg as a support, second-pairing player. Taylor Fedun has been an analytic revelation filling in for the depleted defense. Which is a good thing, because when you’re rolling out Roman Polak with a straight face, you’re supposed to be in trouble. And we mean literally “rolling,” because Polak can’t skate. He’s basically what Donkey Kong throws on the ice now.

All that said, the Stars are still aimed for another 88-92 points season without a jolt somewhere here soon, the same kind of season that no on remembers when it’s over. It’s also the kind of season that doesn’t push a team forward. This is not a rebuilding team blooding a lot of new kids. They won’t be bad enough to get a real piece in the draft that can help in the next couple years. They’re not contending for banners. They’re just scenery right now, and that’s the absolute worst place to be.

As for the Hawks, you would think changes would be on the minimum. Cam Ward looks to start, which means Collin Delia gets to deal with Galactus’s playthings tomorrow night in Denver in the form of MacKinnon and Rantanen, which seems a tad harsh for a second NHL start. Given the defensive effort on Tuesday, one would imagine there would be no changes there. So Brandon Manning can continue to blame everyone else while munching popcorn. Marcus Kruger didn’t make the mini-trip, and SuckBag was called up yesterday and he’ll probably slot in ahead of Chris Kunitz, because no one wants to watch Chris Kunitz ever again.

This is where we usually try and include some sort of higher meaning to the game and streak the Hawks are on. There isn’t any. They were enjoyable to watch on Tuesday. Let’s hope they are enjoyable tonight.

 

Game #37 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

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I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Unity

By Sam Fels 2386 0

You may be wondering what would be the point of watching the Hawks the rest of the season. We go through that as well. So it’s probably part of our job to point out stuff for you. It should be things that portend to a brighter future, no matter how incremental. So here’s one: since returning from injury, Connor Murphy has been the Hawks best d-man, and it’s not even particularly close. Yes, that’s not much of a claim given the state of the crew, but you asked for anything.

What’s been startling about Murphy in just six games is that he’s immediately been tossed into the dungeon as far as zone starts and competition. Overall, Murphy has started just 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and over the past four games that’s just 29.5%. For references sake, the lowest Off. Zone start % in the league among d-men is around 33%, so if Murphy keeps this up he’ll lead the league in it by some distance.

And that hasn’t really meant Murphy is getting his head kicked in. There was the ugly game on Sunday against the Sharks, but the Sharks will do that, especially when the Hawks pretty much were in mourning over Crawford and Cam Ward didn’t know how his legs worked. Murphy was equally buried against the Jets the game before, starting just 20% of his shifts in the o-zone and over half in the defensive zone. He and Dahlstrom were faced with Scheifele and Blake Wheeler all night and still managed a 45% Corsi, which considering the circumstances isn’t ridiculous. Last night saw him pitted against Johansen and Fiala, which isn’t a full-strength top line for Nashville to be fair, and though they did get the Preds’ one goal the Hawks ran over that line most of the night to the tune of a 55% share and 64% scoring-chance share.

It is just six games, so he’ll have to keep it up, but Murphy’s relative scoring-chance percentage, high-danger scoring chance percentage, and expected-goals percentage are all top-1o in the league at the moment. He’ll probably be hard-pressed to keep these going if he’s getting just 25% of his shifts in the offensive zone and starting so much in the defensive zone, as well as facing the hardest competition in the league in terms of Corsi % as he is now. But it is highly encouraging. Especially as we thought he wouldn’t be able to bend over after back surgery.

Funny enough, another d-man with some truly torturous zone-starts is one Niklas Hjalmarsson. And all of Murphy’s numbers are the same or better than Hammer’s, so if everyone could shut up about this trade for like five minutes that would be truly helpful to everyone else involved.

The reason is clear. While Jeremy Colliton may be getting a ton of things wrong (though the past few games have been better), him simply not being Joel Quenneville is doing wonders for Murphy. Last year, Murphy knew that any hint of a mistake would see him tumble down the lineup, benched, or scratched before Q retreated to his office to apologize to the alter of Hjalmarsson for failing him, followed by Q would covering himself in ox blood. Now Murphy knows he has a prominent spot and he’s not going to lose it at a whim.

The knock before on Murphy was that he couldn’t take on the top lines and competition, and only four games of doing so is not proof that he can, of course. And even if Murphy were to end up being a high-end second-pairing guy, that’s a nice piece to have around and really the absolute maximum Hammer could have offered you going forward, and for not as long.

Because while the Hawks have a logjam now on the blue line, mostly of crap, it gets worse next year. We know that Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, Jokiharju are locks to be here, for varying reasons. If I were to guess, two of Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell will be as well. That’s six, and none of them have yet proven to be top-pairing players, or have proven they are very much not. Which means if the Hawks plan to turn it around quickly, and they probably need to, they’re going to have to also find a way to bring in a genuine, top-pairing player, If Carl Dahlstrom continues his superb play, he’s also in the discussion.

The Hawks could alleviate some of it by playing seven d-men a night, which more teams should do anyway. But that won’t solve it all. If Murphy can continue to play well with the toughest assignments, it makes the picture next year at least not as daunting.

Everything Else

Game #36 – Predators 1, Hawks 2 – I Will Walk Before They Make Me Run

By Rose Rankin 2079 0

The Hawks played well tonight…I’m struggling to believe I typed those words…they played better than a team that is demonstrably more talented and a legitimate Cup contender or at least conference finalist…and so I will try to make sense of this. To the bullets:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– Right out of the gate, the Hawks had a step on the Predators. Maybe this is a consequence of the Preds being on the second night of a back-to-back. You wouldn’t think that would necessarily be the case, given that Nashville is just plain better but whatever. I don’t know and I don’t care. In particular the top line had a number of quality chances and good puck movement early on, and the second line was right there with them. By the end of the second period the Hawks led in shots 28-18, and they had a 57 and 58 CF% respectively in the first two periods. They were faster to the puck, defensively competent, and they even scored a power play goal. A power play goal, guys! I don’t even know what to say!

– Related to the whole top-line-playing-well-thing is Brandon Saad, who once again had an excellent night. He ended the night with 4 shots and 56.7 CF%. In fact he had three shots on goal barely more than 5 minutes into the game. No, he didn’t score so there was a lack of finish, let’s just get that out of the way, but he played an effective two-way game all night. He was robbed via a desperation play on a short-handed breakaway that happened because he just wanted the puck more, Rinne made an outstanding save on his point-blank chance mid-way through the third, and defensively he was spot on. Saad may not have scored but his play directly impacted the Hawks’ possession and chances. If he can keep this up I won’t even bitch about him not scoring.

– Speaking of defense, that which usually scorches your face and melts your eyeballs like the opening of the Ark of the Covenant did not do that tonight. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom are just a random pairing that’s making it work somehow. They had a 57 CF% and looked, well, competent, including the final two-minute scrum when Rinne was pulled. I even saw Duncan Keith make a couple good plays to clear the puck out of the zone. Oh, and our defensemen did the scoring. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but there is this thing called the Fels Motherfuck, and it’s real and it’s a force to be reckoned with. Tonight Gustav Forsling was the embodiment, and after sucking out loud he potted one past Rinne who had been unflappable to that point. And then Cowboy Gustafsson had the aforementioned unicorn, a power play goal. Up is down, black is white.

– Cam Ward isn’t better than Pekka Rinne, and that’s evidenced by the shots Rinne stopped tonight, including some excellent chances by Saad in particular but also Kane and a bunch of the other schlubs. Ward also gave up a fairly weak goal in the last minute of the first period after the Hawks had played really well, and I was honestly convinced that would be the end and the Hawks would shit the bed as soon as the second started. But tonight Ward WAS better. He is not objectively a better goalie but at least in this one instance, where it was clear Rinne was going to fuck us over, he was. Of course this means Collin Delia and his superfluous L will not get the chance he deserves (at least not for now), but fuck it, it’s a win.

– The second line of Strome-Anisimov-Kane was not as bad as I expected it to be. Before I go any further, do NOT take this as an endorsement of this being a line! I’m just saying that I expected a dumpster fire and instead for some reason Patrick Kane‘s give-a-shit meter was higher than usual tonight. He and Strome had multiple good sequences with shots and puck movement in the slot, from the circles, near the crease, everywhere you want them to be. Kane bulldozed over Anisimov in the first when his slow ass couldn’t get out of the way, and Anisimov was perennially a step behind his two linemates, but he wasn’t as much of a liability as he could have been. I still think that DeBrincat-Strome-Kane is as clear to see as the bulbous nose on Barry Smith‘s face, but at least tonight this worked.

– I won’t dwell here but Ryan Hartman should have gotten an elbowing penalty for embedding Marcus Kruger‘s mask into his face. No he didn’t jut his elbow into Kruger, but when he saw Kruger coming, Hartman definitely positioned it in such a way that Kruger would have to run into it. It’s kind of like an older sibling asking why you won’t stop punching yourself. Hopefully Kruger is OK soon enough.

The Hawks beat a better team in their division and did so in regulation, by holding onto a one-goal lead. I said it before but I have to reiterate—I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence. Does this mean the season is saved? Absolutely not. But it does mean that maybe they’re not an irredeemable mess EVERY night. We’ll take whatever breaks we can get, wherever we can get them. Onward and upward.

 

 

Everything Else

Game #36 – Predators vs. Hawks Preview/Sadomasochism: What Are We Even Doing?

By Sam Fels 1587 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Predators 22-10-2   Hawks WHO GIVES A FLYING FUCK?

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

PEOPLE WHO WRITE ABOUT A TEAM THAT KNOWS WHAT ITS DOING: On The Forecheck

This probably should get its own rant in its own post, but this is where we are today so we’ll just put it here. The Hawks have no idea what they’re doing, in the front office or behind the bench, and if everyone isn’t fired by the end of the season you have no reason to watch. There, I said it.

I don’t even know where to start, so I’m just going to throw a dart at the wall and start with the decision to loan Henri Jokiharju to the Finnish World Junior team. Let me remind you, in case you forgot, that the Hawks are not a NCAA or CHL team. They’re not an AHL team, though they do a fine impression of one. They’re a NHL TEAM that decided it was better for a player who is supposed to be a cornerstone of whatever comes next to play in a tournament full of children that he’s already played in and succeeded in. This isn’t sending a kid to Triple-A to get more ABs and work on going the opposite way. This is sending a kid back to High-A so he can beat up on confused kids trying to light their own farts fire who can’t throw a curveball. We know Jokiharju can hit a fastball! He needs to work on breaking stuff!

So what’s the rationale? Development? Nope, because he’s already dominated this level. He needs NHL time, and he needs it with a partner who A) cares and B) can play the NHL game. So the first one rules out Duncan Keith. The second basically rules out everyone else save Connor Murphy. So stick Jokiharju with Our Big Irish Son the rest of the year and find out what he can do. And let Keith continue his season-long pout with whoever can stand to do it.

Is it about saving this season? Because you can’t. And Jokiharju would help you do that more than anyone else if that really was the aim.

No, this is about the Hawks clogging their blue line with a bunch of useless stiffs they were somehow under the impression can play. This is so they can cram Gustav Forsling onto the ice more when it’s obvious he sucks. Gustav Forsling will never contribute to a team that means anything. Accept that now. It’s so they don’t have to simply waive Brandon Manning, because signing him to stick it to a coach you hate doesn’t really work anymore after you fire that coach and no team is dumb enough to take him off your hands because, y’know, they actually have pro scouts that don’t have vertigo and can clearly see he’s an abortion. It’s because they don’t really want to send Carl Dahlstrom down because lo and behold, he’s actually been good which they couldn’t scout or anticipate because they’re stupid. So sending HarJu away pushes off their problems for two-three weeks while they fist-fuck themselves even more and have the same problems in January.

So now that’s out of the way, let’s get to tonight’s lineup, which will only infuriate more. While the Hawks did get mullered on Sunday, they had show signs of life in the previous two games. And they had a third line that looked pretty spicy with David Kampf centering Dylan Sikura and Brendan Perlini. And while defensively they were an adventure, Dylan Strome between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane was producing goals if nothing else. And the fourth line seemed to function. So why not blow all that up to appease Artem Fucking Anisimov! And let’s move Dylan Strome to a wing! Because hey, that’s where his future lies, right?! No? WELL FUCK YOU THEN!

Stick Arty’s overpaid useless ass on a fourth-line wing until it’s time to trade him for the second and third round pick at the deadline you were always going to get anyway. Strome needs reps at center in this league. He’s not going to get better at it playing a wing, where his lack of footspeed is probably even worse for him. We know what Arty is at center, and it’s overrated garbage. The season is lost, and you better find out what you have on the younger portion of the roster.

Oh but we’re not done. I got it, let’s pair Duncan Keith and his refusal to reign in his game combined with his inability to play the one he wants that’s sprinkled with a complete lack of give-a-shit, and pair him with a d-man completely incapable of covering for him in Erik Gustafsson. That sounds good! On his offside no less! Fucking genius if I understand it correctly! Swiss fucking watch! I’ll have that and then a dessert of strychnine please! And we’ll continue to toss Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom at the top lines because there’s simply no one else even though both have been with the Hawks for about seven minutes this season.

Oh, and I’m sure Cam Ward will start because it’s not like we don’t need to find out what Collin Delia is in case Corey Crawford never returns from the land of wind and ghosts.

Jeremy Colliton, at best, is in way over his head with a roster no one can save, especially if you can’t tell any of the veterans to go screw. Or he’s a complete blithering idiot. Guess we’ll find out!

Anyway, they’re playing the Predators. They’re really good and are going to kick the shit out of this outfit while barely breaking a sweat. Even if they did play last night. Pekka Rinne will probably start after getting pulled last night in Ottawa, which is a sentence. So he’ll actually be trying because of that. Which is good when he’s been the league’s best goalie this year against a team that can’t manage a piss-up in a brewery. They’ve lost a bunch of road games of late. It won’t matter.

Fuck this.

 

 

Game #36 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built