Game #41 Preview Suite
Notes: Wouldn’t expect too many changes from a winning lineup. Maybe Martinsen comes in for Hayden…Delia starts until he drops, at least that should be the expectation…Strome is on a 55-point pace for a whole season since becoming a Hawk…hey remember when that scout said Top Cat would never be more than a 20-goal scorer? Good stuff…
Notes: Grubauer has taken the last four starts from Varlamov, and only given up nine goals in them so he might be seizing the #1 job…Wilson got hurt the last time these two met and is out week-to-week, according to the club…MacKinnon tossed seven shots at MAF in their last game and didn’t score, so he’ll be out for vengeance tonight…Compher has four points in his last three games…it’s gone a bit cold for the Avs, as they have only managed more than two goals in a game once in their last five…
Game #41 Preview Suite
As we continue with this mini-half-season-review, when you have a lost season on your hands the main thing you want to do is find hope for the future. That means what are your young players doing, and what does it look like they’ll be doing when the games might matter again, if anything.
The main one for this season, or at least the most intriguing, is Henri Jokiharju. He’s not here right now because the Hawks couldn’t count and have an even harder time scouting their own talent, but we’ll leave that aside for now. Quick were the masses to heap praise on The HarJu, I assume for not shitting himself in public. I’m more tempted to give him an incomplete. That’s not to say I think he’s been bad or needs to go to Rockford or something, because I don’t. But there needs to be more and some major steps taken.
Jokiharju has been given some tough obstacles to start his NHL career. He’s on a team flailing in the wind most nights. He was put with a partner who simply refused to adjust his own game to help the rookie’s, meaning Jokiharju is cleaning up a lot of messes that he’s just not physically ready for (strangely, Keith has been content to let Erik Gustafsson play the cowboy and be the free safety for him). And the goalies haven’t bailed him out as much as you’d hope, which can only put him more on edge. He’s had to learn two different defensive systems in the first few months of his pro career.
So partly because of all that, we’ve seen very little of the offensive game we know the Finn has. In brief flashes, we’ve seen an ability to get a shot through traffic and a keen passing eye. There is a calmness with the puck at times that belies his age. When given the chance, he does make a solid first pass, and really should be given license to do that more often with passes that go out of the zone instead of just shuffling it up to a covered forward on the boards. But there hasn’t been enough of it yet.
Jokiharju also doesn’t seem to have game-breaking speed, like future teammate Adam Boqvist already possesses. He’s not slow, but he’s not getting away from anyone yet either. Again, some of this is due to the complicated situations he finds himself in, but that’s going to have to improve a touch. He gets snowed under a lot. He needs time with Paul Goodman and a squat rack. And he probably needs a new partner when he returns from the WJC.
I don’t know if we should even include Alex DeBrincat on this list anymore, given what we already know about him. Still, it’s always fun to point out that in a preseason “Scouts’ Take” piece by The Athletic’s Scott Powers, one said Top Cat would never be more than a 25-goal guy. He’s currently on pace for a 34-32-66 season, and that’s with a fair amount of time playing on a third line. If he ever gets full-time, top-six minutes, there’s no telling where this could go.
We didn’t know we’d be writing about Dylan Strome when the season started, but it is a strange old world, indeed. Strome has looked sluggish at times, but not nearly the drunken sloth the Coyotes tried to paint him out to be after giving up on him just 50 games into his NHL career. He’s been more scorer than playmaker during his time here, but that can happen when Patrick Kane is doing most of the latter. That still portends to good things when Strome is getting to the areas to score, whatever the labels of his skating. He’s helped make the power play look competent, not only by playing the role of “Annette Frontpresence,” but being able to do more than just be an obelisk there and rotating to other spots, even the point. The hope in the back half of the season is that he’ll show more of the vision that got him taken 3rd overall in the first place. If that happens, the Hawks might have a gem on their hands here.
Dominik Kahun has spent a majority of the season on the top line, which he can’t possibly have dreamed of ever happening. He hasn’t looked totally out of place there, but it’s clear his NHL future is of a bottom-six weapon. Which is a good thing to have around, of course. He’s got some skill, and instinct at both ends. You could see him being a poor man’s Michael Frolik one day, though with slightly better finish, we can hope. He’s not a team-changer, but he looks to be a nice complimentary piece. You could envision him and David Kampf combining one day soon to be a hell of a third line.
Dylan Sikura has only been up for eight games so far, but I’ll admit to being pleasantly surprised. We basically wrote him off when he didn’t make the team out of camp after all the pub the team gave him, and last year’s quick stint didn’t show much either. He’s gotten the sweetheart shifts on a third line, but hey, that’s ok at this point. Though he hasn’t scratched goal-wise yet, his metrics are very clean-looking and he’s shown the confidence to show some dash to his game at points. Having Top Cat on the other side for most of his stay certainly didn’t hurt. Don’t know if he’s a piece yet or not, but he’s certainly earned a “Want To See More Of” label in his second go-round in the big time.
Those are the ones worth talking about.
Tomorrow night, the Hawks will cross the rubicon of the first half to the second half of the season, even if it feels like this half was 295 games long. There are a lot of issues with the Hawks that can be studied in this context, but there is no more important one than their blue line. Their blue line is why they’re the worst defensive team in the league. The blue line is why they give up the most high-danger chances in the league. And the blue line is what they’ve told you to focus on in the future. The blue line is why they keep mentioning the names Adam Boqvist (who has looked a bit tasty at the WJC so far, admittedly), Nicolas Beaudin, and Ian Mitchell. They know what the main issue is.
So let’s start our quick, half-season survey stretch by looking at the biggest issue on this team and what they’re going to do going forward.
This is only a working theory, and I’ll never prove it, but the main reason Henri Jokiharju is off with the Finnish kids instead of flying to Denver today is Brent Seabrook. And it’s because the front office didn’t want to put Coach Cool Youth Pastor in a position to have to scratch Brent Seabrook, and consistently. They’re still a touch afraid to have him tell Cam Ward he’s going to sit behind a goalie who has four NHL appearances to his name, even though it’s obvious that’s what has to happen. He’s already had to tell Chris Kunitz and Brandon Manning their services are no longer needed. But that’s one thing. Seabrook is quite another.
Here’s Seabrook’s last 10 games in CF% relative to his team:
+5.62 last night (yay!)
-2.09
-16.2
-9.5
-0.77
-6.67
-4.11
-2.96
-7.22
-33.3 (less yay)
Believe me when I tell you that the scoring chance numbers and high danger chance numbers are way, way worse. Seabrook is in the bottom-20 when it comes to relative Corsi or expected goals in the league of any d-man to play 400 minutes at even-strength this term. These are the facts and they are indisputable.
When Jokiharju comes back, it would be easy to argue that Seabrook is no longer one of the most important six d-men. That doesn’t mean best. Because you could easily point out that Gustav Forsling is just as bad, and I would happily agree with you. And this will be the Hawks’ out when The HarJu comes back, demoting Forsling as Dahlstrom appears to have played himself into the lineup every night. But this is Forsling’s make-or-break season. The games he would get to finish out the season are more important than the ones Seabrook will get. You have to find out if Forsling is going to be anything (spoiler alert: he won’t) at this level, and the Hawks probably still believe that something can be mined out of him. Having him finish the year in Winnebago County isn’t going to do anyone any good.
There isn’t a Hawks fan out there who hasn’t pointed at Seabrook’s contract as the reason for the Hawks pratfall from the NHL penthouse to the pile of mud outside the building. That’s not his fault, it is what it is. But the Hawks are doubling up on the mistake by playing him regularly. It’s sunk cost. That money is gone whether you play him or not.
As this season is lost, it doesn’t really matter what you do with Seabrook for the rest of it. Or it matters less than the summer. Because then it’s going to get ugly. Aside from him, Keith, Jokiharju, Murphy are guarantees to be here next year. Let’s just say Dahlstrom continues his strong play and carves out himself a role. We’re not even talking about Gustafssson yet. You have every reason to believe that at least one of the three of the Youth Triumvirate the Hawks keep selling you is going to be on the team, probably two. That’s five without Gustafsson and only one of Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin on the team. Any other combination and that’s six. Would you want to see Seabrook ahead of any of them?
The Hawks cannot lose yet another good player in service of paying a player who’s already past it, otherwise known as the “Bickell Process.” That cost them Teuvo and arguably Danault. It can’t happen again. Teams would absolutely call about Murphy, who has looked like the Hawks best d-man from the moment he stepped back on the ice (faint praise, clearly). They’ll be certain to call about the kids. The Hawks can’t choose nostalgia over them.
The easy way out for the rest of this season is to play seven d-men. That was something Q refused to do and most teams are loathe to (except for the league’s best in Tampa, but y’know, why take your cues from the team that’s going to put up more points than anyone has in a decade or more?). I don’t really need more John Hayden or Andreas Martinsen in my life, and you could use that hole with 11 forwards to get all of Kane, Toews, Top Cat, Saad, Strome an extra couple of shifts per night. Seabrook can play on the second power play unit and spotted shifts here and there, and both Gustafsson and Murphy have shown the ability to play either side to deal with pairing-juggling. This is a half-measure for now.
But it won’t be a solution for all of next year, especially if two of the kids make the team. That’ll put Seabrook eighth on the depth-chart. And that’s if the Hawks don’t conclude they need to go outside the organization for a top-pairing guy to help all the kids, which they absolutely, really need to do (except there’s only one UFA who fits that bill and he’s very handsome and Swedish and decidedly not coming here. Or you could offer-sheet Jacob Trouba, and in that same world I’d be marrying Scarlett Johansson).
So where does that leave everyone? To me, there’s only one way out of this.
At his exit interview, or at his summer home, or somewhere during the offseason, Stan, McD, and Rocky are going to have to sit across a table from him and tell him that everything he has done for this team is cherished and appreciated. He will go down as one of the greatest Hawks d-men ever, because he is. But at this point in his career, he’s going to be no more than a #7 on this team, and he will not play half or most games. If he’s fine with that, great. If he’s not, the Hawks will do everything they can to find a team that will take him and play him more, including paying half his salary. They owe him that.
Again, that money is gone either way. If you can get out of half of it, that’s a win. Maybe you have to include a mid-level prospect to entice, but not every one is going to make the team anyway and as long as it’s mid-level and not an established NHL-er in the vain of Teravainen, Danault, and Hinostroza. This gives Seabrook some control, as he has his full NMC, but also gives him say over how his career is going to play out. And yes, I’m willing to wager you can find a team that will take a chance on him for a mere $3M or so per season, especially if they have to give up nothing and maybe can get a lottery-ticket prospect out of it as well. And if you can’t, Seabrook isn’t bringing your team down night after night, and will know why.
For the rest of this season, and especially in the summer, this is the Hawks biggest issue. And how they solve it is going to be a fascinating, if not infuriating, watch.
vs. 
RECORDS: Wild 17-15-3 Hawks 13-20-6
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
VIKING HORN SOUND: Hockey Wilderness, Zone Coverage MN
The mini-Christmas break is over, and the entire NHL is kicking out the cobwebs, stretching it out, processing a big yawn, and getting ready to get back to the grind. And thanks to the CBA and the players’ union strange request, tonight is filled with games where the road team flies in day of and never looks like it’s all working together. You’ve seen some of them get really fed on this day, but the Hawks haven’t gotten this day right much at all over the years. Last season they got an extra night before shitting it against the Canucks in Vancouver. The year before that that they were nowhere against the Jets, and the year before that they laid an egg against Carolina. So just because the Wild are in the air as we speak doesn’t guarantee much.
Let’s start with the Hawks. Collin Delia looks to be getting the start, which should be the case until there’s a back-to-back (weekend after next) or Corey Crawford comes back. Cam Ward showed his true Cam Ward colors on Sunday, or should I say is true technicolor yawn, basically gifting the Panthers a couple goals and ruining what was a decent enough start from the Hawks. While he played well in a couple wins before the break, he still has a terminal case of being Cam Ward and we all know exactly what he is. Delia at least comes shrouded in mystery and some hope, and right now that’s good enough for the Hawks.
Other lineup changes see John Hayden slot in for Chris Kunitz, who sadly wasn’t banished to a sawmill in the country during the break. Dylan Sikura is dropping to the fourth line, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but I guess Brendan Perlini has played well enough for a promotion? Whatever. I don’t think it matters at this point.
To the Wild, who are only five points ahead of the Hawks but have played four games less. They have been tumbling down the standings like Martin Sheen off a roof for the past few weeks now. First it was Devan Dubnyk having a month-long sneeze in November, and while that’s corrected their scoring has gone completely agoraphobic and they can’t get anywhere near the opening between the posts. Since the middle of last month the Wild are shooting just 6.4%, fifth-worst in the league. Which betrays their metrics, as just like last year they create far more good chances than they let up even if the attempts are more or less evenly distributed. But that doesn’t really matter if you can’t bury them, and if your goalie goes through a streak where he can’t stop them.
Further dampening the Wild attack is that Matthew Dumba is basically done for the year, out three months with a pectoral problem that required surgery. He was one half of all their push from the blue line, with Jared Spurgeon the other (it’s not really what Ryan Suter does anymore). This has forced both Nate Prosser and Greg Pateryn into the lineup, which is a place you want to be in less than a bus station at 3AM. Without Dumba, you can expect the Wild’s metrics to go down.
Up front they’re juggling things again, with Charlie Coyle doing his regularly scheduled shift from wing to center where he can flatter to deceive there as well. Jordan Greenway has got himself punted to a wing where he can watch Mikko Koivu wheeze and belch as Father Time leaves another counting the lights. Zach Parise was hot there for a minute but has cooled off, and Mikael Granlund couldn’t hit an elephant from five feet at the moment. The lack of a true front-line scorer is once again biting the Wild in the ass, just as it has for the past…well, existence.
I guess in the Hawks’ mind, not yours or mine, if they’re going to push anything out of this season they have to start now. The schedule is pretty light from now until their bye in January, with only one back-to-back and three-in-four stretch with two of those at home. We’ll see what they make of it, which won’t be much.
Game #40 Preview Suite
Notes: The big story with the Wild is that Matt Dumba is going to be out for basically the rest of the season. Outside shot he could be back at the end of March, but without him they lose a ton of their get-up-and-go from the back. It’s basically Spurgeon now…they’ve moved Coyle back to center, which means six more weeks of winter…Koivu has been demoted, so you can see how his season is going…Dubnyk was awful in November but seems to have rebounded the past few weeks…Granlund hasn’t scored since November 29th…Parise was on fire a couple weeks back, with 13 points in 14 games, but hasn’t scratched in his last four at all…
Notes: Not much change here. Not sure why Sikura gets the demotion when he and Top Cat seemed to have struck up an understanding and it’s unclear what you want out of him on a fourth line. Look for this to last a period…Gustafsson is so unpredictable that he’s basically forced Keith to iron out and pull back his game a bit, which is fine with us…why is Forsling starting so often in his zone?…Delia looks to get the start after Ward’s tour-de-stupid on Sunday. If he plays well, he should keep rolling until he proves he can’t anymore, and that includes South Bend…
Game #40 Preview Suite
Notes: Couple big misses for the Panthers as both Bjugstad and Trocheck are out…this was the lineup yesterday afternoon in Detroit, but Alex Petrovic could slot back in on defense…the top line is on fire, as Huberdeau has 16 points in his last 10 games and Barkov 13…Hoffman only has four in his last 12 games…Reimer has given up 10 goals in his last two starts…
Notes: Ward is going to start, even though Delia should…unlikely to see any changes with the Hawks on an actual winning-streak…expect to see Nilsson slot in where SuckBag was and where Kruger would normally go. Only other option is to slot Anisimov back to center and slide Kampf down, but that third line has been too effective to break up…
Game #39 Preview Suite
Back when the Hawks played games that mattered, or back when they all mattered, I used to take unique joy in games they simply gutted out. There weren’t that many, after all, the Hawks mostly won on talent and structure back then. But every so often, in a stretch of seven games in 11 days or back-to-backs or both or whatever it was, the Hawks would simply win a game because they decided they were going to. It was as if their will was just stronger than most other teams’. They could be sloppy, they could be tired, they could be hanging on by their nails, but they would almost always find a way.
So it was nice to visit that again, even if it doesn’t signify much.
The Hawks were not good tonight. Or maybe more accurately, they were very far from sharp and most likely exhausted. It was their seventh game in 11 days, and they were playing at altitude against a rested Avalanche team that’s at least got the most devastating line in hockey. No, it wasn’t art. But hey, it got there. And they got a goalie win out of a kid they may want to count on pretty heavily in the not-too-distant future.
Does it mean anything? Well, I don’t think it means nothing. When the Hawks spent 10-15 games or whatever giving up the first goal, or the first three, the fear or thought was that this team wasn’t giving its coach the time of day. That he was merely drawing up things and talking to players who weren’t interested or listening. Well, the Hawks had every reason to toss this one in the rubbish when they showed up, and a lot of teams would have. They didn’t, and though it wasn’t artful or close to it, they gave a shit. That’s at least a start.
Let’s to it…
The Two Obs
-Have to start with Collin Delia. He was the only reason the Hawks got a point, much less two. When Delia sees the play and the puck, he looks far smoother than he did in a cameo last year. He looks in control. The problem, and what he’ll have to work on, is tracking the puck. It felt like he had a hard time at points following the puck through bodies and legs at times, and on another night a team would have picked the open nets he was leaving. That could be nerves. That could be the frantic nature of the game. It’s just one game.
He should absolutely get the start Sunday. As we’ve said earlier, the Hawks have something of a free hit to get a look at a goalie they might just think is their one of the future. There’s no reason to not think that, given what he’s done at the AHL. He’s earned the right to at least get a look at this level. Give him Sunday’s start. If he plays well, give him the 27th. And keep giving them to him until he takes the role or shows that he needs more seasoning. There’s nothing to lose here, and Cam Ward has been around long enough to know the deal.
-The metrics are fucking ugly, but the one that sticks out is the third line. Kampf, Sikura, and Top Cat got high marks. Top Cat is not a third line player, as we’ve gone over at length, but this line is ticking. We wrote off Sikura after a few games last year and not making the team out camp, mostly because we’re assholes. But this looks to be where he’ll be best used. A middle-six winger who isn’t asked much but can take advantage of some sweetheart matchups. He’s been unlucky to not score yet, and I’d wager when he gets one he’ll get a few. There are some hands there.
-The power play didn’t score, but it still looks far more lively with Gustafsson running things. It comes from various angles, it doesn’t have Kane simply Carmelo-ing the puck, and tonight they even tried the high tip from Toews in the middle. What a world.
-The PK gets some stripes tonight, going five-for-five against a team with that kind of weaponry. It did it basically on scrambling on guts, but that’s enough.
-While Gustafsson flashes in the offensive zone to make you think that as a third-pairing bum-slayer on a team that’s worth a fuck he could outscore whatever his defensive problems are, Gustav Forsling simply sucks deep pond scum. He hardly ever flashes anything offensively, and that means you can’t justify how woeful he is in his own zone. For the Avs lone goal, he checked the wrong guy into the boards, and then stood behind the net and simply watched Kerfoot pass to the slot for Compher where he should have been standing.
Sure, give him the rest of the year to prove he can be anything, but I’ll tell you what I’m betting you’ll find out.
Onwards…
