Everything Else

I wish that I could at least tell you that the number of goals meant this was an exciting game—that it was a high-flying game reminiscent of the halcyon days between these two teams that really wasn’t all that long ago. But I can’t tell you that. This was a shitty game played by two shitty teams. The score was as high as it was because both teams have awful defenses and goalies who are a shadow of who they once were (it hurts, it’s not necessarily true every night but today it was).

The Hawks did their best to give the game away by squandering any and every opportunity, and the Kings had a mixture of bad luck and incompetence to keep things ugly, but they managed to look like they actually cared about winning this one. Let’s do the bullets…

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks did that thing where they have a downright terrible start and have to play from behind. It’s been a little while since the busted out their now-classic down-by-two-goals-less-than-five-minutes-in shtick, but we got to see it here today. Two dumbass penalties right away—one being by Dylan Strome which kills me because you know I love that guy and here he goes and has a stupid trip—and the otherwise-useless Dustin Brown and Sean Walker both scored. The third goal by Ilya Kovalchuk was the first one of the day that Crawford really should have had (it would not be the last). Seabrook’s ass saving a goal and Brandon Perlini’s goal at the end of the first were the only things that kept it mildly close. And this is despite the Hawks leading in possession (58 CF% all situations) and leading in shots (15-11). Hockey is weird and sometimes numbers don’t tell the whole story.

–Wow, was the defense bad today. I mean, we all know they’re bad, but let me share with you some actual things that happened: Slater Koekkoek got burned by Dustin Brown and then screened Corey Crawford, directly helping both of the Kings’ first goals. Keith and Seabrook did a “you get it, no YOU get it” routine as they both literally watched the puck slide between them in the defensive zone. Gustav Forsling was looking to move the puck out of the defensive zone and had a wide open neutral zone, save one body in his field of vision—he managed to doink the puck off that one body leading to a turnover. Forsling later got swatted aside by Anze Kopitar which led immediately to the Kings’ fifth goal, which was the dagger in the game.

Oh yeah, and Nachos’s ass blocked literally half the net and saved a goal in the first period which, despite all the guffawing from Pat and Eddie, was actually terrible because it never should have happened. Seabrook’s ass was facing the shot because he had fallen down and was half in the net facing away from the play, and Keith got smoked by Trevor Lewis who sailed right in and had the scoring chance. Again, numbers don’t tell today’s story. Every Hawks defenseman was well above water in possession but they came nowhere near passing the eye test.

–Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling were particularly egregious. In addition to the two fuck-ups that basically assisted on the first two Kings goals, our current favorite punching bag Koekkoek waved his stick inconsequentially in a passing lane doing absolutely nothing to prevent Kempe from scoring, after Jonathan Toews simply gave up. That goal was on Toews as well, no doubt, but Koekkoek was all-around terrible except for his one assist, which was really thanks to Strome (more on that later). Forsling’s dire performance behind the net on Brendan Leipsic‘s goal was painful to watch.

—Crawford wasn’t very good today, we have to just say it. One would think that if they weren’t playing an actual good team tomorrow night, CCYP may have pulled him after the third goal in the first period. Maybe not, because that wouldn’t have helped his confidence in any way, I would think. But regardless, his .760 SV% wasn’t even mediocre; it was wretched when you consider the opposition and the fact that the Hawks only gave up 25 shots.

–A small bright spot: Dylan Strome is still generally good, dumbass penalty notwithstanding. On Perlini’s first goal, Strome “hustled” to save icing (I use quotation marks because it was the slowest, most awkward hustling I’ve ever seen, but whatever I can barely even skate), and patiently held onto the puck below the goal line until Koekkoek got off the bench and into the zone, who then passed it to Perlini. Strome was by no means perfect, but hey I gotta find something, right?

–Brendon Perlini had two goals…had to be the best game of his life and it was totally wasted and useless.

Dylan Sikura had a nice scoring chance midway through the third that Quick stopped and I’m starting to believe he will never score in a Hawks sweater. Cue the Beavis and Butthead reference.

OK, I’m exhausted from this game. From watching it, from writing about it, everything, I just really need a stiff drink. The Hawks just got beat by the worst team in the conference with a 10-game losing streak. They lost despite not giving up 40+ shots, as is their wont, and despite having significantly better possession the entire game. Despite all logic and references to this as a “must-win,” and now it’s on to a game against the league’s elite. Eat Arby’s.

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

It will be impossible, and it should be. to unlink the careers of Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews. Kopitar came into the league one year earlier, and is one year older, but both were among the best two-way centers in the game. Both anchored two of the pillar teams in the NHL for the decade, and of course there were the two playoff series between the two for Western Conference dominance. Both have similar type games, not exactly excelling in one area but showing just below excellence in pretty much every facet. If either were excellent at anything, it was in their own end and their control of play, setting the stage for perhaps more talented teammates to do their thing.

Both had dips in their careers at the same point. Both signed huge contracts that now their fanbases bemoan and outsiders mock. And both are probably now being improperly viewed by their own teams.

Last year, at this exact point in fact (the Hawks visited the Staples Center in Game #65 last year as well), we showed the differences between Toews and Kopitar at that point. Kopitar was having a bounce-back year, which would end with his first Selke Trophy, and Toews was in the midst of something of a nightmare that had some questioning his place within the team’s future. We concluded that really, there wasn’t much difference between the two and that Kopitar was seeing the opposite side of that fickle coin known as “luck,” while Toews was still getting an unwanted view of its less generous side.

Now, the tables have turned, and they haven’t. Toews and Kopitar continue to dovetail with each other, but both have flipped their perspective on that uncaring and yet vital coin.

Toews, in some ways, is having a career renaissance. Kopitar is in the middle of a perfectly functional season, with 47 points in 63 games, playing amongst true trash. Both have seen a decline in their defensive game, though that could probably be pinned partially on the ineptitude of those around them. That’s a stiff argument to construct though, as both are right around their team-rates for any metric you want to use. This after careers soaring above those rates. No man escapes time.

The difference this year, as it was last year, is one of them is just getting more pucks to go in than the other. Except this time it’s the one in red and not the one in black benefitting. It was Kopitar last year who saw his shooting-percentage rise to 17.5%, while Toews was hearing the NBA Jam guy screaming, “CAN’T BUY A BUCKET!” all season at 9.5%. This year Toews is at 16.6%, while Kopitar has sunk back to a certainly acceptable 14.8%.

Like Kopitar last year, Toews has seen a surge in power play points to cover some of his now not-dominant even-strength work, with 31 points already. Kopitar had 42 PP points last year, with just 13 this year. Toews had 12 last year. They can’t get away from each other.

But more to the point, Kopitar’s totals and rates are probably what a team could expect from him and Toews more than Toews’s production this year. Toews is unlikely to rack up this shooting-percentage again, as the chances and attempts he’s getting don’t really stand out from the previous years. And the power play is unlikely to sizzle like this again, or at least for this long.

And what that is is solid #2 center production. To expect Toews or Kopitar to keep providing #1 production into their 30s is not quite pie-in-the-sky stuff, but it’s not far either. Only one center seems to be managing that and that’s Sidney Crosby, who is made of something else. The Hawks seem to be trying to make up for that with a cheaper option in Dylan Strome. The Kings very well may have Jack Hughes to take that responsibility. But both should recognize what they have, not what they wish to have.

The problem for the Hawks is that Strome will only be cheap for one more season, and is still a longshot to be much more than a high-end #2 if everything works out. The Kings might lose out in the lottery, and then what? With the way the league is shaping up going forward, teams will need a center capable of 85-90 points or more. Toews and Kopitar have spiked that recently, but you wouldn’t bet on them doing so again. So how do you find that when those two are taking that kind of money down? Whichever answers first are probably better set up to get back to where they once belonged.

 

Game #65 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Note: We’re still crafting new worksheets from different sites thanks to Corsica’s shutdown, so we’re just going to give you the raw data today and we’ll have the charts back soon.

Goals

Hawks – GF/60: 2.74  GA/60: 3.12  GF%: 46.7

Kings – GF/60: 2.07   GA/60: 2.35  GF%: 46.8

Corsi

Hawks – CF/60: 55.3   CA/60: 59.8   CF%: 48

Kings – CF/60: 52.4   CA/60: 57.5   CF%: 47.6

Expected Goals

Hawks – xGF/60: 2.26   xGA/60: 2.91  xGF%: 43.9

Kings – xGF/60: 2.16   xGA/60: 2.36   xGF%: 47.7

Special Teams

Hawks – PP: 22.4% (8th)  PK: 73.4% (Last)
Kings – PP: 14.9 % (27th)  PK: 74.4% (30th)

 

 

 

Game #65 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Notes: With Caggiula’s injury, Saad slides up to form a super-unit, such as it is. Yeah, the bottom six is gross now, but it won’t matter against the Kings. Or at least it shouldn’t. Kampf will sort that out when he returns. Whatever, let’s see it…Wars probably goes this afternoon to save Crawford for the firing squad that will be the Sharks tomorrow night…Perlini and Sikura actually looked good together earlier in the season. It’s a lot of speed on the wings, though Arty will have to catch up…

Notes: The Kings are doing something of a reshuffle with their forwards, so we have no idea what it’ll look like. We’re not sure we care. We know it doesn’t matter…Phaneuf has been awful of late, which won’t come as much of a surprise to you…Quick has given up 16 goals in his last three appearances…Doughty has one goal in 2019…

 

Game #65 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 26-28-9   Ducks 24-30-9

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN

MICKEY’S BUDDIES: Anaheim Calling

You can probably imagine the execs at NBCSN wishing they had flex scheduling tonight. Or maybe they wish they didn’t have to put up with the NHL at all. Either way, a Hawks-Ducks matchup on your flagship night is sure to result in some shaking heads and sighs around the offices and truck and a declaration of, “Let’s just get through this”. But hey, this is our duty, and we’ll stick to it.

If you want to be relieved in finally getting to watch a team that’s a bigger mess than the Hawks, well you’re in luck the next two dates on the Hawks’ calendar. The Ducks have become perhaps the league’s leading calamity, and if they’re not it’s up the I-5 for the Hawks on Saturday afternoon. There was a time when Anaheim was floating around the playoff spots, though that was solely due to John Gibson and his Vezina-worthy form at the time. Then that dropped off, then he got hurt, and all that was left was Randy Carlyle‘s bashing-two-rocks-together system and ways, which was getting the Ducks pummeled every night to begin with.

They went 12 in a row without a win. Then they piled on seven regulation losses in a row soon after that. They’ve lost three in a row heading into this one, scoring two goals in the process. All told, since the middle of December this team is 5-19-4. That’s how you go for broke in the lottery, peeps. Whatever I might think of Jeremy Colliton, I can confidently say he’s no Randy Carlyle.

In a move his mentor Bob Pulford would undoubtedly nod in approval over, before falling over into a puddle of his own puke, Bob Murray finally shitcanned RANDY and inserted himself behind the bench. Perhaps he wanted a better look at the refuse he’s taped together, or perhaps whatever dignity he has left wouldn’t allow him to subject any other poor soul to this. It hasn’t much helped, as you might be able to tell.

The Ducks are somehow worse than the Hawks defensively and metrically, and basically have been all season. Carlyle’s tactics didn’t help, which seemed to harken back to 2007, the only time he knows. That and helmets actually cause concussions. This guy had an NHL coaching job, people.

Not only are the Ducks irretrievably bad and expensive, they’re now banged up. Ryan Getzlaf, John Gibson, and Ryan Miller could all miss out tonight. Ondrej Kase definitely will. This roster is basically bong residue. Ryan Kesler is dead and has also stopped caring, which is a real shock. Corey Perry returned from surgery 12 games ago and is a fourth-liner making $8 million. Hampus! Hampus! has lost the will to live, and Cam Fowler‘s injury history has finally caught up to him and now he’s terrible.

If there’s any hope for the Ducks, it’s that some of their kids are up and are probably going to get a look. Names like Sam Steel, Troy Terry, Max Jones, and Brendan Guhle are going to be carrying whatever the Ducks are going forward, so that at least gives their 12 fans something to watch. But this is a whole lot of ugly right now, which is perfect for this part of Orange County. If you’ve been there, you know.

For the Hawks, their playoff “chase,” such as it was, probably came to an end with the o-for-2 at home on the weekend. However, with the Ducks and Kings on the schedule they have a chance to at least get back where they were, and maybe you spring a surprise on the Sharks on Sunday night (no, you don’t). If the Hawks don’t collect all four points from the first two-thirds of this trip, they’re officially cooked and we can get on with our lives.

It’s unlikely that Corey Crawford will get the start, though he’ll get one on the weekend. Then again, you can’t ask for a softer landing than this. This should be a glorified practice against a team now running out the clock, but nothing is ever that simple for an outfit like the Hawks. This one’s for the diehards only, and the true creatures of the night.

See you there.

 

Game #64 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

After a disastrous weekend that, if it didn’t turn the Hawks’ playoff chase to cinders, certainly threw it on the fire. So you’ll be forgiven if your eyes turn to next year and beyond, which is really what this season has been about all along. Except the Hawks didn’t have anyone to develop for next year, unless you count Henri Jokiharju, who isn’t here. Nor do Drake Caggiula or Dominik Kahun count. So basically it’s Dylan Strome and that’s it.

But in looking toward next season, you can dream about how the blue line will change. How it has to change, even if the Hawks’ front office doesn’t see it, or believes they have enough time to wait for their four kids who’ll never fit on the roster together anyway. If your scout’s hat is on, we get it.

There is only one name on the free agent pool that will change anything, and that’s Erik Karlsson. And he will be as expensive as possible, and may not be interested in coming to a team that is definitely in flux, at best. Maybe all it takes is money, but the Hawks seem unlikely to flash that kind of wad even if EK65 was batting his ever so lovely lashes at them. And the rest of the free agent pool blows when it comes to d-men.

So that means trade. Or trades. Jacob Trouba will be available for a price, but he’s spent the season proving he might not quite be worth the ransom the Jets would ask, and that’s before the intra-divisional tax. Cody Ceci is another who’ll be RFA, but he’s…well, he’s got a terminal case of being Cody Ceci. The Hawks have inquired before, but they have to aim higher.

We present Hampus Lindholm.

Hampus! Hampus!’s numbers won’t leap off the page at you. 34 points is his career-high. 13 goals is another. But you have to look deeper than that.

Lindholm’s defensive responsibilities have grown and grown as he’s gone along, with a dwindling number of shifts starting in the defensive zone. That hasn’t stopped him topping the team-rate in Corsi, scoring chances, and until this season, high-danger chances. And keep in mind the last three seasons he’s been playing for the dumbest coach in the world. It’s hard to judge anyone under that. When he had a coach that played at least an up-tempo style in Bruce Boudreau, he simply kicked around what was in front of him, including carrying a 57% share in ’14-’15. He is one of the more underrated d-men in the league.

And he’s done it with a couple partners, so he’s not a product of getting to play with someone special and just coattail-riding. He’s mostly been with Josh Manson, but also Brandon Montour and some Cam Fowler, and he’s always lifted them up. He is what the Hawks are looking for, especially as they need someone who can lift a player or two up.

So, why would the Ducks trade a 25-year-old d-man who does all these things? Especially one signed for three more seasons at an incredibly reasonable $5.2M hit? Because A) they’re the Ducks and they’re stupid and B) because they’re going to have to jump-start a rebuild with something. Their forwards are just going to be salary-clearing, which won’t net much in return. They just re-signed Jakob Silfverberg for some unknown reason, which might have gotten them something tangible in return.

They have to cash in on a chip somewhere. Offer them Boqvist, because the idealized version of Boqvist is probably Lindholm anyway. Offer them Boqvist and Beaudin, fuck. There’s not enough room for everyone, and you can make do with Jokiharju and Mitchell. Or offer them Jokiharju, who’s development you might have already fucked but other teams don’t know that yet. You need a splash, and Hampus! Hampus! is it.

The Hawks are going to have to get creative. Here’s a start.

Game #64 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Note: Corsica is shut down, so we don’t have xGF% stats. We’ll have it replaced by the weekend. Sorry for the missing info and thanks for your patience. 

Notes: Crawford may start tonight, but with the two off-days before the back-to-back on the weekend, you’d imagine they’ll get him one or more practices before tossing him out there. But then again, there’s no softer landing for a returning goalie than the Ducks here…Gustav Forsling should be shot into the sun for his turnover Sunday, but he might crowbar in over Koekkoek, who also sucked this weekend. Everyone sucks…Sikura gets his first goal on this trip somewhere, we’re calling it…At least there will be a nice contrast between Kesler and Toews. Kesler is only two years older, which is uproarious…

Notes: Take this with a grain of salt. The Ducks lineup could look like anything. Prized kids like Sam Steel and Troy Terry are up, so you’d think they’ll get in here somewhere. Miller didn’t play on Monday and no one seems to know why, so he might not even start. We do know there are several absences, but only Kase is out for sure. Getzlaf could play, so could Miller, so could even John Gibson. The rest of this is trash…

 

Game #64 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

vs.

RECORDS: Stars 30-25-5   Hawks 26-27-9

PUCK DROP: 2pm

TV: WGN

FROM A DC-9 AT NIGHT: Defending Big D

It’s such a weird year. The Hawks lost the opening half of their showcase weekend, and yet that’s probably the best game they’ve played since…man, it’s hard to say. There have been periods here and there but overall, you could argue it was New Year’s Day. And they lost that one, too. But they don’t base the standings on aesthetics and who played better. All that matters is what you got out of it. The Hawks got nothing but a handful of themselves, which means they’d better get something out of this one if they’re serious about chasing until the end of the year.

From the Hawks’ perspective, they’ll get a couple of returnees. Brent Seabrook looks likely to return from his “abdominal” problem (and this is where we snigger about any trainer being able to find his abdominals), and Carl Dahlstrom should be over his case of the plague. Marcus Kruger also should be available after missing the third period on Friday. The first two mean that Henri Jokiharju will return to Rockford, and that’s a whole other discussion we’ll have soon at a podcast near you. So the defense will look like you’ve become accustomed to, and any change in the forwards is Perlini coming in for either Kunitz or Hayden or possibly Sikura, but that would be unfair to the kid.

Right, the Stars. Like any team stuck in this goo around the wildcards, this is not how they pictured their beautiful house. They’ve lost five of seven, and all of those without Ben Bishop who has been hurt. But he returned yesterday against the Canes, which means the Hawks will get Anton Khudobin today. Khudobin has been an excellent back-up this season, but having to take the main role broke his reserves, and he’s surrendered 14 goals in his last four appearances. Perhaps getting the break with Bishop back is all he needs to throw 35+ saves at the Hawks today, but let’s hope not.

The Stars are kind of like the Wild, in that they surrender more of the opportunities than they get but as you rate the chances better and better so do their numbers. So they create better chances than their opponents, and are happy to let them let fly from the hinterlands. Their problem of late as been they’ve been the anti-Motley Crue, they can’t get their heart kickstarted. They have a league-low 26 goals in the 1st period, and of late their stout defense has leaked first, which has them playing catch-up every game. As they were just playing some 20 hours ago or so, the Hawks would be wise to try and jump on them from the word go and see just how much they have in the tank to catch up again.

As always with the Stars, despite the bleating from their CEO, they’ll go as far offensively as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn can carry them. They’re on different lines at the moment, but no one else on this team is scoring. The Stars simply haven’t gotten enough from anyone else you look at other than John Klingberg, who was hurt for a chunk. Further complicating matters for Gang Green is that Alex Radulov was sick yesterday and missed out, and his status for today is up in the air. Without him, there is a whole lot of not much here.

It’s not that the Hawks would be charred if they don’t get a regulation win here, but the coals would be certainly heating up. But if they do get the win, the Ducks and Kings are lined up next, and that’s four points they’re begging you to take. You’re also getting a team on the second of a back-to-back that had to travel, while the Hawks were simply waiting around. Quite simply, this is a game you have to have. So go get it.

 

Game #63 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built