Everything Else

Hawks Hire Blithering Idiot As Assistant Coach

By Sam Fels 2826 0

We knew the Hawks wanted to get a veteran behind the bench along with Jeremy Colliton, to provide something of a sounding-board or sort of Obi Wan character for their young padawan of a head coach. That’s why whatever life form Barry Smith was around for a while, fielding questions from Eddie and Pat as all three plotted to kill each other. For comedy’s sake, it was utter gold. Anyway, since Smith left and whichever Granato they had that didn’t play in the NHL moved on to wherever Granatos go, the Hawks have had a vacancy for an assistant.

They filled it with Marc Crawford…which…is…a move. Crawford was an assistant for Guy Boucher the past couple seasons, Boucher himself another fancied young genius who couldn’t actually manage a piss-up in a brewery unless his goalie in tossing a .935 at the world. Crawford took over for Boucher when the latter got shitcanned, and did about as well as one could with that Senators team at the end of a lost season with a 7-10-1 record.

Crawford certainly has been around a long time. But like a lot of ghouls and spirits that hang around NHL benches and front offices, one has to ask why. Yes, he won that Cup in 1996 with the Avalanche. Look at that fucking roster. As McClure if often fond of saying, “A cold glass of orange juice probably gets it to a conference final at worst.”

Since then, no Crawford team won a playoff series and his last four years as a coach saw his teams miss the playoffs altogether. In fact, his crowning achievement of the past 20 years really was that final-day puke-a-thon from the Stars that let the Hawks slip into the playoffs when he couldn’t hump that team past a dead-in-the-water Wild team. Can’t wait to hear the advice he has to impart on Colliton!

I guess, if I squint, right after he left the Canucks they had their best run, so may he helped lay down the tracks. And then the Kings became a perennial playoff team after he left, so maybe same thing. So hey great, the Hawks will be good after he leaves. Whenever that is.

The fear is that if Colliton becomes (or continues, depending on your point of view) a complete balls-up this season, then it’s going to be obvious who is replacement is. And you wonder how long before veteran players start looking that way. And if Crawford takes over, well then you’re proper fucked anyway.

But hey, he’s coached in the NHL before. That’s apparently all it took to get this job. Very excited. Really.

Everything Else

Let’s Trade For Taylor Hall Before Everyone Realizes This Is Bulls**t

By Sam Fels 2814 0

First thing to wake up to today:

Now, as most know, Taylor Hall has been a fascination of mine for a while, though that hardly makes me unique. And it would make sense that Hall might not want to sign an extension in New Jersey. If for no other reason, some players are just very curious to do the free agent tour, to see what all their options are, or hell, just to be courted by at least 2/3rds of the league and feel like the big dick. Fuck, why wouldn’t you? Oh right, injury or down performance or something. Still, if Hall were to go on the open market next summer, you could make the argument it would be an even bigger deal than when John Tavares did, because JT didn’t have a Hart on his resume.

Second, even with Jack Hughes coming to town, the Devils are at least two years from serious contention and possibly longer, and might not even be a playoff team next season. They were 26 points off the pace last season, have no defense to speak of really, and MacKenzie Blackwood may or may not be a goalie. You can see where Hall might not want to bet whatever’s left of his prime on that hunch.

Further ratcheting up the frenzy is that Hall’s cap number is just $6M this year, which is pretty manageable for anyone remotely desperate. Off the top of my head, teams around contention that would want and need Hall are the Penguins, Bruins, Panthers, Jackets, Canes, Flyers, Islanders, Stars, Blues, Predators, Flames, and I’m probably missing a few. Look, everyone needs Taylor Hall. Everyone could find a spot for him.

Oh, and New Jersey is just a shitty place to play. Let’s end the case there. It’s fucking New Jersey. I just want to pretend that Hall hates Springsteen as much as I do and has had enough. Let me have it.

Which brings us to the Hawks. There’s no question that they have a hole in the top six. Hall would actually be something of an odd fit in some ways. He’s not the prototypical left winger to maximize playing with Kane, because he also likes to have the puck and create his own space and shot. Not that the two of them couldn’t make it work, but he’s not the spot-up shooter than Top Cat is on the power play or Sharp was in his heyday or Panarin could turn into when need be. Which means you’d probably be better off playing Hall with Toews, except there’s no one really on the right side of that. Again, you could put Kane there and have an absolute doomsday of a top line with Toews doing more of the finding space thing, leaving Hall to create it, and then hammock Strome and Top Cat on the second line.

Both of these scenarios mean either flipping Saad to the right side, which he’s never really taken to, or moving him permanently to the third line, or involving him in this trade or another. Funny how Saad and Hall make the same amount of money, no?

You may think it doesn’t behoove the Hawks to go after what is essentially a rental, but I think it’s perfect. One, it keeps his trade value down. And this is the kind of player that you start the process of drafting Bowen Byram, and then packaging some combination of Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudein, Jokiharju (maybe with Saad or Anisimov) to improve your team now. Second, it gives you flexibility next year and evaluation time this year. Perhaps Kubalik, Kahun, or Kurashev really pop this season, along with another 40 goals from Top Cat, and you thank Hall for his services while you commit his money to other players you think you can step up. Maybe the cap takes a bigger leap up. I don’t know, who cares, fuck you.

Yes, I realize that Hall isn’t a defenseman. But his cap hit isn’t so destructive for one season that you can’t find an additional upgrade there as well, whether or not the Hawks draft Byram and whether or not he then skips right to the NHL. Remember, Crawford’s number comes off the books next year too, and you might jettison Saad’s and/or Anisimov’s in the next year as well. There is flexibility for Hall and oh I don’t know…a certain #65 together for a season.

You can actually do this without forfeiting your future. The #3 pick allows you that. Your director of amateur scouting just came out and said that they’ll never get all these defensive prospects on the roster, so you know you have to make a move or two anyway. Play your cards right, and you should still have at least two of your four kids already in the system on the blue line, Byram/Turcotte and whatever else you pick up this draft.

You want to get back in the headlines? You want to vault yourself back into contention in a division that appears like it’s only going to get worse? Then grow a pair and make this move before everyone realizes Pagnotta is actually just a glorified bullhorn.

Everything Else

I’m Not Sure I’m Ready For A Corey Crawford Farewell Tour

By Sam Fels 1880 0

This is probably not the time to discuss it, as there will be plenty of opportunity starting in training camp. And whether Corey Crawford is Vezina-level again, or can’t find it at all, as the season moves toward the expiration of his contract at its conclusion, that question is only going to get bigger. But we’re not doing anything at the moment, so let’s at least get it started.

What prompts this is Kevin Lankinen’s gold-medal winning performance at the World Championships. Now, a hot two weeks doesn’t a prospect make. Lankinen only had 19 games at Rockford last year, and he wasn’t particularly good. He even spent some time in Indy. Then again, the year before, Collin Delia spent some time in Indy, had a hot few weeks in the AHL playoffs, and he’s something of the Hawks main prospect in net now.

Backing this up is that generally, Stan and his front office have been pretty good at identifying young goalies. That’s how I’m going to get around the whole Cam Ward thing. Stan has cycled through Antti Niemi, Crawford himself (only sorta but he did get the starting job under Stan), Antti Raanta, and Scott Darling, who have all had at least reasonable NHL success at times. They did salvage Ray Emery. A bunch of others haven’t worked out, but the ones that get to Rockford tend to be something.

Whatever, the Hawks likely will enter camp with Lankinen and Delia to battle it out for the backup spot. And anyone in the backup spot to Crawford these days has to be trusted to take the wheel for a stretch or two at least. This is a spot where the Hawks can save some cash, because any viable, veteran backup might eat up two to three million that can be used elsewhere.

But the question that will come with whoever wins the job (and you can see where they’ll rotate between the backup and Rockford and both gets starts on the top roster) is whether or not they’ll be ready to take over the following season. Or whether they’ll get the chance.

Crow is entering his age-35 season. And you’re hard-pressed to find too many goalies who go beyond that. I don’t think it’s fair to compare anything to Tim Thomas, as that appears to be a strange, tin-foil hatted, bunker-filling anomaly that won’t happen again. He came out of nowhere, which isn’t the story with just about anyone else, especially Crawford. Pekka Rinne just finished his age-36 season, and it was pretty all right in a total .918 and more encouragingly, he closed strong in March and April. Roberto Luongo had solid seasons at 35, 36, and 38. Beyond that though to find really good seasons past 35, you’d be hard-pressed. Good seasons, yes. Mike Smith had one (that’s not a name that will make you feel better though), Ryan Miller had one, one or two other names.

On the flip side, Henrik Lundqvist, perhaps the best goalie of the generation and one that Crawford has, y’know, the same lifetime SV% as, started to go stale last year at 36. To be fair, he was behind a horrible Rangers team, and his actual save-percentage at evens was higher than his expected, so maybe he was just drowning thanks to his defense. We’ll see next year.

It’s not that I’m worried about Crawford turning bad in the next year or two. That’s purely tied to health, and as we saw in March last season that a healthy Crow still put up a .920 behind one of the worst defenses of the decade. Even that Crow is still going to leave the Hawks with a decision.

The scenario you easily see, given what you know about the Hawks’ operating history, is that Crow has a blistering October and November, and is handed a two- or three-year extension right then and there. We know the Hawks like to take care of their guys. We know they don’t like to let anyone important get into the last year of their deal at all. Only Crow’s health has allowed him to get this far into his contract without an extension, I’m sure.

In a vacuum, you’d let it all play out. You see how Crow plays, you see how the kids play, you decide next summer. But we know the Hawks don’t operate in a vacuum, and they’re utterly terrified of facing questions like this during the season. They never really have. Keith was locked up to prevent that ever happening. Toews and Kane were re-signed as soon as possible. Seabrook signed his deal before the last year of his previous contract ever started. Going back farther, Patrick Sharp was extended before getting close to free agency. Hjalmarsson was signed to his last extension before the last season of his previous contract started as well. The Hawks just don’t do this.

But none of them were 35, or going to be in-season. None of them had the health industry. None of them, pretty much, had the sometimes dicey relationship with the organization that Crow has had in the past.

As we’ve previously discussed, the Hawks will have some big checks to sign next summer to Alex DeBrincat and possibly Dylan Strome, with smaller but possibly not insignificant checks to go to Dominik Kahun or Dominik Kubalik (and possibly Erik Gustafsson if they want to make a huge mistake). Savings have to come from somewhere.

I’m just not ready for any of this.

 

Everything Else

From This Seat, It’s The Bruins You Should Look To

By Sam Fels 1744 0

Let’s make it clear up front: There’s nothing you should look to St. Louis for other than to make sure it’s in your rearview mirror. You can’t learn anything from sludge and drool, obviously. While I was one of many wishing the Hawks had shown the Blues’ urgency last summer, that doesn’t mean what the Blues are doing is necessarily a stable model. A hot four months with a goalie from nowhere doesn’t exactly project to sustained success and contending for baubles in the years to come. Especially with a blue line that’s getting older and couldn’t move in the first place. So it’s pieces like this from friend of the program Scott Powers that make be urpy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t things in there that are true, but the Hawks could learn a lot more from the Bruins, and that’s because they come from a much similar place. In fact, they almost come from the same one.

Cast your mind back to 2013, though it seems a lifetime ago now. It’s easy to forget just how much those two teams were alike and how much they shared the same platform. At that point, the Bruins were in their second Final in three years, the Hawks their second in four. Both had one championship. And considering how close that series was (it was inches away from a Game 7, it was inches away from a Bruins sweep, it was inches away from the Hawks winning in five, it basically could not have been any closer), they both came out of it a few sheets of paper’s distance away from each other.

And looking back and now, you could argue the same amount and quality of personnel threads each team from that time to today. Bergeron, Marchand, Chara, Rask don’t really look all  that different than Toews, Kane, Keith, and Crawford. There are margins, but the total wouldn’t be too much different. Add in Pastrnak for Boston, but we could add in DeBrincat for the Hawks and we’re still kind of the same.

So how did each get here exactly?

You know the Hawks went onto another conference Final and a Cup after that (agonizingly close to two Cups), but what you might have forgotten is that the Bruins were the Presidents’ Trophy winners in ’13-’14 and there were a good portion of people who thought we were headed for a Final rematch. The Bruins ran into Carey Price in Round 2, and also lost their minds, but that doesn’t detract from the fact they were one of, if not the, best team in the league that year. Between the two seasons the Bruins moved along Tyler Seguin, but for one season at least they had Jarome Iginla scoring 30 goals and Reilly Smith chipping in 20 to shield the idiocy of that trade. Torey Krug joined the blue line, and basically it was the ’13 team after that.

The Bs “collapse,” as it were, started the next season, while the Hawks were adding #3. And it was maybe for reasons you might recognize. Quite simply, Bergeron and Marchand didn’t score, combining for 97 points (a total Marchand passed himself this year and nearly did the previous two seasons). Trades the Bs had made started to not work out in delay, as Loui Eriksson was finished, the goals dried up for Smith. The defensive depth started to erode, as Boychuk was moved along for cap reasons and Seidenberg got old in a hurry. Some kids like Spooner and Pastrnak, in his rookie year, were not up to making up the difference yet. They would miss the playoffs.

And they would do so again the next season. Bergeron and Marchand were better, but not good enough. Dougie Hamilton was traded for literally nothing. Chara began to show his age, and the defensive depth behind him and Krug was simply nothing. There were no forwards beyond the top line. Rask was only ok.

The seeds were planted for what the Bruins are now the next year, when they racked up 95 points and returned to the playoffs, though they lost to that woeful Senators team being dragged by the dick by Erik Karlsson. But Pastrnak exploded onto the scene in his third year. Brandon Carlo made his debut. Charlie McAvoy debuted in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean there weren’t missteps in free agency or offseason, as I point to Backes, Beleskey, and Jimmy Hayes. But the roots were growing.

Over the past two seasons, the Bruins have brought in DeBrusk, Grzelcyk, and others that they turned into Coyle or Johansson or whoever else.

Now which looks more similar to the Hawks? The Bruins or Blues? Pretty obvious, no? The Bruins had an entrenched core that underperformed in some years (and if you don’t think Bergeron heard some of the same things that Toews did during his down years here then you’ve clearly never been to or read anything written out of Boston), but they held onto and filled in behind. They had a Hall of Fame d-man who could no longer dominate games, but the difference is that he eventually accepted his limited skills and role and let others take the bigger responsibilities. The Hawks haven’t gotten there yet.

And in essence, the Hawks are already in this process, it’s just that they started later than the Bruins did (as they should have) and their stars are going to be older when it’s all done. But the Hawks are loading up on mobile, skilled d-men with the hopes of relieving Keith of his duties in the next two years. All of whom are mobile and able to play with the puck, just as McAvoy, Krug, Carlo, and Grzelcyk can. There is already hope that they have some forwards to take secondary roles behind the main trio, if that trio can hold on for a few more years (also, Toews, Kane, and Top Cat are exactly the same age as Pastrnak, Marchand, and Bergeron combined).

The Bruins were in the wilderness for two to three years, depending on how you categorize that first-round exit. The Hawks definitely have been for two, and possibly three depending on how fluky you think that division winning team that got flattened in the first round was. While they thrashed about in some areas and definitely made their mistakes, eventually the Bruins waited around long enough to fill in behind their legends through their own system. The Hawks are now farther behind than the Bruins were, because they have pretty much nothing on defense at the top level. But they’re also on the same path.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying To Kill Me And The Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-’19 Player Reviews: Jeremy Colliton

By Sam Fels 1655 0

In truth, the whole season, or at least the last 67 games of it, was referendum on Coach Cool Youth Pastor. The Hawks kind of telegraphed their intentions with their quotes and moves last summer and at the end of the season before that. You knew from the moment they brought him over from Sweden this was a guy they really liked, even if Chris Block made him cry. You knew the relationship between Joel Quenneville and Stan Bowman had gone beyond the breaking point, and everything pointed to Colliton being their hand-chose replacement. The Hawks backed themselves into a corner of having to hire him, when it was clear that Quenneville was never going to finish the season unless by some miracle. Colliton almost certainly wasn’t ready for this, but the front office isn’t going to be around for another coaching hire. At least you wouldn’t think. So it was a shotgun wedding. Did we learn anything? I’m not sure. But we had a lot of fun along the way, and in the end, isn’t that the real truth? The answer is no.

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

The first thing that Colliton supporters will use to highlight their case, if these things actually exist, is the power play. Honestly, the power play was never a high priority for Q, as the Hawks won three Cups with a malfunctioning one either in the regular season or the playoffs or both. The PK and even-strength were given far bigger priority. So the Hawks’ power play languished, last in the league and by some distance. It was painful to watch, if not truly soul-destroying.

Look, there was clearly a lot of talent that was going to waste on it. But Colliton is the guy who got Duncan Keith off of it, trusted Erik Gustafsson to run it by himself, got it moving everywhere, and by the end of the season it finished 15th. That sounds disappointing, as it was flirting with the top-10 there for a hot minute, but when you think of where it came from, running at below 12% for awhile, to finish at 20% and to run at near 40% or above for six weeks or so is really an accomplishment. It went stale toward the end of the season when the Hawks really could have used it, but hopefully a more stable second unit and Patrick Kane not dying of exhaustion next year will curtail some of that. It was the only reason the Hawks go anywhere near a playoff spot.

To give Colliton only that would be a touch unfair. Connor Murphy played his best hockey when not being used as a blame-pawn by Q, and ascended to the toughest responsibilities. It was Murphy and Dahlstrom who closed out a fair few number of games at the end, with Keith and Seabrook on the bench. Similarly, Dylan Strome was provided an atmosphere to flourish, which you can’t guarantee would have happened under Quenneville (who was much more fair to young players than his rep suggested, however). Drake Caggiula looked useful, if not dynamic, though that could just be being freed from Edmonton. For the most part, not always, Colliton put players where they could succeed. If that meant Saad on the third line because that was his best fit, then that’s where he went. When it didn’t work, it could be argued it was because that player is just utterly talentless.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

You can’t go any farther without talking about the defense. It was the worst in the league, the worst in the analytic-era, and didn’t improve really at all. Was this all Colliton’s fault? No, because he was given about a defenseman and a half to work with. Jokiharju barely played for him, and when he did is when it was becoming clear he was overmatched. Still, there didn’t seem to be any sign of an upturn, and the excuse of not having a training camp ran thin after a while. He wasn’t installing Matt Nagy’s offense here. It’s hockey. If the Hawks were grooming a batch of youngsters to play the way they are going to when they matter again, you could maybe see it. But there really wasn’t. And there was no tweaking of anything to compensate for what the Hawks didn’t have, namely mobility in defense.

And Colliton’s system may be stupid anyway. It was infuriating seeing Murphy or Keith or Dahlstrom or whoever end up at the blue line in their own zone chasing one guy. Any team with any advance scouting knew that simply having a forward come high and a d-man go low would bamboozle the Hawks, and at worst leave a forward trying to defend down low with a d-man out covering the points and getting nosebleeds. It didn’t make a ton of sense. Even if the Hawks had the talent, we don’t know that this would work.

Colliton also suffered from not really acting like the boss. Brent Seabrook was never scratched, even though he was no more effective than Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, or Forsling. From what I can gather, that was merely because he and Colliton played together on a WJC team and the Hawks wanted the coach to have another veteran ally in the room. Especially as Keith couldn’t have made it any clearer he thought Colliton was a moron from day one. Kane was used for 25 minutes a night, and yes this was just about the only weapon the Hawks had, but it left him paste by the middle of March. It also showed no other plan.

The penalty kill was historically bad, and again, that was a matter of lack of talent, but there didn’t appear to be many changes to try and help it out. Teams could get passes through the box whenever they wanted. The Hawks never altered to either sink deeper or try and play with more pressure. They just kind of floated in the middle, which wasn’t working.

Also his wife doesn’t like us (though this is generally the norm among my friends and acquaintances).

Can I Go Now?

It doesn’t really matter, because Colliton will be here as long as Stan is, you would think. On any logical level, that’s what will happen. The rosy picture is to say that we’ll get a much clearer read on Colliton with an improvement in talent levels on defense. But it’s not clear that the Hawks will, or even can, do that. He’ll get his vaunted training camp to install the ideas that apparently have to be decoded by the Rosetta Stone, so that won’t be a crutch he and the team can wield any more.

Colliton is also going to have to win over the vets. Kane didn’t care or rock the boat because he was getting 25 minutes per night, and Toews is Toews and the captain and will always try and hold things together. You wonder how much longer any of these last if the Hawks don’t get off to a good start. How he gets Keith to play without both of his middle fingers extended is another mystery. Whatever the actual relationship between Colliton and Seabrook is, it probably has to be put under the test of Seabrook ending up in the pressbox some nights. You can’t improve this defense with #7 playing every night. At least it’s impossible to see how. If Crawford is finally fully healthy he’ll have a say as well. Can Colliton avoid a full out rebellion if some or all of this comes to fruition?

If Colliton’s strength is bringing along young players, we’ll have to see it more this year. Kubalik is coming over. Outside chance Kurashev is here. Sikura needs to go from threatening to actual usefulness and actual goals more to the point. Whatever d-man who is actually good, or even just ambulatory, needs to be harnessed. The penalty kill has to be something other than a war crime. And there have to be tweaks to a defensive system when called for.

It’s a lot. It was always a lot to deposit this coach with barely any experience in the middle of an organization that is thrashing wildly looking for any shore or bank. It was unfair. But there are far less excuses now. Stan has his guy, and he has to give him whatever they both decide they need for both to succeed. If Keith or Seabrook aren’t on board, then they have to go or it has to be clear that Colliton is the boss and they’d better get in line.

Good luck.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Jonathan Toews

Brandon Saad

Dominik Kahun

John Hayden

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Drake Caggiula

Dylan Sikura

Everything Else

Hawks Add Two Forwards You Probably Already Thought Were Added, Does Another Have To Go?

By Sam Fels 2096 0

It’s a morsel, but it’s something. Today, the Hawks announced the signing of Anton Wedin, which we’d already talked about before a few weeks ago. Wedin is something of a scratcher lottery ticket, as players who pop off for the first time at 26 and not gaudy numbers are hardly a sure thing to ever escape the AHL. But he costs nothing, the Hawks get a one-year look-see, and then they can decide if they want to continue this relationship.

There’s also been buzz that the Hawks have officially signed Dominik Kubalik, who is currently lighting up the World Championships for the Czech team, along with old friend Michael Frolik. Kubalik is the far more enticing and surer bet than Wedin. He’s 23, and though he kicked a hole in a lesser European league, that hole was really big in Switzerland. He has some experience on this side of the ocean, playing in juniors with one Dominik Kahun, and having two Dominiks with last names beginning with K surely won’t kill Pat Foley or anything.

The Hawks still have some work to do, as Perlini and Kampf haven’t been re-signed yet, though you’d expect the latter is no problem and the former is not someone the Hawks are going to give up on quite yet. And you start doing then numbers, and you begin to wonder here.

Kubalik is going to be a Hawk. It would be an upset if he spends anytime in Rockford, just as Kahun made an immediate splash. And while we generally would snicker that this is the Hawks trying to prop up one of their prospects again (John Hayden come on down…now keep going…no don’t stop…), their European finds generally have been useful. So let’s map it out, and pencil in Wedin for a 4th line role to start. He can be this year’s Suckbag Johnson in October.

Caggiula-Toews-Kane

Top Cat-Strome-Saad

Kahun-Kampf-Kubalik

Wedin-Anisimov-Perlini

No, this isn’t what Opening Night will look like, and if it does I highly suggest you find something else to do for the winter than bother with this. We have to, you don’t. This is just what it looks like right now, and that’s not even mentioning Sikura, Kurashev who is a possibility to come aboard, MacKenzie Entwistle being an outside shot, and I guess I still have mention Hayden here as he’s still signed for one more year (if he plays more than 10 games with the Hawks though I’m going to shove my whole fist down my throat).

What you see is a fair number of young, fast, nippy wingers (other than Entwistle), all of who are unknowns, all something of a lottery ticket, but the more you have and try the more chance that one or two will work. Sikura really should be in the NHL full-time next year, despite never scoring showed flashes of being a useful player. Kurashev flashed at the WJC, though I doubt the Hawks would be ready to try him at center just yet. So there’s something of a little jam.

Now you know what are stated aims are here. Flog Anisimov for whatever you can just as long as he’s gone, move Caggiula to your fourth-line center, sign an actual top six forward, and let’s dance. And maybe that is the plan, because you don’t feel like the Hawks are going to carry all of this into training camp. Though stranger things have happened.

While the Hawks talk about their cap space, it’s not that simple. No one who is currently a free agent is going to break them, as you wouldn’t think Perlini, Sikura, and Kampf are going to lop off more than what, $3M off? That’s $17M to play with.

But it’s the following summer that’s an issue. Let’s assume the cap takes another $4M jump as it did this one, and that’s a cap of $87M. The Hawks currently have $49M committed for 2020-2021, which is $28M in space. With whatever deals that above-mentioned trio sign, let’s call it $25M.

And more than a third of that, without any signings this summer, is going to be eaten up by Alex DeBrincat‘s next contract. Ain’t gonna be no bridge for him, and if he puts up another 35-40 goals, he’s going to point at Mitch Marner‘s deal and say, “THAT!” Certainly William Nylander‘s $6.9M number would merely be a jumping off point. And if Top Cat brings Strome right along with him during the season, that’s another $6-7M for Strome, and suddenly that $25M in space is now somewhere around $10M if you’re lucky. And then you have to wonder what Kahun and Caggiula get if they have good years. It won’t come close to eating up that $10M, but suddenly the space this summer to sign free agents looks a little tight when thinking about the next.

So yeah, punting Anisimov saves you $4.5M for two more years, and maybe that’s enough. The fear around this lab is that the Hawks might have a bigger number in savings in mind. You know where this is going.

You know how we feel about Brandon Saad. You can read Pullega’s review for a refresher. But you can make the argument. It’s $6M in savings. And you have to admit that Saad is something of an odd fit right now, though one who made it work for most of the season, including a dominating stretch from the middle to the spring. The Hawks are loathe to load him up with Toews and Kane, which you can understand. But Saad’s never taken to, or really been tried all that much, on the right side to play with Top Cat and Strome. Pairing him with Toews leaves the right side open, but you don’t really want to play DeBrincat there as he’s a bigger scoring threat on the left. The idea of Saad and Kane flanking Strome was tried, but then DeBrincat is playing with Toews and they need something on the right side that the Hawks don’t really have unless one of these kids pops. Saad made serious mileage out of a third line role, but the question the Hawks might be asking themselves is, “Could Kahun or Kubalik or Kurashev or all three do just as much there at a fraction of the cost?” Alternatively, could they try a combo of those kids in the top six and hope one or two of them can at least ride shotgun.

Saad’s value is clearly higher than Anisimov’s. While he has his faults, he’s still a nimble forward with size who gets you 20-25 goals and solid possession play. It’s not like those grow on trees. And considering how the defenseman market is Erik Karlsson and whatever state his bursting red crotch dots are in and then a whole bunch of trash, you could understand the hesitance (if you don’t necessarily agree with it, which we don’t).  So a trade might be necessary.

I don’t know what the names would be. Carolina was interested last year, but their different status might change that. We were asked about The Island yesterday on the podcast, with Leddy returning, which would be hilarious and also wrong. Saad’s always seemed like a perfect Predator, but he won’t be dealt in the division. There would be a market though.

I don’t want it, but you can see it.

Everything Else

Wait, They Get It? No, Surely Not No

By Sam Fels 1970 0

I guess at this point of the offseason, all we can really do is take the stuff Mark Lazerus and Scott Powers write, and others, and comment. We’re still three weeks away from anything interesting happening, and a month away from the draft when we’ll get some real answers. So here’s Lazerus’s piece from yesterday at The Athletic that’s essentially an interview with Marc Kelley, the Hawks director of amateur scouting. I sort of wonder if Kelley won’t be allowed to talk ever again.

The main debate we’ve had here about the Hawks #3 pick is whether or not they can add another d-man at that spot, and specifically Bowen Byram. He’s the only d-man mentioned in the discussions. Every other player around there is a forward. And the Hawks have sort of projected this idea that they already have too many d-men in the system and they’re all so precious and they just can’t figure out what to do. Which leads one to worry the Hawks will reach for a forward that won’t be worth that third pick, that won’t be here soon anyway, and whatever the Hawks do to improve for next year is going to have to be through trades and free agency. Or worse yet, they’re not all that concerned with improving next year.

Kelley seems to go against the grain on all that. First, there’s a comparison to Paul Coffey about Byram from Kelley, which isn’t a name you just toss around (though if Paul Coffey were a player today and was a Hawks, a large section of Hawks fans would hate him including the two in the booth. This is my fear/excitement about Karlsson. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED). But here’s a money quote for you:

“If you feel that a defenseman is going to project out to be that No. 1, then you go that route,” said Kelley, who was careful not to reveal his cards and say Byram was necessarily that guy. “With all these defensemen we’ve drafted, it’s not our plan that they’re all going to play for the Blackhawks. The defensemen we’ve taken have all held their value, or increased their value. That’s what you’re looking for.”

So there’s a couple things there. One, he’s basically saying that if the Hawks think that Byram is going to be a true foundational piece, then they’ll take him. Kelley recognizes you don’t get a shot at this very often, and if one comes around you don’t miss. They’re obviously not going to say what they’re going to do, just in case they scare some team behind them that HAS to have a guy into trading two top-liners for the Hawks pick or something ridiculous like that. I don’t know if Byram is that guy. A lot of scouting reports seem to suggest he is. You’ll never know for sure until he gets here, obviously.

Second, Kelley for the first time makes it clear that the Hawks know they’ll never get all of their prospects on the blue line onto the UC ice, and even seems to relish how adding Byram opens them up to trade possibly one or two more of them. If that’s the route they go. We can debate all day which d-man should go (Jokiharju), but while they’ve hinted at it before around the edges, this is clear that something will happen. And very well may happen this summer.

Which is fine. Jokiharju’s or Boqvist’s value are probably still high as they can be. Maybe the latter has to prove he won’t drown at the professional level, but we’ll get there. Still, I was encouraged by something someone in the front office said. When was the last time that happened? This is why he’ll be silenced forever I’m sure.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying To Kill Me And The Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-’19 Player Reviews: Patrick Kane

By Sam Fels 1758 0

Well this one’s easy. It’s rare that a player gets any sort of Hart Trophy buzz for a team that doesn’t even get all that close to a playoff spot. This year two of them did, and that’s Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane. Which tells you the strata Kane inhabits, and he’s doing it at over 30. 30 isn’t the cut off it used to be, of course, especially not for the truly elite in the league. Crosby, Bergeron, Marchand are all over 30 with Kane, Stamkos is 29 and you wouldn’t expect much of a drop-off there. Still, it’s clear all of them have more help than Kane did. Let’s go through it, though you pretty much know it all by now.

Stats

81 GP – 44 G – 66 A – 110P

48.6 CF% (-0.91 Rel) 43.6 xGF% (-2.18 Rel)

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

All of it? Kane’s 66 assists, 110 points, 35 even-strength goals, 45 even-strength assists, and 80 even-strength points were all career-highs. His 341 shots were a career-high by a mile, and is probably the biggest transformation in his game. Because his 12.9 shooting-percentage is really only about career-average for him, and not the spiked 16% he put up in the year he did win the Hart. So yeah, stats-wise it was ridiculous. And if you watched this team every or most games, you know there was a period there where Kane was the only reason they were scraping to even just overtime a lot of nights, or getting the full two. And he did it with a variety of linemates, not just permanently out there with a running buddy like Panarin in 2015-2016. Six different forwards racked up at least 200 minutes with Kane at even-strength. That’s two lines’ worth getting between 15-20 games or so with Kane. And while their metrics were all over the board with and without Kane, only DeBrincat saw his goals-for percentage rise be better without Kane than with him (giving you some idea the special player Top Cat is). It was simply the most dominant season Kane has put together, and it came past when most players are supposed to have peaked. Yes, it was an offensive league this year and a lot of players saw a spike, but not like this.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

You really have to stretch to find things for Kane’s season. Kane has never been an exceptional possession player, but he’s never had to be. He’ll always out-shoot what his expected goals are because he’s that talented a scorer and playmaker and basically you have to be a true buffoon to screw up the chances he’s going to provide for you. Still, Kane’s metrics were the worst of his career, and if that trend were to continue and he were to have some kind of cold streak it would get kind of ugly in a hurry. Some of that can be attributed to playing with defensively inept players like Strome or DeBrincat to an extent, or to Toews not really being the two-way dynamo he once was, but Kane’s usage is probably going to have to get more and more sheltered as he gets older. There were some nights where you could tell he clearly couldn’t be bothered in his own end, or all over the ice at some points. But given the mess this team was it was hard to blame him all the time. And he would still put up two or three points.

Kane flagged a bit as the year went on, mostly due to the insane workload he was being asked. Kane averaged more than two minutes per game more this year than last, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He would get double-shifted on nights when the Hawks were trailing, which was most nights, so not only was he playing more but he was playing more while chasing the game against bunkered in defenses specifically set out to stop him. It was only natural he wouldn’t keep up the pace, and there are a lot of players who would love to close a season with 16 points in 18 games. It just wasn’t the standard he’d set.

I guess the one question to ask is that the two best individual seasons Kane has had, the Hawks haven’t really done shit. When he won the Hart, they were bounced in the first round. He was arguably better this year, and they only waved at a playoff spot as it drove by. That’s not really on him, and speaks more to the limited influence a winger can have. We can point to Ovechkin, but he can only do so much and if Backstrom and Kuznetsov aren’t there, the Caps probably aren’t a playoff team either. Again, this is more on what’s around Kane than him.

Can I Go Now?

No matter how you slice it up, Kane was on the ice for 84 even-strength goals and 67 against, which is 55%. That latter number doesn’t rank all that highly, but that goals-for is best in the league. And there were only four ES goals he was on the ice for that he didn’t either score or assist, which is…well, insane. You feel like Kane could do that offensively again, and if there was an actual defense behind him it could bring the goals-against down and then you’d see some real shit.

You get the feeling that Kane would prefer to just have set linemates for most of the year, but I don’t know if that’s possible. The Hawks need to add a top-six forward, but it’s hard to see who they could add to set everything in stone. They’ve always been hesitant to pair up Daydream Nation for anything longer than a spurt. Kane and Strome together gets far too domed defensively. Toews isn’t the force he was at that end, so putting them together doesn’t solve everything. They would still need a two-way left-winger. Which you would think could be Saad… but there are “issues” there, let’s say. And that would leave what for Top Cat and Strome? Again, none of this is Kane’s fault.

It is unlikely that Kane will put up 110 points again. But it wasn’t likely he’d do it in the first place. If the Hawks get that top-six winger, and improve the defense so that they actually have the puck more often, and with Kane’s now heavy-shooting ways, 100 points is hardly a big ask.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying To Kill Me And The Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-’19 Player Reviews: John Hayden

By Sam Fels 1668 0

Oh this is certainly a great use of everyone’s time. The only people who liked John Hayden were the broadcast, who will believe that if he’s just given a chance he’ll really make an impact for the next 10 years. Even when he’s on another team, which hopefully is next year, you can be sure Olczyk will be bleating on about how he never got a fair shake in town even when he’s spending 80% of his time on a bus in the AHL for the next three organizations he plays for in the next five years. But hey, we’re being thorough, so let’s do whatever this is for the Ivy Leaguer, which everyone loves to point out.

Stats

54 GP – 3 G – 2 A – 5 P

46.1 CF% (-3.5 Rel)  46.9 xGF% (+2.1 Rel)

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

I guess the expected goals are nice. That’s about it. Hayden never rose above a fourth-line role except for the occasional audition on the power play which he always biffed. But on the fourth line, if you’re creating better chances and more of them than you’re giving up, that’s good enough. And I think that’s it. I don’t know what else there is.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

Other than the above complaint about the broadcast, this is the third season that the Hawks have given Hayden a chance to be something of a useful power forward, and then watched it bounce off his stone hands or him not even get there thanks to his even more stone feet. He got a couple chances to play the role of “Annette Frontpresence” on the power play and in the middle six, and he didn’t do anything with any of them. He can’t get there in time to make his size count, and he doesn’t have the hands to make up for it when he ends up around the net magically at the same time the puck is there. He also ended up with 27 penalty minutes somehow and I’m sure all 11 minors he took were of the dumbass variety. You can see the Hawks moving away from their older ideas with their European signings and most of their draftees, where they’re willing to sacrifice size for speed. So Hayden’s presence must be service to some dinosaur in the front office who still believes in GRITHEARTSANDPAPERFAAAARRRRTTTT. Maybe that’s Stan, who knows. Anyway, Hayden has never done anything and will never do anything. The end.

Can I Go Now?

Hayden is signed for one more year at a nothing, which means it can be buried in Rockford and never heard from again. And then he’ll go on some streak there of like 10 goals in 15 games for no reason, get called up, Pat and Eddie will pant, and then he’ll do nothing and the whole cycle will start over again. In our dreams, there’s really no room for him on the bottom six. You have locks like Kampf, Caggiula, and Perlini (maybe?). Dominik Kahun should be on the bottom six and will be moved there with any upgrade on the top half. Dylan Sikura should probably be up full-time next year. Anisimov is still around, so that’s all six spots without any moves whatsoever. And there have to be moves. Hayden will soon be passed on the depth chart by Entwhistle, and there’s also Kubalik coming over as well next season. So we don’t have to deal with this anymore. Thank God for small favors.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Jonathan Toews

Brandon Saad

Dominik Kahun

 

Everything Else

The Logjam They Don’t Have An Answer For

By Sam Fels 1743 0

God bless our friend Scott Powers. Here, even in this nuclear winter of Hawks news while the playoffs go one without them, he’s got seven thousand words on Hawks prospects, some of whom might even matter! I need to take whatever it is he’s taking.

Anyway, the meat of this stuff is right at the top, and concerns Bowen Byram. Scott does something I do a lot, which is to look at players drafted in the same or similar position that play the same spot. That list of first d-men taken certainly makes you sit up straight when you see names like Heiskanen or Makar, and then make your asshole itch when you see Gudbranson or Reinhart get mentioned, though some of this is varied based on the depth of forwards in the draft as well.

Let’s go one better than Scott, and just go through any d-man taken in the top three picks the past few years: Dahlin, Heiskanen, Ekblad, Ryan Murray, Gudbranson, and Hedman in the past 10 years. So that’s possibly three franchise-turners in Dahlin, Heiskanen, and Hedman (Heiskanen is the only reach there but he sure looks like he could be). One just below that in Ekblad, and then two whiffs in Murray and Gudbranson. And even Murray found some use this year.

No one would say Byram is a reach at three, and every projection you read says he’s a future #1 d-man, and could even be ready to play in the NHL next year. He’s certainly more certain and projects out better than anything the Hawks already have. But Powers goes on to note the wealth of other prospects the Hawks have on the blue line, the ones they already have signed, and says the Hawks might skip over him because of that.

Which I think is horseshit.

Look (say that like Terry Boers), if the Hawks think Alex Turcotte has the hands to take the torch from Jonathan Toews one day to anchor this team from center, then I or no one else could have complaints. He might be that. We wouldn’t get the immediate satisfaction of seeing him, because he’s going to Madison for a year (lucky boy), but long-term that could be just as good of a pick and prospect. Fine. If he’s higher on their board than Byram, you do that.

But if Byram is highest on their board, you take him and you worry about the rest later. That “wealth” of defensive prospects puts you on the radar for any big piece you want to trade for (say, what’s up, PK? You like Italian beef?). Having too many prospects or players for a position is a better spot to be in than not having enough. It’s not like any of these guys are on the cap yet anyway.

And none of the prospects the Hawks have are projected to be all-world, do-everything ass-kickers for the lord. They may become that, or combine with Byram to be that. But that’s built on more hope than it seems to be with Byram. There are no sure things after the top two picks, but Byram certainly is close enough.

We’ve run over this again and again, but you can’t talk about this without discussing what the Hawks already have locked in for next year. You know the list: Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, Jokiharju Gustafsson. And you know what we’ll say. Seabrook shouldn’t even be a consideration. Saying he has to play and play a lot simply because of his salary is doubling the mistake. Maybe the Hawks are doing this, and they would never say it publicly, but maybe they know that Seabrook is the #7 next year, and not just the number on his back.

Here’s another thing. The Hawks aren’t the only team badly needing defensive help, and there’s only one true difference-maker on the UFA market, and you know that by now. There’s one or two more that might help a team, but spending in the middle of the market is what gets you in cap hell. So a few teams are going to miss out on Erik Karlsson, and I’m willing to bet you could sucker them into Erik Gustafsson in a hurry. That points total is going to be the light that blinds some GM to his faults. He’s only going to be here one more year anyway, then be far too expensive for a glorified Lubomir Visnovsky. You were a dogshit team with him popping off for 65 points anyway, so what’s the difference here? I’d make the bet that Jokiharju can do most of the stuff he did on the power play with a little prodding. Byram or Boqvist certainly can, if they prove ready from the off.  You can do something here.

If you were to take that tack, you only have three spots locked up for next year, and fuck Jokiharju could play himself out of one just like he did this term. You never know. That’s plenty of room for an actual prospect or two to take a dive, not Gustav Forsling or Carl Dahlstrom. It’s also enough room for an acquisition. And it probably saves your cap space for help at forward.

There, I’ve done it. I’m so smart.

It would be a mistake for the Hawks to draft for need when they may not have another swing at a pick like this for a while (and when they do, it won’t be this front office taking it). They also need to have a frank discussion of what they really have, not what they want us to think they have. There’s a lot of ways to screw this up, but there’s a lot of ways to get it right too.