Hockey

Game #2 – Sharks 5, Hawks 4 – It Was All Illusion, A Fragment of the Whole

By Rose Rankin 1773 0

OK, so it certainly wasn’t dull. That’s one thing I can definitely say about this home-opener-legit-season-opener since the Prague game felt like a weird extra preseason game. There were goals, there were changes to the lines, there were shameful defensive breakdowns—a little something for everyone. But at the end of the day, the Hawks lost to a struggling team they should have beat. Let’s jump in, shall we?

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

–There was a lot to unpack with the forward lines here. First of all, Saad-Kampf-Kubalik looked outstanding in the first period and Kubalik opened the scoring while in total that line had 11 shots. They had the puck constantly when they were on the ice together—an 87.5 CF% at evens. So everyone was thrilled and of course Coach Cool Youth Pastor had to go changing it up by the second period, moving Kubalik to the top line. Now, Kubalik played really well and he replaced the hapless Alex Nylander (more on him later), but once that happened Saad and Kampf basically went dark. They had precisely zero shots in the second period and not much more than that in the third. So while I understand the desire to stack the top line, there is also the “if-it-ain’t-broke” side of things to consider. And messing with what’s working so suddenly may not have been the mark of true leadership.

–Also, can we just have Top Cat-Strome-Kane on a line please? The give-and-go that they had on the fourth goal was a thing of beauty. It does not take a hockey genius to see this. And the argument (if there was one) for keeping Kane and Toews together is backed up by nothing. They had a 14 CF% together and generated no shots. Seriously. If CCYP is going to shake up the lines reflexively, then he should at least follow the empirical evidence with the second line, maybe keep Kubalik with Toews and put Shaw with them. Of course there may be better answers but it’s not some great mystery the world can never solve.

–So back to Alex Nylander for a minute, who didn’t make it past the FFUD over/under of being on the top line through the second period. Essentially he just sucked, I’m not really sure how else to say it. He gave up turnovers in the defensive zone and at his own blue line, he whiffed on a wide open shot in the high slot, his passes were off the mark, and to top it all off, he brought DOWN Saad’s and Kampf’s production. He was like the Cone of Ignorance around Bart Simpson. I realize we may be subjected to watching this fool for a while longer but it’s going to be really cruel really soon, especially given the state of the defense, which is acquisition only worsened. Switch him out for Brendan Perlini—equally lazy, can’t be any worse?

–And yes, Andrew Shaw scored two goals. And yes, the crowd loved him and cheered wildly during the pregame. And yes, he took dumb penalties and no I am not convinced he’s worth the money or will actually help the team. All that “scrappiness” the broadcast likes to go on about didn’t score at the end of the game when he had a point-blank chance and couldn’t finish. I know, I’m motherfucking this guy into a 100-point season and if that’s the case, so be it. But he’s not “my guy,” despite what my esteemed colleagues may say.

–The defense was…what we both feared and expected. Erik Gustafsson and Slater Koekkoek on a pairing should be a war crime, and it led directly to the Sharks’ winning goal as Gus practically stared at the puck while it was being taken from him, and Koekkoek was somewhere out in the boondocks near where I live, that’s how far he was from the play. Beyond that, most everyone was bad anyway, the lone exception being Connor Murphy who was above 50% in possession and had a few key break-ups of passes. Ya know, playing defense, as is his job description. Yet, he managed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time for a deflection that led to one of the Sharks’ goals, so even though that’s not his fault (he was in position in front of the net), that’s how things went. Olli Maatta and Brent Seabrook were, shall we say, not the top defensemen that they were made out to be in the preseason. The argument (if there was one) against having Boqvist up here is looking flimsier by the minute.

–Honestly the Sharks weren’t that good tonight, but it’s pretty damn sad when a guy older than me can score multiple goals on you. Just sayin’. What they were able to do was convert on their power plays, which is just another way of saying the Hawks’ PK is as putrid as where we left it last season. They managed to kill off one penalty! This is where we’re at.

–On that note, the Hawks got nothing on the power play and they were mostly just chaotic. Granted they only had two chances, but their first one was nothing but bad passes, an offsides on a messed-up zone entry, and not pulling the trigger when a shot was open. So it wasn’t their typical issue with standing still and waiting for Patrick Kane—it was more of a clusterfuck that came to nothing.

–Corey Crawford had an .853 SV% tonight, which is not exactly inspiring, but honestly a number of those goals can’t be pinned solely on him. Still, he should have had at least the fifth one. His team didn’t play well enough in front of him and you know I’m not going to throw him under the bus, but it would be nice to see a stronger performance.

Well, we’re underway for real now in 2019. There were flashes of brilliance, potential for things that will actually work, and there were cringe-worthy mistakes. Pretty much like we thought there would be. Buckle up for the rest of it. Onward and upward…

Beer de jour: Odell Oktoberfest

Photo credit: NHL.com

 

Hockey

It’s Time…For Time

By Sam Fels 1482 0

I was reading Ryan Lambert’s article today about how the Oilers pretty much have to run Leon Draisaitl‘s and Connor McDavid‘s ice-time tank to the “E” every night, and began thinking about how the Hawks will manage the same thing this season.

The Hawks aren’t a deep team, though they’re deeper than the Oilers even with Drais-Cube and McJesus. If the Hawks are going to do anything this year that you might remember, they’re going to do it on the backs of Kane, Toews, and DeBrincat doing remarkable things. So how much should Jeremy Colliton toss them over the boards? We know the answer is a lot, but finding the right amount is going to be tricky.

As we know last year, Patrick Kane only trailed Draisaitl and McDavid in time last season. He had a jump of a full two minutes per game from the previous season, breaking over 22:00 per game. That was also the highest of his career, at age 30, and even though his insane workout regimen has been well documented, it seemed less than ideal.

And that was bared out as the season went along. Kane went for 16 points in his last 18 games, which pretty much every other player on the planet save a handful would consider the best streak of their lives. But it doesn’t look as good when you consider that in the previous 38 games Kane went for 65 points (seriously). And sure, there’s some variance in there with power play scoring and shooting-percentage and such. But anyone who watched the Hawks in March and April last year (or would admit to it and then accept the concerned looks from their friends that would follow) knows that Kane looked a half-step slower in the season’s final throes. And why wouldn’t he?

Now maybe after a season of doing it, Kane is more prepared to take on 22 minutes per night, and wouldn’t you know he played 21:30 in the season opener. Still, 22 minutes a night for a winger seems a tad high, though we’re likely to get it again as this Alex Nylander thing blows up in their faces down the road. At least until my guy Philip Kurashev comes to save the day!

Toews also saw a big jump in his minutes last year, and also a career-high, clocking in at a flat 21:00. The Hawks are probably even thinner at center this year than they were last, though perhaps Ryan Carpenter is a push to Artem Anisimov depending on how you look at it. This would be less of a problem if Kirby Dach is kept around, but we’ve had that talk. How much do you want to push Toews at 31? Toews also tailed off a bit last season toward the end, though not as sharply. He had 15 points in the last 18 games where he’d gone 45 in 38 before.

Perhaps it’s DeBrincat who might see the real push in time this year? Top Cat only averaged a shade under 18 minutes a night last year. Now it would be easy to point out he doesn’t kill penalties and needs to be sheltered in shifts, but you could say the same things about Kane. Perhaps Top Cat doesn’t create as much offensively as Kane does, he’s more of a finisher, but he’s also not bereft of inspiration for his teammates either. He’s never been asked to do it much, always installed as the finisher on a line or power play. But it wouldn’t hurt to see if he can do more when shifted occasionally with some plugs, because it’s in his locker.

It might also help if Brandon Saad could author some streaks to warrant pushing 20 minutes a night, but that ship might have sailed. Same goes from Dylan Strome, and that ship is very much still in port.

Needless to say, the Hawks need these guys on the ice as much as possible, without cracking 22 or really even going over 21 minutes a night if they want Daydream Nation to still have anything in the tank come spring. The hope is that Strome and Top Cat make themselves available and necessary for 19-20 minutes per night as well. If that happens, the Hawks might actually do something. If they have to lean on the plus-30 Kane and Toews over 21 minutes a night again, they’re probably in that spot with the upstream and no paddles thing.

Hockey

Waiting On Dach, Homestand Charge, And Whatever Else I Can Think Of

By Sam Fels 1676 0

It’s been one of the stranger starts to the season, in its lack of action. The Hawks have played one game, while some teams have played four, and we’re just sitting around basically still waiting for the season to get started. We can’t draw any conclusions after one game (we’re not Toronto), so we don’t know anything more or less than we did before. So we’ll try and clear whatever’s going on, which is a whole lot of not much.

-Perhaps the biggest story to watch over this homestand is when Kirby Dach will get into the lineup, and how he will do when he gets there. Given that the nine-game “trial” only covers the games he dresses for, this could go on all month. Which probably wouldn’t make Saskatoon all that happy, but no one has ever given a fuck what Saskatoon thinks and no one ever will. The Hawks are being awfully cautious, though at this point it doesn’t seem to have that much to do with his injured brain.

It’s looking like the Hawks won’t dress him for the home opener, given that he’ll only have a handful of “real” practices under his belt. We all wish to have seen him in preseason, but in preseason he would have been beating up on AHL-level talent for the most part and we’re already pretty sure he can do that.

The other part, as it always is with the Hawks, is the worry about his defensive game. It feels like a lot of the time the Hawks always see what a player can’t be instead of what he can, and the one time they saw what a player could be they ended up with Alex DeBrincat never having to step foot back in junior or in the minors at all. They certainly see what a player could be when they trade for him, i.e. Strome and Nylander (jury’s out there) or Koekkoek (jury’s definitely in there) and we could go on. But when it’s from their own system, they’re awfully harsh.

To me, we already know this team is going to blow defensively. There’s like, no hope that they’ll ever be good. So really, they need to try and outscore all of their problems. Installing Dach right between Saad and Kubalik would help you achieve that. Or the truly ballsy move, which would never ever happen, is to put Toews there to give you a hybrid checking/scoring line and let Dach play with Kane and Mystery Doofus on the left wing and let them only play offense. Teams would be tempted to play their top lines against that one, and probably do very well doing so, but would also run the risk of a Saad-Toews-Kubalik unit running roughshod over their second and third lines. But this will only happen in my mind.

The thing is, Dach is not going to learn that much about defense playing against children he’s putting up 120 points against. We pretty much know he’s physically dominant in that league. It is possible to drip-feed him responsibility at the top level, with some rough nights assuredly in there. With DeBrincat’s extension, we know the Hawks are merely focused on the next three to four years before a hard reset for just about everything. There actually isn’t that much time to waste.

-It’s a little silly to say in October, and things can change down the line, but the Hawks kind of do need to crush this season opening homestand. For one, the only world-beater on the docket is the Knights, who have spent three games looking like the West’s best, which makes me feel made of vomit. There’s also the little nugget that the Hawks have never beaten them. There’s a couple actually bad teams on here, a couple middling (though the Hawks just got their ass kicked by one of them). And whatever the Jets are right now, which is probably all of these things in one. Except without a defense.

But more importantly, if the Hawks don’t gain some kind of energy from even a 4-3 or hopefully 5-2 or better, you’d have to think there would be even more questions about the stewardship of this team or what it’s meant to do. You can’t really ask for more at the start of a season than seven straight home games. Everything the “Magic Training Camp” was supposed to do can be most easily instilled with this many home games. Everything you want to do, you’re supposed to be able to do at home. Especially when the opposition isn’t all that daunting for the most part.

If the Hawks still look disjointed and ill-equipped, there won’t be the excuses of “having to change systems on the fly” like there was last year. Or getting used to a new voice. Or figuring out what team they have. They’re supposed to know, and these seven games should show one way or the other.

The schedule, if you can judge it only a week in on who you think is good and isn’t, doesn’t really get daunting until the end of November. But we’ve seen what happens when this team has to chase later in the year. Here’s a chance to start to carve out a trench.

-Anyone else think it’s weird that training camp started with worries over Calvin de Haan’s shoulder and now it’s his groin that’s keeping him questionable?

-One thing we haven’t discussed a lot, and probably should have, is how Jeremy Colliton will handle a goalie controversy. We can expect Lehner and Crawford to split starts just about to begin. But what if on these seven games Lehner severely outplays Crow? If it’s the other way, that’s easy. Crow is the pedigreed veteran everyone loves. But if Lehner starts to earn the lion’s share of time, is this something a young coach in his first full season is ready to handle? Can he actually sit a vet with far more accomplishments than he has? And if he does, why does it have to stop there?

At least it’s interesting.

Hockey

Game #1 – Hawks 3, Flyers 4: Nothing Rhymes With Orange

By Sam Fels 2438 0

Box Score

Shift Chart

Natural Stat Trick

Ok, so we’re off. Sort of. It’s a little silly to jump to any conclusions off of one game played in a weird place due to odd scheduling. It’s a little difficult to not feel a tad deflated when the Hawks looked exactly like we kind of feared they would. Sloppy, slow, and disjointed, unable to deal with any kind of forecheck or pressure. It’s hard to get too mad when you’ve had to do without your two best defensive d-men (and maybe best overall), as no team really wants to scrape into #8 and #9 on their depth chart. Even if the Hawks are just opting to not use one of their best in Adam Boqvist instead of being forced deeper into the well.

The Hawks will remain in most games simply because their top end talent will scrape out a goal or two because it can. That said, this wasn’t exactly a world-beater on the other side, and the Hawks were second-best all over. The metrics and numbers are bordering on heinous.

But hey, it’s my job to clean it up, so let’s hop to it:

The Two Obs

-So you’ve had three weeks of MAGIC TRAINING CAMP, which is three weeks to see who can play with who and what works best. And two periods into your first game, you’re already rearranging things from the start. That feels…less than ideal.

-Alex Nylander went from the penthouse to the outhouse pretty quickly. There is little doubt that if you can get him in open ice, he can do things. That’s what the first goal was as he was able to corral a loose puck at center and had the freedom of the blue line as the Flyers backed off him. The problem is the Sabres and other scouts didn’t think he had much interest or ability to find openings in tight spaces when everyone is where they should be. Clearly Colliton didn’t think much of those efforts today, as halfway through he was skating with Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith. Drake Caggiula was called to try and open up some space.

Which, if you’re skating Toews and Kane together, is what they need. Toews isn’t the dual space-opener/finisher he once was. He is probably better as the finisher on a line now, evidenced by the 30+ he put up last season. Which means they need a forechecker, grunt-type, which Caggiula is. Nylander is most certainly not.

-I’m still getting used to the xG markers for individual games in both hockey and soccer, but when you’re basically getting doubled up in that at both evens and overall, you’re not creating much, you’re giving up too much, and you’re basically getting domed.

-The Hawks experts on TV and some in the media will try and chalk this up to just one-off sloppiness or looseness. But that’s what this team will look like a lot of nights. They can’t gain the opposing line with control and speed because their defense is so slow that when they do corral a puck in their own zone all they can do is just gasp for air, i.e. fire it out to the neutral zone or in the vague direction of a teammate at their own line, praying to Yahweh that they can somehow corral that pass. They still try and make too many passes to get out, and they don’t have time for it most of the time anyway. Yes, teams mostly now just want to lay pucks out into the neutral zone for forwards to skate onto. Or just make one pass and go. But that is done with a modicum of control or plan. The Hawks are just thrashing about, trying to find the sides of the pool to keep from going under.

-It might look a little better if Duncan Keith can locate a fuck to give between now and whenever. My guess is he isn’t looking all that hard. His gap on Konecny’s second was simply woeful. And I counted two or three times when he half-heartedly tried to make a play at his line, his former calling-card, missed and fell on his face.

-Which means you’re restricted to individual brilliance, which Kane provided for goals two and three today. Doesn’t hurt that #2 went to one of the best finishers on the planet.

-Colliton was double-shifting Kane in the second period. Does he know another song to sing?

-Your best possession line was the second one, and I would hope we see more of that and due to the improved skating of Strome’s which is clear.

-Saad-Kampf-Kubalik was given the dungeon shifts and came out basically even, which is nice. One wonders just how this line would be deployed when Dach is the center, which the Hawks are going to at least try. Of course, the one thing you might want to try is slotting Toews between these two wingers, putting Dach with Kane and Caggiula or Shaw or someone and keeping them exclusively in the offensive zone. Think we’ll see that? No, me either.

-One problem for Boqvist is that the Hawks already don’t use Gustafsson on the kill. So if 27 were in the lineup as well, that means the Hawks would be trying to kill penalties with just four d-men. This could be solved by dressing seven d-men, but the amount of piss that gets spilled onto the floor every time the Hawks try this probably keeps that from happening.

-Some debate on Twitter about Shaw’s penalty that eventually resulted in a four-on-four goal against. Yes, no one wants DeBrincat getting crosschecked gleefully and freely while he’s prone on the ice. But if Shaw just goes and grabs and hugs Sanheim, it’s almost never a penalty. When you wind up trying to do a Bo Jackson across the other guy’s chest, you’re inviting the ref to make a call, no matter how weak. Just grab him and do your yappy thing. It’s what you do best.

Let’s see how it looks with Murphy and de Haan back. Until then…

Onwards…

Hockey

Game #1 – Hawks vs. Flyers Preview: It’s Time To Play The Music

By Sam Fels 1502 0

vs.

PUCK DROP: 1pm

TV: NBCSN in the 606, NHLN outside

WOOTER ICE: Broad St. Hockey

What seemed like a three-year offseason finally comes to an end this afternoon, or at least it sort of feels like it does. This still has an extended preseason feel to it, even though the points will be real. The Hawks don’t play for another week after this, giving it sort of an odd oasis-in-the-desert-of-West-Texas feel. Still, these points might matter come April, so you might as well get them.

We’ll start with the reason we’re here, and that’s the Hawks. The opener feels like new toy day in a way, though the Hawks will have to wait to unveil a couple. Calvin de Haan won’t make the bell, which allows Dennis Gilbert and Slater Koekkoek to be your third pairing and for you to wonder if maybe there isn’t a better way to spend your lunch break. Robin Lehner will cede the first net of the season to Corey Crawford, as he should.

So whatever’s “new” about the Hawks today is what you were kind of worried about before. Olli Maatta will debut next to Brent Seabrook, because of those preseason performances that apparently only the coaches could see. Alex Nylander will get to run with Daydream Nation, as the Hawks make every effort to prove he does in fact give a shit, or slightly more of a shit to actually get inside the circles. No one was actually “worried” about Zack Smith or Ryan Carpenter, because we know what they’re here for. So yeah…ok, maybe it doesn’t have the juice of a real “New Toy Day.”

As far as weird openers in a foreign country that don’t really feel like openers, there are harder landings than the Flyers. Except they do come with a fair amount of speed up front, which is something that will give the Hawks problems all season. And if you’re wondering, “Doesn’t every team have a fair amount of speed up front?” Well, now you see the problem.

The Flyers are in a strange place, where it feels like they’re rebuilding but most of their players have been around a while now, whatever their age. And to help take it a step forward, they have three failed coaches behind the bench. Alain Vigneault seems to get a bounce in his first year or two, but eventually drives everyone nuts and by the time he’s fired it’s usually just about the time his players are constructing a flammable effigy of him or two in the dressing room. He’s also an odd choice for such a young team. Beyond that, what Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo have to offer other than grunts and suggesting “MOAR HITZ,” I can’t tell you.

Still, the Flyers should boast a decent enough top-six, with Giroux and Travis Konecny flanking Sean Couturier up top, and new signing (and way overpaid) Kevin Hayes between Jakub Voracek and either James van Riemsdyk or Oskar Lindblom. It’s not the best top six, but it’s hardly the worst, even if Giroux is something of just a spot-up shooter right now. Joel Farabee turned some heads in camp at 19, and will start in the bottom six today, with the hopes of sticking around longer term.

The real hope for the Flyers is on the back end and especially in the crease, where Carter Hart is hopefully going to end the decades-long reign of all the goblins and evil spirits that have inhabited the Flyers crease. Hart was the only one of eight (!) goalies last year to look good, has been billed as the answer since arriving in the organization, and looks the part. The Flyers can only hope that he is finally the one strong enough to overcome the curse of anyone in orange pads.

The Flyers have promise on the blue line, though Ivan Provorov will have to overcome something of a plateaued year last year. Robert Hagg, Travis Sanheim, and Samuel Morin are all young, which is why Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen were brought in to be steadying hands (Niskanen was also brought in to make sure Radko Gudas didn’t turn them all into felons). Shayne Gostisbehere needs to prove he wasn’t just a one- or two-year power play phenomenon, because the Flyers have more than enough talent there to shuffle him along to save money.

Whatever it’s going to be, it starts now. The Flyers don’t have near the speed to destroy the Hawks defense, but they have enough that we can see what the plan actually is here. If they get snowed under by this, especially without de Haan or Connor Murphy in the lineup, we know how big the problems just might be. And whether or not Crow can keep Atlas-ing this team so that it’s scoring can make up the difference.

And…here…we….go.

Hockey

The Production of Cats We Like

By Sam Fels 1797 0

The rare genuinely exciting news broke out of Hawks camp this morning, where it was announced that Alex DeBrincat has put pen to paper on a three-year extension, starting next season. The deal will pay $6.4M per season, which is honestly kind of insane.

Top Cat would have had every right to pursue what Kyle Connor, or Patrik Laine were after, or what Mikko Rantanen actually got. Same goes for William Nylander. This could have turned quite ugly next summer, and likely spilled into next fall. Clearly DeBrincat wanted the security of the next three years and the Hawks were equally excited to have this in the bag quickly and efficiently.

There are clearly some interesting quirks to this deal. You can’t help but notice it ends at the same time as Kane’s and Toews’s contracts, which is when the Hawks might be headed for a hard reset anyway. Should they send Kirby Dach back to the WHL, assuming he’s still alive, that would be the end of his entry-level deal as well. Funny enough, that just so happens to be when Duncan Keith’s deal is also up, assuming he makes it all the way through. Strange, no? It’ll also be the first full season after a new CBA, when a tweaked or possibly wholly different system is in place.

Now, there could be some sort of under-the-table agreement that when the Hawks have at least near $27M in cap space freshly available in 2022 thanks to the expiration of contracts to The Main Three, that Top Cat will get a further extension. Or he’s betting on himself to get a really big number. Either way, the Hawks should have the flexibility then to do what they need, assuming they don’t fuck it up be reacquiring…oh I don’t know, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Teuvo Teravainen when they’re old (please reacquire Teuvo).

As we said on the podcast, if the Hawks really do plan on making another run with the old guard still in place, they kind of have to do it during Boqvist’s and Dach’s entry-level deals (assuming those players turn out to be everything they hope). Basically in the next three or four years. Does this deal help them do that? Sure does, but it’s still going to take some work. They currently have $11M in space for next year, and they have two big spots they have to fill. One is goalie, and the other is Dylan Strome’s spot, as the defense is going to be reinforced by kids (you’d hope. Man, a lot of parentheticals today).

I say “spot,” because I’m willing to wager that the Hawks want to see Strome earn it this season. If he were to spit it, they would just let Dach take the #2 center role before ascending to the #1 cheaply and basically tell Strome to do one. If Strome does earn an extension, him and whatever goalie they choose almost certainly eat up most if not all the cap space the Hawks have. Of course, some of that could be alleviated by jettisoning some combination of Saad, Shaw, Smith, or Maatta off the roster either during this season or in the summer. All these guys have something to play for, clearly.

Still, to get Top Cat at that number is a good thing. A very good thing. Keep in mind that even with the juiced scoring last year, there were still only 13 guys to eclipse 40 goals. Top Cat was one of them, and they’re getting him for a touch more than Jake Guentzel. It’s nice work. It also removes that headache discussion all season, which is a relief to everyone.

So it’s over to you, Strome.

Hockey

Wheel It Out Here, Carnac

By Sam Fels 1824 0

We used to do this every year, so we’ll get back to it. Your FFUD Hawks staff predicts what will happen in the upcoming season. 

Big One First – Predicted Points and standings for the Hawks

McClure: 92 Points, 2nd wild card in the west

Pullega: 88 points, 9th in Conference (just outside wild card)

Hess: 86 points, 9th or 10th in West

Rankin: 88 pts, 9th in conference

Feather: 102 points – 3rd in the Central

Fels: 88 points, 10th in West

How many games will each goalie play and how good will they be?

McClure: Crawford 46, .916   Lehner 35, 910

Pullega: Crow: 34. He’ll play very well (.920) but he’ll get hurt again. Robin: 44. He’ll play fine (.910) and probably get four years. Delia: Four because both bird boys will be hurt at the same time at some point. He’ll be meh (.900).

Hess:Crow: 20, will be good but not great (.912), and deal with minor injuries early. He gets traded at the deadline, sadly

Robin: 45. He’ll be slightly better than Crow (.918) and get’s extended
Delia plays 17 while Crow’s hurt  and then backs up after Crow is traded. Plays well enough (.906) for Hawks to keep him as the backup moving forward
Rankin: Crawford: 35, will be good but not great and will struggle with brown brain at one point

Lehner: 40, will be good but terrifying at times, .912
Delia: 7, backs up Lehner when Crow is out, mediocre
Feather: 47 and 35 but don’t make me say which will have more. I’m having nostalgic feelings to 2008-09 when Huet and Khabibulin were going every other start.
Fels: Crow 43 (.918), Lehner 30 (.910), Delia 9 (.908)
Will the power play be over 20% for the year?
McClure: Just under at 19.6%
Pullega: No. 17% tops. Gus is going to bask in his own farts from last year and crater any trade value he had.
Hess: I’m calling this a push, they’ll finish +/- 1% of 20%
Rankin: Just barely, 20.5
Feather: Yes (Hawk voice) Let’s say 23%
Fels: Nope, 18%
How many games will Boqvist play?
McClure: 26
Pullega: 9
Hess: 30
Rankin: 15ish
Feather: 33 – I’m foreseeing a late to mid-season call up when the Hawks can’t pretend he’s not their 1st or 2nd best defensemen anymore.
Fels: 37. Called up somewhere among the holidays when the Hawks realize they have no choice, but there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Dach play?
McClure: 7
Pullega: 9
Hess: 9
Rankin: 9
Feather: in the NHL- Head too dingy
Fels: 70 – he sticks but has injury issues at times and there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Versteeg play?
McClure: 15
Pullega: 15, 14 of them will matter
Hess: too many
Rankin: 12, and it will be ridiculous
Feather: Too many and not far enough away
Fels: I refuse to answer this and it’s my damn question
 
Strome’s point-total:
McClure: 69 (nice)
Pullega: 60
Hess: 27 goals, 81 points. Let’s fuckin go
Rankin: 60, solid but not astronomical
Feather: 23 goals and 56 assists
Fels: 21 goals, 55 points
 
Toews’s goal and point-total:
McClure: 31-40-71
Pullega: 28-47-75
Hess: 29 goals, 79 points
Rose: 30 and 75
Feather: 38 goals and 80 points
Fels: 30 goals, 62 points
 
Biggest surprise:
McClure: Calvin de Haan will actually prove to be a metrically solid defenseman
Pullega: Kubalik. 40 points, 25 goals (5 PP)
Hess: The Hawks trade Brandon Saad to Edmonton at the trade deadline
Rankin: Andrew Shaw is useless in the top 6 and takes absurd numbers of penalties. This will not come as a surprise to me but to his many fans, it will.
Feather: Alex Nylander – because reasons, buddy.
Fels: That Dach sticks as Hawks realize they only have about three seasons to work with.
 
Biggest disappointment:
McClure: Robin Lehner will not seize the position from Crawford, leaving the Hawks with two huge question marks in net at the end of the season
Pullega: I’d say Nylander, but that would imply expectations. Let’s go with Gus. 35 points.
Hess: That Pullega called Tampa “Ning.” Also that the Hawks have a lot of high scoring forwards and solid goaltending but still miss the playoffs because of the blue line being so bad
Rankin: Colliton’s adherence to a hybrid man-to-man system that doesn’t work with this lineup.
Feather: There are no disappointments in a 102 point campaign – only slight annoyances. I’ll go with Brent Seabrook and somehow still strong-arming his way on this roster when he may not be the 8th best d-men in the organ-I-zation.
Fels: Hawks trade Connor Murphy because everyone else is unwanted by every other team.
 
Western Champ:
McClure: Colorado
Pullega: Sharks
Hess: Colorado
Rankin: Colorado
Feather: HAWKS, my FRENT
Fels: San Jose (except I really think it’s going to be the team down I-55 but I can’t say it)
 
Eastern Champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Ning
Hess: Toronna
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
 
Cup champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Tampa
Hess: Toronto
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
Hockey

It’s Probably Time For Pat Foley To Go

By Sam Fels 5967 0

Let me contrast two organizations in this town. A month or so ago, a brilliantly researched and written piece about the Bears’ throwback jerseys by Jack Silverstein at Windy City Grid Iron pointed out the problems with said jerseys. That would be that they came from a time when black players were banned from the NFL, and how awkward it seemed that the Bears would not be wearing it. This caused the Bears themselves to address it head on in the week leading up to the game, releasing a video with several players commenting on the debate, problem, and why they felt it was important for them to wear the jerseys. For it being staged, I actually thought it was pretty well done. It certainly wasn’t the Bears hiding or skirting the issue, we can say that.

So, do you think the Hawks will be addressing this?

I wouldn’t try to tell you this is the exact same thing. One is directly from the organization and one is something of an offhand remark by an announcer. But they come from the same place, and carry some of the same issues, and both can be damaging.

Believe me, I know all the arguments that are coming from the people who I would bet good money own a pair of Zubas or six. “It was just a joke.” “It’s Pat Foley, he’s old.” “Well, that does sound like a shortstops name!” Heard it all before, will hear it all again.

At the base of it, however innocent or off the cuff it was, it reinforces that if you have a Hispanic last name, hockey isn’t for you. You don’t belong. However softly it might do that, it still does that. Which seems like maybe not the best method of carrying out, “Hockey is for everyone.” Certainly, participation in hockey faces what we’ll call an uncertain future if they don’t engage with and get Hispanic kids involved. Also, the best player on the league’s signature team is Hispanic (Auston Matthews). Hockey is already seen, and often is, as a whites-only-and-keep-it-that-way. That doesn’t fly in this day and age.

Now, is this alone a fireable offense from Foley? I struggle to get there, but I could see where people might. I think an earnest apology on the next game broadcast would suffice, along with an acknowledgment from the Hawks themselves. The Hawks do a fair amount of outreach with minority communities here in town, and this would run counter to that and something they definitely should want to get out in front of to not undo any of that work. Though man would I want to be a fly on the wall with whatever team employee has to tell Foley to do this.

This would be an opportunity for the Hawks to stand out from the league again, on a very important issue. It could reinforce the work they’ve already done, if they handle it correctly.

While it may not warrant a dismissal on its own, as yet another piece of evidence in the case against Foley, it’s getting pretty pretty mountainous. And I reiterate, I grew up with Foley and Tallon on my headphones way past my bedtime broadcasting from Chicago Stadium. I know exactly what he means to Hawks fans, because he means that to me. Doesn’t mean I can ignore what’s gone on here the past few years.

The biggest complaint you get from everywhere is that Foley hasn’t been able to hide his displeasure with the team. Which is fine.  We don’t want simple water-carriers in the booth (though that hasn’t stopped him and Edzo from doing just that in regards to certain players). Criticism is welcome and vital. But it goes beyond that when Foley makes it clear how much he’d rather be doing something else and how hard it is to watch this team.

Sure, we do that here, but it isn’t our job to sell the product at all. We’re supposed to tell you what we think. It’s all we do. And while that has a place in a broadcast, it can’t be all of it. Ask Len Kasper or Jason Benetti how you present a team that sucks in a fun way for the viewer. And they either do it or had to do it every damn day.

Add to that Foley is usually behind the play, or misidentifying everyone, or just grab-assing it with Olczyk, and you get a pretty unlistenable broadcast. This is the Hawks, it’s a job most every up-and-coming play-by-play guy would remove a digit or two for.

Everyone loses the fastball. Throw some casual racism on this pile, and what you’re left with is something the Hawks simply don’t need anymore, and could enhance. It’s time.

Hockey

Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

By Sam Fels 1413 0

We’ll end our player previews with the captain, Captain Marvel as we dubbed him 11 years ago, whom most folks are taking as a sure bet. I’m not quite so convinced, but he’s the one player of the “the core” whose aging is being planned for, through the drafting of Kirby Dach. Toews was able to shut the critics down last year, with his biggest point- and goal-total of his career at age 3o. Maybe there is life after 30? We try and prove it every day (well, some of us). Can Toews keep the wheel in the sky turning? The variables on his team may hold the answer.

2018-2019

82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P 

50.1 CF% (+1.32 Rel)   55.5% OZS

44.4 xGF% (-0.75 Rel) 

21:00 Average TOI

A Brief History: After the previous season, it was popularly thought that Toews was most definitely on the back nine of his career. A measly 52 points and 20 goals, the third straight season he hadn’t cracked 60 points, and we all at least wondered if he had finally moved into the final phase of his career as something of just a checking center. But if you looked a little deeper, you noticed that his SH% had cratered for two years, and his metrics were actually some of the best in recent memory. It wasn’t a huge leap to conclude that with a couple more bounces he still had songs to sing offensively. And he did, with a return to his career SH%, a little more tilt of his use to the offensive zone, and a newish, ready-fire-aim slant to his game that saw him put up a career-high in shots (new goalie pad rules probably didn’t hurt either). Tazer proved that he wasn’t ready to be taken out back quite yet, and there were some games that made you remember what it used to be like when he just decided the Hawks were going to win that night. Of course, it wasn’t enough, but that was more about the help than Toews.

It Was The Best Of Times: This can actually go one of two ways to be the best outcome, though sadly neither of them is the most likely. One is that David Kampf and some combo of Ryan Carpenter or Anton Wedin prove they can handle the defensive, harder shifts and assignments and Toews can continue to slant more offensively than he had previously in his career. His SH% stays around his career norm or even spikes, and the Hawks get another 30-35 goals again. Also, he finally remembers the “jam play” from the corner when he gets the puck down there on the power play, not that he shouldn’t always be somewhere else with the man-advantage.

Or, Kirby Dach balls out in the five games he’s given and sticks, Dylan Strome takes another step forward, and Toews can merely concentrate on the defensive side of the puck and what you get from him offensively is something of a bonus. Stick him with Saad and Kubalik or the like and having a checking line-plus.  Were that to happen it might only be 20-25 goals and 50 points again, but from a center who is second or third on the offensive pecking order that would actually be a bonanza. Think of him as older, non-fuckstick Nazem Kadri.

It Was The BLURST Of Times: Strome stalls out, Dach is sent back to beat up on children for another season (and to stave off his contract for another year) and Toews is asked to both check and score at age 31. He can’t quite find the juice in his legs every night, which sees his defensive game suffer while needing more help in the offensive end, at least forechecking, than he did in the past. Because he is starting more in his defensive zone, the metrics continue to slide and he can’t push the play himself to get the chances he needs. His SH% slides because he’s getting worse chances, and we’re left with yet another mirroring of Anze Kopitar‘s current cycle. And once again fans and writers begin to lament that he has three years left on still one of the biggest contracts in the league.

Prediction: I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the latter section. I’m also highly skeptical that Dach is going to be given a proper chances to stick, which means the Hawks will absolutely need #1 center production from Toews again. They will try and cover for him defensively by having Kampf and Carpenter take those shifts on to start. But the lack of spark, and Jeremy Colliton‘s lack of slotting players for their shifts, is probably going to see Toews take on more shifts out of his own zone, slightly. Toews benefitted from the power play’s midseason nuclear streak, and I also remain unconvinced that will happen again.

I also feel like Toews is a good barometer for what this season is supposed to be in the Hawks’ plans, because the front office would not leave him in the dark about what their intentions were. If this is still another “rebuild” season, we probably won’t see the eat-your-heart-in-front-of-you Toews that we did get on select nights last year. We’ll get more of a professorial Toews, guiding Strome and possibly Dach through the waters. If they told him this is playoffs-or-else, we’ll probably see that fire in his pupils on occasion again.

Toews also is the barometer on the coach. Because he’s the captain, he will give every effort to hold the ship together. It’s what he does. But if Toews starts rolling his eyes or not believing in what he’s being sold, you’re going to know instantly. It happened with Quenneville, so you best believe it can happen with Beto O’Colliton.

Still seeing Toews clear 30 goals and 70 points. How he does it will go a long way to telling you what kind of team you have here.

Previous Player Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Brandon Saad

Zack Smith

Andrew Shaw

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Dylan Strome

By Adam Hess 1429 0

A couple of weeks ago I read a metaphor that was being applied to a certain quarterback of a certain local football team, but as I thought more about it, could also apply to Stan Bowman. Ol’ Stan is like golf – you can play up-and-down golf for 17 holes, constantly battling relief and frustration with your own shots, but then you approach your second shot on 18 and crank it 3 yards short of the pin, and think to yourself, “This really ain’t so bad. I will come back and do it again because I am good.” Bowman has had plenty of hits and misses in recent years, but the Dylan Strome trade is that birdie-on-18 that makes you think this guy really does still have the good GM inside him.

2018-19 Stats

*all stats are with Hawks

58 GP – 17 G – 34 A – 51 P

46.18 CF% (-3.20 CF% Rel) – 56.66 oZS%

43.08 xGF% (-3.26 xGF% Rel)

Avg. TOI: 17:03

A Brief History: Strome was widely considered one of the top prospects in hockey for a few years after being picked third overall in 2015, after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. The only problem with that sentence is that generally, guys picked that high in the draft don’t remain “prospects” very long. It’s plenty understandable for a No. 3 pick to not be in the NHL right away (we may even see that with Kirby Dach, but I digress), but that Strome couldn’t even carve out a regular role for himself on the 2017-18 Coyotes seemed a bit problematic. But Stan and company clearly saw something there – probably the utter lack of quality forwards to pair Strome with in the desert – and realized that John Chayka might be analytically inclined but he’s still a huge dumbass, and was go get Strome and Brendan Perlini for Nick Schmaltz.

The change of scenery was huge for Strome, as he got to pair with his old OHL teammate in Alex DeBrincat, and those two were joined by some guy named Patrick Kane. Strome’s production took off from there, and after having just 3 goals and 6 points in his first 20 games of the season in Glendale, he came to Chicago and produced at a near point per game pace, with 17 goals and 34 assists giving him 51 points in 58 appearances. There are some concerns about those relative CF% and xGF%, but if he can take a step forward in the production, it will help mitigate some of those.

It Was the Best of Times: Strome having a full offseason and camp as a Hawk and being able to get more familiar with Jeremy Colliton‘s system and his teammates results in a huge boom, and he launches himself toward the ceiling that many teams and scouts saw and dreamed on when he was in the draft. Playing in the full 82, Strome steps his production rate to just above a point-per-game rate, and gives the Hawks 90 points from the “second” line. In the process, he solidifies himself as a candidate to be the top center on the Hawks moving forward, and the future looks much brighter for the pivots in Chicago. Oh, and he signs a contract extension with an AAV below $9M.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Strome reverts to the guy he was in Arizona, and solidifies himself as one of the bigger NHL busts in recent memory. Despite playing with Top Cat and Kane for most the season again, he just can’t find a scoring touch and somehow manages to just never be involved in goals by other of those two. He ends up with just 40 points on the year, and the shot and expected goal shares get worse in the process. His feet also morph into literal cinderblocks.

Prediction: I tweeted at Pullega the other day that this season, 12-17-88 has a chance to be A) a whole lot of fuckin’ fun and B) the most productive line in hockey. Kane is a near lock for 90-ish points and 100+ is completely reasonable. Top Cat is gonna give you 70+ and maybe can get into the 90+ range. Strome is the biggest question mark on the line, but I think that playing with those two a lot, which he should and hopefully will, will result in at least 60 points, even by accident. If he becomes an active participant in the production on that line, which I think he will, he can get 80 points himself and potentially even the 90 I mentioned in the Best of Times. My official prediction for Strome – 27 goals, 81 points. Combining that with my 43 goals and 83 points from Top Cat and 45/108 from Kane, we have one line accounting for 115 goals and 272 points. Am I optimistic? Yes. Am I crazy? Maybe not. But I know two things – that would indeed be in the running for most productive line, and also that may still not be enough for the Hawks to make the playoffs, because hockey is fucked and the Hawks blue line might be too.

Stats via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Player Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Brandon Saad

Zack Smith

Andrew Shaw