Hockey

Game #52 – Hawks vs. Coyotes Preview: Back To The Lecture At Hand

By Sam Fels 1475 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 24-21-6   Coyotes 26-21-6

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

NO REGRETS: Five For Howling

The Hawks won’t get to ease their way back into the swing of things after their midseason bye, as they’ll immediately be plunged into something of a wildcard four-pointer in Arizona. And this has not been a location that has been too kind to the Hawks of late, nor the opponent.

The Hawks only have one win in their last five games against the Yotes, and they were popped there earlier in the season and lost what was essentially their last stab at relevance late last season. You wouldn’t think this would be such an issue for the Hawks, given the lack of star power Arizona has and the usual majority of Hawks fans in the stands making it a de facto home game. But their collective speed on every line provides the same problem that teams like Vegas or Colorado do, just on a smaller scale. They can harass the Hawks deep in their own end into mistakes and streak out of their zone away from the Hawks to get into open space.

The Hawks won’t be allowed any excuses tonight, however. They’re four points behind the Yotes, who hold the last wildcard spot, but have two games in hand. Thanks to the Jets incompetence and the Preds not being a whole lot better (as well as having their own bye), the Hawks are still in this with only Nashville to leap to get to Arizona. And the Predators have a date with Vegas tonight, so the Hawks can jump over them tonight if results go their way.

They should be seeing an ornery team, as the Yotes returned from their bye earlier in the week and promptly only took one point out of four against hanging curveballs Anaheim and LA. They would have looked at this three in four as a spot to really cement their status as playoff contenders, but could be looking at truly biffing it if they lose to the Hawks. And this isn’t a team that should be overflowing with confidence, given their history of fading into the background consistently.

Injuries have been an issue, most notably with Darcy Kuemper missing weeks as he was the anchor to this team. He won’t return tonight but is due back very soon, probably their next game. Without him, the Yotes’ weaknesses are much more easily exposed, as Antti Raanta and Adin “Silent” Hill have been hardly worth writing songs about. Those weaknesses are pretty much they can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo. They don’t score much, they don’t possess the puck much, and they’re barely a middling defensive team. If you dismiss Oliver Ekman-Larsson as a “Yeah, but who gives a shit?” guy, there really isn’t a star anywhere on this team. Phil Kessel was brought in to be that, but much like the story he’s getting old now.

Taylor Hall was then brought in to be what Kessel might not be able to be anymore, and he’s put up 16 points in 18 games as a Yote. He gives them what should be something like two scoring lines, as Keller and Kessel are on the other one. But Keller has one point in nine, and Kessel is a few months away from doing ads for The General car insurance. They’re depending a lot on Hall, Dvorak, and Garland, though the top line of Keller-Stepan-Kessel has been possession-mutants.

Defensively, without OEL there isn’t really an advanced puck-mover here. Chychrun chips in goals with a booming shot but it’s not really what he does. Alex Goligoski is getting up there in age. Maybe Ilya Lubishkin, but he’s no guarantee for the lineup. OEL is a miss, whatever you consider him.

To the Hawks. Just about everyone other than the long-term casualties is reporting for duty, as it looks like Dylan Strome is going to make the post. That leaves the Hawks just one winger short of a pretty keen “3+1” model, with Dach at least getting limited looks between Kane and Saad and Top Cat reuniting with Strome. Kampf will continue to try and square-shape into that round hole as the other winger on that line for now. No word yet on which goalie will start but considering the way Crawford was playing and the way Lehner kind of had a hiccup that almost made him barf against Florida, the money is on Crow.

You can count on the Coyotes to try hard, because they have to, and because they’re coming off two disappointing results. You can probably expect a pretty scratchy first period from the Hawks, as they try and figure out how their legs and arms work again and get timing down. So really, just wading through the first 20-30 minutes is the order of the day, and then if things are still tied or in one goal the Hawks can begin to find their game. They’ll have to be tight with the puck in the offensive end, because this Arizona team will be looking to spring on them and away from them at the first sign of a turnover.

This is a big month, as February doesn’t tend to be. The schedule is very road-heavy, but that’s suited the Hawks better all season. Most games are against teams around them or below them. If you’re a part of this, then be a part of this. Otherwise, stop wasting our time.

Hockey

The Case For Not Re-Signing Robin Lehner

By Sam Fels 1912 0

This is something that probably will, and definitely should, go on the back-burner while the Hawks are in a playoff chase. There are more important issues and you don’t want the distraction. Which probably makes it more likely the Hawks, in their infinite wisdom, will ink Lehner to an extension before the end of the season, either to juice the buzz inside and outside the team as they try and chase down a spot or as a feel-good makeup when they fall short. You’ve already heard the push for it, and you know how they operate.

It shouldn’t be a priority at all. And it probably shouldn’t happen at all.

And it really doesn’t have much to do with Lehner. The simple numbers don’t add up. As of right now, the Hawks only have $10M in cap space for next season right now. With a minimal cap raise, maybe it’s $12M. There are a couple things the Hawks can do to open up more space, such as buying out Olli Maatta, which would only count about $800K against the cap next year. Maybe they actually do have a plan to deport Brent Seabrook into retirement/orbit, which obviously opens up another $6.8M. Do all those things, and the Hawks would suddenly have $22M. Hey, maybe Andrew Shaw retires and you get even more. If all those things happen, then re-signing Lehner makes some sense.

But it’s not that simple. Both Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik are due for big raises (and Caggiula might earn a small one). You would have to imagine they come in at at least $9M combined. If Lehner gets the $7M per year or more that he’s looking for, suddenly your $22M in space has become $6M in space, and you still need another d-man and at least one winger. And a backup goalie, and not just some stooge but one who can play 25-30 games because Lehner has never taken on a full starter’s load and that’s not really a thing teams are looking for these days.

Now, play this out differently. It would depend on how Corey Crawford finishes the season, so keep that in mind. But at 36, it’s unlikely that Crow is going to get more than the $6M he gets now, and it’s unlikely he’ll get more than a one- or two-year deal. Say you can Crow back for $4M, and then bring in someone like Cam Talbot for $3M-$4M (who has flourished in a partner/backup role this year). Now you’ve got two goalies for the same price as one Lehner, along with flexibility down the line which is not something the Hawks have had a lot of this past decade.

And maybe you’ve got space for a Tyson Barrie or Sami Vatanen or Toffoli or Kreider, which this team still needs. The only thing through the system that might join up next year and boost the team is Ian Mitchell, and that hardly seems a sure thing. Now if he signs and your top four is Keith, Mitchell, Boqvist, Murphy, that’s a nice start, but pushing Mitchell down do the third-pairing in his rookie year with de Haan is even better. And this team still needs one more winger, and might need another forward anywhere if they decide Kirby Dach’s presence makes Strome expendable (longshot but impossible).

As for Lehner himself, there seems to be a reason he’s on his fourth team. Or there should be, when he’s had exemplary seasons with each of the first three. He was traded from the Senators after after a step-back .905 SV% season, but that was after a .913. The Sabres let him walk after another .908, but that was after a .920. You know the story with the Islanders. And you know he’s not settling for another one-year deal.

Gone is the time when you can win with some stiff in net, and the Hawks were the last to do it in 2010 and there are still far too many around town who think that’s how things still work. So you can’t just ignore the position. However, you also have to have the team in front of it, and the Hawks aren’t going anywhere until they ask their goalies to do less than they are now. And it’s going to be awfully hard to do that paying Lehner what he wants and has pretty much earned now.

If the Hawks had more prospects coming through that would do that for cheap for years, then you could justify committing so much to one goalie. But they don’t. This is the way.

Hockey

The Road Ahead

By Sam Fels 1670 0

Fair warning, I’ve just finished The Road by Cormac McCarthy so anything referencing a road might cause me to throw myself out the window in the middle of this blog. You’ll get to trace it though, so that’ll be fun.

The Hawks will return to practice tomorrow and then to game action on Saturday, and they really won’t get much of a chance to play their way back into top form. They’re still three points out of a playoff spot, with only Winnipeg to leap, but basically everyone in and around the wild card spots will play another game before the Hawks get back to it on Saturday night. Which means the Hawks will have games in hand on most, but those only matter if you win them.

So how does it stack up? Right now, the West’s last wildcard holder is on a 90-point pace (still very sad). The Hawks are on about an 87-point one, and it took them winning 11 of 16 to even get to that. So to get to 90 points, the Hawks will need 36 points from 31 games, which would be a 95-point pace. And that’s if you believe that the target won’t arc up a bit, which you would think it would just a touch.

You would be tempted to go through the schedule, but that’s kind of folly for hockey because individual games come up weird. Your goalie has a bad night or theirs has a great night or you hit three posts in a period or something. As you look at it now, February does look like it’s a good runway, as the only games against the league’s glitterati are one against St. Louis, one against Boston at home, and one against Tampa. The rest are either against teams the Hawks are around in the standings are also-rans like the Ducks or Rangers. Essentially the Hawks have it all in front of them this month. They can play their way right into the thick of it or they can play themselves right out of it.

March looks even tastier, with the Ducks, Wings, Sharks, Senators, two against the Wild, Kings, and Canadiens all on the docket mixed in with tougher games. That’s the kind of slate you’d like when you’re competing for something, especially as some of those teams if not all will be stripped for parts by then.

So can the Hawks keep this pace up? We’d like to see things trending that way, so let’s et graphical!

Here are the rolling five-game averages for their CF% (blue) and xG% (red):

So those are going up. Their xG% ends at 53% and has been in the upper 40s for the last seven, but have been under 45% most of the season. Their average Corsi has been over 50% for the past nine. Again, small samples but at least trending the right way in five-game averages. They’ll have to keep going to get to the 90-point mark.

Of course, with the Hawks it’s about their defense. So here’s their five-game rolling average of Corsi against per 60:

And their xGA/60 rolling five game aveage:

Again, trending down, which is good. Still, since December 1st, when the Hawks have picked up their games somewhat, they rank 26th in Corsi against at evens and 30th in xGA/60 against. So their trendlines might just be part of a league-wide belt-tightening, which we see every season as scoring goes down as the season goes on and people don’t care as much. The numbers are no better from January 1st on, so it’s hard to see how the Hawks can be this bad defensively and remain competing for the playoffs. They’ll need those trendlines to continue to go the ways they have been the past couple weeks, let’s say.

Still, as we said before the break, there’s probably a Debrincat binge waiting, and the power play will spasm a good couple weeks you’d think for no reason other than HOCKEY! So it’s hardly out of the question the Hawks can defy their defensive averages or rates a little longer.

Hockey

Game #51 – Panthers vs. Hawks Spotlight: Q

By Sam Fels 1682 0

There’s little point in talking about anyone else.

It’s a sad commentary on Chicago sports as a whole that Joel Quenneville’s only peer in success around here is Phil Jackson. That’s it. That’s all you get. The only other coach to win multiple championships is George Halas, and seeing as how none of them were Super Bowls no one really gives a flying fuck. Or anyone who did is dead. Even if you were to expand this list to coaches that have brought just one championship downtown, it’s three names: Guillen, Maddon, Ditka. How pathetic is that? Hell, if you wanted to add the names of coaches who even just got their teams to a championship round, it’s just two more: Smith and Keenan. Lord, what a place.

Anyway, there won’t be a solitary angle that isn’t covered tonight by Q’s return to Chicago. And that’s probably as it should be. For all the shit we give the Hawks hierarchy, and most of it is deserved, you have to still hand it to them for the swift and ruthless decision to not waste a second of time with the most promising roster in franchise history on a coach who didn’t know what he was doing and bringing in an expert. Had they waited even a half-season, maybe the Hawks don’t rocket up the standings in ’09 and make a conference final run that showed them what it would take. Maybe ’09-’10 is more of a developmental year than an all-systems-go one. Considering the cap problems (of their own making), if they don’t win in ’10, the whole thing could be so, so different.

Quenneville came in and immediately recognized that his team needed to play at a pace no one else, or at least only a handful of teams, could. Savard probably knew this but didn’t have any idea on how to implement that. The stories of practice being hellishly paced but short immediately started leaking out, with players being made to do laps for being last to huddles or drills. Speed, speed, speed. This is how everything will be done. Can’t argue with the results.

The funny thing is it was the same way at the end, and it still couldn’t save Q’s job. After he got done pouting about the trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson, Q seemed to be the only one in the whole organization who realized his team wasn’t nearly fast enough. He still might be. That’s why he immediately installed Henri Jokiharju on the top pairing. That’s why he was actually toying with keeping Adam Boqvist around last year. He knew the problems that were ahead and these were the only solutions available. Hawks could use more eyes like his now, still.

That begs the question of whether it was right to fire him. Separate it from the hiring of Colliton, and you’d still conclude it probably was. No matter how good things go, if you show up to work and hear the same voice as your boss for 11 years, you get sick of it. The Hawks core seemed to accept that, even if they didn’t particularly like it. Certainly the younger players weren’t all that upset, but going back that far how many of them actually mattered? DeBrincat and…yeah, that’s it. Schmaltz is gone. Hinostroza is gone. Jokiharju is gone. Hartman is gone. Give you some idea of the directionless nature of the whole operation when they fired a coach partly because they didn’t think he was treating their young players well, and then they get rid of almost all of those young players.

But tonight isn’t really about that, nor is it about the litany of complaints we came up with during Q’s reign here. It’s about all the things he did that worked, not the crazy experiments or juggling or Trevor van Riemsdyk. It’s about letting a young team letting it all hang out with just the boundaries of a defensive structure in ’09 and ’10. It’s about dragging a hungover and barely focused team in ’11 to the cusp of a huge upset.  It’s about surviving the first clash of coach and GM in 2012 and Toews missing half the season and Crawford’s dip in form and revitalizing both the following season into an unholy beast of a team. It’s about turning Johnny Oduya and Hjalmarsson into the best rhythm guitarists in the league for three years. Even though it took a Daniel Carcillo injury to even get Brandon Saad into the lineup, it was then about a Saad-Toews-Hossa line that no one could do much about.

Yeah, we’re still angry about sending out Handzus and Bollig for the last faceoff of ’14. Van Riemsdyk, again. Insisting on veteran help for the ’16 team that cost the Hawks Phillip Danault. And then not playing that veteran help. The policy of bringing back players he already trusted. It’s all of it, really.

At the end of the day though, it’s three parades (almost four). Three celebrations. Three impossible journeys negotiated, each with varying challenges. Perhaps Q’s greatest strength as a coach was the confidence and relaxed nature he instilled in the Hawks at the most tense times. The ’09 team blew its first road playoff games against a veteran team. They simply mauled the Flames from there. They trailed the Canucks in ’09 after Game 1, Game 3, and were four minutes away from being down 3-1. No problem. Strut into Vancouver for the biggest game of their lives and gleefully walk out with a win. Wasn’t even that hard.

The ’10 team was down 1-0 and two goals against Vancouver. Never looked bothered and essentially blew the Canucks out of the water from there on out. Lost a 2-0 lead in the Final. Win Game 5 by five goals. Three minutes from the Cup and lose the lead in Game 6. No matter, get it in overtime.

The list of this keeps going. Down 3-0 and quite frankly overmatched? Push to the absolute limit. Watching the most dominant season in team history nearly washed away by your oldest enemy? Win the next three, including coming back in the 3rd in Game 6 facing elimination and then overcoming an egregiously bad call in Game 7. Crow has one bad game in the Final? Who gives a shit, we’ll get it anyway.

Down to four d-men in ’15? They’ll find a way through. Everyone’s dying of exhaustion? We’ll hold the Lighting to two goals over three games.

There wasn’t ever a challenge that not only the Hawks didn’t think they could overcome, but they thought was even a big deal. Everything was an opportunity. A chance to do something great. That was Q’s biggest credit. Making this team that had accomplished nothing believe it could do anything instantly, and then would do anything because it had to be done. That was probably the most enjoyable part. No obstacle too high or ditch to deep. Q’s team would find the way, because it’s what they did.

Beyond all the line shuffling or arguments with Stan Bowman or hunches he had to play, that was his ultimate feature. And we were all rewarded. We’ll owe him forever for that.

TVR still sucks though, Q.

Hockey

Patrick Kane At 1,000 Points

By Sam Fels 2719 0

The following two threads can be and are true.

1. Patrick Kane is the best Hawk I’ve ever seen play. 

In my personal ranking it’s not all that close, and I’m not sure the actual discussion in general about whether or not he’s the best Hawk ever should be that complicated either, once you start adjusting for eras played in. 1,000 points now is harder than it’s ever been.

It’s funny to say that now, because during his rookie year, while he was steaming toward the Calder Trophy it was widely accepted and thought amongst scouts, GMs, and most fans that while Kane would win the Rookie Of The Year, maybe a scoring title or two (though a lot also thought he was too small to hold up over 82 games to ever do that), it would be Jonathan Toews who would rack up the Hart Trophies and Conn Smythes and be the biggest reason the Hawks would go on to win Cups.

You could certainly argue that neither are the biggest reason the Hawks won Cups (hello, Duncan Keith), which then would make an argument for Keith as the greatest Hawk ever. I wouldn’t put up too much of a fight there, but the recent years where Keith has declined (he is five years older to be fair) and Kane seemingly hasn’t lost anything probably splits it for their careers and their careers only. But what was predicted 12 years ago certainly never came to pass.

As I said in my book (which you should totally buy!) I’ve known Kane was special since the first time I saw him in the ’07 WJC, when I’d actually tuned in to watch Toews for the first time. I knew he was special from his first game in Minnesota, when even at 18 and not nearly strong enough the game bent around him every time he had the puck (though the Hawks didn’t score that night). It’s been a privilege to watch such talent for this long, essentially. Keith may have had higher highs and more important roles, Toews may have been the foundation to it all, but neither were or are capable of the moments of pure inspiration. Both Keith and Toews changed games, series, and seasons through work or ability. Kane always seemed to just conjure something beyond imagination. There’s brilliance and then there’s genius.

And while all three of them have Conn Smythes now (only Keith really deserved his, and he probably should go take Toews’s as well), it’s a fair measure of just how equally they all meant. Keith may have been the platform, but who was the executioner? It was Kane who ended the wait, it was Kane who shifted to center in Toews’s absence in 2012 to keep that team afloat. It was Kane who put the Kings to bed in ’13 and then came up with two goals in a pivotal Game 5 against Boston. It was Kane who singlehandedly nearly dragged a flagging Hawks team past the Kings in ’14 when Toews couldn’t escape Kopitar. It was Kane who clinched the last one, and it’s Kane who went on to somehow get better.

Some of that was definition of roles. It was Toews’s job for the last three years of the run to basically play mine-sweeper, so that the Hawks’ greater depth could shine through. Notice in ’13 it was the fourth line scoring the famous goal and in ’15 it was the third line doing most of the heavy lifting, along with Keith. So Toews does set up Kane a touch in that sense. But that doesn’t explain it all, nor anywhere close.

As McClure likes to say, in this city the list of “killers” when it mattered most are Michael Jordan and Patrick Kane, and that’s really about it. I can’t think of a higher praise than that.

2. Patrick Kane made me hate being a Hawks fan. 

It’s not all on him, of course. It was mostly on his most fervent fans, of which I used to be. But everything that surrounded the summer of ’15 caused me to turn on everything I’d loved, and quit this job (which McClure and Feather would talk me out of). Suddenly something I’d felt so a part of that I was inspired to start something for it and was lucky enough to see it actually work, made me sick. I felt alien. I felt ostracized and robbed of something that had meant so much.

I don’t know what happened that night in Buffalo any more than anyone else. Looking back with the benefit of time, there are things that seem pretty fishy about it. But what I also knew then and still know now is that what we did know about Patrick Kane the person, there was no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. And from what we knew about him, if it wasn’t that night, it could easily have been another night here or somewhere else, and you don’t have to dig that deep anywhere to find Roethlisberger stories about him from that time.

There are still plenty of people I know, and some very close to me, who have yet to watch another Hawks game since all that. They’re not many, but they’re out there, and I completely understand. It was everything ugly in sports and sports fandom not just coming up for air, but being thrown in our face. I think about the original standing ovation in South Bend (what a perfect location) and my stomach still bubbles a bit. What were they cheering, exactly?

Did I handle everything with aplomb back then? Not even close. But I don’t regret anything I said or wrote about, because it was something I believed and still believe in. I wish I could have handled it with more grace and more eloquently laid out how sexual assault cases work the world over and maybe make a few more understand instead of just trying to match the vitriol. But it was still the right position to take.

I wouldn’t say time has healed the wounds so much as scabbed them over. It’s easier to watch Kane play now than it was in ’15-’16, when his MVP season not only seemed to be goals for the Hawks but scoring points for the Barfstool and the like crowd and something of a stab wound every time. I don’t feel that way now, but there are moments where it’s still uncomfortable. The whitewashing of it all in most people’s minds still irks me, even if it’s not as much as before. Seeing either kids or grown adults in #88 jerseys still gives me pause, as I can’t be sure it’s not just admiration for the player but also a middle finger to anyone who would think about him in a broader context. They’re still out there, too.

And maybe that’s not on him personally, just the crowd that came running to his defense. Maybe Kane’s different now than he was then. Maybe actually seeing the possibility of losing it all changed his ways. I don’t really care anymore. My guess is that the Hawks are better at hiding it and keeping him on lockdown, but nothing would surprise me. Getting into your 30s changes everyone.

I’ve found it a little strange there’s never been a whisper of Kane being a malcontent on a team that was no longer at his level. Maybe he really likes it here and wants to be part of a turnaround. Or maybe he fears another team wouldn’t cover for him the way the Hawks have. Or maybe he fears the skeletons might come out of the closet if he moves on. Maybe he knows no other team could take on his contract either way. Maybe the Hawks would never consider it. Maybe it’s all of it.

I have gotten back to enjoying his play on the ice, occasionally still being amazed, but it’s still weighted a bit. I’m not the fan I was, and probably won’t be again, though maybe that’s just a product of age and getting better at seeing the whole picture everywhere.

He’s the best I’ve seen, and the most transformational as well. In every sense of the word.

 

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 1/20: Top Top, Top Of The Pops

By Sam Fels 1629 0

The Dizzying Highs

The Top Line: We don’t usually split this but what’re you gonna do? It’s hard to talk about Jonathan Toews without Domink Kubalik, considering they piled up 15 points and eight goals in just four games together. Toews especially has been delirious, with 42 points in 39 games. That doesn’t mean his possession-dominance has returned, but when he’s piling up the points that seems a bit nitpick-y. And he definitely domed whatever the Leafs threw at him on Saturday, which is always nice. Reports of his demise, some of which were authored by me in October, were obviously greatly exaggerated.

Kubalik is yet another showcase of the Hawks’ European scouting, and hopefully this time they don’t cash him in for a plodding, third-pairing d-man. Kubalik’s success of course makes the offseason even trickier, as if he does get to 30 goals then you can’t just hand him $2.5M and tell him to take it as they were probably hoping, even as a restricted free agent. But we’ll save that for May and June and whatever. No, he’s not going to shoot 30% for the rest of the year as he has this week, but it’s clear he is something of a ruthless finisher and also has a sense of how to get open.

The Terrifying Lows

No One? – It’s hard to pick someone out when you go 4-0 during the week and do it to the tune of 18-7 in the aggregate. So yeah, Drake Caggiula’s four penalties last night weren’t ideal, but who cares? Kirby Dach could be scoring more, but then he goes and does that last night and you see what might be possible down the road very quickly. The power play still hasn’t really chimed in yet, and the hope was Boqvist would goose it a bit more. But when you’re killing every penalty and finishing at evens at the rate the Hawks are, it’s not a big deal. That’s why Quenneville never really cared about the power play.

So maybe we’ll set it at the hype for tomorrow night’s game, which we’ll cover in-depth tomorrow. You know it’s going to get a little out of hand, but the video package is probably going to bring a tear to everyone’s eye. And frankly, I’m crying too much these days (though usually out of joy thanks to Gini Wijnaldum).

The Creamy Middles

Corey Crawford – While the headline has been how good the Hawks goaltending has been, the truth is that most of that has been Robin Lehner. Corey, who I will always defend and root for and am basically going to be the leading voice stating he should be the one kept and not Lehner next season, has only been all right at best. He flashed the form we know and love earlier in the season, but that went away. And even with these two great performances in Montreal and Toronto he’s only at .910 for the year, which is not the standard he’s set. And maybe he can’t get there again, but I don’t necessarily believe that.

I had thought he was still adjusting to splitting starts. But he got a row of them when Lehner had a bit of a knee-knack, and his performance against Detroit and Nashville were…iffy. Earlier in the year when he got a stretch of starts for the only other time, he was much better in Vegas and in Pittsburgh. Maybe he still hasn’t quite come to terms with the gaps between appearances. Now he’ll likely go two or more weeks.

Still, the Hawks will need him. And they’ll need him to be really good. It’s still there. I know it. And it’s more satisfying when we see it from him.

Hockey

Game #50 – Jets 2, Hawks 5:

By Sam Fels 2084 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Funny, on a night when the Hawks finally defeated a direct competitor for the playoffs, it won’t even grab the headlines. And maybe that’s the way they want it. They’ll have to do it more than a few more times between here and April, but every journey begins with one step. On the second of a back-to-back, where the Hawks have been strangely dominant, against a Jets team that should give them problems (though they have far more of their own), the Hawks not only got the win but eased to it.

I’m not saying you should get excited, but if you want to start at least inching that way, go right ahead. Maybe the bye comes at the wrong time for them.

Of course, none of this is why it’s a historic night. Let’s get to it.

The Two Obs

-The headline will be Patrick Kane reaching 1,000 points, and it should be. I have more than a few tangled thoughts about it, which I’ll get to tomorrow. But we should probably start labeling him, rightly, as the best the organization has ever had. Again, more tomorrow.

-I mentioned in the preview that a big reason that the Hawks have ripped this off is that they’ve settled the bottom of the roster a bit better. Koekkoek and Maatta have gelled on the third pairing, and while neither are world-beaters or even definite NHL players, they’re better options than both Dennis Gilbert or Brent Seabrook right now (sorry, it hurts to say, but it’s true). Both were once again above water in possession tonight, and it’s a bigger deal than you might think to not have to run for the bomb shelter for 12-15 minutes a night when you toss out your third pairing.

To boot tonight, the fourth line came up with two goals, and you’re going to win most times that happens.

-Not a night Keith and Boqvist will want to hang on the wall, as they’re going to struggle with the size the Jets boast. Whatever, they got through it.

-Flip side, Kirby Dach’s line had a great night, capped by Kampf’s goal. Kampf still is wildly a fish out of water playing as a wing on a scoring line but let’s leave that aside for tonight as his goal was the result of what Kirby Dach can be. A 150-foot rush where he looked pretty springy and got to the net and at least caused a rebound. The Hawks have shown the proper patience with Dach even though he hasn’t scored in ages, and you hope tonight’s performance is something he can build on. Certainly fatigue has to be playing a role and the bye will do him good. Wouldn’t mind seeing Caggiula on his line in the future as he’s a puck-retriever who isn’t lost on a scoring line, but that’s another discussion for another time.

-Didn’t notice Patrik Laine until the goalie was pulled. It seems the Jets have done and are doing just about everything they can to bend the team around him, and he’s still giving second-line production. The dude might just be a passenger. Wouldn’t be shocked to hear trade rumors this summer.

-Also their defense blows, and if you miss Tucker Poolman or an aged and swelling Byfuglien that much I can’t help you.

-It would be easy to go pessimistic about this streak–pointing out that the Leafs were about to be on their bye, or that the Ducks, Habs, and Sens suck out loud, or that the Jets are a mess–but these were five games the Hawks had to have. And they got them. They’re still three points out, but now have no other teams to leap. They probably have to play at this pace for a long while to stay in it. But you have to believe there will be a Top Cat binge somewhere around here. And probably the power play will have a good few weeks just because. The goalies will always provide a high floor. And while I’d still bet the Knights and likely the Preds to eventually  zoom up the standings, i wouldn’t count on any of the Yotes or Oilers or Canucks to get too far away from the Hawks either.

Basically it’s not going to take acts of God to keep the Hawks at least in it until the end of the season. And hey, it’s more fun and interesting when there’s something riding on the games. So let’s have some fun.

Hockey

Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview: Arkham City

By Sam Fels 1279 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 22-20-6   Maple Leafs 25-16-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network

ALL DAY: Pension Plan Puppets 

We’ve been doing this all season. The Hawks string together two or three wins, generally over bad teams, and look good in at least one of them, and a part of you wants to believe that something has clicked and just might go on a run to make the season interesting. They’re only four points out of a playoff spot, with only one team between them and that last wildcard spot, and you don’t even have to squint all that hard to make a case they could make a run at it. Especially when they’re chasing the Oilers, who are more guaranteed to have their intestines fall out than the Hawks. Vancouver and Arizona could also still make a thud.

And then usually they get thwacked by a good team and we start this all over.

So that’s what feels like is about to happen tonight, as the Hawks take their three wins against the Ducks, Sens, and Habs up against a real team. And the Leafs are the fully operational annoyance that they were forecasted to be. Casting off the shackles of Mike Babcock has had the effect that Kyle Dubas would have hoped, as Sheldon Keefe has helped everyone realize their joy again. The Leafs are more threatening, more dynamic, and quite a bit more scary now that Keefe has allowed them to “try shit.”

Which shouldn’t have been all that hard. The Leafs still have perhaps the richest array of offensive talent in the league. There certainly isn’t a team that can match Matthews-Tavares down the middle at 1-2, and Alex Kerfoot has enjoyed the sweetheart spot that used to belong to Nazem Kadri. Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen certainly don’t lessen the threat on the wings. If they’re on song, they can put up a touchdown on you before you’ve finished your Timbo’s.

But the problems for the Leafs are still the same, and they’re exacerbated now. Both Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin are out for weeks with a broken foot each, and this wasn’t a great defense to begin with. It’s lead them to give Travis Dermott top pairing minutes, and use Tyson Barrie as a defensive specialist, neither of which is a path you’d choose lest your life depended on it. Keefe has at least kept Cody Ceci away from the top pairing.

And the goalie is far from sure either. The Leafs haven’t had a solid backup all season, as you saw evidenced by Michael Hutchinson KICK-ing every puck into his own net here in Chicago last time they met (get it?). But Fab Five Freddie Andersen has been bad for six weeks now, partly due to exhaustion. Also he’s Freddie Andersen, which is the definition of “just good enough to break your heart.”

For the Hawks, Brandon Saad could suit up tonight, but that’s looking like a gametime decision. Brandon Hagel could make his NHL debut after being Rockford’s leading scorer. With optional morning skates we’re guessing along with all of you. Corey Crawford will get the start, with Lehner taking the back half of the double tomorrow night at home against Winnipeg.

Once again, the Hawks have risen to at least the discussion of a playoff spot. But now they’ll be facing two teams that are either good or competing with them for that spot, and it’s a spot where they’ve generally fallen flat on their face. The Leafs aren’t invulnerable here, given the state of their defense and Andersen’s level right now. But getting into a track meet with this team almost certainly equals death, and yet the Hawks don’t have the structure generally to keep things tight. They did so for most of the game against the JV version of the Leafs in Montreal, but this is the real thing.

They were able to hilariously add on to a Leafs crisis last year in T.O, even though Duncan Keith did his best to ruin all that work. It’s a big stretch here on the weekend and then Quenneville Bowl on Tuesday. The Hawks have to put it together now, so five of six points is minimum before we even consider believing they can actually take this to the wire.

Plus, beating the Leafs is always fun.

Hockey

Angry At Numbers – Penalty Kill Edition

By Sam Fels 1687 0

Whenever the job-reaper comes for Jeremy Colliton, be it the middle of the season, in the summer, or never, he’s going to try and mount some defense if only to make himself more attractive for another job down the road. He doesn’t want to be Trent Yawney, y’know? And the first thing, maybe the only thing, he can point to as something that’s improved markedly from his first year to his second is the penalty kill.

The Hawks currently are in the top-1o on the PK, which is a drastic improvement on the historically bad unit that befouled arenas and our TV sets last year. Now it would be easy to dismiss this improvement as merely and improvement in goaltending, and you can’t ignore that.

This year the SV% on the kill is .892, third-best in the league. Last year it was .842, which was sixth-worst in the league. So yes, that’s a big difference. But it’s not only that.

Overall, there are other improvements however. This year, the Hawks are giving up 97.4 attempts per 60 on the kill. Their xGA/60 on the kill is 6.33. Last year, those numbers were 104.5 and 8.1. Now, it’s hard to visualize or really understand those numbers, but a 25% reduction in expected goals against certainly is noticeable. The attempts against moves them from third-worst last year to middle of the pack this year, even if a reduction in attempts of merely 6% doesn’t really register.

If it helps, the Hawks have gone from giving up 63 shots per 60 minutes on the kill to 56 now, which directly mirrors the attempts they’re giving up. So it’s not like they’re blocking shots that much more often, they’re not even giving the lanes to shoot. Which is good.

On an individual level, there’s been improvement both in new players brought in and an uptick from those that were already here:

xGA/60  This Year/Last Year

Connor Murphy – 6.35/7.89

Duncan Keith – 7.62/8.94

David Kampf – 7.4/9.54

Jonathan Toews – 6.00/8.96

What has also helped is the players who weren’t here. Where Brent Seabrook led the team in shorthanded time-on-ice last year, that’s been replaced, or was, by Calvin de Haan. Ryan Carpenter in for the declining Marcus Kruger. Olli Maatta has replaced Carl Dahlstrom and Seabrook, and the one thing Maatta has been good at is on the kill.

Speaking of Seabrook, it’s time to be mean.

86.1/101.3   5.06/6.76

Those are the differences in the Hawks PK’s CA/60 and xGA/60 after and before Seabrook was put on the shelf for the season. It’s only been 14 games, and any special team can go on a run for 14 games. I’M NOT SAYIN’ I’M JUST SAYIN’….

So yeah, the goalies certainly have made a difference, but Colliton can claim to improved the overall system on the kill, and they certainly aren’t giving up shots from the middle nearly as much and are pushing things to the sides at a slower pace so they can get in the lanes. That’s something. It’s not enough but it’s something.

Some others…

37 in 37 (in a row?)

That’s Jonathan Toews the past 37 games. We almost forgot that he only had two points in the first 11 games, where we really started to worry if he’d lost a step. He definitely was a half-step behind the play more than we’d ever seen before. And now he’s been averaging a point-per-game for nearly half a season, and is on pace for 66 points which would be just about what you’d expect. If he were to continue to be a point-per-game, it would be 73. And it’s surprising because A) he’s not lighting it up on the PP like he was last year and B) he hasn’t really been playing with any offensive dynamo. Saad and Kubalik are certainly not bad players, but they aren’t the dynamic forces that Kane or DeBrincat can be. So yeah, we’ll never worry again…until next October, obvi.

 

Hockey

Game #48: Hawks 4, Canadiens 1 – Insert Spiderman Meme Here

By Rose Rankin 2193 0

We know exactly what it feels like to be what the Habs were tonight…dominant in possession yet unable to capitalize on the power play and losing to a mediocre team. The difference is, the Hawks have excellent goaltending and Montreal most certainly did not. Although Crawford (great as he was) isn’t the only story tonight. Some fourth-line luck and decent special teams work did what they’re supposed to do, and were enough for a win. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–It’s hard to believe I’m writing this, but Zack Smith was the difference-maker tonight, proving that there really is a first time for everything. But hey, good for him, right? Early in the first, he and Drake Caggiula took advantage of Charlie Lindgren being Charlie Lindgren when there was a bad turnover behind the Habs net on the PK, and it resulted in Smith scoring a short-handed goal. Then Smith potted another (even strength) goal barely three minutes later, and it was undoubtedly the best period of his life. It’s easy to laugh at the situation, or laugh at the Habs for letting this bum score twice on them, but honestly it was downright refreshing to have someone different step up and score. Especially with this being the second of a back-to-back, having the fourth line eat up some minutes and be productive while doing so was exactly what was needed.

–Related: when Drake Caggiula scores on you, you suck. Sorry, Lindgren, but it’s true.

–On the other hand, Dominik Kubalik suddenly couldn’t buy a goal, and not for lack of trying. He had three shots, all of which would have been easy goals, well, last night or any game in the last little stretch here. They were those point-blank shots that make you wonder how it couldn’t possibly have gone in because given the laws of physics, it would seem much more likely that the puck would go in rather than stay out. In fact the top line as a whole struggled to find the back of the net, and it was when Caligula moved off the top line that he did end up scoring. It’s really not a big deal (who gives a shit if they don’t score in one game?), but my concern is that Coach Cool Youth Pastor will use this as proof that Kubalik-Toews-Kane isn’t the right combo for the top line because they didn’t score in the .02 seconds they had on the ice together. But here goes dumb ‘ole Caggiula scoring so he’ll be back on the top line by Saturday.

–Adam Boqvist had a couple nice plays, although the stats were rather ugly for the night. In the first period he saved a goal when Crawford got lost in space and couldn’t make it back to the far post in time, and it was a good keep by Boqvist at the blue line that set up Top Cat’s power play goal in the second. He flashed some speed but finished with a miserable 24 CF%, so cherry pick whatever you want from that information. Our other tender-age star, Kirby Dach, had a no-good very bad game. In the first, he broke his stick on an power play attempt, right in the slot and you could practically hear the sad trombone sound, and he followed it up by taking a penalty a few seconds later to negate the advantage for the Hawks. Even beyond that, he fumbled shots, and his line with DeBrincat and Kampf only managed a 38 CF% at evens. Like the top line, it was nothing to get upset about–both Boqvist and Dach are going to have games like this–but it’s becoming worrisome that Dach has struggled for a couple weeks because he needs confidence and decent coaching at this impressionable stage. Right now he seems to be sorely lacking both.

–Corey Crawford was outstanding as usual in Montreal. Admittedly he looked a little shaky in the first, particularly when he fell on his ass behind the net, all by himself, but it obviously only injured his pride. Losing his net when Boqvist had to bail him out was also concerning, but when it mattered most he was lights-out. He finished with a .970 SV%, and the one goal he did give up came in the midst of the Habs completely running over the Toews line, in one of the stretches where it felt like the Hawks were dispossessed for hours at a time (there were many of these). For all the Habs’ dominance in possession, he was up to the task the rest of the time with a number of excellent saves, and overcame some rebound issues early on. People can sing Lehner’s praises all they want, but Crawford is god.

–It was good to see DeBrincat score, especially on a power play. Nothing earth-shattering, but let’s take what we can get.

So far, so good on this road trip. Or train trip, which the broadcast wouldn’t shut the fuck up about. They honestly sounded like old-timey boosters describing the wonders of the new iron horse, as if millions of people don’t take trains every damn day (and as if professional soccer teams in Europe don’t use them constantly to get to games). Dumbasses. But hey, wins are wins, so onward and upward…