Everything Else

Game #42 – Hawks vs. Senators Preview/Architectural Rendering: Kanata, ON. Doo Doo Do Do Do…

By Sam Fels 2010 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 20-15-6   Senators  14-17-9

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BULLSHIT BULLSHIT BULLSHIT: Brian 5or6

Well this seems like a momentous day for really weird reasons. We’ll get to that in a second. After getting to recalibrate their weapons by firing on the stationary target that is the Edmonton Oilers, the Hawks can double that up by doing so against the Eastern Conference version, the Ottawa Senators. And they may get to do it against a severely hampered Senators team, and believe me when I tell you this team didn’t have a lot to hamp. With the 2nd half of the season kicking off tonight, this would be a good way to get it started the right way. Then again, the Hawks couldn’t have started the first half off any better (TEN! TEN! TEN!), and look where that got them.

No reason to not start off with the biggest piece of news, and that is Brent Seabrook will be a healthy scratch tonight for the first time…well, ever. I don’t recall this happening in his rookie year, though it might have and we’ve just blocked most of that season from our memories. In fact, Seabrook has been something of a rock of durability, missing only 11 games in the ensuing 11 years since. But you can’t say that Seabrook hasn’t earned this, and the Hawks pairings would make a lot more sense if they looked something like:

Keith-Murphy

Forsling-Kempny

Oesterle-Rutta

Of course, that’s not what they’ll look like tonight as Oesterle will stay with Keith, the two kids together, and Kempny and Murphy returning to their natural sides on the second pairing. This way Q doesn’t have to rearrange three pairings. While Murphy took the blame for Friday’s loss unfairly, Seabrook has been this all season and now can’t even get the space to do the things he does well, i.e. shoot and pass. He’s been either slow or uncaring or both down low in his own zone, and that’s just not good enough. At the moment, he’s not one of the best six d-men the Hawks can send out there.

The hope is that this shows Seabrook that he’s not untouchable and has no guarantees. At almost 33, he’s never going to be what he was but he can certainly be more than he is. At that age he really should be able to handle third pairing or even sheltered second pairing minutes ok, and he hasn’t done that all season without Connor Murphy (CONNOR MURPHY!) saving his ass. Seabrook will draw back in soon, perhaps as soon as tomorrow, and there better be a fire under his ass when he does.

As for the rest of the lineup it looks like Tomas Jurco will be the forward scratched as the suddenly spiky Patrick Sharp sticks around.

None of this should matter of course, because the Senators are the NHL’s little league right fielder with the glove on his head twirling in a cirlce. They’re second-bottom in the East and three points adrift of the team above them, the Canadiens. And while this isn’t much of a roster outside Karlsson, it’s not helped by SUPER GENIUS Guy Boucher running a system suited for 1999 and boring the shit out of everyone involved. And the system doesn’t work when it’s not getting lights-out goaltending, and Craig Anderson is 36. This a team that doesn’t really have a top-liner anywhere unless you count Matt Duchene, and he’s basically a top line wing playing center and a really good rhythm guitarist at center instead of a lead.

Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman are great second line scoring wingers too, but now that Bobby Ryan is turning colors in the sun they need them to be first line scorers and that’s just not who they are. Karlsson can only do so much.

Making it even better for the Hawks tonight is that several Sens are either sick or hurt and gametime decisions. Duchene (you’re holdin’ up the show!), Oduya, Ceci, Brassard all might not make the bell tonight, though all could play as well. This is not a juggernaut. This team is bottom 10 in goals per game, goals against per game, and shot for per game. They do limit shots against them ok thanks to Boucher’s strangulation of anything interesting that might happen, but Anderson just hasn’t been up to the challenge of stopping the ones they do see. Again, 36.

No excuses here. The Hawks have to get this one, and they really have to sweep the week before the bye hits and teams pass or get farther away from them simply because they’re not playing. They’ve missed enough hanging curves of late with losses to Vancouver, blowing a lead against  Vegas when they had played the night before, and arguably missing the first 30 minutes against a wonky Calgary team. No more bullshit.

 

Game #42 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Grinds My Gears: Christmas Reset

By Sam Fels 2413 0

Hey all, it’s been a few days. Had a good break, I hope. Spent it with your family either arguing about minuscule stuff or just being drunk… and arguing about minuscule stuff. As Hawks fans, or just Hawks watchers, you even get an extra day before we dive right back into it all. Good thing, too. Anyway, thought it would be time to air all our previous grievances from before the break to see where we are. Post-Festivus, let’s say.

These will probably sound familiar to most of you, but hey, sometimes you can’t get blood from a turnip or stone or rock or whatever the fuck these freaks are trying to get blood from. Which is actually very weird. I don’t want blood. I’m not a fucking vampire. Fifth Feather, he’s the vampire wannabe.

BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

Basically, everything that follows is my complaints about how this team has been managed. And yes, I think Q has done a borderline shitty job this year after doing yeoman’s work the past two years, I would argue. Whether he has just nothing to work with (and I really don’t believe that), is still in a snit from watching pet projects Hjalmarsson and Panarin dealt, or quite simply just doesn’t quite care as much anymore, I have no idea. But here’s where he’s losing me:

-The distribution of zone starts to his defense. This has been the dead horse we’ve already turned into paste at this point. But to repeat: the two d-men who have taken the biggest percentage of their shifts starting in the defensive zone are Jan Rutta and Gustav Forsling. They also might double as the two worst defensive players on the Hawks blue line, though Seabrook or Franson could poke their head into the room and say, “Is that your final answer?” in some awful, CBS-sitcom fashion that this season has felt at times.

This is just plainly stupid. Despite the broadcast’s/organization’s Pravda-like spreading of the gospel of Forsling, he sucks in his own zone. Like, out loud. And that’s fine for now. That can take some time to learn, and especially when the Hawks have other options. Take Forsling’s use with that of Will Butcher’s on New Jersey. He and Forsling are about the same size, similar skill-set. Butcher almost never starts in his own zone, and has 23 points. Forsling has 12. You can’t tell me that Butcher is that much more talented than Forsling.

Q might sit here and say that Forsling and Rutta aren’t the only ones who need to be kept out of their own zone, that Seabrook and Franson need the help, too. That isn’t necessarily wrong, but A. Franson shouldn’t be playing that much and B. Seabrook’s bigger problems are in transition so maybe just planting him in his own zone where he doesn’t have to worry about streaking forwards or puck retrievals might actually be the safer plan.

Duncan Keith is still good. He can take it on. He can probably save Rutta from himself, which Forsling most certainly can’t. Or if you’re still in love with Connor Murphy on his off-side, you can pair him with Rutta. Because if Murphy can keep Seabrook from choking on a ham-bone, he certainly can do the same with Rutta. Or better yet get Kempny out of the doghouse and just let him play because he’s good and shoots himself in the face with a bazooka less than Forsling does.

-Nick Schmaltz is a center, Ryan Hartman is not. Yes, I know Hartman played some center in junior. Yes, I know that Q loves to come up with solutions out of nowhere to satisfy is giant, throbbing brain. But if the Hawks ever thought Hartman could play center at this level, they should have at least had him do it some of the time in Rockford. So not only are you asking him to play a spot he hasn’t as a pro, you’re also asking him to do it after four seasons of not.

I understand the problems with Schmaltz at center. He can’t win a draw, and he’s slight. And yet there he is on the penalty kill, so Q must think he’s not completely helpless defensively. Yes, I know Arty The One Man Party is kind of useless if he’s not playing with Kane, and that’s another problem. But the world is dying for Top Cat-Nick At Nite-Kane. Let us just see it for a game or two.

This gets into a larger, organizational discussion, because Vinnie Smalls was brought up to play center, except he hasn’t played center at Rockford all season. Does Q know this? Whatever the answer is, I don’t feel good about it. Imagine the Cubs or Sox bringing up an infielder and then sticking him in center without him ever playing there in the AAA. Yes yes, stick your Kyle Schwarber jokes here.

-Saad and Toews need a playmaker. This has been obvious all season. The three seasons we had of Saad-Toews-Hossa scoring simply because they willed it into being are gone. Hossa has leprosy, Toews just isn’t that player anymore. They’ll keep the puck in the right areas, they just need help making that count. We saw Top Cat on the left side for like two games, and then it was abandoned so he could return to playing with corpses. Give it five, give it ten, because if you don’t get Toews and Saad scoring regularly, we can just dock this showboat right now.

-Did they rush Crawford from injury? The easy way out of this is to say that decision is the Hawks medical staff’s and Crawford’s. And yet this would hardly be the first time we’ve seen this under Q. Well, now Crow is out again. I guess it was necessary for those games against Buffalo, Arizona, and Florida with how they went, but it shouldn’t have been.

Look, I get it. Q’s cards aren’t great. He has no third line because Patrick Sharp died and Richard Panik had the temerity to turn back into Richard Panik (by the way Josh Jooris is kicking ass for the Canes, and is younger, faster, and cheaper than Patrick Sharp. I’m just gonna sit here and cry). That’s forced the fourth line into harder assignments than you’d like. The defense is a bit mismatched, but Q’s making that worse.

The Hawks only sit one point out of a playoff spot and have games in hand on everyone. It’s hardly disaster, it’s just not where we’re used to being. But it it’s going to get better, removing head from anus is always a good start, as my father used to tell me regularly.

Everything Else

Game #35 – Devils 4 – Hawks 1: This Is Why The Devils Can Get Their Arms Around Me

By Sam Fels 2435 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Not exactly how you begin a road trip. While I didn’t think the Hawks were particularly bad on Thursday, certainly not to the point with which they were unlucky, they needed a response tonight before a break and the rest of this trip. And they got one… it just came 20 minutes too late. And when you cough up a division game before this, you kind of lose your right to mail in one right before the Christmas break. The Hawks seemed to realize that in the 2nd, but that’s not good enough. You’re not going to claw three back against Cory Schneider the way he’s playing. And you’re especially not going to do it when Sharp and Sbarro can combine to do perhaps the worst Stadler And Waldorf On Ice in the history of time (a competition I would like to judge one day).

Let’s run through it:

The Two Obs

-Especially in a sport as closed off as hockey, it’s probably impossible to get to the middle of how a team that kind of needed this one tonight can come out so rotten as the Hawks did in the first. There must’ve been eight to ten turnovers in the first five minutes in their own zone. “highlighted” by Gustav Forsling with a beautiful centering pass to his own crease and then Panik with a layoff to Brian Boyle.

The easy way to go here is to lay it at the feet of Joel Quenneville, because obviously it’s the coaches job to get a team ready to play. If it is with him, it certainly not all with him. It’s a whole leadership thing. And this is where you’re free to wonder with the three lettered players–Toews, Keith, Seabrook–basically producing dick (except for Keith, really)–how much influence they might have right now. They have veteran cache, sure. But someone’s gotta take the blame for how often, on the road usually, this team just isn’t at the races. But we’ll circle back to this in a moment.

-What I can hang Q out to dry for, and frequently have and will continue to do so, is these bewildering lineup and deployment choices. How does Patrick Sharp go from a deserved healthy scratch to the second line with Toews with no in-between? Players notice that, and I’m sure a couple are wondering what they have to do to get such treatment.

Let’s go to the Devils 4th goal, and what was a back-breaker. The Hawks have some juice from the second, a two-goal deficit is at least doable, and then you get this from Sharp and Seabrook. While watching this, make note of where Murphy is and where Seabrook ends up:

Murphy is up on the play, as he should be as the Hawks push for another goal. And you want your defense to be active, but you don’t want them to be aggressively stupid, or suicidal. Seabrook is all the way up with two Devils behind him. Murphy is the one who’s pushing here and Seabrook has to play the free safety.

Of course, maybe this doesn’t matter if Patrick Sharp doesn’t execute the Ozzy Osbourne “Drop Pass To Nowhere” (leads to me). Good thing he was on the second line tonight.

-How does Jordan Oesterle go from four games in two months to the power play? Given what led to the penalty shot, this seems an even more valid question.

-Let’s keep going. Gustav Forsling sucks in his own end. I can’t put it lightly anymore. I’m not sure Jan Rutta is any better. So why are they starting a penalty kill you kind of have to have when you’re already down one? The one thing a kill can’t have is passes that go through the box. So of course it took Forsling all of six seconds to completely lose Palmieri behind him, and then be completely pointed the wrong way to turn into a goal-scoring bumper for the Devils.

-Right, so let’s circle back to the leadership thing again. Obviously, this blog and this writer has a complicated relationship with Patrick Kane. So the following is strictly on-ice. But if you had told me say even three years ago that when the Hawks are struggling and need a boost, it would be Kane who consistently provides it and Toews would just sort of have a vacant look on his face most of the night, I would have called you a filthy liar and then asked the bartend to cut you off if not outright remove you from the premises.

But that’s been the story. On a night where he could have easily chucked it, Kane spent the second period trying drag his team back into it. And this is hardly the first game, either this year, or last year, or the one before that, where he’s done it. Sure, there’s the whole difference of center-vs-wing, and the competition each play, and where they start. But this team needed a jolt and for someone to say “fuck this” and to try and come up with inspiration. Only one half of Daydream Nation did it.

-Remember when Brandon Saad was noticeable? Good times, those. Many laughs were had. A libation shared. I’m sad these are things we just reminisce about right now.

-Ok, that’s enough heading into the holiday. From all of us here, have a wonderful Christmas. And we’ll pick it back up when the Hawks land on the West Coast.

 

Everything Else

Game #29 – I Don’t Worry ‘Bout Nothin’, No, Because Worryin’s a Waste of My Time – Hawks 2, Sabres 2 (Hawks Win “Who Can Blow the Loudest Fart” Contest)

By John Pullega 2318 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Watching this game was like watching a dog with two dicks debating which one to lick first. To the bullets.

– This entire game was an “all process, no results” affair. I simply don’t know how to explain how the Hawks as a team can have a fucking 70+ CF% through three periods and only score two goddamn goals. And it’s not like the Hawks were only taking perimeter shots either. Look at where a bulk of their shots came from.

Hat tip to Robin Lehner for not only skipping the Trump rally in Pensacola but also managing to stop a constant barrage of shots right in front of the net. The Hawks had 13 high danger attempts vs. three for the Sabres and came away with just two regulation goals. I hate to be the guy who chalks it up to luck, but I don’t know how else to explain it.

– That said, thank your god for Nick Schmaltz. In the first period, I was standing around wringing my hands after he decided to throw a pass up the middle of the ice and missed Kane instead of continuing to drive to the net for a backhander. Eddie O. made a comment about how he needs to take that shot, and I ranted and raved to a glass of bourbon about how I needed less Jesus Christ and more Niccolò Machiavelli out of him. From then on, he took just about every shot he saw. And while Tommy Wingels will get all the crotch kisses from Foley and everyone else for the shorty in the third period, none of it happens if Schmaltz doesn’t act like a one-man wrecking ball against three Sabres to maintain possession of the puck. He’s absolutely the Hawks best player out there tonight.

– Though you could argue that DeBrincat was the best player tonight, too. Top Cat’s PP goal came from the left side. I, for one, am shocked that he was capable of doing that. It’s not like he scored 7 million goals from there in the OHL or anything. Whatever. You take what you can get, and Top Cat has so, so much to give. Watching him turn into a forechecking terror is a joy, especially with all the offensive upside. Just think of the pornography he’d make with Our Special Boy, had the brain trust not punted him to Carolina.

– Vinnie Smalls did the thing he’s good at, too. He was a coked-up mongoose in a den of snakes, and per usual, had nothing to show for it on the scoring ledger. He’ll probably never be more than a tweener in the NHL, but he was fast and noticeable. He’s not savior, but he avoided doing things the Max Power way tonight.

– I motherfucked Crawford coming back this soon to play in this game, but obviously, Q’s THROBBING GENIOUS BRAIN knows better. Though the Sabres did next to dick throughout the game offensively, there’s no way you’re trusting Forsberg against Eichel on the OT penalty shot. We knew this season was going to ride on Crawford, but I don’t think many of us thought that a December game against the worst team in the NHL would be the manifestation of that thought.

– Cody Franson played zero minutes on the power play, and spent most of the third period in the locker room. If he’s not on the PP, there’s absolutely no reason for him to suit up. It’s time for Q to get the gimp that is Michal Kempný out of the box and next to Porkins.

– Speaking of Porkins, wasn’t that penalty just classic him? His utter inability to move not only canceled an icing, but left the Hawks down a man late in the third down one in a game they absolutely needed to win. But hey, it led to a goal. I’m sure the brass will find a way to chalk that up to leadership, because we have another 9,000 years of this contract to justify.

– Forsling’s Two Face impression may have fooled Eddie O., but not me. Yes, he scored the game winner. Yes, he had a hand in all of the Hawks’s goals. But his positioning on both Eichel’s and Okposo’s goals is inexcusable. I know he’s all of 20 and is being thrown into the deep end . . . and really that’s the explanation. We can bitch and moan about how he’s not a good fit on the PK for now, but the only other realistic option is Murphy, and it doesn’t look like Q wants to trust him there yet.

– Though he probably should. Murphy has looked better and better each time out, and he was rewarded tonight by replacing Franson on the top pairing with Keith. The best thing I’ve noticed from him is how much more confident he is when clearing the puck from his own end. That was a huge problem for him early on. His move to the left side seems to have given him a nice confidence boost. Whether he stays up top with Keith is anyone’s guess, but if it is Kempný who slots in on Sunday, I can’t see why we wouldn’t see Keith–Murphy.

– There’s something to be said about Jonathan Toews completely giving up on Eichel in OT, but I’m not sure what it is, mostly because the OT is a blazing clown rodeo held in a dumpster behind a Wawa. He looks 29 going on 40.

If you’re playing must-win games against the dregs of hockey in December, all is not well. But the Hawks did everything you’re supposed to do to win a game except score, which, of course, is about as John Maddeny as it gets. Whatever. Two points are two points. Anything but four in the next two is an abject failure.

Booze of the Night: High Life –> Tommyknocker Maple Brown –> Woodford Reserve

(Evergreen) Line of the Night: “The inability to work his legs will cost Seabrook and the Hawks a penalty.” –Foley

Everything Else

This is all we got – Blackhawks 2, Stars 2 – Stars win karaoke contest

By Adam Hess 2550 0

The Hawks and Stars played each other for the second time in three nights on Saturday, and they went past their allotted 60 minutes yet again. This time it went to a shootout, and the Stars grabbed the extra point again by going 2-for-2 while the Hawks went 0-for-2. Bullets:

  • Cody Franson made another one of those plays that no other right handed defenseman on the Blackhawks can make tonight when he one-timed a puck that was coming back to him at the point off the boards, and it resulted in the Hawks first goal of the game. Even though he got his face punched in repeatedly against Dallas on Thursday, he recovered pretty well tonight and had some nice moments.
  • I know I am not telling you anything you don’t know, but the power play is so, so bad. If your first exposure to a power play was the Hawks’ man advantage to start the third period, you would seriously question why it’s considered an advantage. I went back and watched it a second time and I still don’t think there was any semblance of a plan.
  • A few weeks ago, I wrote in a wrap that Anton Forsberg has been proving he does not belong in the NHL. Lately, he’s been proving me wrong. He was solid on Tuesday against Nashville, and looked good again tonight. I’ve never played goalie, but I do know that playing the position well requires a lot of confidence, and Forsberg looks very confident in the crease lately. I won’t be too surprised he keeps this team above water in Crow’s absence.
  • Heart Man and Top Cat seem to have developed a nice chemistry that makes them real fun to watch. At one point in the second period, Hartman made a nifty little backhand pass from below the goal line to ADB standing in the right slot that allowed him to get a nice shot off. It didn’t result in a goal, but it got me off my couch for a second. That’s not the only example of said chemistry, but definitely the one I remember most. The Hawks might be able to get a nice scoring line out of this partnership.
  • The Hawks took a lot of irresponsible penalties tonight. Keith stuck out his leg and tripped a guy below the net. Murphy got his stick tied up Radulov’s legs as he was hitting him that resulted in tripping call, and later got caught for elbowing. Obviously there are times where there’s not much you can about some penalties you take, but these ones almost all felt avoidable.
  • The 3-on-3 overtime remains a major gimmick, but this one between these two teams was all kinds of fun. It was constant back and forth with each team getting one or two scoring chances, then having to hustle back to eliminate an odd man rush. I had a very good time watching it. I kinda wish the NHL would just ditch the shootout and let regular season overtime be an untimed 3-on-3 contest. It’d still be gimmicky, but it’d be at least more fun than a shootout.
  • This one isn’t about the game itself, but this broadcast from Comcast Chicago or whatever the damn channel is called now felt so awkward. Brian Campbell clearly feels a little out of place in the studio analyst role, Steve Konroyd sucks (see the quote of the night below), and Pat Foley asked a coach, who doesn’t play the game, if the ice was okay because of the NBA game that happened in Dallas this afternoon. I really didn’t think I’d miss Edzo but here we are.

Next is LA tomorrow night. Onward.

Quote of the night: “Nice job by Brent Seabrook. He didn’t have any speed whatsoever.” – Steve “Somehow I Have Broadcast Job” Konroyd.

Everything Else

Atop the Sugar Pile – November 27

By Adam Hess 2329 0

Since we last did this, the Blackhawks have taken 7 out of a possible 8 points, and done it against some good competition. They took the Bolts to overtime, though blew a 2-0 lead in the process, and also beat the Rangers, Penguins, and Panthers. Only the second of those three are really among the NHL’s elites, but the other two are fine teams, so we’ll take it. Things are sort of going up, so let’s look at what’s been going on.

The Dizzying Highs

Artem Anisimov: Wide Dick managed 4 goals and an assist in the past 4 games, only being held off the stat sheet in one of those four games. He’s showed a nice bounce back from a low and sometimes frustrating start to the season. He posted a hat trick against the Rags, which apparently was his first of his career, though that surprised me a bit. I don’t expect the torrid scoring to continue, but he’s looked a lot better recently so hopefully that continues, because the results will follow.

Patrick Kane: After being marked by Sam as a Terrifying Low last time we did this, Kane has upped his game. He’s had 5 points in the past 4 games as well, split as 3 goals and two assists, including a 2-goal effort against Tampa Bay in which he scored the Hawks only two goals. He’s officially at a point per game pace this year, and his shooting percentage is back to 12%, which is essentially his career norm. More of the same from the Hawks’ best players will certainly be welcome.

The Terrifying Lows

Brent Seabrook (still): Look, I know this is redundant and lazy, but I can’t ignore it, and there hasn’t been that much esle bad lately. Seabrook hasn’t found the score sheet in the past two weeks, and his CF is down to a miserable 48.11%. He really needs a benching and/or launching into the sun, but Quenneville apparently does not seem to agree with pretty much everybody else in the world on that. It’s getting frustrating to watch him continue to leave nacho cheese all over the ice with nothing positive to show from it. Pray for an awakening.

The Creamy Middles

Richard Panik: Panik had 3 assists against the Rags, and while that was the only time he’s made the score sheet in the past two weeks, he’s managed a nice 61.06 CF% in the past four games as well. Panik is never gonna be a world beating scorer, and he won’t really be a top-line forward, but he’s effective in the role that Hawks need him to play, and that’s more than we can say about some of the clowns around this team.

Everything Else

The Winds Of Thor Are Blowing Cold – Quarterly Report

By Sam Fels 3552 0

As Pat Foley was very anxious to tell you on Saturday night, the Hawks passed the quarter-mark of the season. Well, technically they’ll pass it with ten minutes to go in the second period tomorrow night, as that would be the actual quarter of 82 games. But I’m not writing this post in the middle of the game tomorrow, because like all of you I’ll most likely be elbow deep in a pilsner of some sort on Black Wednesday. So let’s just do this now, huh?

Let’s divide this up into “What We Know,” “What We Think,” and “We Don’t Know Anything” because it makes for a nice Mad Season reference. On to it:

What We Know

Corey Crawford is really good – This is the most obvious one. For at least the season’s first 10 games, maybe longer, Crawford was the only reason the Hawks were picking up any points at all. He was carrying a save-percentage over .940 for a while there, and his underlying numbers under that were pretty stupid.

The concern is that he’s not going to be able to maintain this standard for a whole season. Luckily, at least in some ways, his numbers are flattening out to things he’s put up for. His current even-strength SV% would not be a career-high, as he was .933 in ’15-’16 against his .932 now. He also put up .931’s at evens in ’14-’15 and 2013.

Crow hasn’t even had to perform quite as many miracles this year as in years past, at least at the moment. Expected save-percentage isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s what we have to go on. It’s basically trying to show how much above average a goalie is playing, by illustrating what a neutral goalie would surrender if seeing the same chances as the goalie in question is. The difference between expected save-percentage and a goalie’s actual one would tell you just how unconscious he’s been or how below par he’s been. Crow’s difference of 1.09 between his expected save percentage and actual would only be the fourth-highest of his career, and only a touch above his average of +1.00 the past five years. Basically, this is what he does, and the Hawks aren’t asking him to do quite as much as he has in the past, even if it feels like it.

If there’s an area of concern, it’s work on the penalty-kill. Crow’s SV% there currently is .918, and that blows anything he’s done before out of the water and into orbit. His previous career-high was .894 in 2013. The difference between his SV% and xSV% on the kill is also astronomical, though it isn’t among the league-leaders at the moment. If the fall comes, it’ll be on the PK and with the Hawks still having a much worse five-man acoustical jam on the power play, that could be a real problem.

Brent Seabrook is woof-tastic – You knew we would get here. There’s really nothing encouraging about any of it, as Seabrook’s underlying numbers continue to sink into the gravy boat he also likely lost his keys in. And it’s clear that Q has noticed. As Pullega pointed out earlier today, his time on ice is dwindling, not even getting 14 minutes of ES time in three of the past four games. Even more tellingly, at the end of the game on Saturday where the Hawks had to protect a one-goal lead it was Jan Rutta with Duncan Keith out there.

But in some ways, that’s encouraging? You have to ignore the context, but there is some hope that i the right pairing Seabrook can survive as a third-pairing d-man. Give him someone with mobility, be it Forsling or Kempny, and softer assignments, and there’s a decent chance the ice won’t look like After The Fall when he’s done.

What We Think

Connor Murphy might be getting it? – It sounds strange to say because lately he’s been partnered with Seabrook. But Murphy’s CF% the last seven games: 72, 76.1, 65.6, 43.8, 60, 55.5, 50. And he hasn’t had sheltered zone starts. So much of this season is pinned on Murphy and Forsling being really good, and both seem to be trending that way. In some ways Seabrook, in a vacuum (make your stomach-pumping joke here) is a perfect partner for Murphy, because both, in theory, are something of a tweener when it comes to roles. Seabrook was always too gifted offensively to be merely a center fielder, and Murphy skates well enough to get himself in the play–though he’s never going to score a lot. I’d still like to see Murphy play the foil to a pure puck-mover like Keith or Forsling, but all good things to those who wait, Clarice.

We Don’t Know Anything

The Hawks 3rd line – It’s been something of a hole all year. It was bad with Anisimov there, but he’s had a revival moving up to play with Kane and Schmaltz. Sharp, Hartman, ADB, Wingels, and Working Class Kero have all taken turns trying to straighten it out and nothing has really worked. The fourth line has played well enough to cover it up for now, but what’s frustrating is there do seem to be solutions in-house. They could either be moving Schmaltz back to center, getting Top Cat into the top six and moving either Toews or Anisimov around wingers that they can do something with (yes, I would put Schmaltz between Saad and Panik and Toews lower down the lineup and I wouldn’t think twice). A call-up of Vinnie Smalls also would seem to be worth a try. His speed would have to have some effect, but this might just be a player Q doesn’t like. We’ll find out soon enough.

Everything Else

You Love This Game. It Says Everything You Want To Say

By Sam Fels 2808 0

It’s hard to imagine how last night could have been a better illustration of the things the Hawks defense does well and the things it doesn’t do well and how it’s kind of mismatched for the task at hand. It also was something of an example about how it’s being let down by the forwards in front of it, and how those forwards bail them out.

Here’s what we know about the Hawks’ defense right now. It has maybe one top-pairing player, and that’s not a certain (Keith). It has three players that are probably no more than third-pairing bum-slayers (Forsling, Franson, Seabrook). It has two players either in their first or second year that are still working out the kinks (Rutta, Forsling). It has one player that Q just won’t let be anything, really (Kempny). And it has one player who’s probably a second-pairing player learning a new system, but the Hawks need him to become a top pairing player sharpish while shuffling him from one side to the other (Murphy). As you can see, it’s a mess.

Of late, Q has come to trust (somewhat) Cody Franson with Duncan Keith. If you squint, you see why. He’s big, he’s a good counter to Keith’s all-over game, and when he has the puck he’s good with it. But here’s the problem. Watch Franson on this one, especially on the replay:

He loses the puck off the draw, spins around looking for it in his feet, gets stripped, and then dogs it back to his side of the ice where there are two Rangers uncovered because Keith is probably expecting him to get back there sometime before Purim. And this is not a rare occurrence with Franson, who does not have anywhere near the speed to be dogging it anywhere. There’s a reason he’s on his fourth team and was on a PTO. He’s just that slow and kind of goes to the zoo too often.

But he can also do this:

That’s a one-timer off a bouncing puck off the boards not anywhere near his wheelhouse that he gets to the net. And really, he’s just about the only Hawks d-man who can do that. Certainly the only right-handed one, as Seabrook would have probably fallen over these days. The Hawks need that on the power play for sure, and they need that dash at even-strength as well from that side.

The Hawks are also being held back at times due to a learning curve.

Here, the Hawks do mostly everything right, actually. Murphy is within his rights to try and jump down low and get involved, and the Hawks want that out of him. Hartman actually covers his point correctly, but doesn’t read the shot going wide right and lets the puck past him and then Nash has a step on Murphy. Murphy actually does pretty well in forcing Nash on his backhand and wide, and this is one Crow would like back. But again, it’s an example of the Hawks d not really having the footspeed to play the hyper-aggressive game they have, or at least still trying to reprogram some players on how to do it.

Gustav Forsling was excellent last night, and yet still started over 60% of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. And his partner, Jan Rutta, was beyond awful. And this is the kind of thing the Hawks are just going to have to live with for a while.

Q won’t like it, because the one time he tried it the Hawks gave up seven, but dressing seven d-men for a while is probably the best option. Because each of the d-men have something the Hawks need and each of them also have a glaring weakness that needs to be covered up. Kempny is the most mobile d-man behind Keith and Forsling (and it’s closer with Forsling than you think). But he is good for one or two boners per game that need to be covered. Keith can’t both take on top lines and push the play offensively, which means you need someone else to do whichever he’s not. But from the left side, only Forsling can be a puck-mover behind Keith if Kempny isn’t playing. If someone else needs to take top pairing assignments defensively, who is it? I’d give Murphy a run, but with whom? It sure feels like Forsling is being groomed for that, but that’s a big risk. Franson is slow and defensively wonky, but his offensive skills and right-handed shot are needed on the power play at least. Rutta is defensively more sound than Franson but doesn’t have the offensive polish, so he can’t do all of those things and his learning curve is starting to look pretty steep anyway.

And Seabrook…um…. well, I’ll get back to you on that.

As you can see, it’s a rough puzzle to try and fix, as there don’t seem to be any corner pieces. The Hawks haven’t fashioned any yet, that’s for sure.

Everything Else

Game #19 – D Is for Delightful, and Try and Keep Your Trousers On – Hawks 6, Rangers 3

By John Pullega 3784 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Well that was a bit more fun, wasn’t it? Aside from the Hawks slogging out of the gate like a soon-to-be-shot horse, they put on a display of raw power. To the bullets.

– Maybe “display of raw power” is overstating it, but the Hawks dominated possession for all of the 2nd and about 80% of the 3rd. They ended with a 53% share after the Baconator fart 1st, in which they posted a pathetic 32+ CF%. And it’s hard to argue against 43 shots. Any time Ondrej Pavelec seems like a better option is a good time.

– A good portion of that possession can be pinned on Patrick Kane playing like a $10.5 million player. It all started with that reach-back, through the legs backhander off the crossbar, which is the kind of thing first crushes are made of. From there, Kane proceeded to undress just about everyone on the Rangers, and was especially beautiful on Wide Dick Artie’s first goal. More of this will do just fine by all of us.

– And how about Wide Dick Artie? Playing primarily with Kane and Schmaltz has done his body of work good. The first two goals were the types of stereotypical dirty goals your mother warned you about, and the hattie from Schmaltz was a sight to behold, mostly on the part of Schmaltz, who found the perfect spot on Anisimov’s stick for the tip in.

– Anisimov also scored the PP goal, which was a clinic in how to move the puck on the PP. After winning the faceoff to Kane, Kane tapped to Seabs, who found Schmaltz on the lower left boards, who cycled it to Anisimov below the goal line, then out to Franson for a quick wrister that Artie cleaned up. One of the passing analytics gurus, Ryan Stimson, always talks about the importance of setting up plays from below the goal line, and that was a case study in how to do it.

– While it was nice to see Franson contribute two assists, he spent most of the game skating around like he was trying to hide an erection. His unforced turnover on the PP in the 1st period was so egregious that Rutta ended up on the PP point for a while. I get that Q wants Franson on the PP, but the past couple of games have shown why he was brought in on a tryout. But it’s not like the Hawks have many other options, since Murphy has found a home on the left side it seems.

– Over the past few games, Rutta has looked a step behind everyone else. He somehow managed to be the worse D-man between him and Forsling, which, to this point, was difficult to do. That he ended up with a 51+ CF% is a small miracle, given his 18 CF% in the 1st period. As much as I want him to turn into a surprise Top 4 guy, the past couple of games haven’t been encouraging. And since Q seems married to Franson out there, it might not be a bad time to flip Rutta out for Kempný in the next one, though that will no doubt cause all sorts of fuckery with the pairings.

– Credit where it’s due: Forsling saved the game tonight. His stick save on Desharnais after Rutta turned the puck over and then got horsed, and Crawford got caught down kept the Hawks from blowing their second three-goal lead in a row. Though the numbers don’t entirely flesh it out, Forsling had himself a pretty good game after a woeful 1st period, which saw him with a 9 CF%. They don’t make video packages on NBC for nothing, right? (They often do.)

– Not to fart in anyone’s soufflé, but Toews was one of only three Hawks to be below 50% in shot shares at evens (with Wingels and Panik). Yes, he scored, but it was an empty netter. It’s just one game of course, and he’s got a strong 54+ CF% on the year, but he looked to be fighting it tonight.

– Crawford wasn’t pristine, but he was good when he had to be after his rough go on Sunday. Sure, he’d like to have that third goal back, but the other two goals can be pinned more on Rutta than him (or you can just give Kreider, Zibanejad, and Captain Stairwell the credit they probably deserve).

– Brent Seabrook played the fewest minutes of all Hawks D-men tonight and posted a 60 CF%. I wonder whether those two things are related. Small sample size, but if Chunk continues to play the fewest minutes of the D-men, we might have one fewer thing to scream about.

– Kitten Mittons on the 3rd line is still stupid. That softie he squeaked by Lundqvist was hilarious.

There’s still some wonkiness out there, but the Hawks look like they’ve found some offense. If they can get Toews, Kane, and Saad on the goal side of the score sheet, all the doom and gloom could be a distant memory in a few weeks.

Beer Du Jour: My cat spilled my High Life, so I went and got a Baconator.  Same shits, different way.

Line of the Night: “Ryan McDonagh has been a Tower of Power tonight.” –Pierre, the only man who can simultaneously be naïve and a pervert.

Everything Else

Game #17 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Preview/Kick For Touch: Though I Know I’ll Never Lose Affection For People And Things That Came Before

By Sam Fels 1642 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 7-7-2   Hurricanes 6-5-3

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: WGN

HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL, DIDN’T HE?: Section 328

It’ll be a reunion of sorts tonight down in Raleigh. The Hawks will visit the biggest collection of their alumni in the league, and they’ll see a Hurricanes team that expected to be ahead of where they are currently. There should be some air of desperation at the RBC tonight, but then again there should have been in Philly and it took the Hawks 30 minutes to find the smelling salts.