Everything Else

Game #54 – No One Speaks English And Everything’s Broken, And My Stacies Are Soaking Wet – Hawks 2, Stars 4

By John Pullega 2264 0

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Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks, in the words of the inimitable Tom Waits, are a battered old suitcase to a hotel someplace, and a wound that will never heal. To the bullets.

– Brent Seabrook had a positively wonderful game tonight. His pass on Toews’s goal channeled 2013, and his purposely wide shot on Arty the One Man Party’s PP tally was a tangible example of the excellent passing we’ve always loved about him. Plus, his Corsi was a robust 67+ at 5v5. It’s no coincidence that he played the second-fewest minutes of all Hawks D-Men at evens, ahead only of Kempný. I don’t know about you, but even with the Hawks losing, I took solace in watching Seabrook play well. Like hot spiked cider on a cold, unforgiving winter’s night.

– The same can’t be said about Jordan Oesterle. He had a nice run coming out of the press box cold for a while, but the magic beans he’d been consuming to give him that extra giddy-up have gone stale. His turnover behind his own net let Stephen “One of the Ones Who Got Away” Johns do his best Russ Tyler impression, burying a knuckler—that Oesterle himself may have set the screen on—from the blue line for the Stars’s second goal in less than a minute. He also had a couple of miscues in the third that ended up not doing any direct damage, but did lead to extended pressure for the Stars early in the third with the Hawks down one.  Despite this, and his 44+ CF% on the night, he played more than anyone except Keith. This is your D-corps, folks.

– Anthony Duclair seemed half a step behind everything tonight. He whiffed on a wide-open shot off a Toews pass after stealing the puck from Pissbaby Benn late in the first. His turnover in his own zone led to the Stars’s first goal. From about midway through the second onward, he was a ghost. But his possession numbers were stellar (67+ CF%). He’s still got loads of potential and needs to stay up with DeBrincat and Toews, and eventually be re-signed.

– I want to be mad at Anton Forsberg, by my heart just isn’t in it. At the end of the day, he’s a backup goaltender on a team whose D-Men are either rapidly declining, still learning, or flat-out suck. There’s not much he can do on that first goal, with Radulov firing a perfect saucer pass to Tyler Seguin off the Duclair turnover. Having Oesterle screen him on Johns’s shot can sort of be forgiven. And yes, he needs to stop fucking Tyler Pitlick’s slapper at the end of the second. But then again, it’s perfectly fitting that a guy named Pitlick would score the game winner against the Hawks tonight, isn’t it?

– Connor Murphy started the game on the top pairing and looked pretty good doing it. His CF% of 54+ was inspiring. But he was on the ice for two goals. You can argue that he took a bad angle on the first goal, but given how often he’s been flipped and jerked around this year, it’d be a stretch. And we all saw the third goal: That’s on Forsberg. You’d like to see him get more time with Keith, but with the defensive carousel that Q is throttling into overdrive, it’s impossible to tell.

– Erik Gustafsson looks more like a 5-6 D-Man every night. He’s got decent vision with his passing too, at least when Kane’s on the ice with him. I’d be interested to see him with one of Rutta or Kempný at some point.

– David Kampf probably has a future as a bottom six defensive center. His stick checking was pristine tonight, and he won a few board battles to show off his strength.

– It was nice to see Toews score tonight. He also had a 73+ CF%. But he missed a yawning net in the first off a pass through the Royal Road from DeBrincat, either because he wasn’t expecting the pass or because his skate got caught. Microcosms.

– The chocolates and flowers for Tommy Wingels tonight were a bit much. Foley, Jammer, and Burish barely had time to come up for air between all the kisses they blew at him for TROWING HITS OUT DERE. He had one good hit in the third that separated the puck and drew a penalty, but other than that, I don’t get it. He janked an uncontested rebound off the far post and did nothing other than hit guys the rest of the night. I understand the frustration over this team this year. I understand that we don’t really have any answers. But this whole DA FIRE AND DA PASHUN garbage is already wearing thin. Hits have never been the answer for this team, and they sure as shit aren’t the answer now.

– Brandon Saad did not have a good game, again. He logged a 48+ CF% with Schmaltz and Vinnie. He did set up a few good chances that went unanswered. Like all of you, I want to see him come out of his funk. He’s probably best served playing with Schmaltz and Kane again, but I get how it can be hard to justify it right now. At the end of the day, he’s a good player having both a down and unlucky year.

As it stands, this season is circling the drain. As it stands, the Hawks have good young talent on the front lines but not the back end. As it stands, without Corey Crawford, this team doesn’t have the firepower to make the playoffs.  It’s frustrating, it’s out of the ordinary, and it’s hockey, baby.

Onward.

Boozes du Jour: Jefferson’s whiskey into High Life back into whiskey.

Line of the Night: “HIT SOMEONE.” –Adam Burish on how the Hawks could overcome a 3–2 deficit in the third (I usually love Burish, and I get the frustration, but it’s lazy).

Everything Else

Now Here Is Nowhere

By Sam Fels 2680 0

Last night’s frustrating loss whipped up a little more vitriol and angst than previous losses have. Perhaps it was the manner, as the Hawks did play well, couldn’t finish, and were on the donkey end of a couple calls (one not egregious, one that really defies belief). Still, the Hawks only scored one goal that mattered, really none at even-strength, and you’re going to get what you get when you do that. Which is not much and basically a handful of yourself.

And while it hurts to say, given the results everywhere else it’s left the playoff hopes in tatters, and now the Hawks are going to need something bordering on miraculous to even get back into the discussion. Which means the knives are coming out, and that means people want guillotine fodder.

It’s understandable. While I don’t think anyone expected this team to repeat last year’s regular season, this has been a disappointment. The injury to Crawford has been more crucial than anyone wants to admit, because no one wants to admit their team hinges so heavily on a goalie. But the Hawks are hardly alone in this. If Pekka Rinne weren’t having a renaissance season at 35 the Preds would be way off where they are, because they really haven’t been a good defensive team yet this year. The Jets and Hellebuyck. Vegas and their rotating cast of clowns. When the Kings were riding high it was because Quick was throwing a .940 at the league. Even Tampa, the best team in the league, has Vasilevskiy as a Vezina leader. Rask has lifted Boston. This is just how the league works now.

But that’s not enough for a lot, and I don’t know that they’re wrong. People want the house cleaned, and that’s both GM and coach.

Our feelings on the coach are well-known at this point, so let’s save that for a bit later. When it comes to any possible firing of Stan Bowman, one has to ask what the expectations for him and the team really were, not what they said they were, and what mistakes you’re firing him for.

If Stan is truly, and being allowed, to try and engineer a rebuild on the fly and the results this year aren’t quite as important as next season’s or the one after that, you’d have to say his results at worst are just on the positive side. Nick Schmaltz has proven to be a bonafide #2 center in this league. Alex DeBrincat looks to be a future top line sniper, with a dash of vision thrown in. The Connor Murphy trade was a good one, whatever his coach or blinded local media seem to think. Vinnie Hinostroza and David Kampf look like they can be bottom-six contributors on a good team.

Yes, Brandon Saad has disappointed. Maybe that could have been scouted out in Columbus, because he did do this at times there, too. But the thought was that being back in Chicago and on the top line would reinvigorate him. Stan was hardly the only one who thought that. Other than Kane, the other veterans have not performed up to their usual standards. But what was the alternative there? They’re going to be here until they retire.

Ah, this is where the discussion begins. Brent Seabrook’s contract. Ok, let’s have it. Let’s go back in time. Even if I were to grant you that Seabrook’s extension was all Stan’s decision, and I won’t, remember when this contract was signed. Three months after a third parade. It would have taken quite the tires for any GM to let Seabrook go into the last year of his deal, after he was a major, major cog in a third triumph (and you forget how good he was that spring) and then simply let him walk. Or better yet, trade him right after the confetti had fallen to the Soldier Field ground or during the season. I can’t think of a precedent for it. Yes, you might point to the purge after the first Cup, but there was no alternative there. And all of Ladd, Byfuglien, Sopel, Versteeg, even Niemi, were more contributors than cornerstones. Seabrook was a cornerstone. Yes, the Penguins let Trevor Daley walk after two Cups. Trevor Daley also sucks and always has. You’ll notice they probably overpaid for Justin Schultz. They’ve hinted at trading Kris Letang, which would be a comp, except he’s been fragile his whole career and wasn’t even part of last year’s run. Seabrook was neither of those two things at the time.

Yes, perhaps Stan could have played more hardball (again, if this was up to him). Maybe he could have gotten less years on it, but that probably only raises the AAV. And quite simply, hardball negotiations are not something the Hawks do. They’re terrified of it. That’s why they traded Saad the first time instead of waiting him out and imagining an incoming offer sheet that simply was never going to happen. It’s why they’ve twice handed Toews and Kane extensions well before their deals were up that were probably higher than they had to be. It’s why Crow got his deal, though man does that look like a bargain now. They just don’t do it. Their first priority, it seems, is to be seen as THE player-friendly organization.

Stan’s biggest mistakes were losing Teuvo, Johns, and Danault for essentially nothing (though the latter was in a go-for-it trade that simply didn’t work). Even if we accept they had to go, you can’t lose young players like that for nothing in return. And that’s the ground that Stan is trying to make up. I would argue that he had to lose those players to pay other ones to please coach and president, but I won’t be able to prove that until someone writes the tell-all book in about 10 years.

Another thing Stan is working against this campaign is that due to the NHL’s incomprehensibly stupid cap-recapture penalties, he wasn’t really allowed to do anything with Hossa’s money. The Hawks chose not to use the LTIR money in the summer so they could have flexibility during the season, and that’s understandable. What’s not is that they had to make that decision at all. Hossa’s contract was not against the rules when signed, so why should any team be punished for that after the fact? The blame could go to the players’ union as well here, who simply lied down and accepted this ridiculous rule without any fight.

If Hossa could have simply retired and freed up the money, which he should have been able to do, it’s not like the last free agent class was staggering but there were players who could have helped, whatever the aims of this season. Bonino? Shattenkirk (was only going to the Rangers but you get it)? Radulov? Hainsey? Kulikov? Varying degrees here, but clearly some if not all would have helped. The Hawks couldn’t do any of it because of cap-recapture. That seems like a pretty big obstacle.

If you’re firing Stan, it’s for either not starting this rebuild-on-the-fly in the immediate aftermath of a Cup, which seems just about impossible. Or you’re firing him because you don’t like where this is going, and as stated above that’s not correct. Or you’re firing him because players got old.

I’m not saying this roster turnover is going to work next year or the one after, and then it won’t matter anyway, I don’t think. But if indeed that’s what’s going on here, Stan should get to see it to its completion. And if that falls short, then I give you permission to fire him.

Everything Else

Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

By Sam Fels 2132 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-18-8   Hawks 24-20-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SONS OF OTTO: Flamesnation.ca

The following is getting into “Jimini Jillickers!” territory, but tonight begins a crucial stretch for the Hawks. If that stretch didn’t already start last Saturday. Or after the break. Or a month ago. I’ve declared so many of these fucking things it’s impossible to keep track. The bottom line is the Hawks need to kick this pick if the last month or so of the season is going to matter. And we’ll probably say that again soon.

The Hawks get seven of the next 10 at home, except that hasn’t been a panacea for anything for them this year. Three of those home games are against teams that are with them in the Western muddle around the last playoff spot, tonight against Calgary, next week against the Ducks, and Saturday against the Wild. They basically need to take all three in regulation, plus a few others. If they don’t eat well at home over the next three weeks, then you’ll know it’s over. There’s another thing I’ve said way too often.

Apparently Joel Quenneville gets the desperation, as he’s throwing more shit at the wall in the hopes of proving his geniusness once again. “GENTLEMEN! I HAVE INVENTED….THIS LINEUP!”

It has a new 3rd/4th line, depending on your point of view, of Saad-Hartman-Sharp. I guess there’s some benefit in cloistering your three biggest disappointments altogether, and hoping the mass ennui just turns itself into a positive force. I have no idea what it’s supposed to do, though Hartman and Saad could actually do something if they had a playmaker with them to get them in space where they perform better. Sharp is not that guy, but there aren’t any other options besides Wingels or Bouma so let’s just go with this. Give them the same instructions that have made Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls successful. Just do shit and do it fast, even if Sharp isn’t capable. Let’s not complicate this.

Of course, no desperate Hawks game would be complete without Q setting up his d-pairs while fingering his own ass, so out goes Connor Murphy again for reasons no one can understand. Especially when it involves giving Jan Rutta and Brent Seabrook more time. It’s ok, not like the Flames didn’t run circles around these two just last time out! Glass Jeff gets the start and poor rebound control.

As for the Flames, they have their own work to do as they sit outside both the wildcard and Pacific playoff picture, which are both open to them. They trail both by one point, and you have to believe this team is going to haul in the Kings because they’re not really any good and the Flames should be. Yes, they have depth scoring problems, though Kris Versteeg seems to be ready to come riding in on his donkey to save the day. Because you know Steeger would ride a donkey instead of a horse. Don’t play. They have the best pairing in the West, a goalie playing pretty well, and a genuine top six. This shouldn’t be that hard but they seem intent on making it so. They’ll be the “Team No One Wants To Play (TM).”

Worth watching tonight is how cute Q gets with his matchups. The top six of the Flames simply stinkfisted the Hawks top six in Calgary, and that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for Q to get both away from Monahan or Backlund. But there are going to be spots when that is necessary, because the Hawks really need this one. He did it on the road in Nashville and in theory it should be easier at home. But it’s not something he’s done a lot of lately, and we all know Rutta is going to start every shift in the d-zone against Monahan and Gaudreau because GENIUS TREE CUPZ YOU DORK!

Just kill me already.

Game #53 Preview

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Jonny…Angry Jonny…This Is Hawks Fans In Hell…

By Sam Fels 2402 0

Well if Poe reference doesn’t officially mark me as too fucking old, nothing will. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

It seems the way of the world these days is that we have to have a referendum on Jonathan Toews every couple of months or so, if not more often. Certainly it’s hard to think of a non-Seabrookian player that’s been more scrutinized this year than the captain. Of course, that comes with the territory of being the captain. You are the barometer, the forefront, the focus. And this is the first time in Toews’s career he’s been under a serious microscope. Even last year when he wasn’t matching his usual points-total, he had a dominant two months in the season and the Hawks were winning. Now he’s not producing and they aren’t winning. The hot lights are only getting more so.

And sadly, there’s little I can add here that’s any different than the last time we did this. A lot will scoff, and I won’t necessarily blame them, but analytically Toews is actually having a better season than he has in the past four. It’s his best CF% season in four, his best relative CF% in four, his best expected goals season in four, best relative in that as well, he’s averaging more attempts personally than he has in five seasons, and his individual expected goals is higher than it’s been in four seasons. These are the numbers.

Toews hasn’t been helped by the fact the power play has been a Chicago construction site for the whole season, though he obviously takes some responsibility for that as well. But say we penciled in ten more points on the power play, three goals and seven assists for him, if this unit was even mediocre. Suddenly Toews’s numbers are 17-26-43 in 52 games. Maybe not what you’d come to expect from Toews because of his past, but that would hardly be bad.

Toews is also somewhat being held up to an impossible standard, namely his simply unconscious season-in-a-can of 2013. Not only was he dominant, he also got a little lucky in terms of his own and the team’s shooting percentage as well. Keep in mind he was on pace for a 43-goal, 83-point season if that one was a full 82, with a 58% Corsi and stupid 62% expected goals. No one’s keeping that pace up.

Toews has seen his shooting-percentage at evens dip for the past three seasons, to the point where just like Marian Hossa we wonder if this isn’t just the new normal. Toews used to be anywhere from 13-16% at evens, and this is his third straight season of being around 8%. Again, it’s hard to pinpoint why this might be. He’s getting the same chances and the same quality of chances, if not better, but they’re not going in. We can’t really measure his release, accuracy, or velocity, and none of these are getting better as the pressure mounts.

Another thing we can’t measure is just how much Toews was asked to do in the past is weighing on him now. Yes, everyone points to the amount of games but that’s hardly the whole picture. After the ’15 season, and even during it, when Marian Hossa’s decline started for real, Toews’s job description became that much harder. Not only was he expected to carry out all his defensive duties low in his own zone, but he also had to be the first forechecker into the offensive one because Hossa just wasn’t getting there like he used to. Or he at least had to get their quicker because Hossa couldn’t Atlas a forecheck by himself for as long as he used to. Because really, who could?

It’s was shaded somewhat by Saad helping out in 2015 with the heavy lifting, but it’s no surprise that Toews’s numbers dropped when Saad left. It was only up to him to take up what Hossa couldn’t do anymore, as Hossa always paid attention to his defensive duties first. He would sacrifice some forecheck to be where he needed to be defensively. And Richard Panik clearly wasn’t enough, at least for anything more than a spurt here or there.

This was obviously the thinking in bringing Saad back. Someone who could get first into the zone and do things while Toews would obviously only have to support. But it hasn’t worked that way. Either with Saad’s in-and-out nights, or the fact that there wasn’t anyone to make anything of the work they are doing. Saad-Toews-Hossa was such an unholy force they didn’t need a playmaker. They could just bludgeon and force and cycle their way into chances. This is what you see Q trying to compensate for with Top Cat flanking Toews and Duclair, with Duclair now assigned what Saad was supposed to be doing. Debrincat has the vision and hands to use up that space being created. Patience and we could see some real numbers from this line very soon.

But that’s not the whole story, is it? Because there are still things you see from Toews on some nights that just don’t look right, do they? Who’s this getting beat back up the ice in OT for the winner against?

That’s not totally fair. It’s overtime 3-on-3 and people get in weird spots. Sean Monahan is younger and faster. That’s just the way things are.

Again here in Vancouver:

There are factors here. Toews is at the end of a PP shift and clearly tired. It’s not his turnover but ADB’s. But there’s a lack of anticipation, some hesitation, that we’re just not used to with Toews no matter the state of his legs on a given shift. And these haven’t been isolated incidents.

To try and explain Toews’s season with one or even two reasons if folly. In some ways it’s been what it’s always been. And he’s also been a victim of watching the league get faster while he might have lost even a half step. You don’t get a half-step in this league anymore. He’s been letdown at times by teammates. He might not be getting any luck again. He and no one else can seem to save themselves on the power play. And there’s probably more.

While I hate to steal a line from “Dark Knight Rises” because it’s terrible, it seems in some ways victory has defeated Toews. Because of him and the way the Hawks played and won and basically ran over the league there for a while. the game had to get faster. Everyone came to the Hawks level or more right at the time when the Hawks couldn’t quite maintain it anymore. It makes the gap look bigger.

Maybe Toews’s focus isn’t what it used to be, and I wouldn’t blame him if it wasn’t. After three rings, two gold medals, a Selke, a Conn Smythe (which should have gone to Keith or Sharp but we’ll save that for another time), there is nothing left for Toews to prove. He could retire tomorrow and be a first ballot Hall of Famer. So if a backcheck in Vancouver in February isn’t quite as important as it was, that seems almost natural.

Toews has also borne the brunt of criticisms for things that have nothing to do with him. His paycheck to start, and you know our policy on that. It wasn’t Toews who shipped off valuable youngsters that would be providing depth now to compensate for dumb contracts either the GM handed out or was forced to hand out. Imagine what Teuvo might have been doing on the other side of Saad and him? If Danault could have picked up some of his checking assignments?

Toews can still save this season, and I would never bet against the man. Because there’s enough here to say that it isn’t as bad as some would have you believe, and it wouldn’t take much for the underlying numbers to turn into tangible results.

Everything Else

Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Preview/Immersion Therapy: Shadows In The Flames

By Sam Fels 2826 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 24-20-7   Flames 25-18-8

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago here, Sportsnet up there

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flamesnation.ca

It can get exhausting living this way. After most losses you pronounce the season over, only to build yourself back up by the next game to say the turnaround has to start RIGHT NOW, even though that’s what you said before the last game. The constant push and pull gets deeper every time, and no matter which side you’re on that day THIS TIME YOU MEAN IT. So it is with that in mind that we say once again, the Hawks have to start their attack run RIGHT NOW, especially considering the next four points on offer are four points they could deny a direct competitor in the Calgary Flames. They’re going to have to climb over teams, and they get to face Calgary, Anaheim, and Minnesota in the next two weeks. Biff it, and then we’ll know it’s all over but the shouting and we can get on to dreams of Yoan Moncada and a Kyle Schwarber renaissance.

And this might be a good time to catch the Flames, who appear to be a real mess. On the same night the Hawks were letting out a beer belch in Vancouver, the Flames were spectacularly blowing a 4-2 lead to the Lightning at home to lose 7-4. That probably doesn’t do it justice, either. Mike Smith gave up four goals in eight 3rd period minutes to blow that lead, and it was a singular meltdown. You probably saw the GIF of him breaking his stick against the post before being pulled, though we’ll excuse you if you can’t tell it apart from the dozens of other GIFs of Mike Smith going apeshit toddler on his posts and stick.

It broke a hot streak for Smith, who before that had only surrendered 14 goals in his last eight starts. Overall he’s been really good with a .922 SV% and a .943 SV% in January. And yet the Flames haven’t been able to get going fully, other than a seven-game winning streak which they counteracted by failing to win any of the six after that (four losses in OT or SO).

If Smith isn’t the problem, the offense is. Before the outburst against Tampa, they’d managed eight goals in five games. And Edmonton, LA, and Buffalo were part of that slate and you’re supposed to get goals against them currently. Basically if Johnny Gaudreau’s line doesn’t score, the Flames won’t. Michael Frolik has returned to reassemble the 3M line and give them something of a second option, and they’re slowly trying to fortify the bottom six with a couple kids like Mark Jankowski and Andrew Mangiapane. Also, Kris Versteeg looks like he might make it back before the season ends, but if you’re in a place where you need Kris Versteeg you’re probably in a place that has no running water.

The Flames aren’t clean on defense either. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton have been just about the best pairing in the West all year. But below that, T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic are in a competition to see which can turn the other more into unidentifiable ooze all season. Michael Stone lives below that and that’s definitely a place that doesn’t have running water. And for some reason Glen Gulutzan won’t play Dougie enough to make a difference. Strange days, indeed.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but the Flames’ power play is also holding them back, and unlike the Hawks it has a couple natural QBs to run it. Their penalty killing hasn’t been as good either, and in this league special teams can make a huge difference. They won’t find much sympathy here, of course.

Now to the Hawks. There’s been yet another reshuffle, and it appears that Q’s patience with Brandon Saad has come to an end. Toews’s line remains the same (does anybody remember laughter?). Artem Anisimov moves back in between Schmaltz and Kane. On the surface this is a little frustrating, but then you remember that Wide Dick Arty is pretty much useless unless he’s playing with Kane and you have to maximize what you have. Saad is going to play with Wingels and Hartman as Q wants to keep Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls together, and with good cause. What a Saad-Wingels-Hartman line does is anyone’s guess, as we’ve said about the third line all season. What it might do is force Saad to start creating his own chances, which is in his holster but we don’t see very often. Or he can continue to drift aimlessly through games. He’s now gotten called out in the press by his coach, which is usually the last card Q wants to play. Now or never, bud.

It’s Judgement Day for the Hawks over the next couple weeks, as nonsensical as that sentence actually is. They face a bunch of teams around them. They could actually gain ground. But they’d have to put a streak together for more than three or four games, and that’s been beyond them all season. You turn enough corners, all you’ve done is end up where you were.

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Game #51 – Take Off Your Coat, It’s Gonna Be A Long Night – Hawks 2, Canucks 4

By John Pullega 2589 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

We’ll talk about how the numbers say the Hawks should have won this game. We’ll look at three goals that Forsberg had no shot on and wonder. We’ll take long-term solace in the fact that most of the younger assets looked good again tonight. But at the end of it all, the Canucks were a $100 gift card that the Hawks carelessly threw in the trash. To the bullets.

– Let’s start with the positives. Toews played an inspiring game for most of the night. He was everywhere in the first and assisted on Top Cat’s teaser in the third period. He drew two penalties, one on a good read followed by some much missed speed, and the second by dancing then brute forcing his way past Troy Stecher. We may have to come to terms with the fact that his 10% shooting percentage might be what he is now, but at least he was positively noticeable tonight.

–Even more comforting was that when Q decided to hit the blender in the third, he kept the Top Cat–Toews–Duclair line together, as he should.

– When the Jurco–Kampf–Vinnie line was together, they were by far the Hawks’s most effective line. Whether that’s because they’re so fast or because the underbelly of the Canucks is so soft is grounds for debate, but they dominated all night. Jurco and Kampf finished with respective CF%s of 75 and 78+(!) at 5v5, while Vinnie, with his bouncing around at the end, ended up with a healthy 60. Kampf looked to double shift a bit in the third too. It’s hard to shake the idea that Kampf could quietly develop into a strong bottom six defensive center, and aside from maybe Toews, he was the best Hawk out there tonight.

– The PP didn’t score again, because by this point it’s obvious what whoever is in charge of it simply slams six Steel Reserve Tall Boys, drops five tabs of acid, shoves the ass-end of a paintbrush as far up his urethra as he can, then humps a wall until he crashes. That said, the triangle of Seabrook, Kane, and Vinnie created a few good chances during the second PP in the second period. But chances aren’t good enough at this point.

– The Saad–Schmaltz–Kane line got completely domed in possession. At some point, we’re going to have to talk about what’s eating Brandon Saad. To this point, the underlying numbers have been good, which has been a fallback defense for the lack of scoring. But tonight’s effort was wanting.

– Seabrook–Gustafsson was on the ice for two goals, and Seabrook looked egregiously bad on Gaunce’s second goal. Seabrook had a 0 CF% through the first and managed to settle at a team low 35% at 5v5. What’s most frustrating is that Gustafsson might be a really good passer and a passable third-pairing guy. His CF% WITH Seabrook at 5v5 was a paltry 40, but away from him, it was 63+. But we’ve been here time and time again. It’s no use shouting for Seabrook to sit, because really, what else do they have? Forsling? Franson? Slava fucking Voynov? Six more years.

– Ryan Hartman didn’t see many, if any, shifts after his tripping penalty on whichever Sedin submitted his Oscar clip in the second. It hasn’t been a good few weeks for the former first rounder. But then again, what exactly is it that his line, with Anisimov and Wingels tonight, is supposed to do?

– Tough break for Forsberg, who looked good early. The first goal was on him, with Oesterle deferring to the passing lane. You’ll usually take even a backup goalie one on one against Gaunce, but Forsberg let it slip by. But from then on, it was the same old shit, with an unfortunate redirect, a tip, and Brent Seabrook dropping his pants and pissing in the crease doing him in.

– Off the ice, I loved listening to Eddie during the intermissions. He was no bullshit about not letting this game get away, and it was nice to hear.

– At the beginning of the second, Foley practically fell victim to the vapors as he tripped over himself to say how much he liked Bettman’s stance on goalie interference. For those who missed it, Bettman commented about how referees need to trust their instincts and “watch the replay at full speed” instead of slow motion. If that’s really what Bettman thinks, then what’s the fucking point of the goalie-interference replay in the first place? Isn’t watching at full speed and trusting your instincts precisely what referees do for a living? Fuck off, Gary, you no-responsibility-taking wet fart.

This was a game the Hawks had to have, and they filled their diapers. But DeBrincat and Schmaltz scored pretty goals, Kampf led all players in possession at 5v5, Kempný and Murphy led the possession share for Hawks D-men at 5v5, and away from Seabrook, Gustafsson was good. If the Hawks make the playoffs, it will be on a wing and a prayer, but the future isn’t as terribly bleak as the present looks.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Tommyknocker Imperial Nut Brown, then High Life.

Line of the Night: “Unlucky break halfway up the guy’s shaft.” –Steve Konroyd, describing a shot in the second period, I assume.

Everything Else

Game #50 – Hawks vs. Predators Preview/Garden Party: As We Live A Life Of Ease

By Sam Fels 2084 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 23-19-7   Predators 29-11-7

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Nationally, NBSCN Chicago locally

MANY MORE OF THEM LIVE NEXT DOOR: On The Forecheck

When you biff what should be the easier part of your schedule, that means you have to get it done against the harder part of the schedule. But hey, why not go for degree of difficulty when you’ve got nothing else to lose? The Hawks begin a pretty tricky stretch of the campaign tonight, with their post-All Star break slate taking them to the West’s best team (yes they are, fuck off Vegas) before heading back out West which didn’t go so well last time. And if the Hawks have any designs on making something of this season, they don’t get any mulligans anymore.

And this is probably not the time to be catching the Predators, even if this comes one game early for Filip Forsberg’s return (not that he regularly torches the Hawks or anything). They’ve won seven of the last eight, and the only loss in that time was losing a game of pitch and toss to the Lightning. So yeah, they haven’t been beaten in regulation since January 2nd. They just got done thwacking the Devils in New Jersey before the break when they barely cared. If you’re looking for a silver lining, and you’ll have to dig, these wins haven’t exactly come against world beaters. The Yotes twice, the Kings, the Oilers, and the Panthers are the trophies on the wall for the month of January. Fuck, even the Hawks beat the Oilers twice.

While the Preds only sit one point back of the Jets and have three games in hand on them and are thus poised to show them a clean pair of heels right quick, there are cracks in the foundation underneath this team. While usually a staple of Peter Laviolette team, this team metrically is not very impressive. They’re exactly a dead-even possession team at 50 CF%, and they actually give up way better chances than they create with a pretty paltry 47.7 xGF% as a team. If you go by scoring chance and high-danger scoring chance percentages, they’re in the bottom third of the league in those as well.

Some of this can be attributed to Ryan Ellis only having played the last couple weeks, but that can’t explain it all. As good as Ellis is in both ends of the ice, one player is not making this up or at fault. The Preds don’t create as many chances per game as you’d assume they do given their speed and depth. Pekka Rinne has had to pull their ass out of a sling pretty often, and when he hasn’t Juuse Saros mostly has. That’s who the Hawks will get tonight as Rinne is preserved for a couple more days after the break.

The Preds lack of punch could be a matter of just pacing until the spring. It could be that Ryan Johansen has looked like the over-fed pile of earlobes that he did at times in Ohio and not the dynamo who’d eat your heart last spring. Totally not a coincidence that he signed a new contract that pays him $8 mildo until the sun swallows us all this summer, then.

The Preds have been picked up by their depth though, with Fiala, Smith, and Jarnkrok all scoring more than 10 goals off the top line. And as they do, they pour goals and points in from the back end, with PK Subban leading them in scoring and Josi and Ekholm both having more than 20 points as well. The return of Ellis only exacerbates this, and though Josi and Ellis are playing together at the moment Lavvy always has the option of splitting them up and having scoring threats on all three pairings. They’re about the only team in the league that can threaten that.

For the Hawks, there don’t appear to be any changes from last Thursday’s demolition of the Red Wings, and nor should there be. We want to see Top Cat get more chances to play with actual talent, and if anyone is going to wake up Brandon Saad it’s Patrick Kane. The third line is still something of a jumble but the 4th line is definitely more interesting as a speedy Pollock painting than whatever it was Wingels and Bouma did (though Wingels is still ahead of Sharp on the third line, which is fine). Anton Forsberg gets the start after being solid enough against Detroit.

This month is filled with games against teams either right around the Hawks or ahead of them, aside from Vancouver on Thursday and they didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory last time they were there. They see the Flames twice, Ducks, Stars, Wild, Kings and Sharks. This ain’t do disco, this ain’t no time for foolin’ around.

 

Game #50 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #48 – We Need New Pornos. Guess I’m Still Writing – Hawks 2, Leafs 2 (Leafs Win Sap Boil)

By John Pullega 2261 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Do you remember wanting to do a fatality in Mortal Kombat II on Sega Genesis, but the combo was 15 buttons long and you were fucking 10 so you couldn’t finish it on time? That’s what this game was. To the bullets.

– Brent Seabrook had an eventful game. Like a post-binge-drinking shit, it started off nice, then turned into a wet pile of unidentifiable slop. The PP goal was a thing of beauty, the half-assery on the missed icing call can be forgiven, but after that, I sat wondering where all that $7 million leadership we keep hearing is so integral to the Hawks’s success was. I wanted so badly to write about what a great game he had—because early on it was good and I want him to turn it around so bad—but in a microcosm of his year, he managed to back down from a strong start and settle into a disappointing finish.

I’m not here to blame the outcome on Seabrook, but it’s hard to argue against the idea that the air came out of the team after the Leafs’s first goal. If the organ-I-zation is going to justify suiting up Seabrook by pointing to his leadership, that botched call is a perfect spot for him to showcase it. Instead we get a whole lot of yelling at the linesman and a report from whoever’s filling in for Pierre that there’s no talking, no urgency on the bench for the Hawks at all. I don’t want to get too sucked in to things that we can’t quantify, so I’ll borrow a line from Q and say I want MORE from Seabs there.

– The first PP goal was a case study in why setting up behind the net is typically a good idea. Credit Wide Dick for swallowing the faceoff impasse, and Schmaltz and Vinnie for having the wherewithal to move the puck behind the net. Vinnie’s awareness on Seabrook’s positioning gave Seabrook all the time in the world to do one of the things he’s always been good at, and he buried the shot off a deflection.

– Speaking of Vinnie, we may have a new candidate for the Kris Versteeg position. You can credit him for the Hawks’s second PP goal, when after what seemed like a decade, he fulfilled every 300-level meatball’s dream (I include myself in this description) and simply shot the puck at the net. One bounce, one Anisimov sweep through the crease, and one inability for the NHL to make the rules regarding goaltender interference clear to even the referees let alone the fans later, Schmaltz had tied the game. The way this team has played, you would have felt safe betting that Vinnie would try to throw the puck to an empty spot on the ice, but he didn’t. On top of that, he exploded from that point onward, setting himself and Keith up for few nice opportunities that they just couldn’t finish. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

– DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair did everything but score, which at this point isn’t just a cute saying. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that when given linemates who aren’t medically required to masturbate with down-lined gloves, Alex DeBrincat is quite the playmaker. He and Duclair had several anus-clenching instances in the first and second periods where the pass was either just a fraction too slow, the angle was a bit too sharp, or Andersen simply had a play to make. If Toews can be bothered to set his internal clock to the same time as everyone else instead of assuming he has more time than he does, I can see this line destroying the Earth, which means Sharp and Bouma will be with Toews tomorrow.

– I want to say I’m getting itchy about Saad, but it might just be angst at this point. The underlying numbers are strong and he’s still a force in transition. But he’s on pace for a mere 40 points this year, which would be the lowest he’s had since his 27 during the Season In A Can. I like the idea of him with Schmaltz and Kane, but after the first period, that line seemed to fade into the background a bit. This is less a call for change and more a vain cry of desperation for the Man Child to pull a Hossa and carry the team.

– Through the first 14:44 of the game, the Sharp–Anisimov–HEART MAN line had a 0 CF%. They bumped it up to 30–20–30 by the end of the period and ended the game with a 50–40–50, but that doesn’t really answer what this line does. This isn’t a complaint so much as a resignation that the depth just might not be there for the classic 3-and-1 setup the Hawks like to run.

– The Jurco–Kampf–Vinnie line is the Hawks’s Autobahn, in that they go really fast just because and put punctures in your furniture from the grip you have to hold when they’re out there. Kampf also saw extended time on the PK and didn’t look horrible doing it. If I were a gambling man, I’d bet on Kampf being Quenneville’s Kruger going forward.

– Glass Jeff was fine for a guy who’s spent most of his career flying through nine time zones to play hockey. You get what you get with him, and there’s really no excuse for losing games against the Ning and the Leafs when he allows just two goals apiece. It’s hard to get mad at him for the shootout diaper crapping, because without a top-tier goaltender, shootouts are a crapshoot.

– I’d like to dedicate an entire bullet to what a gigantic, braying, shitting horse’s ass Mike Milbury is. I don’t know who finds his “back in my day” drunk-uncle schtick charming, but this dinosaur-riding assnose is the pinnacle of insufferable. Anyone who enjoys or even tolerates his continued employment as anything other than “guy who gets stuck in a porta potty while people who are somehow lesser-rank assholes tip it over” ought to be drawn and quartered. He couldn’t wait five minutes, and I mean that literally, before implying that the Hawks lost the Hjalmarsson–Murphy trade. The fact that this rockhead has the mental faculties to imply anything at all would be impressive if the thing he were implying weren’t categorically false. What an outrageous and unabashed dickhead.

It’s hard to get mad about games like this because this is kind of what the Hawks are this year. They managed a point when they needed two, but some of the younger guys—Schmaltz, Duclair, Top Cat, Kampf, and Vinnie Smalls—looked more or less good doing it. This season may not be what we wanted, but there are still bullets in the chamber. Whether they fire them this year or next is anyone’s guess.

Beer du Jour: High Life for this low life.

Line of the Night: Mike Milbury implying the Hawks would be better with Hjalmarsson than Murphy. I’m not dignifying his actual words by going back and listening to them again. Fuck him.

Everything Else

Game #45 – I ain’t no early riser: Red Wings 4, Blackhawks 0

By Adam Hess 2219 0

The Blackhawks and Red Wings played a hockey game at 11:30am on a gosh darn Sunday morning. On the same weekend as an NFL Playoff Game. That decision by the NHL alone was stupid, but it was not the stupidest part of this game. Just let me get through this:

– The Red Wings got started early with a goal less than five minutes in. This goal was comical on the Blackhawks part because Anthony Anthony-see-you (or something like that) took the puck wide below the goal line and then somehow put it through three Blackhawks to a waiting Dylan Larkin. He had a wide open net, and even if he didn’t Jeff Glass was in goal, so he scored. The three Hawks that allowed the pass through them were Keith, Oesterle, and Schmaltz. So.

– The second goal came from Mike Green, who slammed a one-timer home after a not-very-intimidating rush by the Wings was answered by a completely uninspired and careless back check by the Blackhawks. There were 3 Hawks going back with the play to try and stop 4 Wings, and right after Green scored the other two Hawks came into the picture – they were Brandon Saad and Vinostroza. First banner moment for this line of the day, more to come!

– The second period was basically nothing worth noting, though one moment that did stick out was an actually good save that Jeff Glass made! Except it was only a necessary save because he completely overcommitted as Ant-man came up the wing wide below the net (funny, he kept doing that and kept getting away with it), then basically froze up and looked around like “well shit, I’m fucked” before realizing the puck was still behind the net and he reacted like a lame duck, flopping across the crease and and barely stopping the puck. So good job cleaning up your own mess, Jeff! Please go away now.

-Goal number three. Oh, goal number three. A two on two rush toward the home team’s net, as both teams change, in the third period probably *should* bode well for the home team, because their bench is closer to the net. However, as Ray Ferraro emphasized for us, Anthony Mantha left his bench and skated 100 feet to take a pass and score a goal before a Blackhawks forward even got into the camera shot. That forward was Jonthan Toews. Hooray.

– I don’t even care about what happened on the fourth goal. It was a mess and the game was already over when it happened. The game was probably already over when Larkin scored.

– PLEASE LET THIS BE THE END OF JEFF GLASS. He isn’t a good story, no matter what every single fucking broadcast team on the Hawks games say. Pretty much every good moment he’s had has just been him cleaning up a mess of his own making, through bad rebound control or a bad read or both. 30 year old NHL rookies do not suddenly become actually good NHL goalies. Just end this pain before it consumes us all. And Corey Crawford please come back soon.