Everything Else

Preseason Game #5 – Ottawanna Go Ta Bed – Hawks 1, Senators 2

By John Pullega 1801 0

Tonight’s preseason game was as invigorating as a toenail-clipping party. That’s about par for the course when both Ottawa is involved and Garbage Dick is on the sidelines. We did learn a little bit in this game though, so let’s get through it.

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– In true FFUD form, just a few hours after Hess wrote about how you’ll never really notice John Hayden out there, John Hayden was probably the most noticeable Hawk for most of the game. The Hayden–Marcus Kruger–Andreas Martinsen line was by far the best performer on the ice for the Hawks tonight, which is both good and bad: Good in that it’s always encouraging to see the fourth line dominate possession like they did, bad in that your fourth line probably shouldn’t ever be the most noticeable line, especially against a team contending for the first overall pick (IF THEY STILL HAD IT THAT IS). Hayden’s performance got him bumped up to the “second” line with Schmaltz and Anisimov later in the game, and while he wasn’t as noticeable in that role, he sure earned it.

– With Hayden moving up, Dylan Sikura got bumped down to the fourth line in the second half of the game. The hawk-eyed Mark Lazerus suggested that this could potentially be a death knell for Sikura’s hopes of breaking camp, especially with Luke Johnson and David Kampf playing relatively lights out. It’ll be a huge disappointment if Sikura has to start in the AHL, as just about everyone assumed he would be an offensive contributor out of the gate. Something to keep an eye on.

– Anton Forsberg only gave up two goals, and the first one was on blown coverage from “Hard J” Henri Jokiharju and Dominik Kahun. The second was on a Joe Louis Arena-esque bounce off the end boards. Overall, he looked decent, but he always looks like an eighth grader nervously asking his crush to dance with him when under pressure. There’s a loudness to his playing style that always has you on edge it seems.

– Jokiharju is going to have a pretty steep learning curve to overcome on the defensive side of the puck, but that’s not the end of the world. His offensive instincts are there. He ended up with a 45 CF% on the night, spending most of his time with Keith.

– Thank fuck Alex DeBrincat is 5’7” and fell to the Hawks in the draft last year (with the pick they got for Andrew Shaw. Never forget that.). The pass he conjured through Chabot’s legs on the Jonathan Toews goal slipped past three Senators total, and was simply a sight to behold. They may have brought Saad in to reinvigorate The Captain, but Top Cat on his left side is going to be the Michelangelo to his Renaissance.

– I’ve been pissing and moaning about Brandon Saad on the third line with Chris Kunitz and Luke Johnson since it’s been announced, but his play was deserving of his status tonight. He had a few unforced turnovers early and never really got into a groove. He finished with a disappointing 44.44 CF%. There might be a couple of mitigating factors here: Namely, Kunitz and Johnson are grinders and Saad was playing on his off wing, which he’s never really done, but that’s not much of an excuse. With the Nick Schmaltz–Artem Anisimov–Sikura line being the only line to be more of a ghost out there, I still think putting Saad with Schmaltz and Patrick Kane will be best for everyone, but his performance tonight didn’t inspire confidence. The Fels Motherfuck knows no bounds, apparently.

– Let’s cut this “Nick Schmaltz on the wing” horseshit out now.

Join us next week when we watch the Hawks play the fucking Senators again, because nothing worth doing ever comes easy.

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By John Pullega 1957 0

No one, and I mean no one, was happier to hear about the Brandon Saad for Artemi Panarin trade last year than me. In fact, I distinctly remember writing something to the effect of “Is there really anyone out there who would rather watch Panarin than Saad on the ice?” in the early stages of the season. Call it a proto-Fels Motherfuck, because the answer to that question was a resounding “Yes, we all would.” And yet, this is the hill I will die a bloody death on, because Brandon Saad, regardless of performance last year, fucks. And this year, he will fuck again.

2017–18 Stats

82 GP – 18 G, 17 A

56.7 CF%, 60.2 oZS%

Avg. TOI 17:30

A Brief History: By pretty much all measures, the Panarin–Tyler Motte (lol) for Saad–Anton Forsberg trade was a loss for the Hawks in 2017–18. Whereas Saad went on to post his lowest point total since his rookie year during the season-in-a-can, Pantera built off his first two outstanding seasons, with 82 points (27 goals) last year away from Patrick Kane.

We went over Saad’s struggles multiple times last year. I wrote a fucking doctoral thesis on how last year was one of Saad’s best years of his career by all metrics other than points. His even-strength CF% and CF% Rel were both second highest of his career. Only Jonathan Toews had a better CF%, and no one had a better CF% Rel than Saad. Other than Tommy Wingels, no Blackhawk had a larger discrepancy between xGF% (51.62) and GF% (45.1) than Saad. Saad also logged his lowest PDO of his career BY FAR, with a withering 97.5 versus a career average of 100.4. Combined with his far-below-average shooting percentage (7.6% vs. a career 11.8% prior to last year) and the fact that no one he played with regularly scored, there were plenty of people ready to declare Brandon Saad dead.

Fuck that.

Brandon Saad isn’t far from being the Hossa Lite we all expect and need him to be. It really is as simple as him having a bit more luck on his shooting. It never looked like Saad had lost a step or was dogging it out there. Outside of maybe lowered confidence from shooting a full 4% lower than his career average, Saad looked just as good as he always did, and all the numbers—besides points—show that. If Saad had shot at just his career average, he’d have had 28 goals on the season, which would have been second most of his career.

But no one wants to listen to the notes he’s not playing. Fortunately, we won’t have to this year.

It Was the Best of Times: This is easy. Saad is going to be just 26 this year, and I don’t think we’ve even seen his final form yet. Playing on a line with Schmaltz and Kane, Saad takes every “trade Saad” proclamation ever uttered personally and tosses a 15% shooting percentage on 240 shots, good for 36 goals. He also contributes 55 assists, turning himself into the 90-point monster some people thought he might have been last year. He continues to be a possession behemoth, which makes Schmaltz and Kane even more dangerous than they were last year. He single-handedly keeps that line well above water on the possession ledger and even contributes on the second PP unit.

It Was the BLURST of Times: The worst thing that can happen to Saad is an extended injury, something that keeps him out for weeks like our woebegone Irish Son Connor Murphy. Unless he’s hurt, last year is probably as bad as it gets for Saad. It’s still possible, yet highly unlikely, that he’s now an 8% shooter, but there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that last year’s piss fest was anything other than an outlier. It’s also unlikely that he’ll be traded—which was one of our fears this summer—and after StanBo told Tom “Team Grit” Dundon that a Faulk-for-Saad trade was a non-starter, I don’t think there’ll be much worry about losing our Syrian Savior to trade anytime soon.

Prediction: I’m going all in on Saad this year. 30 goals, 40 assists, leads the team in CF% Rel. Helps Kane get to 95 points, helps Schmaltz break 50 for the first time. Is a complete nightmare for opponents on the PK. Chips in a few goals in the second PP unit (which, if you’re scoring at home, will be comprised of Gustafsson, Ejdsell, and Saad by my count. Throw in Schmaltz and Wide Dick, and there’s what I think the second-unit PP should be).

Everything else might go wrong for the Hawks this year. But Brandon Saad will not be one of them. Like a phoenix rising from Arizona, Brandon Saad will show us all why trading Panarin for him wasn’t for naught.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

Jan Rutta

Erik Gustafsson

Henri Jokiharju

Nick Schmaltz

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Victor Ejdsell

Jonathan Toews

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews: Jonathan Toews

By Rose Rankin 2073 0

Oh, Jonathan Toews, what are we to believe? Is it all downhill from here? Is the slow, sad decline inevitable? Should we abandon all hope and just accept that the glory days are over and become accustomed to the wilderness stretched interminably before us? Alright, alright, that’s a bit dramatic—and particularly because it’s not actually that bad. Toews is not that bad. And with the right amount of weird hockey luck, he may be due for a renaissance. Let’s take a look:

2017-18 Stats

74 GP – 20 G – 32 A

56.8 CF% – 57.3 oZS% – 42.7 dZS%

19:41 Avg. TOI

A Brief History. We pored over Toews’ performance a few times last year, and the Cliffs Notes version is he had shitty luck, and a linemate with even shittier luck. All this led to a lower point total than usual, which wouldn’t be concerning in and of itself, except that it was the continuation of a trend of decline that started in 2016. Also you just expect your top-line center to be closer to 60+ points, not barely breaking 50, and we’ve (rightly) come to expect the most elite level of play from Toews.

But as we pointed out, Toews’ underlying numbers were good: for example, his xGF% was 52.1 at evens, his possession numbers were solid (56.8 CF% at evens, 58.4 all situations), and his CF% Rel at 4.4 was fourth best on the team. And two of the three guys in front of him on that list were linemates Brandon Saad and Weiner Anxiety (no skypoint). So he clearly had the puck and had a better chance of keeping the puck than not, but his shots weren’t converting to as many goals. Saad’s off year also meant Toews had fewer assists than he normally would. So it seems that much of his struggles last year were due to things like rolling pucks, weird bounces, a goalie standing on his head…I mean, if you’re doing the right things and not scoring, there has to be some fluky shit at play that you can’t control. The problem is, how long can that fluky shit go on, and when does it stop being fluky?

It Was the Best of Times. We all know what the best-case scenario is: Toews pulls an Anze Kopitar and has a bounce-back year, scoring around 70 points, bringing Top Cat into the ranks of elite top-liners with him, and leading a not-pitiful power play (which alone would increase his point total over last year). I keep harping on having Brandon Saad on the top line with Toews and DeBrincat, but after watching him, Schmaltz, and Kane in admittedly brief preseason action, I think we need to find a worthwhile winger (i.e., not Chris Kunitz) to skate with Toews and Top Cat. Who that could be is anyone’s guess—Eggshell? Kahun? Sikura? Who the hell knows, particularly with Q shaking up the lines in camp recently. Like Pullega explained yesterday, there is a decent case to be made for Ejdsell on right wing, with his big shot and playmaker potential. However it shakes out, in this fantasy world we have an aging experienced, resurgent Jonathan Toews flanked by gifted youngsters and the result is a dominating top line.

It Was the BLURST of Times. We also know what the worst-case scenario is: Toews doesn’t rebound but rather gets slower, continues struggling to score, and has at best one winger to pass to. Stuck with useless-clod Kunitz, who couldn’t corral a pass to save his life in the preseason game the other night, Toews’ point total declines and, with fewer quality chances, that shooting percentage continues to tank. The power play remains total clown shoes, and even though he’s not really playing like a 1C, there isn’t a way to gracefully ease him to another line.

Prediction. I’m cautiously optimistic about this one—I think Toews has a better year, if not an amazing year. There will be linemate shenanigans as Q pulls his usual bullshit, but at some point they’ll settle on someone who doesn’t make you cringe, and when that combination does get worked out he’ll rack up just over 60 points on the season. The power play will be not as wretched as last year and that will help the increased point total as well. Please note I didn’t say the power play would be good, only that it will be less horrific. Toews’ possession numbers will stay strong, but his speed won’t markedly improve (maybe it’ll improve a little; he’s certainly a health nut and can probably gain a step back but it won’t be earth-shattering). And if Quenneville loses his job, Toews will be leaned upon and lionized even more by the media for his LEADERSHIP and all that jazz. The Hawks made him the face of the organization…we’re going to keep looking at it.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

Jan Rutta

Erik Gustafsson

Henri Jokiharju

Nick Schmaltz

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Victor Ejdsell

Everything Else

My Realization, Q’s Realization, And All Seven And We’ll Watch Them Fall

By Sam Fels 2069 0

Halfway through the preseason, and it’s taken me that and months–perhaps even a year or more–to realize what bothers me so much about whatever “the plan,” the Hawks have here. What can I say? I’m a slow learner, runner, and just about everything else.

Perhaps it’s the surprise at just how little buzz I or anyone else feels just more than a week out from the season starting. From Crawford’s injury to the lack of activity over the summer that would rise above a beer belch, to Connor Murphy’s injury and whatever else, it seems the only thoughts we give the Hawks right now are which tickets we’re going to sell and just how bad they might be. It’s not exactly greeting the season with glee and a hug.

And this weekend, I finally figured out why, at least for myself. All summer, and really last year as well when the Hawks failed to do anything to improve their lot in life (which would have been folly anyway), the line from Madison St. was that the Hawks wanted to keep their powder dry because they had to sign Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat to long-term extensions and there were other kids they were excited about.

And I started to play that out in my head. And I’m sure next summer sees both of those players get their new contracts. And this season we’ll find out whatever Henri Jokiharju is, maybe. Adam Boqvist has already shown what he could possibly do. There’s Ian Mitchell at Denver. And I guess I get it.

But locking in all those players just locks in the team already have. And that team is already not good enough to do anything anyone’s going to write poetry about. The Hawks are basically holding out to keep this team that will barely scratch out a playoff place if everything goes right. They’re afraid of breaking THAT team up, not the one that actually did do things people wrote things about in a lyrical fashion, because it’s already gone. And I’m not convinced they know the difference.

Because as much as we love Schmaltz and Top Cat, they’re probably second-line players. Maybe Top Cat maxes out as a top-line winger. Maybe if Schmaltz absolutely balls out he’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. But as we’ve seen with RNH, he’s a #2 center on a team that wants to do anything of note.

Maybe two years down the line Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist have completely transformed the blue line, and maybe that’s good enough to make up for the forward corps deficiencies. Maybe. But how big are those deficiencies when Toews is 34 and Kane is 33? What is Keith at that point?

Nowhere in the pipeline is a true #1 center. We don’t even really know if there’s a #1 defenseman, though at least they can hope on a couple guys. You can’t win without those things. Maybe Collin Delia is a future #1 goalie? How many years is that away?

You can get those types of players through any fashion, of course. The Hawks likely won’t be able to draft one because they’ll never be bad enough to really be in the running for a top-three pick unless the bottom falls out in a way we can’t predict or the balls bounce in a freakish (read: rigged) way. They don’t have the mustard to trade for one, or so it seems.

But there were two franchise-turning players available this summer. The Hawks wouldn’t even put themselves in the room with them. Or maybe they couldn’t. They sure seemed to want everyone to know they weren’t after John Tavares or Erik Karlsson. How often do those types of players become available as the finished product? Why would you not at least attempt to see what it would take? Why would you choose the unknown over the known?

Look at the Bears and Khalil Mack. He’s the finished article. There are no questions. When a generational talent is out there, you go get him. Suddenly, the Sharks are West favorites. Worry about your “possibles” tomorrow. Today is for “definites.” What’s the plan for the Hawks to get those types of players? Is it bottoming out? Sure doesn’t seem like it. It’s not signing one, clearly. It’s not trading for one, clearly. So what’s the plan?

Right now it looks like the Hawks have a plan to build a team that’s a 6th-seed at best for a few years. Boy that’s exciting.

-When Q first started hinting that he was not ruling out Boqvist making the team straight-up, because I’m a cynical sort I thought it was just another thumbed-nose at his GM Stan Bowman. He’s done it before. “Oh, Stan wants this young d-man in Jokiharju to make the team so I’m gonna choose another one BECAUSE I’M JUST THAT SMART.”

But the more I thought it over, the more I want to think that Quenneville just sees the way the league is going and how teams are going to have to be built. We’re not far away from the stay-at-home, conservative blue-liner going the way of Gimbels. Some point soon, teams are just going to dress six or seven d-men who can all move and all play with the puck and make their teams play faster. It’s the only way to counter more and more forward groups that are entirely made up of racing bikes.

I’d like to think Q knows this, and I’d like to think he knows that he really only has Gustafsson and Keith on a good day who can do that. There’s always room for more speed, and whatever the big problems Boqvist might have at the top level he can move and he can play with the puck. He can get the Hawks out of trouble himself. And they need more of it, wherever they can get it and whatever form it comes in.

Which is one reason I’d like to see the Hawks dress seven d-men most nights. First off, they don’t have 12 forwards. Andreas Martinsen or John Hayden or David Kampf or Matthew Highmore will be flanking Marcus Kruger, and no one’s going to give a flying fornication if they only have to use one of them. Meanwhile, when Murphy returns healthy it opens up a spot for another d-man, and while it’s not saying much they’re at least of higher quality than whatever is pretending to be a fourth-line winger right now.

It provides more shelter for Jokiharju. It gives you more flexibility to go offensive or defensive when the situation calls.

The real point is that extra forward spot can be used to give any of Saad, Kane, Top Cat, Schmaltz, Sikura, an extra few shifts per game. Even Toews with Kruger playing wing for a spot. It’s akin to batting your best hitter 2nd. Over a full season that extra ABs add up. Those extra shifts would add up. And really, games and standings can be decided on a handful of goals here or there. Why wouldn’t you give your best players more chances to get them? An extra two or three shifts a night isn’t going to paralyze anyone for a season.

This won’t happen of course, because the Hawks dressed seven d-men once last year and they gave up a touchdown to the Devils. But the case is right there for it.

Everything Else

Preseason #2 Nothing to See Here — Hawks 2, Red Wings 4

By Rose Rankin 1639 0

There really wasn’t much of note but we should get used to that, right? Tonight’s cast was two lines and a bunch of no-names (or laughable names, in some cases). Let’s do this:

Box Score

–The second line of Saad-Schmaltz-Kane looked pretty dreamy. They scored the first goal but prior to that had decent chances and passing to spare. I’ve already made it clear I want Saad back on the top line, but if the production and chemistry works out, there’s not much I can say. We’ll see if Quenneville keeps them together…because the top line could still use Brandon Saad.

–On that note, there was some shitty passing and general disjointedness from the top line of Kunitz-Toews-Top Cat, which should surprise no one. Chris Kunitz did nothing to demonstrate that he belongs on the top line, which also should be the most obvious statement possible.

–Adam Boqvist had some nice moves, particularly in the first period when broke up a solid scoring chance, and managed to jump up in the play and have a scoring chance himself. He’s still just a kid and will likely be sent off to the juniors netherworld, but there maybe is some hope for a distant future of decent defensemen?

–Not Brandon Manning though. Tuulola and Carlsson (no, not the right Karlsson, it was a burr under my saddle all night) didn’t look great either, but ah who gives a shit. Foley had a lot of fun singing “Lo-lo-lo-lo-LOLA” though.

–We’re going to miss Corey Crawford this season. Now I know I said that Kunitz being subpar on the first line was the most obvious statement possible, but I was wrong. This one is the most obvious statement possible. Forsberg got hung out to dry a bit by inexperienced defensemen, but he and Lankinen would make the initial save, give up a rebound and blow it. It’s going to be a long one, folks.

–Character-from-an-Emily-Bronte-novel Mackenzie Entwistle scored in the second period, which is just fun to have a reason to say that guy’s name. It will quite possibly be the last time we do.

It’s only game two of the preseason, none of this REALLY makes a difference, and we know that the coaches are evaluating which of the young’ins will earn some of the last roster spots. But while there were some flashes of decency (hello, second line), there’s still a long way to go.

 

Everything Else

August Mishegas: Schmaltz, Saad, Whatever Else We Dug Out Of Our Ear

By Sam Fels 2655 0

Heading on vacation for the week, so let’s clear some stuff out before it’s all day drinking and yelling at college friends.

-Late to the train on this, but you can excuse me if I totally forgot the Detroit Red Wings existed. Anyway, they inked Dylan Larkin to a five-year extension, one that will carry a $6.1M hit. This has some bearing on the Hawks, because they’ve made a lot of noise about keeping some head room on the cap for when Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat, and any other jamoke that decides to have a good year, have to sign extensions themselves. And we know the Hawks are loathe to play hardball. They’ll either basically acquiesce to whatever any player they like wants, or they’ll trade them to Carolina.

Larkin’s deal is going to be something Schmaltz’s agent circles and uses as a starting point. While they’re hardly the same player, their production looks pretty similar. Larkin put up 77 points in his first two seasons, and Schmaltz has put up 80. Larkin is probably the better goal-scorer, but Schmaltz’s 22 is only one off what Larkin did as a rookie and hasn’t matched since.

What will have the Hawks a little worried is if Schmaltz bust out in his third season the way Larkin did, doubling his point-total from the previous season to this one just past. Ok, if Schmaltz did that he’d be a 100-point player so that’s not going to happen. And really, there isn’t too much where Schmaltz can bust. He shot 17.8% last year, and doesn’t appear to be the type who can mutate a 20%+ year. That 17% might even be an aberration. If he produces more shots, that would be an area where you could see the production rise out of. Schmaltz only fired off 1.5 shots on net per game, and just a little under three attempts. It’s not hard to envision playing a full year with Kane where that could go up, and if the percentages remained where they were and he tickles 30 goals he could become way expensive in a hurry.

Larkin also played with only middling talent, though Anthony Mantha is probably slightly more than that. Thomas Tatar really isn’t. Schmaltz is going to get a better platform, and a 60+ point season sees him in the $7 million range. No, it really could. Since The Great Lockout Of ’05, 34 players have managed 140 points or more in their first three seasons. All of them became at least what would be $6 million players today. Here’s the list in case you want to peruse.

-Scott Powers caught up with Brandon Saad’s summer training today at The Athletic. And if you want a lesson in saying nothing while looking like you’re saying nothing, check out the quotes from Brian Keane.

“We’ll track a number of different stats and things that are specific to the type of player that we’re looking at and try to identify areas they’re really excelling at, as well as areas we think they can improve upon,”

Wouldn’t that be every summer program?

“It really starts with the video and assessing all those different things we’re looking at and then start game-planning from there what we can to do to devise a plan for him during the summer.”

Yeah, again, wouldn’t this be every program? Or do most guys just go out and bail hay on some Canadian farm? I guess Saad would be on a Pennsylvania farm but you get the point.

“He can do that especially off a rush or a loose puck play where there’s a turnover and you have someone in front of him. He can use defenders as screens and read where the stick is to change the point of release or create that space for the shot. That’s been something we’ve focused on a lot. But also identifying where to pop in and out of seams and having a sense for when he can use those wheels to hit that seam and time it in a nice way where he’s giving himself a really good opportunity at the weak side or staying outside the pack and then reentering at the right time.”

Doesn’t this all boil down to “getting open?” Sure, changing shooting angles with the puck on your stick is something you can improve and not something Saad does a lot of, but if he doesn’t already have a sense of how to lose himself to the defense, is that something you can just learn?

Anyway, if it improves Saad’s accuracy or gives him a more lethal shot, I guess I’m all for it. Sounds like they’ve been saying what we’ve been saying, but whatever.

-NBC announced it was altering its hockey schedule a bit, which is good news. I guess. I mean the Hawks still appear more than anyone and they suck out loud, but mighty oaks from little acorns. The big news is that “WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIVALRY ARGH BARGH GRAB YOURSELF SPIT AND FART” is going the way of the dodo. Now it’s just “Wednesday Night Hockey” and more often than not will be a double-header. This is good news, as it allows NBC to get the likes of McDavid, Gaudreau, Karlsson, and various California players that are old now on national TV more often without waiting for them to visit the Flyers or Rangers. There will be more of a diverse lineup, as there should be, to highlight teams that are actually good instead of names you might know. If you can believe it, there’s actually a Jets vs. Leafs game on the slate.

Fine, whatever. It can’t hurt, though if they’re still going to have two drunken monkeys in the studio it’s still going to be an annoying broadcast. But at least it’ll be teams you want to watch, instead of more Hawks or Milbury breaking down why you need a Wayne Simmonds to win while he takes yet another dumbass penalty.

All right, jerks. Talk to you next week. Maybe.

Everything Else

Jokiharju, Saad, And Figuring Out The Puzzle

By Sam Fels 2535 0

It feels like Stan Bowman is going to have another “June 23rd” in the coming week. That was the day last year when he went more aggressive than we’d seen before, some might say he went “a little funny in the head,” and shipped out Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson (hilariously not telling his coach) for Brandon Saad and Connor Murphy. We’ve already been down the road on whether these were good trades or not, so we don’t have to do that again right now.

What’s clear is that Stan knows the temperature under his office chair is getting turned up, and Rocky Wirtz going “Kiss Of Death” after his flavorless Manhattan of a season in Crain’s made that abundantly clear, as well as John McDonough stomping around the Hawks offices like Dracula and Miranda Priestly’s lovechild.

So earlier in the week we talked about Justin Faulk, as that’s been the big rumor. Yesterday, the Sun-Times’s Mark Lazerus (closer than you know…love each other so…Mark Lazerus) put forth a rumor that Faulk might cost the Hawks one Brandon Saad. When reading that for all of us here, we cringe a bit, mostly because we love Saad and mostly because we feel that trading him after this season would A) be selling low and B) evidence that the Hawks don’t really have any sort of plan.

And yet, when you begin to think about it, this might make more sense. While Faulk didn’t have his best year last year, that kind of return for Saad certainly wouldn’t be selling low, per se. As previously stated, the Hawks don’t have a lot of pieces. While we dream about centering a deal around Artem Anisimov, fooling some GM with his goal totals and size for the far too many GMs who are still concerned about that sort of thing, it’s unlikely. The Hawks simply can’t lose Schmaltz, because they don’t have much depth down the middle. DeBrincat is almost certainly untouchable, given that he could very well be a 35-goal scorer if deployed properly. To give you some idea how valuable that is, there were only seven 35-goal scorers in the league this year. Dylan Sikura wouldn’t have much value, one would think. Below the main roster, it’s hard to see what else the Hawks can throw at a team. There’s no surefire prospect, though we’ll get to Jokiharju in a second.

Still, the loss of Saad makes the Hawks look awfully short at forward. You have….this?

– Toews – Hinostroza?

DeBrincat – Schmaltz – Kane

Sikura – Anisimov/Ejdsell – Duclair?

Jurco – Anisimov/Ejdsell – DUHHHHHH?

No offense, but I’m not going to make plans for that team in May. I guess this is the balance. Toss in David Kampf and an almost certainly returning Tommy Wingels (it’s a name, not a condition) and you’re still not inspired to write poetry about it. If the Hawks had another kid you were confident could step in to a top six role, you’d be more comfortable losing Saad, but he doesn’t exist yet.

You could argue the Hawks should just load the top line and let the rest fall where it may and have Top Cat, Toews, and Kane up there and just pray they jump into hyperspace, and maybe that’s the plan. I guess I can live with a second line of Sikura-Schmaltz-Hinostroza… I just won’t live comfortably. Or happily. Or healthily.

Which brings us around to Henri Jokiharju, who signed his entry-level deal yesterday. Now, normally, I would bet pretty good money the Hawks bring him to camp, throw him out in a couple preseason games, and then punt him back to Portland for his last year in the WHL. But this is not a normal time, and both Q and Stan might have to get outside their comfort zone here.

Yes, Jokiharju is only 19. But his numbers compare favorably with Mikhail Sergachev, who played a role on the best regular season team in the league. And Jokiharju did it in the WHL, which is a much tougher scoring environment than the OHL where Sergachev was. He also squares with Ivan Provorov, who has been the Flyers best d-man the past two years (and don’t give me any Ghost Bear bullshit).

Basically, what I’m saying is the Hawks are desperate, and it may come to toss Jokiharju in the deep end and leave with it. That doesn’t mean pairing him with Keith, but a heavily sheltered role with Murphy on his off-side or Dahlstrom or something I haven’t thought of and see where you are after 40 games. If he plays his way up the lineup, even better. But even at his tender age, he almost certainly can give you something in the same usage that Sergachev provided, assuming that Quenneville wouldn’t turn psychedelic purple at the thought of using a d-man who isn’t 20 yet. He did it before with Leddy…though we all know how that went at first.

While Stan might say something about “development,” he isn’t going to be here for the end of Jokiharju’s apprenticeship at lower levels if the Hawks don’t turn it around.

It would take quite the set of tires to pin that much on Jokiharju before he’s ever played professionally, but if the Hawks sold out on him in their minds they might consider cheaper additions on the blue line, like de Haan or Hickey from the Islanders or whatever they could fashion out of Anisimov (which is clearly Nurse from Edmonton because Peter Chiarelli would totally do that) and keep Saad around.

It’s not going to be boring.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Brandon Saad or Sometimes the Bear Eats You

By John Pullega 2369 0

Brandon Saad’s year was an extended cut of Lisa explaining why the electric violinist was better than she seemed. You had to look at the stats Saad WASN’T underwhelming at to appreciate his year. But when the whole point of bringing the guy back was to give Toews more support and even shoot for a 30-goal season, it makes the My Chemical Romance-ian angst over losing Panarin for him more understandable (even though it’s misplaced).

Brandon Saad

82 GP, 18 Goals, 17 Assists, 35 Points, -10, 14 PIM

56.7 CF% (Evens), 5.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 54.93 SCF% (5v5), 52.15 xGF% (5v5), 3.63 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60.2% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much . . . Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain . . . His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

What We Got: Saad had a year of unexpected firsts. It was the first time that he finished with a negative goal differential. It was the first time he finished with a shooting percentage under 10%. It was the first time he finished the year with fewer points than the last. By their powers combined, these aspects turned what was supposed to be the rekindling of our love affair with Hossa Jr. into a season of grumbling and disappointment. And as painful as it is to admit, by the metrics that matter most—namely, goals and points—this was a massively disappointing year for Saad.

We can go on about how Saad had his best possession year since 2013–14 (in which he had a 58.5 CF% in 78 games). We can talk about how Saad’s CF% Rel this year was his best ever in a Hawks sweater (trailing only last year’s 6.4 in Columbus). And you know I want to tell you how all of his problems were anomalous, the result of a precipitous and unforeseen drop in his shooting percentage. (If he had shot at his 11.8 S% average he had prior to this year, he would have had 28 goals this year.)

But with Saad coming off three consecutive 50+ point seasons, that all looks like a bunch of excuses for a poor performance or a stubborn justification for trading Panarin, even though it isn’t. All those numbers bolster the “Saad is still a great player” argument, but they don’t explain why his shooting percentage was down so much.

If you go back and watch some of Saad’s scoring opportunities, you’ll notice that there seems to be about a half-second delay between when you’d expect him to shoot and when he actually took his shot. I don’t know whether this hesitation is a matter of confidence, timing, or simply losing a little bit off his fastball, but it was more noticeable this year than ever before. Rather than puckering your sphincter for what you’d assume would be a scorching one-timer, most times Saad had a good scoring chance, you’d find your shoulders slouchier than usual and your gut hanging over your jeans just a little bit more woefully, knowing that if he didn’t launch the puck straight into the goaltender’s chest, it was going to go a little too high or a little too wide.

Not knowing why is the hardest thing to process. As unfulfilling as it is to read what amounts to a shoulder shrug and a “what can you do,” it looks more like a season-long malaise than some underlying problem, given Saad’s body of work over the last five years. Everything else looked as good or better than expected, except, ironically, for his play with Toews.

While the Saad–Toews tandem was by no means bad, bringing Saad back didn’t have the effect we had hoped. In the 750 minutes they played together at 5v5, they were a possession monster, with a 57+ CF% and a 52+ High-Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%).

But they also got pummeled in High-Danger Goals For Percentage (HDGF%), to the tune of 42+. Away from Saad, Toews sported a throbbing 61+ HDGF%. Away from Toews, Saad had a flaccid 38.89 HDGF%.

Additionally, both Saad and Toews had better—albeit below their average—on-ice shooting percentages away from each other: Together, they had a 6.41%; Saad without Toews had a 7.39% (7.6% individual on the year); and Toews without Saad had an 8.62% (9.5% individual on the year).

All of this is to say what we’ve been saying all year: The chances were there for Saad, and they just didn’t go in. Unless you buy the idea that Saad peaked at 24 (and if you do, go back to work, Peter Chiarelli), there’s no explanation for it other than sometimes the bear just eats you.

Where We Go From Here: Saad was an offensive disappointment, but he did everything else as good or better than before. And if Crawford stays healthy, maybe we’re sitting here talking about how Saad overcame his scoring demons in the playoffs and laughing about how stupid hockey can be. Instead, after an underwhelming year from both the team and the man, we’re subject to asinine chatter about trading Brandon Saad (for what, who knows?). Anyone who tries to sell you that tripe is probably a good candidate for the ol’ Moe Szyslak fork in the eye, given Saad’s career trajectory to this point.

Saad will be 26 next year, right in his prime. He’s still a possession dynamo with outrageous transition speed for a skater his size. And if he produced at just his career rates, he would have had the best offensive season of his career this year. Saad is still young, still important, and still capable of being everything we hoped he would. He just seemed a little hesitant this year. It could just be that Saad–Toews needs a finisher—whether that’s Kane, DeBrincat, or potentially Vinnie—to complete that line. And I can hear the “DAT SOUNDS LIKE ARTEMI PANARIN IF YOU ASK ME” snark a mile away, but when it comes down to it, I’ll take a younger, more well-rounded Saad at $6 million than an $8–10 million sniper like Panarin, if I have to choose one.

Still, Saad will need to prove, for the first time in his career, that this year was a blip for his offensive output. Bowman said he was good for it, and it’s down there somewhere. Let’s let him take another look.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat the Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s Player Reviews: Jonathan Toews or Time To Eat Meat Again

By Adam Hess 4221 0

For the second straight season, it felt like we watched Jonathan Toews go through a year in which he played very well, had solid underlying numbers, and yet due to voodoo or bad luck or the lack of lean meat in his diet he couldn’t find the score sheet. The hilarious part is he still put up 20 goals and 52 points in 74 games, which is still pretty damn good. But his paycheck and role demand more, and his play deserved it. Shall we?

Jonathan Toews

74 games, 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points, -1, 47 PIM

56.14 CF%, 4.79 CF% rel, 53.09 xGF%, 4.19 xGF% rel, 55.15 Zone Start Ratio

I think there’s a lot of value in bookending the preview/review process with players as a writer, which is why I wanted to do this review for Toews after doing the preview earlier this year. Honestly, before looking into any of his numbers, I went back and read said player preview. That presented me with a problem – I, uh, think I might end up repeating myself from that post a lot.

That’s because, like I said to open this one, Toews had another year comparable to his 2016-17 campaign. He had elite shot metrics with that 56.14 CF, the expected goals was nicely in his favor as well at 53.09, and yet a career low shooting percentage drives the production numbers down. Compare those expected goals to his actual GF% of 50.57 and it gives you an even better scope of just how bad his luck was. Spending damn near the entire year with Brandon Saad, who was going through the same damn thing (TEASER: review coming tomorrow from Mr. Pullega), didn’t really help matters.

Let’s play a projection game. After shooting 9.5% this year, his first time below 10% in his career, Jonathan Toews’ career shooting percentage has now dropped to 14.1 percent. If he simply shot that rate this year, he’d have scored 10 more goals. 62 point year in 74 games. That’s good.

Before these last two years, Toews was shooting 15.1% on his career – and while a one percent drop probably doesn’t strike you as huge, to drop a goal per 100 shots after just two seasons is kind of insane. If Toews had shot at 15.1% this year, he has 32 goals. Again, good.

And again Brandon Saad’s career low shooting year definitely impacted Toews as well, likely on the assist side of the ledger. I won’t dig too much into the numbers so as not to steal Pullega’s thunder for tomorrow, but if Saad shot his career rate this year, I bet Toews added anywhere from 2-8 assists to his ledger as well.

So the ultra-optimistic side of this projection game puts Toews at 32 goals and 40 assists, and if you play slightly more conservative you have him at 30 and 32. Either way, you’re looking at somewhere in the 65-70 point range in 74 games played. That is damn near elite production in today’s NHL. “But Twitter told me the sky is falling on Jonathan Toews,” you say! Twitter is wrong. It is always wrong.

A while back I compared Toews to Anze Kopitar, and that comparison is still apt. Kopitar had a much worse 2016-17 than Toews in the luck department, but things swung his way in 2017-18 and he ended up with career highs in shooting percentage, goals, and points, and all of that earned him a Hart trophy nomination and he just might win the damn thing even though it should go to Nathan MacKinnon. But here’s the most encouraging part of Kopitar’s huge year as far as it applies to Toews – his combined shooting percentage from last year with a career low shooting percentage, and this year with the career high, sit right in line with his career numbers and his typical fluctuation of his career.

Obviously there are flaws to some of this numerology I’m doing, but the over-arching point is that things aren’t all bad for Toews unless there is more to this whole thing than shooting percentage. The overall numbers don’t indicate that there is, though, meaning that unless there is some lingering injury that is somehow leading to the decline in shot conversion, everything we know about numbers and regression indicates that Captain Vegan is due for a correction.

And if all else fails, maybe he should start eating steak again. How the fuck could anyone give up steak?

Everything Else

Let’s Laugh At The Dallas Stars, While Also Saving Brandon Saad

By Sam Fels 2905 0

For the entire length of our existence, a valuable trait has been schadenfreude. We haven’t always needed it, but when we have the Canucks, or Blues, or Detroit, or Canucks again, then the Blues again, have always provided a hearty laugh. We’ve had other targets, but no matter how bad things get for the Hawks or how laughable they are for others, we can redirect that to someone else and have a good chuckle and go on about our day with a bounce in our step.

So let’s spend some time chortling at the existence of the Dallas Stars.

They’ve been in our crosshairs for a few years now. Mostly because for about three or four offseasons, there’s a legion of hockey writers who can’t wait to declare them and GM Jim Nill “winners of the offseason.” It’s like clockwork. One trade, or one signing, and suddenly there’s a puddle around hockey media members as they race to to be the first to decree, “THIS TIME THE STARS GOT IT RIGHT! CAN’T WAIT FOR SOME TEXAS BBQ IN JUNE!” Mostly, I’m guessing, because deep down all Canadian hockey writers are shit-kickers who just want an excuse to break out the cowboy hat and boots they keep in the closet and are desperate to wear outside of one week in Calgary.

Five seasons later, and just one playoff series win, and here they are, likely to not even get a chance to win a playoff series. But how could that happen when they hired noted genius Ken Hitchcock? Certainly the planets must be totally out of line for such a thing to happen! He was the final piece! Everyone said so! Because the Stars did an exhaustive coaching search, y’see, and they oh so creatively came up with, “Hey what about that guy who won here that one time like 15 years ago?”

So how did it end up here, five points out with five games to play even after last night’s OT win over the Flyera? Well, you probably have to start with the goaltending, which has put up a combined .902 SV% in March. That’s not going to win you a lot, as you probably know around here.

And really, who could have seen Ben Bishop’s .911 last year, his .905 in March of last season, and that Tampa was so fond of him they couldn’t wait to shove the job to Andrei Vasilevskiy at the first opening to do so, and conclude that maybe Bishop didn’t have it anymore? Certainly not Jim Nill! And look, the guy who spent three years fucking over the Stars by ignoring the goaltending situation has fucked it over by actually paying attention to it! It just gets better!

Like all Hitchcock teams, the Stars definitely keep it tight in their own end but are hardly expansive in the other. While they’re second best in terms of expected goals per 60 against, they’re 16th in expected goals for. That’s a team with one of the best top lines in the league and hardly bereft of talent farther down the lineup with Spezza (though old), Faksa, Janmark, Shore, and a couple others. At least that’s what they’ve told us season upon season now. And yet past the top line there isn’t a forward with more than 40 points. Hmmmm…who’s the GM who drafted and/or keeps this young talent they keep bleating about that keeps getting them beat, I wonder?

So as always with Hitch’s teams, keeping it so close means your goalie had better match your defensive leanings, and probably be better. Just like Jay Gallon in St. Louis, when the bottom drops out on that there is no answer. Because they’re certainly not filling it enough to counteract some wonky goaltending. At least Lindy Ruff managed that once.

Boy, I can’t wait to see how Nill wins this offseason.

-As we nearer the end, and the broadcast keeps shitting on Brandon Saad because he seems like the easy target (or Adam Burish threatens to fight him, which I’m sure would end with Saad turning Burish’s face into silly putty), I have this really uneasy feeling the Hawks will trade him and get to use “cap relief” as the reason to keep anyone from looking at it with any measure of scrutiny.

Let me just share this with you. When it comes to individual even-strength scoring chances per 60 minutes, Brandon Saad is 12th among forwards. 13th on that list? CONNOR FUCKING MCDAVID. Brandon Saad, himself, is getting slightly more chances per 60 minutes than the best player on the planet. When it comes to high-danger chances per 60 minutes, Saad ranks 10th among all forwards. 9th on the list? TAYLOR FUCKING HALL. A very likely Hart finalist is only slightly outdoing Brandon Saad when it comes to getting really good chances.

Now, it would be folly to suggest that “finish” is purely luck. It is not, but it’s too simple to say, “He’s not scoring enough,” when we can dig deeper and see why he might not be scoring enough. As we’ve said all season, Saad’s shooting percentage has bottomed out, Even a return to last year’s 11.4%, instead of this year’s 7.9, would see Saad with 25 goals right now. And assuming the power play could ever get the toad out of its ass it might be closer to 30.

Saad could simply repeat this season, process-wise, have his SH% spike to 13 or 14% because he got to see a couple more hungover goalies than this season, and be a 30-35-goal guy and then we’d get all these “redemption” stories.

Trading Saad when his value would be at its lowest, unless a monster return, would be monumentally stupid. Remember this when the Hawks now invariably do so.