Hockey

Game #8 – Flyers vs Hawks Preview – Burn After Writing

By Matt McClure 1732 0

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RECORDS: Flyers 3-3-1   Hawks 2-3-2

PUCK DROP: 7:30PM CDT
TV/RADIO: NBC Sports Chicago, ESPN+, WGN-AM 720
BAM, LEAVE YOUR FATHER ALONE: Broad St. Hockey

The homestand at the United Center turns down the final stretch for the Hawks with tonight being the 6th of their seven straight on West Madison, and they’ll welcome their Prague travel mates the Philadelphia Flyers, wrapping up the season series between the two of them before the calendar hits November in another brilliant bit of NHL scheduling.

Since returning home from Europe, things have been back and forth for the Cold Ones, at one point losing four straight (three in regulation), and did so on a Western Canadian swing to boot, so at least they have a plausible travel excuse for their uneven play to this point. Most recently they pretty easily disposed of the Knights on Monday night prior to Vegas being here, though they did so early and often on Oscar Dansk appearing in his first NHL game in two years. Regardless, points in October and against overmatched goalies still count, and the Flyers are going to need every win they can get in a suddenly ultra competitive Metropolitan Division.

While Carter Hart hasn’t gotten off to a fantastic start (.907 at evens, .890 overall), which also included getting the hook in a 6-3 ass waxing in Edmonton, he’s going to get the bulk of the starts in net even if The Terminal Case Of Brian Elliott has been solid in his two starts. If the long term goal is to finally develop a stable goaltending presence in Philly, Hart is going to have to work through some of this stuff, and Alain Vigneault and the Flyera brass will have to resist the temptation of chasing spurious playoff hopes behind the aging and always flattering-to-deceive Elliott. It will he Hart’s net tonight, based on reports from the Flyers’ skate.

In front of him, AV seems to have figured out his defensive pairings with all three of them solidly in the black. Ivan Provorov is the defacto #1 here, at least when pointed towards the other net, though he’s not totally helpless in his own end. He’s paired with Matt Niskanen, whose cowboy days are probably over, but is still smart enough with the puck to keep things moving. Shayne Gostisbehere has been relegated to the third pairing with Robert Hagg, and getting the choice zone starts and matchups has helped give the Flyers push on all three pairings. That’s been possible with the emergence of Travis Sanheim as a legit top-4 defenseman, and he’s baby sat by Justin Braun on the second pairing.

Up front, the Flyers have been jumbling things around recently, and they at least worked against Vegas for a night fairly solidly. Claude Giroux has moved back to the middle with his familiar running mate Jakub Voracek on his right and JVR on his left. Neither Giroux or JVR have scored yet this year, but they’re both certainly in a position to break that bubble given how that line is constructed. Sean Couturier slots behind Giroux and will take whatever AV deems as the toughest matchup on a nightly basis. He’ll have Travis Koneckny on his right, who hasn’t stopped scoring since game 1 in Prague, and leads the team with 10 points. Oscar Lindblom is on the opposite side, and as a unit this line is currently sporting a 65 share of attempts in 50 minutes of even strength time together. Offseason acquisition Kevin “Captain Stairwell” Hayes has found himself as the third center already, which is probably where he ideally slots in on a good team anyway regardless of his paycheck. 2018 first rounder Joel Farabee is ahead of schedule on Hayes’ wing, and made his NHL debut against Vegas on Monday. Chris Stewart somehow caught on to the Flyers’ roster on a PTO, so he and Michael Raffl will assuredly contribute a very irritating goal at some point this evening from the fourth line.

As for the Men of Four Feathers, though the process against a better Vegas team on Tuesday was quite solid for 58 minutes, the results still need to be there, and Coach Kelvin Gemstone will now have to do some regrouping of things now that once again Connor Murphy is having crotch issues. With Murphy out, Slater Koekkoek will get his spot in the lineup, and Dennis “I Have The Name Of A Grandfather” Gilbert has been recalled to take the roster spot. Given the tools available, moving Calvin de Haan to the right side with Duncan Keith is about the only reasonable move here, as de Haan’s game is equally as positionally sound as Murphy’s though not quite as mobile. The hope is that trust can still be maintained from Keith, who has looked sprightly in cutting off entry attempts at his own blue line since being paired with Murphy, reminiscent of four or five years ago. Olli Maata will continue to bail water for Brent Seabrook, the only pairing that will remain unchanged. Koekkoek will play with Erik Gustafsson, whose play in a contract year has been unbelievably bad. Viewers at home with leftover pairs of eclipse glasses from two summers ago would be wise to throw those on when these two are out there.

The forward lines for the Hawks will stay the same, and while these groups haven’t been offensively bad at any juncture, they’re certainly not getting home as much as they need to. Alex DeBrincat is fighting it for the first time in his young career, and as was covered on the podcast last night, he’s still within the margins of getting his normal looks/attempts/chances, so it could be just a case of being snake bitten. But ADB is one of two “bad shot makers” that the Hawks have, and if it one of them isn’t finishing, then the results look like they have so far this season. That’s not likely to change tonight, as Coach Vinny Del Colliton would be very wise to keep Kirby Dach away from Coots as much as his humanly possible before he extinguishes any desire the rookie might have in continuing a career in the sport. Robin Lehner gets the net again tonight after another strong performance, though let it be said that Corey Crawford hasn’t exactly been benched, as Crow currently has a .930 mark at even strength, but the .615 while shorthanded might just be torpedoing that a little bit, and SHOULD rebound a little the longer the season progresses.

Alain Vigneault might be a lot of things (a penis and a crybaby for starters), but he’s not a moron, and he basically pioneered the usage of drastically unbalanced zone starts in Vancouver, and he has such a weapon in Couturier now here in Philadelphia. This stretch at home has shown that Beto O’Colliton is at least willing to get elbow deep into matchups when he’s got last change, but tonight he’ll be playing chess against a guy who has a lot more experience in doing so. There are matchups to be found against this Flyers bottom six, but he’ll need to be diligent in finding them. And stay out of the goddamn box (looking at you, 65). Let’s go Hawks.

Hockey

Game #4 – Oilers vs. Hawks – Tension In The Ranks

By Matt McClure 1686 0

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Game Time: 7:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NHL Network, SportsNet 1, WGN-AM 720
Royal Oil: Copper ‘n Blue, Oilers Nation

As the homestand nears its halfway point the Hawks still find themselves winless on the season, and the schedule has done them zero favors with a very early season tilt against the suddenly shit-hot Oilers and arguably the fastest player in the history of the game.

Everything Else

Game #2 – Sharks vs. Hawks Preview – Shield Your Eyes

By Matt McClure 1790 0

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Game Time: 7:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Trillions of Tech Dollars Won’t Solve Homelessness Because It Is Cruel: Fear The Fin

No, unfortunately the season isn’t already over after one game 8000 miles away a week ago. In fact, there are still another 80 of these to get through after tonight’s home opener against the visiting Sharks, which will kick off a seven game homestand, which might be the longest this team has had in over a decade. And fortunately for them, tonight’s opponent comes in as an abject mess.

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Alex DeBrincat

By Adam Hess 1661 0

Do you ever catch yourself? Maybe you’re sitting at dinner with a friend your significant other, talking about the news or whatever, and you have to stop a moment. A wide, ill-intentioned grin spreads across your face. You must look crazy. You start cackling like a maniac. You can’t stop laughing like you’re the fucking Joker. Your friend looks at you with deep concern in their eyes. People around you are staring. It’s uncomfortable for everyone. But you can’t help it. It’s just too hilarious to believe (You signed up for that look when you decided to write here – ED).

You just remembered that the Blackhawks got Alex DeBrincat in the second round.

Does that ever happen to you? Cuz, same. Now please come tell these cops I’m normal and bail me out of jail.

2018-19 stats

82 GP – 41 G – 35 A – 76 P

49.68CF% (0.48 CF% Rel), 59.75 oZS%

53.66 GF% (5.71 GF% Rel), 46.47 xGF% (0.93 xGF% Rel)

17:42 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: DeBrincat showed that his 2017-18 season was no fluke last year, building upon that and then going above and beyond the production. He became a nightmare for opposing penalty killers under Coach Cool Youth Pastor, posting 24 points (13G, 11A) with the extra man. You may be thinking that kind of PP success is artificially inflating his overall numbers, but as I detailed back in April during player reviews, that’s a pretty normal rate for elite scorers. Believe it or not, good offensive players score on the power play. This is news to Joel Quenneville.

DeBrincat also got something of a personal and personnel favor (folks, you get this kinda wordsmithing for just $3.99 a month, and that’s less than half it’s true value) in the form of the Dylan Strome trade. I don’t need to rehash it all, but obviously for Top Cat it must’ve been nice to get a linemate in Strome that A) he was familiar with and B) was not allergic to shooting the puck like Nick Schmaltz was. All of this resulted in Top Cat cementing himself as this team’s third best forward and likely has him positioned for a healthy contract extension this coming season.

It Was The Best of Times: DeBrincat continues to ascend with his offensive abilities, and being able to play with Strome for more of this season helps both of them elevate their games. It’s hard to ask too much more of a guy fresh off a 41-goal season, but DeBrincat is probably capable of pushing that number closer to 45, especially now that the Hawks will have a full season of the Colliton PP system. On top of that, his scoring ability becomes such a threat that defenses have no choice but to focus in on him, opening up the ice for him to use his vision and passing to find others, and he gets his assist total over 40 as well. He ends the seaon with 90+ points and leads the team in scoring, but not until after the Hawks lock him up at 6x$8.5M which will end up feeling like a huge discount.

It Was The BLURST of Times: The Colliton power play turns out to be a mirage, and even Top Cat can’t save it. Even with all the offensive talent the Hawks have, they return to the dark days of the early 2010’s (power play frustration wise, of course) and his production there drops to a meesly 10 points. Meanwhile, his linemates turn out to be huge duds, and he gets dragged down with them. He ends up with a paltry 55 points (oh, the horror!) and that 6x$8.5M extension feels a little expensive suddenly.

Preiction: It’s hard to ask much more from Top Cat than what we’ve gotten from him. He’s already done more than many scouts believed he would in the NHL, but that’s because hockey scouts are egg-brained. I’m somewhat inclined to believe that the Top Cat we saw last year is the Top Cat we will continue to see moving forward, though he’s certainly capable of giving or taking 10 more points. I predict he finishes the year with 43 goals and 40 assists, with something around 30 of the total points coming on the power play. Oh year, and he signs a 6x$8.5M extension. That feels fair, right?

Stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Olli Maatta

By Adam Hess 2075 0

For going on damn near three years now, it’s been obvious to anyone with a brain that the Blackhawks have had lacked a lot on the blue line. We knew that good ol’ Duncan Keith would never be able to keep up his cowboy ways at the elite level he had played at before, and there seemed to be little to-no-help on the way. Last year the Hawks desperately lacked an effective puck mover on the backend who could also defend well. Going into the offseason, they needed to find someone who could shut down the opponent in the defensive zone. Who could, ideally, take away half the ice the way Keith used to, even if not quite as well. They needed someone who could do all that while also being able to get the puck out of the zone once he had it, either by skating or passing. And if they could get all of that in one guy, that’d be ideal.

So they traded for Olli Maatta, who can do none of that.

2018-19 Stats (w/ Penguins)

60 GP – 1 G, 13 A, 14 P

46.51 CF% (-4.42 CF% Rel), 43.36 oZS%

53.75 GF% (-0.08 GF% Rel), 51.53 xGF% (-0.27 xGF% Rel)

15:27 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: At one point Maatta was considered one of the better prospects in the NHL, but due to a series of injuries both on and off the ice, including an unfortunate battle with cancer, he never fully delivered on all the promise. Once considered someone with high offensive upside, especially after having 9 goals and 29 points in 78 games during his rookie season, Maatta has struggled to produce since and has never topped either of those numbers, though he did have 29 points again in 2017-18 when he played all 82 games for the only time in his career. Last year he failed to match that scoring pace and ended up going on IR with yet another injury in March, this one an upper-body injury after taking an uncomfortable hit. He missed all but 5 games from that point on.

Maatta has settled somewhat nicely into your typically “defensive defenseman” role, as despite missing 22 games last year, he finished third on the Penguins in blocked shots and hits. If that sentence sounded positive, it was not meant to. Basically what that means is that despite being a quarter of the season, Maatta spent so much fucking time in his own defensive zone that he had no choice but to throw his dumb body in front of pucks, likely because he was tired of skating around, because that isn’t exactly a strength of his. Blocking a lot of shots is good when you’re Niklas Hjalmarsson, who is good at both preventing shots and getting in front of them, but when you’re getting face-fucked by the opponents at a near-54% clip and 4% below your own team rate, blocking those shots is less impressive skill and more necessary duty.

It Was the Best of Times: Just staying healthy for the full 82 would be a best-case scenario for Maatta as an individual, because again, he’s only done that once. As a player and contributor to the Hawks, it would be ideal if he can return to his scoring pace from ’17-’18 and could end up somewhere in that 23-29 point range. Expecting more than that is foolhardy, but it’s not unrealistic to think he could do that. Moreover, it’d be nice if he cleans up his shit in the defensive zone and is able to fight above the 50% mark on shot attempts. If he can do all of that and be a steady presence on the back end, this could end up being a not-terrible acquisition. On the other hand….

It Was the BLURST of Times: If Maatta plays like he did last year – getting brained by the other team and playing well below team rate on shot attempts, and getting by-and-large lucky on the overall goal differential, while also providing little to nothing of note from a production standpoint, Maatta runs the risk of compounding the issues that ailed the Hawks’ blue line last year rather than offering himself as a solution. If that does end up being the case, him getting injured – which he probably will – would not be such a bad outcome, as bad is that is to say and as harsh as that sounds.

Prediction: Maatta deals with some minor injury stuff but nothing too major, and plays more than 65 but less than 75 games for the Hawks. He makes a modest improvement in the CF% but still finishes below team rate and probably leads the team in blocked shots, which will earn him praise even though it probably shouldn’t. He won’t get back to 2017-18 production but will score 5 goals and 15 points, which will be fine but not make much of a difference.

Stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek