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The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards – At The All-Star Break

By Sam Fels 1956 0

Time to get down again. For those who are new to our deranged family, every so often I like to delve into what the end-of-season awards would look like if everyone actually paid attention to what was really going on during the NHL season. This will always remain my wish, but hey, it’s fun to dream and hope. So let’s get to it.

Hart – This one’s pretty simple. You hand it to Nathan MacKinnon, or Nikita Kucherov if you’re feeling spicy. I don’t think either is a wrong choice. You could even make a case for Phil Kessel, who has kept the Penguins afloat while they try and figure shit out and kick through some fatigue. MVP is still kind of easy to measure. Goals are how games are won, and whoever is scoring and creating most of them, with the least help, probably should get the award.

Vezina – Easy as well. Hand it to Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s got the league’s highest save-percentage, and the second biggest difference between his actual save-percentage and his expected. So he’s not benefitting hugely from a great defense in front of him.

Calder – Again, this isn’t hard. Mathew Barzal. He’s on pace to have the greatest rookie scoring total in over a decade. He’s made the Islanders relevant, and even interesting even though they can’t play defense worth a shit.

Selke – Ok, this is where the rubber meets the road. As we’ve previously stated, this award always goes to a center that everyone knows, who wins a lot of draws and scores a lot too and has developed a reputation as a defensive center simply because everyone says so. And that center is always Patrice Bergeron. And that’s not entirely wrong. You can make a solid case for him every year. You can for this one. When we looked at this in mid-December, we were actually making a case for Winnipeg’s Adam Lowry. Let’s see if that’s still the case.

For best defensive forward, we should really look at who is holding down attempts against and limiting chances against. When it comes to the top five in attempts against per 60, it’s still Lowry, Bergeron, Tanev, Backes, and Marchand. Strange that they all play on the same lines, eh? (except for Backes). When it comes to types of chances against, the top five in expected goals against per 60 at evens is Mikko Koivu, Lowry, Granlund, Tanev, and Jason Zucker. Again, all linemates. So let’s try and suss it out from who’s benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. Let’s get relative.

When it comes to best relative marks to their team in attempts against per 60, Lowry leads the pack again. He’s followed by Andrew Ladd, Koivu, Brandon Martinook (huh?) and Tanev. When it comes to relative xGA/60, your leaders are Lowry, Hagelin, Kase, Martinook, and Koivu. Again, it looks like Adam Lowry should be getting some votes here. As far as context, Bergeron plays much harder competition than Lowry, but Lowry starts in the offensive zone much less than Bergeron (40% to 60% for Bergeron, though that could be that the Bruins and Bergeron in particular are always driving the play into the offensive zone). Whatever, get original and give it to Lowry.

Norris – This one’s harder. You can’t just give it to the best defensive d-man because driving the play from the back has become so important in today’s game. But it’s gotta be more complicated than just handing it to the d-man with the most points, which would be John Klingberg. If you were going simply by who let up the least chances and attempts, you’d be handing this thing to Dan Hamhuis. Do you really want to do that? No, of course you don’t. If you were going by relative marks to their team in those categories, Hampus Lindholm would have that claim.

When it comes to total contribution, possession-wise, because that’s the entire job description, the leaders in CF/60 relative to their teams are HAMPUS! HAMPUS!, Giordano, Hamilton, Karlsson and Werenski. When it comes to relative xGF%, the only names you’ll see on both lists HAMPUS! HAMPUS! and Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton faces slightly tougher competition than Hampus, and both start in the donkey end the overwhelming majority of the time.

But neither are anywhere near the top of the scoring charts, so you can forget that.

 

Everything Else

Game #47 – Lightning vs. Hawks Q&A: Fitz From RawCharge.com

By Sam Fels 1692 0
GeoFitz4 is a writer on RawCharge.com. Follow him on Twitter @GeoFitz4.
We’ll start with Victor Hedman’s injury. How bad is it and is there any fear it will linger?
When the injury happened, and I first saw a replay while sitting in the arena, I cringed. I got sick to my stomach. It did not look good. It just screamed “torn [something]” and that it would be bad. With the prognosis coming out the day after as three to six weeks, everybody in Tampa Bay let out of sigh of relief. The shorter recovery time suggests that it was more likely a sprain than something being torn. However, maybe something is torn and he’ll be able to play on it once it heals a little bit? But either which way, there’s always a worry with knee injuries for big guys that skate well. You just never know if it’s going to impact the player when he returns. So there is certainly some fear in the back of our minds, but we remain hopeful.
With the Lightning s far ahead in the conference, has there been any thought of giving key players a rest here and there?
I don’t think that that is really Jon Cooper’s style. I think for most of the players on the roster they’re going to be playing a full slate as able. The exceptions might be for some older players like Chris Kunitz, Ryan Callahan, and Braydon Coburn to help keep them fresh. And I do think that Vasilevskiy will start taking less starts as the season goes on. Louis Domingue provides some more confidence in the depth in net and that actually leads me a little bit into the next answer…
What might the Lightning look to do at the deadline?
The team may have already made it’s most important trade of the season already in acquiring Louis Domingue back in November after the Arizona Coyotes waived him. The Lightning’s third goalie at the time, Michael Leighton, had struggled for Syracuse and the Lightning gave up basically nothing to acquire Domingue by trading Leighton and AHL veteran Tye McGinn. Domingue instantly upgraded the third goaltender spot in the organization. And he may even have a chance to overtake Peter Budaj for the back-up spot. Budaj is out for a few more weeks with a lower body injury and Domingue will have this opportunity to audition for the back-up spot. Either way, the team is going to have a hard decision to make when Budaj is back and both would need waivers to go to the minors.
Other than that, I think the most likely possibility is a right handed top-four defenseman. Mike Green is the big name that’s out there that fills that role, but I don’t think the Lightning would get full value out of acquiring him. It would move Jake Dotchin to the pressbox, but Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev already have the powerplay spots locked down and the Lightning play four forwards and one D on both power play units. The only other spot that is somewhat open would be the third line right winger spot. It’s currently occupied by Cory Conacher and he’s played well there. But… if there’s an upgrade to be had there for the right price, Yzerman has to consider it.
Steven Stamkos only has five goals in his last 17. Any concern there?
Not too much worry. The Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov line was the best line in the NHL for much of the first half of the season. That line stagnated a bit though and were broken up. Stamkos hasn’t quite refound his footing since then and the Lightning have been getting less power play opportunities as well. For much of the season, he’s been feasting off of assists, not goals. Coming out of the Christmas break, he made comments about wanting to shoot more. He did that in the first game out of the break with seven shots on goal, and did raise his average from 2.88 per game to 3.1 per game after the Christmas break. Even considering that, he’s a career 16.8% shooter and has four goals in the last 35 shots. With his normal shooting percentage, he should have scored five goals in that span so it’s not far off even though it’s been a little while.
If the Lightning don’t come out of the East, it will be because….?
They go into a funk at the wrong time and hit a hot team. So much of the playoffs is about getting hot at the right time as the Nashville Predators showed us last season. The Lightning came out hot for the first time in… a long time… but have hit some rough spots over the past month or so. Perhaps this is a good time for them to be going through that so that they can re-find their game now and keep it going through the end of the season and into the playoffs. The other big worry would be an injury to Andrei Vasilevskiy for pretty obvious reasons. He’s having a Vezina caliber season and losing him would be a big blow to the Lightning’s chances.

 

Game #47 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #21 – My Way, Your Way, Anything Goes Tonight – Hawks 2, Ning 2 (Lightning Win Three-Legged Race)

By John Pullega 2821 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

After an electric 1st period, the Hawks saw why the Lightning are the best team in the NHL. To the bullets.

– This game was a goaltending clinic. Between Crawford stoning the best power play in the league and Vasilevskiy making several unbelievable saves against Saad, Panik, and Kane in OT, there was no shortage of magic in the crease. Only injury will keep these two from being Vezina finalists.

– The PK was brilliant yet again. Despite six straight minutes of shorthanded time in the 1st period, 42 seconds of which were of the 5-on-3 variety, the Hawks escaped unscathed. You can thank Crawford yet again for coming up large on the 5-on-3, stopping three shots, but the PK as a whole looked tight throughout.

– What Patrick Kane giveth, Patrick Kane taketh away. He was a complete dynamo in the 1st, lifting a sharp wrister over Vasilevskiy’s glove and burying a horrible-angle shot on the Hawks’s 5-on-3 later in the period. But from the 2nd period on, Kane obviously began to think more about the night he will inevitably spend slicking copious amounts of gel through both his and Jon Cooper’s slimily coifed, over-fragranced hairdos as they hop from humid dive bar to humid dive bar. He had a sloppy drop pass on the PP in the 2nd that nearly led to the Ning’s second SH goal, and he continued to leave drop passes in bad spots throughout. And while Vasilevskiy is obviously the real deal, you still expect him to pot a breakaway opportunity in OT. Kane’s performance was reflective of the Hawks’s as a whole: incredible start, leftover-turkey fart to finish.

– I’m getting really itchy about Brandon Saad’s inability to score lately. He had two excellent opportunities that he just couldn’t finish. The first was on a 3-on-1 on the PP. It looked like he wanted to bank the shot off Vasilevskiy’s pad for a rebound to Wide Dick, but with a 3-on-1, I was hoping for a centering pass. Maybe the angle was off for a pass, but the shot selection seemed a bit desperate and rushed. Of course, when that shot didn’t go in, the Ning turned around and scored (Kane’s spaciness on the far boards was also a factor), and continued to tilt the ice. Then in the 3rd, after a sweet feed from Toews, Saad couldn’t finish again. His shooting percentage is now at 5.4% when you discount the first two games, well off his career pace. I’m confident he’ll find it, but sooner would be better than later.

– Saad wasn’t the only guy to biff prime chances tonight. Panik, Schmaltz, and Forsling all had near misses, with Forsling’s being the least egregious with a shot off the post in the 2nd. But Panik getting denied by Vasilevskiy in the 3rd after Saad’s denial was especially frustrating. Again, Vasilevskiy is excellent, but with a yawning net, it’s got to go in. It’s now been 12 games since his last goal. And Schmaltz’s wide shot after a prime feed from Anisimov on the doorstep on a 2-on-1 is inexcusable for a guy with hands that good.

– This was one of Connor Murphy’s best games. His even-strength Corsi was an absurd 78.95%, and his positioning and physicality throughout the game were consistently outstanding and well-placed. I want to see him get more time on the ice, both in general and on the PK, but in nearly 14 minutes tonight (0:55 on the PK), he showed the defensive prowess that the Hawks brought him in for.

– The Hawks CF%s at evens tonight by period: 59+, 26+, 46+. So you’ll take the pity point.

– Three-on-three OT is still stupid, but it was fun watching Crow and Vasilevskiy trade amazing saves.

If and when the stable of Toews, Panik, and Saad pull their shooting percentages out of their ass slings, the Hawks are going to crack off some sort of 20-points-in-10-games streak. You feel this team starting to jell, but time is of the essence.

Safe holidays to everyone this week.

Booze Du Jour: Woodford Reserve

Line of the Night: Everything, because I didn’t have to listen to Mike Milbury at all.

Everything Else

Your Friends And Neighbors – ’17-’18 Team Previews: Crash Before My Eyes

By 2018

It must’ve been a really odd season for the hockey press that is looking for any excuse to drop to their knees for Steve Yzerman. Steven Stamkos got hurt, as has kind of been his wont in recent years. Ben Bishop was bad, and then he was gone. Tyler Johnson, Valterri Filppula both missed serious chunks of time. And though there was a late charge to get into the playoffs, they missed out after back-to-back conference final-at-least appearances. How could such a thing happen to a team with a GM as genius as Stevie Y? Oh right, the blue line behind Hedman blew chunks. Well guess what? IT STILL DOES! Yzerman has kept salary cap doomsday off for another year or two at least, and the Bolts look ready to regain their place atop the East.

Tampa Bay Lightning

’16-’17 Record: 42-30-10  94 points (5th in the Flortheast)

Team Stats 5v5: 51.2 CF% (7th)  49.8 SF% (18th)  51.7 SCF% (7th)  7.3 SH% (18th)  .924 SV% (16th)

Everything Else

Till The Wheels Fall Off – Hawks at Lightning Preview, Security Camera Installation

By 1465

 at 

Game Time:  6:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: CSN, NBCSN, TVA-S, WGN-AM 720
Haunting, Haunted, Haunts: Raw Charge

While the Hawks might be in cruise control with at home ice in the first round only two points away from being clinched and being seven up in the conference for home ice in the West, this week is could certainly make things interesting by playing 5 straight games in the east, with every one of them with at least something on paper to play for. Saturday night already saw the Hawks get bitten in the dick by the Cats, and tonight they stay in Florida to face a Lightning team hanging by a thread.

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We Like To Watch – May 17th – The Vas Difference

By 1336

So it took a little bit longer than it looked like it was going to after the the first 10 minutes of the game, but the Penguins salvaged a split at home after Tampa won Game 1. These are two incredibly flawed teams, particularly on their respective blue lines, but the speed and dynamism among their forward corps is what got both within three wins of representing the East. Somehow Pengs coach Mike Sullivan allowed both Justin Schultz and Trevor Daley on the ice together at home in a conference final game, and behind Christ Kunitz (who fell down) no less. Predictably that shift resulted in the second Tampa goal. However, Sidney Crosby ended the OT period forty seconds in after cement mixer face Jeremy Roenick said that he wasn’t working as hard as Jonathan Drouin during the second intermission.

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No Division – Game 5 – Hawks at Lightning Preview, Pregame Thread, Film Festival

By 1416 0

oldschool at 

Game Time: 7:00PM Central
TV/Radio: NBC, CBC, TVA, WGN-AM 720
Ache With Me: Raw Charge

And now the home stretch. With a win on Wednesday night, the Hawks now return to Tampa with the series tied at two games apiece. And in order for them to return back to the west side on Monday with the ultimate goal fully in reach, they will have to do something they have not done yet in this post season, and that’s win Game 5 on the road.

Everything Else

Diesel And Dust – Game 3 – Lightning vs Hawks Preview, Pregame Thread, Credit Counseling

By 1526 0

greased lightning vs oldschool

Game Time: 7:00PM Central
TV/Radio: NBCSN, CBC, TVA
From Her Lips To God’s Ears: Raw Charge

With the series shifting north to the United Center for games 3 and 4, both the Hawks and the Lightning believe themselves to be in highly actionable positions within the context of the series after a split in Tampa. But the team in red is the one that will be best served in maximizing their opportunity on home ice.