Hockey

Game #38 – Devils vs. Hawks Spotlight: What Are The Tales Of His Demise?

By Sam Fels 1313 0

It seemed just a little too convenient.

Just as it happened in Montreal, things did not go the Predators’ way last year. They were out in the first round, and while they addressed their lack of true, frontline scoring by signing Matt Duchene, they didn’t address the fact that their goalie is 107-years-old. And they put the blame on the most noticeable, marketable, and loudest player in PK Subban. Sure, part of it was earmarking Subban’s cap hit for Duchene, but it was easy enough to claim he was declining to move him out again. Both in hockey and in the South, which just so happens to be the nexus Nashville sits on, the first call is to blame the black guy when things go wrong.

Hasn’t really helped the Predators much. But with Subban piling up only six points so far Nashville’s contention that he was slowing down is accepted by the majority of hockey viewers.

But is he? The answer isn’t quite as clear as most would think. Subban’s metrics are certainly down from his Predator days, but he’s on a much worse team. Subban’s relative Corsi and relative xG% are still ahead of the Devils’ rates. They’re not as high as his first season in Nashville or his last one, when he was supposedly dragging everyone down, but they’re still noticeably higher.

Moreover, Subban of last has been paired with Andy Greene, which is just about as exciting as someone named “Andy Greene” would be in your mind. When playing with Damon Severson earlier in the year, they were dominant possession-wise. This was one of the many things that John Hynes got wrong before getting canned and Alain Nasreddine hasn’t really fixed.

So why the point total plummet? Might have something to do with the Devils shooting 5% when he’s on the ice, the lowest any team Subban has been on has managed. That speaks to the complete lack of scoring talent that the Devils have, even less now with Taylor Hall off in the sun. Subban is still on the ice for just about the same amount of chances as he’s been, according to expected-goals-for per 60, but the Devils just don’t have the snipers to bury any of them.

The Devils power play has really hurt Subban as well, and that’s where his individual numbers have really taken a hit. He’s getting 75% of the shots he used to, as well as expected goals, and way less attempts. But is that him or what the Devils do on the power play? The Preds power play was terrible last year too but Subban still got his looks. Again, the Devils are shooting 3.8% when PK is on the ice ON THE POWER PLAY. That’s criminally, if not war crime bad. How much of that can you really put on Subban?

Meanwhile, in Music City Subban’s replacement Dante Fabbro is comfortably behind the team rates in those measures and has two more points. But he’s doing it a hell of a lot cheaper, and that was the idea the whole time. The Preds remain a decent-to-better metric team, so Subban’s absence hasn’t really cost them much on the ice. Still, it’s clear whatever the problems were also didn’t have much to do with him, given their standing just ahead of the Hawks.

Subban probably can’t completely change a team like he did before, and needs talent around him to really make him flourish. One has to ask if that will ever be in Newark. They’re going to need a lot more than just Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier to be something. Subban has two years left on his deal after this one at $9M per, but it’s going to be more than two years before the Devils are contenders again. If the Devils eat some salary will someone take a chance at the draft?

They probably should, because Subban has more to give yet despite what people say. He just needs a touch more help than he used to. But then, who doesn’t?

Hockey

Game #38 – Devils vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1343 0

The New Oilers – When you have Taylor Hall and two #1 overall picks, you’re supposed to be interesting. And yet the Devils aren’t, and now they don’t have Hall anymore and they didn’t get much other than lottery tickets for him. Jack Hughes was one of the more anticipated #1 overall picks in recent memory, and he’s spent most of his season on a fourth line and looking at Wayne Simmonds wondering what this is supposed to be. Their game against the Hawks was perhaps the most unwatchable of the past three Hawks seasons, which is quite the claim indeed. Nico Hischier has yet to do anything in the NHL that anyone remembers. The Devils are headed for another top five pick, and yet we can be sure their soul will die as everything else does in New Jersey. Are we sure we need these guys?

John Hayden – To quote Fifth Feather, it will be 2035 and both Eddie Olczyk and Pat Foley will be saying of John Hayden had just been given a chance, he could have been the power forward the Hawks haven’t really had since Marian Hossa went to the land of wind and ghosts. And he’ll still be a slow nincompoop.

Will Butcher – Just because he’s yet another four-year college free agent who everyone lost their shit over and he’s, at best, fine. You can see Ian Mitchell’s path from here.

Hockey

Game #38 – Devils vs. Hawks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1143 0

Devils

Notes: This will be Jesper’s first game against Adam, which we’re sure won’t get mentioned on the broadcast seven times…Palmieri has scored in three of his last four and generally torches the Hawks…Think Dennis Gilbert’s fight against Wayne Simmonds last time is trumpeted by Olczyk tonight? We mean not within the first five minutes of the game…

Hawks

Notes: Don’t really know where Quenneville will slot in, but this is our best guess. What Sikura has done to run afoul of Colliton we really have no idea…Toews was dominant against non-MacKinnon lines on Saturday, and perhaps going forward they should look for more of those matchups…Boqvist and Keith also had a strong game, and against the Devils’ trapping ways it would be nice to see Boqvist let it hang out a bit through the neutral zone….

Hockey

High On The Hog: Holiday Numbers

By Jon Fromi 1082 0

The Rockford IceHogs split this past weekend’s action, defeating a hot Texas Stars club Friday night before falling to Cleveland the following evening. Rockford (17-11-0-1) trails Iowa by a standings point for second place in the AHL’s Central Division but can leapfrog the Wild when the two teams hook up in Rockford this coming weekend.

The piglets have continued to play well in the face of recent call-ups by the Blackhawks. The roster thins a bit more heading into the holiday break, but the Hogs have still won seven of their last ten games.

 

By The Numbers

Here are a few statistics of note for Rockford through 29 games this season:

  • The Hogs are 11-5 at home and 6-6-0-1 on the road so far in 2019-20.
  • Rockford is scoring 2.93 goals per game…and allowing 2.93 goals per game.
  • Rockford averages 28.59 shots and surrenders 31.76 shots per contest. Only six teams in the league give up more shots on goal than the IceHogs. Strong play in net has been important to the team’s success so far.
  • The power play is 30th out of 31 teams, converting just 10.8 percent of Rockford’s opportunities.
  • While the penalty kill has been better, the Hogs are still working at an 80 percent kill rate. That is good for a tie with Chicago at 23rd in the AHL.
  • The IceHogs have posted seven shorthanded goals this season. That’s tied for the fourth-best mark in the league.
  • Kevin Lankinen’s 55 saves on December 10 is the second-highest total in the league this season. On December 4, Phillipe Desrosiers saved 62 shots for Springfield in a win over Lehigh Valley.
  • Brandon Hagel (8 G, 7 A) and Phillipp Kurashev (5 G, 10 A) are tied for 16th among rookies in scoring with 15 points.
  • Team captain Tyler Sikura (8 G, 9 A) leads Rockford in scoring with 17 points. Dylan Sikura, currently in Rockford, has 16 points (9 G, 7 A) for the Hogs. Hagel and Kurashev are right behind the Sikuras. Defenseman Philip Holm has 14 points (3 G, 11 A).
  • Joseph Cramarossa, who had both goals in Saturday’s loss to Cleveland, is tied for the AHL lead with five fighting majors. He has scrapped three times for Rockford since coming aboard last month. That leads the IceHogs. Reese Johnson has dropped the gloves twice for Rockford. In all, the team has nine fighting majors this season.

Tomkins Playing For Spengler Cup

The goalie situation becomes a bit less crowded over the holidays. Rockford has loaned Matt Tomkins to Team Canada for the upcoming Spengler Cup. The former Ohio State net minder gets an opportunity to impress on the international tournament after some solid play for the piglets.

Tomkins has started six games for the IceHogs this season. He’s 4-2 with a 2.66 GAA and a .912 save percentage. This leaves Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia as Rockford’s goalie tandem for the first time this season.

 

Quenneville Recalled

The IceHogs lost another productive skater when Chicago recalled forward John Quenneville on Sunday. Quenneville is coming off a stretch in Rockford where he had four goals and four helpers over his last five contests. His plus-nine skater rating was the highest on the team at the time of the call-up.

This leaves the Hogs roster at 23 players; 13 forwards, eight defensemen and two goalies. Alexandre Fortin has yet to return from an injury suffered November 29 against the Wolves. Anton Wedin sat out both games this weekend. Nathan Noel, fresh off his recall from the Indy Fuel, was injured Friday and did not play in Saturday’s game with Cleveland.

Mikael Hakkarainen skated in a game at the BMO Harris Bank Center for the first time. Returning from an injury in Iowa on October 4, Hakkarainen played in both weekend contests.

Barring I would expect at least a couple of forwards to be brought up from Indy sometime before Rockford’s next game. That comes on Friday when the Wild come to town.

 

Weekend Recaps

Friday, December 20-Rockford 4, Texas 2

The Stars were 8-1-1 in their last ten games before coming into the BMO Friday. Rockford put together a terrific 60-minute effort to knock off Texas.

Brandon Hagel was the catalyst for the first IceHogs goal of the evening, forcing a turnover in the Stars zone, then gathering in a long rebound off the pads of Texas goalie Landon Bow. Hagel skated out to the top of the zone and dropped a pass to John Quenneville at the left point. Quenneville’s long-distance offering slipped by Bow and gave Rockford a 1-0 lead 4:23 into the opening period.

Josh Melnick tied the game for Texas in the 13th minute, but Rockford took a 2-1 intermission lead thanks to some nifty passing on a late power play. Phillip Kurashev, assisted by Quenneville and Lucas Carlsson, sent a wrist shot by Bow with 2:53 remaining in the first period.

Carlsson made it 3-1 Hogs after one-timing a cross-ice feed off the boards from MacKenzie Entwistle 5:09 into the second period. That was plenty for Collin Delia, who stopped 33 of the 35 shots he saw on the night. The Stars pulled Bow and scored with six skaters at the 17:05 mark of the third, but Hagel’s empty-netter in the final minute of play sealed the victory.

 

Saturday, December 21-Cleveland 3, Rockford 2

Joseph Cramarossa was the offense for the IceHogs; his pair of lamp-lighters wasn’t enough to beat the visiting Monsters.

Cramarossa gave Rockford an early 1-0 lead, taking a drop pass from Phillipp Kurashev  and sending shot from the right circle that got though Cleveland goalie Veini Vehvilainen just 29 seconds into the game.

The Monsters took control of the game in the second period with three unanswered goals. Brett Gallant redirected an Adam Clendening blast by Hogs starter Kevin Lankinen 4:03 into the period. The Cleveland power play gave the Monsters a 2-1 lead on Nathan Gerbe’s snipe from the left circle 13:15 into the second. Two minutes later, Stefan Matteau potted an unassisted shorthanded goal to increase the Cleveland advantage to 3-1.

The IceHogs, as is their custom, played hard in the final twenty, closing the gap to 3-2 on the man advantage. Cramarossa’s first attempt from the left post was stopped, but the second effort elevated over Mehvilainen’s pad at the 7:57 mark. Lankinen spent most of the last three minutes on the Rockford bench in favor of the extra skater, to no avail.

 

Coming Up

The IceHogs host the Wild Friday, then head to Manitoba for games on Sunday and Tuesday. Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for game updates this weekend as well as thoughts on the team all season long.

 

Football

Week #16 – Chiefs 26, Bears 3: Thud

By Sam Fels 1468 0

That about sums it up.

I’ve said it before, but just to reiterate, I’m hardly a football expert. Just a Bears fan who’s as frustrated and disappointed as you are. Tonight was ugly, as ugly as it’s been, because other than the Saints game the Bears have been in every one and just missed here and there to lose. This was being outclassed, which hurts as a fan more than anything.

What makes it far worse is the lazy-ass narratives that come out of it. Yeah, we know Mahomes was taken 10th and Trubisky 2nd. This is such an easy branch to reach for when someone wants to sound right and profound. It’s over now. And it’s not fair to use that to judge Trubisky. To judge Ryan Pace? Absolutely, and it will almost certainly be his defining moment, probably for worse. But you have to keep those separate.

That doesn’t mean Mitch should be absolved. He was bad tonight, but so was everything. The gameplan sucked. So did the o-line. The defense was kind of helpless. We could do this all day. And those things have happened far too often this season.

I know everything now has recency bias, especially in the NFL where things change so much from year to year. But we’re still only 12 months removed from probably the most fun Bears team of our lifetimes (depending on how old you are). No one wanted anybody fired or cut then. It can’t be completely negated. Now, other than Allen Robinson no one has taken a step forward, and that team is basically still here. Is that on Pace? Maybe, maybe that’s everyone’s ceiling. Or is that on Nagy? Combination thereof?

If the Bears lose next week, their two-year record will be 19-13. That hardly seems like a fireable record. Remember, this team punted Lovie Smith after a three-year stretch of 29-19, and that sent them on a five-year spin-cycle of idiocy. You have to be careful on these things.

Also some history. Remember that John Fox was forced on Ryan Pace after he was hired, and he had to tailor a team to that idiot. That doesn’t mean those three years should be completely erased from the records or the evaluation, but weighted less heavily than you might normally. Again, when he’s had the run of the place, 19-13. And to repeat myself, that only means that next year is the make-or-break for everyone.

As I’ve said, the ship of Mitch being great has sailed. But I don’t see that we have to give up on good, though it seems a readily available thing to reach for right now. He missed Allen Robinson on a deep throw that could have started this game on a different note. And it’s another in the category of throws the Bears had to have, as I’ve catalogued. Hit those five throws, and the Bears probably have 10 wins right now. At least nine for sure. And if Mitch is never going to be that guy who hits those throws, and he might never be, well then it’s time to move on.

But fuck, Josh Allen is a playoff QB. So’s Kirk Cousins. So’s Carson Wentz. A year ago, you wouldn’t have swapped any of them in here. All that means is everyone gets one more spin. Matt Nagy isn’t solely responsible for the mess that Mitch is now, but he’s got a hand. A big one. Can he accent what Mitch does well next year? Is there anything? We’ll find out, because there aren’t many other options. You want to ride on the Andy Dalton merry-go-round? That’ll land you with y0ur dick in the dirt as well.

It sucks, because that team last year was so much fun and this one has been such a goddamn drag and you can’t remove the emotion out of it when it comes to the Bears. Especially when they’ve pretty much been a calamity for most of our lives. It’s beyond old at this point.

But we can do better than lazy. At least we’re going to try.

Baseball

Dallas Buyers Club

By Andy Jonathan 1931 0

Hey, look! Some of the money got spent!

Honestly, I cant tell you how surprised I was to open up my twitter app last night during the 49ers game and see the following come across my feed:

At first I had to double check it wasn’t some asshole’s parody account (though the Bruce Levine one is pretty damn funny), and when it began showing up on MLBTR along with other beat writers it seemed the Sox had actually signed him. So now what?

Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was four years ago when he won the Cy Young for the AL with the eventual World Series winning Houston Astros. He is, however, an expert sinkerballer and a guy who generates ground balls at an astounding rate. Keuchel’s career average for GB% hovers just a tick under 60% (59.2% to be exact), which is second only to Marcus Stroman in the league for the last five years.

This is a very good thing, as The Down Arrow is not exactly a pitcher friendly park. Having an innings-eater who gets hitters to pound the ball into the dirt is a very handy thing for the Sox to have. With both Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito living life at the top of the strike zone, someone like Keuchel will go a long way to preventing Luis Robert’s hamstrings from flaming into dust his rookie season. It’s also gonna mean a lot more work for Tim Anderson, so here’s hoping he’s been working on his AL-worst fielding percentage this winter.

In addition to all the ground balls, Keuchel has thrown more than 150 innings (not including last year’s shortened season due to not having a contract until June) in all but one of his seasons, so durability is not an issue for the guy. Having a quality pitch framer for him last season in Tyler Flowers (skypoint) helped him bring his K/9 back up above seven for the first time in four years, so Yasmani Grandal should be able to continue that trend.

To top that off, he has a career ERA+ average of 110, which for comparison we turn to this tweet from @MrDelicious13:

https://twitter.com/MrDelicious13/status/1207999683861327878?s=20

 

With the last two signings, Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez (at least statistically speaking) immediately become the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers on the Sox rotation. It also means the days of seeing Ross Detwiler and Dylan Covey serve up plates of meatballs to opposing hitters are dead and buried. For the first time in what feels like eons the Sox will have major league quality starters at the 1-5 spots in their rotation. Granted Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez are still unknown quantities at this point, but they’ve both shown flashes of dominance thus far in their careers and (at least in Cease’s case) are still valued members of The Future™.

This also creates a glut of potential starters for the Sox going forward, as the impending returns of Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon from Tommy John surgery creates a scenario where the team has the flexibility to make some trades for a proven bat provided everyone stays (or comes back) healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Hahn uses this as a reason to start Kopech in the minors as a way of both building up his arm strength and recapturing a year of service time. I’m assuming the Sox opening day rotation looks something like this:

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Dallas Keuchel
  3. Dylan Cease
  4. Gio Gonzalez
  5. Reynaldo Lopez

 

Finally I can look at the 4th and 5th starter spots and not feel like someone just scrubbed my eyes with a urinal puck. What a great feeling, lets keep it up!

In other interesting news, Dallas Keuchel is repped by none other than Jerry Reinsdorf’s arch nemesis Scott Boras. This explodes the narrative that the Sox were never interested in doing business with Boras clients, or at the bare minimum presents a new path forward for the Sox front office in the way they pursue free agents in the off-season. It also inches the Sox payroll close to the $100 million mark, with Keuchel’s contract for three years, $55 million (for an AAV of about 18 mil per). It also has a vesting option for a 4th year if he hits innings pitched numbers in the 2nd and 3rd year of the contract. With Keuchel turning 32 before the season starts that puts him at 36 in the 4th year of the deal which might look a little iffy but fuck it, it’s not my money.

So the Sox still need another bat (unless you’re totally wowed by Cheslor Cuthbert, and if you are I’d like to congratulate you on surviving this long with head trauma) and most likely another bullpen arm (Hello Dellin Betances!), but even if none of those things come to pass we can finally say the Sox have had a successful off-season. It doesn’t quite wash away the disappointment of losing the MannyDerby last season, or make me forget that Odrisamer Despaigne and Yonder Alonso were things last year, but it goes a long way towards making me hopeful that this rebuild is not going to stretch on ad infinitum.

Good work, Hahn and co. Now don’t jerk around with Luis Robert’s service time, because I’ve seen enough of Adam Engel starting in CF to last a lifetime.

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks 5, Avs 3: Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 1991 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Your delayed recap! And it’s for a win! And a fun one! Let’s not wait around, shall we?

The Two Obs

-There’s been a tenet around here for the entire time we’ve been doing this. Which makes it mesmerizing, and a little sobering, that it’s still true after all these years. But…when Duncan Keith is good, the Hawks are good. It’s really been that simple. Toews and Kane steal the headlines, which Keith is only too pleased to let them do, and they certainly are a large part of it. But no player has been a bigger barometer to the Hawks’ fortunes, nor more responsible. He can’t do it every game at 36, and that’s not on him that the Hawks haven’t found another solution. But on the nights he can, the Hawks actually look like a representative team.

Keith was everywhere last night, in a good way, in the way that it used to be. And he did it nursing along Adam Boqvist (more on him in a sec) and behind this still very fractured lineup. He didn’t end up on the scoresheet, but his influence would have been hard to miss. It even included kicking off the Hawks’ “hit or die” attitude on the night. The broadcast wanted you to think it was Gilbert’s fight. No, it was Keith laying Donskoi on his ass that everyone followed. It’s not a huge part of his game, but sometimes you forget that Keith is still about as sturdy as a fire hydrant and has that in his locker when needed.

We haven’t seen this Keith much over the past couple seasons, Some of it is age, some of it is thinking the coach is a moron and the team is headed in the wrong direction. He still thinks the coach is an idiot, and the team is still headed in the wrong direction, and he’s still old, but maybe through just professional pride or wanting to help the young players or whatever, we’re seeing this Keith more often. We should enjoy it. How much longer will it be around?

-The other tenet is “names on the sheet.” When the scoresheet has a lot of Kane and Toews on it (used to be Hossa and Sharp too, and the hope is Top Cat and Dach Holiday will take that role soon), the Hawks win. This is pretty simple stuff of course, as every team needs their best players to be their best players. The Hawks need it now especially, as they don’t have the cast of thousands to chip in. Toews wasn’t possessionally (it’s now a word fuck you) dominant, but got the goal that got the Hawks back in it and then kicked off the plays for their second and winning goals. Kane did Kane stuff.

Toews is also on a point-per-game pace his last 25, after that initial worry.

-The season still remains about what Dach and Boqvist become. It’s unfortunate for Dach that the only thing we really have to compare him to developmentally is Toews, because he’s the last center the Hawks took this high in the draft. Toews had a year of college before showing up, which probably makes a bigger difference than we think. At least as a freshman, you’re playing against other players your age or above. Dach wouldn’t have got that in Saskatoon, so he’s here. So there’s a higher learning curve, as he figures out what works now and what will work later.

You got a glimpse last night, as not only was Dach making things happen he was also not afraid to power through physically. As Fifth Feather pointed out on the podcast, we don’t know what Dach will be physically, because he’s got 20-25 pounds of muscle to put on yet. Which is kind of scary for everyone else.

Dach was put behind the eight-ball lately a bit, saddles with Zack Smith and Matthew Highmore or the like. Not only are they unskilled, they’re slow. So Dach could charge through the neutral zone and look around and see the world has abandoned him. With DeBrincat and a mobile space-opener in Carpenter, he’s got options to play off of. His goal showed off his hands and reach, because that was hardly an easy pass to catch and a chance to finish.

-To Boqvist. It feels, so far and there’s such a long way to go, that the Hawks are going about developing him the opposite way of how they should. Instead of just letting him be Adam Boqvist and figuring out where to shave off, they’re stripping him down and figuring out where to be Adam Boqvist. Compare that to how Duncan Keith came up. The stakes weren’t as high of course, and he had a full season in the AHL. But one thing you could say about Trent Yawney and Denis Savard is they let Keith be Keith and run around everywhere like he’d gotten into the pixie sticks. And then in time he figured out how to mold that into an NHL game.

Boqvist seems to want to move the puck along as quickly as possible, even if it isn’t to anyone. He is tentative to skate with it in his own zone. When the Hawks were trailing in the 3rd and they had to let him off the leash, you got a couple views of what he can do. Not only does he pinch but he’s so quick he’s getting to the puck at the circle instead of at the line, which gives him space to make a play. But he shouldn’t be trying to be Connor Murphy the rest of the time, and trying to spot when to be Adam Boqvist. It should be the opposite.

-The Hawks were intent on finishing checks last night, which is a good way to keep a much-faster team from getting away from you, especially if they’re not totally locked in. And without Makar, the Avs don’t really have another d-man to start transition so putting them all under pressure is going to cause turnovers and mistakes. I don’t know if the Hawks can play this way all the time, but it wouldn’t hurt to try.

-We occasionally get people asking us why we still do this, because our writing has gotten morose and despondent at times lately. And I understand the question, because it can seem like we’re not enjoying ourselves at all. I shouldn’t speak for everyone else here, but games like last night are why I’m still here. Because it’s still fun when they win a game like that. It’s still fun to watch Toews force his way into chances because he feels like it, or Keith to be an ice-wide blanket, or Kane to conjure something out of nothing or making a finish look that simple. It’s fun to get a vision of what Dach can do and might be one day. It’s fun to watch Connor Murphy drag Gustafsson by the dick into competence. We hope that we see more of it of course, and it’s that hope that keeps me around, I guess.

Onwards…