All stats at even-strength except where noted. All adjusted for score and venue. Stats compiled from Corsica.hockey.
Game #24 Preview
All analytics from Corsica.com and at adjusted for score and venue. All team-building info from HockeyDb.com.
Game #24 Preview
One of the things we’ve lamented most over our entire time doing this, and in a connected fashion probably one of the reasons for our “success,” is how inaccessible hockey coaches and media make information that might teach others the game. Getting any sort of useful nuggets of insight from a coach or player is akin to finding a good dentist in Atlantis. They just don’t give it to you. Most of the time I’ll give the players a pass, as stringing together sentences is enough of a challenge and they’re most assuredly following orders.
We all know why. Everyone takes their cues from football coaches, whom these days are taking their cues from Bill Belichick. But there was a holier than thou quality to football coaches long before Belichik turned it into something of an art, and this shit didn’t really fly when he was coaching the Browns. And even in football, it’s a little silly.
I’m struggling to find the video, but there was another perfect and infuriating example on HNIC’s pregame show on Saturday, which was setting up the Capitals-Leafs game that night. Both Mike Babcock and Barry Trotz were facing mini-controversies in how they sent out their forwards. Babcock has long refused to pair up Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, even though they’ve been a fist in the face of God when he has. Trotz had split up Niklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin of late in a bid to juice scoring through more of the lineup.
The pregame show played clips of pressers each had earlier in the week. The clip of Babcock showed him responding to a question from some member of Toronto media person about the Matthews-Marner axis with, “When you coach the team you can set it up however you want. When I coach it I’ll do what I want.”
The clip of Trotz that followed wasn’t much better. When asked about Backstrom and Ovie–and by a female reporter but I’ll save that raised eyebrow for another time–Trotz’s response was, “Because I felt like it.” And he repeated that when pressed, and good on her for asking a follow-up, which seems to be a lost art these days.
What’s frustrating about these things is that no one was asking about specific game strategy. It’s not like we wanted Babcock to tell us how they were going to attack the Caps when John Carlson was on the ice that night. It’s like almost every coach doesn’t know that their team is being scouted by every other team in the league. If Babs feels that Marner and Matthews are too weak defensively to be playing together, you can be sure every other team knows that already. If Babs thinks that Marner needs the puck too much to be effective and Matthews hasn’t quite learned how to play without the puck totally effectively yet, or something like that, what’s the cost in telling your fans that? Sure, it doesn’t cost Babcock anything to keep his fans in the dark and questioning as long as the wins pile up. But it doesn’t cost him anything to not do so either.
And of course, I can totally understand the urge to tell the Toronto media to find something to spin on. We all do.
We face the same thing here in Chicago. Things are rosy for the moment, especially in the glow of Top Cat’s hat trick last night against several wildebeests masquerading as Anaheim Ducks. And if your next questions is, “Where would wildebeests get Anaheim Ducks unis?” believe me I’m right there with you. Still, A.D.B has shown he already has NHL top six skills, and yet he isn’t playing there. He fashioned a goal with his line last night, but the other two goals were when he was out there between line changes and got to run with Schmaltz and Kane. And this has kind of been the story all season.
At this point, we know Schmaltz is in the wing spot Top Cat would take in the top six because the Hawks want him to shoot more, and maybe give him a touch more space for his vision. Maybe they also don’t feel DeBrincat is ready for tougher competition. Maybe they don’t think Schmaltz has the strength or determination down low in his own zone yet to play in the middle.
But have we heard Q say any of this? None of this would be news to his opponents. They have scouts and those scouts have eyes. We’re basically guessing at what the reasons are. I’m pretty confident that the Predators know that for tonight Schmaltz is more likely to pass than shoot when in a given spot, no matter what Quenneville gives us or doesn’t.
While it’s pointless to continue to point to the NBA as comparison, one of the things serious NBA fans love about that league is that coaches give their press something. They’ll tell you if a guys spreads the floor from the four or they like his defense on the wing from the bench or whatever else. They’re not going to give you specific sets they’re going to run ahead of time but they’ll tell you why they did something in the past. You can learn something and watch your team differently.
Again, it doesn’t cost hockey teams anything to be run like this. We’ll still watch. It’s just annoying that they think they’re guarding government secrets. It might make for a more enjoyable time for everyone.
I always smile when I remember that Cam Fowler plays for the Ducks. I smile especially big when the Hawks rub the Ducks’s faces in it. To the bullets.
– One of the Hawks’s third liners, Alex DeBrincat, had a hat trick on Free Hat Night. The fix is in. It’s important to reiterate that the Hawks drafted Kitten Mittons with the pick they got for trading Andrew Shaw to the Canadiens. He scored two of his goals while on the ice with guys other than his regular linemates, which makes one wonder how many more goals he’d have playing with guys with similar vision, speed, and finish. But that’s for another day. DeBrincat was everywhere tonight. The Hawks have something special in him.
– The score sheet will tell you that Rutta and Panik had assists on Saad’s goal, but let me assure you, that was pure Saad. His stick lift into a goal sent Derek Grant one step closer to the Junior Wealth Management Associate job his father reserved for him when he named him. And if that’s not enough for you, at about a minute into the second period, Franson was semi-interfered with and the Ducks had an odd-man rush developing. Then, like an excited electron, Saad was suddenly just there, breaking the whole thing up. Plus he’s starting to click offensively, and when Saad clicks offensively, there’s no one on the Hawks who’s an all-around better player.
– Except maybe Crawford, who really only gave up one soft goal tonight. The third goal was on a chance bounce while on the PK, and the first was scored by Ducks Third Star Brent Seabrook. And early in the game, when it looked like it might actually be a game, he made a few big saves in close. I’d have to dig into the numbers, but dare I say it, Corey might end up in Hall of Fame talks if he keeps this all up. If nothing else, he’s a Hall of Famer in my heart.
– Speaking of heart, Heart Man was spry tonight. His pass from behind the net to end Sharp’s goal drought reminds you of why he was a first-round pick. His possession numbers were strong (63+ CF% at evens), and he even made Corey Perry flinch in that third-period scrum at the end. More of that will bode nicely for all.
– Of all the great things that happened tonight, my favorite thing by far was Tommy Wingels walking away from Josh “Don’t Call Me Charles” Manson after Manson had dropped the gloves. The only thing more humiliating than losing a fight is having the guy you pick a fight with chuckle and skate away. More of that will also bode nicely, both for the Hawks and hockey in general.
– Artem Anisimov is still the Hawks’s leading goal scorer after tonight. Connor Murphy had an even-strength CF% of fucking 81+. Pleasant surprises are fun.
– Man, I can’t even try to drag out any Chicago sports fan pessimism about tonight. I wanted to bring some levity to everything by saying that Duncan Keith’s CF% of 35+ at evens wasn’t great, but then I saw that it was still higher than seven Ducks players and tied with Sami Vatanen. Logan Shaw had a CF% of 16.67. Through three periods. A third liner scored three goals after being traded for a guy named Shaw. Again, the NHL fix to keep the Blackhawks relevant is afoot and active.
That’s two convincing victories in a row, and nine points out of 10 through the last five. It’s beginning to look a lot like Blackhawks hockey.
Beer Du Jour: High Life. Champagne is for celebrating.
Line of the Night: “I don’t call him The Cat. I call him The Lion.” –Jamal Mayers on Alex DeBrincat, making lion references Brandon Bollig can only dream about.
Since we last did this, the Blackhawks have taken 7 out of a possible 8 points, and done it against some good competition. They took the Bolts to overtime, though blew a 2-0 lead in the process, and also beat the Rangers, Penguins, and Panthers. Only the second of those three are really among the NHL’s elites, but the other two are fine teams, so we’ll take it. Things are sort of going up, so let’s look at what’s been going on.
The Dizzying Highs
Artem Anisimov: Wide Dick managed 4 goals and an assist in the past 4 games, only being held off the stat sheet in one of those four games. He’s showed a nice bounce back from a low and sometimes frustrating start to the season. He posted a hat trick against the Rags, which apparently was his first of his career, though that surprised me a bit. I don’t expect the torrid scoring to continue, but he’s looked a lot better recently so hopefully that continues, because the results will follow.
Patrick Kane: After being marked by Sam as a Terrifying Low last time we did this, Kane has upped his game. He’s had 5 points in the past 4 games as well, split as 3 goals and two assists, including a 2-goal effort against Tampa Bay in which he scored the Hawks only two goals. He’s officially at a point per game pace this year, and his shooting percentage is back to 12%, which is essentially his career norm. More of the same from the Hawks’ best players will certainly be welcome.
The Terrifying Lows
Brent Seabrook (still): Look, I know this is redundant and lazy, but I can’t ignore it, and there hasn’t been that much esle bad lately. Seabrook hasn’t found the score sheet in the past two weeks, and his CF is down to a miserable 48.11%. He really needs a benching and/or launching into the sun, but Quenneville apparently does not seem to agree with pretty much everybody else in the world on that. It’s getting frustrating to watch him continue to leave nacho cheese all over the ice with nothing positive to show from it. Pray for an awakening.
The Creamy Middles
Richard Panik: Panik had 3 assists against the Rags, and while that was the only time he’s made the score sheet in the past two weeks, he’s managed a nice 61.06 CF% in the past four games as well. Panik is never gonna be a world beating scorer, and he won’t really be a top-line forward, but he’s effective in the role that Hawks need him to play, and that’s more than we can say about some of the clowns around this team.
vs. 
RECORDS: Ducks 10-9-4 Hawks 11-8-3
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO MISCHA BARTON?: Anaheim Calling
The beginning of an absolute brutal stretch is tonight on the Westside, as the Hawks will play five games in the next seven days for reasons no one can quite explain. And they only “struggling” team they’ll get is in the Anaheim Ducks tonight, as the Predators look to be part of the class of the West, the Stars are exactly where the Hawks are, and the Kings have had a very surprising start to the season. If you had questions about the Hawks before this, and you assuredly did, then you’ll get at least a few answers this week.
So beating up on whatever is left of the Ducks tonight almost seems paramount, given what’s to come. The Ducks can thank the far more publicized struggles of the Oilers and the continued incompetence of the Coyotes for masking their flailing start to the season. Yes, they only have one point less point than the Hawks and have only played a game more, but if you think the Hawks have been dependent on Corey Crawford, you should get an eyeful of this outfit.
There’s no question the Ducks have been ravaged by injuries. Ryan Kesler has yet to play a game, but then you might have seen that one coming as he’s well over 30 and had wonky groin and hips and whatever else. Ryan Getzlaf broke his face earlier in the year, doing massive amounts of improvement. Bieksa, Lindholm, Fowler, Kase, and Eaves have all missed significant time or are still out, and Rickard Rakell joined that list this weekend. The Ducks have had to lean on a bunch of kids and current janitors who just happened to be at the rink to fill out the lineup every night.
So John Gibson carrying a .923 and Ryan “They Keep Calling Me” Miller being brilliant in just four appearances has been the lifeboat for this team. Because mostly due to the injuries but partly the abstract roster construction, this is not a good possession team. One of the worst in the league, as they give up the most attempts per game than anyone and are second-worst when it comes to their expected goals-against. Yes, again, the Hawks are right there with them but the Ducks don’t come anywhere close to generating the attempts and chances for that the Hawks do.
There’s something called Derek Wagner centering their top line right now, and Corey Perry’s speed right now would be described as “sloth-adjace.” The only functioning line right now is with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg, and if things don’t turn around soon Cogliano could be a very sought-after deadline piece.
Now that the defense is healthy you’d think things should improve a little. Cam Fowler and Hampus! Hampus! are back, and they are some of the better puck-movers in the West. They’re still dragging around Kevin Bieksa, but at least he’s been demoted to third-pairing duties while spotting in some carnival attraction highlights of punching guys in games the Ducks lose. Brandon Montour has been something of a nice little surprise, and Dave Manson’s kid has been solid. The Ducks blue line has to stem the tide that’s been crashing against their zone all year, because they can’t ask Gibson and Miller to keep making 35-40 saves per night. The defense also has to carry far too much of the offensive burden, not just asked to get the puck to the other end but to create when they get there. Without Getzlaf and Rakell this forward group is bereft of any dash whatsoever. Cogliano has almost always scored through graft, it’s not Perry’s game, Silfverberg is a finisher, and everyone else has mittens pinned to their jackets at all times.
For the Hawks, it’ll be more of the same, with Crawford surprisingly getting this start (from all appearances) instead of tomorrow in Nashville. Maybe Q is already waving the white flag on that one and focusing on the more winnable games like this one, the double-header against the Stars and Kings at home. Strange, but not all that strange in the world which we’ve inhabited for so long now. The rest of the lineup stays the same.
The Hawks may already be out of the race for the automatic spots in the division, unless you’re counting on a collapse from the Jets, and I wouldn’t stop you from doing so. Otherwise, it’s a real jam. And if things go sideways this week, even as hard as it looks to be, it’s going to be an uphill climb all season from there on out. This one is more important than it looks given what lies in wait. Thankfully, the Hawks are playing their best hockey at the moment. They’re gonna need it this week.
Game #23 Preview
There aren’t going to be many tears shed outside of Anaheim if Corey Perry is indeed on his decline. At the age of 32, he certainly is at the back of his peak at best. Perry’s on-ice habits, politely described as “ludicrously assholic,” combined with regularly scoring tons of goals haven’t won him many friends who don’t support the….well, whatever the fuck colors the Ducks claim to be other than black. Whatever they are, they look like shit-assed Running Man outfits. So there will be a large crowd waiting to have a good, soul-defining chuckle if Perry is going to be something of an anchor heading out from here. And given his mobility these days, anchors might take that personally.
Perry has only four goals this season, putting him on pace for 16 for the year. This follows a season in which Perry notched just 19 goals, the first time he didn’t mange 20 in ten seasons. Much as the Hawks saw with Marian Hossa for a few years, there’s been a decline in Perry’s shooting-percentage. The path has been 17.1%, 15.8%, 8.8%, and this year’s 8.2%. Of course, there is plenty of time for that to rebound this season, but the pattern is clear.
What has some eyebrows being raised in Orange County, at least the ones that aren’t drawn in and for those who are still able to actually manipulate the muscles in their face, is that Perry isn’t getting anywhere near the attempts he’s used to. He’s only managing 11.4 attempts per 60 minutes, which is down from 14.7 last year and the fifth consecutive season that number had dropped.
All of that adds up to Perry not getting the quality of chances as often as what made him one of the league’s most dangerous snipers. He’s individual expected goals per 60 is 0.5, a career-low by some margin. As you might imagine, Perry’s possession numbers have gone into the toilet along with his scoring metrics. Then again, everything is in the toilet with Perry as that’s his “special place.”
Clearly, Perry has struggled without Ryan Getzlaf, only totaling 60 minutes together so far this season. As we all know, living without your soulmate is tough, even if the higher connection is between two demented lizards like these two. With Getzlaf so far this season Perry’s possession numbers are almost break-even, which on this current iteration of the Ducks would be pretty high, as the Ducks can’t find their dicks with both hands at the moment. Perry is probably trying to heal Getzlaf’s broken face with his own hands, coming up with whatever eye-of-newt stew he has in the cauldron in the basement of the abandoned construction site he assuredly lives in.
Being 32 doesn’t mean it’s over, of course. Jarome Iginla, whose style Perry’s closely resembles in some ways, had three 30+ goal-seasons after the age of 32. Hossa managed a 30-goal season, a 29-goal one, and 26 last year after the age of 32. But what does appear to be clear is that Perry is going to need a playmaker of Getzlaf’s level to open him up, as he doesn’t quite get to the spots in the same way that he used to.
Perry is signed for three more years after this one, at a hit of $8.6 per season. Even if the Ducks hit the button on a rebuild after this season, no one’s going to rush to take that number unless Perry proves he’s going to have a revival in the sunset. The Ducks only have 10 skaters signed beyond this season, and Silfverberg is UFA after next season. There are going to be some hard decisions coming for GM Bob Murray.
Still, if the Ducks were to eat a portion of Perry’s salary and were determined to start over, Perry can probably still provide second-line scoring for three or four more years. That might be valuable enough to get someone to bite. But the Ducks aren’t there yet. They just might get there sooner than they thought.
Game #23 Preview
Our friend Jen has been our Ducks outlet for more years than she’d probably like to remember. She’s a former contributor to Puck Daddy as well, but is much more pleasant than Wyshynsky. You can follow her on Twitter @MsJenNeale.
|
Been something of a rough start for the Ducks, but Getzlaf, Kesler, Vatanen, Fowler, and Eaves have all missed some or a lot of time. Are the injuries solely to blame or is there more to it?
You’re forgetting Lindholm, Rakell, Ryan Miller, and Ondrej Kase, too. It’s an entire starting lineup worth of injuries.
I don’t like the ‘injury excuse’ because every team goes through it, but seriously, it’s like The Walking Dead around here. However, I’m surprised the Ducks aren’t worse than they are.
As much as I am loathed to admit it, John Gibson has played pretty well more often than not. He’s facing upwards of 30+ shots a night, and kept them in it when they really shouldn’t be.
Corey Perry – four goals. Coming off a year where he only netted 19, is there some fear this is the great descent for him?
What I found fascinating is coming into camp Perry refused to answer any questions about last season. Maybe being a new dad threw him off his game (a la Getzlaf when he had his first kiddo).
With Getzlaf out of the lineup, Perry has taken over as the guy who passes all the time. He has 13 assists, but honestly, I’d rather see him score goals.
I am afraid this might be the beginning of a descent. Carlyle won’t even play him in OT because he’s so slow and his puck possession is terrible.
Because of all the injuries, the Ducks have had to lean on a fair amount of kids and call-ups. Are any of them worth paying attention to long-term?
I really like Kalle Kossila. He was just recalled with the injury to Rakell. He has the potential to be as dynamic as the player he’s replacing. The problem is he makes one mistake and Carlyle puts him on the fourth line playing three minutes a night. He scored a “Michigander” goal for the Gulls last year. Google that shit.
The other kid to watch is Jaycob “Liquid Hot” Megna – if you want to feel old, he didn’t get that reference at first. He’s back in San Diego (for now), but he’ll eventually be another strong blueliner for the club.
The Ducks have only 10 skaters signed for next year. If they don’t turn things around somewhat soon, is there a sense they might start shipping off some of their impending free agents?
To be honest, I’m not sure. Bob Murray’s decisions from his perch atop Mount Doom remain secret. Although we’re reaching the time near the Christmas break where he rips the team a new one and they wake up. It’s tradition. Not sure how he can temper that message given the vets he usually rips are all injured.
My main concern is the contract of Andrew Cogliano. He has yet to sign a new deal, and it doesn’t sound like one is close. I can’t emphasize enough how important he is to the team. That being said, he’ll probably be on the Hawks by the end of the season (ohpleaseohpleaseohplease – ED).
Given that situation, do the Ducks feel that this might be the last go with this particular group?
I believe they have two more years as a group before they’re completely irrelevant.
Game #23 Preview |
Yeah, we’re just using this as an excuse to run this again. Sue us.
Game #23 Preview
All stats at even strength unless noted. All adjusted for score and venue.
Game #23 Preview
