All analytic stats at even-strength and adjusted for scores and venue. Info courtesy of Corsica and Natural Stat Trick.
Game #25 Preview
There really is no better theater than when a Canadian team is bad. And it’s exponentially better when that team was expected to be good. So here’s the latest lunacy going on in Edmonton.
This is hardly the first time we’ve seen that a goon’s absence is the main fulcrum for a team’s collapse. It usually comes out of Boston, and word is their construction of a Shawn Thornton statue to place in the middle of the dressing room is almost complete. And no, you won’t be allowed to step on it, though that won’t stop Pierre McGuire from making love to it upon his every visit to TD Garden, along with some possible pitstops as he’s covering games anywhere in the Northeast. And there’s an image to get you through the rest of the day.
Hockey is the leader in attaching “value” to players who have none and calling it leadership. It kind of works because I’m sure players actually buy into this shit. If they were to look at it logically, you’d probably get Leon Draisaitl thinking, “Why the fuck am I going to listen to a guy whose inability to skate four minute competently causes me to have to skate 22 a night and then kill his penalties?” Yeah, that would be a fair question.
It’s not germane to hockey, of course. Remember when the Cubs’ early season struggles were blamed on the absence of David Ross and the pool noodle he brought to the plate? But hey, Ross at least was still a very good defensive catcher who could throw guys out. He had value somewhere.
None of this is helped by the fact that the team Matt Hendricks defected to, the Winnipeg Jets, are having a surprise start to the season. But to the hockey media, especially north of the 49th. there has to be a mythic quality to everything. This stems from the bullshit narrative that hockey players are somehow “special” instead of the same genetic freaks that every other professional athlete is. So the Jets success isn’t really just based on Connor Hellebuyck finally fulfilling the promise he showed in lower leagues and ages and the Jets shooting the lights out. No, there’s an element of magic to it, magic that only “glue” guys like Hendricks contain and have spread out of his pores and infect everyone else in the dressing room. Because Blake Wheeler hasn’t been perhaps the league’s premier power forward before Hendricks showed up.
As for Edmonton, the problems are so obvious that I suppose everyone there is just fatigued of talking about them. Their blue line sucks. It’s sucked for years. They have no bottom six or really any wingers of note when Draisaitl is in the middle. And Cam Talbot just hasn’t been quite as good as he was to bail them all out. And they have no backup again, so he’s playing all the games and his muscles and tendons are going to be paste at any moment now.
But clearly, no team can just lose. They must be missing something, like a dunderhead who can’t play barking at them from the bench on how many minutes per goal they can take to overhaul a two-goal deficit or talk shit from the bench. That’s my favorite part, how these are called leaders because they talk while not playing. Yeah you know what happens when you talk shit to LeBron from the bench? He drops 40 on you and then goes and sits on the bench himself because his team is up 25. I live for the day that like, Tarasenko scores a goal and then takes the puck and flips it to Hendricks as he skates by because he wouldn’t shut up from the bench. Hockey would lose its fucking mind and it would be hilarious.
If Connor McDavid can’t be a captain because Hendricks isn’t around, then maybe they shouldn’t have put the “C” on him in the first place. If he doesn’t think his skills and importance don’t give him every right to jack up Milan Lucic and get him to actually do things that help the team, what’s the point?
But no, it’s never that simple, is it?
The worst kept secret in hockey right now is that Alex DeBrincat is tearing up the NHL. After getting off to bit of a slow start, with just four points in his first 11 games, he went on a tear in November, with 15 points in his 14 games (including October 28). In that time, he’s had two point streaks of three games and one of four, and notched four points in the Hawks’ Monday-Tuesday back-to-back against Anaheim and Nashville this week, including his first career hat-trick against the Ducks, before scoring another goal Thursday night against the Stars.
When we did the player previews back in September, I wrote in pretty good detail about how much scoring potential Top Cat had. He tore up the OHL year after year, and basically only fell as far as he did in the 2016 draft because hockey can’t get over it’s fascination with size and girth. Despite all of our nerves that the Blackhawks would ignore his strong pre-season and make him start the season in the A, he forced the issue and was able to make the team out of camp. And he hasn’t disappointed at all.
Among the Blackhawks, Whiskers is second on the team in both goals and points, with 10 and 18, respectively. In the league, he’s tied for 36th in goals and tied for 70th in points, which is pretty damn good for a 19-year-old with 24 games under his belt. He has as many or more goals than the likes of Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, and several other stars. Again, that’s good.
What’s really good is the fact that he’s done all this despite the fact that he’s spent most of the year condemned out of the top six by his mustachioed coach for a reason that has yet to been made public. And though I’m not here to re-hash arguments made on here already, as Sam detailed the other day, Q hasn’t explained himself in any way to lend justification to ADB’s tethering to Patrick Sharp’s opposite wing, or Nick Schmaltz playing wing instead of center, which is pretty much definitely keeping ADB on that third line. Lucky for Q, I am here to do it for him.
We don’t really need an explanation from Q, anyhow, because we all know that any explanation we might get would be completely unsatisfactory and/or filled with some random bullshit. We’d probably hear some reference to the idea of him being on the third line if it’s meant to avoid tougher competition, but at this point Top Cat has proven that he’s worthy of, at the very least, an opportunity to face that competition with higher quality teammates, so that argument would fall flat with most Hawks fans. Even with that, though, I still wonder if any sort of lineup promotion is really best for DeBrincat right now.
We’ve been stressing our desire for DeBrincat to play on a wing with Schmaltz and Kane for so long that there’s hardly any of the dead horse left to beat, but his hat trick on Monday gave us an even better look at the fit those three could have. Twice during line changes, he added goals that were assisted by – guess who – Schmaltz or Kane. The three of them have such similar skill sets and playing styles that the fit seems obvious, but with the recent success of the Schmaltz-Anisimov-Kane second line, it’s hard to imagine Q making too many changes to the lineup right now. Schamltz is still probably better off playing the pivot than the wing, but that’s a conversation for another time. The point is, all three of the guys on that second line have been playing well this year, especially in the most recent stretch of games, so you could question if breaking up that line even makes any sense at all right now.
DeBrincat, though, has also shown that he’s good enough to elevate whoever he ends up on a line with at any given time. Look no further than the Hawks’ first goal against Nashville on Tuesday, when he won a puck battle deep in the offensive zone, on a rush, during a line change, and then threaded a pass through all five Predators that was so perfect even Tommy Wingels couldn’t fuck up the tap in. If the Hawks want to roll out three scoring lines – which we know they do – there really isn’t a better fit to be the main threat on that third line right now than Top Cat. Do you trust Richard Panik to produce meaningfully away from Toews and Saad? What about Anisimov without Kane? Do you really want Patrick Sharp to be the focal point of a scoring line at this point? Me either.
So while Top Cat is most definitely not a third line winger by any stretch of the imagination, and having him on another line might provide a better fit for his style, he might actually be best off left alone for now.
First Screen Viewing
Lightning v. Bruins – 6:30
Somehow this is a “rivalry,” because they played in the playoffs once. You might remember it from 2011 as the first boring-as-shit Guy Boucher-led conference final you’ve had the displeasure of continuing to breathe through. And because it’s Boucher and nothing ever happens, they both went seven life-is-meaningless-and-empty games. Anyway, of the four games tonight only two feature two teams above .500 so we’ll pick this one. The Lightning are still fun, even if their coach spends most of the night finding out where the good BU parties are (hint: there is no such thing). The Bruins are…the Bruins. There’s Bergeron and that’s about it. You can marvel at the sheer moon-ness of Charlie McAvoy’s face.
Other Games
Senators vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Ducks vs. Blues – 8pm
Jets vs. Avalanche -8:30
There’s many things you can label the ’17-’18 Hawks so far, but one of them isn’t “boring.” Whether they’ve been playing like dogshit earlier in the year or this current form where they’ve played pretty well (whatever last night’s result), the Hawks haven’t been dull. In previous years, even when they were the class of the league, things could get rote. The past two years when they’ve had their wonky periods, it hasn’t been nearly as interesting at this team even when it’s not playing well.
You’ve heard us mention it before, but the Hawks are the highest-event team in the league. By that we mean there are more total attempts, both for and against the Hawks, in their games than anyone else’s. What’s staggering is just how high-event they are.
Ok, it’s going to get a little number-y here, so I’m putting that out there so you can get your glasses on or make some tea or stretch a bit. Whatever you need to do to receive the data about to be thrown at you. Ok, here we go.
So far this year, the Hawks have 108.4 total attempts at even-strength in their games per 60 minutes (adjusted for score and such). This is tops in the league, and by some distance. The next highest is Anaheim at 104.5. That gap between 1st and second of four attempts per 60 minutes is the same between Anaheim and the Rangers in 11th.
What’s a bit staggering is that if this were to continue through the end of the season, it would be the highest mark by miles in five seasons. No team in the past five years has had more than 103 attempts in their games in the past five years (Ottawa in ’13-’14). The Hawks are basically miles above what has come in recent history.
But ah…. it’s not so simple. If you liked the homer binge in MLB this year, then hockey might just be for you this year as well. At the moment, 11 teams are averaging more than 100 attempts in their games per 60 minutes at even-strength. In the previous four seasons, no more than four teams have averaged more than 100 attempts in their games per season. Clearly, something is going on.
Now, as we know, things tend to flatten out as the season goes along, players get bored/hurt, coaches start reining things in to consolidate position, whistles go in pockets. We’d have to see what the marks look like in previous years at this point in the schedule. But still, it’s something of a different environment. Has the crackdown on slashing and such opened up a little more room on the ice? So far it sure looks like it, given how many teams are becoming more high-event. As we said, the Senators back in ’13-’14 had the highest event games in the past five years, and currently six teams are above that mark so far this season.
What does it mean for success? That’s a little more sobering. Currently, the six teams above that 103.5 mark are the Hawks, Ducks, Flames, Canadiens, Hurricanes, and Penguins. None of these teams are atop their divisions, though the Flames and Penguins are at least in touching distance. Last year, the top five event teams were the Leafs, Penguins, Stars, Islanders, and Coyotes. That’s a pretty decent team, champs, and three non-playoff teams.
In ’15-’16, the top five event teams were the Stars, Flyers, Leafs, Avs and Islanders. That’s three playoff teams and two big bags of suck in the Leafs and Avs. And none of the Flyers, Stars, or Islanders saw the conference final.
In ’14-’15, the top five event teams were the Stars (sensing a theme?), Islanders, Sharks, Coyotes, Flames. The Islanders and Flames made the playoffs, and only the Flames won a round.
In ’13-’14, the top five event teams were the Senators, Leafs, Sharks, Hurricanes, and Stars. The Sharks were a 111-point team that blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings (you might have heard about it), the Stars made the playoffs before getting whacked by the Ducks.
So yeah, you can make the playoffs if you’re this entertaining, but of the 26 teams we just discussed only one went on to win a Cup and there hasn’t even been another conference finalist on that list.
When looking at just the Hawks, this is a huge increase in their attempts for and against. So it’s not like you can just say, “Oh their defense is responsible.” Quite simply their games are just more open, their offense creating more than it has in five years. But we’ve never see a Quenneville team surrender over 50 attempts per game, and it doesn’t appear to be a recipe for success.
Fresh off an understandable loss to the Preds last night, we take a look at the last week and what it portends to. Get the audio after the jump. No subscription needed.
In general, I’m not a fan of back-to-backs that involve travel. I am especially not a fan of them when it involves having to go play the Predators, who are arguably the fastest team in the West. You’re gonna see a naturally slower Blackhawks team going up against a pack of shitheads and fuckwads that are pretty much going to skate circles around them, and that’s pretty much what happened tonight as Nashville swarmed the Hawks to the tune of a 3-2 win. Let’s get to it:
- The thing is, though, I am not that frustrated or disheartened by this loss. Again, the Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back, and had to travel in the middle of the night. Nashville had the day off yesterday, so they were clearly more fresh, and since you’d already give them the legs advantage in this matchup, I’d say all the Preds did was hold serve. The Hawks looked fine and created some chances that they unfortunately couldn’t capitalize on. Move on.
- I am slightly confused, though, by the decision to start Crawford at home against Anaheim and Forsberg on the road against Nashville. Not that Forsberg played poorly tonight, because he was actually solid, but the decision was just puzzling. I guess it makes a bit more sense to give your starter the extra night off on the back end of it, and the more welcoming environment of home (the Nashville crowd is insufferable anyhow), but I would’ve been inclined to save Crow for the better, divisional opponent.
- But Forsberg ended up playing very well in the spot. He made a lot of key saves, looked confident, and was pretty much in the right spot for just about every shot Nashville took. I can’t pin any of the Preds goals on him. I’ll take more of this from him.
- Patrick Kane was snakebitten tonight, and it became pretty clear that it got to him. NBC did a lot of focusing on him because of his missed chances in the first, and he just looked frustrated. Then he took a silly penalty in the third that led to the third Nashville goal, sealing the deal.
- Garbage Dick wasn’t the only one that couldn’t catch a break, though. Just about the whole top nine was unable to convert on some good chances. Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma had the Hawks’ only goals. So.
- Top Cat did another Top Cat thing tonight, winning a puck battle in behind the Nashville goal (turns out being big isn’t necessary for those, who knew) and then sending a fucking dime of a pass through all five Predators that was so perfectly placed that even Tommy Wingels couldn’t fuck it up. Seriously, go watch the play. My pants got a bit tighter.
- Speaking of, Wingels was a consistent scoring threat tonight. Yes you read that right. No, I don’t want to type it ever again. But here’s how surreal it was: Q put him out with the net empty and 52 seconds left after a Nashville icing, and I did not scream at my television. Life is weird.
- Guess which defenseman got spun around and caught out of position on Nashville’s first goal. You only get one, but that’s all you need.
- All three games between these teams have been one goal games this year. These teams are closer than most would like to give the Hawks credit for.
Next is Dallas on Thursday night. Onward.
Beer du jour: Dos Perros by Yazoo Brewing. I thought a Nashville beer might bring some luck in that city. I am truly sorry.
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Game Time: 7:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN National, WGN-AM 720
Fuck David Poile: On The Forecheck
With the next stop on this Freakout Hell Bus Ride of 5 games in 7 nights for the Hawks, they find themselves once again in Nash Vegas, where they’ll take on the league’s secret scumbag team masquerading as its sweetheart, the Predators, who somehow once again look different than the last time the Hawks saw them.
It’s rare we get a blockbuster trade in the NHL. Most GMs would cover themselves in their own piss for anything that put their name in league-wide headlines, and even the ones that want to get out there are severely handicapped by the salary cap. So it’s strange that David Poile has been part of two of the biggest trades in the league the past two seasons. First it was PK Subban for Shea Weber, and then Poile pulled the trigger on the #2 center his team needed since he pulled the trigger on another huge deal for Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones. When it comes to taking chances, Poile seems to be way ahead of his competition.
Is Turris the final piece for the Predators? It sure feels that way. The Preds have been short down the middle for what seems like their entire existence. Last year when Ryan Johansen went down they were forced to go forward with Mike Fisher and Calle Jarnkrok. Those are fine players but not quite enough. They were just good enough to break the Predators heart.
It took Turris a lot longer to become a real player in the NHL than the player he was picked two spots behind in 2007, which would be Patrick Kane. He didn’t play his first year, and then was inserted into a pretty terrible situation with Wayne Gretzky behind the bench. Turris clearly saw that it would never work in Arizona, asking out just about as soon as he could, when his entry-level deal was up.
Turris took off in his second year in the Northern Capital, which was the abbreviated season of 2013. Since then, Turris has averaged better than a point every two games, or 50+ in other words if you go that way. He was counted on for #1 center production in Ottawa, which wasn’t really fair to him as that’s not what he is. Turris’s most effective years came with Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone. Last year Turris was asked to help out with kid Ryan Dzingel and the slowly bloating Bobby Ryan, and his production dropped a touch.
Once again, it seemed that Turris read the writing on the wall where he was, and didn’t sign an extension in Ottawa. Or he was just bored out of his mind. With Eugene Melynyk’s internal budget and the pure torture of Guy Boucher’s system, Turris forced the Senators’ hand. He seems to have landed in the perfect situation.
Turris has been asked to finally get something out of Kevin Fiala. Early returns are good, as Fiala has put up seven points in the eight games since Turris arrived and became his center. Craig Smith also has seven points in Turris’s eight games, and they’ve been the one line in Nashville that isn’t surrendering far better chances than they are creating. Which hasn’t really mattered given how Rinne has played and how they’ve finished at the other end of late.
Turris was immediately signed to a six-year extension at $6 million per season, which sets the Preds up pretty swell for the next few years. Only Fiala among the forwards comes up for a new deal in the next two years, at least of the forwards who matter. Ryan Ellis is due a new deal after next year, and he’s going to get a massive raise and may have to find it elsewhere. And after next season Pekka Rinne’s deal is up. If they want him to stay they certainly can get him to come down from his current $7 million at 37. Johansen, Arvidsson, Turris, Bonino, Forsberg, Smith, Subban, Josi, Ekholm are all locked in. That’s about as good of a core locked up as you’ll find anywhere.
It certainly appears to be all systems go for the Predators this season, and you wonder who can match Johansen-Turris-Bonino down the middle. It’s certainly not the Blues. It could be the Oilers, but they are rotting sushi just about everywhere else. Maybe the Flames in a conference final, but they have issues as well. The Jets? Anyone counting on the Jets for anything ever?
The runway lights are on for the Predators now, that’s for sure.
Game #24 Preview
Lineups And How Teams Were Built
Hayley is a contributor to OnTheForecheck.com. You can follow her on Twitter @ItsHalesYeah.
6-1 since the Kyle Turris acquisition. Clearly it’s all systems go for the Predators. What’s been the biggest difference he has provided?
The Preds offense has lacked center depth for so long, finally acquiring a 2C out of a guy Ottawa was running as a 1C is huge for this team. He was a renewed confidence boost they needed badly before the trade. Any time a new guy comes in and shakes things up I think it helps the guys who have struggled, work out whatever issues they’ve been having, and get back to playing their game. Turris has definitely taken some pressure off of Ryan Johansen, who was slow to start this year. Knowing that he has some depth behind him now should keep this team rolling deep into the post season again.
If there’s any concern, Juuse Saros has struggled in limited appearances. Is there a fear that Pekka Rinne might have to play too many games if Saros can’t turn it around?
Saros is young and talented, but spending too much time on the bench isn’t good for anyone. He could benefit from spending a few short trips to the AHL to get some playing time in. As for Rinne, he’s been a workhorse for this team for the past few seasons. It’s a role he’s comfortable with and thrives on. My faith in Rinne has not faltered, despite all the backlash he’s gotten the past few seasons. His play during last year’s playoff run and this season has shown he has one goal and that’s to win the cup before he retires. For the first time in a few seasons, Rinne is the least of Nashville’s concerns.
Truly scary that Ryan Ellis has yet to suit up this season. When he returns do you see Peter Laviolette keeping the top two pairs as is and having Ellis on the third?
Being without Ellis has hindered the defense significantly this season. While Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Mattias Ekholm can hold their own, it’s left an odd rotation to the top pairs. Matt Irwin is a solid anchor for the third line but isn’t really a top pairing kind of defensemen. Guys like Yannick Weber and Alexei Emelin have not been great this season either, keeping either one of them on the top lines probably wouldn’t work out for long. As long as Ellis is healthy he easily slides back into the top two pairings as he should. I can’t see any reason why Laviolette would do anything differently.
A strange aspect to the Preds so far is that while they’ve been consistently one of the better analytic/sabermetric teams over the years, this year they’re not creating as many “good” chances as years past. Obviously this hasn’t been a problem in actually scoring goals, especially of late, but is this something you see?
The start of this season was not the best showing for the Preds. While they’re not creating as many good chances, they’ve also missed a lot of chances as well. I think the addition of Turris and guys like Scott Hartnell and Ryan Ellis getting healthy will help the Preds create better chances and finish them.
Now that we’re more than a quarter into this season, does it feel even more like Cup Or Bust for the Predators than it did before the season?
This is such a young team, I think they’ll be Cup contenders for a while. That being said the city of Nashville is ready for a Stanley Cup winning team, and if any Preds team can get it done, it’s this one.
