In this week’s installment we discuss the ramifications of the Hawks’ transactions from Monday, the larger scale implications of Vegas’ success halfway through the season, and of course some talk BOUT DIS NAGGY GUY EVEN DOE PACE STILL HAS A JOB towards the end. The podcasts will always remain after the jump because we’re all about giving our adoring public what they want.
Been stewing over this one since Friday night. It’s no secret that we are not huge fans of Eddie Olczyk’s analysis work here at the FFUD labs. While I’m tempted to give him a break this season due to his current health struggles and stop-start schedule, this particularly angle is one that demonstrates not just his shortcomings in the booth, but the inaccessibility of hockey coverage as a whole. I’m sure Eddie is having to put forth a huge effort just to get through a game these days, and I salute him for it. This is just a nugget in a much larger problem.
In the 3rd period of Friday’s loss to the Knights Who Say Vegas, Pat and Eddie began to discuss Connor Murphy. Of course, nowhere was it mentioned that Murphy has been the Hawks best d-man for about two months, which of course didn’t stop him from being scratched yesterday because TREE CUPZ. Anyway, they were discussing his transition to the Hawks and settling in with a new team.
During the discussion, at least twice and I think three times, Olczyk said, “The Hawks have a complicated system.” At no point did Eddie dare to explain what was so complicated about it, what was so different about it from the one Murphy played in Arizona, or what specifically Murphy struggled with at first. All we got was basically Lewis Black’s, “It’s really hard. Makes me wanna go poopy!”
This is the problem with hockey analysis everywhere. Either all analysts assume we’ll never understand, or they’re full of shit and they don’t really have any idea what they’re watching anyway. So how exactly is anyone supposed to learn anything about the game they’re watching and become more attached.
Here’s the thing, and Fifth Feather is fond of when we say this, but no hockey system is The Mike Martz Route Tree. There are differences with each team, but no one’s doing anything revolutionary here.
Maybe there’s more nuance to the Hawks’ tactics, but would it have been so hard for Olczyk to point out that the Hawks like to have their d-men step up at both blue lines whenever possible? That they rely on back pressure from the forwards to do that? That they’d rather cause turnovers in the neutral zone or in the offensive zone then force dump-ins to their own zone as a lot of teams, like the Coyotes, do? Would it have been so hard to explain that the Hawks want their d-men to be able to make that five-to-ten foot pass to a waiting center in front of their net when under pressure below the goal line and/or in the corner? Hawks fans have watched Keith, Seabrook (he did once, I swear), and Hjalmarsson make that play for about a decade now. Would it have been so impossible to explain that on breakouts, the Hawks like their d-men to hit a curling forward in between the circles, and on the move, and if that’s not there to use the forward on the boards who will then hit said curling forward out of the zone? If you’re talking to a Hawks audience, we’ve all seen that. And if you have a new fan, isn’t that something they’d want to watch for?
One of the problems hockey has in attracting new fans is that to a lot of them it just looks like a mad scramble. And if you’re watching the Hawks in their own zone this year, it really looks like a mad scramble. It could only help if everyone had a clearer idea of what teams and players are actually trying to do.
But you never get that. I’m not a huge NBA fan, though getting bigger, and yet I can tell you how Tom Thibodeau teams play a pick-n-roll or how the Warriors move the ball or how James Harden does what James Harden does. Because they take the time to tell you. Fuck, aren’t we all NFL experts on how to run an offense (except for Dowell Logains, of course)? Hockey doesn’t even give you the depth of knowledge that would allow you to know the difference between a 4-3 and 3-4 defense.
It would hardly kill NHL analysts to show us how maybe one team covers the front of the net with the weakside d-man for the most part, though some want both their d-men chasing the puck and cover the routes to the net with forwards.
Because there aren’t nearly the variables in how to run things in hockey as there are in other sports. Maybe that’s a lack of new ideas but it’s the reality.
And yet we just get, “It’s a complicated system.” Which basically hangs Murphy out to dry because barely anyone can understand what he’s trying to adjust to. Or could it be these guys just don’t know and take Q’s words for it? That might explain why Olczyk wasn’t much of a coach, though that can’t be it. Or at least all of it, for sure. Fuck, we knew why the Mike Martz Route Tree was so fucking hard because it took so long to develop and also nearly got Jay Cutler killed.
It just can’t be that hard to find someone who can do that. It’s not Olczyk, and it isn’t Pierre McGuire who I’m sure doesn’t know the difference because he’s too busy memorizing OHL stats from 1997. Which means less people will know what they’re watching, which means they’ll be less inclined to do so, and who does that help?
The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks, will be embarking on a pivotal road trip this week. At six games, it is the longest time away from the BMO Harris Bank Center this season.
This is a key stretch; after a very friendly schedule to begin the season, the piglets are going to have to get it done in the opposition’s barn for a while. With two rookie goalies still trying to get acclimated to AHL competition, Rockford is in danger of dovetailing out of playoff contention.
In what is proving to be quite the log jam behind Central Division-leading Manitoba, Rockford is finding themselves drifting down the ladder. The Hogs started the week in second place. As of Monday morning, they’re in fifth following a 1-2-0-1 week.
The play in net has been inconsistent. After Jeff Glass’s promotion to the Hawks, Rockford has won just twice in its last seven games. Rockford’s young club has grown accustomed to a bit of a Get Out Of Jail Free card behind them. That is not going to be the case as this road trip begins.
The IceHogs power play has perked up, with goals in each game of what was the team’s final three-in-three stretch of the campaign. However, the penalty kill gave up five goals in 11 opportunities for the opposition. The Hogs also surrendered a key shorthanded goal to Milwaukee Sunday that cost them a point in what became a shootout loss to the Admirals.
The youngsters have fared well in the first half of the 2017-18 season. Now comes a real gut-check of a second half…hop on the bus, Gus.
Rockford will be playing 24 of its final 39 games as the visiting team from now until the regular season ends. The Hogs are 6-7-0-1 on the road heading into action this week. For this team to nab a spot in the playoffs, they will have to be better than that.
The trip begins with a California swing that will see Rockford play three games in four days. First up is Ontario on Wednesday night. The IceHogs next visit San Jose and Bakersfield on Friday and Saturday.
Coincidentally, the Reign, Barracuda and Condors occupy the last three spots in the AHL’s Pacific Division right now. Battling cellar-dwellers isn’t all its cracked up to be; Rockford managed just one win in three games with Cleveland and Grand Rapids.
Next week, Rockford visits Cleveland on January 17 and 19 before wrapping up the trip in Grand Rapids. The boys will likely return to Rockford for a few days following the return from the coast, so it won’t be quite as demanding as it sounds.
However, Chicago (and Milwaukee to a lesser extent) is surging right now. Grand Rapids is starting to put together wins. The results of this jaunt could factor into playoff potential for the IceHogs in a few months.
Nay, Cap’n?
We are well into the fourth month of the season and Hogs coach Jeremy Colliton has yet to announce a captain for his club. Will Colliton find leadership out on the road?
At home, the “A”s have been on the sweaters of Laurent Dauphin, Ville Pokka and Luke Johnson.
On the road, the “A”s have been worn by Erik Gustafsson, Viktor Svedberg and Andreas Martinsen.
This week, the latter group wore the letters on Tuesday (home game), Friday (road game) and Saturday (home game). On Sunday (home game), the regular home group displayed letters.
Wrinkle: The red sweaters, usually worn on the road, were used on the aforementioned games Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. Sunday, Rockford wore the alternate sweaters. Maybe they just didn’t want to take the letters off.
Seems like the team leaders should have emerged by this point. Maybe someone upgrades to a “C” when the team returns to the BMO. Stay tuned.
All Stars Named
Two Rockford skaters were named to the Central Division squad for the 2018 All-Star Classic, to be held January 28-29. Well…one Rockford skater and one Blackhawks skater.
Erik Gustafsson will be making his first appearance in the event. Vinnie Hinostroza will likely need a substitute for his spot on the team, unless the Hawks send him back to Rockford before the end of the month. Hey…how about Matthew Highmore? The rookie leads Rockford in points (26) and goals (17).
Roster Happenings
No movement from the Hogs this past week. I’d think a recall might be in order this week, though.
Rockford has been skating with 12 forwards on the current roster since David Kampf was recalled to Chicago. Alexandre Fortin was a late scratch on Sunday; it might be beneficial to have an extra forward for the road trip.
Luc Snuggerud has still not returned to the lineup. He’s been out since December 8. Carl Dahlstrom was also a scratch Sunday. Rockford still has seven healthy defensemen if both Snuggerud and Dahlstrom are unavailable.
A return hasn’t been announced for injured goalie J.F. Berube; I’m guessing he will not be ready to play in California and sits out that half of the trip.
Recaps
Tuesday, January 2-Cleveland 4, Rockford 1
A pair of former IceHogs factored heavily in the Monsters coming to town and handing Rockford its third straight loss. Local products Alex and Terry Broadhurst have four of Cleveland’s seven goals against the IceHogs this season. Three of those came Tuesday for the last-place Monsters.
Cleveland got the scoring started when Terry Broadhurst got an open look in front of Hogs goalie Colin Delia in the opening minutes. Delia made the pad save, but the rebound came right back to Broadhurst and the second attempt got over that left pad an into the net at the 3:23 mark.
Rockford had several chances to even the score. Alexandre Fortin got a stretch pass and was way behind the defense. However, his backhand attempt was snuffed out by Cleveland rookie goalie Matiss Kivelnieks. The IceHogs had two power plays in the first 20 minutes but squandered both chances.The Monsters led 1-0 through the first period.
Rockford would whiff on another man advantage midway through the second before Laurent Dauphin was sent to the box. The Monsters power play, worst in the league headed into the contest, came up with a goal at 11: 14 of the second when Paul Bittner stuck back a rebound of Alex Broadhurst’s attempt.
The Hogs trailed 2-0 for most of the remainder of the game. With 3:44 left in the final period, Tomas Jurco tossed the puck toward Kivelnieks from the left corner of the offensive zone. The tough-angle shot struck the Cleveland goalie and settled into the net.
The hope of tying the game prompted Rockford coach Jeremy Colliton to pull Delia in the final minutes. Terry Broadhurst outraced Anthony Louis for a loose puck and poked it down the ice into the empty net to put Cleveland up 3-1 with 1:18 remaining.
Colliton brought Delia to the bench again; this time Alex Broadhurst was the recipient of an empty net after catching up to Brady Austin’s clearing pass. Broadhust guided the puck into the Hogs net with 15 seconds remaining.
Delia had his best night since being called up to the IceHogs. He wasn’t spectacular but turned in a solid effort, stopping 22 of the 24 shots he faced. Most nights, that would have been enough to earn a win. Just not on this night.
Kivelnieks’s 35-save performance earned him the game’s first star, followed by Terry (2 G) and Alex (1 G, 2 A) Broadhurst.
Lines (Starters in italics; Rockford went with 11 forwards and 7 defensemen)
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero-Tomas Jurco
Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson-William Pelletier
Graham Knott-Laurent Dauphin
Erik Gustafsson (A)-Darren Raddysh
Robin Norell-Ville Pokka
Carl Dahlstrom-Viktor Svedberg (A))
Brandon Anselmini
Colin Delia
Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Robin Press, Matheson Iacopelli , Jordin Tootoo, J.F. Berube
Power Play (0-3)
Highmore-Kero-Jurco-Louis-Gustafsson
Fortin-Johnson-Raddysh-Dahlstrom-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Cleveland was 1-1)
Highmore-Kero-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Johnson-Jurco-Gustafsson-Norell
Sikura-Martinsen-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Friday, January 5-Grand Rapids 5, Rockford 3
Grand Rapids got the scoring started midway through the first with a wide open back door conversion on the power play. The fireworks came in the middle frame.
The Hogs and Griffins traded goals three times, starting two minutes into the second with a Dominik Shine tally. Just seconds later, Matheson Iacopelli and Graham Knott played a little patty cake on a 2-on-1 rush, culminating in Iacopelli’s seventh goal of the season at 2:17.
IceHogs goalie Colin Delia misplayed a puck behind his own net following the center ice faceoff. As happens in these situations, it would up in the back of his net, courtesy of Ben Street at 2:28 of the second.
The Griffins committed their own gaffe a few minutes later, turning the puck over between the circles in their own zone. Iacopelli was there to collect the gift. The rookie victimized the stick side of Grand Rapids goalie Jaren Coreau for the second time of the night, cutting the Griffins lead to 3-2 at 5:01 of the second.
Another misplay by Delia, this time off a Street shot, slid to Eric Tangradi at the right post. The veteran Griffins forward slid the offering across the goal line at 7:13 for a 4-2 Grand Rapids advantage.
Rockford returned fire with a power play goal at the 14:05 mark. The score was set up by an Erik Gustafsson blast from the point that rebounded off Coreau. Matthew Highmore was on the scene in front of the Griffins net to knock the puck in to close the gap to 4-3. That score held up into the second intermission.
Street’s second goal of the evening, a power play tally at 12:01 of the third, proved to be the nail in the Hogs coffin. Rockford threw 17 shots at Coreau in the final 20 minutes, but no dice.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero-Tomas Jurco
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson-William Pelletier
Graham Knott-Laurent Dauphin-Matheson Iacopelli
Robin Norell-Ville Pokka
Erik Gustafsson (A)-Darren Raddysh
Carl Dahlstrom-Viktor Svedberg (A))
Colin Delia
Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Robin Press, Jordin Tootoo, J.F. Berube
Power Play (1-2)
Highmore-Kero-Jurco-Louis-Gustafsson
Fortin-Johnson-Raddysh-Dahlstrom-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Monsters were 0-2)
Highmore-Kero-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Johnson-Jurco-Gustafsson-Norell
Sikura-Martinsen-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Saturday, January 6-Rockford 4, Cleveland 3 (SO)
Down two goals early, Rockford was able to rally to win the rematch with the Monsters at the BMO Harris Bank Center.
Sam Kurker and Zac Dalpe put Cleveland ahead 2-0 in the first period. Before the night got away from the Hogs, the Rockford power play got a puck behind Joonas Korpisalo. Erik Gustafsson sent a shot from the top of the right circle that the Monsters goalie stopped. Matthew Highmore and Tanner Kero took whacks at the loose puck until Tomas Jurco collected it at the extended goal line. His shot caught cord at 18:18 of the first period; Rockford skated into the locker room down 2-1.
The Hogs tied the game 15 seconds into the second when Highmore redirected a Gustafsson blast into the Griffins net. The 2-2 score held up until the midway point of the game. Cleveland forced a turnover in the IceHogs zone after Rockford had scored a clean faceoff win. Cameron Gaunce one-timed a Carter Camper set up past Colin Delia to put the Monsters up 3-2 at the 10:42 mark.
Rockford evened the score again five minutes later. Laurent Dauphin came in ahead of the Cleveland defense to get a puck on net. Korpisalo knocked it aside, but Tyler Sikura was on hand to collect the rebound in the right corner along the goal line. Sikura’s shot eluded Korpisalo and made it 3-3 at 15:51 of the second.
Neither team could manage a goal in the third period or overtime. In fact, the only shot that made it across a goal line came from the stick of Anthony Louis, who beat Korpisalo in the opening round of the shootout. Delia held off attempts from Dalpe and Terry and Alex Broadhurst to give Rockford the victory.
Highmore, Jurco and Alex Broadhurst were named the game’s three stars, but Delia deserves recognition in what may have been his strongest game to date in the IceHogs net. Delia stopped 29 of the 32 shots he faced, including a couple of big stops late in the game to keep the score even.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero-Tomas Jurco
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson-William Pelletier
Graham Knott-Laurent Dauphin-Matheson Iacopelli
Robin Norell-Ville Pokka
Erik Gustafsson (A)-Darren Raddysh
Carl Dahlstrom-Viktor Svedberg (A))
Colin Delia
Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Robin Press, Jordin Tootoo, J.F. Berube
Power Play (1-6)
Highmore-Kero-Jurco-Louis-Gustafsson
Fortin-Johnson-Raddysh-Dahlstrom-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Griffins were 2-4)
Highmore-Kero-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Johnson-Jurco-Gustafsson-Norell
Sikura-Martinsen-Dahlstrom-Svedberg
Sunday, January 7-Milwaukee 5, Rockford 4 (SO)
Rockford failed to hold on to a late advantage, picking up a single point but falling to the Admirals in the shooting competition.
The power play got the Hogs started on the scoreboard midway through the opening period. As the clock wound down on the man advantage, Tomas Jurco took a pass from Anthony Louis at he top of the left circle. He worked his way toward the faceoff dot before snapping home a winner past Ads goalie Anders Lindback at 10:35 of the first.
Rockford started the second period up 1-0 and on a power play, nearly scoring early in the period. However, some sloppy play in the neutral zone allowed a shorthanded break the other way. Mark Zengerle had a free look in the slot, beating Hogs goalie Matt Tomkins high to tie the game 1-1 at 1:26 of the middle frame.
The IceHogs regained the lead 12:07 into the period. Viktor Svedberg skated the puck out of his zone and all the way to the Admirals goal line. His backhanded centering attempt was knocked into the Milwaukee net by Matthew Highmore for a 2-1 Rockford advantage at 12:07.
Former Hogs forward Cody Bass brought the Admirals back to even about four minutes later, when he batted in a floating puck off the crossbar and into the Rockford cage. The officials took a long look at the replay before upholding the goal call on the ice. That made it 2-2 at the 16:03 mark; the score held up as the buzzer ended the second period.
Milwaukee grabbed a 3-2 lead on a Bobby Butler power play goal 1:10 into the third. This time, it was Rockford’s turn to reply. They did at the 5:28 mark when William Pelletier jumped on a Milwaukee turnover and fired past Lindback in the slot. The puck hit the left post, but Tanner Kero was there to knock it into the net for a 3-3 tie.
It looked as if the IceHogs were going to come away with a win after Tyler Sikura’s terrific redirect effort of Matheson Iacopelli’s shot attempt. The score put Rockford up 4-3 at 17:08 of the third period. However, with 58 seconds remaining and Lindback on the bench, Butler stuck in a rebound to knot the game at four goals.
Milwaukee, shooting second after neither team could end the contest in overtime, got a first-round goal from Justin Kirkland. Jurco, Rockford’s third shooter, hit on a backhand attempt. Harry Zolnierczyk beat Tomkins on the Ads final shot to claim the win for the visitors.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson-Tomas Jurco
Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero-William Pelletier
Laurent Dauphin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Graham Knott-Matheson Iacopelli
Erik Gustafsson (A)-Viktor Svedberg (A)
Robin Norell-Ville Pokka
Darren Raddysh-Brandon Anselmini
Robin Press
Matt Tomkins
Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Alexandre Fortin, Jordin Tootoo, Carl Dahlstrom, J.F. Berube
Power Play (1-3)
Highmore-Kero-Jurco-Louis-Gustafsson
Penalty Kill (Admirals were 1-4)
Highmore-Kero-Pokka-Svedberg
Johnson-Jurco-Gustafsson-Norell
Sikura-Martinsen-Pokka-Svedberg
This is the outcome you expect when you’re playing a team that has scored nine goals since its last regulation win eight games ago. The Oilers, once again, have managed to be a zoo without cages despite having a generational talent in David McConnor, and the Hawks took two points they needed on a drag-ass Sunday afternoon tilt. To the bullets.
– Let’s begin with the past in front: Nick Schmaltz’s game-opening goal is the sort of thing that should give Hawks fans the same sense of anticipation we all felt in the 08–09 season. His read off Rutta’s point shot was obscene, and he made Kris Russell look like the overrated pile of hockey garbage no one in broadcast wants to admit he is. Even better, Schmaltz gave Ryan Nugent-Hopkins every reason to have the long face he has, using him as a screen en route to an embarrassingly beautiful backhand against Cam “(Used to Be a) Cha-Cha” Talbot.
– On the topic of Jan Rutta, he had himself a nice game after a four-game absence. He carried a 56 CF% (and a precisely even 0.00 CF% Rel) and racked up an assist on Schmaltz’s wizardry. But no matter what, there’s absolutely no justification for slotting Rutta in place of Connor Murphy, who, over the past month, has been the best Hawks D-man by just about every metric. I get that Murphy had a rough go of it against Vegas, but unless Murphy were hurt or had the runs, scratching him is absurd.
Going further, I don’t think that Rutta’s good performance was a coincidence. Before his streak of sitting, he had begun to look sluggish and overpowered after several hockey writers, including yours truly, were champing at the bit to anoint him the savior of the Hawks’s blue line. It’s almost as if Rutta needs some extended time off during the season to recharge. There’s another Hawks D-man who probably needs it too, but it isn’t Murphy.
I know that we probably won’t ever see Seabrook as a healthy scratch because of this bullshit LEADERSHIP narrative that’s served as nothing more than justification for Seabrook’s contract, which the organ-I-zation threw at him like a farm boy throws a wedding ring at the girl who took his virginity. But I think that you’ll get better results letting Rutta slot in for Seabrook over Murphy or Kempný (who had a 59 CF% today). Both Rutta and Seabrook are right-handed shots who have shown signs of exhaustion throughout the season, and what would be a better example of leadership for Bottomless Pete than admitting that you don’t have the energy to play 82 games a year and give other, more physically fit players a slot to play? Fantasies, I know.
– Back in reality, there’s no doubt that Cam Talbot sucks. DeBrincat’s goal had no business ending up in the back of the net, since all Top Cat wanted to do was try to center Sharp. Nonetheless, credit where it’s due, as David Struggle had no trouble shrugging off a checking attempt from EA Sports–generated name Matt Benning behind the goal line to feed Top Cat. Kampf has looked pretty alright in his six games up, and he’s made that third line work somehow, as he, Top Cat, and Sharp had respective CF%s of 57+,61+, and 64+ today. It doesn’t have to make sense for you to take it.
– We got a taste of vintage Toews on the Hawks’s third goal. After Vinnie Hinostroza horsed Darnell Intern, both by skating by him and dropping a beauty of a backhand pass to Toews, Toews did that thing that makes me hope they retire his number with a “C” someday where he overpowers a defender and makes a one-handed pass to a drooling Brandon Saad. While one play does not a season make, it was nice to see Toews see a result for all the strong underlying numbers he’s had this year.
– Saad had a goal and 60 CF% at evens, but the eye test was a bit more mixed. He got pantsed by McDavid in the first and Draisaitl in the third, and he knuckle-pucked a nice pass from Vinnie in a high-danger zone in the third. Not to say that Saad isn’t a brute force, but today looked a little less godlike than I’m used to. I get he was up against the McDavid line, but he looked a bit more janky than normal.
– Gustav Forsling had a 61+ CF% at evens spending almost two-thirds of his time in the offensive zone. IT’S ALMOST AS IF THAT’S WHERE HE BELONGS.
– Aside from the weak Nurse goal, Forsberg looked good today. His rebound control is a much needed salve after watching Good Story Glass Jeff bounce biscuits off his pads for far, far longer than is acceptable for a team looking to vault into a wild card spot. Still, without Crawford, this team is going to run in place.
– I’m glad Eddie O. is healthy enough to do games again, but the way he toed the company line today made me look forward to Konroyd’s opium-den droning in Ottawa on Tuesday. Between blowing kisses at StanBo for signing Bouma and Wingels while the Hawks sit in last place in the division, lauding Seabrook for tapping on Forsberg’s pads after a bad goal, and chiding Kempný for an aggressive pinch in the second period (despite the fact that that’s what Kempný is good at doing), it almost made me miss Konroyd at home. I’m getting awfully tired of this SEABROOK IS A LEADER justification for his shit performance, and Eddie O. is the prime evangelist.
Oh, Jordan Oesterle had an unassisted goal today. To piggyback off this feat, the mantra of the upcoming week of hockey can only be KEEP FIRING, ASSHOLES!
Beer du Jour: Two Hearted
Line of the Night: “I love that play from Brent Seabrook.” –Eddie O. commenting on Brent Seabrook tapping Anton Forsberg’s pads after a soft goal, which is neither a play nor a way to justify Seabrook’s piss-poor performance anymore. It’s 2018, not 2013.
vs. 
RECORDS: Oilers 18-21-3 Hawks 19-15-6
PUCK DROP: 2pm
TV: WGN
ED-WOOD-TON: OilersNation.com
I don’t know who sanctioned a 2pm start, but they’re going to pay. Neither of these teams wants to be out during daylight hours right now. Hell, neither probably wants to be in public. Two teams that had designs on being a lot higher in the standings than they are will make it a lunch today on Madison St. Considering how things have gone for each team recently, a loss today is going to feel closer to terminal than it probably should. Though for the Oilers, it very well might be.
We’ll start with the Oilers, who have had maybe the biggest balls-up of a season this side of the Penguins. Since we last saw them last Friday, they’ve lost to the Jets, Kings, and Stars by a combined score of 15-1, while sneaking in a shootout victory over the Ducks in there. They’re below .500, miles out of a playoff spot, and really looking at the guillotine on this season very soon. They may even already be sellers, or should be, if you could find anyone on an expiring contract that anyone would want. The Chiarelli Panic Trade Countdown is getting awfully low.
It’s not hard to identify where things have gone wrong. One, Cam Talbot just plainly hasn’t been very good, and he’s been especially woeful on the penalty kill. That’s fed into their historically bad PK, which the power play isn’t making up for, and you can’t win games if you have to win at even-strength by two or three goals. It’s not all on Talbot for the penalty kill, however. The Oilers have the worst xGA/60 on the kill of anyone in the league and it isn’t even close. It’s over two goals worse per 60 than the team in 30th. That’s the same gap between 30th and 22nd. They just give up way too many good looks on the kill, and Talbot would have to perform miracles (MIRACLES!) to get through. He’s been quite the opposite, and hence you have this kindergarten recess.
On top of that, the Oilers just don’t have the finish to make their still-exemplary metrics count, as strange as that sounds. Yes, with Draisaitl now playing in the middle they might have the best center-depth in the West. Certainly in the Pacific. And yet with no wingers that you’d piss on if they were on fire, other than maybe Puljujarvi, it’s almost rendered useless. Run CMD can spin all the golden yarn he wants but if he’s waiting five seconds for Milan Lucic to catch up, who the fuck cares? This is a team where a suspension of Pat Maroon actually matters. You don’t want to be that team. Peter Kriss doesn’t even want to be that team.
All this has masked the fact that the defense has actually improved, though still isn’t Final-contender worthy which is where the Oilers had their eyes set before the year. Darnell Nurse has ascended to the top pairing, and you could get away with Adam Larsson there too if you had a really solid second pairing. Andrej Sekera and Matt Benning do not that pair make. Kris Russell is still watching the puck all the time on the third with KLEFBOM KLEFBOM YOU’RE MY KLEFBOM.
For the Hawks, Anton Forsberg will put a pause on the Glass Jeff Experience for a day, and the Hawks really need him to resign that to a footnote on this season. Forsberg has had his moments both ways, but he needs to grab the brass ring with Corey Crawford still in the land of wind and ghosts. There was no other word on lineup changes today, but you could see Jan Rutta come back in because he isn’t doing anyone any good in the pressbox. Then again, that’s the story for Michal Kempny and you know how that goes.
The Stars got their ass rubbed in the moonshine yesterday in Dallas, and Cam And Magic Talbot was pulled early in the 2nd. Whether he turns around or Chicago Rat Hockey Ragdoll Al Montoya gets the start, the Hawks are playing a severely wounded and shaken team here. The Oilers are basically looking for an excuse to down tools, and the Hawks have basically run out of time to get their ass in gear. The game against the Rangers would see this outfit off. A start like Friday’s will give them life. So the choice is simple.
Game #41 Preview
We make a lot of fun of Peter Chiarelli here… so let’s do it some more! One aspect of building a team these days that seems to get overlooked is a backup goalie. Teams really need to have one that they can trust with 20-25 starts, or get them out of a stretch if a starter were to get hurt, because the days of goalies being able to carry 75 starts and then four rounds of playoff wins are behind us. Quite simply, teams need to find a backup goalie who can “take the ball.”
The Oilers have ignored this, and now may have something of a multi-year problem on their hands. Unless the acquisition of Al “Some Guy In Bensenville Beat Him Like A Rented Goalie At Rat” Montoya works out gangbusters.
Cam Talbot started 73 games last year. And he was pretty good, with a .927 at evens and a .919 overall. Certainly better than the Oilers have gotten in net for a long time. But those 73 starts clearly took a toll, as Talbot’s SV% has dropped to .905 this year and .922 at evens, with his shorthanded mark falling off a cliff that fell off another cliff, from .874 last year to .800 this year.
It’s not a new phenomena, and some goalies have been able to handle that kind of workload for a few years. Talbot’s 73 starts were the 14th highest total in the past 10 years. The most were Martin Brodeur’s matching 77 starts in ’07-’08 and then ’09-’10. In the middle of those, Brodeur got hurt and missed 40 games, and he never approached a .920 SV% again. Then again, Brodeur was already in his mid-30s at this point, where Talbot is only 30 now.
Evgeni Nabokov started 71 games in ’09-’10 for the Sharks at 34 and was never the same. Ryan Miller made 76 appearances at 24 and was able to have excellent seasons after, but never made more than 69 appearances again after that. Mikka Kiprusoff made more than 70 appearances for the first time at age 29, much like Talbot, and again at 30, and then was terrible for two seasons before regaining form at 33, all while making 70+ appearances. Marty Turco made his first 70+ appearance season at 28, and then was awful the next season before rebounding for a couple more. Cam Ward made his only 70+ appearance season in 2011, and he’s never been the same.
Jonas Hiller, much like Talbot, took a while to wrestle a full-time starting gig of his own. He got it in ’11-’12 with the Ducks, made 73 starts at 29. He never started more than 50 games again and had only one more season of an above-average save-percentage after that. On the other side, Braden Holtby made 73 appearances three seasons ago, and then won a Vezina the next season. Jonathan Quick made 70+ appearances in 2015 at 29, missed all of last year, and is now once again have a plus-season.
So it goes both ways, but clearly handing someone around 30 that many starts when they haven’t consistently done it comes with great risk. And it’s just not something Cup-winners have done of late. Matt Murray played 49 games last year, and the year before that was a late-season call-up. Corey Crawford has never started more than 60 games. Jonathan Quick played 49 and 69 games in the Kings’ two Cup years. Tim Thomas played 57 games. Antti Niemi didn’t even become the starter until March. Marc-Andre Fleury made 57 starts.
The Oilers almost certainly don’t have to worry about this this year, as getting into the playoffs is going to be a minor miracle. But this is clearly something they’re going to need to figure out for next year.
Game #41 Preview
BaggedMilk is one of the freaks, very cold freaks, at OilersNation.com. Follow him on Twitter @SBMBaggedMilk. We asked him the same questions as we asked Scott Lewis last week.
Let’s start with something nice and simple. Why do the Oilers blow chunks?
How much time do you have? The biggest problem (and it’s not close) is that their special teams are a complete and utter disaster. Their PK is on pace to be historically bad, and their power play would be about as effective if they all laid down on the ice and cried for two minutes. Neither of those things make any sense either because their special teams were decent last year, but that’s where we’re at. Happy day.
It seems like the Oilers are finally letting Draisaitl play center full-time. How do they solve their winger crisis?
Find a better GM that actually knows what he’s doing in terms of evaluating NHL talent? Can I say that? I mean, the guy traded away virtually all of the scoring wingers on the roster to lay down bets on unproven players, so I don’t know how that problem can be rectified if Chiarelli is going to continuously shoot himself in the foot. The dude seems to love making his own job harder and the idea of him actually fixing a problem without creating another is almost a pipe dream.
What dumbass(es) are they going to end up trading Nugent-Hopkins for?
How dare you even put that out into the universe!? Shame on you. He’s just a child. But seriously, though, I’ve been calling the hopefully-never-gonna-but-prob
Is Darnell Nurse closer to being the new Chris Pronger that we’ve always hoped he’d be?
Whoa, whoa, pump the breaks there, big fella. I’m a big Nurse guy too but I think that he’s still a few trips around the sun away from being anywhere close to Chris Pronger’s ballpark. That said, the guy has made some huge steps forward with his game, this season. He’s defending well, moves the puck effectively, and has played some big minutes. If he can keep progressing then the Oilers could have something special there, but they have to make sure to have some patience with him. Right now, he’s able to handle the tough minutes with no real pressure but if the Oilers dump a truckload of expectations on him then he could be the next Justin Schultz that crumbles under the pressure here only to flourish somewhere else. I have high hopes for Darnell Nurse, but it’s also going to take some time to get there.
The Oilers are eight points out of a playoff spot? Could they save themselves?
I’d donate a nut to the cause if meant the Oilers could make up those extra points. The honest answer is that I have no idea. There are games when the Oilers look like world beaters and others when they look like a team that should be relegated. When the Oilers are on their game, they can be very good. When they’re not, then we all pray that Connor can save us. So can they make the playoffs? Yes, they can. The real question is whether or not they can keep their heads out of their asses consistently enough to make that happen.
Game #41 Preview
We here at FFUD Headquarters are a progressive bunch, or at least we’d like to think so. We think most traditions should be looked at if not outright eliminated. Just because you’ve always done something one way is not a reason to keep doing it if there’s a better way. Especially in hockey, where everything is grounded in Canadian backwoods mythology.
So we’re all for player numbers being more than just 1-35. But the Oilers have way too many fucking stupid numbers.
Look at these things. #91? Who the fuck are you, Drake Caggiula? You don’t get an identifying number. If you’re going above 80, you better know what the fuck you’re doing. 93? No wonder Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is overrated. His number doesn’t make any sense.
97? Yes, you may be the best player in the league Run CMD, but do you really want to wear the number that Jeremy Roenick wore when he got fat and shitty? 98? Even football players who wear 98 tend to be terrible, Jesse Puljujarvi. That’s a dumb hockey number that takes up too much space.
58? Only middle relievers wear 58, Anton Slepyshev! And who are you, anyway?
Yohan Auvitu, you do not get to wear #81. #81 is sleek and cool and intimidating. Marian Hossa gets to wear that. Tim Brown gets to wear that. Night Train Lane gets to wear that. You do not, whoever you are.
EIGHTY-THREE?! That’s stupid and clunky and so are you Matt Benning. You’re not Flipper Anderson! You’re not Willie Gault! Fuck you!
Brandon Davidson you don’t get #88. You have to be someone we can pick out of a lineup, sometimes literally, to wear that. Kiss our ass and call it a love story!
This is not like the Canadiens, where they have retired so many numbers that current players have to pick dumb numbers. Only seven have retired their numbers, and for some reason Glenn Anderson is one of them. There’s plenty to go around. RNH you wear #18 now. The rest of you… who cares? McDavid you wear 10. Messi wears 10. Great players wear 10. 97 looks silly.
Let Milan Lucic wear a stupid number, because he’s stupid. Put 57 on Patrick Maroon to match his clumsiness and uselessness. This has gone on long enough.
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All stats at even-strength except where noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #41 Preview
Courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDB.com
Game #41 Preview
