Baseball

Series Previews – Tigers vs. Sox, Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: Oh, You Again?

By Sam Fels 1657 0

You’ll have to excuse me a bit, and I will not make this a habit. But with both teams in town playing the same teams they played last weekend, there isn’t that much to discuss. So we’ll just combine these into one preview, and you’ll give me a pass, and we’ll all be very happy. Besides, how much do you really want to read about the Detroit Tigers? Exactly.

First, the series happening locally:

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RECORDS: Tigers 12-12   White Sox 9-14

GAMETIMES: 7:10 Friday, 6:10 Saturday, 1:10 Sunday

TV: NBCSN Friday and Sunday, WGN Saturday

SONS OF SPARKY: Bless You Boys

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Daniel Norris vs. Carlos Rodon

Ryan Carpenter vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Matthew Boyd vs. Manny Banuelos

PROBABLE TIGERS LINEUP

Jeimer Candelario – 3B

Nicholas Castellanos – RF

Miguel Cabrera – 1B

Niko Goodrum – LF

Brandon Dixon – DH

Ronny Rodriguez – SS

Gordon Beckham – 2B

Greyson Greiner – C

JaCoby Jones – CF

 

PROBABLE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Tim Anderson – SS

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Yonder Alonso – DH

Jose Rondon – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

 

Who doesn’t love more Tigers? Then again, this didn’t go so well for the White Sox in downtown Detroit (then again, when does it?). The Sox were awfully charitable to Daniel Norris last Sunday, where he tossed five shutout innings for his first win in over a year. There’s being nice and there’s being a doormat.

The Tigers took both halves of a doubleheader in Fenway after dealing with the Sox, but then lost the next two games to the still-trying-to-care Red Sox. Because of that DH, they’ll be calling up Carpenter to take a spot start on Saturday to keep Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull on their normal rest. The Tigers offense is starting to sputter out, with Castellanos hitting .200 over the last week and JaCoby Jones hitting .091. Josh Harrison has been hot over the past seven days though, along with Brandon Dixon.

For the Sox, Rodon gets to try and add to his excellent start to the season, with only one bad start in five and even that was only four earned runs. He held these Tigers to just one run over six last time out, and maybe just maybe is starting to look like something. The hope is that Reynaldo Lopez has turned a corner as well, as his last two starts have seen him surrender three runs in 12 innings while striking out 13 and walking two. Certainly an upgrade over how the season started for him.

Eloy Jimenez returns from bereavement leave tonight, he missed the Baltimore series. Oh, and it’s supposed to snow tomorrow, which seems just about perfect for a Sox-Tigers series, doesn’t it?

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RECORDS: Cubs 12-11   Diamondbacks 15-11

GAMETIMES: Friday 8:40, Saturday 7:10, Sunday 3:10

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC Saturday, WGN Sunday

UNPAINTED HUFFHINES: AZ Snakepit

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Robbie Ray

Yu Darvish vs. Zack Godley

Jose Quintan vs. Luke Weaver

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Albert Almora – CF

Kris Bryant – LF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

David Bote – 3B

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Jason Heyward – RF

 

PROBABLE DIAMONDBACKS LINEUP

Jarred Dyson – CF

Eduardo Escobar – 3B

David Peralta – LF

Adam Jones – RF

Christian Walker – 1B

Ketel Marte – 2B

Nick Ahmed – SS

Carson Kelly – C

Meanwhile, the Cubs head out on a very convenient trip to Arizona followed by a short jaunt the width of the nation to Seattle before settling in St. Louis next week. They’ll catch a Diamondbacks team that swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh after exiting Chicago, which sent the Pirates away from the top spot of the Central and handed it to West East St. Louis. They gave up all of seven runs over four games, so the staff is rolling.

The Cubs will catch a break in missing Greinke this time around as they didn’t have an answer for him last Saturday. Godley is one they didn’t see last week, and much like Robbie Ray the key to him is just waiting him out. He’s walking nearly five hitters per nine innings, though is having terrible luck with an abundance of runners getting all the way around the bases. The Cubs will also get introduced to Luke Weaver, whom they missed last week. Weaver has been dominant so far this season, getting five Ks for every walk and 50% ground-balls. Weaver has a wicked change that he pairs with a plus-fastball and cutter, and was the centerpiece of the Goldschmidt deal. So get to Ray and Godley before having to deal with that shit.

The D-Backs offense went to town on the Bucs, putting up a 12- and 11-spot in that series. Everyone aside from Ahmed comes in hot to this one, and whatever they call that thing with the pool in Phoenix these days has generally been a hitter’s paradise. Gotta keep it rolling.

 

 

Everything Else

You Were So In, With The Out Crowd – Round 2 Previews: Avalanche vs. Sharks

By Sam Fels 1649 0

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SCHEDULE

Game 1 in San Jose – Tonight, 9pm

Game 2 in San Jose – Sunday, 6:30

Game 3 in Denver – Tuesday, 9pm

Game 4 in Denver – Thursday, 9pm

This is where the Sharks are supposed to be, just not how they’re supposed to be here. It took a miracle, they somehow overcame Martin Jones, the NHL’s favorite pet, and various injuries. Do they have anything left? The Avs are here because they have the player who might be playing the best hockey in the world right now, and that their goalie was also as good as anyone. The Sharks benefitted from Marc-Andre Fleury rediscovering his 2010-2013 form. They won’t get such benefits here. Can they overcome a good goalie with less than their full compliment of scorers?

Goalies: While MacKinnon stole all the headlines, along with Mikko Rantanen, Phillip Grubauer was becoming what the Avs thought they were getting when they traded for him in the summer. He put up a .939 against the Flames, who don’t lack for snipers. He only had to work hard a couple times, but giving up 10 goals in five games is a football in the groin. Grubauer has been galactic since February 1st, and it should probably be a given at this point that he’s going to be good.

What to make of Martin Jones. Swinging wildly between really good and slapstick comedy with almost no in-between against Vegas, Jones looked to have tossed away all that the Sharks are with that poor goal from Pacioretty in the 3rd period of Game 7. The Knights’ bed-wetting saw that wasn’t the case, but it wasn’t the stirring performance the Sharks would hope they can build on. He was excellent in Games 5 and 6 when he had to be, but the Sharks can’t have any idea what they’re getting. And they’ll be seeing MacK and Rantanen, who are better scorers than anything the Knights cough up, despite what they tell you.

Defense: The Avs got a boost from the addition of Cale Makar, but this is still a teenager playing his fourth game ever. They were much better than you would have guessed against the Flames, who kept falling apart in front of them. Tyson Barrie was everywhere, and they didn’t pay for having Zadorov and Nemeth on the team. I still won’t buy Ian Cole or Erik Johnson, or Zadorov and Nemeth, but they’re here. There’s more depth they have to deal with from San Jose than Calgary, and if anyone is going to expose them, it’s the Sharks.

The Sharks would have a bigger advantage if Erik Karlsson‘s groin didn’t sound like trying to pull the rack out of an oven that’s never been cleaned right now. He’s moving maybe at 60% of his usual grace, and that’s a problem. Still, it was enough to barely outlast the speed of the Knights, and the Avs aren’t any faster. Brent Burns is a disaster waiting to happen at any moment, But that’s why you have Marc-Edouard Vlasic around. Peter DeBoer finally figured out that Brenden Dillon blows, and was actually playing Joakim Ryan in OT of Game 7. That should continue, but won’t because DeBoer has his idiotic tendencies. Again, they got through the Knights, and here they really only have one line to deal with.

Forwards: This is easy. The Avs have one line, and probably the best line left in the West, and it was more than enough to kick the Flames’ dick into the dirt. Nathan MacKinnon isn’t going to be stopped, and he’ll bring Rantanen and ThreeYaksAndADog with him. But beyond that, you can have it. Yes, they were enough against the Flames, but Colin Wilson and J.T. Compher and Matt Nieto will return to their own level. There’s a collection of nice players under the top line, but no game-breakers here. The top line just might be enough, though.

The Sharks would have a big advantage here if Joe Pavelski was going to play, and we have no idea if he will. Without him, Logan Couture lacks wingers. Sure, there’s still Hertl, Kane, Thornton, Meier, and Nyquist and a few competent bottom-sixers. They’re still deeper than the Avs without Pavelski, but that gap is monumental with him. I think it’s doubtful he shows up, but this being hockey, who can say for sure?

Prediction: Tough one. The Sharks are much deeper than the Flames, and won’t have their top center just completely go Copperfield on them like Sean Monahan did. They should, should, expose the middle and bottom pairing of the Avs, which even with Makar isn’t up to this. And with Pavelski, I’d be much more assured that happens. But Grubauer over Jones makes up for that, or most of it. The Sharks might want a rest. They won’t get one. But they’re just a better team, especially if they get a Pavelski return.

Sharks in 7. 

Everything Else

You Were So In, With The Out Crowd – Round 2 Preview: Hurricanes vs. Islanders

By Sam Fels 1498 0

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SCHEDULE

Game 1 in Brooklyn – Tonight, 6pm

Game 2 in Brooklyn – Sunday, 2pm

Game 3 in Raleigh – Wednesday, 6pm

Game 4 in Raleigh – Friday, 6pm

Well this wasn’t the matchup you saw coming. For the first time since 2015, the Metro Division Final won’t be contested by the Penguins and Capitals. And since the NHL went to this format in 2014, this is the first time that neither the Caps or Penguins will appear. Which is really quite something when you think about it. For comparison’s sake, EVERY team in the Central has appeared in the second round since this format came into being (technically the Avs are in the Pacific and never the Central but let’s just go with it). So the national audience may not be familiar with these teams, but there’s a lot to get through here.

Goalies: This is a clear advantage for the Islanders, and when you have a big advantage in net in the playoffs, sometimes that’s enough. Mrazek was barely ok against the Caps, with a .899 SV%. And that’s with giving up only three goals in the three home games the Canes had. The Isles don’t come with near the firepower the Capitals do, which will help Mrazek, but you would be shocked if he wins this for Carolina. He’s most likely going to be just fine, and the margins in this one are going to be so tight that fine may or may not be enough. The Isles can’t get him moving like the Caps did, they don’t have the skill or the interest. So maybe that helps just enough?

Meanwhile, Robin Lehner was throwing a .956 at the Penguins, and really not having to work all that hard to do it. He only saw an absurd number of shots in Game 1, and that was an overtime game, and Trotz teams keep him protected. But he might not even need the protection, such is the form he’s in. The last three game saw him give up three goals on 92 shots. That’s a .968. So even if the Canes might actually be better equipped to get through the Trotz minefield, getting past Lehner is going to take more than a smile.

Defense: While the Capitals might make fun of Dougie Hamilton, and he wasn’t particularly good against the Caps, the rest of the defense of the Canes was dominant. Justin Faulk and Jaccob Slavin carried a 58+% possession rate and just about the same in expected goals, and probably were the main reason the Canes are where they are. If you can believe it, de Haan and TVR on the third pairing were also very good. The depth here has always been the Canes strength. Also, if Dougie isn’t broken, they have three trap-busters in Hamilton, Faulk, and Pesce, though Pesce and Hamilton tend to play together. Rod Brind’Amour would be wise to get them all on separate pairings so they can always navigate the booby traps Trotz and the Isles set up, but with two pairings that should be 40-45 a night. It’s when TVR thinks he’s Paul Coffey that they’ll run into problems. If you were to design a defense to deal with a Trotz team, this is it.

You would be hard-pressed to pick the Isles defense out of a police lineup, but they’re well sheltered by they system and forwards. If the Canes can somehow open this up more than the Pens did, they Isles are in trouble. Nick Leddy has been iffy all season, and the Isles don’t have a proven puck-mover beyond that. But Trotz teams don’t get opened up on. They’re well-drilled and they do what they do, it’s just not terribly exciting.

Forwards: Of all the four second-round series, this one has by far the least amount of star power up front with either team. Sebastien Aho is wonderful, and so are Mathew Barzal and Josh Bailey, but they don’t move the needle much. And all of them might be the best second-line players in the league. The Islanders aren’t asked to do much other than work hard and be on the right side of the puck and find the goals when they present themselves. The Canes grunted through and got just enough goals throughout the lineup.

The Canes forwards will depend on their defense getting through the muck of the Isles in the neutral zone. If they do that, there’s probably just enough dash with Aho, Our Special Boy, Nino Neiderreiter, and Justin Williams (and if Svechnikov returns), and enough graft with Foegele, Staal, Martinook, and one or two others. But that’s a big if. You’d feel more confident of them busting through here with just a touch more life on the front end.

The Isles can match a top six, maybe even the whole corps. They just don’t do the same things. This is basically a push. If the Canes get as loose defensively as they were at times against the Caps, Bailey and Barzal and Co. aren’t as lethal but they can make them pay. And we know the Isles won’t be loose.

Prediction: This one’s hard to call. I feel like the Canes are built to deal with this, I just wonder if they can do so at the first time of asking and with this forward group. And the Isles will be no softer than the Caps were, and maybe even smarter about it instead of running around like kindergarten recess. It’s not going to be pretty. The Isles have the edge in net. Feels like this one goes the distance too, and I’ll decide to punish the Isles for playing this in Brooklyn instead of Nassau.

Canes in 7. 

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy

By Rose Rankin 1832 0

What to make of our Large Irish Son? In some ways he was the Hawks’ best defenseman this year and basically was the only one trusted with the dungeon shifts (yes he had Dahlstrom with him, but Dahlstrom was only there because Murphy was with him). On the other hand, if you’re the best out of a piss-poor group that features the likes of Slater Koekkoek and Brandon fucking Manning for large portions of the season, what does that really say about you? We’ve tried before to parse out who Connor Murphy really is, and we’re nothing if not stubbornly repetitive around here! What’s that saying about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting a different result? Let’s just get to it:

52 GP – 5 G – 8 A – 13 P

48.6 CF% – 29.8 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt

Connor Murphy was not terrible. I realize that doesn’t seem like the most ringing endorsement, but again we’re evaluating a defense among the dregs of the league. Murphy’s numbers won’t blow your skirt up (at least not mine, anyway), but he and Carl Dahlstrom acted as the closest thing to a shutdown pairing the Hawks could muster. He took 61% of his starts in the defensive zone, so while his possession numbers may seem disappointing, we have to keep in mind where he was going to work most shifts. Among all defensemen with a minimum 600 minutes, Murphy is fifth for fewest offensive zone starts (35.2% at 5v5), so that’s gotta count for something.

When it came to the eye test, Murphy generally passed. We had Gustav Forsling constantly out of position or just skating in circles somewhere, we had Nachos just falling down, whereas Murphy was typically where he needed to be and at the very least was upright (this is what we’re going with, folks). He had a habit of taking dumb penalties, but again if you consider how much he played in his own end, they’re a little less maddening.

And, his xGA ws 37.2 at 5-on-5, ranking him 70th in, again, defensemen with at least 600 minutes played. That may sound shitty, but there are literally 120 guys with a higher expected goals against (oh, and guess who are the second- and third-worst on that list? Duncan Keith and Erik Gustafsson, and they certainly weren’t taking as many defensive zone shifts).

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

OK, so like I said, not terrible. But is Connor Murphy truly good? That’s never been clear and this past season did nothing to help. His takeaways to giveaways was a career-worst 14-to-48, and that was playing about 25 fewer games than his historical average, such as it is in his young career, since he missed the first couple months of the season.

Oh, and about that—the Hawks suddenly announced right before training camp that oh, whoops, Connor Murphy will be out eight weeks with a back injury. As anyone over the age of 29 knows, back problems don’t get better with time, and they’re as unpredictable as they are debilitating. Not what you want to have happen to one of your most valuable defensemen who also happens to be a large human with a lot of muscle weight resting on that spine.

Even if he stays healthy, Murphy still needs a decent partner so we can see if he really can hold his own against top competition or if he’s just been the least bad option the Hawks have had. Carl Dahlstrom is basically the definition of “a guy”—a seventh defenseman or maybe a bottom-pairing bum slayer. Murphy needs someone else, someone more competent and preferable with better speed, and at that point we’ll all be out of caveats and excuses and we can finally figure out what they have in him. That is, if he’s not having back surgery by age 27.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From The Dodgers: That’s How Javy Does It

By Sam Fels 1318 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Dodgers 2

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 7, Dodgers 6

Game 3 Box Score: Dodgers 2, Cubs 1

At the end of last year, and the beginning of this one, the Cubs made a lot of noise that they let games pass last year. Specifically, getaway days/chances to sweep a series were eschewed and taking two of three or series splits were settled for. So I suppose through one prism, this is one of those games the Cubs couldn’t bring home last year and didn’t this year. I think it’s a load of shit when a team wins 95 games but here we are. Also, the Dodgers are really good and it’s somewhat unfair that they can just move Ross Stripling to the pen to accommodate the cares-so-much Rich Hill. And taking two of three from them after they’d paddled the Brewers ass red is almost certainly something to feel gratified about. Let’s do the thing.

The Two Obs

-Perhaps the most exciting thing of the series was Jose Quintana adding a third straight dominating start to the previous two. Yes, the Dodgers are not as effective against lefties but that doesn’t mean they’re helpless. Q’s first two get-healthy outings were against Miami and on a frigid day against Anaheim without Trout, so this was a higher-level test. And he clearly passed it. he’s not throwing that change-up a ton but he’s throwing it enough to be accounted for and he’s throwing it effectively enough to get whiffs and off-balance swings. He’s allowing way less contact and striking out nearly a third of the hitters he’s seen so far. While you could count on Q to be solid this year, him taking a star-turn would definitely be a bonus.

-The other two lefties sent to keep the Dodgers’ doomsday device from going off did their jobs as well. Lester looked good in his return, giving up a solitary run. Hamels somehow dodged six walks to keep the Cubs in Javy-range. The rotation is shaping up better than we hoped, which makes this a very good team despite the assholes and dipshits that come out of the pen.

-I don’t understand how anyone hits Walker Buehler, his stuff is that good. And yet something happens to pitchers when Javy is at the plate. They have to make a breaking pitch perfect, hang it, and this is what you get. Someday some pitching coach is going to tell his guys to throw nothing but fastballs at his letters and above. Then again, that’s what Joe Kelly tried to do in the 8th today and Javy somehow got on top of a neck-high fastball to bang it off the wall.

-Javy’s decision to try and steal in the first with Descalso up and two outs was a little iffy, as Descalso has been nails in leverage situations. But these are the things you just excuse.

-I was curious at Joe Sheehan’s Albert Almora/Kyle Schwarber treatise on Twitter yesterday. I haven’t totally given up on AA but I can see that landmark from where I am. Then he homers off Kenley Jansen. I wouldn’t be opposed to getting him more ABs at the expense of Ben Zobrist right now, who can’t seem to do anything but give you weak grounders up the middle. That doesn’t mean Zoby 18 won’t have a role to play later in the year. We know he will, but this is probably AA’s pivot year and we aren’t going to get answers without at least a third of the season as a starter. The offense is clicking with Zobrist and Schwarber as black holes, it can survive Almora taking one of their spots.

-Fire Randy Rosario into the sun. I keep saying it, but he’s never been good, his stuff isn’t interesting, and now he can’t get it over the plate. The Cubs probably have to redo their entire left side of the pen, although I’ll give Kyle Ryan a touch more leash. Just don’t make me go through that again.

–Brad Brach was hitting 94 today, which has to be the hardest he’s thrown all season. If that continues, I have slightly more patience for him. Just not much.

Onwards…

 

Everything Else

You Were So In, With The Out Crowd – Round 2 Previews: Stars vs. Blues

By Sam Fels 1623 0

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SCHEDULE

Game 1 in St. Louis – Tonight, 8:30

Game 2 in St. Louis – Saturday, 2pm

Game 3 in Dallas – Monday, 7pm

Game 4 in Dallas – Wednesday, 8:30

I said it on the podcast, but I’ll say it again. If you have literally anything else to do, do not watch this series. The Stars are boring as fuck, and on purpose because it’s how they hang, and the Blues don’t have the speed the Predators do and that series was its own energy vampire. I’ll be shocked if any team gets to four goals in any game this series. Cue the 5-4 series opener tonight, of course. Let’s do this together.

Goalies: Perhaps the biggest reason this is going to be a tough watch. Ben Bishop threw a .945 at the Preds and sent them home, including a couple 40+ save outings. He’s a Vezina finalist for multiple times for a reason, and carries a career .930 in the playoffs. He also has the added spice of being from West East St. Louis, and playing against a team that gave up on him long ago (I watched Viktor Stalberg light him up in a Presidents’ Day matinee live in St. Louis, once, and believe me everyone hated him there).

On the other side, Jordan Binnington wasn’t that great against the Jets. It was enough, but a .908 probably isn’t going to get it done against the complete opposite of Winnipeg, a team that’s only interested in playing defense. He was kind of all over the map, with three really good games, two bad ones, and a meh one that didn’t matter because the Jets had already quit. He’s unlikely to see a ton of shots here because that’s just not what the Stars do, but there will come a game or two where he’s probably going to have to make a lot of saves and rob the likes of Benn and Seguin on big chances. Let’s call us skeptical still that he’s ready to do that. Edge here for the Stars.

Defense: On the sheets, the Stars are better off here. Somehow a child shall lead them, as it was Miro Heiskanen that led them in ice-time against the Predators. Klingberg and Lindell were actually marvelous against Nashville’s top line, and that’s at least equivalent to O’Reilly-Schenn-Tarasenko. No matter how many draws ROR wins and the broadcast won’t shut up about. Still, Roman Polak is here and playing significant minutes and when that happens calamity is never too far under the surface. Same goes for Ben Lovejoy. Still, with Heiskanen and Klingberg, that’s two better puck-movers than anything the Jets could boast, including the very disinterested and bloated Dustin Byfuglien.

We’ll never buy into the Blues blue line. Alex Pietrangelo is overrated. Colton Parayko was turned into sawdust and vomit by Mark Scheifele. Jabe O’Meester is a zombie that isn’t particularly interested in eating brains. Vinnie Dunn might be something one day, but not yet. Still, they turned back a deeper crop of forwards than the Stars can dream of. The task will be awfully different here, as the Stars are going to dare them to carry or pass their way through a barbed-wire filled neutral zone, and there’s no one on the Blues who can do that. And if they force it and turn the puck over more, that’s what the Stars are feeding on right now.

Forwards: Same drill as with a lot of teams now. The Stars are one line. It’s a hell of a line, but that’s it. There were flickers of light of a second line between Hobbit Zuccarello, Roope Hintz, and Jason Dickinson, and if that can continue they’re on to something. But the top line has to score and it has to score a lot. Good thing the Blues don’t really have a shutdown pairing.

The Blues will tell you they have depth. And they do if Jaden Schwartz builds off his series-clinching hat-trick. We’ve already talked about the top line, they seem to believe pretty heavily in Oskar Sundqvist (whatever), and they have foot soldiers like Maroon and Thomas and Perron who might chip in a big goal or two. Overall, the Blues do have a deeper set here. They just don’t have the top.

Prediction: Again, this will be cruel and unusual. But the Blues simply are not built to bust through a trap consistently. And even if they do, it’s a much better goalie waiting playing better. And the Stars have just more of a top end. Because of how awful this will be to watch, you know it’s going the route. Which screams a Bishop shutout on the road.

Stars in 7. 

Everything Else

You Were So In With The Out Crowd – 2nd Round Preview: Blue Jackets vs. Bruins

By Sam Fels 1486 0

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SCHEDULE

Game 1 in Boston – Tonight, 6pm

Game 2 in Boston – Saturday, 7pm

Game 3 in Columbus – Tuesday, 6pm

Game 4  in Columbus – Thursday, 6:30

This wasn’t how it was supposed to go. And the Jackets aren’t even in this division! We’re not supposed to be here today! Hockey is weird and stupid but that’s kind of why we’re here. For the first time in their history, the Jackets will play games in May. Maybe just one, but it’ll happen. Can they keep the miracle run going? Let’s find out.

Goalies: Are four games enough to declare a former playoff-barfer suddenly a dynamo? That’s the question you’ll have to ask about Sergei Bobrovsky. He was very good against Tampa, after a so-so regular season, though thanks to the Jackets forecheck he didn’t have to do that much. Which probably should have been the plan all along. He never faced 35 shots in a game, and really in only Games 1 and 4 did he face what you would call anything close to an abundance of good chances. Those were the games he gave up three goals, so really this might depend more on what the Jackets make Bob do than what he does. The Bruins shouldn’t be that hard to hold to a reasonable amount of shots and chances, except for that one line. But that one line is an expert at moving the puck around quickly, which is where Bob’s athleticism kicks in. But he’ll have to toe that line of athleticism and losing his positioning. Basically, we don’t know shit here.

Amongst the Toronto wailing is that Tuukka Rask was marvelous against the Leafs, with a .928 over seven games. Rask’s playoff performance have become basically metronomic at this point, almost always in the mid-.920s if not better. He’s got a career .928 in the postseason. He may not steal a series, but he’s as sure a bet as there is left to not lose it, and the Jackets are going to have to work a hell of a lot harder here than they did against the very jumpy Vasilevskiy.

Defense: This comes down to how tinker-y and match-y up-y John Tortorella wants to get. The first round acted as a coming out party for Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, racking up nine points combined in four games. However, possession-wise, that pairing got kicked around a bit and not by the Lightning’s top line either. The natural inclination is to think that they’ll take on Bergeron’s line. Judging by what happened last round, that’s probably not the case. Strangely, it was David Savard and Scott Harrington who did the heavy lifting, and at least held their own. But if you trust those two against arguably the best line in hockey that is also playoff-proven, you go right ahead. I’ll be over here. Maybe it’s whether or not Jones and Werenski can do enough on the power play and against lesser and whether that cancels out Bergeron and Marchard against Savard and Harrington. I don’t know what a Dean Kukan is and I don’t care.

For Boston, they already know the plan here. The Jackets are going to do the same thing they did against Tampa, which is push their trap up the ice, try to get their forwards on the Bs defensemen as quickly as possible and bring da ruckus. The Lightning’s defense is pretty slow beyond Hedman, especially when Sergachev was having a nightmare. You’d think this would be a problem for Zdeno Chara and the tennis balls on the bottom of his skates, and maybe it will be. It just rarely seems to be. In theory this is why you have Moonface McAvoy and Torey Krug, as they can skate themselves out of trouble. But they also blow chunks in their own zone. Then again, they just survived a more skilled and better forward crop in the last round. Basically, we don’t know shit here.

Forwards: The Jackets forwards certainly were buzzing against Tampa, with that forecheck getting them the puck back below the circles and only requiring a pass or two for chances and goals. That’s clearly the plan here, and in transition and with things scramble-y that’s when Atkinson and Panarin and Anderson are lethal. You can’t catch back up to them and how quickly they can start moving the puck around. If the Bruins can keep things stable, the Jackets lack a little shot-creation, especially if Panarin isn’t in the mood to do it. There are grunts here who can scrum in a goal or two, but you can’t beat the Bruins if your top isn’t your top (not a sex joke).

The Bruins are one line and David Krejci. And yet that’s enough for 100+ point seasons and at least a round win. The Bs got contributions from Charlie Coyle and Joakim Nordstrom and the like, but those aren’t the things you can count on. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, but it’s (Gorilla Monsoon voice) highly unlikely that Marchand and Bergeron and Pastrnak aren’t going to produce. And it’s hard to see a way that the Jackets stop them from doing that, even if they try and cut it off at the source by harassing the Boston D before they can get the puck up to them.

Prediction: This isn’t going to be easy for the Bruins, and the argument that the Jackets just dispatched a better team before we had time to fart into the couch is always lingering there. And as we’ve stressed a ton, it’s not like the Lightning didn’t have playoff pedigree. Their recent pedigree is actually better than the Bs. But I don’t trust Bob yet, and Rask is pretty much a rock. And that feels like it’ll be the biggest difference here. It’s just going to take a while.

Bruins in 6.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing At Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Duncan Keith

By Rose Rankin 2087 0

It’s time now to move to reviewing the defense…I know, I know, I don’t want to remember either…

I honestly don’t know if Duncan Keith has morphed into a crotchety old man or a petulant toddler. Come to think of it, there’s a lot of similarities between the two so maybe either metaphor applies. Regardless, if there is one thing we learned about Duncan Keith it’s that when he doesn’t give a fuck he DOESN’T GIVE A FUCK. He should adjust his game to account for his decreasing speed as the game itself gets faster? DOESN’T GIVE A FUCK. He should make a concerted effort in a new defensive scheme that may not be totally in his wheelhouse but that’s how the coach wants it? DOESN’T GIVE A FUCK. Duncan Keith will do whatever he damn well pleases no matter how many bad turnovers it leads to. Let’s get to it:

28 GP – 6 G – 34 A – 40 P

49.7 CF% –46.4 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes with a Free Frogurt

Duncan Keith is not terrible and he wasn’t even close to being the worst defenseman on this team, let’s just get that out there right now. Did you even realize he had six goals this year? I, for one, did not. Looking up that stat was a surprise to me. But what matters more is that despite all the bullshit Keith managed a 50 CF% at evens (all situations), which isn’t too far off his average the last few years. Notably, that number jumps to a 53.8 CF% when he was paired with Henri Jokiharju, and HarJu’s CF% was actually higher without Keith so while that sounds concerning, i.e., Keith is dragging guys down, it actually suggests a workable way forward for an aging defenseman with a spiky attitude.

Pair Keith with someone faster who can get to the corners in ways he no longer can, and have the elder statesman act as more the free safety. His zone starts were quite sheltered again this year (58 oZS%), so keep that up and the decline can be managed. It’s probably pretty obvious that I think Keith and Jokiharju should be a package deal because I still think it’s awfully stupid to NOT have Jokiharju here when the blue line is so rancid, but even if it’s not HarJu the team can and should position Keith to use what he has left to contribute as best he can. That’s assuming Keith goes along with the plan, which is the real issue.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

Basically the question is not CAN Keith play adequately, it’s IF he will choose to do so. Part of this is of course influenced by what the coach does, and for shits and giggles we’ll stick with it being Coach Cool Youth Pastor since by all indications he’ll be behind the bench for the foreseeable future. If Colliton does dumb shit like pair IDGAF Keith with I-Can’t-Skate-Upright Seabrook, we’re going to have a problem. For comparison, Keith and Nachos has an xGA of 20.8 at evens…that number was 17.2 when Keith was paired with Jokiharju, despite Keith having similar ice time with both. Again, this doesn’t mean that Jokiharju is the answer to everything that ails Keith, but it illustrates the point that Seabrook is still not the answer when it comes to who his partner should be.

Pairing him with Gustafsson shouldn’t really be a viable plan either—Gus just isn’t good enough defensively, so even if you give them all the offensive zone starts possible, the risk of what happens once the puck gets past the offensive blue line is terrifying. Who else is there? Forsling? Bitch please, he needs to be fired into the sun. Dahlstrom? Almost the same. Murphy? Not if Our Large Irish Son is staying with the dungeon shifts, for all the reasons we just described about Keith.

But you know all about the personnel problems…Keith needs someone who can be a complementary partner, we get it. At the end of the day, though, whether he gets a complementary partner or is stuck with the jamokes on this current roster, Keith is going to have to either 1) agree to play Colliton’s man-to-man system, should he choose to stick with it, or 2) at least raise his give-a-shit meter to about 7.5 regardless of what system he (Keith) decides he’s going to play on a given night.

We saw Duncan Keith make more lazy, careless plays this year than I can ever remember—bad turnovers that weren’t lack of skill, but lack of caring what happened. He called out his coach after the Hawks fumbled basically their last chances at squeaking into the playoffs, and while that is part of why we love him, you can see from an organizational standpoint how that’s a problem. Yes, he kinda sorta backtracked and said he wanted to be a part of whatever renaissance the Hawks may be attempting, but it’s hard to know if he really meant that or was just covering his ass with the front office.

What was clear was that Keith didn’t care to make the level of effort that is and will continue to be needed with a defense this crappy. He doesn’t have to become some media-friendly talking head; that’s not who he is or who should try to be. But he will have to contribute night in and night out both to make his remaining skills worthwhile, and hopefully to develop some of the green defensemen the system is so full of right now.

If he can’t or won’t, then the Hawks have to look at trading him while his contract still isn’t a Seabrook-level albatross for another team. And while that may make sense from a business standpoint, it would suck goat balls for the rest of us who want to see him age gracefully because we know, we could never have done any of this without him.

Preview Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia