Hockey

Around these parts, we’re familiar with the concept of a unicorn center–i.e. one that takes the dungeon shifts and yet continually turns the ice over to the good end of things. Not like you’re thinking, Beverly Brewmaster, you weirdo. Marcus Kruger was the backstop to two Cup teams doing it, and David Kampf has taken the torch from him and is currently filling the role in exemplary fashion.

But neither of them, nor really anyone, does it as well as Sean Couturier.

Couturier stuck with the Flyers right out of his draft year, becoming one of the league’s best checking centers as a teenager. He routinely drove centers nuts from the dawn of his NHL career with his high-speed, instinctive game that always had him in the right spots. He was the anchor to that team that beat the Penguins in the playoffs where neither team had a goalie, nearly causing Sidney Crosby to start painting with his own bodily fluids. Jonathan Toews has found Couturier to be a complete pain in the ass in their limited meetings per year. They’re not the only ones.

But Couturier has been more than that of late. When the Flyers lacked a #1 center, or Claude Giroux was better utilized on the wing, Couturier slotted up there the past couple seasons. That led to back-to-back 76-points seasons, while still providing his possession-dominant ways.

Couturier has slotted back down this season, but nothing’s changed. Over the past five seasons, only five centers have had worse zone starts than Couturier. Two of them are now out of hockey in Dominic Moore and Ryan Kesler, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mikael Backlund, and Luke Glendening are the others. None of them have matched Couturier’s Corsi-rating or expected-goals percentage, and no one’s even really close on the latter. You have to get down all the way to find Patrice Bergeron to have a significantly better number than Couturier, and he gets 10% more shift-starts in the offensive zone.

Of course, Couturier didn’t get any Selke consideration until he started putting up those 76-point seasons, because that’s just how these things work as voters really have no idea what they’re looking for when it comes to that award.

Couturier’s $4.3M cap hit per year might be the biggest bargain in the league, considering all the things he can do. If Nolan Patrick is ever able to fill in higher up the lineup (or even healthy), Coots can be the second or third center simply erasing other top centers out of the game. He can be the #1 and score just enough to justify being there. He is the league’s best Swiss-army knife, basically.

So far this year, his line with Oskar Lindblom and Travis Konecny has been the Flyers biggest threat, and that might be the case going forward. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek have crossed into their 30s, and James van Riemsdyk isn’t too far behind. These three kids are right in their prime or just about to be, and the Flyers path forward is that trio making it easier on the older guys as they start to lose their fastball. That appears to be the plan, and the one the Hawks have to watch out for tonight.

 

Hockey

Chris Stewart – Seriously, how does this dunce keep getting work? And how wasn’t he a Flyer before this? An empty vessel of charges and pointless yapping, it’s like he was bred a Flyer. Stewart hasn’t been able to do anything relevant since he somehow spasmed 20 goals for the Blues once upon a time (and any player who has been a Blue and Flyer you know is truly special) but has been able to carve out an NHL career because he hit someone once in training camp. He also looks like he was illustrated onto your screen separately.

Captain Stairwell – Two points, seven games, $7M please.

Claude Giroux – Since the Hawks were unable to deal with him as a rookie in the ’10 Final, has any player scored more goals that didn’t matter in the least? The Flyers have won two playoff series since and none in the past seven seasons, all with Giroux anchoring the top line. He’s done enough talking and posing over that time, while the team he leads hasn’t done shit. Maybe there’s more to it than just usual orange-clad incompetence?

Football

Welcome back to THE VAULT, the much celebrated weekly history column where I try to remember why I still care about this team in spite of the many heartbreaks they’ve given me. I’m going to spend these next couple weeks while I’m between jobs rewriting Kanye’s magnum opus “808s and Heartbreaks” to make it about the Bears, so look for me in the FFUD “Album of the Week” section crooning over some reverb-drenched synths. My version of “Love Lockdown” is gonna be about Nathan Vasher. Million dollar idea right there.

Potential album titles:
“85 Bears and Tears” (doesn’t rhyme but I’ll make it work)
“Jim Miller is a Homophobic Idiot” (true but not as catchy)
“One Night Stands and Josh Bellamy’s Hands” (there it is)

2003, week 9 of the NFL season. The Bears limped in to this home tilt against the San Diego Chargers at 3-5, and the Chargers somehow hobbled into Soldier Field at 1-7. Bear in mind this Chargers team had Drew Brees at QB and LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield, with noted PED user and future “Crime in Sports” episode subject David Boston lining up outside next to perennial “undersized with a big heart white WR” Tim Dwight. Tim Dwight was always one of those wideouts that announcers described as “a student of the game/a gym rat/sneaky fast” which for some reason are only superlatives given to white wideouts. Whereas receivers who are nonwhite are always considered “freak athletes.” It’s weird.

Casual racial bias aside, the wildest thing about this game is the fact that DREW FUCKING BREES was benched in this game for DOUG FUCKING FLUTIE, who massively outperformed the QB who would go on to define this generation (screw Tom Brady, he’s just the best system QB of all time- Brees is the GOAT). It’s almost a fever dream to think about a Bears team led by Chris Chandler, Anthony Thomas, and David Terrell sticking it to the Chargers with two future Hall of Famers in their backfield so severely that they thought it prudent to bring in Doug Flutie.

The 2003 Bears were, you guessed it, a fucking mess. The QB carousel featured the aforementioned Chris Chandler coming in to start for Kordell Stewart for his 3rd game in a row. The 2003 Bears had hotshot Rex “Sex Cannon” Grossman on the bench as a rookie, which is kind of like having the opportunity to re-watch a movie knowing how the tragedy is going to unfold. They also drafted useless defensive lineman Michael Haynes in that first round. After that nightmare first round, they picked up Charles Tillman in the 2nd and Lance Briggs in the 3rd, which is almost “Sayers-Butkus” levels of draft success. As much as it sucks to see that the Bears could’ve drafted Troy Polamalu instead of Haynes, at least they didn’t pull a Detroit Lions and draft Charles Rogers with the 2nd overall pick, he of the multiple failed drug tests. Fun Charles Rogers fact: three career failed drug tests, four career receiving touchdowns. Trust me, I’m not trying to shit on a dude that would’ve maybe had a chance in the NFL a few years from now, when players are finally allowed to use marijuana to help with pain relief. I feel bad for those players who can’t medicate with something that isn’t a habit-forming painkiller that actually shortens people’s lives.

The Bears went on to hold off the Flutie-led Chargers 20-7, keeping LT to a measly 82 total yards on 16 carries and four catches. Drew Brees went 7-15 for 49 yards and an interception in this game, with his pick lobbed into the hands of Charles Tillman before Peanut was suplexed to the ground by the aforementioned David Boston, who looks like those cat memes where people sketch in preposterous muscles on pics of napping kitties. Tillman also downed a punt at the 1-yard line, which is always a play that gets me going. His downed punt led to a game-sealing interception of Flutie by Jerry Azumah, a regular here in THE VAULT.

Anthony Thomas led the team with 31 carries (!), 111 yards, and two scores. Honestly, as bad as those teams were, it’s refreshing to watch the old highlight videos of the Bears lining up in the I-Formation and running up the middle with success, instead of watching the offense line up in the shotgun and send the smallest player on the roster up the gut on 1st and 10 when the other team has 36 men in the box. David Terrell and Dez White each had seven catches, which would be a career day for most of the players on the 2019 squad. Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, and even my all-time favorite Bears undersized useless WR Ahmad Merritt caught a pass from Chris Chandler. Man, I miss Ahmad Merritt, who didn’t do anything in the NFL but was a BEAST in NFL Europe, catching 6 TDs for the Berlin Thunder. What a weird fucking sentence.

The Bears in 2003 finished 7-9, before finishing 5-11 in 2004 with what is considered one of the worst offenses in NFL history. Welcome to heartbreak.

Baseball

And now the big debate. It’s actually a couple rolled into one. Is Nicholas Castellanos the player he showed for the two months he was a Cub? Is he what came before that? Is he what the final numbers on 2019 with both Detroit and Chicago say? Somewhere in-between? And then you add to those questions whether he should be re-signed or not. It’s a lot to figure out, and that’s before getting into the Cubs’ figment budget questions that they’ve made real.

2019 Stats (DET & CHI)

151 games  664 PAs

.289/.337/.525

27 HR  73 RBI

6.2 BB%  21.5 K%

121 wRC+  .357 wOBA  .883 OPS

-12.6 Defensive Runs Saved   2.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: You could say that Castellanos was THE story for the Cubs last year, at least on the positive side. He came in at the trade deadline and immediately started hitting, and never really stopped. He inarguably brought a jolt to the Cubs, and they were a team that definitely could have used it. Castellanos was certainly more explosive than either Almora or whoever else he actually replaced in the lineup by pushing Heyward to center.

If you were to only look at his numbers with the Cubs in the last two months, he looks like an MVP candidate. .321/.356/.646 for an OPS of 1.002 and an OPS+ of 151. As Castellanos himself pointed out, the more friendly environs of Wrigley made a difference in his home run production, as he hit 16 in the season’s final two months after hitting only 11 in the first four in Detroit. And half of them came at home, so over a full season that projects out to over 40 homers and near 50 for a season. Of course, Castellanos isn’t going to ever match the 32% HR/FB rate he had in August as a Cub. But even the 14% he had in September was higher than anything he did in Detroit last season, and above his career rate.

What Castellanos did do, regardless of where he was playing, is hit the ball damn hard. He had a hard-contact rate over 40% every month of the season, which the Cubs simply don’t have a lot of. Only he and Schwarber eclipsed that mark for the whole year. For comparison’s sake, the Dodgers had nine guys who did. The Astros seven. Maybe the problem isn’t the amount of contact, fellas?

And that’s just about the story with Nic At Nite. There wasn’t that much of a change from the Tigers to the Cubs. He mashed fastballs and sinkers there, and he did so here, and with a slice more luck and a smaller park, the numbers swelled. He’s a good hitter who got hot and he will almost certainly remain a good hitter.

A key aspect to the Castellanos debate is his defense. It was better in ’19 than it was in ’18, and there isn’t nearly as much ground to cover in Wrigley as there is in Comerica, even if you have to deal with the sun and wind and Ryker from Highland Park throwing beers at you. But it still wasn’t good, The optimistic will tell you it was only his second season playing there and the improvement from ’18 to ’19 will only continue. The pessimistic will tell you he looks awkward as fuck out there, his routes are Dali-esque, has next to no range, and he just doesn’t have a feel for it out there and probably belongs in left. Which probably means the truth is somewhere in the middle as always.

Contract: Free Agent

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Oh if it were only so simple. Yes, with no budget constraints-perceived or real or self-imposed or necessary–you’d re-sign Castellanos and have him and Schwarber in the corners to mash and you’d find a better solution in center to cover for their defense and maybe provide some offense and consign Heyward to the 4th outfielder role he’s been hurtling toward for four seasons. But life isn’t that simple.

These days, it’s impossible to know what Castellanos can make on the free agent market. A couple years ago, you’d be sure it was over $20M a year for five years at least. Now three years for between $51M-$54M seems the more likely, and even then who knows what the collusion owners will dictate.

But even at that $17M figure, it’s a tough squeeze for the Cubs. Even with just their arbitration raises as projected, the Cubs end up near $180M in payroll. And that’s if they don’t get to extend anyone with a bigger figure. And it could be more than that. That might leave somewhere between $35M-$40M to play with. But if you and Castellanos half of that, is $17M-$20M enough to get the extra starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need more desperately? It could be but would be a tight squeeze.

On the other side, having Castellanos on the team most certainly can’t hurt and if he’s anything close to the August-September guy, $17M is a bargain. If a third season sees his defense improve…maybe you can get away with it? Can you live with Heyward for a full season in center? Doubtful. Would you trade Schwarber? That’s production you’d have to find again and probably pay premium, either through money or trade, to do so. Isn’t that running in place?

On the plus side here, I don’t think there are any wrong answers. You can sign Castellanos and just say you’re going to bash the shit out of the ball and hope that’s enough to outrun your at-best subpar outfield defense. Or you can let him walk, use that money for the pitching you don’t have, and mitigate not having that offensive production. And maybe with a smart trade you can get some of it back anyway.

Looking at it though, Castellanos hits the ball awfully hard. The Cubs don’t. They’ll have to answer that somehow.

Baseball

As AJ said yesterday, the hopeful and wandering eyes (ewww) of Sox fans are going to turn from Lucas Gioilito to Reynaldo Lopez next year. Is Lopez a candidate for such a turnaround? Let’s get in up to the wrist.

2019 Stats

33 starts  184 innings

10-15

5.38 ERA  5.04 FIP

8.27 K/9   3.18 BB/9  1.46 WHIP

35% GB-rate  69.2 LOB%  14.0% HR/FB

119 ERA-  2.3 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It was something of a strange year for Lopez, as in a lot of ways he had the same exact year as he did in 2018. And in some ways better, except without any of the results or numbers that would agree with that. He struck out slightly more hitters than he did in ’18, he walked slightly less hitters. He got ever so slightly more ground-balls, and considering what the baseball was his hard-contact against was essentially the same. And yet his ERA jumped nearly a run and a half and his FIP almost half a run. What’s going on here?

Some of this is luck. Lopez gave up more homers simply because more of them floated out of the park, which happened to just about everyone this season (at least not named Gerrit Cole). Whereas his fly ball-to-homer ratio previously was under 10%, it rose to over 14% this year. But Lopez didn’t give up hardly any more flies than he did previously, nor was the contact on them any more lively than before. They just ended up in places in various parks that were homers where they didn’t before, which is essentially just kind of random. Lopez wasn’t helped either by a dip in his left-on-base percentage, which is just sequencing. His 69% mark is three to four points below league average, and could just rebound simply because next year. More solo homers instead of them with men on would improve his ERA and such, without him actually doing anything differently.

Still, that’s not all of it. Lopez’s stuff suggests he should strike out more hitters than less than one per inning. And yet he doesn’t. Lopez’s fastball velocity ranked in the top-10 of all starters this year. The guy behind him was Max Scherzer. The guys ahead of him were Marquez, Alcantara, Castillo, Buehler, Wheeler, deGrom, Cole, and Thor. Almost everyone of them have much bigger K numbers than Lopez, and if not that than better success. Why so?

The easy answer is that they have better offspeed and breaking pitches, but that’s only partially true. The thing with Lopez’s fastball is though it’s one of the hardest around, it doesn’t get the whiffs you might think:

With Lopez’s velocity, you want him living at the top and above the zone. But all the other pitchers mentioned get whiff-per-swing rates in those six spots in the 30% range or 40%. Some even 50%, which Lopez has only in one spot and is probably more due to a weird spike than any skill. Maybe hitters just see Lopez’s fastball better than those others’. Maybe he needs some more deception in his delivery, but considering he’s throwing 95-97 regularly he should be blowing that pitch by hitters more often. And he’s not. And that’s a bigger problem because it’s still the pitch he goes to most often when ahead and with two strikes.

Lopez has good breaking stuff, but they don’t seem to come out of the same plane as his fastball. He mostly keeps his fastball up int he zone or above, but his slider breaks from the middle or low in the zone and out. Hitters can pretty much suss out when it’s not up it’s not a fastball, though they still offer and whiff at a decent amount of them. Though hardly a heroic amount. When pitching to lefties, his change still comes out of a lower plane as well. Perhaps using his curve more, which does come out of his hand looking higher in the zone, is the key. Or given how hard he throws, not being afraid to use the middle of the zone more often on the edges, and then the slider and change will look a little different. Clearly the tools are there.

Contract: Team control, arbitration eligible in 2021.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well this is obvious. Lopez will be part of the rotation next year and hopefully for a good long while after that. And seeing as how he’s put up over 180 innings his first two full seasons, his durability will be needed in a season where the Sox don’t know what they’ll get from Carlos Rodon or Michael Kopech in terms of innings. He’s clearly the next project in the Giolito mold, how they can unlock what is clearly a lot in that closet. Feels like a delivery tweak is coming for him too to give him more deception and to make sure that fastball gets on hitters instead of them seeing it the whole way. Lopez will be 26 next year, so there’s still time but there isn’t the oodles of time it might feel like. If they can boost him as they did Giolito next year, then the games might matter in August again.

Hockey

Not that I think Connor Murphy‘s injury will turn out to be a Wally Pip moment, because nothing really ever is. But it does open a window for the Hawks to try and get started on their future. And their future wears #27, at least on the blue line.

I’m sure the Hawks won’t call up Adam Boqvist to take Murphy’s spot. They’ll call up Dennis Gilbert because he’s the loyal foot soldier, and they can play him 12 minutes a night without scrutiny to not do a hell of a lot on the third pairing for three weeks. We’ll get more of Fetch Koekkoek, because he’s the new Rundbland and Stan is going to prove he knows what he’s doing no matter how much closer it brings us to the first instance in history of a goalie breaking his stick over his own d-man’s head on the ice. I know this, you know this.

But last night, as encouraging as it was at times, once again showed the speed deficit the Hawks have when it comes to the best teams in the league. If they red-line and play as if their pubic hair was on fire, they can almost keep up. But you can’t do that for 82 games. You can’t play that hard and that desperate, because you’ll be puddles and goo by February. You need more baseline speed.

And that’s what Boqvist is. And the defense, as strange as it might sound, could absorb him right now. Whatever they do, the clear answer is to move Calvin de Haan up to play with Duncan Keith, as de Haan can mostly emulate the safety net Murphy provides (though without most of the mobility). At the moment, that leaves Seabrook and Maatta together, which is still getting crushed even if Maatta has been better than we thought, and Gustafsson and Fetch for shifts that will have all of us walking funny and carefully to the bathroom.

Maatta and de Haan have definitely stabilized a defense that really had no other direction to go, as well as the Murphy-Keith pairing you just lost. But all it is is just defending. The Hawks don’t get up the ice any better than they did. They still need help with that. The only candidate for that is Boqvist. They need transition.

Pair him with Maatta. Let Seabrook and Gustafsson be on the third pairing, which as ugly as it might sound is better than the alternative. Maatta’s form this season at least allows for the possibility that he can be the free safety for Boqvist’s flaming guitar solos (there’s some mixed metaphors for you). It’s what the Hawks need.

We know thanks to DeBrincat’s bridge contract that the Hawks have basically zeroed in on the next three-four seasons–the length of Daydream Nation’s collective contract. Boqvist’s is already running. No waiting around. Let’s go.

-Which also means keeping Kirby Dach around. Does that mean he’s ready? No, it doesn’t. But I also don’t need too much more than the two games we’ve seen to know that he’s beyond the WHL too. And seeing as how Rockford isn’t an option…

One thing Dach is going to have to do better is get his legs pumping. NHL forwards basically spring for their entire shifts, and so far Dach has gotten caught gliding a little too often. That doesn’t mean he’s a loaf, as it’s probably more to do with him calculating what’s going on around him and then reacting instead of those two things folding seamlessly into each other, which they will. He’s going to have to map things out while moving full speed.

Dach being a bigger guy, it’s always going to look like he’s playing at a slightly slower speed because he’ll cover ground that much easier. His style is just going to look languid even if it’s not. I don’t need his legs to look like Road Runner, but they do need to move a touch more.

Still, the hands and vision and instincts are obvious. And if the Hawks are patient, I can’t see how after 30-40 games he won’t look like he belongs. And 30 games in the NHL have to be more valuable than 60 games in the WHL beating up on children because he’s that much more talented. That won’t really get him to move at higher speeds. So keep him here and get moving on these next three seasons. Let’s go.

Baseball

Are you tired of reading these pieces from me yet? Because I’m awfully sick of writing them. In the past two years I’ve addressed the whitewashing of sexual assault, mansplaining (which for some reason has Sam as the author?? Very meta), and gender-based discrimination and the wage gap. Each of these situations were bad in their own way by highlighting persistent misogyny and distinct cultural issues that we still have in the country (and world), but this Brandon Taubman story really ticks all the boxes—workplace discrimination and undermining women’s basic competency at doing their jobs, the policy of valuing success over human decency, and minimizing the scourge of domestic violence. How could one asshole manage to do so much? Let’s examine:

The Art of the Non-Apology

See, that’s because it’s not just one asshole. Yes, this brouhaha was initially caused by the actions of one asshole, but it was a group of equally obnoxious ones that showed how odious this episode really is. You’ve got Taubman screaming weird, uncomfortable nonsense directly at women, clearly meaning to intimidate them or make them feel awkward. That’s bad enough on its own, but for the Astros to declare the story was “misleading and completely irresponsible” is, well, misleading and completely irresponsible. Dismissing the reporter out of hand and acting like Taubman was giving interviews when in fact he was spouting off because he wanted to is idiotic in the internet age when others can so quickly corroborate, but the subtext here is also, women are emotional, they’re too sensitive, her account isn’t trustworthy.

Once it finally became clear to these morons that doubling down on lies wasn’t going to work, they went with the phony contrition in the perfect non-apology: owner Jim Crane talked about money and Taubman gave the “I’m sorry you were offended” excuse. First of all, pointing to your wallet when you just hired and paid an abuser is not really a good look, and second of all, nowhere did Crane or Taubman acknowledge that Stephanie Apstein was accurate in her reporting (ya know, doing her job).

Apologizing to her for knocking her journalism might have made a little more sense. Especially since Taubman also used this opportunity to trot out the oldest and lamest excuse of them all: I’m a “loving and committed husband and father.” Listen, literally every male on this planet was birthed by a female of the species. Every single person here has a connection to a woman in the most primal of ways, so saying you’re a good guy because you know one doesn’t work. More importantly, even if you were an alien or had sprung fully formed from your father’s head like a fucking modern-day Athena, you should STILL respect women because THEY ARE PEOPLE THE SAME AS MEN ARE. This tired-ass excuse is just admitting, “I respect women because I’m putting my dick in one.” Try again, dumbshit.

At All Costs

Turning a blind eye to violence against women if it gives your team a chance to win is nothing unique to the Astros. They just really went all out in proclaiming it. Which is funny because Osuna blew the damn save so in addition to being boorish this Taubman is also just plain stupid. But we’ve seen it with Aroldis Chapman, we’ve seen it with Addison Russell, and those are just two that made headlines in these parts. It’s happened in the NFL and undoubtedly in every league more times than you can imagine. Hell, Bobby Hull is still celebrated here and he’s a monster.

And this latest situation won’t change that. Taubman and the Astros look like jerks but it’ll pass, people will forget, and front offices will continue to sign and pay men who abuse women because those men are talented athletes. If the Astros lose this series, or perhaps if Osuna himself really shits the bed, he himself will be out of a job, but there is no agreement among owners to shut these players out in the way that NFL owners blacklisted Colin Kaepernick. We know it can be done since we’ve seen them effectively freeze him out of the league, but until that dedication is turned against abusers, there will only be more stories like this, both in terms of people scratching their heads saying why is this abusive piece of shit on [fill in the blank team], and in terms of cowards like Taubman using the threat of superiority and control to intimidate women in moments when they don’t think anyone can stop them.

Same As It Ever Was

And that’s really the issue—that domestic violence is still explained away as a personal matter or a private issue, anything other than the devastating crime that it is. That’s why the Astros initially tried the smear campaign. Doing so twisted the issue of defending the indefensible to questioning whether a reporter was accurate. Accuracy is much less fraught than the former scenario and it takes the spotlight away from the fact that the team doesn’t really care if he kicked the shit out of his partner.

The worst irony of it all is the inability for these guys to admit they were wrong. Taubman was wrong for just being a douchebag, Crane was wrong for a non-apology, the organization as a whole was wrong for undermining a journalist, there’s plenty to go around. But facing domestic violence—when it’s literally happening to you—involves the harshest admission of being wrong. You have to look at yourself and everyone you know and say “I was wrong.” I was wrong about everything, I was wrong about who I thought this person was, I was wrong about what I thought my future would be, I was wrong about all the excuses I made, I was wrong about all of it. And now here I am.

The absolute inability of men in positions of power (we’ll go with sports and keep it focused here) to say that is part of why abuse is so common and so pervasive. If you can’t say you were wrong to defend this person, and you can’t say you were wrong to hire this person, then what’s going to make you say it was wrong that this abuser did what he did? It’s a culture of impunity, and unless it ever changes women will continue to be on the receiving end of that cruelty.

Photo credit: awfulannouncing.com