Hockey

Game #19: Hawks 7, Predators 2 – Just By Chance You Crossed the Diamond With The Pearl

By Rose Rankin 1983 0

Guys…I think Pekka Rinne has a terminal case of shit hip! After basically laughing publicly at the Hawks’ terrible performance a couple weeks ago, Rinne got himself laughed right out of the game tonight, giving up 4 goals on 14 shots. Ya hate to see it. And this shit went full-on DLR. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Yes, Rinne was bad and Saros wasn’t great either, but the Hawks do deserve credit for playing better this time around. At first it didn’t seem that way—they spent way too much of the first period in their own zone, but they capitalized on bad goaltending and also a beautiful play from Kirby Dach to Dominik Kubalik. So it was a bit of luck and skill combined. And the pass from Dach to Kubalik was exactly why I’ve been complaining about Dach being marooned on the fourth line. He makes plays, he’s already improving his ability to hold onto the puck, and playing him with other skilled linemates will help the team now (see: tonight’s assist) and Dach’s development overall. Playing him with fourth-line bum slayers like Zack Smith will not. (Nothing against Smith even, I’m just making a point.) Doesn’t seem that hard to figure out playing Dach on the wing with Kampf and Kubalik is better than Dach centering two oafs, but whatever.

–The other funny thing about tonight was that the Hawks got domed in possession, but stats be damned I suppose. They had just a 45, 37, and 29 CF% in each period, respectively, and they were outshot 41-24, but thanks to ‘Ole Shit Hip not being able to stop much of anything and Saros not being much better, the number that really counts was in our favor the whole time.

–And let’s just be honest, the air raid offense was in full effect tonight. Seabrook’s goal was a fluky one that Rinne should have had, but Kampf’s goal was off a fantastic end-to-end play, where the Hawks got control behind their own net, moved the puck up and out, and passed it perfectly from Maata to Shaw to Kampf. Kubalik’s aforementioned goal came off a great play. Same with Nylander’s first goal. And you know what? I’ll be magnanimous about Nylander’s second too because it was a damn good shot set up by a great pass off the boards by Saad. The Hawks didn’t always control the puck or the play but they were able to get rushes and bury their shots. Would be nice if they could maybe hold onto the puck and stop giving up over 40 shots a night, but you know what they say about gift horses.

–Alex DeBrincat was excellent tonight even though he didn’t actually put the puck in the net. His ability to keep plays alive, and in particular getting the pass to Patrick Kane on the fifth goal, were outstanding. Piece of Shit Austin Watson wanted to obliterate him but couldn’t, and Garbage Dick didn’t miss once he got the pass.

–Lehner was fantastic again as well, let’s not forget that. Granted, facing 41 shots seems like an easy night with this team, but he still finished the night with a .951 SV% and absolutely kept the Hawks in it in the early going before the game was definitely in hand.

And with that, let’s not delay this DLR any longer…

 

 

Line of the Night: “That was a bad goal.” —Eddie Olczyk, stating the very obvious after Seabrook’s knuckleball on Rinne

Beer de jour: Mercury by On Tour Brewing

Hockey

Game #19 – Hawks vs. Predators Preview: Bursting With Fear

By Sam Fels 1342 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 7-7-4   9-6-3

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WE ALL LIVE IN A YELLOW TRAILER: On The Forecheck

You probably didn’t expect, after that complete shellacking two weeks ago in the same venue, when these two met up again the Hawks would be only three points behind the Predators. And with a win tonight in regulation, the Preds would be feeling hot giardiniera breath on their necks. Such is reality, which is what happens when various parts of your team rotate going haywire for a couple weeks.

The Preds have lost five of six coming into this (a couple in extra time), while the Hawks have sucked up 10 of 13 points in the meantime. Which is how you get this standing. That doesn’t mean these teams are just three points apart in quality overall, and you saw that the last game these two played. The Hawks haven’t been rolled like that since the Suhonen or Yawney days, and perhaps was the start of the process that got the Hawks to change their ways…however minor or major that actually was.

So what’s up with the Preds? Why has it fallen out of gear for them? Well one, the goaltending has been terrible. Pekka Rinne has only had one good start since that October disaster (for the Hawks), and it came against the Red Wings which barely counts. In his other three starts his SV% is .797. Saros has been better in the meantime, though he couldn’t stop that nine-goals-of-fun the Avalanche hung up on them.

The offense hasn’t been all that consistent either. They managed one goal against the Sharks, and one goal against the Rangers in this streak. When they have gotten goals, Rinne has employed the Roger Dorn defense in net.

Is that what the Preds are overall? Probably not, though they’re not an unholy force either. Their Corsi-percentage is just at tick over even. Their expected-goals is just a tick above that. Which is a tad strange for the Predators. And digging a little deeper, it gets a touch confusing.

In terms of attempts, the Preds give up a lot of them. Bottom-10 in the league. They also generate a fair amount for themselves. But when it comes to chances, it’s the opposite. They keep teams to the outside for the most part, but they also don’t get to the prime areas enough themselves. There’s a lot of noise in the Predators’ game right now, in that there’s a lot of stuff happening but not a huge portion of it really means anything. Still, when Rinne is off to the Kerry Wood Memorial Zoo then those half-chances and winged-hopes from the outside are still ending up in twine.

It’s generally not a good sign when your two leading scorers are d-men. One you can get away with. The Preds have a clear line from their top six to their bottom six and their top pairing to their bottom pairings. When Josi and Ellis are on the ice, good things happen and the Preds are on the right side of the ice. Same goes for either Matt Duchene‘s or Treat Boy’s line. But when Nick Bonino or Kyle Turris is the center, again, the Predators back up.

That’s probably why the Preds have made no secret they’d like to move Turris’s ass along, in another brilliant David Poile move. He’s currently centering their fourth line for the rate of $6M a year. They could also probably use another puck-mover on the second or third pairing. Didn’t they have one once? I seem to remember they did. He was pretty good, right? Correct me if I’m wrong.

Another factor the Preds might want to keep an eye on is that they’re currently shooting over 10% at even-strength, which leads the league by nearly a full percentage point. That is likely to come down, and then where will they be?

Turning to the Hawks, who will get Connor Murphy back tonight. While no team should need Connor Murphy this much, the Hawks do and he’s simply been their best d-man last season and the brief time he was around this one. At the moment he seems slotted on the third pairing, as Colliton doesn’t want to mess up what he’s got going with Keith-Gus and de Haan-Seabrook. This won’t take more than a period to change, given the mobility the Hawks need to counter the Preds.

Robin Lehner will be in goal, and he’ll probably need to perform a few miracles like he did last time in Nashville just to keep the Hawks from getting embarrassed. Hopefully this time if he does that it’ll result in points.

This will be something of a test of the Hawks new, aggressive, Loyola-Marymount ’89 ways. Then again, so was Vegas. The Hawks simply couldn’t deal with the Preds speed at forward last time, and they were turning the puck over before they knew they had it. This meant the Preds defense could pinch and move up in the zone to their hearts’ content, as there was no threat the other way.

If the Hawks are still serious about getting behind the opponent’s defense, while risking their defense and center being outmanned down low in their zone, they might get the Preds’ defense to back up. At least it could provide a quick outlet for a defense that’s going to be under serious pressure from the off, even if it’s just laying it out into the neutral zone and causing races back. But going back is where you want the bottom four D of the Preds. It hasn’t worked out well for them lately. The risk of course is that furious Preds forecheck will have even more fun with even less manpower and options for any puck carrier below his net or deep in his zone for the Hawks.

You’d think there’d be a measure of pride for the Hawks here as well. They were made to look like a high school team their last visit. That will still be fresh in the memory banks. Pekka Rinne was basically laughing at them in the postgame. The Hawks still like to think they carry the most pedigree in any matchup. It’s fading, but they still cling to it. Perhaps now would be the time to show it.

Hockey

Game #19 – Hawks vs. Predators Spotlight: So He Ran Away….GRANLUND

By Sam Fels 1328 0

Mikael Granlund‘s career might be measured in just how much it never quite was.

When Granlund came up with the Wild in 2013, it was assumed that Mikko Koivu was only keeping the #1 center role warm for him. Here we are nearly seven years later, and Koivu is somehow still there while Granlund is now in yellow. The best laid plains of mice and men…

It could be argued whether Granlund ever really got a chance to take over as the top center in St. Paul. He certainly got looks under different coaches, but never serious run. and Granlund’s numbers certainly weren’t bad with the Wild, far from it. He had two 65+-point seasons and was on his way to another one before being traded last year. He had put together two 20+-goal seasons and again, before the trade to Nashville was on another one. They aren’t #1 center numbers, but they’re good. Equal or better than what Koivu was doing. It says something though when the team chooses Eric Staal and his walker over you.

Granlund also found most of his success on the wing, and when tried as the #1 center things just didn’t quite mesh. The Wild had that one, Dubnyk-inspired season that saw them almost win the division in 2017…and then go quietly out of things in the first round of the playoffs. Maybe that was the beginning of the end for the Wild, as Granlund never really took a playoff series by the neck.

Then again, how good were those Wild teams anyway? And we know the braintrust was smelling foul, because they moved Granlund possibly at the height of his value for Kevin Goddamn Fiala, who’s been a healthy scratch at times. Maybe the Wild just didn’t know what they had?

Harder to make that case, because surprisingly it hasn’t been wonderful yet for Granlund as a Predator. It made sense in theory; a fast, skilled player moving to a team that wanted to get up and down the ice a whole lot more than Bruce Boudreau could with the outfit he was provided in Minnehaha. But Granlund only managed five points in 16 games with the Preds last year, and is on the same total so far this year in 18 games. And you can’t say he hasn’t been given chances, because he’s exclusively been on the top six, centered by either Matt Duchene or Treat Boy.

Granlund has run into some rotten luck in Music City, it has to be said. He shot below 4% after his trade last season, and is only at 7.9% this year, which would be the lowest mark of his career since he became an NHL regular. Granlund’s attempts are the highest of his career as well, as are his individual expected goals per game. Perhaps he’s squeezing, trying to be too perfect with the shots and chances he’s getting. There could be a binge here soon, given what the metrics say.

Which will make it a hard call for Nashville either at the deadline or in the summer. Granlund will hit unrestricted free agency after the season, and at 28 it’ll probably be his only chance, or last chance, to ink a big contract. He won’t fit into the Preds’ long-term plans if they can’t unload Kyle Turris and his “yeah but who gives a shit?” production.

How big of a market there will be outside for Granlund is debatable. There’s always a home for a player with his skillset, but he’s also the type of player teams sign just to sign someone, to try and prove to anyone listening they’re trying, and then watch that player not move the needle a whole lot. He feels like another Gustav Nyquist. A fine addition to an already built team, a contributor, but he’s not going to pivot anyone’s fortunes.

Perhaps that’s the conclusion the Wild got to with him. The Preds might not be far behind.

Hockey

Game #19 – Hawks vs. Predators: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1131 0

Ryan Johansen – Treat Boy here always gets labeled as one of the top centers in the game, and we still can’t figure out why. His numbers the past two seasons mirror that of Jonathan Toews, and everyone’s relatively sure he looks like the host of “Tales From The Crypt.” RyJo Sen played his ass off just long enough in 2017 to get a fat new deal from the Preds, and then he became a fat new deal. The dude has one 70+ point season. When the Preds get bounced early again, it’ll probably be because Ryan O’Reilly or Nathan MacKinnon hand him his considerable lunch.

Matt Duchene – Rich kid face with an Oakland booty!

Austin Watson – Any day now, David Poile is going to yell, “I’m so fucking glad we have Austin Watson” at some female reporter. Except it’s Nashville, so that’s probably like an every day thing there.

Hockey

They Want To Talk About Offense? Let’s Talk About Offense

By Sam Fels 1576 0

The chatter of late, if you have your ear to the Hawks’ wire, is that they’ve really tapped into their offense, unlocked the cheat code, their heads have gotten super huge and now all they do is the flying triple-flip dunks (man I need to play some NBA Jam soon). You can find symposiums on it here, here, or here.

We talked about it on the podcast, and before the Vegas game we did notice that the Hawks were looking to get out into space more…which is just about the aim of every team that’s worth a shit. But hey, we want the Hawks to be worth a shit, too! Colliton did let it out that they’d moved their weak-side forward closer to the point-man, because when the Hawks were recovering pucks they found that having him four feet away wasn’t leading to a lot of breakout possibilities. They were starting out with the opponent’s d-men and third forward already in front of them. The hope was that they could get behind them a bit more with a second forward ready to spring. Makes sense.

Is it really working out, though? Get ready folks, I’ve got more charts! Oh do I have charts! First, their attempts per game:

Corsi For/60

Hmm, not really much there. Kind of trending down all season. Ok, let’s try just actual shots-on-goal…

Shots For/60

Not much there either. I know, let’s got to expected goals for, because that will tell us if they’re getting better chances even with the same or slightly less amount of attempts and shots.

xGF/60

A little better. Some of this is score-effects of course, but overall the Hawks are still trending down. Now, it’s important to mention that as the season goes along, pretty much every team trends down a touch, because October hockey is the most open and then teams really start to lock it down, or stop caring about getting up the ice as fast, fatigue is probably a factor, as are injuries to key players. But still, for all the noise you’d like to think the Hawks are trending a little better than this. Could it be something else?

Shooting Percentage

Houston Hello!

Now, again, we have to be fair to the Hawks. For most of the season they were shooting below 7%, and with the snipers they have that simply was never going to continue. There was always going to be a market correction, though it would have been hard to predict this violent of one over three games.

But let’s be positive, while admitting this is far too small of a sample size to know what’s really going to happen. But check this out:

xGA/60

Whatever the Hawks have been doing, this has held pretty steady over the season. So you could say that the threat the Hawks have carried of last has kept some teams on their heels. Both the Knights and Leafs piled up shots but not exactly a ton of great chances until score-effects kicked in, and even then it wasn’t huge. The Knights especially, given how immobile their defense is in spots, were hesitant to get them too involved, and when they did we saw the amount of odd-man rushes the Hawks got in the other direction.

Will that work tomorrow in Nashville against perhaps the most mobile defense in the league? Most likely not. But the thing is, few teams have the mobility on the blue line the Preds do, and they can get overly adventurous here and there. We need more games to know for sure, and probably isn’t worth revisiting until the new year, but so far the Hawks have benefitted from their marksmanship returning to their normal levels more than some systematic change.

Hockey

Things Are Going Well, So Hawks Put Off The Hard Stuff

By Sam Fels 1904 0

I should state right at the top that I’m not much one for confrontation either, and have spent a lifetime running from my problems. So to say I understand where the Hawks are coming from would be putting it lightly.

The Hawks have taken seven of the last eight points. They just got their first win over Vegas. They seem to have found a balance with what their coach wants and what the players want. They’re scoring, the goalies are playing spectacularly. They’re back to .500 and there’s at least a glimmer of hope that they could springboard from here into at least making the season interesting. It’s easy to understand why the Hawks don’t really want to be rocking the boat right now.

With that in mind, they sent Adam Boqvist back to Rockford this morning. Which means Connor Murphy is ready to go on Saturday in Nashville, for another impressive 11 minutes before something else on him goes TWANG! All makes sense. But the hard conversation is coming for the front office, so they might as well have it now.

We talked about this on the podcast, but this week is another chance to have a sit-down with Brent Seabrook. Because the clock is ticking very loudly and the Hawks have run out of ways to avoid it now. No later then next summer they’re going to have to do this, and if they are in a playoff chase (which they aren’t yet) it’s probably coming sooner. So why not get ahead of it?

Have Stan and Colliton and McDonough meet with him in Nashville or wherever the next two days, and calmly explain that they can’t keep Boqvist in Rockford forever, and it’s about winning games and he helps us do that. Again, make it clear how much Seabrook has meant to the organization and his teammates and fans. You’ve already prepared the ground a little by his double-scratching, which they handled poorly (even if it was the right decision at the base of it). Tell him this is where he is, this is where the team is going, and if that works for him or not. Assure him you’ll try and accommodate him if it doesn’t, but he should also know that a trade is hardly a guarantee given the factors involved. Just keep him informed and feeling like he has some control of the situation.

We know what Seabrook’s voice means in the dressing room, and they don’t want to lose that. But the players also want to win and get back into the playoffs. Adam Boqvist helps that cause. He helps it more than Brent Seabrook does. And though they’ll never say it out loud, the players know that too.

Sure, you could duck out of it and start scratching Olli Maatta whenever Boqvist returns. If it was good enough for the Penguins and all that. Doesn’t seem like the way this is trending.

And as we’ve said, this is coming. Even if you say that Boqvist will take Gustafsson’s spot after Gus leaves in free agency or is traded, whither Ian Mitchell? Or Nicholad Beaudin or Chad Krys if they pop up into the frame? This is precisely why you don’t trade for vets with multiple years left on their deals when you’re trying to pivot to younger d-men, but this is the bind you’ve put yourself in.

You can only put it off for so long, and everyone would be healthier if you start dealing with it now. What if Boqvist spends the next two weeks or month simply lighting up the AHL while Seabrook continues to gasp for air? And if the power play goes stale? And the record never really gets far away from .500 in either direction?

There will only be one answer. Best to start preparing for it now.

Hockey

Game #18 – I Got a Molotov Cocktail With a Match to Go, I Smoke My Cigarette With Style – Hawks 5, Knights 3

By John Pullega 1963 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolving Hockey

Holy shit, that was fun. I would like every game to be like this going forward. Air raid, motherfuckers. Let’s clean it up.

– Corey Crawford is a goddamn treasure and he should have his number retired. Nights like tonight remind you just how important he’s been to this team for the last nine years. Per usual, the Hawks got mauled in shots on goal, but Corey Crawford could not give less of a fuck about that if he took a vow of celibacy. He made 39 saves on 42 shots, including about 10 high-danger saves. Not one of the goals he gave up was on him. He kept the Hawks ahead in the second, when the Knights pressed the hardest. He even got called for a bullshit “throwing object” penalty and withstood a Marchessault penalty shot.

We say this just about every game, but without the goaltending, this is a route. Corey Crawford was the star of this shootout.

– The 12–17–88 line was furious tonight. DeBrincat and Strome were nails with their passing, and Garbage Dick scored a much-needed answer goal in the first. On that goal, DeBrincat shrugged off pressure from Karlsson and left a soft pass for Strome along the far boards. Then, Strome fired a cross-ice pass to a streaking Kane, who was left all alone for a quick one timer.

Then, for the coup de grace in the third, Strome took a backhand saucer pass from DeBrincat up the middle and potted the Hawks’s fifth goal high glove side. The Hawks scored three of their five high glove.

– Kirby Dach is going to be a special player. I bitched and moaned when they took him over Byram, but I’m happy to be entirely fucking wrong about that. Can you believe that his goal was probably the second most impressive play he made tonight? And boy, what a goal it was. Zack Smith (more on him shortly) made Ryan Reaves look like, well, Ryan Reaves, along the near boards, angling a pass toward Ryan Carpenter. Carpenter pushed the puck up to Dach, who stuffed home his own rebound after Flower’s initial denial. That would have been impressive enough. But check this fucking shit out:

Seabrook makes a pass up the boards to a well-covered Dach. Despite getting imprisoned along the boards by Nick “The” Hague, Dach managed to shovel a one-handed pass to Zack Smith (there’s that name again), who then fed a pass to de Haan for the Hawks’s second goal. The strength and poise to make a play like that is exceptional, and Dach made it look easy. Just imagine what he’s going to do with 30 extra pounds. Plus, he led all Hawks in possession and was one of just four Hawks to finish above water (Maatta, Carpenter, DeBrincat). Holy shit, what fun.

– Calvin de Haan put on a “Fuck Your Analytics” clinic. He and Seabrook may have gotten pasted in possession to the tune of a 29+ and 34+ CF%, respectively, but it didn’t matter. De Haan’s goal was a masterful high-glove shot. Though we usually scoff at blocks, each of de Haan’s three was purposeful. His defense after the first period was essential.

Yeah, his piss coverage on the PK—wherein he floated toward the near boards to cover a low-risk Marchessault, giving Karlsson a parting-of-the-Red-Sea-sized lane to drive down—led to a goal. And his questionable coverage of Patches earlier in the first period—covering Patches, who was skating behind the net, by flying in front of Crawford—nearly led to another goal. But he tightened up in the second and third and was the good kind of noticeable the rest of the way. Fuck Corsi, indeed.

– I would like to officially take back any bad things I’ve ever said about Zack Smith. A penalty shot, two outstanding assists, embarrassing Ryan Reaves more so than Ryan Reaves does naturally, and a 100 GF% is quite a night. He was one of the most fun guys to watch out there tonight.

– Nylander had a couple of nice passes again, sandwiched between a few bad turnovers and a lot of invisibility. Conversely, Kubalik was quiet most of the night until the end of the second, when he had two prime chances stuffed. I get not wanting to change what’s working (for whatever reason it’s working), but I’d like to see those two flip spots. Just to see.

– With Connor Murphy coming back this weekend, this was likely the last we’ve seen of Boqvist for a while. It’s dumb, but I guess in context, it makes sense. He had a really strong first period (72+ CF%, 89+ xGF%), but he sort of tapered off as the game went on. We would have loved to see him on the PP1 instead of Keith, but Colliton is in this weird hockey libertarian phase right now. His interference penalty in the third wasn’t all bad though, as he showed that when he puts his ass into it, he can overpower NHL players. Small things.

– I’m only going to mention how bad Brent Seabrook looked because he is a seventh D-man whom the Hawks are too scared to scratch for Boqvist’s sake. He was overmatched by the Knights’s speed all night and didn’t really have a single positive contribution. It’s profoundly stupid that he gets to play over Boqvist, because Boqvist—for all his greenness—is still a bigger threat.

– Erik Gustafsson is coming back to life. He was uneven on the defensive side, which is good for him. His goal was a prime example of what he can do when he plays with talented players. Strome fed him a perfect pass from just above the goal line, giving Gus a chance to skate one way and shoot the other. Let’s hope that he continues to score so the Hawks can get more than a bag of pucks for him at the deadline.

– Brayden McNabb can eat all of the shit on Earth.

It doesn’t have to make sense if it’s fun. If the Hawks continue to commit to the air raid, they’re going to win more games than if they go back to whatever the fuck MAGIC TRAINING CAMP produced. It looks more like individual brilliance than anything systemic, but for now, who gives a shit? Just win, baby.

Also, fuck the Knights.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch and Bell’s Best Brown

Line of the Night: “Almost touched it in the restricted area as that puck was coming hot and heavy.” –Eddie O.