Hawks
Notes: Highmore was called up to be the extra forward so perhaps Caligula’s absence is going to go on a bit longer. And also they’ll never try seven d-men again…Top Cat doesn’t have a goal in his last eight…Throw out Nylander’s two garbage time goals against the Preds and he hasn’t scored a meaningful goal since October 14th. Maybe time to give Dach a look-see there?
Stars
Notes: Hintz and Klingberg returned against the Hawks last time they met, and both were on the scoresheet against the Knights last night…this will be the Stars’ third game in four so maybe catch them tired?…Radulov and Janmark has switched lines and Radulov responded with five shots and three points against Vegas…the Hawks will get another look at Khudobin, which didn’t go all that well last time…Montgomery talked about how the Hawks always cycle back in their own zone when they get the puck, so maybe try and get up the ice quicker this time?
Ok so the quarter mark is a little past but I’m getting to it now so shut up. As a reminder, I like to occasionally take a look at what the NHL standings would look like if they had a standings system that was actually logical. So basically, we’re going to remove overtime results from the equation, and anything that goes beyond 60 minutes is a tie. So this is purely regulation results. First, your actual NHL standings:
| Atlantic Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Boston Bruins | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| Florida Panthers | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 24 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| Ottawa Senators | 22 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 21 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 24 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| Metropolitan Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Washington Capitals | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 22 |
| New York Rangers | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| New Jersey Devils | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 18 |
| Central Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| St. Louis Blues | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 33 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| Dallas Stars | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 28 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 23 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 22 |
| Nashville Predators | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| Minnesota Wild | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 20 |
| Pacific Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Edmonton Oilers | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 28 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 26 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 26 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 23 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| San Jose Sharks | 23 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 23 |
| Calgary Flames | 25 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 23 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 22 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 19 |
Ok, now let’s throw out OT.
| Atlantic Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Boston Bruins | 22 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 33 |
| Florida Panthers | 22 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 22 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 24 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 22 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 19 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| Ottawa Senators | 22 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 24 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Metropolitan Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Washington Capitals | 24 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 22 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 22 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 22 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| New York Rangers | 19 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 21 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| New Jersey Devils | 20 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| Central Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| St. Louis Blues | 23 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| Dallas Stars | 23 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 22 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 23 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 22 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| Nashville Predators | 21 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| Minnesota Wild | 22 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Pacific Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Edmonton Oilers | 24 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 23 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 24 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 23 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| San Jose Sharks | 23 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| Calgary Flames | 25 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 22 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Over in the WestSo what are some differences? Well, the Bruins are even more the class of the league, and the Panthers are trailing by some distance. The Capitals have an incredible 10 ties in 24 games, and come back to the pack a little more. Carolina and Pittsburgh swap places. Carolina and Philly are your wild card teams in the East.
Over in the West, the Blues come back to the pack a little, the Stars and Avs swap places, and the Hawks, Preds, and Wild are tied in a group of sadness, having only the Flames and the Kings beat. And the Flames are probably having all their shoestrings removed. The Hawks would be only two points out of a playoff spot though, instead of the current four they are now. Arizona would fall from second to fourth in their division. Arizona and Anaheim would be your wild cards.
Just some food for thought.
A ho-hum affair through 40 turned into a small heartbreaker in the last 20. The Hawks gave up three goals against a team that ended up skating 10 forwards from the second period on, which isn’t great, but they kept it interesting. Let’s clean it up.
– Sue me for leading with Corey Crawford again, but of all the things the Hawks have done consistently well, goaltending is it. The highlight of Crow’s night came on the heels of Slater Koekkoek (more on him later) not doing whatever it is that Jeremy Colliton thinks he can do. After taking a stretch pass from Mathieu Joseph, Anthony Cirelli played catch with Alex Killorn on a 2-on-1 breakaway against Brent Seabrook. Christ on Earth what a horrifying thought. But Crawford managed to stop both of Cirelli’s attempts, which even a slightly lesser goalie would have been beaten on.
And once again, it’s hard to fault Crow for any of the three goals he was on the ice for. One came against a top-flight power play, and the other two came off bad positioning and turnovers.
– The next time Coach Kelvin Gemstone wants to inexplicably scratch a forward in favor of seven defensemen, he should scratch Alex Nylander instead of Dominik Kubalik. Unless Kubalik was hurt, refusing to serve A Bit of the Kubbly is bad on its own, given what Kubalik can do on both sides of the puck. But what, exactly, has Alex Nylander done lately, other than scoring two garbage-time goals against a backup goaltender? That’s not a hypothetical, because Nylander’s lackadaisicalness led directly to Tampa’s response goal in the third.
Following a failed Maatta clear that unfortunately hit the linesman, Nylander floated to the near boards to cover precisely zero skaters. This of course left a huge lane open for Victor Hedman, whose shot redirected off Cirelli and in. We knew that Nylander was a loaf on the defensive side of the puck, so it’s not so much surprising as it is disappointing, following the Seabrook miracle goal as it did. Surely, whatever system Colliton thinks he’s running doesn’t help, but picking your ass on the near boards doesn’t either. So.
– Piggybacking off that point, this whole playing Slater Fucking Koekkoek for any reason whatsoever horseshit needs to end yesterday. He contributed absolutely nothing positive, which should surprise no one, and was nearly responsible for a Lightning goal late in the second with the Hawks already down. This should be enough to bring your piss to a boil, but it gets even worse, dear reader.
Remember those two huge saves Crawford made that we talked about earlier? You can blame Fetch for that. With Mathieu Joseph beginning the breakout from the defensive zone, Koekkoek hovers in the neutral zone, then points at Joseph to signal to David Kampf to cover him. Yes, David Kampf, one of the steadiest and most reliable defensive players the Hawks have. While Slater MacArthur was giving his directives, wouldn’t you know it, Joseph fired a pass right by him, leading to two high-quality chances.
I don’t need Slater Koekkoek on the ice. I especially don’t need him making suggestions to one of the Hawks’s best defensive forwards about how to play defense. And the cherry on top was that he got playing time over Kubalik. I can only imagine that Colliton did this because Koekkoek was drafted by the Lightning and wanted to let him start against his former team, but that’s fucking stupid. Koekkoek was never a stalwart there. He was an afterthought. That’s why he’s here at all. Great work.
– Olli Maatta even slides slow. He sold out trying to defend Point and Palat’s 2-on-1 following a Kane turnover in the neutral zone and was both too early and too short on the uptake.
– Patrick Kane did keep his scoring streak alive with an assist on the Hawks’s second goal. He also led the Hawks in ice time with 27+ minutes, because Jeremy Colliton definitely knows what he’s doing and absolutely isn’t out of ideas just 22 games in.
– Speaking of Colliton knowing what he’s doing, the first period was chock-full of examples of why his defensive system doesn’t work with this team.
On this play, Palat passes up to Shattenkirk, who drives down the near boards. Palat then picks Dach as Shattenkirk gets around Murphy. Then, de Haan comes out to cover Shattenkirk, despite the fact that Brayden Point was standing right in front of Crawford and also WAS THE GUY DE HAAN WAS COVERING. Why abandon Point there? Is that what he’s supposed to do? If so, is Dach supposed to take Point at that point? What the hell are we doing here?
Here’s another fun one. Cernak takes a shot from the blue line and misses. Murphy can’t corral the puck behind the net. Conacher picks it up, and Dach and Koekkoek both try to cover him, leaving Joseph wide open in the slot. If this is what the system spits out, then the system sucks. If this is NOT what the system is supposed to spit out, then the Hawks cannot run it, and it should cease immediately.
– Brent Seabrook’s goal was fun. You rarely want to see Seabrook skating below the goal line, but he banked his shot off McElhinney’s back and in. It was a nice sliver of hope while it lasted.
They made it interesting at the end. That’s all we really ask.
Onward.
Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s and Bell’s Best Brown
Line of the Night: “I love any kind of bar, but the popup ones are fun, too.” –Foley
Everything to get you ready for tonight’s festival of fun at 1901 West.
vs. 
RECORDS: Lightning 9-7-2 Hawks 9-8-4
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
THE GUYS WHO DON’T LOOK LIKE XQUISITE: Raw Charge
It may sound strange to say the Hawks have more points than the Lightning, but that’s the case as the two ’15 Finalists get together again on West Madison. But of course, as we know here, that doesn’t mean the Hawks are better off than the Bolts. The Hawks collected their 22 points in the Cirque de Stupid that is the Central Division and Western Conference as a whole, whereas the Lightning are trying to fight through the gauntlet of the Atlantic. And one of these teams did put up 128 points last year, while the other missed the lowest bar for the playoffs in years by a good distance. And not that much has changed.
That’s not to say everything is rosy in Tampa. They’re sitting just three points above the Eastern cellar, though only two points out of the last playoff spot. While watching the Lightning, or trying to measure them by various metrics, it’s kind of clear that there’s still a malaise from last spring hanging over and in this team. Nothing they do in the regular season is going to matter to anyone, but sadly with the division they’re in they can’t play the whole regular season like it doesn’t matter. Which is kind of what they’ve been doing. Other than their power play, which has reached that “self aware” level, everything else is just meh. Right in the middle of the league.
The Lightning still score, as their overall goals-per-game and even-strength goals per game are in the top five. With the king of marksmen like Kucherov and Stamkos and Point and others, they don’t need to dominate possession to get the scoring they need. Which is good, because they aren’t. Their possession and expected goals numbers re firmly middle of the pack. Again, they can get away with that given the talent for long stretches, but it’s not ideal long-term.
Especially as they may not get the PDO balance at the other end right now. When picking through the rubble of last season’s meltdown in the first round, it was hard not to start with Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s .856 SV%. Anyone can have a bad four games of course, but any big save from Vas in at least Games 1 or 2 could have pivoted that series. The Bolts never got one. That hangover seems to have carried over to this season, where he’s carrying a .906. The Hawks will get the backup tonight, as Curtis McElhinney will take the start.
And that’s probably the biggest factor for the Bolts to get back on track, because they don’t give up a ton of great chances. They’re not among the league’s best, but comfortably in the top half. If Vas can get back to .915 or better, everything should be fine in Tampa.
It also might not hurt the Lightning that they’ve only played seven home games so far, and after this one tonight 14 of their next 17 will be in Tampa. You wouldn’t be shocked by a charge up the standings before New Year’s.
To the Hawks, who could or could not be with Andrew Shaw tonight. He didn’t practice yesterday so they’re going to see how he shows up tonight. If he doesn’t go, the Hawks will dress all seven d-men as they don’t have an extra forward at the moment with Drake Caggiula in a dark room somewhere (my whole life is a dark room…). Every time in the past the Hawks have tried the 7-D look it has gone horribly, and everyone bitches to high heaven about it after. I still think it should be something they try more often and with Boqvist involved, if only to shelter him and Seabrook better. It also provides extra shifts here and there for Kane, Toews, Saad, Dach, DeBrincat, which is a good thing. But what do I know? I’m just a drunk in the rain. Corey Crawford will be your starter.
The Hawks got embarrassed twice by the Lightning last year, though no scoreline truly reflects it. This was the opponent that put up 30 shots in a period on them at the United Center last time around. Quite simply, the Hawks aren’t built to deal with this kind of skill and speed. And really, neither of those things have changed.
The difference, albeit small, between what the Hawks saw on Tuesday and what they’ll get tonight is the Lightning defense isn’t as consistently mobile as Carolina’s. Sure, Hedman and Kirk ShattenKevin are, and Sergachev and Cernak are too. But Sergachev can get wayward when under pressure, and whether it’s Schenn or Rutta joining him that can be exploited. So can Ryan McDonagh on the second pairing. Whereas the Hawks couldn’t get behind Carolina’s last line, they can on this one.
Which means some other d-men besides Connor Murphy have to get the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible to get the defense to back up, which in turn will give everyone more room to breathe. As we saw last year, when the Hawks try their 17-pass breakout, the Lightning’s plus-plus speed at forward and on the forecheck swallows them whole and spits them back out inside out. There just isn’t time for that, at least not until you back them up by proving you can and will stretch the ice.
It’s a rough part of the schedule, as the Hawks again get one of the better teams in the league, whatever the standings say, before two with the hottest team in the league and then two with maybe the best team in the division. But if you want to go somewhere, you can’t always take the path of least resistance.
Sometimes your aimless speculation turns into reality. You should probably just accept the good fortune that makes you look prescient instead of questioning the randomness of the fates.
Yesterday, Mike Babcock was fired, which started a flicker that could turn into a full out flame of wondering and soon rumors that he could find his way to Chicago. If the Hawks were to fall on their face at any point this season and miss the playoffs by a huge margin, Jeremy Colliton‘s position would certainly be awkward if not untenable. Babcock’s name has cache, would command respect immediately from the main vets in the room (three of whom have played for him at the Olympic level), and at least provide a floor of professionalism and structure.
It would also be the wrong move.
We broke down why it would be on the podcast, so let’s shift the focus. We’ve had a lot of fun with Jon Cooper around here (a lot of fun), but what that doesn’t change is that he’s a very good coach. Perhaps the leader in the “Not A Moron” category in our binary system of rating coaches around the league.
The Lightning have never finished with less than 94 points under his watch, now in its 7th season. The one year they missed the playoffs, Steven Stamkos played just 17 games, Ben Bishop was hurt as well and Andrei Vasilevskiy was making his first foray into being a starter. And they still gathered 94 points. He was the captain on the ship that gobbled up 128 points last year.
Moreover, Cooper has been able to integrate and develop a wave of young talent to turn the Lightning into a power. First it was the Triplets of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat, with the middle guy there becoming an MVP. Of late it’s been Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde and Mikhail Sergachev and Eric Cernak. He knows how to put people in the places they will have the best chance of succeeding. And he plays an up-tempo, get up the ice style that meshes with what the NHL is these days.
Mike Babcock does none of these things.
However, Babs’s name will carry more weight because of the trophy cabinet, a mark Cooper has yet to make. Two conference finals, a Final appearance, and all were lost to modern dynasties by the tightest of margins (yes, it’s a stretch to call the Caps that, but their decade-spanning stay atop their division certainly makes them one of the teams of the era). No other coach around is matching that aside from Mike Sullivan in Pittsburgh of late, aside from one Joel Quenneville.
Which you might think would make it pure fantasy that Cooper could even get fired, let alone come to Chicago. But is it? Along with that record-breaking season last year comes the weight of the embarrassing first-round collapse. And as the malaise from that has carried over into this season, one wonders how much the pressure is already ramping up. The enduring image of Cooper at the moment are his exclamations of “This is our chance!” during Game 4 in Columbus last year when an offsides challenge had canceled out a Jackets goal.
Really? You had the greatest team of the modern era, or at least the best regular season, and this is what you need to get past a team 35 points behind you in the standings? Clearly, it wasn’t their chance.
Cooper has to wear that, though there isn’t anything a coach is going to do about a goalie who puts up an .856 SV% over four games. Still, the Lightning seemed to freeze in the headlights after a Game 1 loss.
Which isn’t fair, because Cooper has playoff success on his resume, which means he’s instilled a confidence and fight in his team before. Couldn’t it just be an anomaly?
Still, this Lightning team is now as Cup-or-bust as it gets. And sitting second-last in the Atlantic probably isn’t what the front office had in mind when they basically held the line on personnel this summer (as they should have). Could they get itchy? Could they conclude something broke last spring and only a new voice will snap the players over that hurdle? Not so outlandish, is it?
Should it happen, the Hawks should be all over Cooper. Maybe he doesn’t carry the cache of Babcock, but you know what? He’s the better coach. If you’re a Hawks fan hoping for a seismic change behind the bench, this is the one you want.
Pat Maroon – A fine fourth liner, and yet he’ll get to wear the label of “the final ingredient” because he happened to be on the Blues last year and from St. Louis. Oh sure, he scored the goal that beat the Stars, a team that took the Blues to seven games even though they couldn’t actually score. And after their first round debacle, the Lightning felt they were missing something, which actually was a goalie who didn’t spend all four games sneezing bending himself into a pretzel but they thought was some goof on the fourth line. What happens if the Bolts go out early again? Does Maroon lose his magic?
Cedric Paquette – Remember when this dingleberry couldn’t wait to suck up all the press about how he was the ultimate pest in Game 3 of the ’15 Final because he had one good game? Yeah, well, Toews ate his heart the rest of the series and the Lightning scored two more goals. Never heard from him again.
Kirk ShattenKevin – Because the Hawks could have had him for the same song the Bolts got him, and they needed his mobility more than Tampa did. But that would take actual vision, and not clogging up your blue line with multi-year deals for the likes of Olli Maatta.
Lightning
Notes: Kucherov suffered a concussion on Tuesday against St. Louis (go figure), so he’s out tonight which shifts Stamkos to the top line wing and Johnson back to center…The Hawks will get a look at the backup tonight in McElhinney…Jan Rutta might replace Schenn in the lineup on the third pairing, which…Yeehah!…Hedman has eight points in his last five games…Point hasn’t scored in November…
Hawks
Notes: Shaw is a gametime decision. If he doesn’t go the Hawks will dress seven d-men, which has been just short of a disaster every time they’ve tried it, and also causes mass bitching from Seabrook and Keith…Toews has strung three good games together, and if Point is left to Kampf he might get an easier matchup tonight…Dach finished the last game with Kane and DeBrincat, see if they go back to that if things aren’t clicking again…
