Hockey

Game #42 – Hawks vs. Canucks Preview: Merry New Year

By Sam Fels 1653 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 18-17-6   Canucks 21-15-4

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

GARBAGE THROWERS: Canucks Army

The Hawks start 2020 in Vancouver, which in some way was where everything started. Not only was it their biggest rival and site of some of their biggest wins, but it’s where Seabrook, Keith, and Toews won a Gold Medal before they’d won a Cup, which you could argue only set off their appetite for more silverware. Now they’re just barely alive in the playoff race. Tonight they’ll see another one chasing the postseason after an absence, which hasn’t been something that’s gone well for them in the past.

The Vancouver Canucks have won five in a row, which actually has them in the third spot in the Pacific but only one point above the trap door in the West with the Flames, Jets, and Oilers right on their ass. You’d think the Flames will get their act together soon, which probably means the Canucks are still looking at a wildcard spot. The Hawks claim they’re looking at those two. Which would make this something of a four-pointer. But the Hawks have biffed pretty much every one of these when they’ve had the chance. You remember games against the Avs, Stars, or Coyotes last year where they couldn’t even manage a point that they needed. If they’re serious, a regulation win is needed and then to be backed up with a bunch more.

So how did the Canucks get here? Mostly goaltending. Jacob Markstom has been great in December, with a .927 SV%. The Canucks mostly have been getting domed in games of late, but Markstrom has seen them through. They don’t do anything particularly well other than the power play, which is just an extension of their magnificent top line. The trio of J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson (WHO WANTS TO WALK WITH ELIAS?!), and Brock Boeser has some of the best metrics in the league, and has been murder in both zones. Earlier in the year they were some of the best defensive marks in the league, though that’s slipped of late.

But beyond that, the Canucks have the common problems of not enough depth. Jake Virtanen has done what he does which is score goals you’ll never remember, and Bo Horvat is much more comfortable as a second center behind Pettersson. But beyond that there isn’t much, and that’s something the Canucks will have to improve in the near future.

There is a genuine star on the blue line in Quinn Hughes, who has 25 assists. Tyler Myers sucks, has always sucked, and will always suck, but the Canucks were hard-ons to sign him as a free agent for years so he’ll be polluting their third-pairing for the next five years. Christoper Tanev and Alex Edler are still here, though one might think moving both at the deadline will improve the Canucks long-term. But the long-term has never been their priority, and if they’re in the thick of it–given the nature of the Pacific they probably will be–they’ll never justify stripping their blue line of the two dependable veterans they have.

For the Hawks, nothing much should change. One would think Robin Lehner will continue to ride the roll he’s been on, though they won’t want Corey Crawford to go stale. Sikura has earned another game, there’s not much more he can do honestly. Maybe Koekkoek comes in for again but you’d tend to doubt it.

As stated above, the Hawks have utterly sucked in games against direct competitors at the bottom of the picture. They won’t get anywhere if they can’t change that. As we’ve said, the schedule is a little light right now. They’ve won three in a row, but they’ll need more. They need weeks of this, not days. So keep it going.

Hockey

Game #42 – Hawks vs Canucks Spotlight: The Aquilini Family And Maybe Looking Into A Mirror

By Sam Fels 1537 0

We comment on it every time the Hawks and Canucks get together of late. It’s just still so jarring how little you think of the Canucks now, given what they used to mean around here. Then again, Canucks fans probably don’t think about the Hawks much either anymore, aside from Duncan Keith. Even if the Hawks outlasted the Canucks relevance in ’14 and ’15, they’ve both faded from the scene in the past three or four years.

For the same reasons? Maybe. While it’s always fun to laugh at Jim Benning, and you should, the real obstacle in Vancouver is the Aquilino family that owns the team. They have never sanctioned a full rebuild, and strive to make the playoffs every season. There’s a feeling amongst the ownership that the fanbase would never accept a total teardown, even though most of the fanbase was screaming for one for a while now.

And perhaps that window has passed. Benning has done an excellent job of providing Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes as the building blocks of the future. There was even a nifty trade for J.T. Miller. With just the first three, you’d say that’s a great base to build a contender down the road with.

But because of the playoffs-or-fuck-you mantra from above, the Canucks are saddled with comedically bad contracts. Now, it’s Benning after all who chose those players and deals, and he gets most of the blame as he should. But he still has bosses to answer to, and they’ve sent out this directive.

Which is why the Canucks have only $30K in cap space this year. It’s why they’re dragging around Loui Eriksson, who was finished four years ago, or Antoine Roussel, or Tyler Myers. Even Jay Beagle is overpaid, as is Brandon Sutter. We could dig into the past and find more bad deals, but we’re not trying to be cruel here.

Which leaves the Canucks on a funky path. There’s some cap space next year, with only Jake Vrtanen an important piece to re-sign though how important is hard to gauge. Maybe Chris Tanev, but that’s not vital either. But they need a second line. They’ll need a long-term partner for Hughes, and it’s not going to be Tyler Myers no matter how many drugs they take to delude themselves. They probably need a second pairing. They’ll also need to either re-sign Jacob Markstrom or find a new goalie, which is going to cost a hell of a lot more than $3.6M they’re paying Markstrom now.

With Boeser, Pettersson, and Hughes, the Canucks are past doing a total rebuild. If they’re not stupid, they can buy out Eriksson or just pray that he retires early (he won’t). Another complication is that they’ve got $3M in cap-recapture penalties from Roberto Luongo retiring for another two seasons. Edler has one more year left. Sutter has one more. Beagle two. There’s some light at the end of the tunnel, but they can’t afford any more impulsive mistakes, otherwise they’ll be what they’ve been for the past five seasons, just sitting outside the playoffs with no clear direction.

But will the Aquilini’s finally show some patience? The Canucks haven’t seen the playoffs since ’15, even though that’s always been the stated goal. They have an outside shot this year, though you wouldn’t bet on it. Will they see that six or seven years without the playoffs is no different than five? Or will they go all in for more free agents next year? It feels like if they do, they won’t go anywhere again.

Hockey

Game #42 – Hawks vs. Canucks: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1319 0

Tyler Myers – May we present…

Alex Edler – We seem to be the only ones who know this, but Edler even this deep into his career still hasn’t met a hit he can’t jump his elbows into. Luckily these days he’s not mobile enough to get to most of them. A bigger villain in that cold war at the beginning of the decade than he got credit for.

Antoine Roussel – Back from injury and stealing a shit ton of money. People will realize that much like Andrew Shaw, you don’t pay a pest a ton of money because A.) their shelf-life just isn’t that long given they style and B). they may decide performing all the silliness makes less sense once they’re secure. They don’t have to prove much now.

Hockey

Game #42 – Hawks vs. Canucks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1140 0

Hawks

Notes: At least the first two periods were the best they’ve played, so you’d hope that the lineup stays the same. Sikura gave Kane’s line a jump it didn’t have with Nylander, but the front office is so panicky about Nylander that he probably comes in somewhere. Then you’d have to ask yourself how having two assists and a near 60 CF% in a game doesn’t justify staying in the lineup for Sikura…Gilbert and Maatta continue to get rocked possession-wise, but there’s little alternative now though Koekkoek would feel aggrieved…

Notes: The Canucks have won five in a row so you’d have to assume things will stay the same for them as they’ve been lineup-wise…Virtanen has three goals in his last five…Markstrom had a .927 in December, the biggest reason they’re hot…You’d be hard-pressed to find a better line than the top one, possession-wise. One of the few better is Teuvo’s line in Carolina, so go ahead and cry…

Hockey

All Along I’ve Been The Traveler

By Sam Fels 1661 0

The Hawks are halfway there. Tuesday’s win was the 41st game of the season, so it’s always a good time to assess where they are and how you’re feeling about them.

And the thing is, there’s not really much to feel about them at all. Last year at this point, they were trying out a new coach, they were woeful defensively, they were a .500 team essentially, and they didn’t look very likely for the playoffs. And now, the only difference really is that they get saves. They’re still woeful defensively, they’re basically a .500 team, they look unlikely for the playoffs. Except after another year of spinning their wheels, vitriol for management and coach is higher than it was at this time a year ago.

As I was walking the dog last night (when I do my best thinking, honestly), I considered what were to happen if the Hawks actually made a fist of getting into the playoffs again as they did for a couple minutes there last year, and if they somehow snuck in. Barely sneaking into the playoffs is a good thing for teams on the rise or trying to build something. For example, the Avs scraped in the past two years, and look at them now. The Canes snuck in last year, though they had been underlying a much better team than that for years. Still, you can see the arc on them.

But the Hawks aren’t on an arc. They’ve told us there is no plan. Whether they somehow goof a #8 seed or not, would you really feel like they’re on an upward trajectory? Or that they just somehow floated to the top of a collection of very unimpressive teams? Teams whose endgame is merely getting into the playoffs are jobbers. They’re the Brooklyn Brawlers of the NHL. It’s not a jumping off point.

The argument would be that moving forward, the growth of DeBrincat, Strome, Dach, and Boqvist is what’s going to push the Hawks beyond this current level. But that has to be canceled out by whatever decline is in store for Keith, Toews, and Kane (if the last one ever declines, that is), as well as whatever cap casualties are coming (Saad, Murphy, maybe both).

The Hawks skipped the step where you have a bunch of exciting prospects just under the surface and waiting to join the ranks. There’s no one in Rockford who is projected to change the course much. Ian Mitchell isn’t having as good of a season in Denver as last year, and it’s still a wonder if he’ll sign at all. There is little at the college or juniors level. Basically, Dach and Boqvist are here and that’s it.

Once you start digging into the numbers, it’s not much better. The Hawks had a 48.6 CF% last year at this point. It’s 47.2% now. They gave up 59.2 attempts at even per 60 last year. It’s 60.4 now. They had an expected goals percentage of 45.7% last year at the halfway point. It’s 45.3% now. There’s been a marginal improvement in xGA/60, from 2.7 to 2.6. No one’s going to submit something to a poetry slam about that. The only thing the Hawks do better is kill penalties (and that’s actually a really good thing) and get saves. And the Hawks have capped the number of attempts and expected goals they surrender on the kill.

But that’s hardly enough. Who would you say has taken a huge leap from last year? It’s not DeBrincat, who’s been about the same but can’t get the puck to go in. Strome has improved a touch, but the 61 points he’s on track for isn’t a huge leap from the 59 he put up last year combined between being a Yote and a Hawk. And the sad thing is those are the only two to consider. Kubalik, Dach, and Boqvist are all rookies, so there’s nothing to leap from yet. One has been great, one has flashed at times, and one looks a bigger project than we might have thought that isn’t even being developed correctly yet.

And probably worse yet, I don’t know what the Hawks want out of this second half. What they should want is merely to see Dach and Boqvist show that they can be not just contributors in this league, but actual stars. They should trade everything that’s not bolted down, including Saad and both goalies. If that causes some ruckus amongst the three core players left, deal with it. Might be time to move on anyway. That’s how the NHL works now. Almost no one gets to finish where they started. Crosby and Ovechkin might, but their teams have been run better to keep them competitive or more. Come back to this in three years for both. The list of stars who had to move on in the back-nine of their careers is a long one.

The Hawks need to use this second half to actually put a plan in place. My fear is that they’ll use it to desperately claw at a playoff spot that they won’t get, but that would be some sort of figment validation for them. And you know, if by some miracle they did sneak in with Robin Lehner on a heater, they could make life difficult for someone I guess for six or seven games. But that would give them all the wrong lessons and the wrong things to champion.

The Hawks need more spins, via draft picks and prospects. Even if Dach and Boqvist max out, it’s not enough. There’s no winger to get excited about in the whole system, unless you squint and count Kubalik who is probably more a contributor in the long run. Is there another d-man? Especially if Mitchell won’t sign? Maybe you only get 3rd and fourth round picks and B- and C-level prospects for what you can move (you could do better than that for Lehner though). But every team needs a little luck like when those become something much better than forecast. More tries, the more chance you find one or two.

The malaise amongst the fanbase isn’t because the glory days are gone or the Hawks are bad. It’s because it feels like nothing is moving at all.

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview: Drop The Ball

By Sam Fels 1435 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 17-17-6   Flames 20-16-5

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flamesnation.ca

Cal and Gary would probably be way down the list of NHL cities you’d choose to spend NYE in, but the Hawks don’t get much choice as that’s what the schedule says. It’s one of two sojourns they have to make to Western Canada due to the utterly fucked nature of the NHL schedule, as they’ll kick off 2020 in Vancouver. Somewhat symbolic given what those trips used to mean in the first half of the decade and now don’t mean shit except to the few lunatics who still want to boo Duncan Keith. But we’ll get to that Thursday. Tonight, the Hawks will deal with one of the more confusing teams in the West.

The Flames were supposed to be amongst the glitterati. They did post the most points in the conference last year, and basically returned the same team minus Mike Smith and his amazing powers to turn everything he touches into barf. They had a solid backup this time around in Cam And Magic Talbot to back up Big Save Dave Rittich. They didn’t really add much to it, but steps forward from Oliver Kylington (and his weirdly pronounced name) and Rasmus Andersson were supposed to take pressure of the top of the defense. They still had a young, dynamic forward corps and depth.

And it all just kind of has been…there.

It’s turned around from earlier in the year, as the Flames were way out of a playoff spot to start but are now in one. But no one is reaching the heights of last year. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are dealing with SH% problems as well as possession problems. Mark Giordano may simply have been broken by Nathan MacKinnon in the playoffs last year, and he’s also 36. And when he’s not very good, TJ Brodie isn’t good at all. Matthew Tkachuk and his gaping maw haven’t been as good away from Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik, though he’s hardly been bad.

What the team is really suffering is the NBA Jam guy constantly screaming, “CAN’T BUY A BUCKET!” They have the fourth-worst SH% as a team overall, which has negated their more than acceptable goaltending. They aren’t creating a wealth of chances (21st in xGF/60) but you’d still expect them to do better than over 7% of finding the net. If that rebounds at all, the Flames should comfortably get back to the playoffs and probably pass the Coyotes and Oilers to do it.

They’ve also had the off-ice shenanigans with Bill Peters being outed as a scumbag and the switch to Geoff Ward. That seemed to alleviate some things but not all, as they’re 2-3-1 in the last six. It’s a team that just hasn’t really done anything that well so far this year, and until their top line starts to act like one, that might be the case all season. Lucky for them, their division is so bad they can just sort of float to or near the top.

For the Hawks, you wouldn’t expect too many changes tonight. Possibly Olli Maatta to come back in but they’ve been loathe to change a winning squad so we’ll see. Lehner looks poised to take the lion’s share of the starts the next little while, as he’s just playing better.

This has not been a friendly opponent for the Hawks of late. They’ve lost their last six against them, not beating them since the ’17-’18 season. Tends to be the case with teams that have a lot of speed and play like it, which the Flames at least used to do. The possession-dominant ways of Peters have gone away, as they’re only middling in that sense now. Giordano’s fade has something to do with that, and Hanifin is the only player to really improve from last year.

As we keep saying, if the Hawks want to make anything of this season it has to be right now. The schedule is somewhat kind, they’ve played better in the last two (at least most of them) and so this is the time to get on a roll. But then, we say that a lot, don’t we?

Note: I may be on the Twitter feed for part of this, or not at all. And any recap will be in the morning, if any of us are in any condition to watch this thing tonight. You know how it goes. 

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames Spotlight: This Is Jezebel In Hell

By Sam Fels 1199 0

It’s been a stuttering season for the Flames, who only recently rejoined the playoff spots in the Pacific when that should have been an automatic before the season. They also had to deal with the little side-story of their coach turning out to be a racist gasbag and moving on from him in the middle of the season and suddenly. And that’s certainly helped them.

But this team has had trouble scoring, and a big reason is their first line just hasn’t been very good so far this year. And that starts with Johnny Gaudreau.

Playing Calgary doesn’t lend itself to immense popularity or awareness, given that it’s where Canada goes to ranch and shovel horseshit. So you might not realize that Gaudreau put up 99 points for the team that did amass the most points in the West last year. That came after he racked up 84 the season before, and established himself as the main scoring threat for what was considered a young and exciting team ready to establish itself around the championship picture for a bit.

Hasn’t been nearly as rosy this year. Johnny Hockey only has 30 points in 41 games, and metrically it’s a much uglier picture. He and running buddy Sean Monahan have been getting run over possession-wise all season, with a 45.9 xG% and an in-the-red Corsi number. They used to regularly be in the mid-50s in both categories once they started playing together.

Individually, Monahan has seen drops across the board. His shots are down from the past two seasons per game, as are his attempts. The tempting thing to do is to point to the cratered SH% and blame that for all his scoring woes, but it’s not that simple. Gaudreau simply isn’t getting the chances he used to. His expected-goal individually is down, and his scoring-chances and high-danger scoring-chances per game are way down. Quite simple, Gaudreau isn’t getting anywhere near the net.

Gaudreau is also taking far more penalties than before and not generating as many takeaways. Some of this is a product of not having the puck as much. But it also suggests a player who’s not working as hard as he used to. Gaudreau’s outrageous skill-level will cover a multitude of sins, and he can look like he’s taking it easy out there when it is just that easy for him. But this has gone a little beyond that, and it hasn’t abated with the coaching change.

There were even whispers in the Calgary media earlier in the year about the Flames seeing what the market would be for Gaudreau, which is probably patently ridiculous. This is an elite-level scorer at just 26 and signed for a reasonable $6.7M for the next two years, given that he can give you 90 points in a season or more. But still, something is off here.

The Flames have too many pieces in place to consider moving Gaudreau, which would constitute something of a restructuring. The defense is a touch old and Rasmus Andersson or Oliver Kylington haven’t really shown they’re going to take over for Mark Giordano as he declines, and maybe that’s the fear. Maybe it’s just one of those year. But Gaudreau is the type of player you’d struggle to ever get equal value for in a trade, especially with that contract.

Gaudreau can start a turnaround by getting to the middle of the ice more instead of his current Getzlaf-impression. The Flames hold the last wildcard spot and you’d think they’re going to have to fight off the Preds for it, as well as some others. But the Coyotes should make for easy catching, as well as the Oilers in their own division. They can do that if Johnny Hockey comes back, instead of this Johnny Floaty that he’s been.

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, and Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1069 0

Milan Lucic – By god he found another home. It’s amazing how many teams are willing to take a chance on a player because they might provide “grit,” the most nebulous and overvalued skill in any sport. Lucic still can’t move, still can’t score, and no one gives a shit about his antics because he’s such a boon on the ice to the opponent. And he’s murdering the Flames’ cap just as he did up the road in EdMo. This guy’s been an albatross for five years. You have to almost be impressed. But hey, maybe after a whistle he can spear a guy in the nuts. That’ll get the Flames up the standings.

Whichever of Keith Tkachuk’s Garbage Sons Is Here – Not that there’s any difference. They all run their mouth and start shit all the time. But when you watch them do it you know this is just an extension of when they would go throw things at homeless people with their other private school friends. They’re just spoiled rich kids who never got told to shut up or got the shit kicked out of them because of who dad was, and got all the best training in hockey because he was rich. You know the Tkachuk’s, they just have a different name.

Not Using The Retros All The Time – The old look at home is great. Then the Flames debuted their retro whites this year, and it’s clearly what they should be wearing all the time. More teams need to learn that having black as a lining or a color, unless it’s a main color of the team–only deadens the look in HD and live. The Hawks only have the stripes on sleeves and waist which is why their jerseys still pop.. Thank god the Flames are going to these full-time next year. Enough with the superfluous piping and stripes and whatnot.