Everything Else

The Avs are one of the more colorless outfits in the league, behind their top line at least (do we actually miss Patrick Roy?), so let’s take the opportunity to bitch about a Denver icon. There is no idol we can’t throw stones at repeatedly.

There was a time when John Elway was one of the cooler athletes around. John Elway is what Rex Grossman would have been if he had feet and was tall. Elway was blessed with a bazooka as a right arm, told Jim Irsay to go fuck himself, and ended up as a Bronco for a city and organization that desperately needed any marker whatsoever. Then Elway started chucking the ball anywhere and everywhere at high speeds when he wasn’t charging out of the pocket simply to get a nice breeze going through is admittedly amazingly flowing locks. It was utter chaos, but it worked because just about no one else was doing it and in 80s football it was super easy to confuse players who were already massively concussed and coked out,  as well as defensive coordinators who were no less than 78-years-old and ate their own snot.

Elway got to three Super Bowls with rodeo clowns as receivers and a defense bereft of anyone with legs, and nearly sank the entire city of Cleveland into Lake Erie himself, which pretty much everyone agrees would have been a great arrangement for everyone involved. Of course, the Broncos got smashed up to an unrecognizable goop by the Giants, Niners, and Redskins. And then we had to deal with the the whole debate about whether someone like Elway could win a Super Bowl, essentially playing Tecmo Bowl on an NFL field.

And then he did, but he did it by just turning around and handing it off and never throwing the ball more than seven feet (thankfully, he did save us from a second Favre Super Bowl). He became what he was supposed to stand against. He became what we abhorred, and meanwhile all the grumbling old football men shook their heads in approval about how Elway “had finally learned.” He went from youthful exuberance and fun and surprise and illogical success to a buttoned-down corporate stooge. Elway is a baby boomer’s wet dream.

Of course, he was buying every goddamn car dealership from Nebraska to Salt Lake City to carry out the metaphor into real life, and has more money than The Pentaverate. Which he leveraged that into the Broncos presidency, where he’s essentially made baffling football decision after another (this is the team that drafted Tebow and played him, remember), but no one cares because they won a Super Bowl after signing one of the three best QBs of all time and somehow lucking into Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and most importantly having Cam Newton turn into urine. Since then they haven’t played a playoff game and just traded for Joe Flacco. Dude’s a moron, but he’ll be in his position forever because he’s ungodly rich and no Denver resident would speak ill of him for fear of being put in the stocks.

Meanwhile, he’s been backing whatever corpse they prop up in front of him that’s Republican and spouting more bullshit beyond that. Again, it doesn’t matter. Elway could shoot a teenage girl in front of Union Station in Denver and piss on her corpse and he’d still get applause.

Fuck John Elway.

 

Game #62 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Notes: IMPORTANT: Corsica is still down so we were not able to update players’ individual xGF%. We hope to have another way soon…the top line has been split up to try and even out their secondary scoring problem. They’ve won their last two by a combined 10-1 since doing it, something is clicking…Soderberg had three points in their last game, which is good because he had gone six scoreless before…Strangely this is ThreeYaksAndADog’s first 30-goal season…Boy they don’t want Barrie and Graves anywhere near the defensive zone, huh?…Varlamov shut out the Knights and held the Jets to one in his last two starts, so he will get the nod tonight…

Notes: The defensive outlook is a guess. Dahlstrom was sick, Seabrook won’t play, and Jokharju was recalled but it wasn’t clear if he would play. We say let him play and grab the brass ring. It’s what Dahlstrom did, after all. It’s not like there’s a better solution…Caligula is back in after missing most of the last game after getting a Toews stick in the eye…But boy, Saad sure did look good up there, huh? He’s been creating his own shot of his late, which is a new trick…Sikura continues to do well in limited, sheltered work, with a 62% share against Detroit. You feel if he gets one goal he might get a few…

 

Game #62 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

All stats from NaturalStatTrick.com, hockey-reference.com, and NHL.com.

Since going 10-2-0 in the last 12, there’s been more swagger and flexing about the Hawks’s playoff prospects. If the Hawks win tonight against the Avs and Sunday against the Stars—two of four teams directly above them in the wild card race—they can more firmly entrench themselves in a wild card spot. If nothing else, this run has been fun.

But as we’ve talked about ad nauseum, none of the numbers flesh out a team that you would think should even be sniffing the playoffs. Their current-22 goal differential would be the worst among playoff teams by far, and it’s an improvement over what it was earlier. Since December 18, which is when the power play first started taking off, the Hawks have had a +13 goal differential, which is pretty good. Prior to that, it was -35. In four of their last five, they’ve allowed at least four goals, including four to Detroit and seven (fucking seven) to Ottawa.

Even if you only look at the stats beginning around the time when everything started getting hot (December 18; 16-7-3 since then), shit isn’t pretty.

  • They’re second worst in 5v5 CF% since that time, ahead of only New Jersey.
  • Their high-danger CF% of 39.70 is deadass last in the league, behind even the woeful Kings (42.36) and Ducks (43.97).
  • Their scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) is worst in the league at 43.33.
  • Their shots on goal for percentage (SF%) is second worst in the league at 46.31, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers, who are less a hockey team and more a Big Brothers of America for adults that Connor McDavid is not allowed to opt out of.
  • In that time, Delia and Ward have posted a .920 SV% between the two of them at 5v5, which is excellent albeit unsustainable (given the horrid shot totals), and .908 overall, which is fine.

These are just a few of the stats that indicate that the Hawks should be a lottery team rather than in the thick of a playoff run.

So why the fuck is there a whisper from none other than Elliotte Friedman that the Hawks could go after Artemi Panarin as a rental?

At the top, let’s be clear: Friedman himself admits that that would make absolutely no sense whatsoever and it’s just what he heard. Anyone who’s watched this team since the middle of December can tell you that the Hawks aren’t hurting for offense. Since December 18, the Hawks have the best PP% by far and the second-most total goals (105 vs. the Sharks’s 111). They’ll have three 30-goal scorers (maybe four if Saad keeps his pace up) and likely two 40-goal scorers in Top Cat and Garbage Dick. If anything has worked, it’s been the offense.

This infatuation with Artemi Panarin, especially as the deadline approaches, is the most asinine thing I’ve seen since Stan Bowman signed Brandon Manning to a 2-year, $2.25 million per deal last summer.

Generally speaking, I get the desire. Panarin was awesome while he was with the Hawks. He was fun on the ice and in 2015–16 helped launch the Hawks to the best PP% they’ve ever had since The Core conglomerated. He’s currently on pace for 80–85 points, which would make an already dangerous Top 6 for the Hawks even more deadly. As Sam has said (and I’m starting to admit myself), the Hawks lost that Panarin–Saad trade, even if Saad is still good. But what can Panarin do for them on offense right now that Alex DeBrincat isn’t already doing? I get that you can never have enough scorers, but at what cost?

Assume Columbus is willing to send Panarin to Chicago for the right package. What does that look like? You have to figure DeBrincat is absolutely in there. They’ll likely want top-end prospects, like Strome, Boqvist, Beaudin, Harju, and (not or) Barratt. Maybe you can convince them to swap Boqvist or Harju for Gustafsson; the specifics aren’t terribly important. What is relevant is that if you want Panarin at the deadline, there’s no way you’re getting him and keeping DeBrincat and at least two of your top prospects.

That would be moving backward or, at best, standing still, because DeBrincat has been close to if not better than Panarin at scoring this year. DeBrincat has more goals than Panarin, both total (33 vs. 24) and on the power play (10 vs. 6), with just five more games played. He has more power play points total than Panarin (21 vs. 14). Panarin bests him in assists (43 vs. 28) and total points (67 vs. 61). Although Panarin’s possession numbers are pristine, if you think those would carry over in Chicago, then I’m the wallet inspector.

Panarin would be a fantastic piece on a team that isn’t allowing 35+ shots per game. As fun as this run is, it’s exceedingly unlikely that the Hawks can outscore their defensive woes against teams with real goaltenders and defensive schemes, as we’ve seen in the losses against Columbus and Boston. And that’s all Panarin would really provide: a hope that he can outscore the mistakes the blue line constantly makes. Are you willing to bet DeBrincat plus prospects, picks, and probably more on a run that, in any other year, would have the Hawks out of a playoff spot by 10 points or more? I’m not. This playoff run is fun, but you don’t go chasing Panarin for it, especially not for the price he’d likely command in top-line talent and prospects.

Once this Russian Roulette playoff farce ends, we’ll have all the time in the world to talk about signing Panarin as a free agent. I’ll preface those discussions with a hardline “No, thank you,” at least until the Hawks have exhausted all options at a top-4 D-man, whether that’s through a signing (EK65), a trade (Dougie, Hampus), or miracle development from Boqvist and Beaudin.

This team is still closer to bad than good, and Panarin doesn’t move the needle enough, especially not now. They need a top-4 D-man or two. They either need Delia to step back up, Crawford to step back in, or continue to get a .920+ from Ward. None of those things involve Panarin. So, ride this out with what you’ve got, try to trade guys like Artie and Hayden, and if the NHL’s blob of mediocrity pushes the Hawks above it all and into the playoffs like the overripe zit they are, that’s gravy.

The confidence is fun. The swagger is fun. This whole run is fun. But it’s all in the context of how awful October, November, and most of December were. When you look at the difference between then and now, it’s easy to mistake a cock ring for a 36-inch chain.

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Penguins – 6pm

2016 rematch and all that blah blah blah. Could be again in 2019 blah blah blah. Pretty soon I’m just gonna break into Kesha. Anyway, if there is going to be a Final rematch between these two the Penguins are going to need a head-out-of-ass-otomy. They still hold the last spot in the Metro, but Columbus is only two points behind and that scratch they both feel is the all-dancing all-singing Hurricanes clapping away on their ass. Somehow they’re on the brink of losing touch with the Islanders, who are five points up with a game in hand. Evgeni Malkin seems to be fucked in the head, no one is scoring except for Guentzel and Crosby, and it all just looks a bit off. That said, they’ve piled up four wins in their last five over dregs like New Jersey, the Rangers, the Flyers, and Oilers. They’re always there to help! The Sharks still can’t get a save but are awesome otherwise and are like three days out from only the biggest decision in their franchise history. Good times!

Second Screen Viewing

Blues vs. Stars – 7:30

The league’s hottest roadshow sweeps down to Texas, as winners of 11 in a row St. Louis is here to cause the Stars CEO to swear some more. Now that the Wild have sunk without a trace or peep and appear to be content to do so even farther, the Stars are next up on the hit list for the bumbling rabble tripping over itself toward the playoffs. The Stars are only two points ahead of the Hawks and Avs, and with the Blues in town followed by a home game with the suddenly ravenous Canes and then backing that up the next day with a trip here, they could find themselves in the “What The Fuck?” pile right quick. That four-game trip that starts here Sunday also goes to Vegas and Nashville, so yeah, they could be in up to the knee. This one has the most interest for Hawks fans.

Other Games

Capitals vs. Leafs – 6pm

Hurricanes vs. Panthers – 6pm

Senators vs. Devils – 6pm

Wild vs. Rangers – 6pm

Flyers vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Sabres vs. Lightning – 6:30

Kings vs. Predators – 7pm

Islanders vs. Oilers – 8pm

Coyotes vs. Canucks – 9pm

Everything Else

Piggybacking off our look at Patrick Kane’s season, it’s always fun to see how scoring has jumped up in the league this year. By now you know this, but let’s add some detail to it.

Last year, only three players broke 100 points, topping out with Connor McDavid’s 108. This year, nine players are on track to hit the century mark. As we discussed with Kane, he and Kucherov are on the way to over 110 points, No one’s cracked that since Henrik Sedin in 2010 (which totally went well for him after that). Last year, no one topped 50 goals. This year, five guys have a chance at it, with Ovechkin and Kane being almost locks and Skinner, Draisaitl, and Point having a chance if they get on their horse.

Everyone would love to know the reason, and it seems pretty obvious. But follow my work and we’ll get there in the end. Where I’m kind of fascinated is that there are 13 players this season who have played over 30 games that are shooting over 20%. Last year there were four. So you see where this going.

The league-save percentage has dropped from .912 last year to .908 this year, which is the biggest drop seen since the season before and after the lockout. But as we know, back then there was a 30% increase in power plays, which led to a lower SV% simply because teams were killing off nearly six penalties per game (what?!). This year has actually seen a decrease in power play opportunities per team, from 3.04 last year to 3.03 this year. There’s basically no difference.

Which is why we don’t see a huge spike in power play production. Ok, Kucherov is in a class by himself with 39 power play points already, with the next highest total being 31. Last year, two players finished with more than 40 power play points (Kessel and Wheeler). Kucherov is obviously going to do so unless he has a stroke (and even then), and beyond that really only his teammates Stamkos and Point have a good shot at coming along for the ride.

So it seems most of the improvement is at evens. Last year, McDavid led the league in ES points with 84, and no one else had more than 66 (yeah ok he probably should have won the Hart again, huh?). This year, McDavid, Kane, and Kucherov are averaging just about an even-strength point per game, and a further four are on track to score more than 70 even-strength points per game.

So basically the argument comes down to whether it’s the new goalie pads leading to more holes for the league’s best snipers to find, or the crack down on slashing to open up more space and make it easier for players to get where they want to go. The fact that teams are averaging less shots per game this season than last (31.3 to 31.8 last year) would lean it more toward the goalies. And the fact that attempts per team, and scoring chances per team are a shade/tick down from last year would point to that as well. However, high-danger chances per team have gone up from 10.6 per 60 to 10.9. It’s about a 3% rise.

Which doesn’t sound like a lot. Teams averaged 9-10 high-danger chances per game last year, which means getting another one this year just about every three games, which if you carry it out it is another four to five goals per season.

So yeah, it’s the pads. But hey, it’s fun!

 

Everything Else

Yes.

Oh, I probably should go into it a little more, huh? Fair. This isn’t an MVP or Not-MVP discussion. I’m frankly tired of them and they don’t usually add up to any sort of logic. As I’ve said repeatedly, to me it should just be a “Player Of The Year” award, and on that status it’s really hard to not give it to Nikita Kucherov because he’s going to have a 130+ points and that’s stupid. He’s a big reason he plays on the best team in hockey, the best team in years, and he shouldn’t be punished for it. So let’s turn the talk.

What you might be watching is the best season a Hawk has ever had. The team record for points in a season is 131 by Denis Savard in ’87-’88. You might not have known that, and honestly I had to look it up. It’s not a celebrated number around here, which is weird, and might have to do something with it not being held by Eddie Olczyk and thus can’t be proclaimed through his own megaphone what an accomplishment it is because he did it. So yeah, 131.

And Kane is on a pace to get almost there without any adjustment for era or atmosphere, which we’ll get to. Right now he’s no his way to 125 points, by far a career-high, and the most any Hawks has managed since Savard. No Hawk has cleared 110 points since Savard’s record-breaker, and the most since is Roenick’s 107 in ’93-’94. Clearly, no one’s seen this in a very long time around these parts.

So let’s try and adjust for the different environments Savard was in and Kane is in. When Savard put up his 131, teams averaged 3.7 goals per game. This year, even with the bump in scoring, teams are averaging 3.06 goals per game. This is pretty crude, but we’ll try it: Savard averaged 1.59 points per game, hence he was a part, either scoring or assisting, of 42% of the goals per game. Kane is averaging 1.53 points per game, which means he’s a part of exactly half the goals taking place for the Hawks each game. So if Kane were zapped back to 1987, he would be averaging 1.85 points per game, which over a full 82 would equal out to 151 points. So yeah, there you go.

If Kane were to somehow get even more nuclear somewhere around here, he would have an outside shot at the club record of 58 goals (and Garbage Dick taking a record from the Drunk, Wife-Punchy Nazi would be a pretty wonderful symbol for the Hawks organization). Right now he’s on course for 51, and he’ll be the first Hawk to get to 50 since Roenick did it in 1993. But again, different scoring environment. And it’s actually a better scoring atmosphere now than it was in ’68-’69 when Hull put up 58, which is really shocking because goalies then were just newspaper guys they pulled in off the street and threw pads on. Obviously, Kane would score 439 goals if he were transported back to 1968. Let’s leave it at that.

Kane’s also likely to set a career-high in power play points. It’s 37 in his MVP year, and he’s already at 28 now. He’s at least on pace to match it. Where Kane is really making a difference is that he’s on pace to shatter his personal record for shots in a year, as he’s averaging over four per game for the first time in his career. In all situations Kane is averaging 10.8 shots/per 60, and the 15.7 per 60 on the power play are the highest since he won the Hart. His 8.91 per 60 at evens is actually lower than it was last year, so that’s where he’s making up the ground.

However you break it down, this is the best season Kane has had, and it’s at 30. Which is just ridiculous. Only he and Sidney Crosby are above 30 among the top-10 scorers in the league (Stamkos is 29). While he may still represent a special kind of scumbag, what he’s doing on the ice hasn’t been seen in this city in a very long time, and very well might not again. But the way he’s going, he might just do it all again next year.

Everything Else

This game is a perfect example of why the Blackhawks aren’t actually a good team, despite fancy numbers like wins and point streaks. They blew a three-goal lead in the third against the flotsam that is the Detroit Red Wings, or really, because the two good players on the Wings were able to score multiple times against the entire Hawks lineup. The Hawks’ possession, shots, and general defensive effort were awful, and had they been playing a team that was marginally functional, they probably would have lost. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks started strong for the most part. They had a few shots given up really early, but ended up taking control of the first period and jumping out to 3-1 lead. Anisimov caught Jimmy Howard being lazy and dumb and scored on a wraparound, Saad torched Niklas Kronwall—whose level of speed can only be generously called glacial—and scored his 21st goal, and then Dylan Strome had a patient, gorgeous pass to Top Cat who buried it. Their possession at evens wasn’t stellar (exactly 50 CF%) but they had the numbers that counted.

–They started to take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal in the second, even though Kane increased his point streak and extended the lead to 4-1. By the third period they were in full-on blowing-the-game mode, despite being barely above water in possession (52.3 CF%). Dylan Larkin and Andreas Athanasiou pretty much scored at will, and fucking Anthony Mantha had assists on all four goals. This points to the fact that Coach Cool Youth Pastor still has to either get the team to listen to him or take him seriously, or at least give half a fuck, when things are going well.

Drake Caggiula got one of his eyes gouged out by Toews’ stick in the first, and he didn’t return the rest of the game. Now, I’ve shit-talked about him plenty, and I still believe he’s basking in some reflected glory by playing on a line with two Hall of Fame’rs having fuck you years, but honestly this isn’t a good thing in any way. Regardless of the reasoning he fit in well on the top line and with Kampf hurt we don’t need to lose any more forwards. Granted Brandon Saad replaced him, and he certainly deserves to be on the top line, but this isn’t the way you want to see it happen.

–The Hawks managed just 20 shots on goal…but hey, they gave up fewer than 40!

–Relatedly, Gustav Forsling looked particularly dreadful tonight. He was constantly standing around not knowing what to do or where to go on most of the Wings’ goals. He finished the night with a 37.5 CF%, and while no one was exactly sparkling with possession tonight, even Slater Koekkoek had over 50%. He was painful to watch and unfortunately I imagine most teams and their moronic GMs are noticing that too.

Cam Ward did make some good saves throughout the night, but he still finished with an .886 SV%. I’m not even going to sit here saying Delia would have been better because who the hell knows these days, but while Ward wasn’t solely to blame for giving up the lead, he never inspired much confidence either.

–Mike Tirico did the play by play for the first time and was perfectly suited to it. He handled Eddie well, and we fortunately were spared Pierre McGuire doing something idiotic or tone deaf like reminding him not to be a fan.

At the end of the day, the Hawks got the two points and this week remains interesting. So all’s well that ends well, but I gotta say that giving up a three-goal lead to a collection of basement-dwellers doesn’t exactly bode well for this playoff push, or whatever this may be. Still, it’s a win, so onward and upward…

 

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 25-26-9   Red Wings 23-29-8

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN (with Mike “Handsy Hands” Tirico calling his first ever hockey game)

THEY MAKE PORNO MOVIES THAT START THAT WAY TOO: Winging It In Motown

I guess pretty soon we’re going to have to replace the train-wreck picture. Is there a way to represent “no plan but a process?” We’ll find out. Because here’s something for ya: If the Hawks win tonight and the Jets beat the Avs, the Hawks will hold the final wild card spot. Fuck, they’ll only be two points behind the Stars for the first wildcard spot, and they just happen to wash up here on Sunday. The Avs do on Friday. As stupid and nonsensical as it may be, these are actual big games. If the Hawks were to win the next three, including two over direct competitors, they aren’t just in the playoff race. They’re firmly entrenched. Perhaps even slight favorites.

They’ll also only be .500. And even a win tonight would only see them seven points ahead of this twisted heap of metal that is the Red Wings. They’re only two points ahead of the Ducks, who are unquestionably a fertilizer collection of a hobo.

#EndHockey

Anyway, that’s the scene, and just about every time you’ve expected the floor to drop out from the Hawks they just keep finding a way to stick around. Either loss to the Bruins or Jackets could have easily sent them to a tailspin. Especially as both were followed by piss poor starts against the Devils and Senators, And yet they recovered. Yes, they recovered against the Devils and Senators, which essentially is the hockey interpretation of my crazy, 30-pound husky/spitz mix knocking over a toddler out of sheer excitement (and she’s done this). But whatever. They recovered. And now it’s at a point where you have to say the Hawks can’t really lose to the Wings. It would be a bad loss.

So here we are. Surface details: Cam Ward will start, as it appears Collin Delia has played himself into waiting around until Corey Crawford is healthy and he can be packed back off to Rockford. His confidence could probably use it. Brendan Perlini is sick, might not play, letting Chris Kunitz back in. Brent Seabrook will play, which will assuredly tighten up the defense that was more welcoming than a Vegas buffet. Ha, that’s funny. See what I did there?

As for the Wings, they still suck. Since losing to the Hawks even though they outplayed them, they’ve beaten the Predators and Senators, but lost to the Flyers twice in a home-and-home. They’re just waiting for Monday, when they can eject their flotsam for picks and fringe prospects, and fill those vacated spots with more promising kids. There’s talk talk that last spring’s top pick, Filip Zadina, will come up after the deadline to take Nyquist’s spot. Stuff like that.

Unlike last time, the Hawks will get Jimmy Howard instead of Jonathan Bernier. Howard will be auditioning for the Sharks or maybe Flames or Jackets as trade bait. He’s a free agent in the summer, the Wings are going to have to have a longer term plan in net than him, and he’s actually been pretty good this year. He’s got playoff experience, and this might be a chip Wings cash in for more than they probably should. His .913 is certainly an improvement on what those teams mentioned are getting right now.

Other differences from 10 days ago is that Trevor Daley is back with his chaw and wayward sense of direction and logic. He joins something named Filip Hronek on the third-pairing. Justin “Let Out The” Abdelkader (cuz the revolution’s here and you know it’s right) has been punted to the bottom-six where he’s always belonged, allowing Nephew Bertuzzi to be with Dylan Larkin. Other than that, there’s not much to report.

Again, if the Hawks keep Larkin and Andreas Anathasiou (I can’t wait another dayyyyyyy) on a leash, you’re three-quarters of the way to beating this outfit. There’s not a lot of depth here, the blue line is slow, and when the Hawks were fully engaged last time this was a team they actually looked significantly faster than. Keep that up, and suddenly the weekend is awfully interesting.

 

Game #61 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

It almost seems to perfect. You wonder if Ken Holland even sees it coming. He has to, right? Maybe it was always the plan (not a process). But Steve Yzerman resigned as GM of the Lightning, right before the Wings rebuild is supposed to pivot. They’ll likely have yet another top-five pick to play with. And the patience with Holland seems to have run out as the Wings embark on a third-straight playoff-less season. It’s clear change needs to be made, and when a former team legend who just happened to build one of the best teams of the era is waiting in the suburbs twiddling his thumbs, you don’t have to be John Nash to put it all together.

If that’s how it goes down, then this will be the last Hawks-Wings game with Ken Holland overlooking from a suite. And the next one without him will be the first in over 22 years. That’s a hell of a run, but it’s a lot spottier than you might think.

First off, Holland took over in between the Wings first two Cup wins from Jimmy Devellano. It’s not like there was a lot of building to be done back then. And the Wings were known for splashing all of Mike Illitch’s cash, so it wasn’t like he had to unearth much. Much like Alabama recruiting, he just had to throw open the door, leave a trail of cash, and the top available players would come sprinting. Holland had added Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, Chris Chelios to the 2002 version that won a third Cup, but again, it’s not like these were hidden gems that only Holland could find (fucking Anders Eriksson).

Where Holland got most of his esteem was in the Wings’ European scouting, which led to him drafting Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Johan Franzen in the head-to-the-shitter portion of the draft. And clearly, that’s not something you just sneeze at. It also appears to have been just a huge slice of luck, which any draft requires. Because since then, the core of the Wings rotted out while there was nothing on the edges to take its place.

Since 2004 when Holland took Johan Franzen, and they were both unfortunate to have his career cut short by concussions, the  NHL-ers that Holland has managed to find are Jimmy Howard, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Brendan Smith, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan, Calle Jarnkrok, Petr Mrazek, Thomas Jurco, Andreas Anathasiou, Anthony Mantha, Matthias Janmark, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Dylan Larkin. How many true difference-makers are there? Larkin for sure, maybe Howard when he was younger? You’d really have to squint. Anathasiou has a chance, and maybe, maybe, if you really wheel-pose it out Nyquist. Sure, only recently has Holland had top-10 picks, but if he were the genius everyone would have you believe he’d find a late-round gem again, right?

Zetterberg and Datsyuk and Lidstrom got old, and even with all that time Holland had no one in place to take over. Combine that with some utterly woeful free agent signings. There was the bewildering fascination with Todd Bertuzzi. What is Frans Nielsen doing here? Justin Abdelkader was extended into the Earth’s heat-death. What did he think Trevor Daley was going to do? Steve Ott even made an appearance.

That doesn’t make Holland one of the league’s worst GMs, or anything close. Most GMs who achieve the success he can claim in the NHL were either parachuted right into it, got lucky a couple times, or most likely both (say Stan, what are you doing here?). It’s just been years since the Wings were relevant, and Holland had a ton of time to find the next generation and couldn’t.

Yzerman will be parachuted in, though. He’ll have Larkin, Anathasiou, Zadina, Rasmussen, and a few other prospects below the surface. He’ll have the NHL probably jonesing at the chance to rig Jack Hughes to stay home in Michigan. Perhaps Holland will leave them with parting gifts he’ll never get to enjoy and go without the credit he would deserve. Which would probably cancel out all the credit he got for basically pulling a Homer.

 

Game #61 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built