Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite
Notes: Crawford might get both starts this weekend, as Colliton makes one last death lunge at this season being anything. Seems a tall task for a player who has missed so much time and only recently came back. This could get messy…Anyone else notice the Hawks don’t have a goal from a forward since he switched Saad and Kane? Anyone?…Saad was a monster on Thursday and almost did it himself. He’s going to have to…We don’t know what the defensive shuffle will be this weekend, and honestly, we don’t care…
Notes: We can’t predict what the Avs lines will look like. They dressed seven d-men last out and the Rantanen got hurt and his questionable for the weekend, so this is a guess. Nieto and Landeskog are definitely out…Rantanen has slowed up a bit, with only 13 points in his last 24 games…Barrie has been hot, with eight points in his last 10 games…Grubauer has been lights-out in March, with a .968 in seven appearances…
Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Predators vs. Jets – Saturday, 6pm
It’s hard to say two teams over 90 points are having trouble getting out of their own way, but it feels like both of these teams could have seized control of the division by now and just haven’t. The Jets had won four in a row and looked like they were about to get away, and then got clocked by the Knights (still not buying it. I may be the last one this year but just can’t get there). The Predators had won three in a row but were just kneecapped at home by the Penguins. Either way, the Jets have a two-point lead with a game in hand, so this game seems like a final stand for Nashville if they care about winning the division. Both have reasonable schedules after this, and it’s likely this isn’t the last game between them this season. We’ll run it all back at the end of April.
Second Screen Viewing
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes – Sunday, 6pm
You can’t get much more of a four-pointer than this one. These two hold the wildcard spots at the moment, with the Jackets a point behind the Canadiens. Both will play the night before and Columbus won’t, so by the time they enter this they could both be three points clear at least. But this one could very well decide who cinches a spot up and who is going to have to alligator wrestle with the Jackets down to the wire. And the Penguins aren’t entirely clear of the mess as they’re four points ahead of Carolina but have played two games more. The Canes get the Wild at home on Saturday, so essentially if they can sweep the weekend in Raleigh they’ll have one foot in. Two nippy, fast teams here. Should be spirited.
Other Games
Friday
Wild vs. Capitals – 6pm
Sharks vs. Ducks – 9pm
Saturday
Coyotes vs. Devils – 12pm
Islanders vs. Flyers – 12pm
Senators vs. Oilers – 3pm
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Sabres vs. Canadiens – 6pm
Bruins vs. Panthers – 6pm
Wild vs Hurricanes – 6pm
Lightning vs. Blues – 7pm
Penguins vs. Stars – 7pm
Flames vs. Canucks – 9pm
Red Wings vs. Knights – 9pm
Ducks vs. Kings – 9:30
Sunday
Flyers vs. Capitals – 11:30am
Coyotes vs. Islanders – 2pm
Blue Jackets vs. Canucks – 9pm
It’s been a while since we’ve gotten goofy before a weekend, so let’s do that! It’s Opening Day next week, and it promises to be at least an interesting season on both sides of town. This also might, might foreshadow some other things coming to this blog in the next few weeks, but I’ll get to that in the coming days. For now, let’s just talk some baseball!
Cubs: Well, I already did this, and you can read it at Baseball Prospectus. But essentially, in a nutshell, after an offseason that became more hellish by choice than it ever should have, the Cubs are still going to hit a lot, they’re still going to have a very good to better than that rotation (assuming health as it’s all over 30), and you can always remake a bullpen on the fly if you have to. They’re winning 92-95 games again, which I can’t decide if it’s a good thing or not because nothing should ever prove Tom Ricketts right. We’ll run that kitten over when we get to it. ;
Now the fun part….I asked Adam Hess, McClure, and Fifth Feather to do a Q&A on their beloved 35th St. Nine. Here you go:
White Sox
Now that the dust has settled on the offseason, let’s focus on what’s here. What does Yoan Moncada‘s shift to third mean? They don’t think he can play second? Will he hit enough to be on a corner?
Hess: The biggest thing I think it means is that they’re preparing to rush 2018 first round pick Nick Madrigal to the majors. There are some scouts who would call his hit tool MLB caliber already, and it did get 70 grades after all, and his bat-to-ball skills are great. And he’s got the right attitude, I suppose. But I think it has very little to do with Moncada’s ability at second – he had the range for it, just needed to soften the hands. Maybe they’re hoping the hot corner will reduce thinking time as the ball comes at him and reduce his necessary movement and therefore cut down the errors. I can’t really call it. In terms of hitting, I think he will hit fine for the hot corner. His problem isn’t the bat, it’s not swinging it. He took so many called third strikes last year because he thinks he has the best eye in baseball, but umpires were doing him no favors. He was a .400 hitter before the count got to two strikes. If he can keep himself ahead in the count, he should mash.
Feather: Do we have to focus on what’s here? It seems more like a threat than anything else. Fine…Moncada’s shift to third basically signals to me they want to push Madrigal through the system as quickly as possible, perhaps with an eye on a September call-up depending on how his minor league season goes. Moncada can certainly play second if you’re willing to live with the occasional error or 20 as his range is better than most at the position. In an ideal situation you’d have Machado at 3rd and Moncada at 2nd to create an incredibly dynamic power line up. God damn it. Now I’m going to be red and nude again. Moncada has the power profile to play at 3rd. It’s really a matter of whether or not his off-season training to be more aggressive in the batter’s box pays off and he cuts down on his incredibly high number of backwards K’s.
Now that Eloy is signed and can actually be here for Opening Day instead of whatever bullshit reason they would have used to keep him in the minors for two weeks, what are you expecting?
McClure: I think the first trip around the league is going to be rougher than many are anticipating for Eloy, I think his much lauded contact rate isn’t going to be commensurate with what he’s put up before in the minors, but he’s shown that he learns real quick. But when he does get ahold of one it’s going to be on the Dan Ryan. If you’re looking for an actual prediction, I spose I’ll go with a .250/.325/.425 slash line with 18 homers, assuming he plays 140ish games.
Feather:I’m expecting him to be Frank Thomas reincarnate. Is that too much to ask? With that profile in mind, let’s say .275/.350/.490 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs because no one is getting on base for him. If he’s not on the opening day roster after his new contract, I will absolutely light myself on fire in effigy in front of Rick, Jerry and Kenny. Can’t release Nicky Delmonico without giving him a chance to prove himself, after all.
Who is one player who might surprise and keep himself around when the Sox are contenders again?
Hess: To me it’s Yolmer Sanchez, who is a useful utility knife in the infield. He’s capable of playing 2nd, 3rd, and even short in a pinch, is a switch hitter, and can swipe the occasional bag. He doesn’t have much pop, but he can get you a .300 or better OBP, and when they’re good again, that entire profile will be more than acceptable from a bench infielder.
McClure: As stated above, I do quite enjoy Yolmer, and think he’s a much more natural second baseman than a third baseman, and he showed some traditional top of the lineup capabilities last year with 34 doubles and 10 triples, even though his on base rate was lacking a little. That 2nd baseman spot is basically there for whenever Nick Madrigal is ready, but Yolmer certainly looks like he can be a valuable utility contributor on a good team.
Will Lucas Giolito‘s new delivery keep him from walking the park?
Hess: God, I really hope so. I think somewhere inside Giolito is the pitcher who was earning a 70 overall grade from MLB scouts and considered the top pitching prospect in baseball as recently as 2016. Some combination of awkwardness from being so damn tall, and the unfortunate reality of “this is just how it goes when you’re a White Sox” has ruined that, and any chance of him hitting the ceiling scouts once envisioned is gone. But with Kopech and Dylan Cease around as your potential 1/2 duo (in either order, really, because they’re both studs), if you can still get production from Giolito worthy of the fourth spot in a rotation, I think their rotation will be hard to hit. But there’s a lot more cynicism on Gio’s future for me now than a year ago.
McClure: It’s now going on 3 years removed for Giolito’s “top prospect” status, and last year he couldn’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo even when he was trying to throw strikes. Hitters are going to stand up there with a bat on their shoulder at first and force him to find the plate, and then IF he shows that he can, they’re going to sit on his fastball, which isn’t particularly electric with either velocity or movement. Giolito seems like a smart guy in interviews, so in order to have any kind of career in the majors, he might have to switch from being a “stuff” guy all his life at 6’5″ 230, and have to actually learn how to pitch and set hitters up with sequencing. But again, this is all under the assumption that he’ll get within half a parsec of the plate, which is far from given.
Feather: It better. I can’t imagine he has much rope this season after setting a new ERA high or whatever embarrassing record he set. With Dylan Cease looming and a couple other interesting rotation pieces in Charlotte, Giolito may be the first casualty of the rebuild if he can’t improve even in the slightest. Which is too bad because as Matt mentioned, he seems like a really nice guy who GETS IT.
Ok so the winter wasn’t what you’d hoped. But this division pretty much sucks. Couldn’t the Sox hiccup a few more wins than expected simply because of that?
Hess: I mean, they absolutely can wind up winning 70 games instead of 62 again. They probably have the best bullpen in the division, which is huge. But I don’t think this division is bad enough for them to even flirt with .500 barring some huge breakout seasons – from just about everyone. Tim Anderson would need to finally get his OBP above .300. Yoan would need to swing the bat and rake like I suggested he can. Eloy probably needs to hit .300 and mash 40. Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Carlos Rodon would all have to be reliable. Is that all possible? Sure. But the odds of it all lining up are slim to none. The unfortunate reality is even if they managed to get their dicks out of their hands and ultimately landed Machado, that probably wouldn’t have made them more than a 75-win team. Their biggest need is starting pitching, and while I’m sure they’re optimistic and hopeful about who they have, they have to know it’s not good enough to compete, at least not yet. I picture them moreso being in the top-5 of the draft again next year.
McClure: They might be able to, but it’s still not going to get them anywhere even if the rest of this division is utter trash. There’s just not enough pitching here with Kopech unavailable for a year even if every single young bat performs to or exceeds expectations.
Feather: Yes, and the fact their bullpen is much improved. They absolutely could stumble into the 70-80 win territory based on that alone. Last year, their bullpen was Jace Fry and 11 guys doing things. They brought in Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome which should at the very least give Ricky more than one option in the 7th, 8th or 9th. With Detroit and KC throwing out rosters with dead guys on them, their win total SHOULD improve. But this is the White Sox we’re discussing. So Herrera will most certainly suck, Colome will blow 30% of his save opportunities and Ron Gardenhire will somehow squeeze 85 wins out of a pathetic Tigers squad that wins 19 of 21 from the Sox. This is how it works now!
When I attend games with Fifth Feather, as I did last night, our minds and conversation tend to wander to all sort of subjects, at least until he get back to bitching about the White Sox. But many topics are usually covered, and one that keeps coming up is the extreme weirdness of Erik Gustafsson. Remember, a year ago Gustafsson really had only been with the team a month or six weeks after a year and a half exile to Rockford. All for one turnover in a playoff series. And yet here he is, with an outside chance at a 60-point season from the blue line. Certainly 55+ is on the cards.
And yet, for listeners to the podcast or regular readers, you know that we remain unconvinced of Gustafsson’s value. We’ve used the term “third-pairing bum-slayer” quite regularly. And that remains the feeling. But what Feather and I asked ourselves last night was, “Has a true bum ever put up 55+ points?” There are thresholds in a most sports where if a player crosses them, he has to be good, right? Like, if you can put up 55 points even once, then you have to have some use. Which caused me to go to the archives.
In the past 10 seasons, there have been 57 instances of a d-man scoring 55 points or more. And on that list, you’d be hard-pressed to find a player who was a total bum-ass bum. Sure, some of them eventually turned into that when they got older, but not when and around when they were putting up that many points. You remember Mark Streit being terrible, but around 2009 and 2010 when he was putting up that total he certainly wasn’t. Kevin Shattenkirk would be a stretch, as though he’s hardly top-paring material he’s gone down with the ship on Broadway and has always been a solid second- or third-pairing puck-mover. Torey Krug is on the list, and seems a pretty solid comp, as he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing on his half of the ice but racks up points and chances on the other. He has his use. Lubomir Visnovsky is a name that pops out, and remember that one because we’re coming back to it, who somehow collected 68 points in ’10-’11 for the Ducks in the one season apparently he gave a shit the whole time. He was 34 then and right afterwards turned into sawdust and vomit.
So then the question last night became how many d-men had their first 55+ point season at 27, which Gustafsson is. And the answer is a little more than you might first guess (technically this is Gustaffson’s age-26 season, but he did just turn 27 a week ago).
The first name is Brent Burns, whose first 55+ points season came at 29. Burns has been consistently in the league since the age of 20, and as you know spent considerable time at forward in both Minnesota and San Jose. Mark Giordano’s first 55+ point season came at 32. Injury problems prevented it from happening at 30 or 31, and Gio had been a Norris-caliber performer before that, but he didn’t crack the code until much later than even Gustafsson has. Visnovsky was 29, and again seems almost the perfect comp. He’d only been in the league a couple years before that, was woeful and helpless defensively, but could definitely make it happen at the other end when he wanted to.
There are more: Andrei Markov was 29. Brian Rafalski was 27 when he cracked 50 for the first time, and only in his second year in the league. Dan Boyle was 26 when he got to 53 for the first time in Tampa. Mark Streit was 31.
The difference, at least for most of these names, is that they were in the league for years before cracking this ceiling we’ve made up. There are a couple exceptions, obviously, but rare is the player who does this after only being in the league a year and a half, or at least not playing in Europe first. They’re there, though.
Look, I would love to tell you that Gustafsson is going to become Brian Rafalski, and if the Hawks could find another Nicklas Lidstrom to pair him with, well everything would be fucking golden, wouldn’t it? And there are considerations/caveats to consider. Just this season is a higher-scoring environment than even two or three years ago, for one. None of these players are going to have any influence on what Gustafsson goes on to do.
But still, if you an put up this kid of total, basically it’s kind of who you are? That’s what it looks like at least. Gustafsson may be a dragon with diarrhea (explosive at both ends), but if you’re going off what came before this kind of production might be the norm for the next few years instead of just a goofed spike in percentages.
Well, that 11% shooting-percentage will probably come down, but you get it.
-Normally, when Patrick Kane isn’t having an influence on game, the easy joke/observation (and one he’s more than earned) is that the give-o-shit meter is on empty and/or he’s hungover. But when it’s gone on for a few games like it has now, it has to be something more.
Not that seven points in nine March games is bad, or even close. But it’s only one goal in nine games, and watching him last night his game just didn’t have the pop that it’s had. And I think it might be obvious, but again, back to the archives.
At the top, Kane is averaging two more minutes per game this year than last. It might not seem like much, but that’s a 10% increase and over 70 games were talking almost three full games worth of time. Fatigue has to be a factor, right?
Let’s stat it out. On the year, Kane is averaging 4.5 attempts himself per game at evens. In six of the last seven games, he’s failed to reach that mark including a skunk against the Sabres. Kane has averaged 2.6 shots at evens per game on the season. In five of the last seven games, he’s failed to reach that mark. He’s averaged on the season 2.4 scoring chances per game at evens. He’s failed to reach that in six of the last seven. So just personally, Kane is averaging less attempts, shots, and not getting the same looks in the month of March.
But as we know, Kane’s a creator first and finisher second, even if he’s got 40 goals. So is he creating the same amount? We can only judge what is happening when he’s on the ice instead of what he himself is creating, but generally when he’s on the ice everything’s going through him anyway.
When Kane has been on the ice this season, the Hawks have created about 16 attempts per game at evens. He’s crossed that threshold of late just as much as he hasn’t. Kane on the ice has meant almost exactly nine shots per game from the Hawks. Again, he’s reached that four times out of the last eight games. Again, the same story with scoring chances, as the Hawks have hopped over and back the line of 7.9 per game that he’s been averaging on the season.
Given Kane’s vision, he could stand still most nights and probably get his teammates attempts and chances. But he doesn’t seem to have that extra oomph to get himself into the prime scoring areas or finish off plays. And who could blame him? Not only has he averaged two more minutes per game this season, but his heavy-load games have almost always been scrambling the Hawks back into a game late, which is even more frenzied work. It’s the type of extra ice-time that’s almost certainly been even more draining.
The Rockford IceHogs picked up a huge overtime win over the Chicago Wolves at the BMO Harris Bank Center Wednesday night. The 2-1 victory was in line with the way the piglets have won for the bulk of the 2018-19 campaign. Rockford leaned on its goaltender and picked up two valuable points in the Central Division standings.
On Wednesday, it was Collin Delia who kept the Hogs in contention with a 32-save performance. The frugal IceHogs have won four straight games despite scoring just eight regulation goals in that span.
Buoyed by this winning streak, Rockford has the fourth and final playoff spot in its possession for the time being. The Hogs (31-24-4-6) own a .554 points percentage with 11 games remaining in the regular season.
Texas and Manitoba are right behind Rockford, with Milwaukee still in the hunt for a postseason berth. The IceHogs can put a damper on the dreams of the Admirals, as the two teams face off with each other in each of the next three games.
Rockford visits Milwaukee Friday before the action returns to the Forrest City Saturday and next Wednesday. The Hogs have won four of the seven matchups with the Admirals this season. Three of those wins have come at the UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena.
The IceHogs did themselves a huge favor this past Sunday in beating the Stars 2-1 in regulation. Anton Forsberg, who paces the AHL with a .924 save percentage, stopped 34 shots to pick up the win over Texas. Forsberg is 4-2 against the Admirals this season with a 1.99 GAA and a .920 save percentage.
Hot And Cold Running Hogs
Anthony Louis is currently mired in a 15-game goal-less drought. In fact, Louis has just one goal and four helpers in his last 26 games dating back to January 12. Tyler Sikura has been back in the lineup for six games but is looking for his first goal since coming back from a broken thumb.
Jordan Schroeder, who posted the lone shootout goal to beat Chicago Wednesday, continues to put up a steady stream of points. He has two goals and four assists in seven March contests. Since coming aboard last month, Peter Holland has also provide offense for the Hogs. In eleven games with Rockford, Holland has four goals and three assists.
Holland’s four goals since coming aboard February 20 pace Rockford in that span. The Hogs still man the league basement, scoring a paltry 2.40 goals per contest. To be in a position for the postseason is a testament to the play of Forsberg, Delia and Kevin Lankinen in net.
Roster Moves
The influx of college and junior players has begun for the IceHogs. Rockford signed center Dylan McLaughlin to a two-year AHL deal on March 13. McLaughlin, who was a Hobey Baker finalist with Canisius College last season, has skated in four games with the Hogs.
The IceHogs also signed Indy Fuel defenseman Dmitri Osipov to a PTO on Saturday. Osipov has skated in two games with Rockford. Wednesday, the Hogs inked forward Fredrik Olofsson, a fourth-round selection by the Blackhawks in 2014, to an Amateur Tryout contract.
On Thursday, Rockford extended the AHL contract of goalie Matt Tomkins through next season. He’s played well in Indy this season, with a 25-17-2 record. He has been named the CCM/ECHL Goaltender of the Week on three occasions this season.
At this point, forwards Jacob Nilsson, Matthew Highmore and Nick Moutrey are still missing from the IceHogs lineup. Defenseman Brandon Davidson is also out, as has been the case since February 20.
I’ll be back on Monday to recap what is shaping up to be another big weekend of action. Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for game updates this weekend and thoughts on the IceHogs all season long.
Sometimes there is just very little you can say about a hockey game to accurately describe what occurred, and tonight is one of those nights. I don’t wanna waste what I do have on the intro so let’s dive in to the bullets:
– The first period was something of a roller coaster of emotions, as the Hawks played well on the offensive side of the ice, but truly horribly on the other end. There was a stretch of play during a Philly PP where the Hawks had two or three better scoring chances than the Flyers were able to generate the rest of the man advantage, but in not cashing in the feeling went from “damn what a chance” to “oh shit, it’s one of those nights then” really fast, at least for me. They were getting shots on net and moving the puck well, but on the other side they were basically letting up a shot every minute and getting run around the zone. It was a difficult contrast to settle with, and made what was ultimately a good period (54.04 CF%) feel “just okay.”
– Adding to that feeling of the first being just okay was how incredible the scoring chances the Hawks were giving up were. There were multiple open net chances blown by the Flyers – all night, not just in the first period – that should’ve ended up behind Crawford. And when Philly ultimately did beat Crow, they did so by having a guy come off the bench and skate his way all the way into the slot without being even breathed on, and he still had three feet of clearance from the closest defenseman when he let the shot go. Having good possession numbers is mad far less valuable if you can’t play competent defense and are giving away nothing but A+ chances.
– To add to that last point, if the Hawks had played that way against a more competent team, they would’ve lost 6-1 rather than 3-1. Even with a 65.31 CF% for the whole game, they had just 44.44% of the High Danger Chances. You can’t be doing that and expect to win a game, especially in a must-win scenario like they were facing tonight.
– Corey Crawford deserves better than the defense in front of him giving away those chances, but he also can’t be giving up goals like the Flyers’ second and ultimate game-winning score. There was some traffic out front, but a 40-foot backhand floater from the boards beating you blocker side is just embarrassing shit. Crow played well tonight, but given the lack of overall finish in the Hawks game tonight, you can’t get your team behind the 8-Ball like that.
– Writing off the Hawks lack of scoring as lack of finish also might be a bit generous. Even with 41 shots on goal overall tonight, it felt a lot like the Hawks were just being trigger-shy at times when they shouldn’t have been, especially early on in the game.
– This was a blown chance at gaining serious ground in the playoff hunt, and in the end they ended up falling even further down the standings because of the Avs’ winning. Personally I still think that the lower they finish the better, but I’m also into the idea of playoff hockey and games that matter. At this point they need to pick a lane – let’s bottom this shit out, or figure out shit out and get to the damn playoffs.
First Screen Viewing
Lightning vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
It’s possible that this is a preview of the first round, which would be bad news for all us satellite Caniacs. The Canes have a three-point cushion on Columbus with a game in hand, though this is the game in hand, so that’s not ideal. The Bolts are coming off a bonkers win in DC last night, so if there’s ever a time to catch them…no, no, there’s never a time to catch them. Still, these are two of the most entertaining teams in the league so even though there might not be too many stakes to this one, it’s worth tuning in for. Also we need a Street Fighter celebration now.
Second Screen Viewing
Avalanche vs. Stars – 7:30
If you’re still under the impression that the Hawks are in this, and maybe they are maybe they aren’t, this is the one to watch. The Hawks and Avs could be set up for a death-match this weekend in both cities, and if results break a certain way they’ll be tied going into it. The Stars might have their target-lock on the Blues ahead of them, not that there’s much difference between a first-round date with the Preds or Jets. They’re still not totally clear of the abyss, with the Wild five points behind. They’re almost there, though, and probably want to cinch that up as quickly as possible. A Hawks win and Avs loss tonight makes this weekend at least interesting.
Other Games
Coyotes vs. Panthers – 6pm
Bruins vs. Devils – 6pm
Islanders vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Red Wings vs. Blues – 7pm
Penguins vs. Predators – 7pm
Senators vs. Flames – 8pm
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers – 8pm
Jets vs. Knights – 9pm
Sharks vs. Kings – 9:30
vs. 
RECORDS: Flyers 35-30-8 Hawks 32-30-10
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: WGN
THEY BLEW UP HIS HOUSE TOO: Broad Street Hockey
Whatever this late-season charge is, and wherever it’s going, continues on Madison St. tonight as the Hawks host the Flyers. They have a chance to put a bad result behind them, and set themselves up once again for what would be a big weekend set against the Avalanche in an old school home-and-home. Essentially, after these three games (certainly four with the Coyotes after that), we’ll be as close to official word as we’ve had on what the last two weeks will be.
There was a moment there when the Flyers were also threatening to crash the playoff party in the East. They won 12 of 14 from January into February, but have been trading wins and losses since and have watched the Penguins, Canes, and Canadiens basically get away from them. They’re six points behind the Jackets with only nine to go, so that’s not happening. And really, this Flyers team doesn’t deserve a playoff spot. And neither do the Hawks, really. It’s one very much still in a rebuild/rebrand/transition/whatever term we use now.
The Flyers have suffered from the up-and-down nature of such a young roster. Not everyone takes a step forward at the same time, and Claude Giroux isn’t crashing in shots at to the tune of 18% anymore to even it out. 10 of the 19 skaters and goalie on display tonight are 25 or under, so the thought is the future is quite bright. And it may be, though it’s hard to see which of the neophyte set is going to be a true star. Nolan Patrick looks functional, but hasn’t yet popped or flashed that he’ll be inspirational soon. Then again he’s 20. Ivan Provorov has struggled under the weight of top-pairing assignments. Shayne Gostisbehere has looked like more than just a power play weapon, but also hasn’t really shown to be more than a second-pairing d-man. Maybe Travis Sanheim?
One who definitely has flashed being something that Philly fans will toast their lagers to before chucking the full glasses/cans at each other (it’s a sign of love there) is goalie Carter Hart. He’s also 20, but is carrying a top-10 SV% in the league and one of the better marks for a rookie in recent history. Flyers fans have been waiting for Hart ever since he started holding the entire WHL by the forehead and letting them uselessly swing their arms. He wasn’t supposed to be here, but thanks to injuries and incompetence from others he is and now he’s going to stay. If you’re any kind of hockey fan you know that the Flyers crease has been a succubus to anyone stepping into it decked in orange since Ron Hextall. Hart just might be the one to break the curse, but as it always is with the Flyers, one has to wait and see before fully committing. Odd things happen to men in masks there.
As for the Hawks, they seem intent on carrying on with this odd and frankly wrong set of forward lines, with Daydream Nation reunited and Dylan Sikura along for the ride. It’s too top heavy for no reason, as Sikura doesn’t really compliment these two in the way they need to maximize. They need a puck-winner like Saad or Caggiula. And that third line doesn’t really do anything. It’s not a checking line because Anisimov is too slow and too soft. It has no creator to score. Hopefully Beto O’Colliton realizes the error of his ways and goes back to what we had after no more than a period. Corey Crawford is your starter.
This one should be much more open than Monday’s what-have-ya. The Flyers don’t have the defense to trap, and it’s not what their young forwards want to do anyway. That should benefit the Hawks, but there’s some sneaky firepower down the lineup for Agents Orange, which means trouble for the trash on the third pairing for the Hawks. And Hart is capable of stealing a game here and there. So the Hawks can’t half-ass this. They can’t half-ass anything. They lost that right long ago.
If the Hawks are serious about this whole playoff push thing, and I’m not convinced they are, they basically have to take the next three, and probably in regulation when it comes to the weekend. Do that and they’ll be ahead of the Avs and at worst sitting on the shoulders of Minnesota and Arizona with the latter on the schedule the very next night. The Hawks have basically fallen in their own vomit every time they had a chance to turn their season serious, and this is probably the last one. Let’s see what they’ve got.
Game #73 Preview Suite
When the Hawks visited The Iladelph in November, we documented just what a hellscape filled with suffering and blisters the Flyers goaltending spot has been. It has been a generational problem. At this point your father probably barely remembers Ron Hextall. You have never seen a competent Flyers goalie. You don’t know what it looks like. If you were presented with one, you would be paralyzed by confusion, if not a whole Birdbox scenario.
Could it be in the same year the Bears maybe have found a quarterback, the Flyers have found a goalie?
Carter Hart wasn’t supposed to be here. The Flyers definitely wanted to wait another season before bringing him up from Allentown (though you can’t blame anyone for rushing their escape from Allentown). But as is Flyers tradition, everyone they’ve asked to don the gear for them has either been hurt, bad, or both. We seem to be the only ones who continually point out that Brian Elliot has a terminal case of being Brian Elliot, and yet teams keep diving in. This is what you get. This is a team that actually traded for the broken and lost Cam Talbot. So they had no choice but to turn to Hart.
Hart popped up on the radar for Flyers fans after a simply dominant last season in the Western Hockey League, where over 41 games he put up a .947 SV%. That followed a .927 season where he also backstopped the Canadian World Junior team. Now, the WHL tends to throw up some pretty high save-percentages and defensive stats. It’s the anti-QMJHL. The leader this year has a .936. You’ll recall Mac Carruth putting up a .929 once upon a time, and he landed in the Upside-Down eventually. But .947 is .947, and leading the league in SV% three years running as Hart did turns a lot of heads.
Hart’s numbers in the AHL this year were not impressive, as he only put up a .902 SV%. But then everyone in the Flyers crease caught The Plague, and up he came. And he’s been brilliant. His .919 SV% is top-1o in the league, and it’s not like the Flyers are making it easy on him. Hart has seen just a tick under 35 shots per night. The Flyers are middle of the pack when it comes to scoring chances against per game, and top-10 in high-danger ones. So the volume of shots might be up there, but the quality of them isn’t that bad.
Hart’s .919 ranks 10th in the league overall. His .895 SV% shorthanded is sixth in the league. The signs are clearly encouraging. What does it mean in the long run?
Again, this is Carter Hart, and what has gone on before will have pretty much no influence on him. But the signs are encouraging. In the past 10 years, only 10 rookie goalies have bettered Hart’s .919. That list is: Joonas Korpisalo, John Gibson, James Reimer, Frederik Andersen, Matt Murray, Jimmy Howard, Juuse Saros, Cory Schneider, Jordan Binnington, and Tuukka Rask. Other than Binnington, who’s a rookie this year, all of those have at least been serviceable NHL goalies. Gibson, Schneider, Rask, and Andersen have been Vezina contenders at various points. Murray has two rings. Just below Hart in rookie seasons are Connor Hellebuyck, Corey Crawford, Pekka Rinne, and Petr Mrazek. Only Mrazek is a name that would cause Philadelphians to choke on their wooter-ice.
That’s if you don’t believe there’s some sort of voodoo sign hanging over the Flyers’ blue paint. We tend not to believe in things we can’t see, but this has gone on so long you wonder. This is Philadelphia after all. All the goalies mentioned above had some sort of dip or adjustment period along the way. None of them had to deal with Flyers fans throwing themselves off the upper deck in response or hurling dead pigeons at them. It’s a different place. Patience goes there to die.
Hart has the best chance of anyone to navigate it. But that doesn’t mean it will be easy.
Game #73 Preview Suite
