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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Spotlight – Turris Lura Lural

By Sam Fels 1872 0

It’s rare we get a blockbuster trade in the NHL. Most GMs would cover themselves in their own piss for anything that put their name in league-wide headlines, and even the ones that want to get out there are severely handicapped by the salary cap. So it’s strange that David Poile has been part of two of the biggest trades in the league the past two seasons. First it was PK Subban for Shea Weber, and then Poile pulled the trigger on the #2 center his team needed since he pulled the trigger on another huge deal for Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones. When it comes to taking chances, Poile seems to be way ahead of his competition.

Is Turris the final piece for the Predators? It sure feels that way. The Preds have been short down the middle for what seems like their entire existence. Last year when Ryan Johansen went down they were forced to go forward with Mike Fisher and Calle Jarnkrok. Those are fine players but not quite enough. They were just good enough to break the Predators heart.

It took Turris a lot longer to become a real player in the NHL than the player he was picked two spots behind in 2007, which would be Patrick Kane. He didn’t play his first year, and then was inserted into a pretty terrible situation with Wayne Gretzky behind the bench. Turris clearly saw that it would never work in Arizona, asking out just about as soon as he could, when his entry-level deal was up.

Turris took off in his second year in the Northern Capital, which was the abbreviated season of 2013. Since then, Turris has averaged better than a point every two games, or 50+ in other words if you go that way. He was counted on for #1 center production in Ottawa, which wasn’t really fair to him as that’s not what he is. Turris’s most effective years came with Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone. Last year Turris was asked to help out with kid Ryan Dzingel and the slowly bloating Bobby Ryan, and his production dropped a touch.

Once again, it seemed that Turris read the writing on the wall where he was, and didn’t sign an extension in Ottawa. Or he was just bored out of his mind. With Eugene Melynyk’s internal budget and the pure torture of Guy Boucher’s system, Turris forced the Senators’ hand. He seems to have landed in the perfect situation.

Turris has been asked to finally get something out of Kevin Fiala. Early returns are good, as Fiala has put up seven points in the eight games since Turris arrived and became his center. Craig Smith also has seven points in Turris’s eight games, and they’ve been the one line in Nashville that isn’t surrendering far better chances than they are creating. Which hasn’t really mattered given how Rinne has played and how they’ve finished at the other end of late.

Turris was immediately signed to a six-year extension at $6 million per season, which sets the Preds up pretty swell for the next few years. Only Fiala among the forwards comes up for a new deal in the next two years, at least of the forwards who matter. Ryan Ellis is due a new deal after next year, and he’s going to get a massive raise and may have to find it elsewhere. And after next season Pekka Rinne’s deal is up. If they want him to stay they certainly can get him to come down from his current $7 million at 37. Johansen, Arvidsson, Turris, Bonino, Forsberg, Smith, Subban, Josi, Ekholm are all locked in. That’s about as good of a core locked up as you’ll find anywhere.

It certainly appears to be all systems go for the Predators this season, and you wonder who can match Johansen-Turris-Bonino down the middle. It’s certainly not the Blues. It could be the Oilers, but they are rotting sushi just about everywhere else. Maybe the Flames in a conference final, but they have issues as well. The Jets? Anyone counting on the Jets for anything ever?

The runway lights are on for the Predators now, that’s for sure.

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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Q&A With Hayley Alexandra

By Sam Fels 1917 0

Hayley is a contributor to OnTheForecheck.com. You can follow her on Twitter @ItsHalesYeah.

6-1 since the Kyle Turris acquisition. Clearly it’s all systems go for the Predators. What’s been the biggest difference he has provided?
The Preds offense has lacked center depth for so long, finally acquiring a 2C out of a guy Ottawa was running as a 1C is huge for this team. He was a renewed confidence boost they needed badly before the trade. Any time a new guy comes in and shakes things up I think it helps the guys who have struggled, work out whatever issues they’ve been having, and get back to playing their game. Turris has definitely taken some pressure off of Ryan Johansen, who was slow to start this year. Knowing that he has some depth behind him now should keep this team rolling deep into the post season again.
If there’s any concern, Juuse Saros has struggled in limited appearances. Is there a fear that Pekka Rinne might have to play too many games if Saros can’t turn it around?
Saros is young and talented, but spending too much time on the bench isn’t good for anyone. He could benefit from spending a few short trips to the AHL to get some playing time in. As for Rinne, he’s been a workhorse for this team for the past few seasons. It’s a role he’s comfortable with and thrives on. My faith in Rinne has not faltered, despite all the backlash he’s gotten the past few seasons. His play during last year’s playoff run and this season has shown he has one goal and that’s to win the cup before he retires. For the first time in a few seasons, Rinne is the least of Nashville’s concerns. 
Truly scary that Ryan Ellis has yet to suit up this season. When he returns do you see Peter Laviolette keeping the top two pairs as is and having Ellis on the third?
Being without Ellis has hindered the defense significantly this season. While Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Mattias Ekholm can hold their own, it’s left an odd rotation to the top pairs. Matt Irwin is a solid anchor for the third line but isn’t really a top pairing kind of defensemen. Guys like Yannick Weber and Alexei Emelin have not been great this season either, keeping either one of them on the top lines probably wouldn’t work out for long. As long as Ellis is healthy he easily slides back into the top two pairings as he should. I can’t see any reason why Laviolette would do anything differently. 
A strange aspect to the Preds so far is that while they’ve been consistently one of the better analytic/sabermetric teams over the years, this year they’re not creating as many “good” chances as years past. Obviously this hasn’t been a problem in actually scoring goals, especially of late, but is this something you see?
The start of this season was not the best showing for the Preds. While they’re not creating as many good chances, they’ve also missed a lot of chances as well. I think the addition of Turris and guys like Scott Hartnell and Ryan Ellis getting healthy will help the Preds create better chances and finish them. 
Now that we’re more than a quarter into this season, does it feel even more like Cup Or Bust for the Predators than it did before the season?
This is such a young team, I think they’ll be Cup contenders for a while. That being said the city of Nashville is ready for a Stanley Cup winning team, and if any Preds team can get it done, it’s this one. 
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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Douchebag Du Jour: Yes, We Know, We Suck

By Sam Fels 2682 0

With the Hawks’ first trip into Music City tonight, and the fact that it’s a nationally televised game on NBCSN, you can be sure it won’t take more than three or four minutes before you hear A. just how loud the building is for a regular season game, B. how loud it was during the playoffs last year when the Hawks got swept. Gee, doesn’t it seem like every year the broadcasters are telling us this is the loudest building they can remember in all their years? We wouldn’t put it past hockey media to have lost their memories through various braincell-damaging activities, but it does seem a coincidence.

And you will hear the noise through your screen. You can’t escape it. And by the second intermission, you might start feeling bad about yourself, whatever the score. And you won’t know why. You’ll ponder, because maybe you had a good day today and were feeling particularly good when you got home from work. You thought you looked particularly good today. Maybe you finished some project that had been taking forever, or your least favorite coworker got fired or you confirmed a pretty hot date for later in the week. So why all of the sudden are you feeling so unsure of yourself?

And then you’ll realize it’s because you’ve spent the previous hour, hour and a half listening to 18,000 people repeatedly and constantly telling you that you suck. And maybe they weren’t directly talking to you, but hearing it over and over again and you can’t help but take it on yourself. After a while the question will be unavoidable: “Do I, in fact, suck?”

That’s what happens when watching games at Bridgestone Arena. A constant hum telling you that you suck. No matter the score, no matter the chant, no matter the time. YOU SUCK. It never stops. So much suckage. You thought you had it figured out, but no. The yellow-clad throng has convinced you that yes, Virginia, you suck.

And what’s more exasperating is that the only time the Predators fans don’t yell, “You suck!” is when the organist is playing WWE’s Kurt Angle’s theme. WHICH IS EXACTLY WHEN YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO DO THAT!

While we love the unique and boisterous atmosphere at Predators’ games, perhaps we can expand our taunts to something more than two words, one involving “suck?” Are we asking too much? Yes, we know this is the limitation of North American fan culture. And hockey media is blown away by anything other than “Go Leafs Go!” We get it.

You have the power, Cellblock 303. You’re Music City for fuck’s sake. Can’t you introduce a song or two to your crowd? We just can’t suck anymore.

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You Ain’t Special, So Who Ya Foolin’?

By Sam Fels 2520 0

One of the things we’ve lamented most over our entire time doing this, and in a connected fashion probably one of the reasons for our “success,” is how inaccessible hockey coaches and media make information that might teach others the game. Getting any sort of useful nuggets of insight from a coach or player is akin to finding a good dentist in Atlantis. They just don’t give it to you. Most of the time I’ll give the players a pass, as stringing together sentences is enough of a challenge and they’re most assuredly following orders.

We all know why. Everyone takes their cues from football coaches, whom these days are taking their cues from Bill Belichick. But there was a holier than thou quality to football coaches long before Belichik turned it into something of an art, and this shit didn’t really fly when he was coaching the Browns. And even in football, it’s a little silly.

I’m struggling to find the video, but there was another perfect and infuriating example on HNIC’s pregame show on Saturday, which was setting up the Capitals-Leafs game that night. Both Mike Babcock and Barry Trotz were facing mini-controversies in how they sent out their forwards. Babcock has long refused to pair up Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, even though they’ve been a fist in the face of God when he has. Trotz had split up Niklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin of late in a bid to juice scoring through more of the lineup.

The pregame show played clips of pressers each had earlier in the week. The clip of Babcock showed him responding to a question from some member of Toronto media person about the Matthews-Marner axis with, “When you coach the team you can set it up however you want. When I coach it I’ll do what I want.”

The clip of Trotz that followed wasn’t much better. When asked about Backstrom and Ovie–and by a female reporter but I’ll save that raised eyebrow for another time–Trotz’s response was, “Because I felt like it.” And he repeated that when pressed, and good on her for asking a follow-up, which seems to be a lost art these days.

What’s frustrating about these things is that no one was asking about specific game strategy. It’s not like we wanted Babcock to tell us how they were going to attack the Caps when John Carlson was on the ice that night. It’s like almost every coach doesn’t know that their team is being scouted by every other team in the league. If Babs feels that Marner and Matthews are too weak defensively to be playing together, you can be sure every other team knows that already. If Babs thinks that Marner needs the puck too much to be effective and Matthews hasn’t quite learned how to play without the puck totally effectively yet, or something like that, what’s the cost in telling your fans that? Sure, it doesn’t cost Babcock anything to keep his fans in the dark and questioning as long as the wins pile up. But it doesn’t cost him anything to not do so either.

And of course, I can totally understand the urge to tell the Toronto media to find something to spin on. We all do.

We face the same thing here in Chicago. Things are rosy for the moment, especially in the glow of Top Cat’s hat trick last night against several wildebeests masquerading as Anaheim Ducks. And if your next questions is, “Where would wildebeests get Anaheim Ducks unis?” believe me I’m right there with you. Still, A.D.B has shown he already has NHL top six skills, and yet he isn’t playing there. He fashioned a goal with his line last night, but the other two goals were when he was out there between line changes and got to run with Schmaltz and Kane. And this has kind of been the story all season.

At this point, we know Schmaltz is in the wing spot Top Cat would take in the top six because the Hawks want him to shoot more, and maybe give him a touch more space for his vision. Maybe they also don’t feel DeBrincat is ready for tougher competition. Maybe they don’t think Schmaltz has the strength or determination down low in his own zone yet to play in the middle.

But have we heard Q say any of this? None of this would be news to his opponents. They have scouts and those scouts have eyes. We’re basically guessing at what the reasons are. I’m pretty confident that the Predators know that for tonight Schmaltz is more likely to pass than shoot when in a given spot, no matter what Quenneville gives us or doesn’t.

While it’s pointless to continue to point to the NBA as comparison, one of the things serious NBA fans love about that league is that coaches give their press something. They’ll tell you if a guys spreads the floor from the four or they like his defense on the wing from the bench or whatever else. They’re not going to give you specific sets they’re going to run ahead of time but they’ll tell you why they did something in the past. You can learn something and watch your team differently.

Again, it doesn’t cost hockey teams anything to be run like this. We’ll still watch. It’s just annoying that they think they’re guarding government secrets. It might make for a more enjoyable time for everyone.

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Game #23 – Eruption – Hawks 7, Ducks 3

By John Pullega 4032 0

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I always smile when I remember that Cam Fowler plays for the Ducks. I smile especially big when the Hawks rub the Ducks’s faces in it. To the bullets.

– One of the Hawks’s third liners, Alex DeBrincat, had a hat trick on Free Hat Night. The fix is in. It’s important to reiterate that the Hawks drafted Kitten Mittons with the pick they got for trading Andrew Shaw to the Canadiens. He scored two of his goals while on the ice with guys other than his regular linemates, which makes one wonder how many more goals he’d have playing with guys with similar vision, speed, and finish. But that’s for another day. DeBrincat was everywhere tonight. The Hawks have something special in him.

– The score sheet will tell you that Rutta and Panik had assists on Saad’s goal, but let me assure you, that was pure Saad. His stick lift into a goal sent Derek Grant one step closer to the Junior Wealth Management Associate job his father reserved for him when he named him. And if that’s not enough for you, at about a minute into the second period, Franson was semi-interfered with and the Ducks had an odd-man rush developing. Then, like an excited electron, Saad was suddenly just there, breaking the whole thing up. Plus he’s starting to click offensively, and when Saad clicks offensively, there’s no one on the Hawks who’s an all-around better player.

– Except maybe Crawford, who really only gave up one soft goal tonight. The third goal was on a chance bounce while on the PK, and the first was scored by Ducks Third Star Brent Seabrook. And early in the game, when it looked like it might actually be a game, he made a few big saves in close. I’d have to dig into the numbers, but dare I say it, Corey might end up in Hall of Fame talks if he keeps this all up. If nothing else, he’s a Hall of Famer in my heart.

– Speaking of heart, Heart Man was spry tonight. His pass from behind the net to end Sharp’s goal drought reminds you of why he was a first-round pick. His possession numbers were strong (63+ CF% at evens), and he even made Corey Perry flinch in that third-period scrum at the end. More of that will bode nicely for all.

– Of all the great things that happened tonight, my favorite thing by far was Tommy Wingels walking away from Josh “Don’t Call Me Charles” Manson after Manson had dropped the gloves. The only thing more humiliating than losing a fight is having the guy you pick a fight with chuckle and skate away. More of that will also bode nicely, both for the Hawks and hockey in general.

– Artem Anisimov is still the Hawks’s leading goal scorer after tonight. Connor Murphy had an even-strength CF% of fucking 81+. Pleasant surprises are fun.

– Man, I can’t even try to drag out any Chicago sports fan pessimism about tonight. I wanted to bring some levity to everything by saying that Duncan Keith’s CF% of 35+ at evens wasn’t great, but then I saw that it was still higher than seven Ducks players and tied with Sami Vatanen. Logan Shaw had a CF% of 16.67. Through three periods. A third liner scored three goals after being traded for a guy named Shaw. Again, the NHL fix to keep the Blackhawks relevant is afoot and active.

That’s two convincing victories in a row, and nine points out of 10 through the last five. It’s beginning to look a lot like Blackhawks hockey.

Beer Du Jour: High Life. Champagne is for celebrating.

Line of the Night: “I don’t call him The Cat. I call him The Lion.” –Jamal Mayers on Alex DeBrincat, making lion references Brandon Bollig can only dream about.

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Atop the Sugar Pile – November 27

By Adam Hess 2327 0

Since we last did this, the Blackhawks have taken 7 out of a possible 8 points, and done it against some good competition. They took the Bolts to overtime, though blew a 2-0 lead in the process, and also beat the Rangers, Penguins, and Panthers. Only the second of those three are really among the NHL’s elites, but the other two are fine teams, so we’ll take it. Things are sort of going up, so let’s look at what’s been going on.

The Dizzying Highs

Artem Anisimov: Wide Dick managed 4 goals and an assist in the past 4 games, only being held off the stat sheet in one of those four games. He’s showed a nice bounce back from a low and sometimes frustrating start to the season. He posted a hat trick against the Rags, which apparently was his first of his career, though that surprised me a bit. I don’t expect the torrid scoring to continue, but he’s looked a lot better recently so hopefully that continues, because the results will follow.

Patrick Kane: After being marked by Sam as a Terrifying Low last time we did this, Kane has upped his game. He’s had 5 points in the past 4 games as well, split as 3 goals and two assists, including a 2-goal effort against Tampa Bay in which he scored the Hawks only two goals. He’s officially at a point per game pace this year, and his shooting percentage is back to 12%, which is essentially his career norm. More of the same from the Hawks’ best players will certainly be welcome.

The Terrifying Lows

Brent Seabrook (still): Look, I know this is redundant and lazy, but I can’t ignore it, and there hasn’t been that much esle bad lately. Seabrook hasn’t found the score sheet in the past two weeks, and his CF is down to a miserable 48.11%. He really needs a benching and/or launching into the sun, but Quenneville apparently does not seem to agree with pretty much everybody else in the world on that. It’s getting frustrating to watch him continue to leave nacho cheese all over the ice with nothing positive to show from it. Pray for an awakening.

The Creamy Middles

Richard Panik: Panik had 3 assists against the Rags, and while that was the only time he’s made the score sheet in the past two weeks, he’s managed a nice 61.06 CF% in the past four games as well. Panik is never gonna be a world beating scorer, and he won’t really be a top-line forward, but he’s effective in the role that Hawks need him to play, and that’s more than we can say about some of the clowns around this team.

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Game #23 – Ducks vs. Hawks Preview

By Sam Fels 2362 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Ducks 10-9-4   Hawks 11-8-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO MISCHA BARTON?: Anaheim Calling

The beginning of an absolute brutal stretch is tonight on the Westside, as the Hawks will play five games in the next seven days for reasons no one can quite explain. And they only “struggling” team they’ll get is in the Anaheim Ducks tonight, as the Predators look to be part of the class of the West, the Stars are exactly where the Hawks are, and the Kings have had a very surprising start to the season. If you had questions about the Hawks before this, and you assuredly did, then you’ll get at least a few answers this week.

So beating up on whatever is left of the Ducks tonight almost seems paramount, given what’s to come. The Ducks can thank the far more publicized struggles of the Oilers and the continued incompetence of the Coyotes for masking their flailing start to the season. Yes, they only have one point less point than the Hawks and have only played a game more, but if you think the Hawks have been dependent on Corey Crawford, you should get an eyeful of this outfit.

There’s no question the Ducks have been ravaged by injuries. Ryan Kesler has yet to play a game, but then you might have seen that one coming as he’s well over 30 and had wonky groin and hips and whatever else. Ryan Getzlaf broke his face earlier in the year, doing massive amounts of improvement. Bieksa, Lindholm, Fowler, Kase, and Eaves have all missed significant time or are still out, and Rickard Rakell joined that list this weekend. The Ducks have had to lean on a bunch of kids and current janitors who just happened to be at the rink to fill out the lineup every night.

So John Gibson carrying a .923 and Ryan “They Keep Calling Me” Miller being brilliant in just four appearances has been the lifeboat for this team. Because mostly due to the injuries but partly the abstract roster construction, this is not a good possession team. One of the worst in the league, as they give up the most attempts per game than anyone and are second-worst when it comes to their expected goals-against. Yes, again, the Hawks are right there with them but the Ducks don’t come anywhere close to generating the attempts and chances for that the Hawks do.

There’s something called Derek Wagner centering their top line right now, and Corey Perry’s speed right now would be described as “sloth-adjace.” The only functioning line right now is with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg, and if things don’t turn around soon Cogliano could be a very sought-after deadline piece.

Now that the defense is healthy you’d think things should improve a little. Cam Fowler and Hampus! Hampus! are back, and they are some of the better puck-movers in the West. They’re still dragging around Kevin Bieksa, but at least he’s been demoted to third-pairing duties while spotting in some carnival attraction highlights of punching guys in games the Ducks lose. Brandon Montour has been something of a nice little surprise, and Dave Manson’s kid has been solid. The Ducks blue line has to stem the tide that’s been crashing against their zone all year, because they can’t ask Gibson and Miller to keep making 35-40 saves per night. The defense also has to carry far too much of the offensive burden, not just asked to get the puck to the other end but to create when they get there. Without Getzlaf and Rakell this forward group is bereft of any dash whatsoever. Cogliano has almost always scored through graft, it’s not Perry’s game, Silfverberg is a finisher, and everyone else has mittens pinned to their jackets at all times.

For the Hawks, it’ll be more of the same, with Crawford surprisingly getting this start (from all appearances) instead of tomorrow in Nashville. Maybe Q is already waving the white flag on that one and focusing on the more winnable games like this one, the double-header against the Stars and Kings at home. Strange, but not all that strange in the world which we’ve inhabited for so long now. The rest of the lineup stays the same.

The Hawks may already be out of the race for the automatic spots in the division, unless you’re counting on a collapse from the Jets, and I wouldn’t stop you from doing so. Otherwise, it’s a real jam. And if things go sideways this week, even as hard as it looks to be, it’s going to be an uphill climb all season from there on out. This one is more important than it looks given what lies in wait. Thankfully, the Hawks are playing their best hockey at the moment. They’re gonna need it this week.

 

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Game #23 – Ducks vs. Hawks: Spotlight – Even Asshats Get Old

By Sam Fels 2210 0

There aren’t going to be many tears shed outside of Anaheim if Corey Perry is indeed on his decline. At the age of 32, he certainly is at the back of his peak at best. Perry’s on-ice habits, politely described as “ludicrously assholic,” combined with regularly scoring tons of goals haven’t won him many friends who don’t support the….well, whatever the fuck colors the Ducks claim to be other than black. Whatever they are, they look like shit-assed Running Man outfits. So there will be a large crowd waiting to have a good, soul-defining chuckle if Perry is going to be something of an anchor heading out from here. And given his mobility these days, anchors might take that personally.

Perry has only four goals this season, putting him on pace for 16 for the year. This follows a season in which Perry notched just 19 goals, the first time he didn’t mange 20 in ten seasons. Much as the Hawks saw with Marian Hossa for a few years, there’s been a decline in Perry’s shooting-percentage. The path has been 17.1%, 15.8%, 8.8%, and this year’s 8.2%. Of course, there is plenty of time for that to rebound this season, but the pattern is clear.

What has some eyebrows being raised in Orange County, at least the ones that aren’t drawn in and for those who are still able to actually manipulate the muscles in their face, is that Perry isn’t getting anywhere near the attempts he’s used to. He’s only managing 11.4 attempts per 60 minutes, which is down from 14.7 last year and the fifth consecutive season that number had dropped.

All of that adds up to Perry not getting the quality of chances as often as what made him one of the league’s most dangerous snipers. He’s individual expected goals per 60 is 0.5, a career-low by some margin. As you might imagine, Perry’s possession numbers have gone into the toilet along with his scoring metrics. Then again, everything is in the toilet with Perry as that’s his “special place.”

Clearly, Perry has struggled without Ryan Getzlaf, only totaling 60 minutes together so far this season. As we all know, living without your soulmate is tough,  even if the higher connection is between two demented lizards like these two. With Getzlaf so far this season Perry’s possession numbers are almost break-even, which on this current iteration of the Ducks would be pretty high, as the Ducks can’t find their dicks with both hands at the moment. Perry is probably trying to heal Getzlaf’s broken face with his own hands, coming up with whatever eye-of-newt stew he has in the cauldron in the basement of the abandoned construction site he assuredly lives in.

Being 32 doesn’t mean it’s over, of course. Jarome Iginla, whose style Perry’s closely resembles in some ways, had three 30+ goal-seasons after the age of 32. Hossa managed a 30-goal season, a 29-goal one, and 26 last year after the age of 32. But what does appear to be clear is that Perry is going to need a playmaker of Getzlaf’s level to open him up, as he doesn’t quite get to the spots in the same way that he used to.

Perry is signed for three more years after this one, at a hit of $8.6 per season. Even if the Ducks hit the button on a rebuild after this season, no one’s going to rush to take that number unless Perry proves he’s going to have a revival in the sunset. The Ducks only have 10 skaters signed beyond this season, and Silfverberg is UFA after next season. There are going to be some hard decisions coming for GM Bob Murray.

Still, if the Ducks were to eat a portion of Perry’s salary and were determined to start over, Perry can probably still provide second-line scoring for three or four more years. That might be valuable enough to get someone to bite. But the Ducks aren’t there yet. They just might get there sooner than they thought.

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