Game #62 Preview
The game flow may have had all the appeal of a freshly shot snot rocket hanging menacingly from a necessary hand rail, but there were quite a few things to get excited about in this Friday night affair. To the bullets:
– If not for the Fels Motherfuck, which apparently is airborne now, J-F Berube would have had a 43-save shutout. But 42 out of 43 ain’t bad either, especially given the circumstances. This was his first start as a Blackhawk in front of a team that doesn’t have much to play for. He went up against a team that got wedgied so hard against Nashville that all the testosterone in their bodies should have been stuffed into their brains, and yet the Sharks, who still have quite a bit to play for, couldn’t solve him. And it wasn’t terribly flukey either. Berube rarely looked lost out there and even made a few outstanding saves in the third, none more obvious than his highway robbery of Jannik “Don’t Call Me Isaac” Hansen after a brilliant saucer pass from Tomas Hertl. It’s a little early to start the “WHY DON’T DEY TRADE CRAWFERD N LET DAT BER-YUBE GUY START” bus, but he sure looked good tonight.
– Anthony Duclair sure played like he wanted an extension tonight, and if the Hawks’s brass is smart, they should be giving it to him. He was all over the place tonight, assisting on both Rutta’s and Schmaltz’s goals. The Rutta assist was a thing of beauty, as he danced from behind the goal line to feed Rutta, who had to regroup his own backfire to plant the goal. And his steal on a flubbed reception from Mikkel “Not Clarence” Boedker was topped only by his gorgeous backhanded pass through the Royal Road to birthday boy Nick Schmaltz. He topped it all off with an even 50 CF% and a 1.55 CF% Rel. All in all, a solid night for the young man.
– In fact, most of the Hawks contributors were on the young side. Vinnie was all over the ice, even though he didn’t show up on the score sheet. Saad was similar, with a 63+ CF% and an utterly gorgeous power move toward the net right before Schmaltz’s goal. Erik Gustafsson looked decent out there as well, and though the possession numbers are damning, DeBrincat looked poised to score all night. While this season may be shot, there is hope for the future.
– Jan Rutta had himself a decent game off the IR. He’ll never be more than a bottom pairing guy, but when he’s on and not entirely out of gas, he’s a serviceable defenseman. He was persistent on his goal, and he now leads all Hawks D-men with six goals, which is less surprising than it seems, given he was scouted as an offensive defenseman.
– Our Special Irish Boy Connor Murphy was the odd man out among the youngins. Tonight was by far one of his worst performances since October. Between his poor outlet pass in the first, his sloppy interference penalty in the third, and his team-second-worst 40+ CF% (behind only Arty the One Man Party’s 32+), it was simply not one to write home about. Though it is tempting to pin it on Seabrook—whom the Sharks targeted any time he was on the ice—it’s not acceptable to transfer blame if we expect Murphy to be what we want him to be, especially when Seabs isn’t doing anything egregious, as was the case tonight. It’s just one game, but it sure was disappointing.
– I’m ready for one of the moron GMs to throw a 3rd round pick at the Hawks for Tommy Wingels. I get why he’s skating on the top line with Saad and Toews, and I get why he’s on the power play, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. He puked all over his skates on two prime passes to Saad in the first, schlepping it into Saad’s skates on the first and air mailing him on the second. With Saad’s luck this year, neither were likely to go in, but give the man a chance.
–Watching Duncan Keith lose half a step is still weird. His CF% was a 48+ on the night, and one of his most noticeable plays was a botched drop pass at his own blue line in the first that led to a turnover. Yes, he’s getting older, yes, he has to learn to adjust, and yes, he’s playing with Jordan Oesterle, but it’s strange to admit that he’s gone from a for-sure #1 to somewhere closer to a #2/#3 this year.
– The power play is still a fart you shouldn’t have given the benefit of the doubt. It’s a fucking totem for the year.
It sure wasn’t pretty, but it’s two points. I’m far too stubborn and proud to talk about tanking, so two points against a playoff contender is a good night cap.
Onward to Columbus.
Beer du Jour: I went sober for the first, and made up for it with Steel Reserve and Miller High Light tall boys, followed by a glass of the Sacrament on this Lenten Friday.
Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks will put together a win streak for the first time in February.” – Foley
vs. 
RECORDS: Sharks 33-20-8 Hawks 26-27-8
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: WGN
CAGE IN THE WATER: Fear The Fin
I suppose when you’re looking for positive examples for the Hawks and where they go from here, the Sharks wouldn’t be the worst case. They were a dynamite team from 2008-2011, though kept finding a way to fuck up in the spring or just ran into a juggernaut. They stepped back from the main table of the West for a couple years, with a couple first-round exits and a miss altogether, but rebounded for a Final appearance. Then again, they’ve never really won anything so that doesn’t work. They’ve been a part of the discussion though for basically over ten years, so y’know, not all hope is lost. And they’ve done it with basically the same group in the center of it all in Thornton, Pavelski, Couture, and Vlasic.
The thing with this Sharks team is it’s really impossible to tell if they’re any good or just able to kind of float around in the debris that is the Pacific, while everyone else sinks, aside from the Knights.
Metrically, this team is only ok. They’re middle of the pack in team Corsi-percentage and expected goals percentage. Both on the positive side but only barely. What they do well is special teams, as both units are in the top five in the league. Given how thin the margins are in this league, if you can do that you can’t help but win more than you lose. Imagine where the Hawks would be with just like, 10 more power play goals than they have if they were well-placed.
Still, this is not quite the fireworks factory you may remember. Brent Burns, unicorn that he is, leads the team in scoring, but that means the forwards aren’t hitting the crescendos they used to. Yes, Joe Thornton has been hurt but wasn’t near a point-per-game when he wasn’t. Joe Pavelski has been good but only has 15 goals. Only Couture has more than 20 and no one else is even really close. Fuck, even the Hawks have two 20-goal scorers and three more with more goals than Pavelski’s 15.
But the Sharks spread it around better. Nine players have at least 10 goals, and they can roll four lines without having to cover their eyes and pray when one unit is out there. A fourth line of Melker Karlsson-Eric Fehr-Barclay Goodrow might now sound like much but it’s better than most teams can muster. Pavelski moving to the middle in Thornton’s absence has actually been a boon in some ways, as his top line with Meier and Donskoi has been a force. They should probably keep him in the middle when Thornton returns but always seem to think themselves out of that.
The defense is also solid. Vlasic and Braun do the heavy-lifting competition-and-zone-wise so that Burns can do his thing against various bums. DeMelo and Dillon is a functional third pairing, and if they need to go deeper they have Tim HEED! and Paul Martin waiting. Essentially, this is just a solid team everywhere without anyone other than Burns making your retinas burn. Logan Couture doing Logan Couture things is just what happens.
They’ve been able to nail down second in the division even though Martin Jones has only been about league-average. He’s been lava in February though with a .933, and the Sharks saved him for this one so another two-goals-or-less night seems on the cards for the Hawks. Jones’s best work has come on the PK with a .888 SV%, balancing out his just-kinda-there .918 at evens.
Again, there’s nothing to wow you about the Sharks. In a lot of ways, they’re just sort of there, getting in the way of the bar without saying or doing anything. But because they’ll win most nights at special teams they really only have to play you even at 5-on-5 to win most nights. And because Jones isn’t terrible and they have just enough offense in just enough places they’ll probably be better at evens, too. This is how you get where they are without actually doing anything anyone would notice. It’s the American Dream!
More infuriating is that you can easily see them getting to the West Final by just standing there and letting Boxcar Joe fall over. They’ll get either the Kings, Ducks, or Flames in the first round and all are terribly flawed teams, assuming they don’t sink themselves. From there they could see the Knights, whose bubble is going to have to burst at some point, or whatever wild card benefitted from said burst-bubble. Eight wins against say, the Kings and Wild doesn’t sound all that daunting.
For the Hawks, not much news to report. Jan Rutta looks to be back in the lineup at the expense of Carl Dahlstrom. But at this point I give up. JF Berube will make his Hawks debut tonight with Forsberg getting to face his former team tomorrow, because we know hockey coaches love that sort of thing.
The Sharks were paddled last night in Nashville, giving up a touchdown in a 7-1 loss. They’re not out of the woods totally, and you’d expect them to be a little more inspired tonight. The Hawks will get Jones instead of Dell as well. Thornton isn’t around to punch Toews in the back of the head, but it’ll still be a challenge. This is one of those nights where the Hawks are “spoilers.” Can they look a little better than they did agains the Kings? Do they even care if they do?
Game #62 Preview
Brent Burns is crazy. You knew this. You’ve seen the clothes and the beard, and it doesn’t really appear to be an act. Sure, it’s tailored for the cameras and Iphones, but one gets the impression he’d be this way anyway if no one was watching. Hockey has just given him a bigger platform.
Brent Burns is also crazy on the ice. One of the most remarkable statistics of this year is that Brent Burns, a defenseman mind you, leads the league in attempts per 60 at even strength. He’s tied with Vladimir Tarasenko. He averages 22.3 attempts per 60 minutes. You have to go down to 11th to find the next d-man, which is Yohann Auvitu. To find the next d-man who actually matters, you have to go all the way down to 37th for Johnny Boychuk. And he’s at 16.3 attempts per 60. Again, this is at even-strength. Again, this is a defenseman.
And this is not unusual for Burns. Burns led the league last year in attempts per 60. And again, you’d need a telescope to find the next d-man on the list. Burns was fifth the year before that. And this season he’s averaging more attempts than he ever has.
While it obviously doesn’t quite connect that if you lead in attempts you will score a lot, Burns’s uniqueness is what marks him out. He’s headed for another 60+ point season from the back, so you can hardly argue with the results. And it’s not as if Burns is just firing to fire. Burns leads all d-men in shots-on-goal, and by some distance. He has 247, over four per game. The next d-man on the list is Roman Josi at 202. It was the case last year, when Burns led all d-men in shots by nearly 100! Burns already has the first and fourth most shots by a blue-liner in a season, and if he doesn’t get hurt and continues at this pace this season will probably rank in the top three or four as well.
While it looks like Burns’s production has dropped off, and it has, it can be mostly blamed on a 4% shooting-percentage overall and 2.3% at even-strength. His career shooting-percentage would see him with 17 goals instead of the 10 he has now, and the chances he’s getting are of the same quality.
It’s such a unique weapon. Given how offense is produced these days, and how teams defend, if you have a d-man who can open himself up for shots this much you create all that furor in front of the net that result in most of the goals scored now. It’s not much of a shocked that all of one of Joe Pavelski’s goals have come with Brent Burns on the ice, given his usual proximity to the net.
Sadly, Burns may soon be toiling in obscurity if he isn’t already. We know he’s paid $8 million until the universe explodes. And what happens when Burns can’t get these shots off at this rate anymore? Burns is 32, and the fact that he can do this even now is really astonishing. You’d have to think in the next two or three years, the Sharks would have to find a way to get him into a bum-slaying role where he could still shoot this much. We know the end can come quick for mobile d-men.
The Sharks have all of Thornton, Couture, and Pavelski with expiring contracts this year or next. Burns is going to be around for the next iteration of the Sharks when they’re competitive. What he’ll be then is anyone’s guess. For now, he’s truly a phenomena.
Game #62 Preview
@ItWasThreeZero seemed lost and confused and wandering around. We figured that was the best type to answer our questions about the Sharks. Just another Bay Area refugee who can’t understand the outside world.
First look we’ve gotten at the Sharks. Somewhat comfortable in second in the Pacific, and yet we don’t know if they’re actually good? Are they good?
At this point the better question might be “is anyone in the Western Conference good?” Nashville probably is but unless William Karlsson and Erik Haula are gonna keep shooting at Mike Bossy levels for Vegas, the Predators might be the only legitimate Cup contender in the conference. The Sharks are clustered alongside eight or nine other teams with postseason aspirations and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they finished anywhere from second in the Pacific to 11th in the West and out of the playoffs.
The main issue with the Sharks is their lack of offensive firepower as most of their former high-end scoring threats are firmly in the “old as balls” and/or “signed a three-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs last summer” stages of their respective careers. That said this is a deep roster that can capably roll four lines even in the midst of key injuries and has eight NHL options on defense. Combine that with good goaltending and strong special teams and you have a solid if unspectacular team. That might be enough to make the playoffs and even a win a round or two in the West this year.
Kevin Labanc has 31 points this season. Is he a thing?
Labanc is the most recent late-round gem the Sharks’ scouting staff has unearthed and he fits the mold of previous finds like Joe Pavelski. He’s a smaller dude and far from an effortless skater but what he lacks in size and speed he makes up for with puckhandling ability, vision and a heavy, accurate shot. Labanc scored over 250 points in his final two OHL seasons and was a point-per-game player as a 20-year-old in the AHL last year getting his first taste of pro hockey. The kid is legit and seems to have a bright future as a middle-six scoring winger. He’s basically Kirkland Signature Alex DeBrincat.
Timo Meier is getting his first serious run in the NHL. We know there are high hopes for this kid. What have you seen?
Everyone knows the Sharks should have taken Mathew Barzal 9th overall in the 2015 draft. What this answer presupposes is…maybe they shouldn’t have? Okay they definitely should have but that doesn’t mean their actual selection, Timo Meier, hasn’t been a valuable addition to the team. He’s a big kid who always showed a preternatural ability for generating shots in junior and that’s carried over to his nascent NHL career. He currently has the 20th best 5-on-5 shot rate of anyone in the league (min. 200 minutes) and while his actual finishing ability could still use some work he should flirt with 20 goals this year, which is all you can ask for from a 21-year-old winger in his first full professional season.
Joe Pavelski only has 15 goals so far. Is this anything more than Thornton being hurt for part of the season? He is 33, is this the decline?
Pavelski has actually scored five of those 15 goals in the 14 games since Thornton went down with a knee injury so it’s not that. In fact, he’s played his best hockey of the season since being moved back to his natural position of center in Thornton’s absence. Some of his decline in production can be blamed on injuries he was playing through earlier in the year but the reality is Pavelski, like many of the Sharks’ key players, has probably aged out of his scoring prime.
He’s still a useful player but it’s likely he’ll never score 30 goals again and that’s something Doug Wilson has to plan around this summer. Pavelski is still a big name and it might be worth it to the Sharks to get some future assets for him while they still can. On that note it’s a shame the NHL didn’t send players to the Olympics this year because the whining from Toronto over Mike Sullivan or whoever giving Pavelski more minutes than Auston Matthews would have been hilarious.
The Sharks finishing second means they’ll probably see a pretty flawed team in the first round. They then could get Vegas or a wild card if the bubble bursts on the Knights. Could the Sharks simply fall upwards to a conference final?
It would be the most Patrick Marleau thing ever to play through 20 years of increasingly painful heartbreak with the Sharks only to have them turn around and fall ass backwards into a Stanley Cup the year after he leaves, thanks to a weak playoff field and Steven Stamkos’ leg falling off or something. Now I’m convinced this is going to happen.
Game #62 Preview
At this point, we’re pretty sure Doug Wilson is just trolling the world, and when he gets to about the fourth or fifth round in the draft he just takes the dumbest name possible. Any kid who’s come through the Sharks system has had a dumbass name for what feels like 10 years.
Check out the current roster: Melker? Brenden with an e? Joonas? Barclay Fucking Goodrow? Where do you find these people? They even have a Timo, and we all know the only Timo allowed is Timo Perez and that’s only so Hawk Harrelson can yell at him. C’mon Timo!
This is long-standing tradition in the Bay Area, and maybe that’s why it’s happened. There are plenty of annoying people there with annoying fucking names and maybe the Sharks are just trying to appeal to their base. Mirco Mueller? Eriah Hayes? Hell, even Tommy Wingels needs the prologue of “it’s a name not a condition.”
We also have their dumb-shit beards with Thornton and Burns, and we can only hope they get tangled in each other in a playoff game. It’s like the Sharks are trying way too hard to convince you they’re weird and cool. Which is pretty much the whole area around them as well.
On second thought, just blow up the Bay Area. Wait, all we have to do is be patient and it’ll just go away, right? Yeah, ok.
Game #62 Preview
First Screen Viewing
Sharks vs. Predators – 7pm
A possible conference final preview, if you think the Pacific sucks so much and the Knights are not cut out for playoff hockey that the Sharks could simply emerge via default. The Preds have really started to stretch their legs of late but haven’t shaken the Jets in the division. Still, they’re slowly getting away, chief. We still have no idea if the Sharks are actually good or have just been able to hold their breath while everyone bar Vegas sinks around them in the division. Winning in Nashville is always a test. You wouldn’t think they have the speed to keep up with the Preds, so we’ll find out.
Second Screen Viewing
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
If it’s speed and goals you want, then this is for you. The Islanders have essentially become the Loyola Marymount of the NHL, and have pretty much given up on even trying to play defense. They gave up over 40 shots three times in a week! Now that the Leafs are removing the restrictor plates from their team, they’re a little more fun, too. It’s unlikely this one is going to end up 2-1.
Other Games
Wild vs. Devils – 6pm
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers – 6pm
Rangers vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Lightning vs. Senators – 6:30
Sabres vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Capitals vs. Panthers – 6:30
Avalanche vs. Oilers – 8pm
Flames vs. Coyotes – 8pm
Stars vs. Kings – 9:30
