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Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks Q&A: Alexis Boucher

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1659 0

Whenever the Hawks and Bolts get together, we bother our friend Alexis Boucher (@Alexis_b82). When we stop talking about Tetsuya Naito, we get around to hockey.

The Maple Leafs got all the press over the summer (shocking we know), and the Bruins always seem to have the East coast bias thing going. But the Lightning are the defending division champs, both regular season and playoffs, and were an unlucky whisker away from being in the Final themselves. Is there any reason to think they aren’t the favorites again?

I’m understandably biased when it comes to this question, but barring extensive injuries or incredibly bad luck it’s hard not to pick the Bolts as one of the heavy favorites out of the East. Their incredibly talented core group is still around and younger players have another year of experience under their belts. They know how well they’ve done over the last several years but the fact that they’ve fallen short isn’t lost on them. Before the home opener earlier this month Steven Stamkos was asked about the 2017-18 Division championship banner that had been hung in the rafters and if there was any discussion about it among the team. The captain said there wasn’t any talk about it because it wasn’t the one they wanted. This group remains hungry to finally fulfill their promise and hopefully this will be the year they make it happen.

It seems like the Lightning are always unveiling a spiky new youngster who contributes big time. Last year it was Yanni Gourde and Brayden Point. Anyone this year?

Right winger Mathieu Joseph made the Lightning’s roster out of training camp and he’s already been making a name for himself. Drafted in 2015, Joseph had an incredibly strong first pro season with the Syracuse Crunch in 2017-18. He plays with a tremendous amount of speed and tenacity on the ice which fits in well with Tampa’s style. He has had incredibly chemistry early on a line with another promising young player Anthony Cirelli and the veteran Alex Killorn.

Any chance Mikhail Sergachev earns more of a role than just third-pairing this season?

The sky certainly seems to be the limit when it comes to Sergachev’s potential. He’s so good that it’s easy to forget he’s only 20-years-old. He continues to see a decent amount of time on the second power play unit as well. As he continues to learn and grow it’s not out of the question that he breaks into Tampa’s top four.

What’s the story behind Steve Yzerman stepping down? Is he just going to get that much money from the Red Wings? Is this a worry in Tampa?

When the Yzerman news broke so close to the start of training camp it was more surprising than anything. Apparently, he wanted to tell all of the players when they arrived but it was shocking nonetheless. Not a lot of details have come out besides Yzerman’s desire to be closer to his family. His wife and daughters have remained based in Michigan throughout his tenure as GM and that can’t be easy. It would seem he’s destined to rejoin the Red Wings in some capacity down the line but it’s also difficult to see him stepping away from the team that he has built into a perennial contender before they reach their goal of winning the Stanley Cup. There’s a lot of unknowns in this scenario but Yzerman has definitely left them in a position to succeed. Julien BriseBois has been under his tutelage for a quite some time and is more than a worthy successor.

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Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Dan Girardi Is Terrible And It’s Ok To Say So

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1509 0

If Dan Girardi played baseball, we’d get a FanGraphs piece, and a Prospectus Piece, probably something by Jason Stark, and certainly a Joe Sheehan newsletter about how bad he is and how he’s killing his team. Think of all the Jason Heyward stuff you’ve seen and apply. If he played football, there would be talking heads on Sportscenter debating what the problem is with the coaching staff that keeps running him out there.

And yet, no one in the main circle of hockey media ever tells you this guy sucks. That’s because somewhere along the line, a while ago now, he was given the label of “warrior.” Which means he blocks a lot of shots, because he has to, because he’s neither quick enough to get it back or to stop opponents from taking it from him nor is he skilled enough to pass it to someone who can do something better with it. Also he cross-checks guys around the net after whistles. The Hockey Grizzled go tumescent for that shit.

Here are Girardi’s relative-Corsi marks the past four seasons: -3.7, -5.2, -8.3, -5.1. His relative xGF% marks: -1.7, -1.0, -4.5, -3.5. The two not-awful marks are probably a result of the offensive talent that bails him out in Tampa, because you saw what happened with the Rangers.

And yet you’ll never hear a Pierre McGuire or anyone close to the game say so. Girardi actively hurts his team, but no one in hockey criticizes all that heavily, unless they’re the Toronto media in which case everyone’s guilty, because really no one in hockey is all that far from getting hired themselves. These guys making the decisions and those commenting on them have all been drunk in Moosejaw together or something, and hence none of them can be wrong.

You know what you’re seeing with Girardi. They know. But only we say. You always have to look a little harder for the truth in hockey.

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Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1354 0

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Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1382 0

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Game #7 – Hawks 4, Jackets 1: The Osiris Of This

By Sam Fels October 20, 2018 1915 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

That’s the first of the roughly 40 more Corey Crawford wins the Hawks will need to actually make the playoffs, give or take. Ok, maybe that’s pushing it. Let’s say 35.

The analysis doesn’t have to be too deep on this one. The Hawks weren’t very good. Their goalie was, and he was better than the Jackets could muster, which was a lot. We saw this game a lot last year in the first three months. The Hawks make a ton of mistakes at either blue line, and then they’re scrambling defensively. When they weren’t, they were getting pinned in their own end even if they were set up. And Crawford bailed them out every time, save Kane falling asleep on a 4-on-4 to let Zach Werenski sashay right down the slot. Any other chance, Crawford was the danger.

Let’s get to it.

The Two Obs

-As I said before Thursday’s game, I wasn’t that worried about Crow’s first couple, or even few, games. I figured the adrenaline would take over, or the excitement of being back after 10 months out. We’ll see what the fifth game, or 10th game, 0r 20th game is when that juice isn’t quite there and the rust is still to be worked out.

But these first two have been awfully exciting. He’s looked sharp. He’s making the saves that only he and a handful of other goalies make consistently. He’s giving his flawed and learning team a chance. He’s anticipating. There was one odd-man rush, out of the gaggle that the Jackets had, where Panarin slid it to Werenski, but Crow was already there. He was in control, didn’t overcommit, and simply let the puck nestle into his waiting chest. The instincts clearly haven’t dulled.

-Right, moving beyond the Crow-gushing, no matter how fun it is. The Hawks were woeful with the puck tonight, and it was a glaring example of why they’re going to struggle so much at times this year.

Any hint of scouting will tell you the Hawks will not dump the puck in. And that’s fair, they don’t really have enough wingers to go and get it back consistently. They want to have control when they enter the zone, as at least their top six is far better that way. But teams are just going to stand up at their line every time, and cause turnovers there. And there’s a huge gap between the forwards and defense, because the Hawks defense is slow. You can beat at least four of them to the outside whenever you want, and Gustafsson’s awareness can be such you’ll have no idea where he’s going to be at any given time.

So that leads to odd-man after odd-man the other way in games. Also, the Hawks forwards aren’t that fast, and given where they lose the puck, they can’t get back to even things out. Maybe, and boy is this a large maybe, when Murphy and Forsling are healthy the defense can be a little more aggressive and get up there and cut plays off at the source. But that seems awfully wishful.

-That wasn’t the Hawks only problem. They weren’t very good with the puck in their own end either. They still try and play their way out of the zone far too often, instead of just getting it out and at least attempting to let the forwards skate onto it. They don’t have the skill to pull that off most times. So they end up jammed up in their own zone a lot.

-It didn’t help that there were three new lines, none of which really made any sense. But we’re tired of singing this song, and you’re tired of hearing it.

-On the plus side, I thought David Kampf had a very effective game. It’s easy to notice him because he’s so quick, but he was forcing things in the right way tonight and using that speed to cause problems for the Columbus d-men. I’m fairly sure he’s a useful bottom-six piece.

-The third goal was art, and the product of two players–Seabrook and Kane–who have been together so long they just know where each other will be without looking.

-Your only Hawk above water in possession was Brandon Saad.

-For most of the 3rd, Joel Quenneville was double-shifting Kane. This is why and others have called for the Hawks and many other teams to dress 11 forwards and seven d-men. Why give the eight minutes or whatever to creatures of the trash like Andrea Martinsen or John Hayden when you can give your best players like Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, Schmaltz, even Kahun an extra few shifts. If it results in an extra goal here and there you never know how much difference that can make. You’re already doing it basically, so why even pretend?

Onwards…

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – October 20th

By Sam Fels October 20, 2018 1081 0

First Screen Viewing

Blues vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

It’s kind of a weak schedule tonight in the National Hockey League (sky point Bill Pidto…wait, he’s not dead), so we’ll go with the Leafs skating circles around a bewildered Blues team. The news today has that St. Louis finally discovered that Jay Bouwmeester has been a cadaver fit for only medical school usage for about three years and have healthy scratched him. That won’t make the Blues blue line mobile enough to deal with the unholy hell that the Leafs top six has been so far this year, but it’s always good when science and critical thought make an appearance in Missouri. The Leafs are coming off getting humbled by the Penguins, whom their fans think are washed up. So that was hilarious. There’s nothing wrong with a little schadenfreude, friends.

Second Screen Viewing

Lightning vs. Wild – 7pm

Again, it’s slim pickens on offer tonight, so we’ll go with the Hawks’ opponents tomorrow as they invade Minnesota. Somehow the Wild have won three games, we’re not sure how, because they’ve been exposed most nights. Devan Dubnyk is dong the heavy lifting, which is usually the case. The Bolts only blemish is to the Canucks, you figure that one out, and they’ve basically destroyed the three other teams they’ve played, including putting eight on the Jackets. The Wild fancy themselves fast. The Lightning actually are.

Other Games

Canadiens vs. Senators – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Panthers – 6pm

Bruins vs. Canucks – 9pm

Ducks vs. Knights – 9pm

Predators vs. Oilers – 9pm

Islanders vs. Sharks – 9:30

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Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Preview – Turn On The Water

By Matt McClure October 20, 2018 1868 0

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Game Time: 6:00PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NHLN US, TVA-S, WGN-AM 720
Street Fight Radio: The Cannon

After basically the entire work week off in an unofficial early season bye, the Hawks venture to Ohio for the second and only road game of another thee-in-four-nights stretch that sees them facing down a Columbus team that still isn’t quite sure what the hell it actually is at this point.

At 4-2-0 to this point in the seaoson, the Jackets are at least making a fist of it while unholy terror Seth Jones remains absent from the blue line. To this point, they’ve beaten Detroit, Florida, Philadelphia, and Colorado, with only the latter of which actually playing well to start the season, as their other three victories have been over teams that are presently total messes. Their losses came to a speedy and spiky Hurricanes team, and the Bolts who dropped an 8-burger on them. So for right now, it’s fair to call them the middling team that they are with Jones out.

That’s not to say they’re bereft of any kind of punch. Erstwhile Style Boy Artemi Panarin has put up 9 points in 6 games so far to pace the Jackets, and is in full on “Fuck you, pay me” mode with his bridge deal coming to a close at the end of this year and lacking the mega-paper he’s seeking, which the Jackets seem slightly hesitant to give him. He flanks former first rounder P-L Dubois with Cam Atkinson on the other side, and this line has shown plenty of speed and creativity in the early going. The Jackets’ middle six has been getting plowed over on the possession ledger however, with the de facto second line of Duclair (remember him?), Wennberg, and SANDPAPER Captain Nick Foligno and the third line of Boone Jenner, Riley “Not A Purported Wiener Tucker” Nash, and Josh Anderson contributing intermittent offense, but certainly not enough to balance out the top line and force opposing coaches to pause when trying to get matchups. The fourth line of Sonny Milano (OHHHH!), Lukas Sedlak, and Dane Oliver Bjorkstrand has at least tilted the ice to spell the other three units.

With Jones out on the blue line, Zach Werenski has been partnered with David Savard, and they’ve been getting their skulls kicked it at a 41% clip, and if Werenski isn’t pushing the play on offense, he’s not a world beater in his own end, particularly when he is basically covering for Quebecois Wisniewski as a partner. Markus Nutivaara, a seventh round pick and a 24 year old and not a Finnish candy bar, however, has been the beneficiary of the top line taking a pounding, and flipped the ice at 60% clip with the will-he-ever-get-his-shit-together Ryan Murray. Adam Clendening (remember him too?) has landed here because he’s a right handed defenseman with the vague threat of offense in his game, and he and Scott Harrington have been turned into paste in the 20 even strength minutes they’ve played together on the third pairing.

Long the strength of this team, two time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky has had a slow start to the season, with only an .888 at evens and an .875 overall. Clearly those are not up to his high standards of play, and if that continues, that type of goaltending will torpedo just about any team, let alone one that’s been as reliant as the Jackets have been on Bob. But for as much as he’s slumped, he’s still fully capable of power-windmill breakdancing in the crease all night long on any opponent, as Bobrovsky remains one of the best combinations of size, athleticism, and positional soundness in the sport.

As for the Men Of Four Feathers, while their first regulation loss was probably overdue, they certainly didn’t play terribly against the Yotes on Thursday, or at least the names that are supposed to matter didn’t. The ones everyone expects to be terrible gift wrapped all three goals for Glendale, and Corey Crawford’s return to the cage didn’t have the storybook finish that was hoped for despite looking as solid as can be asked of a goalie after having not played in over 300 days. He’ll get the nod again tonight with a sterner test, particularly from the top line with Panarin’s ability to pick corners as a “bad shot maker”. In front of Crawford will be the same defensive configuration as the past few games, which means it’s duck and cover time with Manning and Rutta on the ice, particularly unsheltered on the road.

Among the forwards, because the Hawks actually lost, Quenneville predictably used it as an excuse to do what he’s presumably been dying to do since the start of camp, and that’s move Anisimov back to the #2 center slot between Schmaltz and Garbage Dick. Schmaltz has been scuffling a little bit, but having Alexandre “2009 Troy Brouwer Redux” Fortin continually biff chances tilts the scoring sheet a little bit, and Wide Dick Artie isn’t the best answer to sparking Schmaltz long term. Fortin was platooning with Martinsen at last report this morning, which results in the splitting up of the speedy Saad-Kruger-Kampf line that could use some more time in a true shutdown role to see if it really could end up being a thing. Instead, Chris Kunitz will play with Saad and Kampf, and Kruger will get some combination from the Fortin/Hayden/Martinsen turd grab bag.

While John Tortorella is assuredly A Moron, he’s not so entrenched that he doesn’t know that at home he’ll have some advantageous matchups that can be found for his top line. The key will be to minimize that damage and hope that Crawford makes some of the saves that Cam Ward wasn’t or couldn’t make, and that at the other end each save that Bobrovsky makes isn’t the one that snaps him out of the funk he’s in. Let’s go Hawks.

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Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Spotlight: Jarmo’s Crucible

By Sam Fels October 20, 2018 1694 0

It’s hard to think of a GM more in a jam than Jarmo Kekalainen. Sure, we’ve seen GMs and teams play chicken with a free agent to be in the past. But two? And the two best players on a team? That’s rare indeed. And the fortunes of the Blue Jackets for the next few years pretty much hang in the balance.

To review: both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are going to be unrestricted free agents when this season ends. Panarin has made it quite clear that he’s not coming back, as it seems his destiny to be an overpaid Ranger or Panther. Bobrovsky has at least talked to the Jackets about an extension, but those talks have gone nowhere.

We’ll take the case of Bobrovsky first. He’a two-time Vezina winner, and no goalie with that kind of track record has hit the open market in recent memory. As of right now, the highest paid goalie in the league is Carey Price at $10.5 million. Price only has one Vezina, and has only done slightly better than Bobrovsky in the playoffs. Price has appeared in one conference final, never a Stanley Cup Final, and the Habs have basically been early-round chum for anyone they’ve run across. Bobrovsky’s agent could look at that $10.5 figure and go from there, and we mean go up.

Complicating matters even more for the Jackets is while they will gain the space of Panarin’s $6 million salary on the cap, they also have to pay Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray. That’s certainly going to be more than $6 million. The Jackets only have $5 million in space now as it is. It’s hard to identify what they can jettison to create more space. Nick Foligno? He’s the captain. Cam Atkinson might be the only top line forward they have after Panarin’s saunter to the door.

Which makes you wonder if they can afford to lose Bobrovsky at all. Goalies are almost certainly criminally underpaid considering their worth, and the Jackets offense may need some serious propping up once Panarin has bid adieu.

The other problem is that Bobrovsky’s appearances in the playoffs haven’t exactly been gleaming. The Jackets have never seen the second round. Bob’s playoff record in Columbus is a .898 SV% and 3.37 GAA. Now, to be sure, in two of those series the Jackets were far overmatched by the Penguins. You could argue they were by the Capitals last year, but they took the first two games in DC. And then Bob spent the next four games chucking up a toad. But a goalie is a playoff dog until he isn’t, and then what?

You don’t find another Bobrovsky on the market or in the system. And you don’t go anywhere without a goalie. Yes, he’s 30, but the aging curve for goalies is longer than skaters. He’s probably got four or five good years left. If this is the Jackets’ window, aren’t you closing it by losing him?

Panarin’s case is different. He’s gone. There’s almost no indication he’ll ever consider staying in Ohio. So logic would dictate that you ship him out for what you can get at the deadline. But it’s not that simple. The Jackets aren’t rebuilding, and you never see player-for-player deals at the deadline. They’re at least quite rare. Things will change, but there are contending teams who could use a dynamic scoring winger. Maybe more will develop. But what do those teams have to give up off the roster? The Jackets are set at top pairing with Werenski and Seth Jones. They like Nutivaara and Ryan Murray beyond that. Could they find another goalie in return for Panarin? Nearly impossible you’d think.

Overriding both of these is that the Jackets have to win, and soon. This is a fanbase aching for success, and if it sees its two most accomplished players blast noogies for nothing and without so much as a playoff series win, you’d have a tough time convincing all of them the Jackets can build a long-term winner.

It may come down to how likely Jarmo thinks it is for the Jackets to get out of the division. The Penguins could be had if Matt Murray never finds the form of his first two years. The Capitals have gotten a touch older and are still the squad that needed just about everything to go right last spring. The Rangers and Islanders aren’t a concern. The Devils and Flyers really could be anything. The Metro is open.

Maybe you take your run at a conference final and reset in the summer. But the Jackets don’t have a ton of cap space to do so.

We don’t have any answers. Jarmo might not either.

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Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Q&A: Alison Lukan Of The Athletic

By Sam Fels October 20, 2018 1723 0

Alison covers the Jackets for The Athletic. You can follow her on Twitter @AlisonL.

Let’s get the big one out of the way. There’s just no way the Jackets can win with this Panarin and Bobrovsky situation, right? Is the hope that a long playoff run might convince them to stay? Or is it something of a foregone conclusion they’re both headed for the exit and the Jackets are just going to take a run with them while they can?

These are the questions that will haunt the team all season until there is a resolution. Both players are potentially big losses but for different reasons so let me address each player in kind. First, Panarin has expressed a desire to be elsewhere. He hasn’t articulated anything he doesn’t like about Columbus or the organization but he prefers to be somewhere else. Some reports have that “somewhere else” to be a big city, possibly near water. So, if that’s the case, you have to balance seeing if the player changes his mind about wanting to be in Columbus long term with the need to move him to get any possible kind of return. This is tricky because the Jackets are just starting their window of “going for it” so getting just draft picks or futures in return wouldn’t be ideal – but it’s hard to get a “play now” guy in trade when Panarin is potentially just a rental. It’s also hard when teams know they may only need to wait to get him in July for nothing other than what the sign him to contractually.

As for Bobrovsky, it’s a slightly different scenario. The player and the organization have had contentious negotiations in the past, and this is a two-time Vezina winner who surely wants big-time money (and term of course). The organization doesn’t yet know for sure that Bobrovsky is as strong in post-season play (although that certainly isn’t only a Bobrovsky question), and the goaltender turned 30 this year, so how much of your overall salary do you invest for possibly eight years? Bobrovsky also has a no-trade clause in his current contract.

So to summarize, I think it’s more likely that Bobrovsky finishes out the season as a Blue Jacket. There’s a “chance’ one or both stay past this season, but from an asset management perspective, without a change of heart, I don’t know that you can lose both for nothing, so Panarin would likely be moved.

How big of a miss is Seth Jones?

There’s a reason Jones was an All-Star and in the Norris conversation last year (and should be this year, in my opinion). Jones is smart, athletic, and responsible in all areas of the ice. That means he is very missed and his absence has highlighted the growth that Zach Werenski has in front of him defensively. His absence also shows up as a strain on the remaining defensemen both in terms of big minutes and two-way play. The good news is that Jones is now three weeks into an estimated 4-6 week recovery period.

Markus Nutivaara is a name you don’t hear much outside of Ohio (and no one can spell without looking), but the Jackets seem pretty high on him. Why’s that?

“Nuti” as he’s called, is a hidden gem, in my opinion. This is a seventh-round pick who couldn’t even make the top teams in the leagues back in Finland but one who has proven to be a perfect fit for Tortorella’s offensive defenseman (or “rover”) style. He is confident and not afraid to jump into play in the offensive zone. Adding to that, Nuti has improved year over year and has found a highly complimentary partner in Ryan Murray. When Jones is healthy, with Nuti and Murray, you have two defensive pairings that are solid defensively and quite lethal offensively also.

Pierre-Luc Dubois and his extraneous first name put up 49 points in his rookie year last year. Should we expect a major leap this term?

I don’t expect a massive leap, but only because his rookie year was so strong. Also, PLD plays with Panarin so any change in the status of that player obviously impacts Dubois’ ability to produce. What I do expect to see is improvement in play in the corners and winning battles – these are things the centerman worked on this off-season. He remains the Jackets’ 1C right now.

The Metro Division isn’t as tough as it might seem on the surface, with the Caps and Pens aging, the Flyers unable to get out their own way, and the Rangers and Islanders rebuilding. Can the Jackets actually get out of it in the spring? Would that be enough?

This is a team that needs to start making an impact in the post-season. They will likely get there, but now, as the cliche goes, it’s really what happens there that matters.

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