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Game #10 – Rangers vs. Hawks Spotlight: Not Being The Knicks

By Sam Fels October 25, 2018 1685 0

It’s hard to believe, but it’s only two seasons ago that the Rangers were a playoff team. In ’16-’17, the Rangers had 102 points, won a playoff round over the Canadiens, and were bounced by the Ottawa Senators. It feels like it happened in a different lifetime. Maybe because it was just another incarnation of the same, nondescript Rangers team they’d been rolling out for a decade, filled with small, quick forwards who just aren’t THAT good and Hank. Maybe it was because they beat one garbage team in the playoffs and then lost to another. Either way, it doesn’t feel like it was in recent memory.

Credit to Jeff Gorton. Because most teams would have seen a second-round trip as a platform to keep trying to go for it, make some signings or trades, and believe you’re right there. How many have done so? The Habs haven’t even gotten that far and they keep doing it. The Senators did the same, look where they are. We could keep going.

Gorton wasn’t fooled. He had an aging team that had maxed out that was looking at a slow, painful death. Last season didn’t start out well, and that’s all the proof he needed. It’s kind of amazing how he got this past James Dolan, who has watched his basketball team limp around like incomplete roadkill for the better part of 20 years now. Then again, Dolan doesn’t give a shit about the Rangers, so you can do just about anything as the Rangers GM. Still, MSG just completed a complete renovation and you’d think ownership wouldn’t exactly be comfortable with a couple seasons of meaningless product. And yet here we are.

Gorton has done what he can so far. Rick Nash, that playoff dynamo that teams were lusting after at the deadline for reasons they’ll be recounting at the bar in five years when they’re explaining their firing, turned into Ryan Lindgren and a first-round pick as well as a couple pieces. Ryan McDonagh, the biggest bauble Gorton had to flog, turned into two prospects (Libor Hajek and Howden), another 1st round pick for this past draft, and at least a useful player in Vlad Namestnikov. Those two trades along replenished a pretty empty pipeline.

Where Gorton goes from here is a question. Clearly they want to get into Jack Hughes range, but probably have enough players and Henrik Lundqvist from getting that close. Chris Kreider is a player a lot of teams would want at the deadline. Fuck, look what Nash netted and Kreider actually bothers to breathe in the playoffs, and his value is at its peak with another year on his deal after this one. But he’s only 27 and still quite effective, and could be part of the next good Rangers team. Kevin Shattenkirk is signed for another two years at $6.6M and is 29. Right-handed, puck-movers are basically caviar at the deadline. Could he get someone to bite?

Kevin Hayes is in the last year of his contract, and you can always sell some drunk GM on a big player who can at least make a fist of it at center (and be quite drunk himself. All hail Captain Stairwell!). Mats Zucarello also will be a free agent and is 31. He can score. Everyone needs scoring, just like everyone hates birds.

At this point, if you’ve started rebuilding there’s no reason to half-ass it. That’s what their roommate in MSG have been doing, and they’re a national joke. Not that any hockey team could be a national joke, but you get the idea. They’re even timed well, because the Penguins and Capitals won’t be able to do this forever and the Jackets are about to lose their two best players. Three years from now the field could be open for the Rangers.

Good thing Dolan doesn’t care about hockey, huh?

Game #10 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #10 – Rangers vs. Hawks Q&A: Beth Boyle Machlan

By Sam Fels October 25, 2018 1671 0

Beth Machlan writes in more places than we can possibly list. Follow her @bethmachlan and find out for yourself.

It’s obviously going to be a long year on Broadway for the Rangers who are in the first full season of a total rebuild. Who are what are you watching on a nightly basis to make you feel good about the future?

Frankly, we’re watching David Quinn. For one: he coaches. You can hear him screaming through the broadcast. He’s used more timeouts in the last four weeks than Vigneault did in his whole time here. This is new For Rangers fans, who are used to AV, who was Sphinx-like in his silence, if Sphinxes were stupid and wasted the careers of two Hall of Fame goaltenders. Quinn tells the players what’s expected of them, and he tells the press what he’s doing. It’s a whole new world. He also apparently takes the babies, Chytil and Howden, out to breakfast on game days. THANKS DAD!

Speaking of which, Filip Chytil and Brett Howden are a lot of fun to watch, and they give us dreams of an actual future …

Chris Kreider is off to a hot start. it feels like trade rumors swirl about him every season, but is this the time he goes? He’s only got this year and next on his deal and is in the middle of his prime at 27…

I don’t see Kreider going. The Blueshirt Banter chat votes Hayes. Seriously, though, every season the NYR broadcast team announces that it’s Kreider’s year. He was great last season but then had that major surgery; he also has nights when he’s invisible, which is pretty impressive for a guy who’s 6’3” and 220. Still, I hope we keep him. He and Mika Zibanejad and whoever they stick on the RW — Zuccarello, earlier this week, with great results — are among our few consolations this season.

Neal Pionk seems to be turning some heads.

Right? Imagine how many he’d turn if he wasn’t stapled to Marc Staal.

Confirm what we’ve always claimed: Brendan Smith is the worst player in the league, right?

Did I mention Marc Staal?

Dude. Smith has made a hell of a comeback, really. He was a major casualty of AV’s coaching style — “I won’t tell you what I want, but I’ll bench you until you give it to me” — as well as who the hell knows what going on in his personal life — but it’s past now. He now looks like a second pair defenseman (for NYR, anyway) as opposed to just a pile of cash lit on fire. I also appreciate scrappiness that actually responds to circumstances on the ice as opposed to the fans’ “old timey” desires.

Are Rangers fans, a notoriously cantankerous bunch as any group of New Yorkers tend to be, really understanding of what’s happening here and how long it will take?

No. But then Hank announced that they’re playing to win, so who are we to judge?

Game #10 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #10 – Rangers vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Cody McLeod, Protecting The Kids From…Himself

By Sam Fels October 25, 2018 1899 0

There’s this idea that doesn’t really apply anymore, that teams that are rebuilding and full of kids need a bodyguard. That if you don’t have some hulking/drooling goober on your team, the players that will eventually comprise what you hope is your next winning team are going to be assaulted and mugged all over the ice, ruining their innocence and perception of the world and then they’ll dye their hair purple and write poetry while listening to A Place To Bury Strangers all damn day.

That’s just about the only reason we can figure Cody McLeod, who has struggle to spell “cat” his entire career, is here. Of course, these days the only players who would “run” at the Filip Chytils, Brett Howdens, and the future kids who will come up for air later this season or next are the Cody McLeods of the world. The game moves too fast for anyone who actually has a job to do to worry about making some statement on a kid’s face. Also, the league is getting younger, so really any kid in the lineup is going to be on the ice against players that are merely a couple years older than him.

The only idiots that these kids have to fear are fourth-line/third-pairing veterans who are barely hanging onto their careers by their fingernails and will do anything to get their coach to not notice they can’t move and they treat the puck like ebola. And there are just enough coaches that are impressed by putting a stick in someone’s ribs when they’re not looking, but they’re fading in numbers as well.

In fact, the NHL might even be a safer place for young players than the AHL, due to the speed the game keeps reaching at the top level. Meanwhile, the “A” is still kind of filled with dunderheads who not only could be out of the league, but soon Beer League might be their only hockey outlet. That’s a high level of desperation to do anything to continue to not have to go work in the real world. A good portion of the guys yelling at you at Johnny’s were these guys.

We can’t blame McLeod. He gets to keep earning an NHL salary, and there’s really nothing else he can do on the ice. He’s not turning into Esa Tikkanen anytime soon. Sort of a weird lesson for the kids, though.

Game #10 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #10 – Rangers vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels October 25, 2018 1372 0

Game #10 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #10 – Rangers vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels October 25, 2018 1375 0

Game #10 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Into The Great Wide Open

By Sam Fels October 24, 2018 1799 0

This generally happens every October. As we know, the NHL season tends to be wacky and fun and Seussian in the first month as teams scramble to entrench themselves into their standings position. We know they pretty much have to because of how hard it is to make up ground late in the season, and the percentage of teams that are in the playoffs spots at Thanksgiving that stay there (just north 0f 75% as of last check). You can’t entrench by gaining one point. You need two. And you generally need to keep the other team from getting one. So teams actually go for it. If this is where you’d ask wouldn’t this be solved season-long if wins were worth three points you can just shove it because your logic has no place in the hockey world! Put your telescope away, Galileo! (He used one, right?)

So scoring is up so far. But is it simply that? Will teams pull back, combined with boredom, in December and beyond to give us the turgid, uninspiring morass we’ve come to know and…well, know? I’m not so sure.

The numbers are there. Teams are averaging 3.11 goals per game after 2.97 last year. Though this is just about the same jump we saw from two seasons ago to last, which was 2.77 to 2.97. Maybe it’s just the way things are going? That’s a bit simplistic, so let’s dive a little deeper.

There are four teams averaging over 35 shots per game, when no team managed it for the total of last year (topping the list are the Hurricanes who are averaging a simply bonkers 41 shots per game so far). However, only 22 teams are averaging over 30 shots per game, while 28 managed it last year. So the high-end, the more volatile selection, is higher. But overall there aren’t more shots being taken from last year. In fact, teams are averaging slightly less shots than last year, 31.3 to 31.8.

As far as overall attempts, there are five teams averaging over 65 attempts per 60 minutes at evens, and nine over 60. Last year, only five teams got over 60 per 60 (isn’t that neat?), and none over 65. So there are more teams attempting more shots, but that doesn’t mean that many are getting through. That would suggest there is more action, just not that much more important action.

Teams are getting faster and copying all the time, so you do see more teams trying to replicate what the Penguins, Knights, Predators have done over the past couple seasons. A couple teams have pivoted to more aggressive coaches. The Stars went from Ken Hitchcock to Jim Montgomery, and they’ve seen a slight uptick in both attempts and shots per game. Bill Peters went from Carolina to Calgary, but they’ve actually seen a downtick in both categories. His replacement in Raleigh, Rod Brind’Amour, certainly has not overseen a downtick. The Coyotes have changed their system, and Ottawa and Montreal at least have tweaked theirs.

The number that jumps out most so far though is that team SV% has dropped .912 to 908 this year. Some will attribute this to the new goalie pads, and that probably plays a role. Some will attribute it to some of the league’s better goalies getting off to slow starts, or not being around at all in the case of Corey Crawford or Roberto Luongo. Jonathan Quick has been abhorrent in LA, Cam Talbot is still stepping on his tongue in Edmonton, Marc-Andre Fleuy has been pretty woeful in Vegas (and really, who could have seen that coming?), Holtby terrible in DC as he was at the start of last year, Martin Jones has been bad, Sergei Bobrovsky worse, and Connor Hellebuyck has been mediocre (say it like Immortan Joe).

Still, they can’t all be off to slow starts, right? There must be something.

Combine that with how many teams simply whiffed on their goaltending decisions. Trusting Mike Smith in Calgary was always going to end in ennui. Jake Allen in St. Louis…well, you know what we’d write here. Did they really thing Carter Hutton would work in Buffalo? Jimmy Howard has been an anchor for a while, which is good for a team trying to bottom out like the Wings (wait, they’re doing what?). The decision to stick with Brian Elliot in Philly is why Gritty looks like that.

The amount of teams getting steady goaltending right now is pretty thin. The Rangers and Ducks are, and those teams both suck eggs. The Stars are getting good work from Ben Bishop. If you want to argue the Hawks now that Crow is back, I guess you can but we’ll need more than the three games Crow has gotten. Dubnynk is doing his normal thing, Kinkaid has been really good in New Jersey, and Varlamov has been a mutant in Colorado (not hard for him). Throw the Lightning, Predators, and Canucks on the list. Essentially, 10 teams are getting average goaltending at even-strength. One of them is Calgary that has Rittich making up for the toxic waste Mike Smith is leaving behind. Minnesota and Anaheim are getting incredible goaltending, but they’re also giving up the most shots in the game. So there are still goals to be had against them. Without their goaltending, the commissioner would have to step in and relegate them.

But that’s not all of it. Could it be the pressure and chances these goalies are asked to stand up against is higher? Yes, it appears that way. Currently, eight teams have an expected goals-against per 60 minutes over 2.8. Only one team did that last year, which was the Rangers. Still though, deeper you go it’s about the same. Nine teams had an xGA/60 last year over 2.5. This year that number is 11 (it always comes back to Nigel Tuffnel on this blog). A difference to be sure, but not huge.

There clearly isn’t one answer to this. Everyone hopes it sticks around, though.

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks 1, Hawks 3: Nobody Told Me You Could Die From Bliss

By Adam Hess October 23, 2018 2410 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

There is something so satisfying about this kind of Blackhawks win. Were they perfect? No. But they were the better team on the ice from start to finish. The players you want to see step up and play well did just that. Corey Crawford did his thing. Sure, it was the Ducks. That doens’t make this kind of win any less fun. Let’s get to the bullets:

– The Hawks played well in the first period, but there was enough within the period that made me say “yuck” that I almost choked laughing when Chris Boden and Jamal Mayers posited that it was the best period of the season for the Hawks. The breakouts that were such a major issue for the Hawks against the Lightning on Sunday were an issue yet again, and if the Hawks have any real strategy on getting through the neutral zone it was hardly on display tonight, let alone in the first period. If they can’t have one guy – usually Kane or Toews, it seems – carry the puck all the way through the zone, they’re completely lost, and it seems no one is capable of making a good pass in that zone, including 19 and 88. The Ducks love to sit back and let the other team charge at them, which is incredibly stupid, but tonight it worked, because the Hawks were still having trouble getting into their own zone.

– This was another strong game for Saad, who finally cut off the snake’s head and got himself on the scoresheet with his first goal this season. He was dominant throughout the night as well, skating with a fire under his ass and playing a piss and vinegar kinda game. He was all over the ice in the final minutes as well, as the Hawks attempted to close it out. He consistently got pressure on puck carriers and was able to get the empty netter for goal number two of the night and season. The optimism around Saad remains high nearly across the board for the FFUD crew, so I don’t think anyone was near the panic button on him at all, but him finally scoring feels like a bit of a weight off (more for him than us, I’m sure) and hopefully he continues to play this way. If he does, the production is going to come to him.

– Another point on Saad – can people please stop bringing up the fuckin’ Panarin trade every time he does something good. You don’t have to validate the trade, and bringing it up only lends credence to the idea that it was a bad trade, which it wasn’t. You don’t have to convince people Saad is good – he is. Is he the offensive dynamo that Panarin is? No. But Panarin was a toy – he’s the kind of player that is a scoring luxury for a good team. He would probably be a detriment to this current edition of the Blackhawks. And Brandon Saad fucks. Thanks.

– Jokiharju is pretty much the real deal. For him to be doing what he is doing at the NHL level right now, at 19 years old, is almost unheard of from defensemen that aren’t heralded as generational talents prior to being drafted. Now, that doesn’t mean Joker is a generational talent, because he isn’t. But being strong on both ends of the ice, closing gaps and sealing opponents off from the puck, and being able to make plays with the puck on his stick like he can, all at 19 years old against grown ass men who are stronger and more experienced than you are all things that bode well for his NHL present and future. He might end up proving to be better than we all expected.

– I am admittedly not the best at noticing player trends thoughout a game if they’re subtle, so maybe I am wrong here, but I thought Erik Gustafsson had a pretty good game tonight. He definitely made a hell of play on the GWG, with a great shot fake that left John Gibson’s jockstrop in the crease before he fed Kane for an easy one-timer. He didn’t have a particularly outstanding game, but he was solid and didn’t do anything that was overtly bad. That probably counts as good for him.

– Thank God for Corey Crawford, and his brain that is (hopefully) not a blended mess, after all. He is still the same old top-five NHL goalie he was before he got hurt last year. That is good and I am happy.

– It’s just not the same to watch a Ducks game and not see the mutated pile of infant diapers that is Corey Perry on the ice. However, I enjoyed it greatly. May it continue forever.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – October 23rd

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1200 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Predators – 7pm

It’s always stupid to label anything a playoff preview in October, but these two teams would be awfully disappointed if it didn’t turn out that way. These are two of the three/four teams that matter in the West (depending on your view of Vegas), and this will be their first chance to size each other up. The Sharks don’t have the record that the Preds do, but they’ve been murdering pretty much everyone across from them but just haven’t gotten the luck. Martin Jones’s .907 SV% to start the season sure hasn’t helped, as well as seeing some goalies channel Merlin against them. The Preds have had no such problems, and thanks to Pekka Rinne’s injury, Juuse Saros is getting the net. Which is probably how it should have been anyway. He’s carrying consecutive shutouts into this one. This is truly the aristocracy.

Second Screen Viewing

Flames vs. Canadiens – 6:30

I’m fairly sure both of these teams blow. I’m fairly sure both are run by morons. But they’ve gotten off to decent enough starts to delude their drunken fanbases that they might not be either. Watch them throw their own feces at each other.

Other Games

Panthers vs. Rangers – 6pm

Coyotes vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Bruins vs. Senators – 6:30

Kings vs. Stars – 7:30

Penguins vs. Oilers – 8pm

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks Preview: We Know Your Pain

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1914 0

vs.

RECORDS: Ducks 5-3-1 Hawks 4-2-2

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN

MICKEY PASSED OUT ON THEIR LAWN: Anaheim Calling

If you just spent the weekend getting completely pummeled by good teams, and the Hawks pretty much did, then there’s no better cure than getting to face a team that everyone has been feeding their own scrotum to, which is exactly what the Anaheim Ducks have been.

Don’t let that record fool you. That’s completely a result of both Anaheim goalies, John Gibson and Ryan “I Destroy Angels” Miller each having a SV% over .938. The Ducks are averaging, just averaging mind you, getting outshot each game by 13. They have the worst team-Corsi and team-xGF% by a good distance. They have been getting killed every night, and only the men in the masks performing six separate miracles has gotten them the 11 points they have. They’re going to sink in the Pacific quicker than a drunk yuppie into the Chicago River on St. Patty’s day. At least they will if this keeps up.

The one card the Ducks might pull to try and explain this away is they’re missing like half their forward-lineup. Jakob Silfverberg will miss out tonight with a hand (resist the urge to clap). Corey Perry, or really the wreckage that once was this world-class ass-boil, is out for five months and his career is pretty much over. Nick Ritchie only just signed a new contract and should be back any game but not tonight. Ondrej Kase has the brown brain. Patrick Eaves has his normal catastrophic injury that somehow keeps inflating his reputation.

All of this has forced the Ducks to turn to a bunch of kids and freight-train residents to fill out the lineup, and it’s not like Randy Carlyle has ever been a master of maximizing what he has. A couple of these kids do have promise, like Sam Steel, Maxime Cotois, and Kiefer Sherwood (which simply can’t be his real name). But the rest of this is filled out with dreck, and that goes with the fuck that Ryan Getzlaf hasn’t been able find to give for three seasons, and Ryan Kesler‘s hips audibly turning into paste. Needless to say, there are problems up front.

That still shouldn’t completely excuse the woeful performances, because this defense should be good. HAMPUS! HAMPUS!, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour is a really good top four. Or it should be. Under Take A Long Look At Randy, they’ve been an utter mess. Carlyle can’t decide if he wants to stick with his good, hard, Canadian, dilapidated, grindy system or move to an up-tempo one that would better fit this blue line and the younger forwards. Instead you get this curdled goo in the middle because Getzlaf and Kesler can’t do anything. They should get up and go with what they have. Instead they lurch and shit.

As for the Hawks, you guessed it fucko, another line reshuffle. Brandon Saad‘s dominant Sunday sees him back with Kane, waiting patiently for Artem Anisimov to catch up. Nick Schmaltz slots down, still on the wing, with David Kampf and Alex Fortin. At least that line will be fast? Maybe? Whatever.

One of Arby’s will pair with Jan Rutta. No one here cares anymore which is which. Corey Crawford will get the start, and he must really be jonesin’ to get back in behind this defense that is still picking grass stems out of their teeth from Sunday.

But that’s ok, the Ducks are worse! Like, way worse! The Hawks just need to play as they did earlier in the season, and they should overwhelm an Anaheim team that hasn’t been able to find the gear shift all season. While the Ducks might have some speed thanks to having to play so many kids, it’s not usually in a useful direction. And Getzlaf has always been regurgitated by Jonathan Toews, and Kesler is like an old dog barking at passing cars while he waddles somewhat in their direction. The Hawks should be able to get up and down on this outfit.

That doesn’t mean they won’t get goalie’d by Gibson, who has been doing it all season. But that happens sometimes. Put him under severe pressure, and the Ducks can’t generate much on Crawford, and he should be able to match whatever Gibson is going to have to jump through several flaming hoops to produce.

This is a good week to get healthy. All of the Ducks, Rangers, Blues, and Oilers suck deep pond scum. Rack up all the points you can before the schedule turns up.

All right, let’s sit back and wait for Eddie O to go on another analytics rant.

Game #9 Preview Suite