Baseball

Why Is Hole Camels Getting His Whole Ass Kicked?

By Sam Fels 1861 0

When the PECOTA projections and others came out before the season and sent greater Cubdom into a Burning Man-like fit, a lot of what those systems saw was questions about the Cubs’ rotation. Well, not questions exactly, because computers don’t have questions they generate answers and this could turn into a philosophical debate that goes on forever about man and machine and that’s not really what we do here. ANYWHO, the Cubs starting rotation is definitely on the old side, definitely contains pitchers (other than Hendricks) who have had dips the past two years and who had peripherals that were a touch worrying.

These questions were basically not considered the first six weeks of the season, or the six weeks after the first one, where the Cubs rotation was probably the best in baseball and took the Cubs from 2-7 to multiple games up in the division. But now the Cubs have had a rough two weeks or so, a .500 road trip and a sub-.500 homestand before losing yesterday to the Astros (which tends to happen). There’s been an iffy couple trips through the rotation, which starts setting off alarm bells and if it doesn’t stop pretty soon will have bonfires and effigies and weird clothing in a desert somewhere (I’ve never been to Burning Man and don’t intend to, so I’m just going to have this very limited and comedic view of it).

Perhaps the most worrying part of the starting staff’s struggles of late is Cole Hamels. His past three starts have basically seen his nuts get kicked up into his throat. He’s only managed 13 innings, and in them he’s given up eight extra-base hits, 11 earned runs, nine walks against just 11 strikeouts, and 23 hits overall. That’s a 2.46 WHIP and a 7.61 ERA. So yeah, that’s not good. On the plus side, he remains extremely handsome.

So what’s been the issue? Clearly the control is something to be looked at, as Hamels had only walked 17 hitters in the previous 49 innings this season But we can go a little deeper.

On the plus side, Hamels hasn’t lost any velocity. His fastball has actually been at a higher MPH the past three starts than it was before, up over a 92.5 MPH average where it has been 91.2 in the three starts before. Hamels hasn’t seen any change in movement either, as no pitch has lost its drop or horizontal movement. His curve flattened out a little in his start against the Nats, but that was a one-off and has been where it has been all of the season for the most part.

There hasn’t been much of a change in usage, either. His last good start, against Milwaukee, he threw his fastball basically 70% of the time, but that was also an outlier and he’s been where he’s been all season, throwing it about just half the time.

But it’s the fastball/sinker where this issues seem to be. Or could be, if three starts are enough to go on. Check out his release point on his the fastball/sinker (which are basically the same thing for Hamels) over the course for the season:

Something of a dip, and his curve has seen the same though it was back to normal in Houston yesterday, it just didn’t get him saved from getting shelled.

Where does that result? Well, accuracy. Here’s where Hamels’s fastball was in his first eight starts of the season:

Pretty much in the strikezone, and when missing it was outside which is away from power for most righties. Basically zoning in on the outside corner, and when he did come inside it was low. Now the last three starts:

Whoops. All over the place, inside more than he’s been, not in the zone, and not surprisingly it’s inside and high in the zone where he’s getting mushed but good lately. It would seem the lower arm angle has cost him control and has led to pitches carrying inside and high to righties more often.

Once Hamels gets back to zeroing in on the outside corner again, or his arm-side corner, things should be fine. Let’s just hope he gets back there sooner than later.

 

Everything Else

From This Seat, It’s The Bruins You Should Look To

By Sam Fels 1744 0

Let’s make it clear up front: There’s nothing you should look to St. Louis for other than to make sure it’s in your rearview mirror. You can’t learn anything from sludge and drool, obviously. While I was one of many wishing the Hawks had shown the Blues’ urgency last summer, that doesn’t mean what the Blues are doing is necessarily a stable model. A hot four months with a goalie from nowhere doesn’t exactly project to sustained success and contending for baubles in the years to come. Especially with a blue line that’s getting older and couldn’t move in the first place. So it’s pieces like this from friend of the program Scott Powers that make be urpy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t things in there that are true, but the Hawks could learn a lot more from the Bruins, and that’s because they come from a much similar place. In fact, they almost come from the same one.

Cast your mind back to 2013, though it seems a lifetime ago now. It’s easy to forget just how much those two teams were alike and how much they shared the same platform. At that point, the Bruins were in their second Final in three years, the Hawks their second in four. Both had one championship. And considering how close that series was (it was inches away from a Game 7, it was inches away from a Bruins sweep, it was inches away from the Hawks winning in five, it basically could not have been any closer), they both came out of it a few sheets of paper’s distance away from each other.

And looking back and now, you could argue the same amount and quality of personnel threads each team from that time to today. Bergeron, Marchand, Chara, Rask don’t really look all  that different than Toews, Kane, Keith, and Crawford. There are margins, but the total wouldn’t be too much different. Add in Pastrnak for Boston, but we could add in DeBrincat for the Hawks and we’re still kind of the same.

So how did each get here exactly?

You know the Hawks went onto another conference Final and a Cup after that (agonizingly close to two Cups), but what you might have forgotten is that the Bruins were the Presidents’ Trophy winners in ’13-’14 and there were a good portion of people who thought we were headed for a Final rematch. The Bruins ran into Carey Price in Round 2, and also lost their minds, but that doesn’t detract from the fact they were one of, if not the, best team in the league that year. Between the two seasons the Bruins moved along Tyler Seguin, but for one season at least they had Jarome Iginla scoring 30 goals and Reilly Smith chipping in 20 to shield the idiocy of that trade. Torey Krug joined the blue line, and basically it was the ’13 team after that.

The Bs “collapse,” as it were, started the next season, while the Hawks were adding #3. And it was maybe for reasons you might recognize. Quite simply, Bergeron and Marchand didn’t score, combining for 97 points (a total Marchand passed himself this year and nearly did the previous two seasons). Trades the Bs had made started to not work out in delay, as Loui Eriksson was finished, the goals dried up for Smith. The defensive depth started to erode, as Boychuk was moved along for cap reasons and Seidenberg got old in a hurry. Some kids like Spooner and Pastrnak, in his rookie year, were not up to making up the difference yet. They would miss the playoffs.

And they would do so again the next season. Bergeron and Marchand were better, but not good enough. Dougie Hamilton was traded for literally nothing. Chara began to show his age, and the defensive depth behind him and Krug was simply nothing. There were no forwards beyond the top line. Rask was only ok.

The seeds were planted for what the Bruins are now the next year, when they racked up 95 points and returned to the playoffs, though they lost to that woeful Senators team being dragged by the dick by Erik Karlsson. But Pastrnak exploded onto the scene in his third year. Brandon Carlo made his debut. Charlie McAvoy debuted in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean there weren’t missteps in free agency or offseason, as I point to Backes, Beleskey, and Jimmy Hayes. But the roots were growing.

Over the past two seasons, the Bruins have brought in DeBrusk, Grzelcyk, and others that they turned into Coyle or Johansson or whoever else.

Now which looks more similar to the Hawks? The Bruins or Blues? Pretty obvious, no? The Bruins had an entrenched core that underperformed in some years (and if you don’t think Bergeron heard some of the same things that Toews did during his down years here then you’ve clearly never been to or read anything written out of Boston), but they held onto and filled in behind. They had a Hall of Fame d-man who could no longer dominate games, but the difference is that he eventually accepted his limited skills and role and let others take the bigger responsibilities. The Hawks haven’t gotten there yet.

And in essence, the Hawks are already in this process, it’s just that they started later than the Bruins did (as they should have) and their stars are going to be older when it’s all done. But the Hawks are loading up on mobile, skilled d-men with the hopes of relieving Keith of his duties in the next two years. All of whom are mobile and able to play with the puck, just as McAvoy, Krug, Carlo, and Grzelcyk can. There is already hope that they have some forwards to take secondary roles behind the main trio, if that trio can hold on for a few more years (also, Toews, Kane, and Top Cat are exactly the same age as Pastrnak, Marchand, and Bergeron combined).

The Bruins were in the wilderness for two to three years, depending on how you categorize that first-round exit. The Hawks definitely have been for two, and possibly three depending on how fluky you think that division winning team that got flattened in the first round was. While they thrashed about in some areas and definitely made their mistakes, eventually the Bruins waited around long enough to fill in behind their legends through their own system. The Hawks are now farther behind than the Bruins were, because they have pretty much nothing on defense at the top level. But they’re also on the same path.

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 1 Recap: Well That’s Reassuring

By Sam Fels 1537 0

As it’s the Final, we’ll give you actual recaps instead of the smartass quips we’ve specialized in the past couple months. They’ll just take a while because we have to stop throwing up first. 

If you’re watching this series while holding your nose and just hoping that it will end quickly, then last night is what you wanted. Yes, the Bruins were a bit rusty…for about 10 minutes. After that, everything we’ve thought about the Blues-their defense isn’t that good, Binnington has been fine but hardly spectacular, and the Bruins depth and star power is better–came to fruition. One game doesn’t a narrative make, but there is a lot more the Blues have to solve while the Bruins have just been doing what they have been and will only need to continue to do so. This was a complete ass-kicking for at least two-thirds of the game.

Let’s do some bullets.

The Two Obs

-You should never take anything Barry Melrose says seriously, and the biggest clue that ESPN doesn’t care about hockey is that he remains in their employ even though I don’t think he’s watched a game since 2001 (including his coaching stint), but he wasn’t the only one who was championing this series as something of a “return.” That’s only based on what the Blues only kind of are and the reputation the Bruins have even though they haven’t been that for years. But there was this idea both teams are big and bad and the idea of a lot of fast and nippy wingers with skill aren’t the way forward and that this was TRUE HOCKEY. Horseshit.

The Blues simply couldn’t handle the Bruins forecheck, because their defense is so goddamn slow. Their only d-man who can move is Vinnie Bag Of Donuts Dunn, and he’s hurt. There were turnovers galore early, which then had the Blues defense backing up at their line when the Bruins were carrying in trying to cheat to win the races down low later. Which only gave the speed the Bruins have at forward more space to the outside to carry the puck in and create, which led to the Blues never having the puck and having tire treads to remove from their chests this morning.

But the real differences in these teams, and one we’ll get to later today that the Hawks should be paying particular attention to, is the mobility of the Bruins defense. Chara was awful, the rest were very much not. McAvoy, Krug, Grzelcyk (especially), and Clifton are all at least mobile enough to open up a passing lane for themselves to evade the Blues forecheck, which has been pretty furious at times this spring. Or they just outright get away from them, and even when the Bruins are attacking the St. Lous line three-on-three or four-on-three, the Blues defense is backing up. You want to know why the Bruins dominate possession all season even beyond the Bergeron line? There you go.

-I saw a good portion of Blues Twitter saying, “We’ll be all right when we stop taking penalties.’ Because that’s a thing that’s happened the past 30 years.

–Jordan Binnington made over 30 saves, only the third time he’s had to do so this playoff run. But if the Bruins are going to toss 35 shots at him a night, this is what the Blues are going to get. 34 out of 37 saves is good. It’s not great, and that’s mostly what Binnington has done. It’ll have to be better than what the Bruins will get on the other side.

-The only unit for the Blues that wasn’t covered in their own piss by the end of the night was their top line of Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko, which got their two goals as well. The adjustment I would expect the Bruins to make is to get Chara out of that matchup, though it’s a risk to try it with Brandon Carlo and Torey Krug, given the latter’s defensive balloon-handedness. But Chara simply isn’t up to it and that much was clear, and you don’t want to be jumbling your pairs at this point.

For the Blues, playing this way of trying to trade forechecks is going to get them this. Their defense will get snowed in, the Bruins will get away from theirs, and they’ll spend the night chasing. It would seem their only option for Game 2 is to go Trotz and trap this up and make McAvoy and Krug weave through it. That would allow their slow d-men to back up at their line while still being protected and not leaving acres to the outside. Then they might have a chance of retrieving pucks and moving it along without getting clobbered. The more the Blues try to speed this up the more they’re going to get exposed.

Let’s hope for that, so we don’t have to be here long.

Everything Else

F*ck It Dude, Let’s Get P.K. Subban

By John Pullega 3511 0

Last week, The Maven brought up the idea of trading Brandon Saad. You should read the whole thing, but the SparkNotes version is that the Hawks might have as many as three forwards who can maybe do what Saad does for less money. This money will be important for re-signing Alex DeBrincat after next year.

While we’ve been hemming and hawing over how the Hawks need to make a legitimate run at Erik “My Crotch Is Itchy” Karlsson, it’s hard to picture the organization having the stomach to pay him the $12 million per over eight years he’ll probably ask for (and deserve). EK65 will always be the dream(boat), but you can see the Hawks balking, with DeBrincat and possibly Strome asking for the money the Hawks owe them in arrears for setting the world on fire.

With all that in mind, there are three things the Hawks should be looking to do this offseason:

1. Shore up the defense

2. Improve the penalty kill

3. Add a top-six forward

Shoring up the defense and improving the penalty kill are so far ahead of adding a top-six forward in my view that if the Hawks decided to trade Brandon Saad—who himself is a top-six winger, even if Beto O’Colliton thinks he was born for this third-line horseshit—to solve the first two problems, I wouldn’t even be mad.

I’ll stop edging you here.

Let’s offer Brandon Saad, Erik Gustafsson, and a pick/prospect for P.K. Subban.

How the FUCK Did You Come Up With That?

After the Preds were hilariously bounced from the playoffs much earlier than anticipated, the trade rumors around Pernell-Karl began circulating immediately. (Whether they’re true or not doesn’t matter right now. We’re bored and don’t really want to think about the Cup, so this is what we’re doing.) If there’s even a small consideration that David Poile would trade someone as dynamic, fashionable, and wonderful as P.K. Subban, you absolutely must make a phone call, division rivalry be damned. (As much as I’d like to use the Hartman–Ejdsell trade as proof that in-division trades can happen, what I’m proposing is a much more unwieldy beast than that.)

P.K. Subban on the Hawks definitely shores up the defense. He most likely improves the penalty kill as well.

OK, Dumbass, Why Would Nashville Ever Do That?

Let’s say you get Poile on the phone and offer Saad, Gus, and a pick/prospect. Let’s say the pick/prospect is either Boqvist or this year’s second round pick (#43 overall). Is this comparable? Let’s start with the stats.

2018–19 GP G A P CF% xGF%
P.K. Subban 63 9 22 31 53.61 50.54
B. Saad 80 23 24 47 52.69 47.27
E. Gustafsson 79 17 43 60 50.24 45.50

Last year was Subban’s worst year as a professional hockey player. He posted his lowest games-played total (not counting the season-in-a-can in 2013), his lowest assists total, his lowest points total, and third-lowest goals total. He was out for six weeks nursing an upper body injury, which no doubt contributed to his off year.

Compare that to the two players the Hawks would give up. Erik Gustafsson not only had the best year of his career by far but also was one of the best offensive D-men statistically in the NHL last year. He and P.K. Subban have exactly the same number of 60-point seasons under their belts. He’s also younger (27 vs. 30) and on a much friendlier albeit soon-to-be-ending contract ($1.2 million vs. $9 million). Something tells me you can use these points to convince Poile it’s not a bad idea.

Likewise, Brandon Saad’s 47 points would have made him a top-five scorer for the Preds last year. His 23 goals would be third behind Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg. His 24 assists would also be top five on the Preds.

Based solely on last year’s numbers, this trade is a huge win for the Preds, statistically.

But of course, we can’t neglect history. P.K. Subban is without a doubt one of the top D-men of his generation. He’s been a consistent force on both sides of the puck and on both sides of the special-teams ledger. His presence on the PP is devastating, and in the four years prior to last year (2014–2018), Subban played a top role on both the Canadiens’s and Preds’s PK units: Each team’s PK finished 7th, 12th, 15th, and 6th, respectively, and in the two years a Subban team finished outside the top 10, Subban had missed at least 14 games. Neither Saad nor Gus have anything close to his pedigree.

At this point, it’s probably not a bad idea to talk about cap implications, because that could matter.

With this trade offer, the Preds would free up $1.8 million in cap space, giving them just about $9 million to play with (according to CapFriendly). Maybe they use that money to add another scoring threat in, like, Jeff Skinner, I don’t know. Fuck Nashville, I’m not doing this for them.

The point is: If Nashville truly believes it’s Subban’s fault they got knocked out so early and would consider trading him for it, Gus and Saad both provide as much or more offense than they currently have for less money. Nashville can then use that additional money to re-sign Josi or sign Duchene or Ferland or whichever other good ol’ boy they think is the missing piece but obviously isn’t. Plus, Poile might be getting itchy feet, as his team hasn’t yet won the Cup all of its entitled, illiterate, hillbilly, raising-banners-for-nothing-that-matters fans have been stealing college chants about, such is the depth of that pool of cleverness. He can MAKE A MOVE and trade his misidentified scapegoat in one fell swoop.

While Saad and Gus would be good adds for Nashville in the contexts of last year; Nashville’s need for more scoring from their forwards; and their need to replace the defensive offense Subban provides; P.K. Subban is a legitimate star who can pull the receipts out of any one of his agonizingly fashionable outfits as proof. That’s where you’d hope the #43 pick pushes this offer over the top.

I had wanted to use the #3 overall pick in this peyote-driven fantasy. As much as I love Subban (fuck, I’m offering SAAD for Christ’s sake), giving up 100-plus points AND a decent lottery ticket is probably feeling my oats a tad too much. Maybe you talk #3 if it’s an either/or with Saad and Gus, but that’s gonna complicate things more than I’m willing to get into. So you offer the #43. If they say no to that, or if they said, “No, we’d rather have Boqvist,” fine, I don’t fucking care, you can have him.

Because remember, you’re getting P.K. Subban, a proven two-way D-man who can play well on special teams. Boqvist doesn’t project to do that, and even if he ever became that, the Core will be long dead by then (or retired or whatever it is hockey players do when they’re done playing). And by all indications, the goal is to make one last run at it with this Core, specifically, Kane and Toews.

So again, the point of this trade is to shore up the defense and improve the PK, with the overarching goal of making one more run at a Cup with the Core. If the price is right, Subban might be the missing piece.

I’ve Made It This Far. What’s It Look Like?

What do the Hawks look like if something like this goes through? Let’s start by using the current roster after the trade.

DeBrincat–Strome–Kane

Kabulik–Toews–Kahun

Perlini–Kampf–Sikura

Caggiula–Anisimov–Wedin

Hayden

Murphy–Subban

Keith–Jokiharju

Boqvist/Beaudin–Koekkoek/Seabrook (Kill me)

Crow

Delia

That top four on the backend starts looking a lot better. Subban also gets Seabrook off the PK, which is an absolute must after last year’s trainwreck. You can mix and match Murphy and Harju, Subban and Keith. Having Subban back there solves a lot of defensive and PK problems. Subban also knows how to move the puck, which the Hawks have missed as Keith has aged.

This line up as you see it makes a few assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Hawks re-sign the entire third line at $1 million per: Each of Perlini, Kampf, and Sikura is an RFA this year. This is purely a guess at what they’ll get. I’m also guessing that Kabulik brings a $2 million cap hit, because I don’t know what his contract actually looks like.

With these assumptions, the Hawks still have $11–12 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly. That’s probably not enough to both sign a top-six forward this year AND re-sign DeBrincat/Strome next year, unless you find someone willing to take Anisimov’s contract. This also asks a lot of Dominik Kabulik, but slotting him with someone he knows (Kahun) and someone he can probably trust (Toews) is about as soft a landing as you can get. It ALSO doesn’t consider what the Hawks will do about Crawford, who is a UFA after next year.

P.K. Subban would solve a ton of problems the Hawks have. He’d give them the second-best shot (after Karlsson) of shoring up the Hawks’s woeful blue line (and he might be a safer bet than Karlsson anyway). He’d keep this Core’s window open just a little bit longer.

If the Hawks could get him for Saad, Gus, and the #43 or a prospect like Boqvist, I’m pulling the trigger on that every day. For P.K. Subban, the whole package is more than worth it.

If the goal is to make one more run at a Cup with the Core, Subban can help. We’d just need Dave Poile—the winningest GM in NHL history, except in the one game that matters—to prove what a huge fucking genius he is one more time.

Stats from hockey-reference.com and NaturalStatTrick. Cap shit from CapFriendly’s Armchair GM tool.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Astros: Timing Is Everything

By Sam Fels 1162 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 30-21   Astros 35-19

GAMETIMES: 1:10 Monday, 7:10 Tuesday and Wednesday

TV: WGN Monday, ABC Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday

HOT DOG DANCE: The Crawfish Boxes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Cole Hamels vs. Gerrit Cole

Jon Lester vs. Corbin Martin

Kyle Hendricks vs. Wade Miley

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Javier Baez – DH

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Willson Contreras – C

Jim Adduci – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Addison Russell – SS

David Bote – 3B

PROBABLE ASTROS LINEUP

Josh Reddick – DH

Alex Bregman – SS

Michael Brantley – LF

Yuli Gurriel – 3B

Robinson Chirinos – C

Jack Mayfield – 2B

Tyler White – 1B

Derek Fisher – RF

Jake Marisnick – CF

 

Yep, that’s Jim Adduci, called up today, batting fifth for the Cubs as they take on baseball’s best team. Jason Heyward is feeling his hip, Javy Baez is feeling his heel and is restricted to DH duty, and Kris Bryant is having a hard time feeling anything after running into Heyward yesterday. So yeah, it’s something of a skeleton staff. There’s only so much you can take as a team, no matter your depth. One wonders if Bryant or Heyward were going to be out longer if Happ wouldn’t have been the call, but here we are.

Lucky for the Cubs, they’ve caught the Astros at a sensitive point, or maybe have. George Springer is definitely out, and Jose Altuve might only return for the last game or two of the series. Collin McHugh is also down for the count.

Of course, there’s more than enough here to paddle the Cubs around, especially this bewildered sloth of a bullpen. Correa, Bregman, Brantley, Marisnick, Reddick, and Chirinos are all having well-above average years, and Bregman and Correa are at MVP-levels. Or they would be if Springer wasn’t dusting them when he’s healthy. So aren’t you excited to watch Cishek or Ryan or Maples or Edwards try and get big outs against these guys this series? Get the book on your head.

The Cubs will duck Verlander, but Cole is probably more torturous. The Cubs couldn’t do all that much with Wade Miley last year and that’s before he got the Astros pixie dust on him. Martin is one of their premier prospects, but he’s had control issues so far.

And with that depleted lineup the Cubs have, should they find themselves trailing late they’ll have to make it work against a legion of assholes breathing fire. Ryan Pressley gave up his first earned run in a year on Friday. Roberto Osuna, sadly not bathing in lava, has been a lights-out closer. Will Harris has an ERA barely over 1.00. Hector Rondon isn’t striking out nearly as many hitters as he did when he was a Cub, but he’s getting a multitude of grounders and has been very good as well. There’s no chink in the armor here.

Some would want to paint this as a possible World Series preview. We can only hope the Cubs look representative. It will be fascinating to see Kyle Hendricks try and negotiate what may be the best lineup he’s ever seen. There’s another Cole Derby today, with Hamels and Gerrit. For the Cubs to get by a team like this they need great starts. This is the hardest team to get great starts against. Let’s have some fun?

Baseball

Astros Spotlight: Gerrit Cole Doesn’t Need To Be Fancy

By Sam Fels 1148 0

You would think a lot of Pirates would benefit from escaping Pittsburgh. It’s only worked out so-so for Andrew McCutchen, the offensive centerpiece for those playoff Pirate teams. Gerrit Cole, on the other hand, has found salvation in Houston after being punted from The Confluence.

Upon arriving in Houston, Cole saw his strikeout jump up a third, to the point that he’s now striking out over 13 hitters per nine innings, after gather 12 per nine last year, or over a third the past two years. That leads the league both years and combined. Basically, nothing happens when Cole is on the mound, except the occasional home run when he finds someone’s bat. That’s been the only bugaboo this year so far.

So how was Cole able to boost his strikeouts so fantastically in Houston after flashing this stuff in Pittsburgh? Cole was the one pitcher who chafed under the Pirates cutter-heavy, and shift-heavy ways. He was pushed to give up grounders that their infield could gobble up instead of just sending hitters back to the dugout having never made contact in the first place. It wasn’t that Cole wasn’t effective in black and yellow, as his ERA was below 4.00 every year except his last.

Well, the Astros saw his 95-MPH fastball and figured he should just throw that as often as possible. They also got him to ditch his sinker/two-seamer, and haven’t worried about what ground balls he is or isn’t getting. Cole upped his fastball usage 10 percent as an Astro, and has completely cut his use of the sinker to nothing. He’s also bumped up his use of a curve and slider, which are just the same side of the coin depending on velocity, and dumped the change-up he was trying in 2017 that led to nowhere.

As you get with the Astros, there are always whispers about how exactly they improve the spin-rate of their pitchers. Cole has added a mile or two an hour to his fastball in Houston, and his curve has added three inches of drop each of the past two years. Which makes it quite the weapon, and also something you wouldn’t have seen coming. But with that smoke and then a curve that drops off the table, you can see why hitters are just waving at anything he’s serving up there.

All of it must have Cole looking at the upcoming winter and getting awfully big eyes, because it’ll be his first dip into free agency. Or he would have been if the free agent market hadn’t completely disappeared thanks to not collusion for sure. Still, top end starters have been able to get theirs. If Patrick Corbin was able to get six years at $140M, then Cole must be thinking about a $30M per year deal somewhere. deGrom just signed for a little south of that, that’s where teammate Verlander is, same for Scherzer, and those are the names Cole’s numbers have him hanging around with.

The Astros have some of the same concerns as the Cubs, locking in the players they’ve produced to make this unholy monster of a team. Jose Altuve’s salary jumps $20M next year. Bregman’s $13M. George Springer enters arbitration. So does Carlos Correa. Houston had $121M committed to next year before those two get what they have coming to them. They might have enough room for $27-30M for Cole, but it’ll be a squeeze.

Until then, they’ll just take the avalanche of strikeouts.

Baseball

Series Preview – Royals vs. White Sox: Back Down To The Floor

By Sam Fels 1098 0

vs.

RECORDS: Royals 18-34   Whites Sox 23-29

GAMETIMES: Monday 1:10, Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and Tuesday, WGN Wednesday

ARGUING ABOUT BBQ: Royals Review

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Homer Bailey vs. Ivan Nova

Brad Keller vs. Lucas Giolito

TBD vs. Reynaldo Lopez

PROBABLE ROYALS LINEUP

Nicky Lopez – 2B

Whit Merrifield – RF

Adalberto Mondesi – SS

Alex Gordon – LF

Hunter Dozier – 3B

Jorge Soler – DH

Ryan O’Hearn – 1B

Martin Maldonado – C

Billy Hamilton – CF

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonson – DH

James McCann – C

Charlie Tilson – RF

Jose Rondon – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – CF

 

After spending the week on the road playing the cream of the crop the AL has to offer, and having the Twins get in up to the elbow, the Sox return home to go to the other side of the spectrum with a three-gamer against the Kansas City Royals, who have as many losses as the Marlins. And when you have anything that’s the same number as the Marlins, that’s a place you don’t want to be. But hey, they’re not the Orioles.

How did the Royals get here? Well, it’s not an offense as bas as you’d think one for a wooden spooner would be. They rank 9th or 10th in most offensive categories as a team, and through Dozier, Gordon, Soler, Merrifield, and Mondesi they can put up some runs on the odd night here and there. Hamilton and Maldonado are automatic outs though, when any of the Sox pitchers need a break. Soler and Mondesi are strikeout-prone, but the other three in the five mentioned are very patient and can make for a headache.

Scouring further down, the Royals rotation has actually bee slightly better than the Sox’s, in terms of ERA and FIP. Their problem is they walk more hitters than anyone other than the Rangers. The only bright spot has been Danny Duffy, whom the Sox will miss this go-around. Homer Bailey can’t get it over the plate and when he does it’s had a nasty habit of getting sent to far away places. Keller has had even bigger walk-problems, so if the Sox can be patient there’s gold in them thar hills.

Late in games, you’d want to avoid the triumvirate of Jason Diekman, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Barlow, who have very high K numbers and have generally been a pain in the ass. Everyone else has been gasoline, and with the Royals have a shrug emoji listed for Wednesday, the Sox might get to that gasoline.

For the Sox, Moncada slots up to the leadoff spot and Eloy to the 2nd spot, where you’d hope he’ll make his home for the next decade. Garcia and Anderson are nursing minor knocks but could show up at some point in the series, though not this afternoon. Either way for the Sox, it’ll be something of a relief to just no have to deal with a hell’s gauntlet of a lineup anymore.

 

Baseball

Royals Spotlight: Alex Gordon Is Undead

By Sam Fels 1330 0

Alex Gordon was dead.

That was clear. After the 2015 Royals World Series win, Gordon must’ve figured there wasn’t anything left to do, because he fell off a cliff, crashed into jagged rocks, and watched his limbs split off. Some of this was due to injury, as Gordon’s body began betraying him in that ’15 season. He only played 104 games that year, which turned him into a 2-WAR player when he had been consistently a four or five. It also affected his superb defense.

But after that? Hooo boy. The past three seasons the best average Gordon had was .245. His highest OBP was .324. His highest wOBA was .305. He didn’t have a 2-WAR season, managing 1.7 last year, and that was the highest.

Gordon was never a great power hitter, only cracking 20 homers twice in his career and never slugging higher than .455. But he used to be a doubles-machine, including putting up 51 one season. The past three seasons his totals for two-baggers was 16, 20, 24. So what happened?

It seemed like Gordon got to that magical point a lot of players do these days at age 32, when dealing with the hyped up velocity of the modern game became too much. Gordon saw a huge spike in his whiff-percentage on off-speed and breaking pitches, which kind of clues you into that he was starting to cheat a bit on fastballs. When you’re spinning like a top on curveballs, you know this could be the problem. And Gordon was doing less and less with fastballs too, which doesn’t leave you a lot of places to go.

So what’s turned around this year? Well, Gordon is dealing with the fastball again, hitting .295 against them so far after not being above .240 the past three seasons. Gordon also isn’t getting bamboozled by changes and curves, hitting .389 and .333 against them, respectively. The past three seasons those numbers were…well, unsightly.

Is there a change in approach? There seems to be only a tweak or two. Gordon is swinging at less pitches out of the zone, but he’s making contact on significantly more pitches out of the zone. High and a way seems to be the order of the day:

One wonders if Gordon’s resurgence might bring his time in Kansas City to an end. Gordon is 35, and clearly won’t be around the next time the Royals mean anything to anyone. He has a mutual option next year for $23M, but must a $4M buyout. Any contender needing another bat would probably think that’s not much of an investment. Of course, Gordon can only play left, though an AL team could slot him at DH too.

Of course, you’re also talking about one of the most popular Royals ever, someone whose name will live forever there thanks to those ’14 and ’15 teams (could you have scored in the 9th in Game 7, though?). You don’t just flog those unless you have to, especially as Gordon probably doesn’t fetch that much at 35 with still limited power. These are the decisions that rebuilding teams have to make. At least Gordon isn’t dead like he used to be.

Baseball

Weekend Series Wraps: Sox Swept By Twins, Cubs Drop Two Of Three To Reds – Get To The Meats

By Sam Fels 1338 0

You’ll have to excuse me today. It’s a holiday weekend and I’m a little under the weather, which is like the worst combination ever, so I’m just going to combine these into one so we can all go about using our bonus weekend night however we see fit. I hope there’s grilled meats and cold beer in your future. I’m gonna try the old booze and allergy med combination and see if I can’t find Lucy in the sky.

Game 1 Box Score: Twins 11, White Sox 4

Game 2 Box Score: Twins 8, White Sox 1

Game 3 Box Score: Twins 7, White Sox 0

-This is probably not how you’d design this era of Sox-Twins matchups to start, now that one has proven to be ready for primetime and the other trying to get there. 26-5 combined suggests the Sox road might be a little longer to traverse than you thought. The Twins were so ruthless this weekend, as any mistake any pitcher made in black was punished by a baseball traveling at high speeds and distances. Six homers over three games is a pretty conservative pace for them on the road, but with the weather in Minneapolis finally cooperating, they might start lining up the two.

-I can see where Max Kepler is going to be villain #1 for Sox fans pretty soon. He just looks the part, and is effective enough to take the mantle. That lithe, smarmy carriage. Besides, only assholes are named Max

-Reynaldo Lopez wasn’t that wild, but he was wild in the strike zone, which usually ends with you giving up three homers and eight runs against a team that is a fireworks factory in itself. Lopez got scared off his slider, which means it was only fastball-change, and as the change wasn’t all that effective, it’s gasoline time.

-Yonder Alonso had three hits. So y’know, that’s something.

-Willians Astudillo is as much fun as I hoped.

-Covey wasn’t even bad today. There was some BABIP Kung Fu Treachery, but is only real mistake was a change that decided to go rogue, and then it went far thanks to Eddie Rosario. The Twins just aren’t missing right now.

-It’s a little scary that Welington Castillo was allowed to stay in to take another foul tip off the dome, when he looked a little shaky after the first one. Let’s say all of baseball has a long way to go when it comes to this sort of thing.

-After another day of watching Manny Banuelos, it’s probably worth pointing out that Dylan Cease gave up one over six in his last outing with 7 Ks but four walks. It’s the latter that’s probably keeping him in Carolina.

Game 1 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 8, Reds 6

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 10, Cubs 2

-We said this Reds team was miles better than its record was saying it was, and they seem intent on proving that to the Cubs alone. Votto can’t hit anyone else, but he’s still Votto against the blue pinstripes, and they will never, ever get Eugenio Suarez out. It’s just not going to happen. Ever. Forget it.

-You can’t go any farther without talking about the pen again, and I’m going to harp on this until moves are made. There’s no point in bringing in Montgomery or Chatwood for merely one inning or just an out as it was on Friday with Monty. You barely have anyone to trust out there. Right now, I’d be using both, at least three times a week combined, to take over from the starter and see how far they can go. That limits the exposure of everyone else. Sure, Cishek is supposed to be the one you can trust right now, but he’s already overworked and well on his way to 70 appearances and an additional 174 times he warms up. Considering both Monty and Chatwood were stretched out, I don’t know why they can’t give you two to three innings three days apart each. It’s certainly time for creative solutions, unless you want more Brad Brach and Kyle Ryan in your life.

-That’s a mixed message with Darvish, who kept getting pulled early in the year to keep his confidence and yet sent out there for an eighth inning he clearly wasn’t prepared for. You know when a pitcher is emptying the tank, and that was in the 7th yesterday. Yes, the pen is a mess, but again, had they just closed out Friday with Monty and maybe on more, we aren’t here.

-It’s not going to happen for Carl Edwards.

-Daniel Descalso isn’t hitting, and then gave away a run because he can’t actually catch the ball. Solid signing here. Today he came up in his first AB and clearly wanted to go the opposite way, late on even breaking balls. His next AB he seemed determined to pull everything. He’s about as in between as you can get.

-And now maybe Bryant could have the concussion problems he has last year after getting beaned. This went well. Burn this tape.

Onwards for both…

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Twins: Destined To Do This…For Awhile

By Sam Fels 1511 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 23-26   Twins 33-16

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday and Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Saturday and Sunday

KIRK COUSINS’S PRISONERS: Twinkie Town

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Jose Berrios

TBD vs. Kyle Gibson

Dylan Covey vs. Jake Odorizzi

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Charlie Tilson – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Wellington Castillo – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yonder Alonso – DH

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

Max Kepler – DH

Jorge Polanco – SS

Marwin Gonzalez – RF

Eddie Rosario – LF

C.J. Cron – 1B

Miguel Sano – 3B

Jonathan Schoop – 2B

Jason Castro – C

Byron Buxton – CF

 

After four days with the class of the AL and coming out intact, if not with heads held high, the Sox traverse the length of the country (or width? Whatever, south to north) to see the team that’s knocking on the door to join that class. The Minnesota Twins are out by themselves in the AL Central, have the best winning-percentage in all of baseball, and along with the Astros have a +90 run-differential, best in the game by a distance.

How did they get here? By smashing the shit out of the baseball. The Twins lead the world in runs by 17, They’re second in the AL behind the Astros in average, on-base percentage, and lead everyone in slugging. They’ve done this while playing in one of the least hitter-friendly parks as well. In fact, it’s the worst in the American League and only trails Wrigley so far this year, with both benefitting from Winter Olympics conditions. Or suffering, take your pick.

Of all the regulars, the only soft spots are Marwin Gonzalez and  Hero Of Everymen Everywhere Willian Astudillo. Jason Castro and Mitch Garver have kept Astudillo third on the depth-chart most of the season, though Garver is hurt at the moment. But they’re getting hitting from everywhere, with Polanco vaulting himself into stardom, and squeezing power out of Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron. The former might not play this series but is about ready to come back from injury. It’s a tough lineup to traverse, if the Sox weren’t already tired from having to run the Astros gauntlet for four days.

But it’s not like the Twins don’t get pitching as well. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Martin Perez are all carrying ERAs of 3.30 or under and FIPs to back that up as not flukes. It’s not a huge strikeout staff but they don’t walk a lot of guys. They don’t get many grounders but in that park that’s not a huge problem. Gibson has had some homer problems but that’s mostly due to luck and will probably even out over the rest of the year, even as the weather warms up.

The pen is anchored by the continually grunting and sweaty Blake Parker, and no I don’t know how that works either but it does. Parker doesn’t strike that many out, walks too many, but gets out of it with a high groundball-rate and pure guts essentially. The main bridge to him is Taylor Rogers who is the strikeout dude back there. Ryne Harper and Matt Magill have also been highly effective.

Whereas Lucas Giolito got his shot at parading through a lineup of mutants and had maybe his best night in the majors last night, it’ll be Reynaldo Lopez’s turn tonight. It looks like another bullpen day on Saturday.

With the trajectories these teams are on, and the declines elsewhere, this could be the prologue to another few years of Twins-Sox arguments at the top of the Central. Which should lead to another batch of hilarious ads from Fox Sports North and an invasion of surprisingly annoying Twins fans whenever they’re on the Southside. And away we go.