Hockey

Game #52 – Hawks vs. Coyotes: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 961 0

Hawks

Notes: It looks like Strome is in for tonight but that won’t be confirmed until gametime. He’s been practicing and took the morning skate today…Colliton toyed with having Dach center Kane and Saad, which we are completely on board with, as long as the usage is correct…Gilbert was recalled after the break but Koekkoek has actually been ok on the third pairing so wouldn’t expect a change there…

Coyotes

 

Notes: The Yotes have a wealth of gametime decisions, as Demers, OEL, and Brad Richardson all could play, or all might not. OEL left the last game early, so he seems like the least likely of the trio but who knows?…Kuemper is definitely out so it’ll be Raanta tonight. He’s given up 15 in his last five appearances, and only two of them were full games. So he’s either been pulled or filling in…Keller has one point in his last nine…

Hockey

The Case For Not Re-Signing Robin Lehner

By Sam Fels 1937 0

This is something that probably will, and definitely should, go on the back-burner while the Hawks are in a playoff chase. There are more important issues and you don’t want the distraction. Which probably makes it more likely the Hawks, in their infinite wisdom, will ink Lehner to an extension before the end of the season, either to juice the buzz inside and outside the team as they try and chase down a spot or as a feel-good makeup when they fall short. You’ve already heard the push for it, and you know how they operate.

It shouldn’t be a priority at all. And it probably shouldn’t happen at all.

And it really doesn’t have much to do with Lehner. The simple numbers don’t add up. As of right now, the Hawks only have $10M in cap space for next season right now. With a minimal cap raise, maybe it’s $12M. There are a couple things the Hawks can do to open up more space, such as buying out Olli Maatta, which would only count about $800K against the cap next year. Maybe they actually do have a plan to deport Brent Seabrook into retirement/orbit, which obviously opens up another $6.8M. Do all those things, and the Hawks would suddenly have $22M. Hey, maybe Andrew Shaw retires and you get even more. If all those things happen, then re-signing Lehner makes some sense.

But it’s not that simple. Both Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik are due for big raises (and Caggiula might earn a small one). You would have to imagine they come in at at least $9M combined. If Lehner gets the $7M per year or more that he’s looking for, suddenly your $22M in space has become $6M in space, and you still need another d-man and at least one winger. And a backup goalie, and not just some stooge but one who can play 25-30 games because Lehner has never taken on a full starter’s load and that’s not really a thing teams are looking for these days.

Now, play this out differently. It would depend on how Corey Crawford finishes the season, so keep that in mind. But at 36, it’s unlikely that Crow is going to get more than the $6M he gets now, and it’s unlikely he’ll get more than a one- or two-year deal. Say you can Crow back for $4M, and then bring in someone like Cam Talbot for $3M-$4M (who has flourished in a partner/backup role this year). Now you’ve got two goalies for the same price as one Lehner, along with flexibility down the line which is not something the Hawks have had a lot of this past decade.

And maybe you’ve got space for a Tyson Barrie or Sami Vatanen or Toffoli or Kreider, which this team still needs. The only thing through the system that might join up next year and boost the team is Ian Mitchell, and that hardly seems a sure thing. Now if he signs and your top four is Keith, Mitchell, Boqvist, Murphy, that’s a nice start, but pushing Mitchell down do the third-pairing in his rookie year with de Haan is even better. And this team still needs one more winger, and might need another forward anywhere if they decide Kirby Dach’s presence makes Strome expendable (longshot but impossible).

As for Lehner himself, there seems to be a reason he’s on his fourth team. Or there should be, when he’s had exemplary seasons with each of the first three. He was traded from the Senators after after a step-back .905 SV% season, but that was after a .913. The Sabres let him walk after another .908, but that was after a .920. You know the story with the Islanders. And you know he’s not settling for another one-year deal.

Gone is the time when you can win with some stiff in net, and the Hawks were the last to do it in 2010 and there are still far too many around town who think that’s how things still work. So you can’t just ignore the position. However, you also have to have the team in front of it, and the Hawks aren’t going anywhere until they ask their goalies to do less than they are now. And it’s going to be awfully hard to do that paying Lehner what he wants and has pretty much earned now.

If the Hawks had more prospects coming through that would do that for cheap for years, then you could justify committing so much to one goalie. But they don’t. This is the way.

Baseball

There Seems To Be An Awful Lot Riding On Ian Happ

By Sam Fels 1728 0

I don’t know if center field was all that high on the wish list–emphasis on “wish”–of most Cubs fans when this offseason began. That’s before we really came to see how Scrooge-tastic the Ricketts would get this winter. The Cubs definitely needed another pitcher in the rotation (didn’t get it) and they needed an arm or two in the pen (maybe got it? Who the fuck knows?), but center field seemed an obvious hole as well.

And it’s still there.

A lot was focused on Nick Castellanos, which of course didn’t solve much about center. It would have pushed Jason Heyward to center a lot of time, or to the bench a lot of the time. That clearly didn’t happen, which leaves Heyward in right and…well, my only guess here is that the Cubs are wagering (or have been forced into wagering) that Ian Happ will grab the centerfield spot every day. Or that Steven Souza Jr. will light it up in Mesa and claim it, even though he needs a Razor to get around the space.

So that leaves in Happ. In theory, if Happ were to match his numbers from 2019’s cameo-plus appearance for a whole season, you probably wouldn’t notice Castellanos’s absence that much, especially if Heyward is only restricted to facing right-handed pitchers and puts up his 115 wRC+ from last year again. Remember, Happ’s final slash line was .264/.333/.564 for a 127 wRC+. That’s really good!

And defensively, he was actually not bad at all. Even good! If you go by the metrics, that is. +2.9 defensive runs, 32.2 UZR/150. Which we’d seen before, though on a lower scale, in his debut in 2017. It’s not ridiculous to think he could actually handle the position for the majority of the time.

Of course, there’s a caveat with Happ. A lot of his numbers came out of an incredible last week of the season, when the Cubs were already toast. In the last six games of the season, Happ went 10-for-22 (.454), with four homers, with a slugging of 1.136. It’s a nice week, but considering Happ was only up a couple months, it distorts things a bit. Without that week, he hit .228. He slugged .457, which isn’t bad obviously but isn’t near the season-finishing mark. And he still struck out a quarter of the time. That makes the question marks a lot bigger.

Again, the front office has probably been bullied into hopes on Happ. This isn’t part of the plan. They have no other choice. Still, if they were looking for hope, they’re probably looking to the guy who will stand to Happ’s right in left field for most of the season.

Like Happ, Schwarber had partial-season success after being called up, and quickly. Schwarber’s 2015 was over 69 games and Happ’s 2017 was over 115 games, so Happ was up for nearly twice as long. Still, immediate production. When Schwarber did get back into the lineup every day (after a knee injury which probably delayed development even more), he had at least a season and a half of scuffling, including his own demotion to Iowa. Of course, Schwarber’s boom was in the first half of 2018 instead of the second. And it was last year when Schwarber finally “popped,” with a 120 wRC+, including a 151 in the second half of the season. Now, Schwarber is a given.

Happ himself had two seasons of waywardness, and like Schwarber had a demotion to Iowa (which lasted much longer). The hope is that last week of the season was the sign something clicked, and he’s going to have his Schwarber coming out party from center this year. If he does…well, it solves a lot of the lineup questions and probably frees Ross up to bat Rizzo leadoff most of the time. Really it would only leave second base as a guess, and the thing is David Bote has been better than most think and Hoerner may grab it anyway.

But that’s an awful lot riding on one hot week when the chips were already counted. That’s the corner that the Cubs have been backed into by their owners.

Hockey

The Road Ahead

By Sam Fels 1711 0

Fair warning, I’ve just finished The Road by Cormac McCarthy so anything referencing a road might cause me to throw myself out the window in the middle of this blog. You’ll get to trace it though, so that’ll be fun.

The Hawks will return to practice tomorrow and then to game action on Saturday, and they really won’t get much of a chance to play their way back into top form. They’re still three points out of a playoff spot, with only Winnipeg to leap, but basically everyone in and around the wild card spots will play another game before the Hawks get back to it on Saturday night. Which means the Hawks will have games in hand on most, but those only matter if you win them.

So how does it stack up? Right now, the West’s last wildcard holder is on a 90-point pace (still very sad). The Hawks are on about an 87-point one, and it took them winning 11 of 16 to even get to that. So to get to 90 points, the Hawks will need 36 points from 31 games, which would be a 95-point pace. And that’s if you believe that the target won’t arc up a bit, which you would think it would just a touch.

You would be tempted to go through the schedule, but that’s kind of folly for hockey because individual games come up weird. Your goalie has a bad night or theirs has a great night or you hit three posts in a period or something. As you look at it now, February does look like it’s a good runway, as the only games against the league’s glitterati are one against St. Louis, one against Boston at home, and one against Tampa. The rest are either against teams the Hawks are around in the standings are also-rans like the Ducks or Rangers. Essentially the Hawks have it all in front of them this month. They can play their way right into the thick of it or they can play themselves right out of it.

March looks even tastier, with the Ducks, Wings, Sharks, Senators, two against the Wild, Kings, and Canadiens all on the docket mixed in with tougher games. That’s the kind of slate you’d like when you’re competing for something, especially as some of those teams if not all will be stripped for parts by then.

So can the Hawks keep this pace up? We’d like to see things trending that way, so let’s et graphical!

Here are the rolling five-game averages for their CF% (blue) and xG% (red):

So those are going up. Their xG% ends at 53% and has been in the upper 40s for the last seven, but have been under 45% most of the season. Their average Corsi has been over 50% for the past nine. Again, small samples but at least trending the right way in five-game averages. They’ll have to keep going to get to the 90-point mark.

Of course, with the Hawks it’s about their defense. So here’s their five-game rolling average of Corsi against per 60:

And their xGA/60 rolling five game aveage:

Again, trending down, which is good. Still, since December 1st, when the Hawks have picked up their games somewhat, they rank 26th in Corsi against at evens and 30th in xGA/60 against. So their trendlines might just be part of a league-wide belt-tightening, which we see every season as scoring goes down as the season goes on and people don’t care as much. The numbers are no better from January 1st on, so it’s hard to see how the Hawks can be this bad defensively and remain competing for the playoffs. They’ll need those trendlines to continue to go the ways they have been the past couple weeks, let’s say.

Still, as we said before the break, there’s probably a Debrincat binge waiting, and the power play will spasm a good couple weeks you’d think for no reason other than HOCKEY! So it’s hardly out of the question the Hawks can defy their defensive averages or rates a little longer.

Baseball

Bryant Loses Grievance, Cubs Now Able To Shoot Themselves In The Face

By Sam Fels 2136 0

I wouldn’t pretend to know the ins and outs of a grievance arbitration or fancy lawyer talk (I leave that to Beverly Brewmaster and whenever he talks about it I just fall asleep), so maybe these kinds of things do need to take years to finish. That seems ridiculous, and even people who are at least adjacent to those in the know seemed flabbergasted by the whole Kris Bryant grievance taking this long. Especially when the outcome was pretty clear, because these are the rules of the CBA. And so it came to pass yesterday that Bryant lost the grievance, which we all knew he would. Which means that Bryant won’t be a free agent until 2021, which is when the Cubs have decided that the world will end because they want it to.

I don’t know that Bryant’s loss changes anything anywhere, other than these few things. One, no one else will try it now. Two, this will be changed in the next CBA. Three, it’s going to release a bunch of new trade rumors. This wasn’t about Bryant being bitter towards the Cubs, because exactly no one has said that, and Bryant has in fact said quite the opposite. This was just the time and place to try and draw a line in the sand for Scott Boras, because it was just so obvious what the Cubs were doing in 2015. Remember, this is a Hall of Fame caliber player the Cubs kept down for three weeks to “work on his defense.” You can’t get more clear. If there was ever a chance for Boras and other agents to open the floodgates early, this was it. They took their shot.

So now this mess. Already we’re hearing that the Cubs and Rockies have talked about a straight Bryant-for-Arenado swap. Some don’t seem to see what the Rockies would get out of that. At this rate, Arenado is not sticking around for more than the two years before his opt-out, and that’s even if they can make nice at spring training to smooth out their bullshit from the winter. So the Rockies would get the better player for cheaper for two years.

Don’t believe me that Bryant is better? Chuck your recency bias into an alley dumpster. Bryant has played two less seasons than Arenado and has been worth slightly less than four WAR. Arenado is the better defender for sure, but Bryant is the better overall player. Arenado has never produced a 6+ WAR season. Bryant has three. Shove it.

So if the Cubs were to do that…well it doesn’t make any goddamn sense unless they were sure Arenado would never use that opt-out (or bought it out) and they get a fixed cost on a player who’s still really damn good (though not exactly sure of what they’d get from him at sea level).

We still hear about the Braves, but I don’t know why the Braves would feel the need. They’re already clear favorites to win the division with the Nats losing Rendon and having no idea who their rotation will bounce back from going the route. There’s no lineup that can guarantee October success (ask the Dodgers and Astros about that one) and the Braves pitching is their problem in that they don’t have a clear, you’re-fucking-done ace. Maybe Soroka is that one day but not striking out less than a hitter an inning he’s not.

The Rangers don’t have anything the Cubs want. Neither do the Nats. Neither do the Phillies. The Dodgers probably do but they don’t need him either and they’re not going to give you what you really want from them (Lux, May, others) because they simply don’t have to. They’re going to walk to that division again and enter as overwhelming favorites again.

Which brings us to yesterday’s curiosity, which is the leak from Jesse Rogers and David Kaplan, organizational stooges if there ever were, that there was no mandate from ownership that the Cubs get under the luxury tax threshold to start the season. Which would seem pretty fucking weird considering the offseason the Cubs have had, the last two in fact, but they definitely have been told to be in range of it should the season go balls-up and they can start unloading everything.

Which is seemingly what the Cubs want. They’ve done their best to anger Anthony Rizzo, and Bryant, and maybe even Contreras. There’s still no extension for Baez. So maybe they’re hoping the team quits on ownership and the front office? This is something out of Major League.

I doubt it’ll happen. If nothing else, these players love playing together, or at least used to. They’ve just hired a manager they’re clearly all going to at least respond to, if not run through a wall for. And the division while maybe improved a touch, though that’s debatable, hasn’t gotten away from them.

If the Cubs go in as is, they have holes, but they also have a lineup that can ball-out for a few months at a time and has done, at least three good starters with a fourth (Lester) who can surprise, and a pen that can’t possibly be worse and has some candidates to surprise. Maybe the Ricketts are rooting for it, but there’s very little chance this team is going to be 10 games back come July 31st unless they are torn asunder by injuries.

And maybe one thing we can get behind, as disenchanting as these two offseasons have been, is the actual Cubs roster going on a FUCK YOU WORLD TOUR to spite their bosses. It’s still a very easy roster to root for.

-Right, couple signings to discuss, which are definitely the boom or bust kind. This one’s weird, because right after the season the Cubs couldn’t stop bleating about needing more contact and less strikeouts, two things Souza doesn’t provide even when he was healthy. He can barely patrol center field, which you wouldn’t want him doing more than as a support role. So that’s right field for Heyward against lefties you would think. And he’s struck out against lefties 30% of the time, though provided some pop as well. The last time he was healthy, three years ago now, he hit lefties well. But this is a flier, which is where the Cubs are.

-Jeremy Jeffress is the other signing, and the Cubs again are hoping health is the main issue here and not just natural decline. Jeffress lost nearly two MPH on his fastball last year, which saw his hard-contact rates ballon and lose the ground-ball rates too. He’s not the 10+ K/9 guy he was two seasons ago, as that’s something of an outlier, But if he’s not getting grounders to go along with his decent K-rate, he’s just this side of “bum.” He did have some injury issues last year and only made 48 appearances at the MLB level when he’d routinely been around 60 or more. Again, doesn’t cost you anything, could be a boom, but more likely a nothing. But again, this is the way of the Cubs now.

 

Hockey

Clearly I Remember Picking on the Boy: Re-Evaluating Jeremy Colliton

By John Pullega 2458 0

The Blackhawks were on their biggest tear of the year before the break. They won five of their last six and 12 of their last 18, with 10 of those 12 wins coming in regulation. During their five-game winning streak, four of the five wins were definitive, with just one win against the lowly Senators coming in overtime. That put the Hawks within three points of the last wild card spot (as of this writing). Hope abounds.

What, if anything, has Jeremy Colliton had to do with it?

We ask this question because we’ve been harsh on him all year. The organ-I-zation, beat writers, and even some of us (read: me) entered the year with a “Give him a training camp” attitude. When Colliton and his Crew came out of camp at 3-5-2—or seven losses in 10 games, because getting a point for losing is horseshit—it became clear that the “magic training camp” wasn’t really a thing, and we lost our asses.

Since then, the results have been hot and cold. A four-win streak followed by a 1-5-1 streak. Two extra-time wins followed by an 0-3-1. Each losing streak complemented with a “We need more effort” from their one-time wunderkind. Is he getting that effort now, or is he just getting out of his own way? I wanted to know, so now we’re going to do this together.

We’ll break this season into two parts: opening day through December 14 (33 games total), and December 15 through now (18 games). All of the Big Blackhawks Media have taken a liking to using December 15 as a touchpoint, and so we will do that, too. We’ll look primarily at high-level counting stats (goals for, goals allowed), team analytics (CF%, GF% vs. xGF%), and any big changes in personnel that Colliton had direct control over (line combos and TOI but NOT NECESSARILY individual player performance).

The Numbers

Team Stats 5v5 Goals For Goals Allowed GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 58 69 45.67 60.81 47.56
12/15–Now 47 39 54.65 47.35 49.33

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Wouldn’t you know it, over the recent nice stretch, the Hawks have outscored their opponents, rather than getting outscored like they were at the beginning of the year. We’ve solved it, thanks for reading.

What’s fascinating is the why behind the goals. The Hawks are scoring goals at a nearly 9% higher rate over the last 18 games. And look at the difference between the xGF%s.

Quick aside, xGF% stands for expected goals for percentage. The important thing to know about it is that it measures shot quality (e.g., a point shot is typically lower quality than a shot off a rebound) and uses that to try to predict the likelihood of an actual goal scored.

So, the inversion of GF% and xGF% between the two time frames sure is curious. The Hawks should have scored more than they did during the first time frame, and they’re now scoring more than they should during this second time frame. Why?

Part of it is strength of schedule. Through today, the Hawks have had a slightly more challenging schedule than most other teams, based on points percentages. Another part of it is PDO. For the first time frame, the Hawks’s PDO was an even 1.000. From December 15 onward, the Hawks’s PDO is 1.024, good for fourth overall in the league. The difference has been the Hawks’s shooting percentage, which has skyrocketed from around 7% all the way up to 10%.

But these aren’t things Colliton can really control. What he CAN control for the most part is which players get the most ice time.

ATOI Rank 10/04–12/14 TTOI ATOI 12/15–Now TTOI ATOI
1 Keithⴕ (25) 456:24 18:16 Keithⴕ (17) 308:48 18:10
2 Murphyⴕ (21) 365:40 17:25 Murphy (18) 324:07 18:01
3 Kane (33) 555:49 16:50 Gus (18) 303:45 16:53
4 de Haanⴕ (29) 485:19 16:44 Kane (18) 290:55 16:10
5 Gus (32) 530:46 16:35 Maatta (17) 262:55 15:28
6 Maattaⴕ (29) 457:15 15:46 Boqvist (17) 244:25 14:23
7 Seabrook (31) 483:09 15:35 Toews (18) 245:40 13:39
8 Cat (33) 464:22 14:04 Dach (18) 236:15 13:08
9 Toews (33) 442:30 13:25 Kubalik (18) 230:13 12:47
10 Stromeⴕ (29) 386:31 13:20 Cat (18) 229:34 12:45
11 Saad (33) 423:34 12:50 Carp (18) 213:51 11:53
12 Kampf (33) 384:48 11:40 Kampf (18) 200:54 11:10

ⴕ = suffered injury at some point during stretch. Stats calculated using NaturalStatTrick.com

The biggest difference between then and now is the emergence of Kubalik and Dach in terms of how much they’re playing. (Boqvist too, but he’s had only half the time of the other two, so let’s revisit him at the end of the year.) Since December 15, Kubalik and Dach have averaged almost two full minutes more of ice time apiece. They’ve also established themselves on what you could call the top six, if you look at the line up as follows over the last 18 games:

Kubalik–Toews–Caggiula/Kane

DeBrincat–Dach–Kampf/Kane

Saad–Carpenter–Kane

Nylander–Smith–Highmore/Caggiula

Though Kane has averaged slightly less ice time during the latest run, Colliton still likes to double shift him whenever he can, which you can see as a function of his 5v5 average time on ice. Because Kane has superhuman endurance and has consistently outperformed his xGF% throughout his career, it’s hard to blame him. But more encouraging is that Dach and Kubalik are getting chances that they weren’t at the beginning of the year. It may have taken him longer than we’d have liked, but Colliton has gotten that right recently.

This implies that with more time and the right teammates, Colliton has begun to give what portends to be The New Core the chance to try shit. You might recall Kubalik getting scratched a few times earlier in the season for simply unfathomable reasons. This trend ceased around the second week in December, or just prior to Kubalik’s scoring binge. Just check out the differences between the time frames:

Kubalik Goals Assists GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 6 3 50 53.68 50.22
12/15–Now 11 5 57.14 49.93 51.39

5v5 from NaturalStatTrick.com

Though you likely don’t need a fucking chart to tell you that Dominik Kubalik is not a third liner, there it is. Kubalik is starting to do what most good shooters do: pot shots that shouldn’t be going in. Colliton coming to Jesus on that has been helpful to the Hawks’s recent success, even if it took him way too long to get there.

It’s a similar story for Kirby Dach, though much more subtle.

Dach Goals Assists GF% xGF% CF%
10/04–12/14 5 4 47.83 43.8 46.32
12/15–Now 2 1 56.25 47.54 49.45

5v5 from NaturalStatTrick.com

The counting stats are down, but the fancy stats have gotten better as Dach has both settled in and settled into a more defensively responsible role. Granted, he’ll need to up the offense, but credit Colliton for giving Dach more time as the year has progressed.

The Penalty Kill

The Hawks have the sixth-best penalty kill in the league as of this writing. Given how horrible their blue has been and continues to be, this may not make a ton of sense. But the numbers on this make it pretty easy to figure out why.

First, here are the splits between the time frames:

PK% PK Rank PK SV% PK HDSV% PK TIME
10/04–12/14 80.4 14th 87.93 77.55 175:59
12/15–Now 88.6 1st 92.31 94.12 77:39

From NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.com

A couple things to note. First, the Hawks are currently taking fewer penalty minutes during the recent run. At the current pace, if you extrapolate what they’ve been doing, the Hawks will end up taking about 141 penalty minutes over the same time frame (33 games) going forward. That’s about 34 fewer minutes on the kill, or 17 fewer minor penalties.

But this doesn’t explain the huge spikes in save percentages. Some of that has to do with Crawford’s horrid performance in the first half of the year. In the second half, Colliton has leaned more on Lehner, who has been nails on the PK all year. So, we can give Colliton credit for that.

But the answer is much easier than even that. Here are all of Hawks who have averaged at least one minute of PK time per game, along with their respective goals allowed per 60 (GA/60).

ATOI GA/60
Murphy 2:43 5
de Haan 2:41 5.5
Keith 2:37 6
Carpenter 2:24 5.5
Kampf 2:10 6.5
Toews 1:58 5.3
Maatta 1:51 5.6
Saad 1:50 6.7
Seabrook 1:31 11.2
Smith 1:14 6.6
Gilbert 1:13 4.9
Koekkoek 1:12 8.5

From hockey-reference.com

The NHL average for GA/60 usually falls between 5 and 6. Brent Seabrook’s 11.2 is simply horrifying, especially when you see that he averaged a minute and a half on the PK when he was still playing.

In fact, according to hockey-reference.com, of players who averaged at least one minute of PK time and who played at least 10 games, only the following were worse:

To give you an idea for what that means, everyone on that list aside from de la Rose (STL from DET) and Lindblom (who played with fucking bone cancer) belongs to one of the seven worst PK units in the league.

So, simply getting Seabrook off the PK likely had the greatest effect on its success, and his last game was on December 15. The defense still blows, but without Seabrook, it blows less.

Conclusion

Essentially, Colliton has done two things to change the team during this hot stretch:

    1. Healthy-scratched Seabrook three times, causing him to need two hip surgeries and one shoulder surgery
    2. Played Dach, Kubalik, and Boqvist more and higher on the depth chart

 

Getting Seabrook off the ice is probably the thing Colliton has done that’s had the greatest effect. We can argue about how he never really communicated with Seabrook about the scratches and how that’s shitty given Seabrook’s legendary status overall. But it’s obviously better for the team that Seabrook is off the ice, and Colliton clearly had a hand in that decision making. That’s a big move that he could have handled better, but a big move nonetheless.

You can credit him for playing Dach and Boqvist and letting them get their feet wet. Dach has taken to it better than Boqvist so far.

It’s hard to give him too much credit for promoting Kubalik, since he’s always shown that he belongs in the Top 6. You can’t help but wonder whether this scoring purge would have happened sooner had Colliton not dicked around with him so he could slot Nylander with Toews earlier in the year.

In short, Colliton’s contributions to this recent run of success amount to finally putting and keeping Kubalik on the top line, scratching his biggest anchor, and getting elite performances from elite players.

Patrick Kane is on a tear. Jonathan Toews has been on fire with Kubalik, who’s doing exactly what everyone but Jeremy Colliton thought he would do at the beginning of the year. Robin Lehner continues to play Vezina-level hockey. This is sort of what they’ve always done, even before Colliton.

Scratching Seabrook and elevating Kubalik were past-due epiphanies that clearly helped the team. Those are steps in the right direction. But his system still sucks, as shown by the fact that the Hawks are in the top 10 for both goals allowed (10th) and save percentage (6th). Until he fixes that latter part, it’s hard to totally buy in.

Everything Else

The Legacy of Kobe: Nuance and the Black Mamba

By Tony Martin 6339 0

Kobe was a world class athlete, and a rapist. Kobe was one of the greatest basketball players on and off the court, and he was a rapist. Kobe learned foreign languages so he could speak to players on the court in their own languages, and he was also a rapist.

Nuance is important, but it doesn’t erase the experiences of the person he victimized. I’m both a huge basketball fan and a sexual assault survivor and I think it’s important to at least consider acknowledging both parts of him as a person so we can learn and grow- that we can choose how much of his sexual assault we use to define his legacy.

I think it’s pretty cool and speaks to how far we’ve come as a global society that people haven’t forgotten that night in Colorado when discussing his legacy, like we’ve done so many times in the past with famous people like Gandhi, who objectively sexually victimized young women and was also racist.

I want to be a sports fan that exists in a larger context of a world where sports fans don’t forgive rapists no matter how good they are. That means holding people’s legacy like Kobe up as a constant reminder that your past SHOULD stay with you.

I teach in schools that are composed of primarily students of color, and Kobe is to them what MJ was to old heads like us, his legacy is important and erasing what he did on the court to focus on his misdeeds shows young people that what they place value on in an athlete’s life (what they do on the court/field/ice) isn’t important. When they hear that, you lose their interest and they no longer have the chance to hear you plead with them to be better than those that came before them.

Saturday night, hours before the story broke, a Chicago comedian said during their standup set (within the context of Ronald Reagan granting amnesty to undocumented immigrants including their Latinx family) that “it’s possible to accept gifts from people that you know are pieces of shit”- and I think it’s true. Kobe was a piece of shit that night in Colorado, AND I spent my teens and twenties watching him hoop. Watching him play made me very happy- him being a rapist doesn’t change that. Maybe it should have. Similarly, people in India cast off British rule with the help of a racist that sexually assaulted young women in his family.

Rapists can do good things for people, but they’re still rapists. Nuance is important.

Maybe in this moment we can have a cultural discussion about legacy and it can help the next generation of soon to be entitled dudes recognize that no matter how good your turnaround jumper/film script/standup special/debut album/novel is, you can’t rape. I’ve legitimately taught some boys who have a jumper that could take them to the pros someday, shit I taught Fred VanVleet World History in 2008. These kids that are mourning the death of a legendary athlete need to see the nuance, they need to see all of it, and they need to be taught that what they take pride in or are good at is just as valuable to the world as them being good human beings and that they need both to have a legacy we can all celebrate.

Hockey

High On The Hog: Milwaukee Is Loaded

By Jon Fromi 1628 0

The Rockford IceHogs faced the best team in the AHL twice this weekend. They were soundly defeated in both tilts.

Following Saturday’s game, the league went on its All-Star break. Rockford’s equipment managers should take the impending free time to sew a patch onto the IceHogs sweaters.

One that reads “Property Of The Milwaukee Admirals”.

Milwaukee has been outstanding through 45 games this season. They sport a 31-8-4-2 mark and a .756 points percentage. They now sit atop the AHL with 68 standings points, nine more than any other team in the league.

The Ads boast the best goalie tandem in the league, with Connor Ingram and Troy Grosenick combining for a 2.16 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Combined with the AHL’s top power play (25.7%), the league’s sixth-best offensive output (3.36 goals per game) and a fast-paced, aggressive brand of hockey, Milwaukee is taking it to the opposition on a nightly basis.

Rockford has faced off with the Admirals seven times since the first meeting of the teams this season on December 7. In those games, the IceHogs have gone 1-6 and been outscored 26-12. The lone win came on December 10; all Kevin Lankinen had to do that night was make 55 saves to propel Rockford to a 2-1 overtime victory.

The last three confrontations with Milwaukee have resulted in three-goal losses, including both games this past weekend. Following a physical affair in Milwaukee Friday, Hogs coach Derek King was left without a full set of forwards. Even with rookie Tim Soderlund returning to the lineup, King iced ten healthy forwards, used defenseman Ben Youds as a forward and went with seven defensemen.

The Admirals had no issues using their depth advantage this weekend. Milwaukee camped out in high-danger scoring areas and whaled away at Rockford goalies Collin Delia and Kevin Lankinen. Both saw their goals against average rise thanks to Milwaukee.

I’ll attempt resembling a broken record, but the All-Star break comes at a good time for the Hogs. Somehow, they have to get healthier and in a new mindset following a span in which they have lost 14 of their last 17 games.

Rockford gets back at it with two games at home this coming weekend. The piglets host Manitoba on Friday night, followed by a Saturday contest with…you guessed it…the Admirals Juggernaut.

 

Roster Happenings

On Saturday, Rockford sent goalie Chase Marchand, who they have on an AHL deal, back to the Indy Fuel of the ECHL.

Phillipp Kurashev, Mikael Hakkarainen, Anton Wedin and Matthew Thompson continue to be unavailable due to injury. John Quenneville sat out the weekend as well.

Alexandre Fortin, Dylan McLaughlin and Peter Quenneville were all scratches on Saturday.

 

Recaps

Friday, January 24-Milwaukee 7, Rockford 4

Rockford picked up the scoring but couldn’t keep the Ads out of the net, opening the weekend home-and-home series with a loss.

The IceHogs snapped a seven-game scoreless streak early in the game. Dylan Sikura took a shot at goal nine seconds into a Rockford power play. His offering glanced off the stick of Milwaukee’s Jared Tinordi and sailed by Ads goalie Troy Grosenick 3:39 into the game for a 1-0 Hogs lead.

Milwaukee answered on their first man advantage a few minutes later. Alexadre Carrier set up Frederick Gaudreau at the left circle for a one-timer that beat Rockford goalie Collin Delia to the cord. The goal tied the game 1-1 6:15 into the first.

The Ads took a 3-1 advantage after Mathieu Olivier and Mikka Salomakki got pucks past Delia at 10:59 and 14:54, respectively. Rockford would close the gap to 3-2 late in the period on MacKenzie Entwistle’s power play goal. The breakaway attempt was set up by a finely-threaded pass from Nicolas Beaudin. Entwistle skated across the crease and backhanded the puck over Grosenick.

Milwaukee ran out to a 5-2 lead after Gaudreau and Eeli Tolvanen hit on power play markers 20 seconds apart in the opening 67 seconds of the middle frame. The Hogs climbed back into the contest with a pair of their own.

Chad Krys found the back of the net from the blueline at the 4:56 mark to close to within two goals. Three minutes later, the power play came up big for the third time in the game. This time, Brandon Hagel put back a rebound of Gabriel Gagne’s shot 8:34 into the period to cut the Milwaukee lead to 5-4.

The Admirals went up 6-4 following some nifty passing that ended with Rem Pitlick knocked in Tolvanen’s pass at the right post at the 14:50 mark. Milwaukee stretched the lead to 7-4 on Daniel Carr’s goal 4:33 into the third period.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Nick Moutrey-Reese Johnson-Joseph Cramarossa

Brandon Hagel-Jacob Nilsson-MacKenzie Entwistle

Dylan Sikura-Tyler Sikura (C)-Gabriel Gagne

Alexandre Fortin-Peter Quenneville-Dylan McLaughlin

Chad Krys-Dennis Gilbert

Joni Tuulola-Lucas Carlsson

Nicolas Beaudin-Ian McCoshen (A)

Collin Delia

Kevin Lankinen

Power Play (3-8)

Carlsson-Hagel-D. Sikura-Gagne-Nilsson

Beaudin-McLaughlin-Entwistle-T. Sikura-Fortin

Penalty Kill (Milwaukee was 3-7)

Forwards: Nilsson-Johnson-Moutrey-Fortin-T. Sikura

Defense: Tuulola-Gilbert-Krys-McCoshen

 

Saturday, January 25-Milwaukee 5, Rockford 2

The IceHogs dropped the back half of the home-and-home, losing to the Admirals at the BMO Harris Bank Center.

Rockford opened the scoring as they had the previous evening, on the power play. MacKenzie Entwistle got inside position on his defender and was on hand to send the rebound of Ben Youds shot attempt past Admirals goalie Connor Ingram. At 10:09, the piglets owned a 1-0 lead.

From that point on, Milwaukee took over. Eeli Tolvanen tied the game at the 11:42 mark with a put back in front of Hogs goalie Kevin Lankinen. Michael McCarron’s presence in the crease yielded a pair of goals in the second period to stake the Admirals to a 3-1 lead through 40 minutes.

Milwaukee pressed its advantage in the final frame, with Tanner Jeannot and Daniel Carr finding the back of the net midway through the third. Rockford picked up a late goal at the 18:30 mark when Tyler Sikura redirected a Chad Krys blast from the point.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Rockford employed seven defensemen tonight and skated an eighth (Ben Youds) as a forward.

Dylan Sikura-Tyler Sikura (C)-Gabriel Gagne

Brandon Hagel-Jacob Nilsson-MacKenzie Entwistle

Nick Moutrey-Reese Johnson-Joseph Cramarossa

Tim Soderlund-Ben Youds

Dennis Gilbert-Ian McCoshen (A)

Joni Tuulola-Lucas Carlsson

Dmitri Osipov-Nicolas Beaudin-Chad Krys

Kevin Lankinen

Matt Tomkins

Power Play (1-4)

Carlsson-Hagel-D. Sikura-Gagne-Nilsson

Beaudin-Soderlund-Entwistle-T. Sikura-Youds

Penalty Kill (Milwaukee was 1-4)

Forwards: Nilsson-Johnson-Moutrey-Cramarossa-Soderlund-T. Sikura

Defense: Tuulola-Gilbert-Krys-McCoshen

Follow me on twitter @JonFromi for updates on the IceHogs throughout the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Football

Season Review – Matt Nagy – Be You? Well, You Kinda Suck.

By Brian Schmitz 2076 0

Just when I thought I learned all I could about Matt Nagy this past season, I watched the 49ers playoff win again the Packers and was given yet another reason why I think this guy is a legit fraud. Case in point: In a post-game news conference, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was asked about his play calling and therein, the lack of pass attempts. Shanahan’s response was as unselfish as it was honest:

“‘Cause it was working,” Shanahan said of calling run play after run play. “If it’s working you stay with it. Our guys were running so hard. Our line coming out the ball, our backs. All eleven of our guys how they’ve been all year. The guys fought hard as heck. We’re going to put it all in their hands.”

When I heard this, I immediately thought to myself: “Self, this is a guy who is confident enough in himself that he isn’t trying to prove himself to everyone. This something we are never going to hear from Matt Nagy.”

The reason why is because Matt Nagy needs to be cute, needs to be the guy who is changing the game, needs the attention and admiration.

Shanahan doesn’t. He was born into the coaching game and realizes it isn’t about the guy calling the calls, it’s about the guys on the field. If running the ball gives you the best chance at winning, then you run the shit outta that ball. Shanahan saw his dad do this, relying on Terrell Davis all the way to back to back World Championships. Sure, he had John Elway under center, but at that point, John Elway, while very good, was a shell of his former self. Think more game-manager than game-changer.

But you didn’t come here to read about Elway or the 90’s Bronco’s. You want to hear yet another reason why Nagy has failed the Chicago Bears this season. The Shanahan quote and comparison is simply the cherry on top of the Matt Nagy May Not Be Cut Out For This Shit Sundae.

Nagy is guy who constantly is trying to prove himself – something he has done often in his football playing career. He has always been a try hard guy; constantly being told No, but always asking and trying again. This mentality has served him very well in getting to this point, but now, in his current role, it can be viewed as counterproductive. Nagy is trying to prove himself as this game changing offensive mastermind – the RPO CFO if you will – and is being blinded by his own aspirations.

So, would a Nagy offense that focused more on the run game made a difference between a 10 wins and 8 wins this past season? No. But that’s not the point. The point is adjustments needs to be made on almost a play by play basis. Throw away your scripted first 10 plays – run the plays that will give you the best chance to win, regardless of if they are on a play sheet or if it is run or pass.

As fans, we often take a micro look to on field performance. A run play didn’t work? Oh, that player must suck. A QB throws an interception? He blows, put in the backup. However, if you take a more macro look at Bears offensive struggles in 2019, a majority of the blame needs to be placed at the feet of the Head Football Coach, Matt Nagy. The offensive talent on this team was never put in a position to succeed – that’s on him.

The 2020 Bears will be better, but only if their coach and leader takes a look inside himself and realizes…it’s not about him.

Final Grade – D

 

Hockey

High On The Hog: Blanked

By Jon Fromi 1365 0

The offensive woes of the Rockford IceHogs were on full display this week. Twice the piglets took to the BMO Harris Bank Center ice. Twice they came away with nothing.

The Blackhawks AHL affiliate was beaten Monday afternoon by Belleville, then dropped a Wednesday night decision to Texas. The IceHogs were shut out in both contests.

The last time a Rockford squad was held scoreless two games in a row came in March 25 and 28 of 2017, when Grand Rapids and Iowa held the Hogs without a goal. That season, a dismal IceHogs team averaged a league-worst 2.30 goals per game.

Over Rockford’s last 15 games, the team is scoring at a 1.53 goals per game clip. The Hogs have been shut out three times and held to a single goal four times during that span.

Wednesday’s loss to the Stars left the IceHogs with a 20-21-1-1 mark, good for sixth place in the AHL’s Central Division. With 42 points and a .488 points percentage, Rockford is still right there in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Hogs are still within reach of the Stars, Chicago and Grand Rapids with 33 games remaining on the schedule. They’ve just picked a poor time to be spinning their tires.

 

Roster News

Dennis Gilbert and Brandon Hagel have been doing the I-90 shuffle this week, taking part in both games for the Hogs between trips to Chicago. Both should be with Rockford through the weekend’s games with Milwaukee.

On Wednesday, Nathan Noel was sent back to the Indy Fuel. Spencer Watson was released from his PTO and returned to the Fuel as well.

 

Tomkins Signs NHL Contract

Matt Tomkins was a hard luck loser against Texas, stopping 30 shots and coming out on the short end of a 1-0 score. On Thursday, it was announced that the goalie had signed a two-year contract with the Blackhawks.

Tomkins, Chicago’s seventh-round pick in the 2012 NHL Draft, toiled for the Fuel for most of his first two pro seasons while on an AHL deal with Rockford. He’s been with the IceHogs for the bulk of this season, save for his stint with Team Canada in the Spengler Cup.

Tomkins is currently the team leader in goals against average (2.45) and save percentage (.916), though he has just nine starts on the season. Collin Delia has been playing well of late, shutting out the Wolves Sunday afternoon in his latest start. Kevin Lankinen, who was the Hogs best goalie in the early going and is Rockford’s representative in the AHL All Star Classic, has struggled a bit in the last month.

The three-man net takes on a different perspective with this signing. The Blackhawks now have three NHL prospects at the goalie position in Rockford. It’s hard not to imagine one of those goalies being dealt at the trade deadline to create more development time for the other two. For now, Hogs coach Derek King will have to find time for all three players.

 

Recaps

Monday, January 20-Belleville 3, Rockford 0

Belleville broke open the game in the third period to hand the Hogs the loss.

Josh Norris scored on the power play 3:36 into the second period for a 1-0 Senators advantage. Two goals early in the third period spelled doom for Rockford. Alex Formenton lit the lamp 2:49 into the final frame. Three minutes later, Joseph LaBate got his attempt by IceHogs goalie Kevin Lankinen to close out the scoring.

Rockford was 0-4 on the man advantage. The Hogs got 23 shots on goal, all stopped by Belleville goalie Filip Gustavsson. Lankinen stopped 26 of 29 shots on the afternoon.

Lines (Starters in italics)

John Quenneville-Jacob Nilsson (A)-Brandon Hagel

Dylan Sikura-Tyler Sikura (C)-Gabriel Gagne

Joseph Cramarossa-MacKenzie Entwistle-Alexandre Fortin

Nick Moutrey-Reese Johnson-Peter Quenneville

Joni Tuulola-Lucas Carlsson

Nicolas Beaudin-Ian McCoshen (A)

Chad Krys-Dennis Gilbert

Kevin Lankinen

Collin Delia

 

Wednesday, January 22-Texas 1, Rockford 0 

Rockford was shut out for the second game in a row wasting a terrific performance by goalie Matt Tomkins.

After a scoreless opening period, Texas took a 1-0 lead on a goal by Riley Tufte at 4:25 of the middle frame. The Stars prospect took the biscuit away from Rockford’s Jacob Nilsson, skated to the front of the net and sent a backhand past Tomkins.

That would be the only mark in this contest. Tomkins wound up with 30 saves in a losing effort, but the Stars Landon Bow turned away all 29 shots the Hogs threw at him.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Brandon Hagel-Jacob Nilsson (A)-MacKenzie Entwistle

Dylan Sikura-Tyler Sikura (C)-Gabriel Gagne

Alexandre Fortin-Peter Quenneville-Dylan McLaughlin

Nick Moutrey-Reese Johnson-Joseph Cramarossa

Chad Krys-Dennis Gilbert

Joni Tuulola-Lucas Carlsson

Ian McCoshen (A)-Ben Youds

Matt Tomkins

Collin Delia

 

Admirals Weekend

The IceHogs have a big home-and-home with first-place Milwaukee coming up this weekend. Friday’s tilt is in Milwaukee, with the two teams returning to the BMO on Saturday.

Follow me @JonFromi for thoughts on the IceHogs throughout the season.